@article{LechleitnerBreitenbachRehfeldetal.2017,
  author    = {Lechleitner, Franziska A. and Breitenbach, Sebastian Franz Martin and Rehfeld, Kira and Ridley, Harriet E. and Asmerom, Yemane and Prufer, Keith M. and Marwan, Norbert and Goswami, Bedartha and Kennett, Douglas J. and Aquino, Valorie V. and Polyak, Victor and Haug, Gerald H. and Eglinton, Timothy I. and Baldini, James U. L.},
  title     = {Tropical rainfall over the last two millennia: evidence for a low-latitude hydrologic seesaw},
  series = {Scientific reports},
  volume    = {7},
  journal   = {Scientific reports},
  publisher = {Nature Publ. Group},
  address   = {London},
  issn      = {2045-2322},
  doi       = {10.1038/srep45809},
  pages     = {9},
  year      = {2017},
  abstract  = {The presence of a low-to mid-latitude interhemispheric hydrologic seesaw is apparent over orbital and glacial-interglacial timescales, but its existence over the most recent past remains unclear. Here we investigate, based on climate proxy reconstructions from both hemispheres, the inter-hemispherical phasing of the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) and the low-to mid-latitude teleconnections in the Northern Hemisphere over the past 2000 years. A clear feature is a persistent southward shift of the ITCZ during the Little Ice Age until the beginning of the 19th Century. Strong covariation between our new composite ITCZ-stack and North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) records reveals a tight coupling between these two synoptic weather and climate phenomena over decadal-to-centennial timescales. This relationship becomes most apparent when comparing two precisely dated, high-resolution paleorainfall records from Belize and Scotland, indicating that the low-to mid-latitude teleconnection was also active over annual-decadal timescales. It is likely a combination of external forcing, i.e., solar and volcanic, and internal feedbacks, that drives the synchronous ITCZ and NAO shifts via energy flux perturbations in the tropics.},
  language  = {en}
}
@article{LechleitnerBreitenbachChengetal.2017,
  author    = {Lechleitner, Franziska A. and Breitenbach, Sebastian Franz Martin and Cheng, Hai and Plessen, Birgit and Rehfeld, Kira and Goswami, Bedartha and Marwan, Norbert and Eroglu, Deniz and Adkins, Jess F. and Haug, Gerald},
  title     = {Climatic and in-cave influences on delta O-18 and delta C-13 in a stalagmite from northeastern India through the last deglaciation},
  series = {Quaternary research : an interdisciplinary journal},
  volume    = {88},
  journal   = {Quaternary research : an interdisciplinary journal},
  publisher = {Cambridge Univ. Press},
  address   = {New York},
  issn      = {0033-5894},
  doi       = {10.1017/qua.2017.72},
  pages     = {458 -- 471},
  year      = {2017},
  abstract  = {Northeastern (NE) India experiences extraordinarily pronounced seasonal climate, governed by the Indian summer monsoon (ISM). The vulnerability of this region to floods and droughts calls for detailed and highly resolved paleoclimate reconstructions to assess the recurrence rate and driving factors of ISM changes. We use stable oxygen and carbon isotope ratios (delta O-18 and delta C-13) from stalagmite MAW-6 from Mawmluh Cave to infer climate and environmental conditions in NE India over the last deglaciation (16-6ka). We interpret stalagmite delta O-18 as reflecting ISM strength, whereas delta C-13 appears to be driven by local hydroclimate conditions. Pronounced shifts in ISM strength over the deglaciation are apparent from the delta O-18 record, similarly to other records from monsoonal Asia. The ISM is weaker during the late glacial (LG) period and the Younger Dryas, and stronger during the BOlling-Allerod and Holocene. Local conditions inferred from the delta C-13 record appear to have changed less substantially over time, possibly related to the masking effect of changing precipitation seasonality. Time series analysis of the delta O-18 record reveals more chaotic conditions during the late glacial and higher predictability during the Holocene, likely related to the strengthening of the seasonal recurrence of the ISM with the onset of the Holocene.},
  language  = {en}
}
@article{GoswamiHeitzigRehfeldetal.2014,
  author    = {Goswami, Bedartha and Heitzig, Jobst and Rehfeld, Kira and Marwan, Norbert and Anoop, Ambili and Prasad, Sushma and Kurths, J{\"u}rgen},
  title     = {Estimation of sedimentary proxy records together with associated uncertainty},
  series = {Nonlinear processes in geophysics},
  volume    = {21},
  journal   = {Nonlinear processes in geophysics},
  number    = {6},
  publisher = {Copernicus},
  address   = {G{\"o}ttingen},
  issn      = {1023-5809},
  doi       = {10.5194/npg-21-1093-2014},
  pages     = {1093 -- 1111},
  year      = {2014},
  abstract  = {Sedimentary proxy records constitute a significant portion of the recorded evidence that allows us to investigate paleoclimatic conditions and variability. However, uncertainties in the dating of proxy archives limit our ability to fix the timing of past events and interpret proxy record intercomparisons. While there are various age-modeling approaches to improve the estimation of the age-depth relations of archives, relatively little focus has been placed on the propagation of the age (and radiocarbon calibration) uncertainties into the final proxy record. We present a generic Bayesian framework to estimate proxy records along with their associated uncertainty, starting with the radiometric age-depth and proxy-depth measurements, and a radiometric calibration curve if required. We provide analytical expressions for the posterior proxy probability distributions at any given calendar age, from which the expected proxy values and their uncertainty can be estimated. We illustrate our method using two synthetic data sets and then use it to construct the proxy records for groundwater inflow and surface erosion from Lonar lake in central India. Our analysis reveals interrelations between the uncertainty of the proxy record over time and the variance of proxies along the depth of the archive. For the Lonar lake proxies, we show that, rather than the age uncertainties, it is the proxy variance combined with calibration uncertainty that accounts for most of the final uncertainty. We represent the proxy records as probability distributions on a precise, error-free timescale that makes further time series analyses and intercomparisons of proxies relatively simple and clear. Our approach provides a coherent understanding of age uncertainties within sedimentary proxy records that involve radiometric dating. It can be potentially used within existing age modeling structures to bring forth a reliable and consistent framework for proxy record estimation.},
  language  = {en}
}
@article{BreitenbachRehfeldGoswamietal.2012,
  author    = {Breitenbach, Sebastian Franz Martin and Rehfeld, Kira and Goswami, Bedartha and Baldini, James U. L. and Ridley, H. E. and Kennett, D. J. and Prufer, K. M. and Aquino, Valorie V. and Asmerom, Yemane and Polyak, V. J. and Cheng, Hai and Kurths, J{\"u}rgen and Marwan, Norbert},
  title     = {Constructing Proxy Records from Age models (COPRA)},
  series = {Climate of the past : an interactive open access journal of the European Geosciences Union},
  volume    = {8},
  journal   = {Climate of the past : an interactive open access journal of the European Geosciences Union},
  number    = {5},
  publisher = {Copernicus},
  address   = {G{\"o}ttingen},
  issn      = {1814-9324},
  doi       = {10.5194/cp-8-1765-2012},
  pages     = {1765 -- 1779},
  year      = {2012},
  abstract  = {Reliable age models are fundamental for any palaeoclimate reconstruction. Available interpolation procedures between age control points are often inadequately reported, and very few translate age uncertainties to proxy uncertainties. Most available modeling algorithms do not allow incorporation of layer counted intervals to improve the confidence limits of the age model in question. We present a framework that allows detection and interactive handling of age reversals and hiatuses, depth-age modeling, and proxy-record reconstruction. Monte Carlo simulation and a translation procedure are used to assign a precise time scale to climate proxies and to translate dating uncertainties to uncertainties in the proxy values. The presented framework allows integration of incremental relative dating information to improve the final age model. The free software package COPRA1.0 facilitates easy interactive usage.},
  language  = {en}
}
@article{DongesDonnerRehfeldetal.2011,
  author    = {Donges, Jonathan Friedemann and Donner, Reik Volker and Rehfeld, Kira and Marwan, Norbert and Trauth, Martin H. and Kurths, J{\"u}rgen},
  title     = {Identification of dynamical transitions in marine palaeoclimate records by recurrence network analysis},
  series = {Nonlinear processes in geophysics},
  volume    = {18},
  journal   = {Nonlinear processes in geophysics},
  number    = {5},
  publisher = {Copernicus},
  address   = {G{\"o}ttingen},
  issn      = {1023-5809},
  doi       = {10.5194/npg-18-545-2011},
  pages     = {545 -- 562},
  year      = {2011},
  abstract  = {The analysis of palaeoclimate time series is usually affected by severe methodological problems, resulting primarily from non-equidistant sampling and uncertain age models. As an alternative to existing methods of time series analysis, in this paper we argue that the statistical properties of recurrence networks - a recently developed approach - are promising candidates for characterising the system's nonlinear dynamics and quantifying structural changes in its reconstructed phase space as time evolves. In a first order approximation, the results of recurrence network analysis are invariant to changes in the age model and are not directly affected by non-equidistant sampling of the data. Specifically, we investigate the behaviour of recurrence network measures for both paradigmatic model systems with non-stationary parameters and four marine records of long-term palaeoclimate variations. We show that the obtained results are qualitatively robust under changes of the relevant parameters of our method, including detrending, size of the running window used for analysis, and embedding delay. We demonstrate that recurrence network analysis is able to detect relevant regime shifts in synthetic data as well as in problematic geoscientific time series. This suggests its application as a general exploratory tool of time series analysis complementing existing methods.},
  language  = {en}
}