@article{TaalStPourcainThieringetal.2012,
  author    = {Taal, H. Rob and St Pourcain, Beate and Thiering, Elisabeth and Das, Shikta and Mook-Kanamori, Dennis O. and Warrington, Nicole M. and Kaakinen, Marika and Kreiner-Moller, Eskil and Bradfield, Jonathan P. and Freathy, Rachel M. and Geller, Frank and Guxens, Monica and Cousminer, Diana L. and Kerkhof, Marjan and Timpson, Nicholas J. and Ikram, M. Arfan and Beilin, Lawrence J. and Bonnelykke, Klaus and Buxton, Jessica L. and Charoen, Pimphen and Chawes, Bo Lund Krogsgaard and Eriksson, Johan and Evans, David M. and Hofman, Albert and Kemp, John P. and Kim, Cecilia E. and Klopp, Norman and Lahti, Jari and Lye, Stephen J. and McMahon, George and Mentch, Frank D. and Mueller-Nurasyid, Martina and O'Reilly, Paul F. and Prokopenko, Inga and Rivadeneira, Fernando and Steegers, Eric A. P. and Sunyer, Jordi and Tiesler, Carla and Yaghootkar, Hanieh and Breteler, Monique M. B. and Debette, Stephanie and Fornage, Myriam and Gudnason, Vilmundur and Launer, Lenore J. and van der Lugt, Aad and Mosley, Thomas H. and Seshadri, Sudha and Smith, Albert V. and Vernooij, Meike W. and Blakemore, Alexandra I. F. and Chiavacci, Rosetta M. and Feenstra, Bjarke and Fernandez-Banet, Julio and Grant, Struan F. A. and Hartikainen, Anna-Liisa and van der Heijden, Albert J. and Iniguez, Carmen and Lathrop, Mark and McArdle, Wendy L. and Molgaard, Anne and Newnham, John P. and Palmer, Lyle J. and Palotie, Aarno and Pouta, Annneli and Ring, Susan M. and Sovio, Ulla and Standl, Marie and Uitterlinden, Andre G. and Wichmann, H-Erich and Vissing, Nadja Hawwa and DeCarli, Charles and van Duijn, Cornelia M. and McCarthy, Mark I. and Koppelman, Gerard H. and Estivill, Xavier and Hattersley, Andrew T. and Melbye, Mads and Bisgaard, Hans and Pennell, Craig E. and Widen, Elisabeth and Hakonarson, Hakon and Smith, George Davey and Heinrich, Joachim and Jarvelin, Marjo-Riitta and Jaddoe, Vincent W. V. and Adair, Linda S. and Ang, Wei and Atalay, Mustafa and van Beijsterveldt, Toos and Bergen, Nienke and Benke, Kelly and Berry, Diane J. and Bradfield, Jonathan P. and Charoen, Pimphen and Coin, Lachlan and Cousminer, Diana L. and Das, Shikta and Davis, Oliver S. P. and Elliott, Paul and Evans, David M. and Feenstra, Bjarke and Flexeder, Claudia and Frayling, Tim and Freathy, Rachel M. and Gaillard, Romy and Geller, Frank and Groen-Blokhuis, Maria and Goh, Liang-Kee and Guxens, Monica and Haworth, Claire M. A. and Hadley, Dexter and Hebebrand, Johannes and Hinney, Anke and Hirschhorn, Joel N. and Holloway, John W. and Holst, Claus and Hottenga, Jouke Jan and Horikoshi, Momoko and Huikari, Ville and Hypponen, Elina and Iniguez, Carmen and Kaakinen, Marika and Kilpelainen, Tuomas O. and Kirin, Mirna and Kowgier, Matthew and Lakka, Hanna-Maaria and Lange, Leslie A. and Lawlor, Debbie A. and Lehtimaki, Terho and Lewin, Alex and Lindgren, Cecilia and Lindi, Virpi and Maggi, Reedik and Marsh, Julie and Middeldorp, Christel and Millwood, Iona and Mook-Kanamori, Dennis O. and Murray, Jeffrey C. and Nivard, Michel and Nohr, Ellen Aagaard and Ntalla, Ioanna and Oken, Emily and O'Reilly, Paul F. and Palmer, Lyle J. and Panoutsopoulou, Kalliope and Pararajasingham, Jennifer and Prokopenko, Inga and Rodriguez, Alina and Salem, Rany M. and Sebert, Sylvain and Siitonen, Niina and Sovio, Ulla and St Pourcain, Beate and Strachan, David P. and Sunyer, Jordi and Taal, H. Rob and Teo, Yik-Ying and Thiering, Elisabeth and Tiesler, Carla and Uitterlinden, Andre G. and Valcarcel, Beatriz and Warrington, Nicole M. and White, Scott and Willemsen, Gonneke and Yaghootkar, Hanieh and Zeggini, Eleftheria and Boomsma, Dorret I. and Cooper, Cyrus and Estivill, Xavier and Gillman, Matthew and Grant, Struan F. A. and Hakonarson, Hakon and Hattersley, Andrew T. and Heinrich, Joachim and Hocher, Berthold and Jaddoe, Vincent W. V. and Jarvelin, Marjo-Riitta and Lakka, Timo A. and McCarthy, Mark I. and Melbye, Mads and Mohlke, Karen L. and Dedoussis, George V. and Ong, Ken K. and Pearson, Ewan R. and Pennell, Craig E. and Price, Thomas S. and Power, Chris and Raitakari, Olli T. and Saw, Seang-Mei and Scherag, Andre and Simell, Olli and Sorensen, Thorkild I. A. and Timpson, Nicholas J. and Widen, Elisabeth and Wilson, James F. and Ang, Wei and van Beijsterveldt, Toos and Bergen, Nienke and Benke, Kelly and Berry, Diane J. and Bradfield, Jonathan P. and Charoen, Pimphen and Coin, Lachlan and Cousminer, Diana L. and Das, Shikta and Elliott, Paul and Evans, David M. and Frayling, Tim and Freathy, Rachel M. and Gaillard, Romy and Groen-Blokhuis, Maria and Guxens, Monica and Hadley, Dexter and Hottenga, Jouke Jan and Huikari, Ville and Hypponen, Elina and Kaakinen, Marika and Kowgier, Matthew and Lawlor, Debbie A. and Lewin, Alex and Lindgren, Cecilia and Marsh, Julie and Middeldorp, Christel and Millwood, Iona and Mook-Kanamori, Dennis O. and Nivard, Michel and O'Reilly, Paul F. and Palmer, Lyle J. and Prokopenko, Inga and Rodriguez, Alina and Sebert, Sylvain and Sovio, Ulla and St Pourcain, Beate and Standl, Marie and Strachan, David P. and Sunyer, Jordi and Taal, H. Rob and Thiering, Elisabeth and Tiesler, Carla and Uitterlinden, Andre G. and Valcarcel, Beatriz and Warrington, Nicole M. and White, Scott and Willemsen, Gonneke and Yaghootkar, Hanieh and Boomsma, Dorret I. and Estivill, Xavier and Grant, Struan F. A. and Hakonarson, Hakon and Hattersley, Andrew T. and Heinrich, Joachim and Jaddoe, Vincent W. V. and Jarvelin, Marjo-Riitta and McCarthy, Mark I. and Pennell, Craig E. and Power, Chris and Timpson, Nicholas J. and Widen, Elisabeth and Ikram, M. Arfan and Fornage, Myriam and Smith, Albert V. and Seshadri, Sudha and Schmidt, Reinhold and Debette, Stephanie and Vrooman, Henri A. and Sigurdsson, Sigurdur and Ropele, Stefan and Coker, Laura H. and Longstreth, W. T. and Niessen, Wiro J. and DeStefano, Anita L. and Beiser, Alexa and Zijdenbos, Alex P. and Struchalin, Maksim and Jack, Clifford R. and Nalls, Mike A. and Au, Rhoda and Hofman, Albert and Gudnason, Haukur and van der Lugt, Aad and Harris, Tamara B. and Meeks, William M. and Vernooij, Meike W. and van Buchem, Mark A. and Catellier, Diane and Gudnason, Vilmundur and Windham, B. Gwen and Wolf, Philip A. and van Duijn, Cornelia M. and Mosley, Thomas H. and Schmidt, Helena and Launer, Lenore J. and Breteler, Monique M. B. and DeCarli, Charles},
  title     = {Common variants at 12q15 and 12q24 are associated with infant head circumference},
  series = {Nature genetics},
  volume    = {44},
  journal   = {Nature genetics},
  number    = {5},
  publisher = {Nature Publ. Group},
  address   = {New York},
  organization    = {Cohorts Heart Aging Res Genetic Ep, Early Genetics Lifecourse Epidemio, Early Growth Genetics EGG Consorti},
  issn      = {1061-4036},
  doi       = {10.1038/ng.2238},
  pages     = {532 -- +},
  year      = {2012},
  abstract  = {To identify genetic variants associated with head circumference in infancy, we performed a meta-analysis of seven genome-wide association studies (GWAS) (N = 10,768 individuals of European ancestry enrolled in pregnancy and/or birth cohorts) and followed up three lead signals in six replication studies (combined N = 19,089). rs7980687 on chromosome 12q24 (P = 8.1 x 10(-9)) and rs1042725 on chromosome 12q15 (P = 2.8 x 10(-10)) were robustly associated with head circumference in infancy. Although these loci have previously been associated with adult height(1), their effects on infant head circumference were largely independent of height (P = 3.8 x 10(-7) for rs7980687 and P = 1.3 x 10(-7) for rs1042725 after adjustment for infant height). A third signal, rs11655470 on chromosome 17q21, showed suggestive evidence of association with head circumference (P = 3.9 x 10(-6)). SNPs correlated to the 17q21 signal have shown genome-wide association with adult intracranial volume(2), Parkinson's disease and other neurodegenerative diseases(3-5), indicating that a common genetic variant in this region might link early brain growth with neurological disease in later life.},
  language  = {en}
}
@article{MiddeldorpMahajanHorikoshietal.2019,
  author    = {Middeldorp, Christel M. and Mahajan, Anubha and Horikoshi, Momoko and Robertson, Neil R. and Beaumont, Robin N. and Bradfield, Jonathan P. and Bustamante, Mariona and Cousminer, Diana L. and Day, Felix R. and De Silva, N. Maneka and Guxens, Monica and Mook-Kanamori, Dennis O. and St Pourcain, Beate and Warrington, Nicole M. and Adair, Linda S. and Ahlqvist, Emma and Ahluwalia, Tarunveer Singh and Almgren, Peter and Ang, Wei and Atalay, Mustafa and Auvinen, Juha and Bartels, Meike and Beckmann, Jacques S. and Bilbao, Jose Ramon and Bond, Tom and Borja, Judith B. and Cavadino, Alana and Charoen, Pimphen and Chen, Zhanghua and Coin, Lachlan and Cooper, Cyrus and Curtin, John A. and Custovic, Adnan and Das, Shikta and Davies, Gareth E. and Dedoussis, George V. and Duijts, Liesbeth and Eastwood, Peter R. and Eliasen, Anders U. and Elliott, Paul and Eriksson, Johan G. and Estivill, Xavier and Fadista, Joao and Fedko, Iryna O. and Frayling, Timothy M. and Gaillard, Romy and Gauderman, W. James and Geller, Frank and Gilliland, Frank and Gilsanz, Vincente and Granell, Raquel and Grarup, Niels and Groop, Leif and Hadley, Dexter and Hakonarson, Hakon and Hansen, Torben and Hartman, Catharina A. and Hattersley, Andrew T. and Hayes, M. Geoffrey and Hebebrand, Johannes and Heinrich, Joachim and Helgeland, Oyvind and Henders, Anjali K. and Henderson, John and Henriksen, Tine B. and Hirschhorn, Joel N. and Hivert, Marie-France and Hocher, Berthold and Holloway, John W. and Holt, Patrick and Hottenga, Jouke-Jan and Hypponen, Elina and Iniguez, Carmen and Johansson, Stefan and Jugessur, Astanand and Kahonen, Mika and Kalkwarf, Heidi J. and Kaprio, Jaakko and Karhunen, Ville and Kemp, John P. and Kerkhof, Marjan and Koppelman, Gerard H. and Korner, Antje and Kotecha, Sailesh and Kreiner-Moller, Eskil and Kulohoma, Benard and Kumar, Ashish and Kutalik, Zoltan and Lahti, Jari and Lappe, Joan M. and Larsson, Henrik and Lehtimaki, Terho and Lewin, Alexandra M. and Li, Jin and Lichtenstein, Paul and Lindgren, Cecilia M. and Lindi, Virpi and Linneberg, Allan and Liu, Xueping and Liu, Jun and Lowe, William L. and Lundstrom, Sebastian and Lyytikainen, Leo-Pekka and Ma, Ronald C. W. and Mace, Aurelien and Magi, Reedik and Magnus, Per and Mamun, Abdullah A. and Mannikko, Minna and Martin, Nicholas G. and Mbarek, Hamdi and McCarthy, Nina S. and Medland, Sarah E. and Melbye, Mads and Melen, Erik and Mohlke, Karen L. and Monnereau, Claire and Morgen, Camilla S. and Morris, Andrew P. and Murray, Jeffrey C. and Myhre, Ronny and Najman, Jackob M. and Nivard, Michel G. and Nohr, Ellen A. and Nolte, Ilja M. and Ntalla, Ioanna and Oberfield, Sharon E. and Oken, Emily and Oldehinkel, Albertine J. and Pahkala, Katja and Palviainen, Teemu and Panoutsopoulou, Kalliope and Pedersen, Oluf and Pennell, Craig E. and Pershagen, Goran and Pitkanen, Niina and Plomin, Robert and Power, Christine and Prasad, Rashmi B. and Prokopenko, Inga and Pulkkinen, Lea and Raikkonen, Katri and Raitakari, Olli T. and Reynolds, Rebecca M. and Richmond, Rebecca C. and Rivadeneira, Fernando and Rodriguez, Alina and Rose, Richard J. and Salem, Rany and Santa-Marina, Loreto and Saw, Seang-Mei and Schnurr, Theresia M. and Scott, James G. and Selzam, Saskia and Shepherd, John A. and Simpson, Angela and Skotte, Line and Sleiman, Patrick M. A. and Snieder, Harold and Sorensen, Thorkild I. A. and Standl, Marie and Steegers, Eric A. P. and Strachan, David P. and Straker, Leon and Strandberg, Timo and Taylor, Michelle and Teo, Yik-Ying and Thiering, Elisabeth and Torrent, Maties and Tyrrell, Jessica and Uitterlinden, Andre G. and van Beijsterveldt, Toos and van der Most, Peter J. and van Duijn, Cornelia M. and Viikari, Jorma and Vilor-Tejedor, Natalia and Vogelezang, Suzanne and Vonk, Judith M. and Vrijkotte, Tanja G. M. and Vuoksimaa, Eero and Wang, Carol A. and Watkins, William J. and Wichmann, H-Erich and Willemsen, Gonneke and Williams, Gail M. and Wilson, James F. and Wray, Naomi R. and Xu, Shujing and Xu, Cheng-Jian and Yaghootkar, Hanieh and Yi, Lu and Zafarmand, Mohammad Hadi and Zeggini, Eleftheria and Zemel, Babette S. and Hinney, Anke and Lakka, Timo A. and Whitehouse, Andrew J. O. and Sunyer, Jordi and Widen, Elisabeth E. and Feenstra, Bjarke and Sebert, Sylvain and Jacobsson, Bo and Njolstad, Pal R. and Stoltenberg, Camilla and Smith, George Davey and Lawlor, Debbie A. and Paternoster, Lavinia and Timpson, Nicholas J. and Ong, Ken K. and Bisgaard, Hans and Bonnelykke, Klaus and Jaddoe, Vincent W. V. and Tiemeier, Henning and Jarvelin, Marjo-Riitta and Evans, David M. and Perry, John R. B. and Grant, Struan F. A. and Boomsma, Dorret I. and Freathy, Rachel M. and McCarthy, Mark I. and Felix, Janine F.},
  title     = {The Early Growth Genetics (EGG) and EArly Genetics and Lifecourse Epidemiology (EAGLE) consortia},
  series = {European journal of epidemiology},
  volume    = {34},
  journal   = {European journal of epidemiology},
  number    = {3},
  publisher = {Springer},
  address   = {Dordrecht},
  organization    = {EArly Genetics Lifecourse EGG Consortium EGG Membership EAGLE Membership},
  issn      = {0393-2990},
  doi       = {10.1007/s10654-019-00502-9},
  pages     = {279 -- 300},
  year      = {2019},
  abstract  = {The impact of many unfavorable childhood traits or diseases, such as low birth weight and mental disorders, is not limited to childhood and adolescence, as they are also associated with poor outcomes in adulthood, such as cardiovascular disease. Insight into the genetic etiology of childhood and adolescent traits and disorders may therefore provide new perspectives, not only on how to improve wellbeing during childhood, but also how to prevent later adverse outcomes. To achieve the sample sizes required for genetic research, the Early Growth Genetics (EGG) and EArly Genetics and Lifecourse Epidemiology (EAGLE) consortia were established. The majority of the participating cohorts are longitudinal population-based samples, but other cohorts with data on early childhood phenotypes are also involved. Cohorts often have a broad focus and collect(ed) data on various somatic and psychiatric traits as well as environmental factors. Genetic variants have been successfully identified for multiple traits, for example, birth weight, atopic dermatitis, childhood BMI, allergic sensitization, and pubertal growth. Furthermore, the results have shown that genetic factors also partly underlie the association with adult traits. As sample sizes are still increasing, it is expected that future analyses will identify additional variants. This, in combination with the development of innovative statistical methods, will provide detailed insight on the mechanisms underlying the transition from childhood to adult disorders. Both consortia welcome new collaborations. Policies and contact details are available from the corresponding authors of this manuscript and/or the consortium websites.},
  language  = {en}
}
@article{IkramFornageSmithetal.2012,
  author    = {Ikram, M. Arfan and Fornage, Myriam and Smith, Albert V. and Seshadri, Sudha and Schmidt, Reinhold and Debette, Stephanie and Vrooman, Henri A. and Sigurdsson, Sigurdur and Ropele, Stefan and Taal, H. Rob and Mook-Kanamori, Dennis O. and Coker, Laura H. and Longstreth, W. T. and Niessen, Wiro J. and DeStefano, Anita L. and Beiser, Alexa and Zijdenbos, Alex P. and Struchalin, Maksim and Jack, Clifford R. and Rivadeneira, Fernando and Uitterlinden, Andre G. and Knopman, David S. and Hartikainen, Anna-Liisa and Pennell, Craig E. and Thiering, Elisabeth and Steegers, Eric A. P. and Hakonarson, Hakon and Heinrich, Joachim and Palmer, Lyle J. and Jarvelin, Marjo-Riitta and McCarthy, Mark I. and Grant, Struan F. A. and St Pourcain, Beate and Timpson, Nicholas J. and Smith, George Davey and Sovio, Ulla and Nalls, Mike A. and Au, Rhoda and Hofman, Albert and Gudnason, Haukur and van der Lugt, Aad and Harris, Tamara B. and Meeks, William M. and Vernooij, Meike W. and van Buchem, Mark A. and Catellier, Diane and Jaddoe, Vincent W. V. and Gudnason, Vilmundur and Windham, B. Gwen and Wolf, Philip A. and van Duijn, Cornelia M. and Mosley, Thomas H. and Schmidt, Helena and Launer, Lenore J. and Breteler, Monique M. B. and DeCarli, Charles and Adair, Linda S. and Ang, Wei and Atalay, Mustafa and vanBeijsterveldt, Toos and Bergen, Nienke and Benke, Kelly and Berry, Diane J. and Coin, Lachlan and Davis, Oliver S. P. and Elliott, Paul and Flexeder, Claudia and Frayling, Tim and Gaillard, Romy and Groen-Blokhuis, Maria and Goh, Liang-Kee and Haworth, Claire M. A. and Hadley, Dexter and Hebebrand, Johannes and Hinney, Anke and Hirschhorn, Joel N. and Holloway, John W. and Holst, Claus and Hottenga, Jouke Jan and Horikoshi, Momoko and Huikari, Ville and Hypponen, Elina and Kilpelainen, Tuomas O. and Kirin, Mirna and Kowgier, Matthew and Lakka, Hanna-Maaria and Lange, Leslie A. and Lawlor, Debbie A. and Lehtimaki, Terho and Lewin, Alex and Lindgren, Cecilia and Lindi, Virpi and Maggi, Reedik and Marsh, Julie and Middeldorp, Christel and Millwood, Iona and Murray, Jeffrey C. and Nivard, Michel and Nohr, Ellen Aagaard and Ntalla, Ioanna and Oken, Emily and Panoutsopoulou, Kalliope and Pararajasingham, Jennifer and Rodriguez, Alina and Salem, Rany M. and Sebert, Sylvain and Siitonen, Niina and Strachan, David P. and Teo, Yik-Ying and Valcarcel, Beatriz and Willemsen, Gonneke and Zeggini, Eleftheria and Boomsma, Dorret I. and Cooper, Cyrus and Gillman, Matthew and Hocher, Berthold and Lakka, Timo A. and Mohlke, Karen L. and Dedoussis, George V. and Ong, Ken K. and Pearson, Ewan R. and Price, Thomas S. and Power, Chris and Raitakari, Olli T. and Saw, Seang-Mei and Scherag, Andre and Simell, Olli and Sorensen, Thorkild I. A. and Wilson, James F.},
  title     = {Common variants at 6q22 and 17q21 are associated with intracranial volume},
  series = {Nature genetics},
  volume    = {44},
  journal   = {Nature genetics},
  number    = {5},
  publisher = {Nature Publ. Group},
  address   = {New York},
  organization    = {Early Growth Genetics EGG Consorti, Cohorts Heart Aging Res Genomic Ep},
  issn      = {1061-4036},
  doi       = {10.1038/ng.2245},
  pages     = {539 -- +},
  year      = {2012},
  abstract  = {During aging, intracranial volume remains unchanged and represents maximally attained brain size, while various interacting biological phenomena lead to brain volume loss. Consequently, intracranial volume and brain volume in late life reflect different genetic influences. Our genome-wide association study (GWAS) in 8,175 community-dwelling elderly persons did not reveal any associations at genome-wide significance (P < 5 x 10(-8)) for brain volume. In contrast, intracranial volume was significantly associated with two loci: rs4273712 (P = 3.4 x 10(-11)), a known height-associated locus on chromosome 6q22, and rs9915547 (P = 1.5 x 10(-12)), localized to the inversion on chromosome 17q21. We replicated the associations of these loci with intracranial volume in a separate sample of 1,752 elderly persons (P = 1.1 x 10(-3) for 6q22 and 1.2 x 10(-3) for 17q21). Furthermore, we also found suggestive associations of the 17q21 locus with head circumference in 10,768 children (mean age of 14.5 months). Our data identify two loci associated with head size, with the inversion at 17q21 also likely to be involved in attaining maximal brain size.},
  language  = {en}
}
@article{WuttkeLiLietal.2019,
  author    = {Wuttke, Matthias and Li, Yong and Li, Man and Sieber, Karsten B. and Feitosa, Mary F. and Gorski, Mathias and Tin, Adrienne and Wang, Lihua and Chu, Audrey Y. and Hoppmann, Anselm and Kirsten, Holger and Giri, Ayush and Chai, Jin-Fang and Sveinbjornsson, Gardar and Tayo, Bamidele O. and Nutile, Teresa and Fuchsberger, Christian and Marten, Jonathan and Cocca, Massimiliano and Ghasemi, Sahar and Xu, Yizhe and Horn, Katrin and Noce, Damia and Van der Most, Peter J. and Sedaghat, Sanaz and Yu, Zhi and Akiyama, Masato and Afaq, Saima and Ahluwalia, Tarunveer Singh and Almgren, Peter and Amin, Najaf and Arnlov, Johan and Bakker, Stephan J. L. and Bansal, Nisha and Baptista, Daniela and Bergmann, Sven and Biggs, Mary L. and Biino, Ginevra and Boehnke, Michael and Boerwinkle, Eric and Boissel, Mathilde and B{\"o}ttinger, Erwin and Boutin, Thibaud S. and Brenner, Hermann and Brumat, Marco and Burkhardt, Ralph and Butterworth, Adam S. and Campana, Eric and Campbell, Archie and Campbell, Harry and Canouil, Mickael and Carroll, Robert J. and Catamo, Eulalia and Chambers, John C. and Chee, Miao-Ling and Chee, Miao-Li and Chen, Xu and Cheng, Ching-Yu and Cheng, Yurong and Christensen, Kaare and Cifkova, Renata and Ciullo, Marina and Concas, Maria Pina and Cook, James P. and Coresh, Josef and Corre, Tanguy and Sala, Cinzia Felicita and Cusi, Daniele and Danesh, John and Daw, E. Warwick and De Borst, Martin H. and De Grandi, Alessandro and De Mutsert, Renee and De Vries, Aiko P. J. and Degenhardt, Frauke and Delgado, Graciela and Demirkan, Ayse and Di Angelantonio, Emanuele and Dittrich, Katalin and Divers, Jasmin and Dorajoo, Rajkumar and Eckardt, Kai-Uwe and Ehret, Georg and Elliott, Paul and Endlich, Karlhans and Evans, Michele K. and Felix, Janine F. and Foo, Valencia Hui Xian and Franco, Oscar H. and Franke, Andre and Freedman, Barry I. and Freitag-Wolf, Sandra and Friedlander, Yechiel and Froguel, Philippe and Gansevoort, Ron T. and Gao, He and Gasparini, Paolo and Gaziano, J. Michael and Giedraitis, Vilmantas and Gieger, Christian and Girotto, Giorgia and Giulianini, Franco and Gogele, Martin and Gordon, Scott D. and Gudbjartsson, Daniel F. and Gudnason, Vilmundur and Haller, Toomas and Hamet, Pavel and Harris, Tamara B. and Hartman, Catharina A. and Hayward, Caroline and Hellwege, Jacklyn N. and Heng, Chew-Kiat and Hicks, Andrew A. and Hofer, Edith and Huang, Wei and Hutri-Kahonen, Nina and Hwang, Shih-Jen and Ikram, M. Arfan and Indridason, Olafur S. and Ingelsson, Erik and Ising, Marcus and Jaddoe, Vincent W. V. and Jakobsdottir, Johanna and Jonas, Jost B. and Joshi, Peter K. and Josyula, Navya Shilpa and Jung, Bettina and Kahonen, Mika and Kamatani, Yoichiro and Kammerer, Candace M. and Kanai, Masahiro and Kastarinen, Mika and Kerr, Shona M. and Khor, Chiea-Chuen and Kiess, Wieland and Kleber, Marcus E. and Koenig, Wolfgang and Kooner, Jaspal S. and Korner, Antje and Kovacs, Peter and Kraja, Aldi T. and Krajcoviechova, Alena and Kramer, Holly and Kramer, Bernhard K. and Kronenberg, Florian and Kubo, Michiaki and Kuhnel, Brigitte and Kuokkanen, Mikko and Kuusisto, Johanna and La Bianca, Martina and Laakso, Markku and Lange, Leslie A. and Langefeld, Carl D. and Lee, Jeannette Jen-Mai and Lehne, Benjamin and Lehtimaki, Terho and Lieb, Wolfgang and Lim, Su-Chi and Lind, Lars and Lindgren, Cecilia M. and Liu, Jun and Liu, Jianjun and Loeffler, Markus and Loos, Ruth J. F. and Lucae, Susanne and Lukas, Mary Ann and Lyytikainen, Leo-Pekka and Magi, Reedik and Magnusson, Patrik K. E. and Mahajan, Anubha and Martin, Nicholas G. and Martins, Jade and Marz, Winfried and Mascalzoni, Deborah and Matsuda, Koichi and Meisinger, Christa and Meitinger, Thomas and Melander, Olle and Metspalu, Andres and Mikaelsdottir, Evgenia K. and Milaneschi, Yuri and Miliku, Kozeta and Mishra, Pashupati P. and Program, V. A. Million Veteran and Mohlke, Karen L. and Mononen, Nina and Montgomery, Grant W. and Mook-Kanamori, Dennis O. and Mychaleckyj, Josyf C. and Nadkarni, Girish N. and Nalls, Mike A. and Nauck, Matthias and Nikus, Kjell and Ning, Boting and Nolte, Ilja M. and Noordam, Raymond and Olafsson, Isleifur and Oldehinkel, Albertine J. and Orho-Melander, Marju and Ouwehand, Willem H. and Padmanabhan, Sandosh and Palmer, Nicholette D. and Palsson, Runolfur and Penninx, Brenda W. J. H. and Perls, Thomas and Perola, Markus and Pirastu, Mario and Pirastu, Nicola and Pistis, Giorgio and Podgornaia, Anna I. and Polasek, Ozren and Ponte, Belen and Porteous, David J. and Poulain, Tanja and Pramstaller, Peter P. and Preuss, Michael H. and Prins, Bram P. and Province, Michael A. and Rabelink, Ton J. and Raffield, Laura M. and Raitakari, Olli T. and Reilly, Dermot F. and Rettig, Rainer and Rheinberger, Myriam and Rice, Kenneth M. and Ridker, Paul M. and Rivadeneira, Fernando and Rizzi, Federica and Roberts, David J. and Robino, Antonietta and Rossing, Peter and Rudan, Igor and Rueedi, Rico and Ruggiero, Daniela and Ryan, Kathleen A. and Saba, Yasaman and Sabanayagam, Charumathi and Salomaa, Veikko and Salvi, Erika and Saum, Kai-Uwe and Schmidt, Helena and Schmidt, Reinhold and Ben Schottker, and Schulz, Christina-Alexandra and Schupf, Nicole and Shaffer, Christian M. and Shi, Yuan and Smith, Albert V. and Smith, Blair H. and Soranzo, Nicole and Spracklen, Cassandra N. and Strauch, Konstantin and Stringham, Heather M. and Stumvoll, Michael and Svensson, Per O. and Szymczak, Silke and Tai, E-Shyong and Tajuddin, Salman M. and Tan, Nicholas Y. Q. and Taylor, Kent D. and Teren, Andrej and Tham, Yih-Chung and Thiery, Joachim and Thio, Chris H. L. and Thomsen, Hauke and Thorleifsson, Gudmar and Toniolo, Daniela and Tonjes, Anke and Tremblay, Johanne and Tzoulaki, Ioanna and Uitterlinden, Andre G. and Vaccargiu, Simona and Van Dam, Rob M. and Van der Harst, Pim and Van Duijn, Cornelia M. and Edward, Digna R. Velez and Verweij, Niek and Vogelezang, Suzanne and Volker, Uwe and Vollenweider, Peter and Waeber, Gerard and Waldenberger, Melanie and Wallentin, Lars and Wang, Ya Xing and Wang, Chaolong and Waterworth, Dawn M. and Bin Wei, Wen and White, Harvey and Whitfield, John B. and Wild, Sarah H. and Wilson, James F. and Wojczynski, Mary K. and Wong, Charlene and Wong, Tien-Yin and Xu, Liang and Yang, Qiong and Yasuda, Masayuki and Yerges-Armstrong, Laura M. and Zhang, Weihua and Zonderman, Alan B. and Rotter, Jerome I. and Bochud, Murielle and Psaty, Bruce M. and Vitart, Veronique and Wilson, James G. and Dehghan, Abbas and Parsa, Afshin and Chasman, Daniel I. and Ho, Kevin and Morris, Andrew P. and Devuyst, Olivier and Akilesh, Shreeram and Pendergrass, Sarah A. and Sim, Xueling and Boger, Carsten A. and Okada, Yukinori and Edwards, Todd L. and Snieder, Harold and Stefansson, Kari and Hung, Adriana M. and Heid, Iris M. and Scholz, Markus and Teumer, Alexander and Kottgen, Anna and Pattaro, Cristian},
  title     = {A catalog of genetic loci associated with kidney function from analyses of a million individuals},
  series = {Nature genetics},
  volume    = {51},
  journal   = {Nature genetics},
  number    = {6},
  publisher = {Nature Publ. Group},
  address   = {New York},
  organization    = {Lifelines COHort Study},
  issn      = {1061-4036},
  doi       = {10.1038/s41588-019-0407-x},
  pages     = {957 -- +},
  year      = {2019},
  abstract  = {Chronic kidney disease (CKD) is responsible for a public health burden with multi-systemic complications. Through transancestry meta-analysis of genome-wide association studies of estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) and independent replication (n = 1,046,070), we identified 264 associated loci (166 new). Of these,147 were likely to be relevant for kidney function on the basis of associations with the alternative kidney function marker blood urea nitrogen (n = 416,178). Pathway and enrichment analyses, including mouse models with renal phenotypes, support the kidney as the main target organ. A genetic risk score for lower eGFR was associated with clinically diagnosed CKD in 452,264 independent individuals. Colocalization analyses of associations with eGFR among 783,978 European-ancestry individuals and gene expression across 46 human tissues, including tubulo-interstitial and glomerular kidney compartments, identified 17 genes differentially expressed in kidney. Fine-mapping highlighted missense driver variants in 11 genes and kidney-specific regulatory variants. These results provide a comprehensive priority list of molecular targets for translational research.},
  language  = {en}
}
@article{JanssenArhonditsisBeusenetal.2015,
  author    = {Janssen, Annette B. G. and Arhonditsis, George B. and Beusen, Arthur and Bolding, Karsten and Bruce, Louise and Bruggeman, Jorn and Couture, Raoul-Marie and Downing, Andrea S. and Elliott, J. Alex and Frassl, Marieke A. and Gal, Gideon and Gerla, Daan J. and Hipsey, Matthew R. and Hu, Fenjuan and Ives, Stephen C. and Janse, Jan H. and Jeppesen, Erik and Joehnk, Klaus D. and Kneis, David and Kong, Xiangzhen and Kuiper, Jan J. and Lehmann, Moritz K. and Lemmen, Carsten and Oezkundakci, Deniz and Petzoldt, Thomas and Rinke, Karsten and Robson, Barbara J. and Sachse, Rene and Schep, Sebastiaan A. and Schmid, Martin and Scholten, Huub and Teurlincx, Sven and Trolle, Dennis and Troost, Tineke A. and Van Dam, Anne A. and Van Gerven, Luuk P. A. and Weijerman, Mariska and Wells, Scott A. and Mooij, Wolf M.},
  title     = {Exploring, exploiting and evolving diversity of aquatic ecosystem models: a community perspective},
  series = {Aquatic ecology : the international forum covering research in freshwater and marine environments},
  volume    = {49},
  journal   = {Aquatic ecology : the international forum covering research in freshwater and marine environments},
  number    = {4},
  publisher = {Springer},
  address   = {Dordrecht},
  issn      = {1386-2588},
  doi       = {10.1007/s10452-015-9544-1},
  pages     = {513 -- 548},
  year      = {2015},
  abstract  = {Here, we present a community perspective on how to explore, exploit and evolve the diversity in aquatic ecosystem models. These models play an important role in understanding the functioning of aquatic ecosystems, filling in observation gaps and developing effective strategies for water quality management. In this spirit, numerous models have been developed since the 1970s. We set off to explore model diversity by making an inventory among 42 aquatic ecosystem modellers, by categorizing the resulting set of models and by analysing them for diversity. We then focus on how to exploit model diversity by comparing and combining different aspects of existing models. Finally, we discuss how model diversity came about in the past and could evolve in the future. Throughout our study, we use analogies from biodiversity research to analyse and interpret model diversity. We recommend to make models publicly available through open-source policies, to standardize documentation and technical implementation of models, and to compare models through ensemble modelling and interdisciplinary approaches. We end with our perspective on how the field of aquatic ecosystem modelling might develop in the next 5-10 years. To strive for clarity and to improve readability for non-modellers, we include a glossary.},
  language  = {en}
}
@article{AbdrakhmatovWalkerCampbelletal.2016,
  author    = {Abdrakhmatov, Kanatbek E. and Walker, R. T. and Campbell, G. E. and Carr, A. S. and Elliott, A. and Hillemann, Christian and Hollingsworth, J. and Landgraf, Angela and Mackenzie, D. and Mukambayev, A. and Rizza, M. and Sloan, R. A.},
  title     = {Multisegment rupture in the 11 July 1889 Chilik earthquake (M-w 8.0-8.3), Kazakh Tien Shan, interpreted from remote sensing, field survey, and paleoseismic trenching},
  series = {Journal of geophysical research : Solid earth},
  volume    = {121},
  journal   = {Journal of geophysical research : Solid earth},
  publisher = {American Geophysical Union},
  address   = {Washington},
  issn      = {2169-9313},
  doi       = {10.1002/2015JB012763},
  pages     = {4615 -- 4640},
  year      = {2016},
  abstract  = {The 11 July 1889 Chilik earthquake (M-w 8.0-8.3) forms part of a remarkable sequence of large earthquakes in the late nineteenth and early twentieth centuries in the northern Tien Shan. Despite its importance, the source of the 1889 earthquake remains unknown, though the macroseismic epicenter is sited in the Chilik valley, similar to 100 km southeast of Almaty, Kazakhstan (similar to 2 million population). Several short fault segments that have been inferred to have ruptured in 1889 are too short on their own to account for the estimated magnitude. In this paper we perform detailed surveying and trenching of the similar to 30 km long Saty fault, one of the previously inferred sources, and find that it was formed in a single earthquake within the last 700 years, involving surface slip of up to 10 m. The scarp-forming event, likely to be the 1889 earthquake, was the only surface-rupturing event for at least 5000 years and potentially for much longer. From satellite imagery we extend the mapped length of fresh scarps within the 1889 epicentral zone to a total of similar to 175 km, which we also suggest as candidate ruptures from the 1889 earthquake. The 175 km of rupture involves conjugate oblique left-lateral and right-lateral slip on three separate faults, with step overs of several kilometers between them. All three faults were essentially invisible in the Holocene geomorphology prior to the last slip. The recurrence interval between large earthquakes on any of these faults, and presumably on other faults of the Tien Shan, may be longer than the timescale over which the landscape is reset, providing a challenge for delineating sources of future hazard.},
  language  = {en}
}
@misc{MooijTrolleJeppesenetal.2010,
  author    = {Mooij, Wolf M. and Trolle, Dennis and Jeppesen, Erik and Arhonditsis, George B. and Belolipetsky, Pavel V. and Chitamwebwa, Deonatus B. R. and Degermendzhy, Andrey G. and DeAngelis, Donald L. and Domis, Lisette Nicole de Senerpont and Downing, Andrea S. and Elliott, J. Alex and Fragoso Jr., Carlos Ruberto and Gaedke, Ursula and Genova, Svetlana N. and Gulati, Ramesh D. and H{\aa}kanson, Lars and Hamilton, David P. and Hipsey, Matthew R. and 't Hoen, Jochem and H{\"u}lsmann, Stephan and Los, F. Hans and Makler-Pick, Vardit and Petzoldt, Thomas and Prokopkin, Igor G. and Rinke, Karsten and Schep, Sebastiaan A. and Tominaga, Koji and Van Dam, Anne A. and Van Nes, Egbert H. and Wells, Scott A. and Janse, Jan H.},
  title     = {Challenges and opportunities for integrating lake ecosystem modelling approaches},
  series = {Zweitver{\"o}ffentlichungen der Universit{\"a}t Potsdam : Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe},
  journal   = {Zweitver{\"o}ffentlichungen der Universit{\"a}t Potsdam : Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe},
  number    = {1326},
  issn      = {1866-8372},
  doi       = {10.25932/publishup-42983},
  url       = {http://nbn-resolving.de/urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-429839},
  pages     = {35},
  year      = {2010},
  abstract  = {A large number and wide variety of lake ecosystem models have been developed and published during the past four decades. We identify two challenges for making further progress in this field. One such challenge is to avoid developing more models largely following the concept of others ('reinventing the wheel'). The other challenge is to avoid focusing on only one type of model, while ignoring new and diverse approaches that have become available ('having tunnel vision'). In this paper, we aim at improving the awareness of existing models and knowledge of concurrent approaches in lake ecosystem modelling, without covering all possible model tools and avenues. First, we present a broad variety of modelling approaches. To illustrate these approaches, we give brief descriptions of rather arbitrarily selected sets of specific models. We deal with static models (steady state and regression models), complex dynamic models (CAEDYM, CE-QUAL-W2, Delft 3D-ECO, LakeMab, LakeWeb, MyLake, PCLake, PROTECH, SALMO), structurally dynamic models and minimal dynamic models. We also discuss a group of approaches that could all be classified as individual based: super-individual models (Piscator, Charisma), physiologically structured models, stage-structured models and traitbased models. We briefly mention genetic algorithms, neural networks, Kalman filters and fuzzy logic. Thereafter, we zoom in, as an in-depth example, on the multi-decadal development and application of the lake ecosystem model PCLake and related models (PCLake Metamodel, Lake Shira Model, IPH-TRIM3D-PCLake). In the discussion, we argue that while the historical development of each approach and model is understandable given its 'leading principle', there are many opportunities for combining approaches. We take the point of view that a single 'right' approach does not exist and should not be strived for. Instead, multiple modelling approaches, applied concurrently to a given problem, can help develop an integrative view on the functioning of lake ecosystems. We end with a set of specific recommendations that may be of help in the further development of lake ecosystem models.},
  language  = {en}
}
@article{MooijTrolleJeppesenetal.2010,
  author    = {Mooij, Wolf M. and Trolle, Dennis and Jeppesen, Erik and Arhonditsis, George B. and Belolipetsky, Pavel V. and Chitamwebwa, Deonatus B. R. and Degermendzhy, Andrey G. and DeAngelis, Donald L. and Domis, Lisette Nicole de Senerpont and Downing, Andrea S. and Elliott, J. Alex and Fragoso Jr, Carlos Ruberto and Gaedke, Ursula and Genova, Svetlana N. and Gulati, Ramesh D. and H{\aa}kanson, Lars and Hamilton, David P. and Hipsey, Matthew R. and 't Hoen, Jochem and H{\"u}lsmann, Stephan and Los, F. Hans and Makler-Pick, Vardit and Petzoldt, Thomas and Prokopkin, Igor G. and Rinke, Karsten and Schep, Sebastiaan A. and Tominaga, Koji and Van Dam, Anne A. and Van Nes, Egbert H. and Wells, Scott A. and Janse, Jan H.},
  title     = {Challenges and opportunities for integrating lake ecosystem modelling approaches},
  series = {Aquatic ecology},
  volume    = {44},
  journal   = {Aquatic ecology},
  publisher = {Springer Science + Business Media B.V.},
  address   = {Dordrecht},
  issn      = {1573-5125},
  doi       = {10.1007/s10452-010-9339-3},
  pages     = {633 -- 667},
  year      = {2010},
  abstract  = {A large number and wide variety of lake ecosystem models have been developed and published during the past four decades. We identify two challenges for making further progress in this field. One such challenge is to avoid developing more models largely following the concept of others ('reinventing the wheel'). The other challenge is to avoid focusing on only one type of model, while ignoring new and diverse approaches that have become available ('having tunnel vision'). In this paper, we aim at improving the awareness of existing models and knowledge of concurrent approaches in lake ecosystem modelling, without covering all possible model tools and avenues. First, we present a broad variety of modelling approaches. To illustrate these approaches, we give brief descriptions of rather arbitrarily selected sets of specific models. We deal with static models (steady state and regression models), complex dynamic models (CAEDYM, CE-QUAL-W2, Delft 3D-ECO, LakeMab, LakeWeb, MyLake, PCLake, PROTECH, SALMO), structurally dynamic models and minimal dynamic models. We also discuss a group of approaches that could all be classified as individual based: super-individual models (Piscator, Charisma), physiologically structured models, stage-structured models and traitbased models. We briefly mention genetic algorithms, neural networks, Kalman filters and fuzzy logic. Thereafter, we zoom in, as an in-depth example, on the multi-decadal development and application of the lake ecosystem model PCLake and related models (PCLake Metamodel, Lake Shira Model, IPH-TRIM3D-PCLake). In the discussion, we argue that while the historical development of each approach and model is understandable given its 'leading principle', there are many opportunities for combining approaches. We take the point of view that a single 'right' approach does not exist and should not be strived for. Instead, multiple modelling approaches, applied concurrently to a given problem, can help develop an integrative view on the functioning of lake ecosystems. We end with a set of specific recommendations that may be of help in the further development of lake ecosystem models.},
  language  = {en}
}
@misc{FrielerLevermannElliottetal.2015,
  author    = {Frieler, Katja and Levermann, Anders and Elliott, J. and Heinke, J. and Arneth, A. and Bierkens, M. F. P. and Ciais, Philippe and Clark, D. B. and Deryng, D. and Doell, P. and Falloon, P. and Fekete, B. and Folberth, Christian and Friend, A. D. and Gellhorn, C. and Gosling, S. N. and Haddeland, I. and Khabarov, N. and Lomas, M. and Masaki, Y. and Nishina, K. and Neumann, K. and Oki, T. and Pavlick, R. and Ruane, A. C. and Schmid, E. and Schmitz, C. and Stacke, T. and Stehfest, E. and Tang, Q. and Wisser, D. and Huber, V. and Piontek, Franziska and Warszawski, L. and Schewe, Jacob and Lotze-Campen, Hermann and Schellnhuber, Hans Joachim},
  title     = {A framework for the cross-sectoral integration of multi-model impact projections},
  series = {Earth system dynamics},
  journal   = {Earth system dynamics},
  url       = {http://nbn-resolving.de/urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-407968},
  pages     = {14},
  year      = {2015},
  abstract  = {Climate change and its impacts already pose considerable challenges for societies that will further increase with global warming (IPCC, 2014a, b). Uncertainties of the climatic response to greenhouse gas emissions include the potential passing of large-scale tipping points (e.g. Lenton et al., 2008; Levermann et al., 2012; Schellnhuber, 2010) and changes in extreme meteorological events (Field et al., 2012) with complex impacts on societies (Hallegatte et al., 2013). Thus climate change mitigation is considered a necessary societal response for avoiding uncontrollable impacts (Conference of the Parties, 2010). On the other hand, large-scale climate change mitigation itself implies fundamental changes in, for example, the global energy system. The associated challenges come on top of others that derive from equally important ethical imperatives like the fulfilment of increasing food demand that may draw on the same resources. For example, ensuring food security for a growing population may require an expansion of cropland, thereby reducing natural carbon sinks or the area available for bio-energy production. So far, available studies addressing this problem have relied on individual impact models, ignoring uncertainty in crop model and biome model projections. Here, we propose a probabilistic decision framework that allows for an evaluation of agricultural management and mitigation options in a multi-impact-model setting. Based on simulations generated within the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISI-MIP), we outline how cross-sectorally consistent multi-model impact simulations could be used to generate the information required for robust decision making. Using an illustrative future land use pattern, we discuss the trade-off between potential gains in crop production and associated losses in natural carbon sinks in the new multiple crop-and biome-model setting. In addition, crop and water model simulations are combined to explore irrigation increases as one possible measure of agricultural intensification that could limit the expansion of cropland required in response to climate change and growing food demand. This example shows that current impact model uncertainties pose an important challenge to long-term mitigation planning and must not be ignored in long-term strategic decision making.},
  language  = {en}
}
@article{FrielerLevermannElliottetal.2015,
  author    = {Frieler, Katja and Levermann, Anders and Elliott, J. and Heinke, Jens and Arneth, A. and Bierkens, M. F. P. and Ciais, Philippe and Clark, D. B. and Deryng, D. and Doell, P. and Falloon, P. and Fekete, B. and Folberth, Christian and Friend, A. D. and Gellhorn, C. and Gosling, S. N. and Haddeland, I. and Khabarov, N. and Lomas, M. and Masaki, Y. and Nishina, K. and Neumann, K. and Oki, T. and Pavlick, R. and Ruane, A. C. and Schmid, E. and Schmitz, C. and Stacke, T. and Stehfest, E. and Tang, Q. and Wisser, D. and Huber, Veronika and Piontek, Franziska and Warszawski, Lila and Schewe, Jacob and Lotze-Campen, Hermann and Schellnhuber, Hans Joachim},
  title     = {A framework for the cross-sectoral integration of multi-model impact projections},
  series = {Earth system dynamics},
  volume    = {6},
  journal   = {Earth system dynamics},
  number    = {2},
  publisher = {Copernicus},
  address   = {G{\"o}ttingen},
  issn      = {2190-4979},
  doi       = {10.5194/esd-6-447-2015},
  pages     = {447 -- 460},
  year      = {2015},
  abstract  = {Climate change and its impacts already pose considerable challenges for societies that will further increase with global warming (IPCC, 2014a, b). Uncertainties of the climatic response to greenhouse gas emissions include the potential passing of large-scale tipping points (e.g. Lenton et al., 2008; Levermann et al., 2012; Schellnhuber, 2010) and changes in extreme meteorological events (Field et al., 2012) with complex impacts on societies (Hallegatte et al., 2013). Thus climate change mitigation is considered a necessary societal response for avoiding uncontrollable impacts (Conference of the Parties, 2010). On the other hand, large-scale climate change mitigation itself implies fundamental changes in, for example, the global energy system. The associated challenges come on top of others that derive from equally important ethical imperatives like the fulfilment of increasing food demand that may draw on the same resources. For example, ensuring food security for a growing population may require an expansion of cropland, thereby reducing natural carbon sinks or the area available for bio-energy production. So far, available studies addressing this problem have relied on individual impact models, ignoring uncertainty in crop model and biome model projections. Here, we propose a probabilistic decision framework that allows for an evaluation of agricultural management and mitigation options in a multi-impact-model setting. Based on simulations generated within the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISI-MIP), we outline how cross-sectorally consistent multi-model impact simulations could be used to generate the information required for robust decision making. Using an illustrative future land use pattern, we discuss the trade-off between potential gains in crop production and associated losses in natural carbon sinks in the new multiple crop-and biome-model setting. In addition, crop and water model simulations are combined to explore irrigation increases as one possible measure of agricultural intensification that could limit the expansion of cropland required in response to climate change and growing food demand. This example shows that current impact model uncertainties pose an important challenge to long-term mitigation planning and must not be ignored in long-term strategic decision making.},
  language  = {en}
}
@article{FrielerSchaubergerArnethetal.2017,
  author    = {Frieler, Katja and Schauberger, Bernhard and Arneth, Almut and Balkovic, Juraj and Chryssanthacopoulos, James and Deryng, Delphine and Elliott, Joshua and Folberth, Christian and Khabarov, Nikolay and M{\"u}ller, Christoph and Olin, Stefan and Pugh, Thomas A. M. and Schaphoff, Sibyll and Schewe, Jacob and Schmid, Erwin and Warszawski, Lila and Levermann, Anders},
  title     = {Understanding the weather signal in national crop-yield variability},
  series = {Earths future},
  volume    = {5},
  journal   = {Earths future},
  publisher = {Wiley},
  address   = {Hoboken},
  issn      = {2328-4277},
  doi       = {10.1002/2016EF000525},
  pages     = {605 -- 616},
  year      = {2017},
  abstract  = {Year-to-year variations in crop yields can have major impacts on the livelihoods of subsistence farmers and may trigger significant global price fluctuations, with severe consequences for people in developing countries. Fluctuations can be induced by weather conditions, management decisions, weeds, diseases, and pests. Although an explicit quantification and deeper understanding of weather-induced crop-yield variability is essential for adaptation strategies, so far it has only been addressed by empirical models. Here, we provide conservative estimates of the fraction of reported national yield variabilities that can be attributed to weather by state-of-the-art, process-based crop model simulations. We find that observed weather variations can explain more than 50\% of the variability in wheat yields in Australia, Canada, Spain, Hungary, and Romania. For maize, weather sensitivities exceed 50\% in seven countries, including the United States. The explained variance exceeds 50\% for rice in Japan and South Korea and for soy in Argentina. Avoiding water stress by simulating yields assuming full irrigation shows that water limitation is a major driver of the observed variations in most of these countries. Identifying the mechanisms leading to crop-yield fluctuations is not only fundamental for dampening fluctuations, but is also important in the context of the debate on the attribution of loss and damage to climate change. Since process-based crop models not only account for weather influences on crop yields, but also provide options to represent human-management measures, they could become essential tools for differentiating these drivers, and for exploring options to reduce future yield fluctuations.},
  language  = {en}
}