@unpublished{AcharyaActisAghajanietal.2013,
  author    = {Acharya, B. S. and Actis, M. and Aghajani, T. and Agnetta, G. and Aguilar, J. and Aharonian, Felix A. and Ajello, M. and Akhperjanian, A. G. and Alcubierre, M. and Aleksic, J. and Alfaro, R. and Aliu, E. and Allafort, A. J. and Allan, D. and Allekotte, I. and Amato, E. and Anderson, J. and Ang{\"u}ner, Ekrem Oǧuzhan and Antonelli, L. A. and Antoranz, P. and Aravantinos, A. and Arlen, T. and Armstrong, T. and Arnaldi, H. and Arrabito, L. and Asano, K. and Ashton, T. and Asorey, H. G. and Awane, Y. and Baba, H. and Babic, A. and Baby, N. and Baehr, J. and Bais, A. and Baixeras, C. and Bajtlik, S. and Balbo, M. and Balis, D. and Balkowski, C. and Bamba, A. and Bandiera, R. and Barber, A. and Barbier, C. and Barcelo, M. and Barnacka, Anna and Barnstedt, J{\"u}rgen and Barres de Almeida, U. and Barrio, J. A. and Basili, A. and Basso, S. and Bastieri, D. and Bauer, C. and Baushev, Anton N. and Becerra Gonzalez, J. and Becherini, Yvonne and Bechtol, K. C. and Tjus, J. Becker and Beckmann, Volker and Bednarek, W. and Behera, B. and Belluso, M. and Benbow, W. and Berdugo, J. and Berger, K. and Bernard, F. and Bernardino, T. and Bernl{\"o}hr, K. and Bhat, N. and Bhattacharyya, S. and Bigongiari, C. and Biland, A. and Billotta, S. and Bird, T. and Birsin, E. and Bissaldi, E. and Biteau, Jonathan and Bitossi, M. and Blake, S. and Blanch Bigas, O. and Blasi, P. and Bobkov, A. A. and Boccone, V. and Boettcher, Markus and Bogacz, L. and Bogart, J. and Bogdan, M. and Boisson, Catherine and Boix Gargallo, J. and Bolmont, J. and Bonanno, G. and Bonardi, A. and Bonev, T. and Bonifacio, P. and Bonnoli, G. and Bordas, Pol and Borgland, A. W. and Borkowski, Janett and Bose, R. and Botner, O. and Bottani, A. and Bouchet, L. and Bourgeat, M. and Boutonnet, C. and Bouvier, A. and Brau-Nogue, S. and Braun, I. and Bretz, T. and Briggs, M. S. and Bringmann, T. and Brook, P. and Brun, Pierre and Brunetti, L. and Buanes, T. and Buckley, J. H. and Buehler, R. and Bugaev, V. and Bulgarelli, A. and Bulik, Tomasz and Busetto, G. and Buson, S. and Byrum, K. and Cailles, M. and Cameron, R. A. and Camprecios, J. and Canestrari, R. and Cantu, S. and Capalbi, M. and Caraveo, P. A. and Carmona, E. and Carosi, A. and Carr, John and Carton, P. H. and Casanova, Sabrina and Casiraghi, M. and Catalano, O. and Cavazzani, S. and Cazaux, S. and Cerruti, M. and Chabanne, E. and Chadwick, Paula M. and Champion, C. and Chen, Andrew and Chiang, J. and Chiappetti, L. and Chikawa, M. and Chitnis, V. R. and Chollet, F. and Chudoba, J. and Cieslar, M. and Cillis, A. N. and Cohen-Tanugi, J. and Colafrancesco, Sergio and Colin, P. and Calome, J. and Colonges, S. and Compin, M. and Conconi, P. and Conforti, V. and Connaughton, V. and Conrad, Jan and Contreras, J. L. and Coppi, P. and Corona, P. and Corti, D. and Cortina, J. and Cossio, L. and Costantini, H. and Cotter, G. and Courty, B. and Couturier, S. and Covino, S. and Crimi, G. and Criswell, S. J. and Croston, J. and Cusumano, G. and Dafonseca, M. and Dale, O. and Daniel, M. and Darling, J. and Davids, I. and Dazzi, F. and De Angelis, A. and De Caprio, V. and De Frondat, F. and de Gouveia Dal Pino, E. M. and de la Calle, I. and De La Vega, G. A. and Lopez, R. de los Reyes and De Lotto, B. and De Luca, A. and de Mello Neto, J. R. T. and de Naurois, M. and de Oliveira, Y. and de Ona Wilhelmi, E. and de Souza, V. and Decerprit, G. and Decock, G. and Deil, C. and Delagnes, E. and Deleglise, G. and Delgado, C. and Della Volpe, D. and Demange, P. and Depaola, G. and Dettlaff, A. and Di Paola, A. and Di Pierro, F. and Diaz, C. and Dick, J. and Dickherber, R. and Dickinson, H. and Diez-Blanco, V. and Digel, S. and Dimitrov, D. and Disset, G. and Djannati-Ata{\"i}, A. and Doert, M. and Dohmke, M. and Domainko, W. and Prester, Dijana Dominis and Donat, A. and Dorner, D. and Doro, M. and Dournaux, J-L. and Drake, G. and Dravins, D. and Drury, L. and Dubois, F. and Dubois, R. and Dubus, G. and Dufour, C. and Dumas, D. and Dumm, J. and Durand, D. and Dyks, J. and Dyrda, M. and Ebr, J. and Edy, E. and Egberts, Kathrin and Eger, P. and Einecke, S. and Eleftheriadis, C. and Elles, S. and Emmanoulopoulos, D. and Engelhaupt, D. and Enomoto, R. and Ernenwein, J-P and Errando, M. and Etchegoyen, A. and Evans, P. and Falcone, A. and Fantinel, D. and Farakos, K. and Farnier, C. and Fasola, G. and Favill, B. and Fede, E. and Federici, S. and Fegan, S. and Feinstein, F. and Ferenc, D. and Ferrando, P. and Fesquet, M. and Fiasson, A. and Fillin-Martino, E. and Fink, D. and Finley, C. and Finley, J. P. and Fiorini, M. and Firpo Curcoll, R. and Flores, H. and Florin, D. and Focke, W. and Foehr, C. and Fokitis, E. and Font, L. and Fontaine, G. and Fornasa, M. and Foerster, A. and Fortson, L. and Fouque, N. and Franckowiak, A. and Fransson, C. and Fraser, G. and Frei, R. and Albuquerque, I. F. M. and Fresnillo, L. and Fruck, C. and Fujita, Y. and Fukazawa, Y. and Fukui, Y. and Funk, S. and Gaebele, W. and Gabici, S. and Gabriele, R. and Gadola, A. and Galante, N. and Gall, D. and Gallant, Y. and Gamez-Garcia, J. and Garcia, B. and Garcia Lopez, R. and Gardiol, D. and Garrido, D. and Garrido, L. and Gascon, D. and Gaug, M. and Gaweda, J. and Gebremedhin, L. and Geffroy, N. and Gerard, L. and Ghedina, A. and Ghigo, M. and Giannakaki, E. and Gianotti, F. and Giarrusso, S. and Giavitto, G. and Giebels, B. and Gika, V. and Giommi, P. and Girard, N. and Giro, E. and Giuliani, A. and Glanzman, T. and Glicenstein, J. -F. and Godinovic, N. and Golev, V. and Gomez Berisso, M. and Gomez-Ortega, J. and Gonzalez, M. M. and Gonzalez, A. and Gonzalez, F. and Gonzalez Munoz, A. and Gothe, K. 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  title     = {Introducing the CTA concept},
  series = {Astroparticle physics},
  volume    = {43},
  journal   = {Astroparticle physics},
  number    = {2},
  publisher = {Elsevier},
  address   = {Amsterdam},
  organization    = {CTA Consortium},
  issn      = {0927-6505},
  doi       = {10.1016/j.astropartphys.2013.01.007},
  pages     = {3 -- 18},
  year      = {2013},
  abstract  = {The Cherenkov Telescope Array (CTA) is a new observatory for very high-energy (VHE) gamma rays. CTA has ambitions science goals, for which it is necessary to achieve full-sky coverage, to improve the sensitivity by about an order of magnitude, to span about four decades of energy, from a few tens of GeV to above 100 TeV with enhanced angular and energy resolutions over existing VHE gamma-ray observatories. An international collaboration has formed with more than 1000 members from 27 countries in Europe, Asia, Africa and North and South America. In 2010 the CTA Consortium completed a Design Study and started a three-year Preparatory Phase which leads to production readiness of CTA in 2014. In this paper we introduce the science goals and the concept of CTA, and provide an overview of the project.},
  language  = {en}
}
@article{ActisAgnettaAharonianetal.2011,
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  title     = {Design concepts for the Cherenkov Telescope Array CTA an advanced facility for ground-based high-energy gamma-ray astronomy},
  series = {Experimental astronomy : an international journal on astronomical instrumentation and data analysis},
  volume    = {32},
  journal   = {Experimental astronomy : an international journal on astronomical instrumentation and data analysis},
  number    = {3},
  publisher = {Springer},
  address   = {Dordrecht},
  organization    = {CTA Consortium},
  issn      = {0922-6435},
  doi       = {10.1007/s10686-011-9247-0},
  pages     = {193 -- 316},
  year      = {2011},
  abstract  = {Ground-based gamma-ray astronomy has had a major breakthrough with the impressive results obtained using systems of imaging atmospheric Cherenkov telescopes. Ground-based gamma-ray astronomy has a huge potential in astrophysics, particle physics and cosmology. CTA is an international initiative to build the next generation instrument, with a factor of 5-10 improvement in sensitivity in the 100 GeV-10 TeV range and the extension to energies well below 100 GeV and above 100 TeV. CTA will consist of two arrays (one in the north, one in the south) for full sky coverage and will be operated as open observatory. The design of CTA is based on currently available technology. This document reports on the status and presents the major design concepts of CTA.},
  language  = {en}
}
@article{AartsAndersonAndersonetal.2015,
  author    = {Aarts, Alexander A. and Anderson, Joanna E. and Anderson, Christopher J. and Attridge, Peter R. and Attwood, Angela and Axt, Jordan and Babel, Molly and Bahnik, Stepan and Baranski, Erica and Barnett-Cowan, Michael and Bartmess, Elizabeth and Beer, Jennifer and Bell, Raoul and Bentley, Heather and Beyan, Leah and Binion, Grace and Borsboom, Denny and Bosch, Annick and Bosco, Frank A. and Bowman, Sara D. and Brandt, Mark J. and Braswell, Erin and Brohmer, Hilmar and Brown, Benjamin T. and Brown, Kristina and Bruening, Jovita and Calhoun-Sauls, Ann and Callahan, Shannon P. and Chagnon, Elizabeth and Chandler, Jesse and Chartier, Christopher R. and Cheung, Felix and Christopherson, Cody D. and Cillessen, Linda and Clay, Russ and Cleary, Hayley and Cloud, Mark D. and Cohn, Michael and Cohoon, Johanna and Columbus, Simon and Cordes, Andreas and Costantini, Giulio and Alvarez, Leslie D. Cramblet and Cremata, Ed and Crusius, Jan and DeCoster, Jamie and DeGaetano, Michelle A. and Della Penna, Nicolas and den Bezemer, Bobby and Deserno, Marie K. and Devitt, Olivia and Dewitte, Laura and Dobolyi, David G. and Dodson, Geneva T. and Donnellan, M. Brent and Donohue, Ryan and Dore, Rebecca A. and Dorrough, Angela and Dreber, Anna and Dugas, Michelle and Dunn, Elizabeth W. and Easey, Kayleigh and Eboigbe, Sylvia and Eggleston, Casey and Embley, Jo and Epskamp, Sacha and Errington, Timothy M. and Estel, Vivien and Farach, Frank J. and Feather, Jenelle and Fedor, Anna and Fernandez-Castilla, Belen and Fiedler, Susann and Field, James G. and Fitneva, Stanka A. and Flagan, Taru and Forest, Amanda L. and Forsell, Eskil and Foster, Joshua D. and Frank, Michael C. and Frazier, Rebecca S. and Fuchs, Heather and Gable, Philip and Galak, Jeff and Galliani, Elisa Maria and Gampa, Anup and Garcia, Sara and Gazarian, Douglas and Gilbert, Elizabeth and Giner-Sorolla, Roger and Gl{\"o}ckner, Andreas and G{\"o}llner, Lars and Goh, Jin X. and Goldberg, Rebecca and Goodbourn, Patrick T. and Gordon-McKeon, Shauna and Gorges, Bryan and Gorges, Jessie and Goss, Justin and Graham, Jesse and Grange, James A. and Gray, Jeremy and Hartgerink, Chris and Hartshorne, Joshua and Hasselman, Fred and Hayes, Timothy and Heikensten, Emma and Henninger, Felix and Hodsoll, John and Holubar, Taylor and Hoogendoorn, Gea and Humphries, Denise J. and Hung, Cathy O. -Y. and Immelman, Nathali and Irsik, Vanessa C. and Jahn, Georg and Jaekel, Frank and Jekel, Marc and Johannesson, Magnus and Johnson, Larissa G. and Johnson, David J. and Johnson, Kate M. and Johnston, William J. and Jonas, Kai and Joy-Gaba, Jennifer A. and Kappes, Heather Barry and Kelso, Kim and Kidwell, Mallory C. and Kim, Seung Kyung and Kirkhart, Matthew and Kleinberg, Bennett and Knezevic, Goran and Kolorz, Franziska Maria and Kossakowski, Jolanda J. and Krause, Robert Wilhelm and Krijnen, Job and Kuhlmann, Tim and Kunkels, Yoram K. and Kyc, Megan M. and Lai, Calvin K. and Laique, Aamir and Lakens, Daniel and Lane, Kristin A. and Lassetter, Bethany and Lazarevic, Ljiljana B. and LeBel, Etienne P. and Lee, Key Jung and Lee, Minha and Lemm, Kristi and Levitan, Carmel A. and Lewis, Melissa and Lin, Lin and Lin, Stephanie and Lippold, Matthias and Loureiro, Darren and Luteijn, Ilse and Mackinnon, Sean and Mainard, Heather N. and Marigold, Denise C. and Martin, Daniel P. and Martinez, Tylar and Masicampo, E. J. and Matacotta, Josh and Mathur, Maya and May, Michael and Mechin, Nicole and Mehta, Pranjal and Meixner, Johannes and Melinger, Alissa and Miller, Jeremy K. and Miller, Mallorie and Moore, Katherine and M{\"o}schl, Marcus and Motyl, Matt and M{\"u}ller, Stephanie M. and Munafo, Marcus and Neijenhuijs, Koen I. and Nervi, Taylor and Nicolas, Gandalf and Nilsonne, Gustav and Nosek, Brian A. and Nuijten, Michele B. and Olsson, Catherine and Osborne, Colleen and Ostkamp, Lutz and Pavel, Misha and Penton-Voak, Ian S. and Perna, Olivia and Pernet, Cyril and Perugini, Marco and Pipitone, R. Nathan and Pitts, Michael and Plessow, Franziska and Prenoveau, Jason M. and Rahal, Rima-Maria and Ratliff, Kate A. and Reinhard, David and Renkewitz, Frank and Ricker, Ashley A. and Rigney, Anastasia and Rivers, Andrew M. and Roebke, Mark and Rutchick, Abraham M. and Ryan, Robert S. and Sahin, Onur and Saide, Anondah and Sandstrom, Gillian M. and Santos, David and Saxe, Rebecca and Schlegelmilch, Rene and Schmidt, Kathleen and Scholz, Sabine and Seibel, Larissa and Selterman, Dylan Faulkner and Shaki, Samuel and Simpson, William B. and Sinclair, H. Colleen and Skorinko, Jeanine L. M. and Slowik, Agnieszka and Snyder, Joel S. and Soderberg, Courtney and Sonnleitner, Carina and Spencer, Nick and Spies, Jeffrey R. and Steegen, Sara and Stieger, Stefan and Strohminger, Nina and Sullivan, Gavin B. and Talhelm, Thomas and Tapia, Megan and te Dorsthorst, Anniek and Thomae, Manuela and Thomas, Sarah L. and Tio, Pia and Traets, Frits and Tsang, Steve and Tuerlinckx, Francis and Turchan, Paul and Valasek, Milan and Van Aert, Robbie and van Assen, Marcel and van Bork, Riet and van de Ven, Mathijs and van den Bergh, Don and van der Hulst, Marije and van Dooren, Roel and van Doorn, Johnny and van Renswoude, Daan R. and van Rijn, Hedderik and Vanpaemel, Wolf and Echeverria, Alejandro Vasquez and Vazquez, Melissa and Velez, Natalia and Vermue, Marieke and Verschoor, Mark and Vianello, Michelangelo and Voracek, Martin and Vuu, Gina and Wagenmakers, Eric-Jan and Weerdmeester, Joanneke and Welsh, Ashlee and Westgate, Erin C. and Wissink, Joeri and Wood, Michael and Woods, Andy and Wright, Emily and Wu, Sining and Zeelenberg, Marcel and Zuni, Kellylynn},
  title     = {Estimating the reproducibility of psychological science},
  series = {Science},
  volume    = {349},
  journal   = {Science},
  number    = {6251},
  publisher = {American Assoc. for the Advancement of Science},
  address   = {Washington},
  organization    = {Open Sci Collaboration},
  issn      = {1095-9203},
  doi       = {10.1126/science.aac4716},
  pages     = {8},
  year      = {2015},
  abstract  = {Reproducibility is a defining feature of science, but the extent to which it characterizes current research is unknown. We conducted replications of 100 experimental and correlational studies published in three psychology journals using high-powered designs and original materials when available. Replication effects were half the magnitude of original effects, representing a substantial decline. Ninety-seven percent of original studies had statistically significant results. Thirty-six percent of replications had statistically significant results; 47\% of original effect sizes were in the 95\% confidence interval of the replication effect size; 39\% of effects were subjectively rated to have replicated the original result; and if no bias in original results is assumed, combining original and replication results left 68\% with statistically significant effects. Correlational tests suggest that replication success was better predicted by the strength of original evidence than by characteristics of the original and replication teams.},
  language  = {en}
}
@article{BurrellEisertOsborne2009,
  author    = {Burrell, Christian K. and Eisert, Jens and Osborne, Tobias J.},
  title     = {Information propagation through quantum chains with fluctuating disorder},
  issn      = {1050-2947},
  doi       = {10.1103/Physreva.80.052319},
  year      = {2009},
  abstract  = {We investigate the propagation of information through one-dimensional nearest-neighbor interacting quantum spin chains in the presence of external fields which fluctuate independently on each site. We study two fundamentally different models: (i) a model with general nearest-neighbor interactions in a field which fluctuates in both strength and direction and (ii) the XX chain placed in a fluctuating field aligned in the z direction. In both cases we find that information propagation is suppressed in a way which is quite different from the suppression observed when the XX model is placed in a statically disordered field.},
  language  = {en}
}
@article{deBeaudrapOhligerOsborneetal.2010,
  author    = {de Beaudrap, Niel and Ohliger, Matthias and Osborne, Tobias J. and Eisert, Jens},
  title     = {Solving frustration-free spin systems},
  issn      = {0031-9007},
  doi       = {10.1103/Physrevlett.105.060504},
  year      = {2010},
  abstract  = {We identify a large class of quantum many-body systems that can be solved exactly: natural frustration-free spin-1/2 nearest-neighbor Hamiltonians on arbitrary lattices. We show that the entire ground-state manifold of such models can be found exactly by a tensor network of isometries acting on a space locally isomorphic to the symmetric subspace. Thus, for this wide class of models, real-space renormalization can be made exact. Our findings also imply that every such frustration-free spin model satisfies an area law for the entanglement entropy of the ground state, establishing a novel large class of models for which an area law is known. Finally, we show that our approach gives rise to an ansatz class useful for the simulation of almost frustration-free models in a simple fashion, outperforming mean- field theory.},
  language  = {en}
}
@article{deBeaudrapOsborneEisert2010,
  author    = {de Beaudrap, Niel and Osborne, Tobias J. and Eisert, Jens},
  title     = {Ground states of unfrustrated spin Hamiltonians satisfy an area law},
  issn      = {1367-2630},
  doi       = {10.1088/1367-2630/12/9/095007},
  year      = {2010},
  abstract  = {We show that ground states of unfrustrated quantum spin-1/2 systems on general lattices satisfy an entanglement area law, provided that the Hamiltonian can be decomposed into nearest-neighbor interaction terms that have entangled excited states. The ground state manifold can be efficiently described as the image of a low-dimensional subspace of low Schmidt measure, under an efficiently contractible tree-tensor network. This structure gives rise to the possibility of efficiently simulating the complete ground space (which is in general degenerate). We briefly discuss 'non- generic' cases, including highly degenerate interactions with product eigenbases, using a relationship to percolation theory. We finally assess the possibility of using such tree tensor networks to simulate almost frustration- free spin models.},
  language  = {en}
}
@article{SchuchHarrisonOsborneetal.2011,
  author    = {Schuch, Norbert and Harrison, Sarah K. and Osborne, Tobias J. and Eisert, Jens},
  title     = {Information propagation for interacting-particle systems},
  series = {Physical review : A, Atomic, molecular, and optical physics},
  volume    = {84},
  journal   = {Physical review : A, Atomic, molecular, and optical physics},
  number    = {3},
  publisher = {American Physical Society},
  address   = {College Park},
  issn      = {1050-2947},
  doi       = {10.1103/PhysRevA.84.032309},
  pages     = {5},
  year      = {2011},
  abstract  = {We study the speed at which information propagates through systems of interacting quantum particles moving on a regular lattice and show that for a certain class of initial conditions there exists a maximum speed of sound at which information can propagate. Our argument applies equally to quantum spins, bosons such as in the Bose-Hubbard model, fermions, anyons, and general mixtures thereof, on arbitrary lattices of any dimension. It also pertains to dissipative dynamics on the lattice, and generalizes to the continuum for quantum fields. Our result can be seen as an analog of the Lieb-Robinson bound for strongly correlated models.},
  language  = {en}
}
@article{DormannElithBacheretal.2013,
  author    = {Dormann, Carsten F. and Elith, Jane and Bacher, Sven and Buchmann, Carsten M. and Carl, Gudrun and Carre, Gabriel and Garcia Marquez, Jaime R. and Gruber, Bernd and Lafourcade, Bruno and Leitao, Pedro J. and M{\"u}nkem{\"u}ller, Tamara and McClean, Colin and Osborne, Patrick E. and Reineking, Bjoern and Schr{\"o}der-Esselbach, Boris and Skidmore, Andrew K. and Zurell, Damaris and Lautenbach, Sven},
  title     = {Collinearity a review of methods to deal with it and a simulation study evaluating their performance},
  series = {Ecography : pattern and diversity in ecology ; research papers forum},
  volume    = {36},
  journal   = {Ecography : pattern and diversity in ecology ; research papers forum},
  number    = {1},
  publisher = {Wiley-Blackwell},
  address   = {Hoboken},
  issn      = {0906-7590},
  doi       = {10.1111/j.1600-0587.2012.07348.x},
  pages     = {27 -- 46},
  year      = {2013},
  abstract  = {Collinearity refers to the non independence of predictor variables, usually in a regression-type analysis. It is a common feature of any descriptive ecological data set and can be a problem for parameter estimation because it inflates the variance of regression parameters and hence potentially leads to the wrong identification of relevant predictors in a statistical model. Collinearity is a severe problem when a model is trained on data from one region or time, and predicted to another with a different or unknown structure of collinearity. To demonstrate the reach of the problem of collinearity in ecology, we show how relationships among predictors differ between biomes, change over spatial scales and through time. Across disciplines, different approaches to addressing collinearity problems have been developed, ranging from clustering of predictors, threshold-based pre-selection, through latent variable methods, to shrinkage and regularisation. Using simulated data with five predictor-response relationships of increasing complexity and eight levels of collinearity we compared ways to address collinearity with standard multiple regression and machine-learning approaches. We assessed the performance of each approach by testing its impact on prediction to new data. In the extreme, we tested whether the methods were able to identify the true underlying relationship in a training dataset with strong collinearity by evaluating its performance on a test dataset without any collinearity. We found that methods specifically designed for collinearity, such as latent variable methods and tree based models, did not outperform the traditional GLM and threshold-based pre-selection. Our results highlight the value of GLM in combination with penalised methods (particularly ridge) and threshold-based pre-selection when omitted variables are considered in the final interpretation. However, all approaches tested yielded degraded predictions under change in collinearity structure and the folk lore'-thresholds of correlation coefficients between predictor variables of |r| >0.7 was an appropriate indicator for when collinearity begins to severely distort model estimation and subsequent prediction. The use of ecological understanding of the system in pre-analysis variable selection and the choice of the least sensitive statistical approaches reduce the problems of collinearity, but cannot ultimately solve them.},
  language  = {en}
}
@misc{BecherOsborneThorbeketal.2013,
  author    = {Becher, Matthias A. and Osborne, Juliet L. and Thorbek, Pernille and Kennedy, Peter J. and Grimm, Volker},
  title     = {Towards a systems approach for understanding honeybee decline - a stocktaking and synthesis of existing models},
  series = {Journal of applied ecology : an official journal of the British Ecological Society},
  volume    = {50},
  journal   = {Journal of applied ecology : an official journal of the British Ecological Society},
  number    = {4},
  publisher = {Wiley-Blackwell},
  address   = {Hoboken},
  issn      = {0021-8901},
  doi       = {10.1111/1365-2664.12112},
  pages     = {868 -- 880},
  year      = {2013},
  abstract  = {1. The health of managed and wild honeybee colonies appears to have declined substantially in Europe and the United States over the last decade. Sustainability of honeybee colonies is important not only for honey production, but also for pollination of crops and wild plants alongside other insect pollinators. A combination of causal factors, including parasites, pathogens, land use changes and pesticide usage, are cited as responsible for the increased colony mortality. 2. However, despite detailed knowledge of the behaviour of honeybees and their colonies, there are no suitable tools to explore the resilience mechanisms of this complex system under stress. Empirically testing all combinations of stressors in a systematic fashion is not feasible. We therefore suggest a cross-level systems approach, based on mechanistic modelling, to investigate the impacts of (and interactions between) colony and land management. 3. We review existing honeybee models that are relevant to examining the effects of different stressors on colony growth and survival. Most of these models describe honeybee colony dynamics, foraging behaviour or honeybee - varroa mite - virus interactions. 4. We found that many, but not all, processes within honeybee colonies, epidemiology and foraging are well understood and described in the models, but there is no model that couples in-hive dynamics and pathology with foraging dynamics in realistic landscapes. 5. Synthesis and applications. We describe how a new integrated model could be built to simulate multifactorial impacts on the honeybee colony system, using building blocks from the reviewed models. The development of such a tool would not only highlight empirical research priorities but also provide an important forecasting tool for policy makers and beekeepers, and we list examples of relevant applications to bee disease and landscape management decisions.},
  language  = {en}
}
@article{BecherGrimmThorbeketal.2014,
  author    = {Becher, Matthias A. and Grimm, Volker and Thorbek, Pernille and Horn, Juliane and Kennedy, Peter J. and Osborne, Juliet L.},
  title     = {BEEHAVE: a systems model of honeybee colony dynamics and foraging to explore multifactorial causes of colony failure},
  series = {Journal of applied ecology : an official journal of the British Ecological Society},
  volume    = {51},
  journal   = {Journal of applied ecology : an official journal of the British Ecological Society},
  number    = {2},
  publisher = {Wiley-Blackwell},
  address   = {Hoboken},
  issn      = {0021-8901},
  doi       = {10.1111/1365-2664.12222},
  pages     = {470 -- 482},
  year      = {2014},
  abstract  = {BEEHAVE offers a valuable tool for researchers to design and focus field experiments, for regulators to explore the relative importance of stressors to devise management and policy advice and for beekeepers to understand and predict varroa dynamics and effects of management interventions. We expect that scientists and stakeholders will find a variety of applications for BEEHAVE, stimulating further model development and the possible inclusion of other stressors of potential importance to honeybee colony dynamics.},
  language  = {en}
}
@article{HornBecherKennedyetal.2016,
  author    = {Horn, Juliane and Becher, Matthias A. and Kennedy, Peter J. and Osborne, Juliet L. and Grimm, Volker},
  title     = {Multiple stressors: using the honeybee model BEEHAVE to explore how spatial and temporal forage stress affects colony resilience},
  series = {Oikos},
  volume    = {125},
  journal   = {Oikos},
  publisher = {Wiley-Blackwell},
  address   = {Hoboken},
  issn      = {0030-1299},
  doi       = {10.1111/oik.02636},
  pages     = {1001 -- 1016},
  year      = {2016},
  abstract  = {The causes underlying the increased mortality of honeybee Apis mellifera colonies observed over the past decade remain unclear. Since so far the evidence for monocausal explanations is equivocal, involvement of multiple stressors is generally assumed. We here focus on various aspects of forage availability, which have received less attention than other stressors because it is virtually impossible to explore them empirically. We applied the colony model BEEHAVE, which links within-hive dynamics and foraging, to stylized landscape settings to explore how foraging distance, forage supply, and "forage gaps", i.e. periods in which honeybees cannot find any nectar and pollen, affect colony resilience and the mechanisms behind. We found that colony extinction was mainly driven by foraging distance, but the timing of forage gaps had strongest effects on time to extinction. Sensitivity to forage gaps of 15 days was highest in June or July even if otherwise forage availability was sufficient to survive. Forage availability affected colonies via cascading effects on queen's egg-laying rate, reduction of new-emerging brood stages developing into adult workers, pollen debt, lack of workforce for nursing, and reduced foraging activity. Forage gaps in July led to reduction in egg-laying and increased mortality of brood stages at a time when the queen's seasonal egg-laying rate is at its maximum, leading to colony failure over time. Our results demonstrate that badly timed forage gaps interacting with poor overall forage supply reduce honeybee colony resilience. Existing regulation mechanisms which in principle enable colonies to cope with varying forage supply in a given landscape and year, such as a reduction in egg-laying, have only a certain capacity. Our results are hypothetical, as they are obtained from simplified landscape settings, but they are consistent with existing empirical knowledge. They offer ample opportunities for testing the predicted effects of forage stress in controlled experiments.},
  language  = {en}
}