@article{DurandBentzKwiateketal.2020,
  author    = {Durand, Virginie and Bentz, Stephan and Kwiatek, Grzegorz and Dresen, Georg and Wollin, Christopher and Heidbach, Oliver and Martinez-Garzon, Patricia and Cotton, Fabrice and Nurlu, Murat and Bohnhoff, Marco},
  title     = {A two-scale preparation phase preceded an M-w 5.8 earthquake in the sea of marmara offshore Istanbul, Turkey},
  series = {Seismological research letters},
  volume    = {91},
  journal   = {Seismological research letters},
  number    = {6},
  address   = {Boulder},
  issn      = {0895-0695},
  doi       = {10.1785/0220200110},
  pages     = {3139 -- 3147},
  year      = {2020},
  abstract  = {We analyze the spatiotemporal evolution of seismicity during a sequence of moderate (an M-w 4.7 foreshock and M-w 5.8 mainshock) earthquakes occurring in September 2019 at the transition between a creeping and a locked segment of the North Anatolian fault in the central Sea of Marmara, northwest Turkey. To investigate in detail the seismicity evolution, we apply a matched-filter technique to continuous waveforms, thus reducing the magnitude threshold for detection. Sequences of foreshocks preceding the two largest events are clearly seen, exhibiting two different behaviors: a long-term activation of the seismicity along the entire fault segment and a short-term concentration around the epicenters of the large events. We suggest a two-scale preparation phase, with aseismic slip preparing the mainshock final rupture a few days before, and a cascade mechanism leading to the nucleation of the mainshock. Thus, our study shows a combination of seismic and aseismic slip during the foreshock sequence changing the strength of the fault, bringing it closer to failure.},
  language  = {en}
}
@article{ZiebarthvonSpechtHeidbachetal.2020,
  author    = {Ziebarth, Malte J. and von Specht, Sebastian and Heidbach, Oliver and Cotton, Fabrice and Anderson, John G.},
  title     = {Applying conservation of energy to estimate earthquake frequencies from strain rates and stresses},
  series = {Journal of geophysical research : Solid earth},
  volume    = {125},
  journal   = {Journal of geophysical research : Solid earth},
  number    = {8},
  publisher = {American Geophysical Union},
  address   = {Washington},
  issn      = {2169-9313},
  doi       = {10.1029/2020JB020186},
  pages     = {25},
  year      = {2020},
  abstract  = {Estimating earthquake occurrence rates from the accumulation rate of seismic moment is an established tool of seismic hazard analysis. We propose an alternative, fault-agnostic approach based on the conservation of energy: the Energy-Conserving Seismicity Framework (ENCOS). Working in energy space has the advantage that the radiated energy is a better predictor of the damage potential of earthquake waves than the seismic moment release. In a region, ENCOS balances the stationary power available to cause earthquakes with the long-term seismic energy release represented by the energy-frequency distribution's first moment. Accumulation and release are connected through the average seismic efficiency, by which we mean the fraction of released energy that is converted into seismic waves. Besides measuring earthquakes in energy, ENCOS differs from moment balance essentially in that the energy accumulation rate depends on the total stress in addition to the strain rate tensor. To validate ENCOS, we exemplarily model the energy-frequency distribution around Southern California. We estimate the energy accumulation rate due to tectonic loading assuming poroelasticity and hydrostasis. Using data from the World Stress Map and assuming the frictional limit to estimate the stress tensor, we obtain a power of 0.8 GW. The uncertainty range, 0.3-2.0GW, originates mainly from the thickness of the seismogenic crust, the friction coefficient on preexisting faults, and models of Global Positioning System (GPS) derived strain rates. Based on a Gutenberg-Richter magnitude-frequency distribution, this power can be distributed over a range of energies consistent with historical earthquake rates and reasonable bounds on the seismic efficiency.},
  language  = {en}
}