@misc{JaraMunozMelnickLietal.2022,
  author    = {Jara-Mu{\~n}oz, Julius and Melnick, Daniel and Li, Shaoyang and Socquet, Anne and Cort{\´e}s-Aranda, Joaqu{\´i}n and Brill, Dominik and Strecker, Manfred},
  title     = {The cryptic seismic potential of the Pichilemu blind fault in Chile revealed by off-fault geomorphology},
  series = {Zweitver{\"o}ffentlichungen der Universit{\"a}t Potsdam : Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe},
  journal   = {Zweitver{\"o}ffentlichungen der Universit{\"a}t Potsdam : Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe},
  number    = {1294},
  issn      = {1866-8372},
  doi       = {10.25932/publishup-57461},
  url       = {http://nbn-resolving.de/urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-574616},
  pages     = {13},
  year      = {2022},
  abstract  = {The first step towards assessing hazards in seismically active regions involves mapping capable faults and estimating their recurrence times. While the mapping of active faults is commonly based on distinct geologic and geomorphic features evident at the surface, mapping blind seismogenic faults is complicated by the absence of on-fault diagnostic features. Here we investigated the Pichilemu Fault in coastal Chile, unknown until it generated a Mw 7.0 earthquake in 2010. The lack of evident surface faulting suggests activity along a partly-hidden blind fault. We used off-fault deformed marine terraces to estimate a fault-slip rate of 0.52 ± 0.04 m/ka, which, when integrated with satellite geodesy suggests a 2.12 ± 0.2 ka recurrence time for Mw~7.0 normal-faulting earthquakes. We propose that extension in the Pichilemu region is associated with stress changes during megathrust earthquakes and accommodated by sporadic slip during upper-plate earthquakes, which has implications for assessing the seismic potential of cryptic faults along convergent margins and elsewhere.},
  language  = {en}
}
@misc{MelnickLiMorenoetal.2018,
  author    = {Melnick, Daniel and Li, Shaoyang and Moreno, Marcos and Cisternas, Marco and Jara-Mu{\~n}oz, Julius and Wesson, Robert and Nelson, Alan and B{\´a}ez, Juan Carlos and Deng, Zhiguo},
  title     = {Back to full interseismic plate locking decades after the giant 1960 Chile earthquake},
  series = {Postprints der Universit{\"a}t Potsdam : Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe},
  journal   = {Postprints der Universit{\"a}t Potsdam : Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe},
  number    = {678},
  issn      = {1866-8372},
  doi       = {10.25932/publishup-42572},
  url       = {http://nbn-resolving.de/urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-425723},
  pages     = {10},
  year      = {2018},
  abstract  = {Great megathrust earthquakes arise from the sudden release of energy accumulated during centuries of interseismic plate convergence. The moment deficit (energy available for future earthquakes) is commonly inferred by integrating the rate of interseismic plate locking over the time since the previous great earthquake. But accurate integration requires knowledge of how interseismic plate locking changes decades after earthquakes, measurements not available for most great earthquakes. Here we reconstruct the post-earthquake history of plate locking at Guafo Island, above the seismogenic zone of the giant 1960 (M-w = 9.5) Chile earthquake, through forward modeling of land-level changes inferred from aerial imagery (since 1974) and measured by GPS (since 1994). We find that interseismic locking increased to similar to 70\% in the decade following the 1960 earthquake and then gradually to 100\% by 2005. Our findings illustrate the transient evolution of plate locking in Chile, and suggest a similarly complex evolution elsewhere, with implications for the time- and magnitude-dependent probability of future events.},
  language  = {en}
}