@phdthesis{RoggeSolti2014,
  author    = {Rogge-Solti, Andreas},
  title     = {Probabilistic Estimation of Unobserved Process Events},
  url       = {http://nbn-resolving.de/urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus-70426},
  school      = {Universit{\"a}t Potsdam},
  year      = {2014},
  abstract  = {Organizations try to gain competitive advantages, and to increase customer satisfaction. To ensure the quality and efficiency of their business processes, they perform business process management. An important part of process management that happens on the daily operational level is process controlling. A prerequisite of controlling is process monitoring, i.e., keeping track of the performed activities in running process instances. Only by process monitoring can business analysts detect delays and react to deviations from the expected or guaranteed performance of a process instance. To enable monitoring, process events need to be collected from the process environment. When a business process is orchestrated by a process execution engine, monitoring is available for all orchestrated process activities. Many business processes, however, do not lend themselves to automatic orchestration, e.g., because of required freedom of action. This situation is often encountered in hospitals, where most business processes are manually enacted. Hence, in practice it is often inefficient or infeasible to document and monitor every process activity. Additionally, manual process execution and documentation is prone to errors, e.g., documentation of activities can be forgotten. Thus, organizations face the challenge of process events that occur, but are not observed by the monitoring environment. These unobserved process events can serve as basis for operational process decisions, even without exact knowledge of when they happened or when they will happen. An exemplary decision is whether to invest more resources to manage timely completion of a case, anticipating that the process end event will occur too late. This thesis offers means to reason about unobserved process events in a probabilistic way. We address decisive questions of process managers (e.g., "when will the case be finished?", or "when did we perform the activity that we forgot to document?") in this thesis. As main contribution, we introduce an advanced probabilistic model to business process management that is based on a stochastic variant of Petri nets. We present a holistic approach to use the model effectively along the business process lifecycle. Therefore, we provide techniques to discover such models from historical observations, to predict the termination time of processes, and to ensure quality by missing data management. We propose mechanisms to optimize configuration for monitoring and prediction, i.e., to offer guidance in selecting important activities to monitor. An implementation is provided as a proof of concept. For evaluation, we compare the accuracy of the approach with that of state-of-the-art approaches using real process data of a hospital. Additionally, we show its more general applicability in other domains by applying the approach on process data from logistics and finance.},
  language  = {en}
}
@article{RoggeSoltiWeske2015,
  author    = {Rogge-Solti, Andreas and Weske, Mathias},
  title     = {Prediction of business process durations using non-Markovian stochastic Petri nets},
  series = {Information systems},
  volume    = {54},
  journal   = {Information systems},
  publisher = {Elsevier},
  address   = {Oxford},
  issn      = {0306-4379},
  doi       = {10.1016/j.is.2015.04.004},
  pages     = {1 -- 14},
  year      = {2015},
  abstract  = {Companies need to efficiently manage their business processes to deliver products and services in time. Therefore, they monitor the progress of individual cases to be able to timely detect undesired deviations and to react accordingly. For example, companies can decide to speed up process execution by raising alerts or by using additional resources, which increases the chance that a certain deadline or service level agreement can be met. Central to such process control is accurate prediction of the remaining time of a case and the estimation of the risk of missing a deadline. To achieve this goal, we use a specific kind of stochastic Petri nets that can capture arbitrary duration distributions. Thereby, we are able to achieve higher prediction accuracy than related approaches. Further, we evaluate the approach in comparison to state of the art approaches and show the potential of exploiting a so far untapped source of information: the elapsed time since the last observed event. Real-world case studies in the financial and logistics domain serve to illustrate and evaluate the approach presented. (C) 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.},
  language  = {en}
}
@book{RoggeSoltiMansvanderAalstetal.2013,
  author    = {Rogge-Solti, Andreas and Mans, Ronny S. and van der Aalst, Wil M. P. and Weske, Mathias},
  title     = {Repairing event logs using stochastic process models},
  publisher = {Universit{\"a}tsverlag Potsdam},
  address   = {Potsdam},
  isbn      = {978-3-86956-258-2},
  url       = {http://nbn-resolving.de/urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus-66797},
  publisher      = {Universit{\"a}t Potsdam},
  pages     = {19},
  year      = {2013},
  abstract  = {Companies strive to improve their business processes in order to remain competitive. Process mining aims to infer meaningful insights from process-related data and attracted the attention of practitioners, tool-vendors, and researchers in recent years. Traditionally, event logs are assumed to describe the as-is situation. But this is not necessarily the case in environments where logging may be compromised due to manual logging. For example, hospital staff may need to manually enter information regarding the patient's treatment. As a result, events or timestamps may be missing or incorrect. In this paper, we make use of process knowledge captured in process models, and provide a method to repair missing events in the logs. This way, we facilitate analysis of incomplete logs. We realize the repair by combining stochastic Petri nets, alignments, and Bayesian networks. We evaluate the results using both synthetic data and real event data from a Dutch hospital.},
  language  = {en}
}