@article{GoswamiMarwanFeulneretal.2013,
  author    = {Goswami, Bedartha and Marwan, Norbert and Feulner, Georg and Kurths, J{\"u}rgen},
  title     = {How do global temperature drivers influence each other?},
  series = {European physical journal special topics},
  volume    = {222},
  journal   = {European physical journal special topics},
  number    = {3-4},
  publisher = {Springer},
  address   = {Heidelberg},
  issn      = {1951-6355},
  doi       = {10.1140/epjst/e2013-01889-8},
  pages     = {861 -- 873},
  year      = {2013},
  abstract  = {We investigate a network of influences connected to global mean temperature. Considering various climatic factors known to influence global mean temperature, we evaluate not only the impacts of these factors on temperature but also the directed dependencies among the factors themselves. Based on an existing recurrence-based connectivity measure, we propose a new and more general measure that quantifies the level of dependence between two time series based on joint recurrences at a chosen time delay. The measures estimated in the analysis are tested for statistical significance using twin surrogates. We find, in accordance with earlier studies, the major drivers for global mean temperature to be greenhouse gases, ENSO, volcanic activity, and solar irradiance. We further uncover a feedback between temperature and ENSO. Our results demonstrate the need to involve multiple, delayed interactions within the drivers of temperature in order to develop a more thorough picture of global temperature variations.},
  language  = {en}
}
@article{MarwanSchinkelKurths2013,
  author    = {Marwan, Norbert and Schinkel, Stefan and Kurths, J{\"u}rgen},
  title     = {Recurrence plots 25 years later -Gaining confidence in dynamical transitions},
  series = {epl : a letters journal exploring the frontiers of physics},
  volume    = {101},
  journal   = {epl : a letters journal exploring the frontiers of physics},
  number    = {2},
  publisher = {EDP Sciences},
  address   = {Mulhouse},
  issn      = {0295-5075},
  doi       = {10.1209/0295-5075/101/20007},
  pages     = {6},
  year      = {2013},
  abstract  = {Recurrence-plot-based time series analysis is widely used to study changes and transitions in the dynamics of a system or temporal deviations from its overall dynamical regime. However, most studies do not discuss the significance of the detected variations in the recurrence quantification measures. In this letter we propose a novel method to add a confidence measure to the recurrence quantification analysis. We show how this approach can be used to study significant changes in dynamical systems due to a change in control parameters, chaos-order as well as chaos-chaos transitions. Finally we study and discuss climate transitions by analysing a marine proxy record for past sea surface temperature. This paper is dedicated to the 25th anniversary of the introduction of recurrence plots.},
  language  = {en}
}