@article{HaileKalkuhlAlgierietal.2017, author = {Haile, Mekbib Gebretsadik and Kalkuhl, Matthias and Algieri, Bernardina and Gebreselassie, Samuel}, title = {Price shock transmission}, series = {Agricultural economics}, volume = {48}, journal = {Agricultural economics}, number = {6}, publisher = {Wiley}, address = {Hoboken}, issn = {0169-5150}, doi = {10.1111/agec.12373}, pages = {769 -- 780}, year = {2017}, abstract = {This study assesses the degree of vertical price transmission along the wheat-bread value chain in Ethiopia. This is pursued by applying a vector error correction model and an impulse response analysis using monthly price data for the period 2000-2015. Our analysis considers transmission of price shocks across different market levels, including from the international and domestic wheat grain markets at the upstream to the domestic wheat bread market at the downstream of the value chain. The empirical findings indicate that significant cointegration exists across prices of the different market stages. There is a transmission from international prices to domestic prices at downstream markets, in particular to flour and bread prices. Prices at upstream markets are largely influenced by the domestic wholesale market. In general, the speed of adjustment is quite slow with a half-life of about one year for restoring the equilibrium price relationship. As price margins between the different market stages in the value chain have substantially decreased in the last 15 years, higher transmission, and thus exposure to international market shocks, can be expected in the future. The results also show that causal relationships exist between prices at different market stageswith the wholesale market identified as the key market level where prices and price expectations are formed.}, language = {en} } @article{KornherKalkuhl2019, author = {Kornher, Lukas and Kalkuhl, Matthias}, title = {The gains of coordination - When does regional cooperation for food security make sense?}, series = {Global Food Security - AGRICULTURE POLICY ECONOMICS AND ENVIRONMENT}, volume = {22}, journal = {Global Food Security - AGRICULTURE POLICY ECONOMICS AND ENVIRONMENT}, publisher = {Elsevier}, address = {Amsterdam}, issn = {2211-9124}, doi = {10.1016/j.gfs.2019.09.004}, pages = {37 -- 45}, year = {2019}, abstract = {With the onset of the global food crisis, the discussion about the use and misuse of agricultural market interventions regained academic attention. As a result of economies of scale, centralized policy implementation at the regional level has the potential to reduce the budgetary costs of policies. Borrowing from the literature on international unions and international policy coordination, we develop a conceptual framework to analyze when regional policy implementation makes sense. This is the case whenever spill-overs from centralization are large and policy preferences, driven by country-specific characteristics, are homogeneous. Subsequently, we examine the advantageousness of centralized policy implementation for the West African region regarding the most common food security policies. We show that centralization of trade policies and emergency food reserves is beneficial, while buffer stocks, safety net policies, and producer support policies should be implemented at the national level.}, language = {en} } @article{KozickaWeberKalkuhl2019, author = {Kozicka, Marta and Weber, Regine and Kalkuhl, Matthias}, title = {Cash vs. in-kind transfers}, series = {Food Security}, volume = {11}, journal = {Food Security}, number = {4}, publisher = {Springer}, address = {New York}, issn = {1876-4517}, doi = {10.1007/s12571-019-00942-x}, pages = {915 -- 927}, year = {2019}, abstract = {Historically, India has relied on subsidizing staple food as a major instrument in improving food security. Recently, however, cash transfers have entered the debate as an alternative, as they are associated with lower market distortions, leakages and fiscal costs. This study contributes to this debate by analyzing India's Targeted Public Distribution System (TPDS). Our main objective was to explain the under-purchase, or low take-up, from the TPDS, which is typically attributed to 'leakage', i.e. the diversion of food grains from eligible consumers. We provide an alternative solution based on self-targeting; while poorer households increase their consumption from the TPDS, wealthier households restrain from consuming subsidized commodities. Using a large household dataset, we estimated that such a voluntary opt-out system, based on income, would save a minimum of 6.5\% of grains released through the TPDS. Besides these demand-driven aspects, our analysis indicates that poor regions perform better at lowering the diversion of grains and that large targeting errors exist among female-led households. Finally, we find substantial regional price differences that would benefit the poor and rural population under a uniform cash-transfer system that does not correct for regional price levels.}, language = {en} } @article{ŠedovaKalkuhl2020, author = {Šedov{\´a}, Barbora and Kalkuhl, Matthias}, title = {Who are the climate migrants and where do they go?}, series = {World development}, volume = {129}, journal = {World development}, publisher = {Elsevier Science}, address = {Amsterdam}, issn = {0305-750X}, doi = {10.1016/j.worlddev.2019.104848}, pages = {19}, year = {2020}, abstract = {In this paper, we move from the large strand of research that looks at evidence of climate migration to the questions: who are the climate migrants? and where do they go? These questions are crucial to design policies that mitigate welfare losses of migration choices due to climate change. We study the direct and heterogeneous associations between weather extremes and migration in rural India. We combine ERAS reanalysis data with the India Human Development Survey household panel and conduct regression analyses by applying linear probability and multinomial logit models. This enables us to establish a causal relationship between temperature and precipitation anomalies and overall migration as well as migration by destination. We show that adverse weather shocks decrease rural-rural and international migration and push people into cities in different, presumably more prosperous states. A series of positive weather shocks, however, facilitates international migration and migration to cities within the same state. Further, our results indicate that in contrast to other migrants, climate migrants are likely to be from the lower end of the skill distribution and from households strongly dependent on agricultural production. We estimate that approximately 8\% of all rural-urban moves between 2005 and 2012 can be attributed to weather. This figure might increase as a consequence of climate change. Thus, a key policy recommendation is to take steps to facilitate integration of less educated migrants into the urban labor market.}, language = {en} } @article{KozickaKalkuhlBrockhaus2017, author = {Kozicka, Marta and Kalkuhl, Matthias and Brockhaus, Jan}, title = {Food Grain Policies in India and their Implications for Stocks and Fiscal Costs}, series = {Journal of Agricultural Economics}, volume = {68}, journal = {Journal of Agricultural Economics}, number = {1}, publisher = {Wiley-Blackwell}, address = {Hoboken}, issn = {0021-857X}, doi = {10.1111/1477-9552.12176}, pages = {98 -- 122}, year = {2017}, abstract = {We analyse current and possible future reforms of the Indian food policies for the most important staple grains, wheat and rice, within a two-commodity dynamic partial equilibrium model with stochastic shocks. The model is empirically grounded and reproduces past values well. It uses a new reduced-form approach to capture private storage dynamics. We evaluate the implementation of the National Food Security Act (NFSA) under several policy measures with the current regime as well as two scenarios with a regime change - implementation of cash transfers and deficiency payments. Implications for market fundamentals and fiscal costs are simulated in the medium term - until 2020/21. The NFSA puts a high pressure on fiscal costs and public stocks. Relying on imports with low support prices results in low fiscal costs and stable, but higher domestic and international prices, and a high risk of zero stocks. A policy strategy to manipulate procurement prices in order to maintain public stocks close to the norms leads to slightly higher fiscal costs with lower, but more volatile prices. The highest domestic price volatility occurs under a strategy which uses export bans in order to maintain sufficient public stocks. A cash-based regime can bring considerable savings and curb fiscal costs, particularly if targeted to the poor, and would leave sufficient stocks due to higher private stocks.}, language = {en} } @article{KalkuhlFernandezMilanSchwerhoffetal.2018, author = {Kalkuhl, Matthias and Fernandez Milan, Blanca and Schwerhoff, Gregor and Jakob, Michael and Hahnen, Maren and Creutzig, Felix}, title = {Can land taxes foster sustainable development?}, series = {Land use policy : the international journal covering all aspects of land use}, volume = {78}, journal = {Land use policy : the international journal covering all aspects of land use}, publisher = {Elsevier Science Publishers Ltd.}, address = {Oxford}, issn = {0264-8377}, doi = {10.1016/j.landusepol.2018.07.008}, pages = {338 -- 352}, year = {2018}, abstract = {Economists argue that land rent taxation is an ideal form of taxation as it causes no deadweight losses. Nevertheless, pure land rent taxation is rarely applied. This paper revisits the case of land taxation for developing countries. We first provide an up-to-date review on land taxation in development countries, including feasibility and implementation challenges. We then simulate land tax reforms for Rwanda, Peru, Nicaragua and Indonesia, based on household surveys. We find that (i) land taxes provide a substantial untapped potential for tax revenues at minimal deadweight losses; that (ii) linear land value taxes tend to put a high relative burden on poor households as land ownership is pervasive; (iii) non-linear tax schemes could avoid adverse effects on the poor; and that (iv) with technological advances, administrative costs of land taxes have reduced substantially and are outweighed by tax revenues and co-benefits of formalized land tenure. Enforcement and compliance remain, however, a key challenge.}, language = {en} } @article{RamakrishnanKalkuhlAhmadetal.2020, author = {Ramakrishnan, Anjali and Kalkuhl, Matthias and Ahmad, Sohail and Creutzig, Felix}, title = {Keeping up with the Patels}, series = {Energy research \& social science}, volume = {70}, journal = {Energy research \& social science}, publisher = {Elsevier}, address = {Amsterdam}, issn = {2214-6296}, doi = {10.1016/j.erss.2020.101742}, pages = {12}, year = {2020}, abstract = {End-users base their consumption decisions not only on available budget and direct use value, but also on their social environment. The underlying social dynamics are particularly important in the case of consumer goods that implicate high future energy demand and are, hence, also key for climate mitigation. This paper investigates the impact of social factors, with a focus on 'status perceptions', on car and appliance ownerships by urban India households. Using two rounds of the household-level data from the India Human Development Survey (IHDS, 2005 and 2012), we test for the impact of social factors in addition to economic, demographic, locational, and housing on ownership levels. Starting with factor analysis to categorise appliances by their latent characteristics, we then apply the bivariate ordered probit model to identify drivers of consumption among the urban households. We find that while income and household demographics are predominant drivers of car and appliance uptake, the household's perception of status, instrumented by a variable measuring expenditure on conspicuous consumption, emerges as a key social dimension influencing the uptake. The results indicate how households identify themselves in society influences their corresponding car and appliance consumption. A deeper understanding of status-based consumption is, therefore, essential to designing better demand-side solutions to low carbon consumption.}, language = {en} } @article{AlgieriKalkuhlKoch2017, author = {Algieri, Bernardina and Kalkuhl, Matthias and Koch, Nicolas}, title = {A tale of two tails: Explaining extreme events in financialized agricultural markets}, series = {Food policy : economics planning and politics of food and agriculture}, volume = {69}, journal = {Food policy : economics planning and politics of food and agriculture}, publisher = {Elsevier}, address = {Oxford}, issn = {0306-9192}, doi = {10.1016/j.foodpol.2017.05.004}, pages = {256 -- 269}, year = {2017}, abstract = {The substantial booms and busts in agricultural prices marked by extreme events across commodities lead to heated debates about the effects of speculative trading on commodity price fluctuations. This study proposes a new approach to understanding extreme events and boom-bust processes in agricultural markets. Using weekly futures data for twelve indexed agricultural commodities during 2006 to 2016, we find that extreme price changes, located in the 10\% tails of the distribution, cluster across agricultural markets. We then implement a multinomial logit model to investigate which factors are associated with the propagation of extreme events. Specifically, we disentangle three transmission conduits. (1) The macroeconomic conduit captures the possibility that the synchronized extreme price events are generated by business-cycle driven demand shifts mainly in emerging economies. (2) The financial conduit refers to potential links between extreme returns and the increasing flow of money from financial participants into agricultural futures markets. (3) Finally, the energy conduit accounts for possible spillover effects due to oil price shocks. Our results indicate an important role of managed money positions and oil prices while the real demand channel remains mostly insignificant. (C) 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.}, language = {en} } @misc{OttoPiontekKalkuhletal.2020, author = {Otto, Christian and Piontek, Franziska and Kalkuhl, Matthias and Frieler, Katja}, title = {Event-based models to understand the scale of the impact of extremes}, series = {Nature energy}, volume = {5}, journal = {Nature energy}, number = {2}, publisher = {Nature Publishing Group}, address = {London}, issn = {2058-7546}, doi = {10.1038/s41560-020-0562-4}, pages = {111 -- 114}, year = {2020}, abstract = {Climate change entails an intensification of extreme weather events that can potentially trigger socioeconomic and energy system disruptions. As we approach 1 degrees C of global warming we should start learning from historical extremes and explicitly incorporate such events in integrated climate-economy and energy systems models.}, language = {en} } @article{KalkuhlSchwerhoffWaha2020, author = {Kalkuhl, Matthias and Schwerhoff, Gregor and Waha, Katharina}, title = {Land tenure, climate and risk management}, series = {Ecological economics}, volume = {171}, journal = {Ecological economics}, publisher = {Elsevier Science}, address = {Amsterdam [u.a.]}, issn = {0921-8009}, doi = {10.1016/j.ecolecon.2019.106573}, pages = {16}, year = {2020}, abstract = {We analyze to what extent climate conditions affect the prevalence of sharecropping as a form of traditional land tenure. We investigate how sharecropping tenure is related to climate risk and how it interacts with fertilizer use and livestock ownership that both influence production risk. We first develop a stylized theoretical model to illustrate the role of climate for land tenure and production. Our empirical analysis is based on more than 9000 households with considerable heterogeneity in climate conditions across several African countries. We find that farmers in areas with low precipitation are more likely to be sharecroppers. We further find evidence for risk management interaction effects as sharecropping farmers are less likely to own livestock and more likely to use fertilizer. In economies where formal kinds of insurance are unavailable, sharecropping thus functions as a form of insurance and reduces the need for potentially costly risk management strategies.}, language = {en} } @article{FranksKalkuhlLessmann2023, author = {Franks, Max and Kalkuhl, Matthias and Lessmann, Kai}, title = {Optimal pricing for carbon dioxide removal under inter-regional leakage}, series = {Journal of environmental economics and management}, volume = {117}, journal = {Journal of environmental economics and management}, publisher = {Elsevier}, address = {Amsterdam}, issn = {1096-0449}, doi = {10.1016/j.jeem.2022.102769}, year = {2023}, abstract = {Carbon dioxide removal (CDR) moves atmospheric carbon to geological or land-based sinks. In a first-best setting, the optimal use of CDR is achieved by a removal subsidy that equals the optimal carbon tax and marginal damages. We derive second-best policy rules for CDR subsidies and carbon taxes when no global carbon price exists but a national government implements a unilateral climate policy. We find that the optimal carbon tax differs from an optimal CDR subsidy because of carbon leakage and a balance of resource trade effect. First, the optimal removal subsidy tends to be larger than the carbon tax because of lower supply-side leakage on fossil resource markets. Second, net carbon exporters exacerbate this wedge to increase producer surplus of their carbon resource producers, implying even larger removal subsidies. Third, net carbon importers may set their removal subsidy even below their carbon tax when marginal environmental damages are small, to appropriate producer surplus from carbon exporters.}, language = {en} } @misc{DorbandJakobKalkuhletal.2018, author = {Dorband, Ira Irina and Jakob, Michael and Kalkuhl, Matthias and Steckel, Jan Christoph}, title = {Poverty and distributional effects of carbon pricing in low- and middle- income countries}, series = {Postprints der Universit{\"a}t Potsdam : Wirtschafts- und Sozialwissenschaftliche Reihe}, journal = {Postprints der Universit{\"a}t Potsdam : Wirtschafts- und Sozialwissenschaftliche Reihe}, number = {103}, issn = {1867-5808}, doi = {10.25932/publishup-42459}, url = {http://nbn-resolving.de/urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-424592}, pages = {12}, year = {2018}, abstract = {Even though concerns about adverse distributional implications for the poor are one of the most important political challenges for carbon pricing, the existing literature reveals ambiguous results. For this reason, we assess the expected incidence of moderate carbon price increases for different income groups in 87 mostly low- and middle-income countries. Building on a consistent dataset and method, we find that for countries with per capita incomes of below USD 15,000 per year (at PPP-adjusted 2011 USD) carbon pricing has, on average, progressive distributional effects. We also develop a novel decomposition technique to show that distributional outcomes are primarily determined by differences among income groups in consumption patterns of energy, rather than of food, goods or services. We argue that an inverse U-shape relationship between energy expenditure shares and income explains why carbon pricing tends to be regressive in countries with relatively higher income. Since these countries are likely to have more financial resources and institutional capacities to deal with distributional issues, our findings suggest that mitigating climate change, raising domestic revenue and reducing economic inequality are not mutually exclusive, even in low- and middle-income countries.}, language = {en} } @article{DorbandJakobKalkuhletal.2019, author = {Dorband, Ira Irina and Jakob, Michael and Kalkuhl, Matthias and Steckel, Jan Christoph}, title = {Poverty and distributional effects of carbon pricing in low- and middle-income countries - A global comparative analysis}, series = {World development}, volume = {115}, journal = {World development}, publisher = {Elsevier}, address = {Oxford}, issn = {0305-750X}, doi = {10.1016/j.worlddev.2018.11.015}, pages = {246 -- 257}, year = {2019}, abstract = {Even though concerns about adverse distributional implications for the poor are one of the most important political challenges for carbon pricing, the existing literature reveals ambiguous results. For this reason, we assess the expected incidence of moderate carbon price increases for different income groups in 87 mostly low- and middle-income countries. Building on a consistent dataset and method, we find that for countries with per capita incomes of below USD 15,000 per year (at PPP-adjusted 2011 USD) carbon pricing has, on average, progressive distributional effects. We also develop a novel decomposition technique to show that distributional outcomes are primarily determined by differences among income groups in consumption patterns of energy, rather than of food, goods or services. We argue that an inverse U-shape relationship between energy expenditure shares and income explains why carbon pricing tends to be regressive in countries with relatively higher income. Since these countries are likely to have more financial resources and institutional capacities to deal with distributional issues, our findings suggest that mitigating climate change, raising domestic revenue and reducing economic inequality are not mutually exclusive, even in low- and middle-income countries. (C) 2018 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.}, language = {en} } @article{DiluisoWalkManychetal.2021, author = {Diluiso, Francesca and Walk, Paula and Manych, Niccolo and Cerutti, Nicola and Chipiga, Vladislav and Workman, Annabelle and Ayas, Ceren and Cui, Ryna Yiyun and Cui, Diyang and Song, Kaihui and Banisch, Lucy A. and Moretti, Nikolaj and Callaghan, Max W. and Clarke, Leon and Creutzig, Felix and Hilaire, Jerome and Jotzo, Frank and Kalkuhl, Matthias and Lamb, William F. and L{\"o}schel, Andreas and M{\"u}ller-Hansen, Finn and Nemet, Gregory F. and Oei, Pao-Yu and Sovacool, Benjamin K. and Steckel, Jan Christoph and Thomas, Sebastian and Wiseman, John and Minx, Jan C.}, title = {Coal transitions - part 1}, series = {Environmental research letters}, volume = {16}, journal = {Environmental research letters}, number = {11}, publisher = {Institute of Physics Publishing (IOP)}, address = {Bristol}, issn = {1748-9326}, doi = {10.1088/1748-9326/ac1b58}, pages = {40}, year = {2021}, abstract = {A rapid coal phase-out is needed to meet the goals of the Paris Agreement, but is hindered by serious challenges ranging from vested interests to the risks of social disruption. To understand how to organize a global coal phase-out, it is crucial to go beyond cost-effective climate mitigation scenarios and learn from the experience of previous coal transitions. Despite the relevance of the topic, evidence remains fragmented throughout different research fields, and not easily accessible. To address this gap, this paper provides a systematic map and comprehensive review of the literature on historical coal transitions. We use computer-assisted systematic mapping and review methods to chart and evaluate the available evidence on historical declines in coal production and consumption. We extracted a dataset of 278 case studies from 194 publications, covering coal transitions in 44 countries and ranging from the end of the 19th century until 2021. We find a relatively recent and rapidly expanding body of literature reflecting the growing importance of an early coal phase-out in scientific and political debates. Previous evidence has primarily focused on the United Kingdom, the United States, and Germany, while other countries that experienced large coal declines, like those in Eastern Europe, are strongly underrepresented. An increasing number of studies, mostly published in the last 5 years, has been focusing on China. Most of the countries successfully reducing coal dependency have undergone both demand-side and supply-side transitions. This supports the use of policy approaches targeting both demand and supply to achieve a complete coal phase-out. From a political economy perspective, our dataset highlights that most transitions are driven by rising production costs for coal, falling prices for alternative energies, or local environmental concerns, especially regarding air pollution. The main challenges for coal-dependent regions are structural change transformations, in particular for industry and labor. Rising unemployment is the most largely documented outcome in the sample. Policymakers at multiple levels are instrumental in facilitating coal transitions. They rely mainly on regulatory instruments to foster the transitions and compensation schemes or investment plans to deal with their transformative processes. Even though many models suggest that coal phase-outs are among the low-hanging fruits on the way to climate neutrality and meeting the international climate goals, our case studies analysis highlights the intricate political economy at work that needs to be addressed through well-designed and just policies.}, language = {en} } @article{MontroneSteckelKalkuhl2022, author = {Montrone, Lorenzo and Steckel, Jan Christoph and Kalkuhl, Matthias}, title = {The type of power capacity matters for economic development}, series = {Resource and energy economics}, volume = {69}, journal = {Resource and energy economics}, publisher = {Elsevier}, address = {Amsterdam}, issn = {0928-7655}, doi = {10.1016/j.reseneeco.2022.101313}, pages = {17}, year = {2022}, abstract = {We examine the relationship between different types of power investments and regional economic dynamics. We construct a novel panel dataset combining data on regional GDP and power capacity additions for different technologies between 1960 and 2015, which covers 65\% of the global power capacity that has been installed in this period. We use an event study design to identify the effect of power capacity addition on GDP per capita, exploiting the fact that the exact amount of power capacity coming online each year is determined by random construction delays. We find evidence that GDP per capita increases by 0.2\% in the 6 years around the coming online of 100 MW coal-fired power capacity. We find similar effects for hydropower capacity, but not for any other type of power capacity. The positive effects are regionally bounded and stronger for projects on new sites (green-field). The magnitude of this effect might not be comparable to the total external costs of building new coal-fired power capacity, yet our results help to explain why policymakers favor coal investments for spurring regional growth.}, language = {en} } @article{DiluisoAnnicchiaricoKalkuhletal.2021, author = {Diluiso, Francesca and Annicchiarico, Barbara and Kalkuhl, Matthias and Minx, Jan Christoph}, title = {Climate actions and macro-financial stability}, series = {Journal of environmental economics and management}, volume = {110}, journal = {Journal of environmental economics and management}, publisher = {Elsevier}, address = {Amsterdam}, issn = {0095-0696}, doi = {10.1016/j.jeem.2021.102548}, pages = {22}, year = {2021}, abstract = {Limiting global warming to well below 2 degrees C may pose threats to macroeconomic and financial stability. In an estimated Euro Area New Keynesian model with financial frictions and climate policy, we study the possible perils of a low-carbon transition and evaluate the role of monetary policy and financial regulation. We show that, even for very ambitious climate targets, transition costs are moderate along a timely and gradual mitigation pathway. Inflation volatility strongly increases for disorderly climate policy, demanding a strong monetary response by central banks. In reaction to an adverse financial shock originating in the fossil sector, a green quantitative easing policy can provide an effective stimulus to the economy, but its stabilizing properties do not significantly differ from those of market neutral asset purchase programs. A financial regulation, encouraging the decarbonization of the banks' balance sheets via ad hoc capital requirements, can significantly reduce the severity of a financial crisis, but prolongs the recovery phase. Our results suggest that the involvement of central banks in climate actions must be carefully designed to be in compliance with their mandate and to avoid unintended trade-offs.}, language = {en} } @article{EdenhoferKalkuhlOckenfels2020, author = {Edenhofer, Ottmar and Kalkuhl, Matthias and Ockenfels, Axel}, title = {Das Klimaschutzprogramm der Bundesregierung}, series = {Perspektiven der Wirtschaftspolitik}, volume = {21}, journal = {Perspektiven der Wirtschaftspolitik}, number = {1}, publisher = {De Gruyter}, address = {Berlin}, issn = {1465-6493}, doi = {10.1515/pwp-2020-0001}, pages = {4 -- 18}, year = {2020}, abstract = {Das Klimaschutzgesetz hat einen Paradigmenwechsel eingeleitet: den Einstieg in eine CO2-Bepreisung als k{\"u}nftiges Leitinstrument der Klimapolitik. Auf den ersten Blick ist der CO2-Preis unter einer F{\"u}lle von F{\"o}rdermaßnahmen und ordnungsrechtlichen Regelungen versch{\"u}ttet, deren Wirksamkeit und Kosten h{\"o}chst unsicher sind. Der CO2-Preis ist aber so angelegt, dass er langfristig das dominante Instrument einer europ{\"a}isch harmonisierten Klimapolitik werden kann. Der angedeutete Paradigmenwechsel der deutschen Klimapolitik {\"o}ffnet damit die T{\"u}r, die europ{\"a}ische und internationale Kooperation zu st{\"a}rken. Dazu ist es aber notwendig, neben der europ{\"a}ischen auch die globale Klimapolitik neu auszurichten. Auch dort sollten sich die Verhandlungen statt auf nationale Mengenziele auf CO2-Preise konzentrieren. Die erforderliche Kooperation wird m{\"o}glich, wenn die Regierungen Transferzahlungen strategisch und reziprok nutzen. So k{\"o}nnte die Effektivit{\"a}t der Klimapolitik erh{\"o}ht werden und es ließen sich die entstehenden Verteilungskonflikte entsch{\"a}rfen.}, language = {de} } @article{KalkuhlWenz2020, author = {Kalkuhl, Matthias and Wenz, Leonie}, title = {The impact of climate conditions on economic production}, series = {Journal of Environmental Economics and Management}, volume = {103}, journal = {Journal of Environmental Economics and Management}, publisher = {Elsevier}, address = {San Diego}, issn = {0095-0696}, doi = {10.1016/j.jeem.2020.102360}, pages = {20}, year = {2020}, abstract = {We present a novel data set of subnational economic output, Gross Regional Product (GRP), for more than 1500 regions in 77 countries that allows us to empirically estimate historic climate impacts at different time scales. Employing annual panel models, long-difference regressions and cross-sectional regressions, we identify effects on productivity levels and productivity growth. We do not find evidence for permanent growth rate impacts but we find robust evidence that temperature affects productivity levels considerably. An increase in global mean surface temperature by about 3.5°C until the end of the century would reduce global output by 7-14\% in 2100, with even higher damages in tropical and poor regions. Updating the DICE damage function with our estimates suggests that the social cost of carbon from temperature-induced productivity losses is on the order of 73-142\$/tCO2 in 2020, rising to 92-181\$/tCO2 in 2030. These numbers exclude non-market damages and damages from extreme weather events or sea-level rise.}, language = {en} } @article{WenzKalkuhlSteckeletal.2016, author = {Wenz, Leonie and Kalkuhl, Matthias and Steckel, Jan Christoph and Creutzig, Felix}, title = {Teleconnected food supply shocks}, series = {Environmental research letters}, volume = {11}, journal = {Environmental research letters}, publisher = {IOP Publ. Ltd.}, address = {Bristol}, issn = {1748-9326}, doi = {10.1088/1748-9326/11/3/035007}, pages = {10}, year = {2016}, abstract = {The 2008-2010 food crisis might have been a harbinger of fundamental climate-induced food crises with geopolitical implications. Heat-wave-induced yield losses in Russia and resulting export restrictions led to increases in market prices for wheat across the Middle East, likely contributing to the Arab Spring. With ongoing climate change, temperatures and temperature variability will rise, leading to higher uncertainty in yields for major nutritional crops. Here we investigate which countries are most vulnerable to teleconnected supply-shocks, i.e. where diets strongly rely on the import of wheat, maize, or rice, and where a large share of the population is living in poverty. We find that the Middle East is most sensitive to teleconnected supply shocks in wheat, Central America to supply shocks in maize, and Western Africa to supply shocks in rice. Weighing with poverty levels, Sub-Saharan Africa is most affected. Altogether, a simultaneous 10\% reduction in exports of wheat, rice, and maize would reduce caloric intake of 55 million people living in poverty by about 5\%. Export bans in major producing regions would put up to 200 million people below the poverty line at risk, 90\% of which live in Sub-Saharan Africa. Our results suggest that a region-specific combination of national increases in agricultural productivity and diversification of trade partners and diets can effectively decrease future food security risks.}, language = {en} } @article{AmbergausdemMooreBekketal.2022, author = {Amberg, Maximilian and aus dem Moore, Nils and Bekk, Anke and Bergmann, Tobias and Edenhofer, Ottmar and Flachsland, Christian and George, Jan and Haywood, Luke and Heinemann, Maik and Held, Anne and Kalkuhl, Matthias and Kellner, Maximilian and Koch, Nicolas and Luderer, Gunnar and Meyer, Henrika and Nikodinoska, Dragana and Pahle, Michael and Roolfs, Christina and Schill, Wolf-Peter}, title = {Reformoptionen f{\"u}r ein nachhaltiges Steuer- und Abgabensystem}, series = {Perspektiven der Wirtschaftspolitik}, volume = {23}, journal = {Perspektiven der Wirtschaftspolitik}, number = {3}, publisher = {De Gruyter}, address = {Berlin}, issn = {1465-6493}, doi = {10.1515/pwp-2021-0051}, pages = {165 -- 199}, year = {2022}, abstract = {Steuern und Abgaben auf Produkte oder Verbrauch mit gesellschaftlichen Folgekosten (externe Kosten) - sogenannte Pigou- oder Lenkungssteuern - sind ein gesellschaftliches „Win-Win-Instrument". Sie verbessern die Wohlfahrt und sch{\"u}tzen gleichzeitig die Umwelt und das Klima. Dies wird erreicht, indem umweltsch{\"a}digende Aktivit{\"a}ten einen Preis bekommen, der m{\"o}glichst exakt der H{\"o}he des Schadens entspricht. Eine konsequente Bepreisung der externen Kosten nach diesem Prinzip k{\"o}nnte in Deutschland erhebliche zus{\"a}tzliche Einnahmen erbringen: Basierend auf bisherigen Studien zu externen Kosten w{\"a}ren zus{\"a}tzliche Einnahmen in der Gr{\"o}ßenordnung von 348 bis 564 Milliarden Euro pro Jahr (44 bis 71 Prozent der gesamten Steuereinnahmen) m{\"o}glich. Die Autoren warnen allerdings, dass die Bezifferung der externen Kosten mit erheblichen Unsicherheiten verbunden ist. Damit Lenkungssteuern und -abgaben ihre positiven Lenkungs- und Wohlstandseffekte voll entfalten k{\"o}nnen, seien zudem institutionelle Reformen notwendig.}, language = {de} }