@misc{MetinDungSchroeteretal.2018,
  author    = {Metin, Ayse Duha and Dung, Nguyen Viet and Schr{\"o}ter, Kai and Guse, Bj{\"o}rn and Apel, Heiko and Kreibich, Heidi and Vorogushyn, Sergiy and Merz, Bruno},
  title     = {How do changes along the risk chain affect flood risk?},
  series = {Postprints der Universit{\"a}t Potsdam : Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe},
  journal   = {Postprints der Universit{\"a}t Potsdam : Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe},
  number    = {1067},
  issn      = {1866-8372},
  doi       = {10.25932/publishup-46879},
  url       = {http://nbn-resolving.de/urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-468790},
  pages     = {22},
  year      = {2018},
  abstract  = {Flood risk is impacted by a range of physical and socio-economic processes. Hence, the quantification of flood risk ideally considers the complete flood risk chain, from atmospheric processes through catchment and river system processes to damage mechanisms in the affected areas. Although it is generally accepted that a multitude of changes along the risk chain can occur and impact flood risk, there is a lack of knowledge of how and to what extent changes in influencing factors propagate through the chain and finally affect flood risk. To fill this gap, we present a comprehensive sensitivity analysis which considers changes in all risk components, i.e. changes in climate, catchment, river system, land use, assets, and vulnerability. The application of this framework to the mesoscale Mulde catchment in Germany shows that flood risk can vary dramatically as a consequence of plausible change scenarios. It further reveals that components that have not received much attention, such as changes in dike systems or in vulnerability, may outweigh changes in often investigated components, such as climate. Although the specific results are conditional on the case study area and the selected assumptions, they emphasize the need for a broader consideration of potential drivers of change in a comprehensive way. Hence, our approach contributes to a better understanding of how the different risk components influence the overall flood risk.},
  language  = {en}
}
@article{MetinNguyenVietDungSchroeteretal.2018,
  author    = {Metin, Ayse Duha and Nguyen Viet Dung, and Schr{\"o}ter, Kai and Guse, Bj{\"o}rn and Apel, Heiko and Kreibich, Heidi and Vorogushyn, Sergiy and Merz, Bruno},
  title     = {How do changes along the risk chain affect flood risk?},
  series = {Natural hazards and earth system sciences},
  volume    = {18},
  journal   = {Natural hazards and earth system sciences},
  number    = {11},
  publisher = {Copernicus},
  address   = {G{\"o}ttingen},
  issn      = {1561-8633},
  doi       = {10.5194/nhess-18-3089-2018},
  pages     = {3089 -- 3108},
  year      = {2018},
  abstract  = {Flood risk is impacted by a range of physical and socio-economic processes. Hence, the quantification of flood risk ideally considers the complete flood risk chain, from atmospheric processes through catchment and river system processes to damage mechanisms in the affected areas. Although it is generally accepted that a multitude of changes along the risk chain can occur and impact flood risk, there is a lack of knowledge of how and to what extent changes in influencing factors propagate through the chain and finally affect flood risk. To fill this gap, we present a comprehensive sensitivity analysis which considers changes in all risk components, i.e. changes in climate, catchment, river system, land use, assets, and vulnerability. The application of this framework to the mesoscale Mulde catchment in Germany shows that flood risk can vary dramatically as a consequence of plausible change scenarios. It further reveals that components that have not received much attention, such as changes in dike systems or in vulnerability, may outweigh changes in often investigated components, such as climate. Although the specific results are conditional on the case study area and the selected assumptions, they emphasize the need for a broader consideration of potential drivers of change in a comprehensive way. Hence, our approach contributes to a better understanding of how the different risk components influence the overall flood risk.},
  language  = {en}
}
@article{MerzApelDungNguyenetal.2018,
  author    = {Merz, Bruno and Apel, Heiko and Dung Nguyen, Viet-Dung and Falter, Daniela and Guse, Bj{\"o}rn and Hundecha, Yeshewatesfa and Kreibich, Heidi and Schr{\"o}ter, Kai and Vorogushyn, Sergiy},
  title     = {From precipitation to damage},
  series = {Global flood hazard : applications in modeling, mapping and forecasting},
  volume    = {233},
  journal   = {Global flood hazard : applications in modeling, mapping and forecasting},
  publisher = {American Geophysical Union},
  address   = {Washington},
  isbn      = {978-1-119-21788-6},
  issn      = {0065-8448},
  doi       = {10.1002/9781119217886.ch10},
  pages     = {169 -- 183},
  year      = {2018},
  abstract  = {Flood risk assessments for large river basins often involve piecing together smaller-scale assessments leading to erroneous risk statements. We describe a coupled model chain for quantifying flood risk at the scale of 100,000 km(2). It consists of a catchment model, a 1D-2D river network model, and a loss model. We introduce the model chain and present two applications. The first application for the Elbe River basin with an area of 66,000 km(2) demonstrates that it is feasible to simulate the complete risk chain for large river basins in a continuous simulation mode with high temporal and spatial resolution. In the second application, RFM is coupled to a multisite weather generator and applied to the Mulde catchment with an area of 6,000 km(2). This approach is able to provide a very long time series of spatially heterogeneous patterns of precipitation, discharge, inundation, and damage. These patterns respect the spatial correlation of the different processes and are suitable to derive large-scale risk estimates. We discuss how the RFM approach can be transferred to the continental scale.},
  language  = {en}
}