@misc{FrielerLevermannElliottetal.2015, author = {Frieler, Katja and Levermann, Anders and Elliott, J. and Heinke, J. and Arneth, A. and Bierkens, M. F. P. and Ciais, Philippe and Clark, D. B. and Deryng, D. and Doell, P. and Falloon, P. and Fekete, B. and Folberth, Christian and Friend, A. D. and Gellhorn, C. and Gosling, S. N. and Haddeland, I. and Khabarov, N. and Lomas, M. and Masaki, Y. and Nishina, K. and Neumann, K. and Oki, T. and Pavlick, R. and Ruane, A. C. and Schmid, E. and Schmitz, C. and Stacke, T. and Stehfest, E. and Tang, Q. and Wisser, D. and Huber, V. and Piontek, Franziska and Warszawski, L. and Schewe, Jacob and Lotze-Campen, Hermann and Schellnhuber, Hans Joachim}, title = {A framework for the cross-sectoral integration of multi-model impact projections}, series = {Earth system dynamics}, journal = {Earth system dynamics}, url = {http://nbn-resolving.de/urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-407968}, pages = {14}, year = {2015}, abstract = {Climate change and its impacts already pose considerable challenges for societies that will further increase with global warming (IPCC, 2014a, b). Uncertainties of the climatic response to greenhouse gas emissions include the potential passing of large-scale tipping points (e.g. Lenton et al., 2008; Levermann et al., 2012; Schellnhuber, 2010) and changes in extreme meteorological events (Field et al., 2012) with complex impacts on societies (Hallegatte et al., 2013). Thus climate change mitigation is considered a necessary societal response for avoiding uncontrollable impacts (Conference of the Parties, 2010). On the other hand, large-scale climate change mitigation itself implies fundamental changes in, for example, the global energy system. The associated challenges come on top of others that derive from equally important ethical imperatives like the fulfilment of increasing food demand that may draw on the same resources. For example, ensuring food security for a growing population may require an expansion of cropland, thereby reducing natural carbon sinks or the area available for bio-energy production. So far, available studies addressing this problem have relied on individual impact models, ignoring uncertainty in crop model and biome model projections. Here, we propose a probabilistic decision framework that allows for an evaluation of agricultural management and mitigation options in a multi-impact-model setting. Based on simulations generated within the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISI-MIP), we outline how cross-sectorally consistent multi-model impact simulations could be used to generate the information required for robust decision making. Using an illustrative future land use pattern, we discuss the trade-off between potential gains in crop production and associated losses in natural carbon sinks in the new multiple crop-and biome-model setting. In addition, crop and water model simulations are combined to explore irrigation increases as one possible measure of agricultural intensification that could limit the expansion of cropland required in response to climate change and growing food demand. This example shows that current impact model uncertainties pose an important challenge to long-term mitigation planning and must not be ignored in long-term strategic decision making.}, language = {en} } @article{FrielerLevermannElliottetal.2015, author = {Frieler, Katja and Levermann, Anders and Elliott, J. and Heinke, Jens and Arneth, A. and Bierkens, M. F. P. and Ciais, Philippe and Clark, D. B. and Deryng, D. and Doell, P. and Falloon, P. and Fekete, B. and Folberth, Christian and Friend, A. D. and Gellhorn, C. and Gosling, S. N. and Haddeland, I. and Khabarov, N. and Lomas, M. and Masaki, Y. and Nishina, K. and Neumann, K. and Oki, T. and Pavlick, R. and Ruane, A. C. and Schmid, E. and Schmitz, C. and Stacke, T. and Stehfest, E. and Tang, Q. and Wisser, D. and Huber, Veronika and Piontek, Franziska and Warszawski, Lila and Schewe, Jacob and Lotze-Campen, Hermann and Schellnhuber, Hans Joachim}, title = {A framework for the cross-sectoral integration of multi-model impact projections}, series = {Earth system dynamics}, volume = {6}, journal = {Earth system dynamics}, number = {2}, publisher = {Copernicus}, address = {G{\"o}ttingen}, issn = {2190-4979}, doi = {10.5194/esd-6-447-2015}, pages = {447 -- 460}, year = {2015}, abstract = {Climate change and its impacts already pose considerable challenges for societies that will further increase with global warming (IPCC, 2014a, b). Uncertainties of the climatic response to greenhouse gas emissions include the potential passing of large-scale tipping points (e.g. Lenton et al., 2008; Levermann et al., 2012; Schellnhuber, 2010) and changes in extreme meteorological events (Field et al., 2012) with complex impacts on societies (Hallegatte et al., 2013). Thus climate change mitigation is considered a necessary societal response for avoiding uncontrollable impacts (Conference of the Parties, 2010). On the other hand, large-scale climate change mitigation itself implies fundamental changes in, for example, the global energy system. The associated challenges come on top of others that derive from equally important ethical imperatives like the fulfilment of increasing food demand that may draw on the same resources. For example, ensuring food security for a growing population may require an expansion of cropland, thereby reducing natural carbon sinks or the area available for bio-energy production. So far, available studies addressing this problem have relied on individual impact models, ignoring uncertainty in crop model and biome model projections. Here, we propose a probabilistic decision framework that allows for an evaluation of agricultural management and mitigation options in a multi-impact-model setting. Based on simulations generated within the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISI-MIP), we outline how cross-sectorally consistent multi-model impact simulations could be used to generate the information required for robust decision making. Using an illustrative future land use pattern, we discuss the trade-off between potential gains in crop production and associated losses in natural carbon sinks in the new multiple crop-and biome-model setting. In addition, crop and water model simulations are combined to explore irrigation increases as one possible measure of agricultural intensification that could limit the expansion of cropland required in response to climate change and growing food demand. This example shows that current impact model uncertainties pose an important challenge to long-term mitigation planning and must not be ignored in long-term strategic decision making.}, language = {en} } @article{ChristensenLentzMortensenetal.2005, author = {Christensen, B. J. and Lentz, R. and Mortensen, D. T. and Neumann, G. R. and Werwatz, A.}, title = {On-the-job search and the wage distribution}, issn = {0734-306X}, year = {2005}, abstract = {The article structually estimates an on-the-job search model of job separations. Given each employer pays observably equivalent workers the same but wages are dispersed across employers, an employer's separation flow is the sum of an exogenous outflow unrelated to the wage and a job-to-job flow that decreases with the employer's wage. Using data from the Danish Integrated Database for Labour Market Research, the empirical results imply, as predicted by theory, that search effort declines with the wage. Furthermore, the estimates explain the employment effect, defined as the horizontal difference between the distribution of wages earned and the wage offer distribution}, language = {en} } @article{SchellerBierNeumann1994, author = {Scheller, Frieder W. and Bier, Frank Fabian and Neumann, B.}, title = {Bioindikation in aquatischen {\"O}kosystemen : Bioindikation in limnischen und k{\"u}stennahen {\"O}kosystemen ; Grundlagen, Verfahren und Methoden}, publisher = {Fischer}, address = {Jena}, pages = {S. 380 - 386}, year = {1994}, language = {de} } @article{WelzelKossmehlEngelmannetal.1997, author = {Welzel, H.-P. and Kossmehl, G. and Engelmann, G. and Neumann, B. and Wollenberger, Ursula and Scheller, Frieder W.}, title = {Electrochemical polymerization of functionalized thiohene derivatives for immobilization of proteins}, year = {1997}, language = {en} } @article{WollenbergerNeumann1997, author = {Wollenberger, Ursula and Neumann, B.}, title = {Quinoprotein glucose dehydrogenase modified carbon paste electrode for detection of phenolic compounds}, year = {1997}, language = {en} } @article{RiedelBeyersdorfRadeckNeumannetal.1995, author = {Riedel, K. and Beyersdorf-Radeck, Baerbel and Neumann, B. and Scheller, Frieder W. and Schmid, Rolf D.}, title = {Microbial sensors for determination of aromatics and their chloro derivatives. Part III: Determination of chlorinated phenols using a biosensor containing Trichosporon beigelii (cutaneum)}, year = {1995}, language = {en} } @article{WollenbergerNeumannScheller1998, author = {Wollenberger, Ursula and Neumann, B. and Scheller, Frieder W.}, title = {Development of a biomimetic alkane sensor f}, year = {1998}, language = {en} } @article{WollenbergerNeumannRiedeletal.1994, author = {Wollenberger, Ursula and Neumann, B. and Riedel, K. and Scheller, Frieder W.}, title = {Enzyme and microbial sensors for phosphate, phenols, pesticides and peroxides}, year = {1994}, language = {en} } @article{WelzelKossmehlEngelmannetal.1996, author = {Welzel, H.-P. and Kossmehl, G. and Engelmann, G. and Neumann, B. and Wollenberger, Ursula and Scheller, Frieder W. and Schr{\"o}der, W.}, title = {Reactive groups on polymer covered electrodes, 4. Lactate-oxidase-biosensor based on electrodes modifies by polyphiophene}, year = {1996}, language = {en} }