@article{GholamrezaieScheckWenderothBottetal.2019, author = {Gholamrezaie, Ershad and Scheck-Wenderoth, Magdalena and Bott, Judith and Heidbach, Oliver and Strecker, Manfred}, title = {3-D crustal density model of the Sea of Marmara}, series = {Solid Earth}, volume = {10}, journal = {Solid Earth}, publisher = {Copernicus Publ.}, address = {G{\"o}ttingen}, issn = {1869-9510}, doi = {10.5194/se-10-785-2019}, pages = {785 -- 807}, year = {2019}, abstract = {Abstract. The Sea of Marmara, in northwestern Turkey, is a transition zone where the dextral North Anatolian Fault zone (NAFZ) propagates westward from the Anatolian Plate to the Aegean Sea Plate. The area is of interest in the context of seismic hazard of Istanbul, a metropolitan area with about 15 million inhabitants. Geophysical observations indicate that the crust is heterogeneous beneath the Marmara basin, but a detailed characterization of the crustal heterogeneities is still missing. To assess if and how crustal heterogeneities are related to the NAFZ segmentation below the Sea of Marmara, we develop new crustal-scale 3-D density models which integrate geological and seismological data and that are additionally constrained by 3-D gravity modeling. For the latter, we use two different gravity datasets including global satellite data and local marine gravity observation. Considering the two different datasets and the general non-uniqueness in potential field modeling, we suggest three possible "end-member" solutions that are all consistent with the observed gravity field and illustrate the spectrum of possible solutions. These models indicate that the observed gravitational anomalies originate from significant density heterogeneities within the crust. Two layers of sediments, one syn-kinematic and one pre-kinematic with respect to the Sea of Marmara formation are underlain by a heterogeneous crystalline crust. A felsic upper crystalline crust (average density of 2720 kgm⁻³) and an intermediate to mafic lower crystalline crust (average density of 2890 kgm⁻³) appear to be cross-cut by two large, dome-shaped mafic highdensity bodies (density of 2890 to 3150 kgm⁻³) of considerable thickness above a rather uniform lithospheric mantle (3300 kgm⁻³). The spatial correlation between two major bends of the main Marmara fault and the location of the highdensity bodies suggests that the distribution of lithological heterogeneities within the crust controls the rheological behavior along the NAFZ and, consequently, maybe influences fault segmentation and thus the seismic hazard assessment in the region.}, language = {en} } @misc{ZieglerHeidbachReineckeretal.2016, author = {Ziegler, Moritz O. and Heidbach, Oliver and Reinecker, John and Przybycin, Anna M. and Scheck-Wenderoth, Magdalena}, title = {A multi-stage 3-D stress field modelling approach exemplified in the Bavarian Molasse Basin}, series = {Postprints der Universit{\"a}t Potsdam Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe}, journal = {Postprints der Universit{\"a}t Potsdam Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe}, number = {556}, issn = {1866-8372}, doi = {10.25932/publishup-40980}, url = {http://nbn-resolving.de/urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-409806}, pages = {18}, year = {2016}, abstract = {The knowledge of the contemporary in situ stress state is a key issue for safe and sustainable subsurface engineering. However, information on the orientation and magnitudes of the stress state is limited and often not available for the areas of interest. Therefore 3-D geomechanical-numerical modelling is used to estimate the in situ stress state and the distance of faults from failure for application in subsurface engineering. The main challenge in this approach is to bridge the gap in scale between the widely scattered data used for calibration of the model and the high resolution in the target area required for the application. We present a multi-stage 3-D geomechanical-numerical approach which provides a state-of-the-art model of the stress field for a reservoir-scale area from widely scattered data records. Therefore, we first use a large-scale regional model which is calibrated by available stress data and provides the full 3-D stress tensor at discrete points in the entire model volume. The modelled stress state is used subsequently for the calibration of a smaller-scale model located within the large-scale model in an area without any observed stress data records. We exemplify this approach with two-stages for the area around Munich in the German Molasse Basin. As an example of application, we estimate the scalar values for slip tendency and fracture potential from the model results as measures for the criticality of fault reactivation in the reservoir-scale model. The modelling results show that variations due to uncertainties in the input data are mainly introduced by the uncertain material properties and missing S-Hmax magnitude estimates needed for a more reliable model calibration. This leads to the conclusion that at this stage the model's reliability depends only on the amount and quality of available stress information rather than on the modelling technique itself or on local details of the model geometry. Any improvements in modelling and increases in model reliability can only be achieved using more high-quality data for calibration.}, language = {en} } @article{ZieglerHeidbachReineckeretal.2016, author = {Ziegler, Moritz O. and Heidbach, Oliver and Reinecker, John and Przybycin, Anna M. and Scheck-Wenderoth, Magdalena}, title = {A multi-stage 3-D stress field modelling approach exemplified in the Bavarian Molasse Basin}, series = {Solid earth}, volume = {7}, journal = {Solid earth}, publisher = {Copernicus}, address = {G{\"o}ttingen}, issn = {1869-9510}, doi = {10.5194/se-7-1365-2016}, pages = {1365 -- 1382}, year = {2016}, language = {en} } @article{vonSpechtHeidbachCottonetal.2018, author = {von Specht, Sebastian and Heidbach, Oliver and Cotton, Fabrice and Zang, Arno}, title = {Uncertainty reduction of stress tensor inversion with data-driven catalogue selection}, series = {Geophysical journal international}, volume = {214}, journal = {Geophysical journal international}, number = {3}, publisher = {Oxford Univ. Press}, address = {Oxford}, issn = {0956-540X}, doi = {10.1093/gji/ggy240}, pages = {2250 -- 2263}, year = {2018}, abstract = {The selection of earthquake focal mechanisms (FMs) for stress tensor inversion (STI) is commonly done on a spatial basis, that is, hypocentres. However, this selection approach may include data that are undesired, for example, by mixing events that are caused by different stress tensors when for the STI a single stress tensor is assumed. Due to the significant increase of FM data in the past decades, objective data-driven data selection is feasible, allowing more refined FM catalogues that avoid these issues and provide data weights for the STI routines. We present the application of angular classification with expectation-maximization (ACE) as a tool for data selection. ACE identifies clusters of FM without a priori information. The identified clusters can be used for the classification of the style-of-faulting and as weights of the FM data. We demonstrate that ACE effectively selects data that can be associated with a single stress tensor. Two application examples are given for weighted STI from South America. We use the resulting clusters and weights as a priori information for an STI for these regions and show that uncertainties of the stress tensor estimates are reduced significantly.}, language = {en} } @article{PenaMetzgerHeidbachetal.2022, author = {Pe{\~n}a, Carlos and Metzger, Sabrina and Heidbach, Oliver and Bedford, Jonathan and Bookhagen, Bodo and Moreno, Marcos and Oncken, Onno and Cotton, Fabrice}, title = {Role of poroelasticity during the early postseismic deformation of the 2010 Maule megathrust earthquake}, series = {Geophysical research letters}, volume = {49}, journal = {Geophysical research letters}, number = {9}, publisher = {Wiley}, address = {Hoboken, NJ}, issn = {0094-8276}, doi = {10.1029/2022GL098144}, pages = {11}, year = {2022}, abstract = {Megathrust earthquakes impose changes of differential stress and pore pressure in the lithosphere-asthenosphere system that are transiently relaxed during the postseismic period primarily due to afterslip, viscoelastic and poroelastic processes. Especially during the early postseismic phase, however, the relative contribution of these processes to the observed surface deformation is unclear. To investigate this, we use geodetic data collected in the first 48 days following the 2010 Maule earthquake and a poro-viscoelastic forward model combined with an afterslip inversion. This model approach fits the geodetic data 14\% better than a pure elastic model. Particularly near the region of maximum coseismic slip, the predicted surface poroelastic uplift pattern explains well the observations. If poroelasticity is neglected, the spatial afterslip distribution is locally altered by up to +/- 40\%. Moreover, we find that shallow crustal aftershocks mostly occur in regions of increased postseismic pore-pressure changes, indicating that both processes might be mechanically coupled.}, language = {en} } @article{ZiebarthvonSpechtHeidbachetal.2020, author = {Ziebarth, Malte J. and von Specht, Sebastian and Heidbach, Oliver and Cotton, Fabrice and Anderson, John G.}, title = {Applying conservation of energy to estimate earthquake frequencies from strain rates and stresses}, series = {Journal of geophysical research : Solid earth}, volume = {125}, journal = {Journal of geophysical research : Solid earth}, number = {8}, publisher = {American Geophysical Union}, address = {Washington}, issn = {2169-9313}, doi = {10.1029/2020JB020186}, pages = {25}, year = {2020}, abstract = {Estimating earthquake occurrence rates from the accumulation rate of seismic moment is an established tool of seismic hazard analysis. We propose an alternative, fault-agnostic approach based on the conservation of energy: the Energy-Conserving Seismicity Framework (ENCOS). Working in energy space has the advantage that the radiated energy is a better predictor of the damage potential of earthquake waves than the seismic moment release. In a region, ENCOS balances the stationary power available to cause earthquakes with the long-term seismic energy release represented by the energy-frequency distribution's first moment. Accumulation and release are connected through the average seismic efficiency, by which we mean the fraction of released energy that is converted into seismic waves. Besides measuring earthquakes in energy, ENCOS differs from moment balance essentially in that the energy accumulation rate depends on the total stress in addition to the strain rate tensor. To validate ENCOS, we exemplarily model the energy-frequency distribution around Southern California. We estimate the energy accumulation rate due to tectonic loading assuming poroelasticity and hydrostasis. Using data from the World Stress Map and assuming the frictional limit to estimate the stress tensor, we obtain a power of 0.8 GW. The uncertainty range, 0.3-2.0GW, originates mainly from the thickness of the seismogenic crust, the friction coefficient on preexisting faults, and models of Global Positioning System (GPS) derived strain rates. Based on a Gutenberg-Richter magnitude-frequency distribution, this power can be distributed over a range of energies consistent with historical earthquake rates and reasonable bounds on the seismic efficiency.}, language = {en} } @article{DurandBentzKwiateketal.2020, author = {Durand, Virginie and Bentz, Stephan and Kwiatek, Grzegorz and Dresen, Georg and Wollin, Christopher and Heidbach, Oliver and Martinez-Garzon, Patricia and Cotton, Fabrice and Nurlu, Murat and Bohnhoff, Marco}, title = {A two-scale preparation phase preceded an M-w 5.8 earthquake in the sea of marmara offshore Istanbul, Turkey}, series = {Seismological research letters}, volume = {91}, journal = {Seismological research letters}, number = {6}, address = {Boulder}, issn = {0895-0695}, doi = {10.1785/0220200110}, pages = {3139 -- 3147}, year = {2020}, abstract = {We analyze the spatiotemporal evolution of seismicity during a sequence of moderate (an M-w 4.7 foreshock and M-w 5.8 mainshock) earthquakes occurring in September 2019 at the transition between a creeping and a locked segment of the North Anatolian fault in the central Sea of Marmara, northwest Turkey. To investigate in detail the seismicity evolution, we apply a matched-filter technique to continuous waveforms, thus reducing the magnitude threshold for detection. Sequences of foreshocks preceding the two largest events are clearly seen, exhibiting two different behaviors: a long-term activation of the seismicity along the entire fault segment and a short-term concentration around the epicenters of the large events. We suggest a two-scale preparation phase, with aseismic slip preparing the mainshock final rupture a few days before, and a cascade mechanism leading to the nucleation of the mainshock. Thus, our study shows a combination of seismic and aseismic slip during the foreshock sequence changing the strength of the fault, bringing it closer to failure.}, language = {en} } @article{ZieglerReiterHeidbachetal.2015, author = {Ziegler, Moritz O. and Reiter, Karsten and Heidbach, Oliver and Zang, Arno and Kwiatek, Grzegorz and Stromeyer, Dietrich and Dahm, Torsten and Dresen, Georg and Hofmann, Gerhard}, title = {Mining-Induced Stress Transfer and Its Relation to a 1.9 Seismic Event in an Ultra-deep South African Gold Mine}, series = {Pure and applied geophysics}, volume = {172}, journal = {Pure and applied geophysics}, number = {10}, publisher = {Springer}, address = {Basel}, issn = {0033-4553}, doi = {10.1007/s00024-015-1033-x}, pages = {2557 -- 2570}, year = {2015}, abstract = {On 27 December 2007, a 1.9 seismic event occurred within a dyke in the deep-level Mponeng Gold Mine, South Africa. From the seismological network of the mine and the one from the Japanese-German Underground Acoustic Emission Research in South Africa (JAGUARS) group, the hypocentral depth (3,509 m), focal mechanism and aftershock location were estimated. Since no mining activity took place in the days before the event, dynamic triggering due to blasting can be ruled out as the cause. To investigate the hypothesis that stress transfer, due to excavation of the gold reef, induced the event, we set up a small-scale high-resolution three-dimensional (3D) geomechanical numerical model. The model consisted of the four different rock units present in the mine: quartzite (footwall), hard lava (hanging wall), conglomerate (gold reef) and diorite (dykes). The numerical solution was computed using a finite-element method with a discretised mesh of approximately elements. The initial stress state of the model is in agreement with in situ data from a neighbouring mine, and the step-wise excavation was simulated by mass removal from the gold reef. The resulting 3D stress tensor and its changes due to mining were analysed based on the Coulomb failure stress changes on the fault plane of the event. The results show that the seismic event was induced regardless of how the Coulomb failure stress changes were calculated and of the uncertainties in the fault plane solution. We also used the model to assess the seismic hazard due to the excavation towards the dyke. The resulting curve of stress changes shows a significant increase in the last in front of the dyke, indicating that small changes in the mining progress towards the dyke have a substantial impact on the stress transfer.}, language = {en} } @article{GholamrezaieScheckWenderothCacaceetal.2021, author = {Gholamrezaie, Ershad and Scheck-Wenderoth, Magdalena and Cacace, Mauro and Bott, Judith and Heidbach, Oliver and Bohnhoff, Marco and Strecker, Manfred R.}, title = {Lithospheric strength variations and seismotectonic segmentation below the Sea of Marmara}, series = {Tectonophysics : international journal of geotectonics and the geology and physics of the interior of the earth}, volume = {815}, journal = {Tectonophysics : international journal of geotectonics and the geology and physics of the interior of the earth}, publisher = {Elsevier}, address = {Amsterdam [u.a.]}, issn = {0040-1951}, doi = {10.1016/j.tecto.2021.228999}, pages = {13}, year = {2021}, abstract = {The Sea of Marmara is a tectonically active basin that straddles the North Anatolian Fault Zone (NAFZ), a major strike-slip fault that separates the Eurasian and Anatolian tectonic plates. The Main Marmara Fault (MMF), which is part of the NAFZ, contains an approximately 150 km long seismotectonic segment that has not ruptured since 1766. A key question for seismic hazard and risk assessment is whether or not the next rupture along this segment is likely to produce one major earthquake or a series of smaller earthquakes. Geomechanical characteristics such as along-strike variations in rock strength may provide an important control on seismotectonic segmentation. We find that variations in lithospheric strength throughout the Marmara region control the mechanical segmentation of the MMF and help explain its long-term seismotectonic segmentation. In particular, a strong crust that is mechanically coupled to the upper mantle spatially correlates with aseismic patches, where the MMF bends and changes its strike in response to the presence of high-density lower crustal bodies. Between the bends, mechanically weaker crustal domains that are decoupled from the mantle indicate a predominance of creeping. These results are highly relevant for the ongoing debate regarding the characteristics of the Marmara seismic gap, especially in view of the seismic hazard (Mw > 7) in the densely populated Marmara region.}, language = {en} }