@article{StolbovaMartinBookhagenetal.2014, author = {Stolbova, Veronika and Martin, P. and Bookhagen, Bodo and Marwan, Norbert and Kurths, J{\"u}rgen}, title = {Topology and seasonal evolution of the network of extreme precipitation over the Indian subcontinent and Sri Lanka}, series = {Nonlinear processes in geophysics}, volume = {21}, journal = {Nonlinear processes in geophysics}, number = {4}, publisher = {Copernicus}, address = {G{\"o}ttingen}, issn = {1023-5809}, doi = {10.5194/npg-21-901-2014}, pages = {901 -- 917}, year = {2014}, abstract = {This paper employs a complex network approach to determine the topology and evolution of the network of extreme precipitation that governs the organization of extreme rainfall before, during, and after the Indian Summer Monsoon (ISM) season. We construct networks of extreme rainfall events during the ISM (June-September), post-monsoon (October-December), and pre-monsoon (March-May) periods from satellite-derived (Tropical Rainfall Measurement Mission, TRMM) and rain-gauge interpolated (Asian Precipitation Highly Resolved Observational Data Integration Towards the Evaluation of Water Resources, APHRODITE) data sets. The structure of the networks is determined by the level of synchronization of extreme rainfall events between different grid cells throughout the Indian subcontinent. Through the analysis of various complex-network metrics, we describe typical repetitive patterns in North Pakistan (NP), the Eastern Ghats (EG), and the Tibetan Plateau (TP). These patterns appear during the pre-monsoon season, evolve during the ISM, and disappear during the post-monsoon season. These are important meteorological features that need further attention and that may be useful in ISM timing and strength prediction.}, language = {en} } @article{StolbovaSurovyatkinaBookhagenetal.2016, author = {Stolbova, Veronika and Surovyatkina, Elena and Bookhagen, Bodo and Kurths, J{\"u}rgen}, title = {Tipping elements of the Indian monsoon: Prediction of onset and withdrawal}, series = {Geophysical research letters}, volume = {43}, journal = {Geophysical research letters}, publisher = {American Geophysical Union}, address = {Washington}, issn = {0094-8276}, doi = {10.1002/2016GL068392}, pages = {3982 -- 3990}, year = {2016}, abstract = {Forecasting the onset and withdrawal of the Indian summer monsoon is crucial for the life and prosperity of more than one billion inhabitants of the Indian subcontinent. However, accurate prediction of monsoon timing remains a challenge, despite numerous efforts. Here we present a method for prediction of monsoon timing based on a critical transition precursor. We identify geographic regions-tipping elements of the monsoon-and use them as observation locations for predicting onset and withdrawal dates. Unlike most predictability methods, our approach does not rely on precipitation analysis but on air temperature and relative humidity, which are well represented both in models and observations. The proposed method allows to predict onset 2 weeks earlier and withdrawal dates 1.5 months earlier than existing methods. In addition, it enables to correctly forecast monsoon duration for some anomalous years, often associated with El Nino-Southern Oscillation.}, language = {en} } @article{BoersBookhagenMarwanetal.2016, author = {Boers, Niklas and Bookhagen, Bodo and Marwan, Norbert and Kurths, J{\"u}rgen}, title = {Spatiotemporal characteristics and synchronization of extreme rainfall in South America with focus on the Andes Mountain range}, series = {Climate dynamics : observational, theoretical and computational research on the climate system}, volume = {46}, journal = {Climate dynamics : observational, theoretical and computational research on the climate system}, publisher = {Springer}, address = {New York}, issn = {0930-7575}, doi = {10.1007/s00382-015-2601-6}, pages = {601 -- 617}, year = {2016}, abstract = {The South American Andes are frequently exposed to intense rainfall events with varying moisture sources and precipitation-forming processes. In this study, we assess the spatiotemporal characteristics and geographical origins of rainfall over the South American continent. Using high-spatiotemporal resolution satellite data (TRMM 3B42 V7), we define four different types of rainfall events based on their (1) high magnitude, (2) long temporal extent, (3) large spatial extent, and (4) high magnitude, long temporal and large spatial extent combined. In a first step, we analyze the spatiotemporal characteristics of these events over the entire South American continent and integrate their impact for the main Andean hydrologic catchments. Our results indicate that events of type 1 make the overall highest contributions to total seasonal rainfall (up to 50\%). However, each consecutive episode of the infrequent events of type 4 still accounts for up to 20\% of total seasonal rainfall in the subtropical Argentinean plains. In a second step, we employ complex network theory to unravel possibly non-linear and long-ranged climatic linkages for these four event types on the high-elevation Altiplano-Puna Plateau as well as in the main river catchments along the foothills of the Andes. Our results suggest that one to two particularly large squall lines per season, originating from northern Brazil, indirectly trigger large, long-lasting thunderstorms on the Altiplano Plateau. In general, we observe that extreme rainfall in the catchments north of approximately 20 degrees S typically originates from the Amazon Basin, while extreme rainfall at the eastern Andean foothills south of 20 degrees S and the Puna Plateau originates from southeastern South America.}, language = {en} } @article{BoersBarbosaBookhagenetal.2015, author = {Boers, Niklas and Barbosa, Henrique M. J. and Bookhagen, Bodo and Marengo, Jose A. and Marwan, Norbert and Kurths, J{\"u}rgen}, title = {Propagation of Strong Rainfall Events from Southeastern South America to the Central Andes}, series = {Journal of climate}, volume = {28}, journal = {Journal of climate}, number = {19}, publisher = {American Meteorological Soc.}, address = {Boston}, issn = {0894-8755}, doi = {10.1175/JCLI-D-15-0137.1}, pages = {7641 -- 7658}, year = {2015}, abstract = {Based on high-spatiotemporal-resolution data, the authors perform a climatological study of strong rainfall events propagating from southeastern South America to the eastern slopes of the central Andes during the monsoon season. These events account for up to 70\% of total seasonal rainfall in these areas. They are of societal relevance because of associated natural hazards in the form of floods and landslides, and they form an intriguing climatic phenomenon, because they propagate against the direction of the low-level moisture flow from the tropics. The responsible synoptic mechanism is analyzed using suitable composites of the relevant atmospheric variables with high temporal resolution. The results suggest that the low-level inflow from the tropics, while important for maintaining sufficient moisture in the area of rainfall, does not initiate the formation of rainfall clusters. Instead, alternating low and high pressure anomalies in midlatitudes, which are associated with an eastward-moving Rossby wave train, in combination with the northwestern Argentinean low, create favorable pressure and wind conditions for frontogenesis and subsequent precipitation events propagating from southeastern South America toward the Bolivian Andes.}, language = {en} } @article{BoersBookhagenMarengoetal.2015, author = {Boers, Niklas and Bookhagen, Bodo and Marengo, Jose and Marwan, Norbert and von Storch, Jin-Song and Kurths, J{\"u}rgen}, title = {Extreme Rainfall of the South American Monsoon System: A Dataset Comparison Using Complex Networks}, series = {Journal of climate}, volume = {28}, journal = {Journal of climate}, number = {3}, publisher = {American Meteorological Soc.}, address = {Boston}, issn = {0894-8755}, doi = {10.1175/JCLI-D-14-00340.1}, pages = {1031 -- 1056}, year = {2015}, abstract = {In this study, the authors compare six different rainfall datasets for South America with a focus on their representation of extreme rainfall during the monsoon season (December February): the gauge-calibrated TRMM 3B42 V7 satellite product; the near-real-time TRMM 3B42 V7 RT, the GPCP 1 degrees daily (1DD) V1.2 satellite gauge combination product, the Interim ECMWF Re-Analysis (ERA-Interim) product; output of a high-spatial-resolution run of the ECHAM6 global circulation model; and output of the regional climate model Eta. For the latter three, this study can be understood as a model evaluation. In addition to statistical values of local rainfall distributions, the authors focus on the spatial characteristics of extreme rainfall covariability. Since traditional approaches based on principal component analysis are not applicable in the context of extreme events, they apply and further develop methods based on complex network theory. This way, the authors uncover substantial differences in extreme rainfall patterns between the different datasets: (i) The three model-derived datasets yield very different results than the satellite gauge combinations regarding the main climatological propagation pathways of extreme events as well as the main convergence zones of the monsoon system. (ii) Large discrepancies are found for the development of mesoscale convective systems in southeastern South America. (iii) Both TRMM datasets and ECHAM6 indicate a linkage of extreme rainfall events between the central Amazon basin and the eastern slopes of the central Andes, but this pattern is not reproduced by the remaining datasets. The authors' study suggests that none of the three model-derived datasets adequately captures extreme rainfall patterns in South America.}, language = {en} } @article{BoersGoswamiRheinwaltetal.2019, author = {Boers, Niklas and Goswami, Bedartha and Rheinwalt, Aljoscha and Bookhagen, Bodo and Hoskins, Brian and Kurths, J{\"u}rgen}, title = {Complex networks reveal global pattern of extreme-rainfall teleconnections}, series = {Nature : the international weekly journal of science}, volume = {566}, journal = {Nature : the international weekly journal of science}, number = {7744}, publisher = {Nature Publ. Group}, address = {London}, issn = {0028-0836}, doi = {10.1038/s41586-018-0872-x}, pages = {373 -- 377}, year = {2019}, abstract = {Climatic observables are often correlated across long spatial distances, and extreme events, such as heatwaves or floods, are typically assumed to be related to such teleconnections(1,2). Revealing atmospheric teleconnection patterns and understanding their underlying mechanisms is of great importance for weather forecasting in general and extreme-event prediction in particular(3,4), especially considering that the characteristics of extreme events have been suggested to change under ongoing anthropogenic climate change(5-8). Here we reveal the global coupling pattern of extreme-rainfall events by applying complex-network methodology to high-resolution satellite data and introducing a technique that corrects for multiple-comparison bias in functional networks. We find that the distance distribution of significant connections (P < 0.005) around the globe decays according to a power law up to distances of about 2,500 kilometres. For longer distances, the probability of significant connections is much higher than expected from the scaling of the power law. We attribute the shorter, power-law-distributed connections to regional weather systems. The longer, super-power-law-distributed connections form a global rainfall teleconnection pattern that is probably controlled by upper-level Rossby waves. We show that extreme-rainfall events in the monsoon systems of south-central Asia, east Asia and Africa are significantly synchronized. Moreover, we uncover concise links between south-central Asia and the European and North American extratropics, as well as the Southern Hemisphere extratropics. Analysis of the atmospheric conditions that lead to these teleconnections confirms Rossby waves as the physical mechanism underlying these global teleconnection patterns and emphasizes their crucial role in dynamical tropical-extratropical couplings. Our results provide insights into the function of Rossby waves in creating stable, global-scale dependencies of extreme-rainfall events, and into the potential predictability of associated natural hazards.}, language = {en} }