@phdthesis{Krause2011,
  author    = {Krause, Jette},
  title     = {An expert-based Bayesian investigation of greenhouse gas emission reduction options for German passenger vehicles until 2030},
  url       = {http://nbn-resolving.de/urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus-57671},
  school      = {Universit{\"a}t Potsdam},
  year      = {2011},
  abstract  = {The present thesis introduces an iterative expert-based Bayesian approach for assessing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from the 2030 German new vehicle fleet and quantifying the impacts of their main drivers. A first set of expert interviews has been carried out in order to identify technologies which may help to lower car GHG emissions and to quantify their emission reduction potentials. Moreover, experts were asked for their probability assessments that the different technologies will be widely adopted, as well as for important prerequisites that could foster or hamper their adoption. Drawing on the results of these expert interviews, a Bayesian Belief Network has been built which explicitly models three vehicle types: Internal Combustion Engine Vehicles (which include mild and full Hybrid Electric Vehicles), Plug-In Hybrid Electric Vehicles, and Battery Electric Vehicles. The conditional dependencies of twelve central variables within the BBN - battery energy, fuel and electricity consumption, relative costs, and sales shares of the vehicle types - have been quantified by experts from German car manufacturers in a second series of interviews. For each of the seven second-round interviews, an expert's individually specified BBN results. The BBN have been run for different hypothetical 2030 scenarios which differ, e.g., in regard to battery development, regulation, and fuel and electricity GHG intensities. The present thesis delivers results both in regard to the subject of the investigation and in regard to its method. On the subject level, it has been found that the different experts expect 2030 German new car fleet emission to be at 50 to 65\% of 2008 new fleet emissions under the baseline scenario. They can be further reduced to 40 to 50\% of the emissions of the 2008 fleet though a combination of a higher share of renewables in the electricity mix, a larger share of biofuels in the fuel mix, and a stricter regulation of car CO\$_2\$ emissions in the European Union. Technically, 2030 German new car fleet GHG emissions can be reduced to a minimum of 18 to 44\% of 2008 emissions, a development which can not be triggered by any combination of measures modeled in the BBN alone but needs further commitment. Out of a wealth of existing BBN, few have been specified by individual experts through elicitation, and to my knowledge, none of them has been employed for analyzing perspectives for the future. On the level of methods, this work shows that expert-based BBN are a valuable tool for making experts' expectations for the future explicit and amenable to the analysis of different hypothetical scenarios. BBN can also be employed for quantifying the impacts of main drivers. They have been demonstrated to be a valuable tool for iterative stakeholder-based science approaches.},
  language  = {en}
}