@article{BiltonMetzTielboerger2016,
  author    = {Bilton, Mark C. and Metz, Johannes and Tielboerger, Katja},
  title     = {Climatic niche groups: A novel application of a common assumption predicting plant community response to climate change},
  series = {Perspectives in plant ecology, evolution and systematics},
  volume    = {19},
  journal   = {Perspectives in plant ecology, evolution and systematics},
  publisher = {Elsevier},
  address   = {Jena},
  issn      = {1433-8319},
  doi       = {10.1016/j.ppees.2016.02.006},
  pages     = {61 -- 69},
  year      = {2016},
  abstract  = {Defining species by their climatic niche is the simple and intuitive principle underlying Bioclimatic Envelope Model (BEM) predictions for climate change effects. However, these correlative models are often criticised for neglecting many ecological processes. Here, we apply the same niche principle to entire communities within a medium/long-term climate manipulation study, where ecological processes are inherently included. In a nine generation study in Israel, we manipulated rainfall (Drought -30\%; Irrigation +30\%; Control natural rainfall) at two sites which differ chiefly in rainfall quantity and variability. We analysed community responses to the manipulations by grouping species based on their climatic rainfall niche. These responses were compared to analyses based on single species, total densities, and commonly used taxonomic groupings. Climate Niche Groups yielded clear and consistent results: within communities, those species distributed in drier regions performed relatively better in the drought treatment, and those from wetter climates performed better when irrigated. In contrast, analyses based on other principles revealed little insight into community dynamics. Notably, most relationships were weaker at the drier, more variable site, suggesting that enhanced adaptation to variability may buffer climate change impacts. We provide robust experimental evidence that using climatic niches commonly applied in BEMs is a valid approach for eliciting community changes in response to climate change. However, we also argue that additional empirical information needs to be gathered using experiments in situ to correctly assess community vulnerability. Climatic Niche Groups used in this way, may therefore provide a powerful tool and directional testing framework to generalise and compare climate change impacts across habitats. (C) 2016 The Authors. Published by Elsevier GmbH.},
  language  = {en}
}
@article{MetzTielboerger2016,
  author    = {Metz, Johannes and Tielboerger, Katja},
  title     = {Spatial and temporal aridity gradients provide poor proxies for plant-plant interactions under climate change: a large-scale experiment},
  series = {Functional ecology : an official journal of the British Ecological Society},
  volume    = {30},
  journal   = {Functional ecology : an official journal of the British Ecological Society},
  publisher = {Wiley-Blackwell},
  address   = {Hoboken},
  issn      = {0269-8463},
  doi       = {10.1111/1365-2435.12599},
  pages     = {20 -- 29},
  year      = {2016},
  abstract  = {1. Plant-plant interactions may critically modify the impact of climate change on plant communities. However, the magnitude and even direction of potential future interactions remains highly debated, especially for water-limited ecosystems. Predictions range from increasing facilitation to increasing competition with future aridification. 2. The different methodologies used for assessing plant-plant interactions under changing environmental conditions may affect the outcome but they are not equally represented in the literature. Mechanistic experimental manipulations are rare compared with correlative approaches that infer future patterns from current observations along spatial climatic gradients. 3. Here, we utilize a unique climatic gradient in combination with a large-scale, long-term experiment to test whether predictions about plant-plant interactions yield similar results when using experimental manipulations, spatial gradients or temporal variation. We assessed shrub-annual interactions in three different sites along a natural rainfall gradient (spatial) during 9 years of varying rainfall (temporal) and 8 years of dry and wet manipulations of ambient rainfall (experimental) that closely mimicked regional climate scenarios. 4. The results were fundamentally different among all three approaches. Experimental water manipulations hardly altered shrub effects on annual plant communities for the assessed fitness parameters biomass and survival. Along the spatial gradient, shrub effects shifted from clearly negative to mildly facilitative towards drier sites, whereas temporal variation showed the opposite trend: more negative shrub effects in drier years. 5. Based on our experimental approach, we conclude that shrub-annual interaction will remain similar under climate change. In contrast, the commonly applied space-for-time approach based on spatial gradients would have suggested increasing facilitative effects with climate change. We discuss potential mechanisms governing the differences among the three approaches. 6. Our study highlights the critical importance of long-term experimental manipulations for evaluating climate change impacts. Correlative approaches, for example along spatial or temporal gradients, may be misleading and overestimate the response of plant-plant interactions to climate change.},
  language  = {en}
}