@misc{SiblyGrimmMartinetal.2013, author = {Sibly, Richard M. and Grimm, Volker and Martin, Benjamin T. and Johnston, Alice S. A. and Kulakowska, Katarzyna and Topping, Christopher J. and Calow, Peter and Nabe-Nielsen, Jacob and Thorbek, Pernille and DeAngelis, Donald L.}, title = {Representing the acquisition and use of energy by individuals in agent-based models of animal populations}, series = {Methods in ecology and evolution : an official journal of the British Ecological Society}, volume = {4}, journal = {Methods in ecology and evolution : an official journal of the British Ecological Society}, number = {2}, publisher = {Wiley-Blackwell}, address = {Hoboken}, issn = {2041-210X}, doi = {10.1111/2041-210x.12002}, pages = {151 -- 161}, year = {2013}, abstract = {Agent-based models (ABMs) are widely used to predict how populations respond to changing environments. As the availability of food varies in space and time, individuals should have their own energy budgets, but there is no consensus as to how these should be modelled. Here, we use knowledge of physiological ecology to identify major issues confronting the modeller and to make recommendations about how energy budgets for use in ABMs should be constructed. Our proposal is that modelled animals forage as necessary to supply their energy needs for maintenance, growth and reproduction. If there is sufficient energy intake, an animal allocates the energy obtained in the order: maintenance, growth, reproduction, energy storage, until its energy stores reach an optimal level. If there is a shortfall, the priorities for maintenance and growth/reproduction remain the same until reserves fall to a critical threshold below which all are allocated to maintenance. Rates of ingestion and allocation depend on body mass and temperature. We make suggestions for how each of these processes should be modelled mathematically. Mortality rates vary with body mass and temperature according to known relationships, and these can be used to obtain estimates of background mortality rate. If parameter values cannot be obtained directly, then values may provisionally be obtained by parameter borrowing, pattern-oriented modelling, artificial evolution or from allometric equations. The development of ABMs incorporating individual energy budgets is essential for realistic modelling of populations affected by food availability. Such ABMs are already being used to guide conservation planning of nature reserves and shell fisheries, to assess environmental impacts of building proposals including wind farms and highways and to assess the effects on nontarget organisms of chemicals for the control of agricultural pests.}, language = {en} } @article{LinBergerGrimmetal.2013, author = {Lin, Yue and Berger, Uta and Grimm, Volker and Huth, Franka and Weiner, Jacob}, title = {Plant interactions alter the predictions of metabolic scaling theory}, series = {PLoS one}, volume = {8}, journal = {PLoS one}, number = {2}, publisher = {PLoS}, address = {San Fransisco}, issn = {1932-6203}, doi = {10.1371/journal.pone.0057612}, pages = {6}, year = {2013}, abstract = {Metabolic scaling theory (MST) is an attempt to link physiological processes of individual organisms with macroecology. It predicts a power law relationship with an exponent of -4/3 between mean individual biomass and density during density-dependent mortality (self-thinning). Empirical tests have produced variable results, and the validity of MST is intensely debated. MST focuses on organisms' internal physiological mechanisms but we hypothesize that ecological interactions can be more important in determining plant mass-density relationships induced by density. We employ an individual-based model of plant stand development that includes three elements: a model of individual plant growth based on MST, different modes of local competition (size-symmetric vs. -asymmetric), and different resource levels. Our model is consistent with the observed variation in the slopes of self-thinning trajectories. Slopes were significantly shallower than -4/3 if competition was size-symmetric. We conclude that when the size of survivors is influenced by strong ecological interactions, these can override predictions of MST, whereas when surviving plants are less affected by interactions, individual-level metabolic processes can scale up to the population level. MST, like thermodynamics or biomechanics, sets limits within which organisms can live and function, but there may be stronger limits determined by ecological interactions. In such cases MST will not be predictive.}, language = {en} } @article{BergerPiouSchiffersetal.2008, author = {Berger, Uta and Piou, Cyril and Schiffers, Katja and Grimm, Volker}, title = {Competition among plants : concepts, individual-based modelling approaches, and a proposal for a future research strategy}, issn = {1433-8319}, year = {2008}, abstract = {Competition is a key process in plant populations and communities. We thus need, if we are to predict the responses of ecological systems to environmental change, a comprehensive and mechanistic understanding of plant competition. Considering competition, however, only at the population level is not sufficient because plant individuals usually are different, interact locally, and can adapt their behaviour to the current state of themselves and of their biotic and abiotic environment. Therefore, simulation models that are individual-based and spatially explicit are increasingly used for studying competition in plant systems. Many different individual-based modelling approaches exist to represent competition, but it is not clear how good they are in reflecting essential aspects of plant competition. We therefore first summarize current concepts and theories addressing plant competition. Then, we review individual-based approaches for modelling competition among plants. We distinguish between approaches that are used for more than 10 years and more recent ones. We identify three major gaps that need to be addressed more in the future: the effects of plants on their local environment, adaptive behaviour, and below-ground competition. To fill these gaps, the representation of plants and their interactions have to be more mechanistic than most existing approaches. Developing such new approaches is a challenge because they are likely to be more complex and to require more detailed knowledge and data on individual-level processes underlying competition. We thus need a more integrated research strategy for the future, where empirical and theoretical ecologists as well as computer scientists work together on formulating, implementing, parameterization, testing, comparing, and selecting the new approaches. (c) 2008 Rubel Foundation, ETH Zurich. Published by Elsevier GmbH. All rights reserved.}, language = {en} } @unpublished{KreftPluggeGrimmetal.2013, author = {Kreft, Jan-Ulrich and Plugge, Caroline M. and Grimm, Volker and Prats, Clara and Leveau, Johan H. J. and Banitz, Thomas and Baines, Stephen and Clark, James and Ros, Alexandra and Klapper, Isaac and Topping, Chris J. and Field, Anthony J. and Schuler, Andrew and Litchman, Elena and Hellweger, Ferdi L.}, title = {Mighty small - observing and modeling individual microbes becomes big science}, series = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America}, volume = {110}, journal = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America}, number = {45}, publisher = {National Acad. of Sciences}, address = {Washington}, issn = {0027-8424}, doi = {10.1073/pnas.1317472110}, pages = {18027 -- 18028}, year = {2013}, language = {en} } @article{ZurellBergerCabraletal.2010, author = {Zurell, Damaris and Berger, Uta and Cabral, Juliano Sarmento and Jeltsch, Florian and Meynard, Christine N. and Muenkemueller, Tamara and Nehrbass, Nana and Pagel, J{\"o}rn and Reineking, Bjoern and Schroeder, Boris and Grimm, Volker}, title = {The virtual ecologist approach : simulating data and observers}, issn = {0030-1299}, doi = {10.1111/j.1600-0706.2009.18284.x}, year = {2010}, abstract = {Ecologists carry a well-stocked toolbox with a great variety of sampling methods, statistical analyses and modelling tools, and new methods are constantly appearing. Evaluation and optimisation of these methods is crucial to guide methodological choices. Simulating error-free data or taking high-quality data to qualify methods is common practice. Here, we emphasise the methodology of the 'virtual ecologist' (VE) approach where simulated data and observer models are used to mimic real species and how they are 'virtually' observed. This virtual data is then subjected to statistical analyses and modelling, and the results are evaluated against the 'true' simulated data. The VE approach is an intuitive and powerful evaluation framework that allows a quality assessment of sampling protocols, analyses and modelling tools. It works under controlled conditions as well as under consideration of confounding factors such as animal movement and biased observer behaviour. In this review, we promote the approach as a rigorous research tool, and demonstrate its capabilities and practical relevance. We explore past uses of VE in different ecological research fields, where it mainly has been used to test and improve sampling regimes as well as for testing and comparing models, for example species distribution models. We discuss its benefits as well as potential limitations, and provide some practical considerations for designing VE studies. Finally, research fields are identified for which the approach could be useful in the future. We conclude that VE could foster the integration of theoretical and empirical work and stimulate work that goes far beyond sampling methods, leading to new questions, theories, and better mechanistic understanding of ecological systems.}, language = {en} } @article{KowalskiGrimmHerdeetal.2019, author = {Kowalski, Gabriele Joanna and Grimm, Volker and Herde, Antje and Guenther, Anja and Eccard, Jana}, title = {Does Animal Personality Affect Movement in Habitat Corridors?}, series = {Animals}, volume = {9}, journal = {Animals}, number = {6}, publisher = {MDPI}, address = {Basel}, issn = {2076-2615}, doi = {10.3390/ani9060291}, pages = {17}, year = {2019}, abstract = {Animal personality may affect an animal's mobility in a given landscape, influencing its propensity to take risks in an unknown environment. We investigated the mobility of translocated common voles in two corridor systems 60 m in length and differing in width (1 m and 3 m). Voles were behaviorally phenotyped in repeated open field and barrier tests. Observed behavioral traits were highly repeatable and described by a continuous personality score. Subsequently, animals were tracked via an automated very high frequency (VHF) telemetry radio tracking system to monitor their movement patterns in the corridor system. Although personality did not explain movement patterns, corridor width determined the amount of time spent in the habitat corridor. Voles in the narrow corridor system entered the corridor faster and spent less time in the corridor than animals in the wide corridor. Thus, landscape features seem to affect movement patterns more strongly than personality. Meanwhile, site characteristics, such as corridor width, could prove to be highly important when designing corridors for conservation, with narrow corridors facilitating faster movement through landscapes than wider corridors.}, language = {en} } @misc{AyllonGrimmAttingeretal.2018, author = {Ayllon, Daniel and Grimm, Volker and Attinger, Sabine and Hauhs, Michael and Simmer, Clemens and Vereecken, Harry and Lischeid, Gunnar}, title = {Cross-disciplinary links in environmental systems science}, series = {The science of the total environment : an international journal for scientific research into the environment and its relationship with man}, volume = {622}, journal = {The science of the total environment : an international journal for scientific research into the environment and its relationship with man}, publisher = {Elsevier}, address = {Amsterdam}, issn = {0048-9697}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2017.12.007}, pages = {954 -- 973}, year = {2018}, abstract = {Terrestrial environmental systems are characterised by numerous feedback links between their different compartments. However, scientific research is organized into disciplines that focus on processes within the respective compartments rather than on interdisciplinary links. Major feedback mechanisms between compartments might therefore have been systematically overlooked so far. Without identifying these gaps, initiatives on future comprehensive environmental monitoring schemes and experimental platforms might fail. We performed a comprehensive overview of feedbacks between compartments currently represented in environmental sciences and explores to what degree missing links have already been acknowledged in the literature. We focused on process models as they can be regarded as repositories of scientific knowledge that compile findings of numerous single studies. In total, 118 simulation models from 23 model types were analysed. Missing processes linking different environmental compartments were identified based on a meta-review of 346 published reviews, model inter-comparison studies, and model descriptions. Eight disciplines of environmental sciences were considered and 396 linking processes were identified and ascribed to the physical, chemical or biological domain. There were significant differences between model types and scientific disciplines regarding implemented interdisciplinary links. The most wide-spread interdisciplinary links were between physical processes in meteorology, hydrology and soil science that drive or set the boundary conditions for other processes (e.g., ecological processes). In contrast, most chemical and biological processes were restricted to links within the same compartment. Integration of multiple environmental compartments and interdisciplinary knowledge was scarce in most model types. There was a strong bias of suggested future research foci and model extensions towards reinforcing existing interdisciplinary knowledge rather than to open up new interdisciplinary pathways. No clear pattern across disciplines exists with respect to suggested future research efforts. There is no evidence that environmental research would clearly converge towards more integrated approaches or towards an overarching environmental systems theory. (c) 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.}, language = {en} } @article{WangWhiteGrimmetal.2018, author = {Wang, Ming and White, Neil and Grimm, Volker and Hofman, Helen and Doley, David and Thorp, Grant and Cribb, Bronwen and Wherritt, Ella and Han, Liqi and Wilkie, John and Hanan, Jim}, title = {Pattern-oriented modelling as a novel way to verify and validate functional-structural plant models}, series = {Annals of botany}, volume = {121}, journal = {Annals of botany}, number = {5}, publisher = {Oxford Univ. Press}, address = {Oxford}, issn = {0305-7364}, doi = {10.1093/aob/mcx187}, pages = {941 -- 959}, year = {2018}, abstract = {Background and Aims Functional-structural plant (FSP) models have been widely used to understand the complex interactions between plant architecture and underlying developmental mechanisms. However, to obtain evidence that a model captures these mechanisms correctly, a clear distinction must be made between model outputs used for calibration and thus verification, and outputs used for validation. In pattern-oriented modelling (POM), multiple verification patterns are used as filters for rejecting unrealistic model structures and parameter combinations, while a second, independent set of patterns is used for validation. Key Results After calibration, our model simultaneously reproduced multiple observed architectural patterns. The model then successfully predicted, without further calibration, the validation patterns. The model supports the hypothesis that carbon allocation can be modelled as being dependent on current organ biomass and sink strength of each organ type, and also predicted the observed developmental timing of the leaf sink-source transition stage.}, language = {en} } @article{LanghammerGrimm2020, author = {Langhammer, Maria and Grimm, Volker}, title = {Mitigating bioenergy-driven biodiversity decline}, series = {Ecological modelling : international journal on ecological modelling and engineering and systems ecolog}, volume = {416}, journal = {Ecological modelling : international journal on ecological modelling and engineering and systems ecolog}, publisher = {Elsevier}, address = {Amsterdam}, issn = {0304-3800}, doi = {10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2019.108914}, pages = {13}, year = {2020}, abstract = {The cultivation of energy crops leads to direct and indirect land use changes that impair the biodiversity of the agricultural landscape. In our study, we analyse the effects of mitigation measures on the European brown hare (Lepus europaeus), which is directly affected by ongoing land use change and has experienced widespread decline throughout Europe since the 1960s. Therefore, we developed a spatially explicit and individual-based ecological model to study the effects of different landscape configurations and compositions on hare population development. As an input, we used two 4 x 4 km large model landscapes, which were generated by a landscape generator based on real field sizes and crop proportions and differed in average field size and crop composition. The crops grown annually are evaluated in terms of forage suitability, breeding suitability and crop richness for the hare. In six mitigation scenarios, we investigated the effects of a 10 \% increase in the following measures: (1) mixed silphie, (2) miscanthus, (3) grass-clover ley, (4) alfalfa, (5) set-aside, and (6) general crop richness. All mitigation measures had significant effects on hare population development. Compared to the base scenario, the relative change in hare abundance ranged from a factor of 0.56 in the grass-clover ley scenario to-0.16 in the miscanthus scenario. The mitigation measures of mixed silphie, grass-clover ley and increased crop richness led to distinct increases in hare abundance in both landscapes ( > 0.3). The results show that both landscape configuration and composition have a significant effect on hare population development, which responds particularly strongly to compositional changes. The increase in crop diversity, e.g., through the cultivation of alternative energy crops such as mixed silphie and grass-clover ley, proves to be beneficial for the brown hare.}, language = {en} } @article{MillesDammhahnGrimm2020, author = {Milles, Alexander and Dammhahn, Melanie and Grimm, Volker}, title = {Intraspecific trait variation in personality-related movement behavior promotes coexistence}, series = {Oikos}, volume = {129}, journal = {Oikos}, number = {10}, publisher = {Wiley}, address = {Hoboken}, issn = {0030-1299}, doi = {10.1111/oik.07431}, pages = {1441 -- 1454}, year = {2020}, abstract = {Movement behavior is an essential element of fundamental ecological processes such as competition and predation. Although intraspecific trait variation (ITV) in movement behaviors is pervasive, its consequences for ecological community dynamics are still not fully understood. Using a newly developed individual-based model, we analyzed how given and constant ITVs in foraging movement affect differences in foraging efficiencies between species competing for common resources under various resource distributions. Further, we analyzed how the effect of ITV on emerging differences in competitive abilities ultimately affects species coexistence. The model is generic but mimics observed patterns of among-individual covariation between personality, movement and space use in ground-dwelling rodents. Interacting species differed in their mean behavioral types along a slow-fast continuum, integrating consistent individual variation in average behavioral expression and responsiveness (i.e. behavioral reaction norms). We found that ITV reduced interspecific differences in competitive abilities by 5-35\% and thereby promoted coexistence via an equalizing mechanism. The emergent relationships between behavioral types and foraging efficiency are characteristic for specific environmental contexts of resource distribution and population density. As these relationships are asymmetric, species that were either 'too fast' or 'too slow' benefited differently from ITV. Thus, ITV in movement behavior has consequences for species coexistence but to predict its effect in a given system requires intimate knowledge on how variation in movement traits relates to fitness components along an environmental gradient.}, language = {en} } @misc{JeltschGrimm2020, author = {Jeltsch, Florian and Grimm, Volker}, title = {Editorial}, series = {Movement Ecology}, volume = {8}, journal = {Movement Ecology}, number = {1}, publisher = {BioMed Central}, address = {London}, issn = {2051-3933}, doi = {10.1186/s40462-020-00210-0}, pages = {4}, year = {2020}, language = {en} } @article{DrechslerWaetzoldGrimm2022, author = {Drechsler, Martin and W{\"a}tzold, Frank and Grimm, Volker}, title = {The hitchhiker's guide to generic ecological-economic modelling of land-use-based biodiversity conservation policies}, series = {Ecological modelling : international journal on ecological modelling and engineering and systems ecolog}, volume = {465}, journal = {Ecological modelling : international journal on ecological modelling and engineering and systems ecolog}, publisher = {Elsevier}, address = {Amsterdam}, issn = {0304-3800}, doi = {10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2021.109861}, pages = {22}, year = {2022}, abstract = {Biodiversity loss is a result of interacting ecological and economic factors, and it must be addressed through an analysis of biodiversity conservation policies. Ecological-economic modelling is a helpful approach to this analysis, but it is also challenging since modellers often have a specific disciplinary background and tend to misrepresent either the ecological or economic aspects. Here, we introduce some of the most important concepts from both disciplines, and since the two modelling cultures also differ between the two disciplines, we present an integrated, consistent guide through all the steps of generic ecological-economic modelling, such as formulation of the research question, development of the conceptual model, model parametrisation and analysis, and interpretation of model results. Although we focus on generic models aimed at a general understanding of causes and remedies for biodiversity loss, the concepts and guidance provided here may also help in the modelling of more specific conservation problems. This guide is aimed at the intersection of three disciplines: ecology, economics and mathematical modelling, and addresses readers who have some knowledge in at least one of these disciplines and want to learn about the others to build and analyse generic ecological-economic models. Compared to textbooks, the guide focuses on the practice of modelling rather than lengthy explanations of theoretical concepts. We attempt to demonstrate that generic ecological-economic modelling does not require magical powers and instead is a manageable exercise.}, language = {en} } @article{GuttZurellBracegridleetal.2012, author = {Gutt, Julian and Zurell, Damaris and Bracegridle, Thomas J. and Cheung, William and Clark, Melody S. and Convey, Peter and Danis, Bruno and David, Bruno and De Broyer, Claude and di Prisco, Guido and Griffiths, Huw and Laffont, Remi and Peck, Lloyd S. and Pierrat, Benjamin and Riddle, Martin J. and Saucede, Thomas and Turner, John and Verde, Cinzia and Wang, Zhaomin and Grimm, Volker}, title = {Correlative and dynamic species distribution modelling for ecological predictions in the Antarctic a cross-disciplinary concept}, series = {Polar research : a Norwegian journal of Polar research}, volume = {31}, journal = {Polar research : a Norwegian journal of Polar research}, number = {6}, publisher = {Co-Action Publ.}, address = {Jarfalla}, issn = {0800-0395}, doi = {10.3402/polar.v31i0.11091}, pages = {23}, year = {2012}, abstract = {Developments of future scenarios of Antarctic ecosystems are still in their infancy, whilst predictions of the physical environment are recognized as being of global relevance and corresponding models are under continuous development. However, in the context of environmental change simulations of the future of the Antarctic biosphere are increasingly demanded by decision makers and the public, and are of fundamental scientific interest. This paper briefly reviews existing predictive models applied to Antarctic ecosystems before providing a conceptual framework for the further development of spatially and temporally explicit ecosystem models. The concept suggests how to improve approaches to relating species' habitat description to the physical environment, for which a case study on sea urchins is presented. In addition, the concept integrates existing and new ideas to consider dynamic components, particularly information on the natural history of key species, from physiological experiments and biomolecular analyses. Thereby, we identify and critically discuss gaps in knowledge and methodological limitations. These refer to process understanding of biological complexity, the need for high spatial resolution oceanographic data from the entire water column, and the use of data from biomolecular analyses in support of such ecological approaches. Our goal is to motivate the research community to contribute data and knowledge to a holistic, Antarctic-specific, macroecological framework. Such a framework will facilitate the integration of theoretical and empirical work in Antarctica, improving our mechanistic understanding of this globally influential ecoregion, and supporting actions to secure this biodiversity hotspot and its ecosystem services.}, language = {en} } @article{PavlovaGrimmDietzetal.2016, author = {Pavlova, Viola and Grimm, Volker and Dietz, Rune and Sonne, Christian and Vorkamp, Katrin and Riget, Frank F. and Letcher, Robert J. and Gustavson, Kim and Desforges, Jean-Pierre and Nabe-Nielsen, Jacob}, title = {Modeling Population-Level Consequences of Polychlorinated Biphenyl Exposure in East Greenland Polar Bears}, series = {Archives of environmental contamination and toxicology}, volume = {70}, journal = {Archives of environmental contamination and toxicology}, publisher = {Springer}, address = {New York}, issn = {0090-4341}, doi = {10.1007/s00244-015-0203-2}, pages = {143 -- 154}, year = {2016}, abstract = {Polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs) can cause endocrine disruption, cancer, immunosuppression, or reproductive failure in animals. We used an individual-based model to explore whether and how PCB-associated reproductive failure could affect the dynamics of a hypothetical polar bear (Ursus maritimus) population exposed to PCBs to the same degree as the East Greenland subpopulation. Dose-response data from experimental studies on a surrogate species, the mink (Mustela vision), were used in the absence of similar data for polar bears. Two alternative types of reproductive failure in relation to maternal sum-PCB concentrations were considered: increased abortion rate and increased cub mortality. We found that the quantitative impact of PCB-induced reproductive failure on population growth rate depended largely on the actual type of reproductive failure involved. Critical potencies of the dose-response relationship for decreasing the population growth rate were established for both modeled types of reproductive failure. Comparing the model predictions of the age-dependent trend of sum-PCBs concentrations in females with actual field measurements from East Greenland indicated that it was unlikely that PCB exposure caused a high incidence of abortions in the subpopulation. However, on the basis of this analysis, it could not be excluded that PCB exposure contributes to higher cub mortality. Our results highlight the necessity for further research on the possible influence of PCBs on polar bear reproduction regarding their physiological pathway. This includes determining the exact cause of reproductive failure, i.e., in utero exposure versus lactational exposure of offspring; the timing of offspring death; and establishing the most relevant reference metrics for the dose-response relationship.}, language = {en} } @article{LinHuthBergeretal.2014, author = {Lin, Yue and Huth, Franka and Berger, Uta and Grimm, Volker}, title = {The role of belowground competition and plastic biomass allocation in altering plant mass-density relationships}, series = {Oikos}, volume = {123}, journal = {Oikos}, number = {2}, publisher = {Wiley-Blackwell}, address = {Hoboken}, issn = {0030-1299}, doi = {10.1111/j.1600-0706.2013.00921.x}, pages = {248 -- 256}, year = {2014}, language = {en} } @article{RossmanithGrimmBlaumetal.2006, author = {Rossmanith, Eva and Grimm, Volker and Blaum, Niels and Jeltsch, Florian}, title = {Behavioural flexibility in the mating system buffers population extinction: lessons from the Lesser Spotted Woodpecker (Picoides minor)}, doi = {10.1111/j.1365-2656.2006.01074.x}, year = {2006}, abstract = {In most stochastic models addressing the persistence of small populations, environmental noise is included by imposing a synchronized effect of the environment on all individuals. However, buffer mechanisms are likely to exist that may counteract this synchronization to some degree. We have studied whether the flexibility in the mating system, which has been observed in some bird species, is a potential mechanism counteracting the synchronization of environmental fluctuations. Our study organism is the lesser spotted woodpecker Picoides minor (Linnaeus), a generally monogamous species. However, facultative polyandry, where one female mates with two males with separate nests, was observed in years with male-biased sex ratio. We constructed an individual-based model from data and observations of a population in Taunus, Germany. We tested the impact of three behavioural scenarios on population persistence: (1) strict monogamy; (2) polyandry without costs; and (3) polyandry assuming costs in terms of lower survival and reproductive success for secondary males. We assumed that polyandry occurs only in years with male-biased sex ratio and only for females with favourable breeding conditions. Even low rates of polyandry had a strong positive effect on population persistence. The increase of persistence with carrying capacity was slower in the monogamous scenario, indicating strong environmental noise. In the polyandrous scenarios, the increase of persistence was stronger, indicating a buffer mechanism. In the polyandrous scenarios, populations had a higher mean population size, a lower variation in number of individuals, and recovered faster after a population breakdown. Presuming a realistic polyandry rate and costs for polyandry, there was still a strong effect of polyandry on persistence. The results show that polyandry and in general flexibility in mating systems is a buffer mechanism that can significantly reduce the impact of environmental and demographic noise in small populations. Consequently, we suggest that even behaviour that seems to be exceptional should be considered explicitly when predicting the persistence of populations}, language = {en} } @article{JeltschTewsBroseetal.2004, author = {Jeltsch, Florian and Tews, J{\"o}rg and Brose, Ulrich and Grimm, Volker and Tielb{\"o}rger, Katja and Wichmann, Matthias and Schwager, Monika}, title = {Animal species diversity driven by habitat heterogeneity/diversity : the importance of keystone structures}, year = {2004}, abstract = {In a selected literature survey we reviewed studies on the habitat heterogeneity-animal species diversity relationship and evaluated whether there are uncertainties and biases in its empirical support. We reviewed 85 publications for the period 1960-2003. We screened each publication for terms that were used to define habitat heterogeneity, the animal species group and ecosystem studied, the definition of the structural variable, the measurement of vegetation structure and the temporal and spatial scale of the study. The majority of studies found a positive correlation between habitat heterogeneity/diversity and animal species diversity. However, empirical support for this relationship is drastically biased towards studies of vertebrates and habitats under anthropogenic influence. In this paper we show that ecological effects of habitat heterogeneity may vary considerably between species groups depending on whether structural attributes are perceived as heterogeneity or fragmentation. Possible effects may also vary relative to the structural variable measured. Based upon this, we introduce a classification framework that may be used for across-studies comparisons. Moreover, the effect of habitat heterogeneity for one species group may differ in relation to the spatial scale. In several studies, however, different species groups are closely linked to 'keystone structures' that determine animal species diversity by their presence. Detecting crucial keystone structures of the vegetation has profound implications for nature conservation and biodiversity management.}, language = {en} } @article{WichmannGroeneveldJeltschetal.2005, author = {Wichmann, Matthias and Groeneveld, J{\"u}rgen and Jeltsch, Florian and Grimm, Volker}, title = {Mitigation of climate change impacts on raptors by behavioural adaptation : ecological buffering mechanisms}, issn = {0921-8181}, year = {2005}, abstract = {The predicted climate change causes deep concerns on the effects of increasing temperatures and changing precipitation patterns on species viability and, in turn, on biodiversity. Models of Population Viability Analysis (PVA) provide a powerful tool to assess the risk of species extinction. However, most PVA models do not take into account the potential effects of behavioural adaptations. Organisms might adapt to new environmental situations and thereby mitigate negative effects of climate change. To demonstrate such mitigation effects, we use an existing PVA model describing a population of the tawny eagle (Aquila rapax) in the southern Kalahari. This model does not include behavioural adaptations. We develop a new model by assuming that the birds enlarge their average territory size to compensate for lower amounts of precipitation. Here, we found the predicted increase in risk of extinction due to climate change to be much lower than in the original model. However, this "buffering" of climate change by behavioural adaptation is not very effective in coping with increasing interannual variances. We refer to further examples of ecological "buffering mechanisms" from the literature and argue that possible buffering mechanisms should be given due consideration when the effects of climate change on biodiversity are to be predicted. (c) 2004 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved}, language = {en} } @article{GrimmRevillaBergeretal.2005, author = {Grimm, Volker and Revilla, Eloy and Berger, Uta and Jeltsch, Florian and Mooij, Wolf M. and Railsback, Steven Floyd and Thulke, Hans-Hermann and Weiner, Jacob and Wiegand, Thorsten and DeAngelis, Donald L.}, title = {Pattern-oriented modeling of agend-based complex systems : lessons from ecology}, year = {2005}, abstract = {Agent-based complex systems are dynamic networks of many interacting agents; examples include ecosystems, financial markets, and cities. The search for general principles underlying the internal organization of such systems often uses bottom-up simulation models such as cellular automata and agent-based models. No general framework for designing, testing, and analyzing bottom-up models has yet been established, but recent advances in ecological modeling have come together in a general strategy we call pattern-oriented modeling. This strategy provides a unifying framework for decoding the internal organization of agent-based complex systems and may lead toward unifying algorithmic theories of the relation between adaptive behavior and system complexity}, language = {en} } @article{GrimmRevillaGroeneveldetal.2005, author = {Grimm, Volker and Revilla, Eloy and Groeneveld, J{\"u}rgen and Kramer-Schadt, Stephanie and Schwager, Monika and Tews, J{\"o}rg and Wichmann, Matthias and Jeltsch, Florian}, title = {Importance of buffer mechanisms for population viability analysis}, year = {2005}, language = {en} } @article{JeltschWiegandHanskietal.2003, author = {Jeltsch, Florian and Wiegand, T. and Hanski, I. and Grimm, Volker}, title = {Using pattern-oriented modeling for revealing hidden information : a key for reconciling ecological theory and application}, year = {2003}, language = {en} } @article{WichmannGroeneveldJeltschetal.2005, author = {Wichmann, Matthias and Groeneveld, J{\"u}rgen and Jeltsch, Florian and Grimm, Volker}, title = {Mitigation of climate change impacts on raptors by behavioural adaption : ecological buffering mechanism}, year = {2005}, language = {en} } @article{JeltschWeberGrimm2000, author = {Jeltsch, Florian and Weber, Gisela and Grimm, Volker}, title = {Ecological buffering mechanisms in savannas : a unifying theory of long-term tree-grass coexistence}, year = {2000}, language = {en} } @phdthesis{Grimm2002, author = {Grimm, Volker}, title = {Bottom-up Simulation Modelling in Ecology : Strategies and Examples}, pages = {getr. Z{\"a}hl.}, year = {2002}, language = {en} } @article{MartinJagerNisbetetal.2013, author = {Martin, Benjamin T. and Jager, Tjalling and Nisbet, Roger M. and Preuss, Thomas G. and Hammers-Wirtz, Monika and Grimm, Volker}, title = {Extrapolating ecotoxicological effects from individuals to populations - a generic approach based on Dynamic Energy Budget theory and individual-based modeling}, series = {Ecotoxicology}, volume = {22}, journal = {Ecotoxicology}, number = {3}, publisher = {Springer}, address = {Dordrecht}, issn = {0963-9292}, doi = {10.1007/s10646-013-1049-x}, pages = {574 -- 583}, year = {2013}, abstract = {Individual-based models (IBMs) predict how dynamics at higher levels of biological organization emerge from individual-level processes. This makes them a particularly useful tool for ecotoxicology, where the effects of toxicants are measured at the individual level but protection goals are often aimed at the population level or higher. However, one drawback of IBMs is that they require significant effort and data to design for each species. A solution would be to develop IBMs for chemical risk assessment that are based on generic individual-level models and theory. Here we show how one generic theory, Dynamic Energy Budget (DEB) theory, can be used to extrapolate the effect of toxicants measured at the individual level to effects on population dynamics. DEB is based on first principles in bioenergetics and uses a common model structure to model all species. Parameterization for a certain species is done at the individual level and allows to predict population-level effects of toxicants for a wide range of environmental conditions and toxicant concentrations. We present the general approach, which in principle can be used for all animal species, and give an example using Daphnia magna exposed to 3,4-dichloroaniline. We conclude that our generic approach holds great potential for standardized ecological risk assessment based on ecological models. Currently, available data from standard tests can directly be used for parameterization under certain circumstances, but with limited extra effort standard tests at the individual would deliver data that could considerably improve the applicability and precision of extrapolation to the population level. Specifically, the measurement of a toxicant's effect on growth in addition to reproduction, and presenting data over time as opposed to reporting a single EC50 or dose response curve at one time point.}, language = {en} } @misc{BecherOsborneThorbeketal.2013, author = {Becher, Matthias A. and Osborne, Juliet L. and Thorbek, Pernille and Kennedy, Peter J. and Grimm, Volker}, title = {Towards a systems approach for understanding honeybee decline - a stocktaking and synthesis of existing models}, series = {Journal of applied ecology : an official journal of the British Ecological Society}, volume = {50}, journal = {Journal of applied ecology : an official journal of the British Ecological Society}, number = {4}, publisher = {Wiley-Blackwell}, address = {Hoboken}, issn = {0021-8901}, doi = {10.1111/1365-2664.12112}, pages = {868 -- 880}, year = {2013}, abstract = {1. The health of managed and wild honeybee colonies appears to have declined substantially in Europe and the United States over the last decade. Sustainability of honeybee colonies is important not only for honey production, but also for pollination of crops and wild plants alongside other insect pollinators. A combination of causal factors, including parasites, pathogens, land use changes and pesticide usage, are cited as responsible for the increased colony mortality. 2. However, despite detailed knowledge of the behaviour of honeybees and their colonies, there are no suitable tools to explore the resilience mechanisms of this complex system under stress. Empirically testing all combinations of stressors in a systematic fashion is not feasible. We therefore suggest a cross-level systems approach, based on mechanistic modelling, to investigate the impacts of (and interactions between) colony and land management. 3. We review existing honeybee models that are relevant to examining the effects of different stressors on colony growth and survival. Most of these models describe honeybee colony dynamics, foraging behaviour or honeybee - varroa mite - virus interactions. 4. We found that many, but not all, processes within honeybee colonies, epidemiology and foraging are well understood and described in the models, but there is no model that couples in-hive dynamics and pathology with foraging dynamics in realistic landscapes. 5. Synthesis and applications. We describe how a new integrated model could be built to simulate multifactorial impacts on the honeybee colony system, using building blocks from the reviewed models. The development of such a tool would not only highlight empirical research priorities but also provide an important forecasting tool for policy makers and beekeepers, and we list examples of relevant applications to bee disease and landscape management decisions.}, language = {en} } @article{MayGrimmJeltsch2009, author = {May, Felix and Grimm, Volker and Jeltsch, Florian}, title = {Reversed effects of grazing on plant diversity : the role of below-ground competition and size symmetry}, issn = {0030-1299}, doi = {10.1111/j.1600-0706.2009.17724.x}, year = {2009}, abstract = {Grazing is known as one of the key factors for diversity and community composition in grassland ecosystems, but the response of plant communities towards grazing varies remarkably between sites with different environmental conditions. It is generally accepted that grazing increases plant diversity in productive environments, while it tends to reduce diversity in unproductive habitats (grazing reversal hypothesis). Despite empirical evidence for this pattern the mechanistic link between modes of plant-plant competition and grazing response at the community level still remains poorly understood. Root-competition in particular has rarely been included in theoretical studies, although it has been hypothesized that variations in productivity and grazing regime can alter the relative importance of shoot- and root-competition. We therefore developed an individual-based model based on plant functional traits to investigate the response of a grassland community towards grazing. Models of different complexity, either incorporating only shoot competition or with distinct shoot- and root-competition, were used to study the interactive effects of grazing, resource availability, and the mode of competition (size-symmetric or asymmetric). The pattern predicted by the grazing reversal hypothesis (GRH) can only be explained by our model if shoot- and root-competition are explicitly considered and if size asymmetry of above- and symmetry of below-ground competition is assumed. For this scenario, the model additionally reproduced empirically observed plant trait responses: erect and large plant functional types (PFTs) dominated without grazing, while frequent grazing favoured small PFTs with a rosette growth form. We conclude that interactions between shoot- and root-competition and size symmetry/asymmetry of plant-plant interactions are crucial in order to understand grazing response under different habitat productivities. Our results suggest that future empirical trait surveys in grassland communities should include root traits, which have been largely ignored in previous studies, in order to improve predictions of plants" responses to grazing.}, language = {en} } @article{MartinJagerNisbetetal.2013, author = {Martin, Benjamin T. and Jager, Tjalling and Nisbet, Roger M. and Preuss, Thomas G. and Grimm, Volker}, title = {Predicting population dynamics from the properties of individuals - a cross-level test of dynamic energy budget theory}, series = {The American naturalist : a bi-monthly journal devoted to the advancement and correlation of the biological sciences}, volume = {181}, journal = {The American naturalist : a bi-monthly journal devoted to the advancement and correlation of the biological sciences}, number = {4}, publisher = {Univ. of Chicago Press}, address = {Chicago}, issn = {0003-0147}, doi = {10.1086/669904}, pages = {506 -- 519}, year = {2013}, abstract = {Individual-based models (IBMs) are increasingly used to link the dynamics of individuals to higher levels of biological organization. Still, many IBMs are data hungry, species specific, and time-consuming to develop and analyze. Many of these issues would be resolved by using general theories of individual dynamics as the basis for IBMs. While such theories have frequently been examined at the individual level, few cross-level tests exist that also try to predict population dynamics. Here we performed a cross-level test of dynamic energy budget (DEB) theory by parameterizing an individual-based model using individual-level data of the water flea, Daphnia magna, and comparing the emerging population dynamics to independent data from population experiments. We found that DEB theory successfully predicted population growth rates and peak densities but failed to capture the decline phase. Further assumptions on food-dependent mortality of juveniles were needed to capture the population dynamics after the initial population peak. The resulting model then predicted, without further calibration, characteristic switches between small-and large-amplitude cycles, which have been observed for Daphnia. We conclude that cross-level tests help detect gaps in current individual-level theories and ultimately will lead to theory development and the establishment of a generic basis for individual-based models and ecology.}, language = {en} } @article{FranzRomanowskiJohstetal.2013, author = {Franz, Kamila W. and Romanowski, Jerzy and Johst, Karin and Grimm, Volker}, title = {Ranking landscape development scenarios affecting natterjack toad (Bufo calamita) population dynamics in Central Poland}, series = {PLoS one}, volume = {8}, journal = {PLoS one}, number = {5}, publisher = {PLoS}, address = {San Fransisco}, issn = {1932-6203}, doi = {10.1371/journal.pone.0064852}, pages = {8}, year = {2013}, abstract = {When data are limited it is difficult for conservation managers to assess alternative management scenarios and make decisions. The natterjack toad (Bufo calamita) is declining at the edges of its distribution range in Europe and little is known about its current distribution and abundance in Poland. Although different landscape management plans for central Poland exist, it is unclear to what extent they impact this species. Based on these plans, we investigated how four alternative landscape development scenarios would affect the total carrying capacity and population dynamics of the natterjack toad. To facilitate decision-making, we first ranked the scenarios according to their total carrying capacity. We used the software RAMAS GIS to determine the size and location of habitat patches in the landscape. The estimated carrying capacities were very similar for each scenario, and clear ranking was not possible. Only the reforestation scenario showed a marked loss in carrying capacity. We therefore simulated metapopulation dynamics with RAMAS taking into account dynamical processes such as reproduction and dispersal and ranked the scenarios according to the resulting species abundance. In this case, we could clearly rank the development scenarios. We identified road mortality of adults as a key process governing the dynamics and separating the different scenarios. The renaturalisation scenario clearly ranked highest due to its decreased road mortality. Taken together our results suggest that road infrastructure development might be much more important for natterjack toad conservation than changes in the amount of habitat in the semi-natural river valley. We gained these insights by considering both the resulting metapopulation structure and dynamics in the form of a PVA. We conclude that the consideration of dynamic processes in amphibian conservation management may be indispensable for ranking management scenarios.}, language = {en} } @article{MeliAuclercPalmqvistetal.2013, author = {Meli, Mattia and Auclerc, Apolline and Palmqvist, Annemette and Forbes, Valery E. and Grimm, Volker}, title = {Population-level consequences of spatially heterogeneous exposure to heavy metals in soil an individual-based model of springtails}, series = {Ecological modelling : international journal on ecological modelling and engineering and systems ecolog}, volume = {250}, journal = {Ecological modelling : international journal on ecological modelling and engineering and systems ecolog}, number = {1}, publisher = {Elsevier}, address = {Amsterdam}, issn = {0304-3800}, doi = {10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2012.11.010}, pages = {338 -- 351}, year = {2013}, abstract = {Contamination of soil with toxic heavy metals poses a major threat to the environment and human health. Anthropogenic sources include smelting of ores, municipal wastes, fertilizers, and pesticides. In assessing soil quality and the environmental and ecological risk of contamination with heavy metals, often homogeneous contamination of the soil is assumed. However, soils are very heterogeneous environments. Consequently, both contamination and the response of soil organisms can be assumed to be heterogeneous. This might have consequences for the exposure of soil organisms and for the extrapolation of risk from the individual to the population level. Therefore, to explore how soil contamination of different spatial heterogeneity affects population dynamics of soil invertebrates, we developed a spatially explicit individual-based model of the springtail, Folsomia candida, a standard test species for ecotoxicological risk assessment. In the model, individuals were assumed to sense and avoid contaminated habitat with a certain probability that depends on contamination level. Avoidance of contaminated areas thus influenced the individuals' movement and feeding, their exposure, and in turn all other biological processes underlying population dynamics. Model rules and parameters were based on data from the literature, or were determined via pattern-oriented modelling. The model correctly predicted several patterns that were not used for model design and calibration. Simulation results showed that the ability of the individuals to detect and avoid the toxicant, combined with the presence of clean habitat patches which act as "refuges", made equilibrium population size due to toxic effects less sensitive to increases in toxicant concentration. Additionally, the level of heterogeneity among patches of soil (i.e. the difference in concentration) was important: at the same average concentration, a homogeneously contaminated scenario was the least favourable habitat, while higher levels of heterogeneity corresponded to higher population growth rate and equilibrium size. Our model can thus be used as a tool for extrapolating from short-term effects at the individual level to long-term effects at the population level under more realistic conditions. It can thus be used to develop and extrapolate from standard ecotoxicological tests in the laboratory to ecological risk assessments.}, language = {en} } @article{MartinJagerNisbetetal.2014, author = {Martin, Benjamin and Jager, Tjalling and Nisbet, Roger M. and Preuss, Thomas G. and Grimm, Volker}, title = {Limitations of extrapolating toxic effects on reproduction to the population level}, series = {Ecological applications : a publication of the Ecological Society of America}, volume = {24}, journal = {Ecological applications : a publication of the Ecological Society of America}, number = {8}, publisher = {Wiley}, address = {Washington}, issn = {1051-0761}, doi = {10.1890/14-0656.1}, pages = {1972 -- 1983}, year = {2014}, abstract = {For the ecological risk assessment of toxic chemicals, standardized tests on individuals are often used as proxies for population-level effects. Here, we address the utility of one commonly used metric, reproductive output, as a proxy for population-level effects. Because reproduction integrates the outcome of many interacting processes (e.g., feeding, growth, allocation of energy to reproduction), the observed toxic effects in a reproduction test could be due to stress on one of many processes. Although this makes reproduction a robust endpoint for detecting stress, it may mask important population-level consequences if the different physiological processes stress affects are associated with different feedback mechanisms at the population level. We therefore evaluated how an observed reduction in reproduction found in a standard reproduction test translates to effects at the population level if it is caused by hypothetical toxicants affecting different physiological processes (physiological modes of action; PMoA). For this we used two consumer-resource models: the Yodzis-Innes (YI) model, which is mathematically tractable, but requires strong assumptions of energetic equivalence among individuals as they progress through ontogeny, and an individual-based implementation of dynamic energy budget theory (DEB-IBM), which relaxes these assumptions at the expense of tractability. We identified two important feedback mechanisms controlling the link between individual- and population-level stress in the YI model. These mechanisms turned out to also be important for interpreting some of the individual-based model results; for two PMoAs, they determined the population response to stress in both models. In contrast, others stress types involved more complex feedbacks, because they asymmetrically stressed the production efficiency of reproduction and somatic growth. The feedbacks associated with different PMoAs drastically altered the link between individual- and population-level effects. For example, hypothetical stressors with different PMoAs that had equal effects on reproduction had effects ranging from a negligible decline in biomass to population extinction. Thus, reproduction tests alone are of little use for extrapolating toxicity to the population level, but we showed that the ecological relevance of standard tests could easily be improved if growth is measured along with reproduction.}, language = {en} } @article{LinBergerGrimmetal.2012, author = {Lin, Yue and Berger, Uta and Grimm, Volker and Ji, Qian-Ru}, title = {Differences between symmetric and asymmetric facilitation matter - exploring the interplay between modes of positive and negative plant interactions}, series = {The journal of ecology}, volume = {100}, journal = {The journal of ecology}, number = {6}, publisher = {Wiley-Blackwell}, address = {Hoboken}, issn = {0022-0477}, doi = {10.1111/j.1365-2745.2012.02019.x}, pages = {1482 -- 1491}, year = {2012}, abstract = {Facilitation (positive interaction) has received increasing attention in plant ecology over the last decade. Just as for competition, distinguishing different modes of facilitation (mutualistic, commensal or even antagonistic) may be crucial. We therefore introduce the new concept of symmetric versus asymmetric facilitation and present a generic individual-based zone-of-influence model. The model simultaneously implements different modes of both facilitation and competition among individual plants via their overlapping zone of influence. Because we consider facilitation modes as a continuum related to environmental context, we integrated this concept with the stress-gradient hypothesis (SGH) by exploring differences in spatial pattern formation in self-thinning plants along a stress gradient in our model. The interplay among modes of interaction creates distinctly varied spatial patterns along stress gradients. When competition was symmetric, symmetric facilitation (mutualism) consistently led to plant aggregation along stress gradients. However, asymmetric facilitation (commensalism) produces plant aggregation only under more benign conditions but tends to intensify local competition and spatial segregation when conditions are harsh. When competition was completely asymmetric, different modes of facilitation contributed little to spatial aggregation. Symmetric facilitation significantly increased survival at the severe end of the stress gradient, which supports the claim of the SGH that facilitation should have generally positive net effects on plants under high stress levels. Asymmetric facilitation, however, was found to increase survival only under intermediate stress conditions, which contradicts the current predictions of the SGH. Synthesis. Our modelling study demonstrates that the interplay between modes of facilitation and competition affects different aspects of plant populations and communities, implying context-dependent outcomes and consequences. The explicit consideration of the modes and mechanisms of interactions (both facilitation and competition) and the nature of stress factors will help to extend the framework of the SGH and foster research on facilitation in plant ecology.}, language = {en} } @article{ZurellGrimmRossmanithetal.2012, author = {Zurell, Damaris and Grimm, Volker and Rossmanith, Eva and Zbinden, Niklaus and Zimmermann, Niklaus E. and Schr{\"o}der-Esselbach, Boris}, title = {Uncertainty in predictions of range dynamics black grouse climbing the Swiss Alps}, series = {Ecography : pattern and diversity in ecology ; research papers forum}, volume = {35}, journal = {Ecography : pattern and diversity in ecology ; research papers forum}, number = {7}, publisher = {Wiley-Blackwell}, address = {Hoboken}, issn = {0906-7590}, doi = {10.1111/j.1600-0587.2011.07200.x}, pages = {590 -- 603}, year = {2012}, abstract = {Empirical species distribution models (SDMs) constitute often the tool of choice for the assessment of rapid climate change effects on species vulnerability. Conclusions regarding extinction risks might be misleading, however, because SDMs do not explicitly incorporate dispersal or other demographic processes. Here, we supplement SDMs with a dynamic population model 1) to predict climate-induced range dynamics for black grouse in Switzerland, 2) to compare direct and indirect measures of extinction risks, and 3) to quantify uncertainty in predictions as well as the sources of that uncertainty. To this end, we linked models of habitat suitability to a spatially explicit, individual-based model. In an extensive sensitivity analysis, we quantified uncertainty in various model outputs introduced by different SDM algorithms, by different climate scenarios and by demographic model parameters. Potentially suitable habitats were predicted to shift uphill and eastwards. By the end of the 21st century, abrupt habitat losses were predicted in the western Prealps for some climate scenarios. In contrast, population size and occupied area were primarily controlled by currently negative population growth and gradually declined from the beginning of the century across all climate scenarios and SDM algorithms. However, predictions of population dynamic features were highly variable across simulations. Results indicate that inferring extinction probabilities simply from the quantity of suitable habitat may underestimate extinction risks because this may ignore important interactions between life history traits and available habitat. Also, in dynamic range predictions uncertainty in SDM algorithms and climate scenarios can become secondary to uncertainty in dynamic model components. Our study emphasises the need for principal evaluation tools like sensitivity analysis in order to assess uncertainty and robustness in dynamic range predictions. A more direct benefit of such robustness analysis is an improved mechanistic understanding of dynamic species responses to climate change.}, language = {en} } @article{PavlovaNabeNielsenDietzetal.2014, author = {Pavlova, Viola and Nabe-Nielsen, Jacob and Dietz, Rune and Svenning, Jens-Christian and Vorkamp, Katrin and Riget, Frank Farso and Sonne, Christian and Letcher, Robert J. and Grimm, Volker}, title = {Field metabolic rate and PCB adipose tissue deposition efficiency in East Greenland polar bears derived from contaminant monitoring data}, series = {PLoS one}, volume = {9}, journal = {PLoS one}, number = {8}, publisher = {PLoS}, address = {San Fransisco}, issn = {1932-6203}, doi = {10.1371/journal.pone.0104037}, pages = {10}, year = {2014}, abstract = {Climate change will increasingly affect the natural habitat and diet of polar bears (Ursus maritimus). Understanding the energetic needs of polar bears is therefore important. We developed a theoretical method for estimating polar bear food consumption based on using the highly recalcitrant polychlorinated biphenyl (PCB) congener, 2,2',4,4',55-hexaCB (CB153) in bear adipose tissue as an indicator of food intake. By comparing the CB153 tissue concentrations in wild polar bears with estimates from a purposely designed individual-based model, we identified the possible combinations of field metabolic rates (FMR) and CB153 deposition efficiencies in East Greenland polar bears. Our simulations indicate that if 30\% of the CB153 consumed by polar bear individuals were deposited into their adipose tissue, the corresponding FMR would be only two times the basal metabolic rate. In contrast, if the modelled CB153 deposition efficiency were 10\%, adult polar bears would require six times more energy than that needed to cover basal metabolism. This is considerably higher than what has been assumed for polar bears in previous studies though it is similar to FMRs found in other marine mammals. An implication of this result is that even relatively small reductions in future feeding opportunities could impact the survival of East Greenland polar bears.}, language = {en} } @article{McNairNakagawaGrimm2014, author = {McNair, Alistair Senior and Nakagawa, Shinichi and Grimm, Volker}, title = {The evolutionary consequences of disrupted male mating signals: An agent-based modelling exploration of endocrine disrupting chemicals in the guppy}, series = {PLoS one}, volume = {9}, journal = {PLoS one}, number = {7}, publisher = {PLoS}, address = {San Fransisco}, issn = {1932-6203}, doi = {10.1371/journal.pone.0103100}, pages = {9}, year = {2014}, abstract = {Females may select a mate based on signalling traits that are believed to accurately correlate with heritable aspects of male quality. Anthropogenic actions, in particular chemicals released into the environment, are now disrupting the accuracy of mating signals to convey information about male quality. The long-term prediction for disrupted mating signals is most commonly loss of female preference. Yet, this prediction has rarely been tested using quantitative models. We use agent-based models to explore the effects of rapid disruption of mating signals. In our model, a gene determines survival. Males signal their level of genetic quality via a signal trait, which females use to select a mate. We allowed this system of sexual selection to become established, before introducing a disruption between the male signal trait and quality, which was similar in nature to that induced by exogenous chemicals. Finally, we assessed the capacity of the system to recover from this disruption. We found that within a relatively short time frame, disruption of mating signals led to a lasting loss of female preference. Decreases in mean viability at the population-level were also observed, because sexual-selection acting against newly arising deleterious mutations was relaxed. The ability of the population to recover from disrupted mating signals was strongly influenced by the mechanisms that promoted or maintained genetic diversity in traits under sexual selection. Our simple model demonstrates that environmental perturbations to the accuracy of male mating signals can result in a long-term loss of female preference for those signals within a few generations. What is more, the loss of this preference can have knock-on consequences for mean population fitness.}, language = {en} } @article{LiuSiblyGrimmetal.2013, author = {Liu, Chun and Sibly, Richard M. and Grimm, Volker and Thorbek, Pernille}, title = {Linking pesticide exposure and spatial dynamics an individual-based model of wood mouse (Apodemus sylvaticus) populations in agricultural landscapes}, series = {Ecological modelling : international journal on ecological modelling and engineering and systems ecolog}, volume = {248}, journal = {Ecological modelling : international journal on ecological modelling and engineering and systems ecolog}, number = {2}, publisher = {Elsevier}, address = {Amsterdam}, issn = {0304-3800}, doi = {10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2012.09.016}, pages = {92 -- 102}, year = {2013}, abstract = {The wood mouse is a common and abundant species in agricultural landscape and is a focal species in pesticide risk assessment. Empirical studies on the ecology of the wood mouse have provided sufficient information for the species to be modelled mechanistically. An individual-based model was constructed to explicitly represent the locations and movement patterns of individual mice. This together with the schedule of pesticide application allows prediction of the risk to the population from pesticide exposure. The model included life-history traits of wood mice as well as typical landscape dynamics in agricultural farmland in the UK. The model obtains a good fit to the available population data and is fit for risk assessment purposes. It can help identify spatio-temporal situations with the largest potential risk of exposure and enables extrapolation from individual-level endpoints to population-level effects. Largest risk of exposure to pesticides was found when good crop growth in the "sink" fields coincided with high "source" population densities in the hedgerows.}, language = {en} } @article{BailleulGrimmChionetal.2013, author = {Bailleul, Frederic and Grimm, Volker and Chion, Clement and Hammill, Mike}, title = {Modeling implications of food resource aggregation on animal migration phenology}, series = {Ecology and evolution}, volume = {3}, journal = {Ecology and evolution}, number = {8}, publisher = {Wiley-Blackwell}, address = {Hoboken}, issn = {2045-7758}, doi = {10.1002/ece3.656}, pages = {2535 -- 2546}, year = {2013}, abstract = {The distribution of poikilotherms is determined by the thermal structure of the marine environment that they are exposed to. Recent research has indicated that changes in migration phenology of beluga whales in the Arctic are triggered by changes in the thermal structure of the marine environment in their summering area. If sea temperatures reflect the spatial distribution of food resources, then changes in the thermal regime will affect how homogeneous or clumped food is distributed. We explore, by individual-based modelling, the hypothesis that changes in migration phenology are not necessarily or exclusively triggered by changes in food abundance, but also by changes in the spatial aggregation of food. We found that the level of food aggregation can significantly affect the relationship between the timing of the start of migration to the winter grounds and the total prey capture of individuals. Our approach strongly indicates that changes in the spatial distribution of food resources should be considered for understanding and quantitatively predicting changes in the phenology of animal migration.}, language = {en} } @article{CortesAvizandaJovaniAntonioDonazaretal.2014, author = {Cortes-Avizanda, Ainara and Jovani, Roger and Antonio Donazar, Jose and Grimm, Volker}, title = {Bird sky networks: How do avian scavengers use social information to find carrion?}, series = {Ecology : a publication of the Ecological Society of America}, volume = {95}, journal = {Ecology : a publication of the Ecological Society of America}, number = {7}, publisher = {Wiley}, address = {Washington}, issn = {0012-9658}, pages = {1799 -- 1808}, year = {2014}, abstract = {The relative contribution of personal and social information to explain individual and collective behavior in different species and contexts is an open question in animal ecology. In particular, there is a major lack of studies combining theoretical and empirical approaches to test the relative relevance of different hypothesized individual behaviors to predict empirical collective patterns. We used an individual-based model to confront three hypotheses about the information transfer between social scavengers (Griffon Vultures, Gyps fulvus) when searching for carrion: (1) Vultures only use personal information during foraging ("nonsocial" hypothesis); (2) they create long chains of vultures by following both other vultures that are flying towards carcasses and vultures that are following other vultures that are flying towards carcasses ("chains of vultures" hypothesis); and (3) vultures are only attracted by other vultures that are sinking vertically to a carcass ("local enhancement" hypothesis). The chains of vultures hypothesis has been used in existing models, but never been confronted with field data. Testing is important, though, because these hypotheses could have different management implications. The model was parameterized to mimic the behavior and the densities of both Griffon Vultures and carcasses in a 10 000-km(2) study area in northeastern Spain. We compared the number of vultures attending simulated carcasses with those attending 25 continuously monitored experimental carcasses in the field. Social hypotheses outperformed the nonsocial hypothesis. The chains of vultures hypothesis overestimated the number of vultures feeding on carcasses; the local enhancement hypothesis fitted closely to the empirical data. Supported by our results, we discuss mechanistic and adaptive considerations that reveal that local enhancement may be the key social mechanism behind collective foraging in this and likely other avian scavengers and/or social birds. It also highlights the current need for more studies confronting alternative models of key behaviors with empirical patterns in order to understand how collective behavior emerges in animal societies.}, language = {en} } @article{ToppingAlroeFarrelletal.2015, author = {Topping, Christopher J. and Alroe, Hugo Fjelsted and Farrell, Katharine N. and Grimm, Volker}, title = {Per Aspera ad Astra: Through Complex Population Modeling to Predictive Theory}, series = {The American naturalist : a bi-monthly journal devoted to the advancement and correlation of the biological sciences}, volume = {186}, journal = {The American naturalist : a bi-monthly journal devoted to the advancement and correlation of the biological sciences}, number = {5}, publisher = {Univ. of Chicago Press}, address = {Chicago}, issn = {0003-0147}, doi = {10.1086/683181}, pages = {669 -- 674}, year = {2015}, abstract = {Population models in ecology are often not good at predictions, even if they are complex and seem to be realistic enough. The reason for this might be that Occam's razor, which is key for minimal models exploring ideas and concepts, has been too uncritically adopted for more realistic models of systems. This can tic models too closely to certain situations, thereby preventing them from predicting the response to new conditions. We therefore advocate a new kind of parsimony to improve the application of Occam's razor. This new parsimony balances two contrasting strategies for avoiding errors in modeling: avoiding inclusion of nonessential factors (false inclusions) and avoiding exclusion of sometimes-important factors (false exclusions). It involves a synthesis of traditional modeling and analysis, used to describe the essentials of mechanistic relationships, with elements that arc included in a model because they have been reported to be or can arguably be assumed to be important under certain conditions. The resulting models should be able to reflect how the internal organization of populations change and thereby generate representations of the novel behavior necessary for complex predictions, including regime shifts.}, language = {en} } @article{StillmanRailsbackGiskeetal.2015, author = {Stillman, Richard A. and Railsback, Steven Floyd and Giske, Jarl and Berger, Uta and Grimm, Volker}, title = {Making Predictions in a Changing World: The Benefits of Individual-Based Ecology}, series = {Bioscience}, volume = {65}, journal = {Bioscience}, number = {2}, publisher = {Oxford Univ. Press}, address = {Oxford}, issn = {0006-3568}, doi = {10.1093/biosci/biu192}, pages = {140 -- 150}, year = {2015}, abstract = {Ecologists urgently need a better ability to predict how environmental change affects biodiversity. We examine individual-based ecology (IBE), a research paradigm that promises better a predictive ability by using individual-based models (IBMs) to represent ecological dynamics as arising from how individuals interact with their environment and with each other. A key advantage of IBMs is that the basis for predictions-fitness maximization by individual organisms-is more general and reliable than the empirical relationships that other models depend on. Case studies illustrate the usefulness and predictive success of long-term IBE programs. The pioneering programs had three phases: conceptualization, implementation, and diversification. Continued validation of models runs throughout these phases. The breakthroughs that make IBE more productive include standards for describing and validating IBMs, improved and standardized theory for individual traits and behavior, software tools, and generalized instead of system-specific IBMs. We provide guidelines for pursuing IBE and a vision for future IBE research.}, language = {en} } @article{GergsZenkerGrimmetal.2013, author = {Gergs, Andre and Zenker, Armin and Grimm, Volker and Preuss, Thomas G.}, title = {Chemical and natural stressors combined from cryptic effects to population extinction}, series = {Scientific reports}, volume = {3}, journal = {Scientific reports}, number = {2}, publisher = {Nature Publ. Group}, address = {London}, issn = {2045-2322}, doi = {10.1038/srep02036}, pages = {8}, year = {2013}, abstract = {In addition to natural stressors, populations are increasingly exposed to chemical pollutants released into the environment. We experimentally demonstrate the loss of resilience for Daphnia magna populations that are exposed to a combination of natural and chemical stressors even though effects on population size of a single stressor were cryptic, i.e. hard to detect statistically. Data on Daphnia population demography and along with model-based exploration of our predator-prey system revealed that direct trophic interactions changed the population size-structure and thereby increased population vulnerability to the toxicant which acts in a size selective manner. Moreover, population vulnerability to the toxicant increases with predator size and predation intensity whereas indirect trait-mediated interactions via predator kairomones may buffer chemical effects to a certain extent. Our study demonstrates that population size can be a poor endpoint for risk assessments of chemicals and that ignoring disturbance interactions can lead to severe underestimation of extinction risk.}, language = {en} } @article{ThieleGrimm2015, author = {Thiele, Jan C. and Grimm, Volker}, title = {Replicating and breaking models: good for you and good for ecology}, series = {Oikos}, volume = {124}, journal = {Oikos}, number = {6}, publisher = {Wiley-Blackwell}, address = {Hoboken}, issn = {0030-1299}, doi = {10.1111/oik.02170}, pages = {691 -- 696}, year = {2015}, abstract = {There are two major limitations to the potential of computational models in ecology for producing general insights: their design is path-dependent, reflecting different underlying questions, assumptions, and data, and there is too little robustness analysis exploring where the model mechanisms explaining certain observations break down. We here argue that both limitations could be overcome if modellers in ecology would more often replicate existing models, try to break the models, and explore modifications. Replication comprises the re-implementation of an existing model and the replication of its results. Breaking models means to identify under what conditions the mechanisms represented in a model can no longer explain observed phenomena. The benefits of replication include less effort being spent to enter the iterative stage of model development and having more time for systematic robustness analysis. A culture of replication would lead to increased credibility, coherence and efficiency of computational modelling and thereby facilitate theory development.}, language = {en} } @article{BecherGrimmThorbeketal.2014, author = {Becher, Matthias A. and Grimm, Volker and Thorbek, Pernille and Horn, Juliane and Kennedy, Peter J. and Osborne, Juliet L.}, title = {BEEHAVE: a systems model of honeybee colony dynamics and foraging to explore multifactorial causes of colony failure}, series = {Journal of applied ecology : an official journal of the British Ecological Society}, volume = {51}, journal = {Journal of applied ecology : an official journal of the British Ecological Society}, number = {2}, publisher = {Wiley-Blackwell}, address = {Hoboken}, issn = {0021-8901}, doi = {10.1111/1365-2664.12222}, pages = {470 -- 482}, year = {2014}, abstract = {BEEHAVE offers a valuable tool for researchers to design and focus field experiments, for regulators to explore the relative importance of stressors to devise management and policy advice and for beekeepers to understand and predict varroa dynamics and effects of management interventions. We expect that scientists and stakeholders will find a variety of applications for BEEHAVE, stimulating further model development and the possible inclusion of other stressors of potential importance to honeybee colony dynamics.}, language = {en} } @unpublished{GrimmThorbek2014, author = {Grimm, Volker and Thorbek, Pernille}, title = {Population models for ecological risk assessment of chemicals: Short introduction and summary of a special issue}, series = {Ecological modelling : international journal on ecological modelling and engineering and systems ecolog}, volume = {280}, journal = {Ecological modelling : international journal on ecological modelling and engineering and systems ecolog}, publisher = {Elsevier}, address = {Amsterdam}, issn = {0304-3800}, doi = {10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2014.01.017}, pages = {1 -- 4}, year = {2014}, language = {en} } @article{GroeneveldJohstKawaguchietal.2015, author = {Groeneveld, J{\"u}rgen and Johst, Karin and Kawaguchi, So and Meyer, Bettina and Teschke, Mathias and Grimm, Volker}, title = {How biological clocks and changing environmental conditions determine local population growth and species distribution in Antarctic krill (Euphausia superba): a conceptual model}, series = {Ecological modelling : international journal on ecological modelling and engineering and systems ecolog}, volume = {303}, journal = {Ecological modelling : international journal on ecological modelling and engineering and systems ecolog}, publisher = {Elsevier}, address = {Amsterdam}, issn = {0304-3800}, doi = {10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2015.02.009}, pages = {78 -- 86}, year = {2015}, abstract = {The Southern Ocean ecosystem is characterized by extreme seasonal changes in environmental factors such as day length, sea ice extent and food availability. The key species Antarctic krill (Euphausia superba) has evolved metabolic and behavioural seasonal rhythms to cope with these seasonal changes. We investigate the switch between a physiological less active and active period for adult krill, a rhythm which seems to be controlled by internal biological clocks. These biological clocks can be synchronized by environmental triggers such as day length and food availability. They have evolved for particular environmental regimes to synchronize predictable seasonal environmental changes with important life cycle functions of the species. In a changing environment the time when krill is metabolically active and the time of peak food availability may not overlap if krill's seasonal activity is solely determined by photoperiod (day length). This is especially true for the Atlantic sector of the Southern Ocean where the spatio-temporal ice cover dynamics are changing substantially with rising average temperatures. We developed an individual-based model for krill to explore the impact of photoperiod and food availability on the growth and demographics of krill. We simulated dynamics of local krill populations (with no movement of krill assumed) along a south-north gradient for different triggers of metabolic activity and different levels of food availability below the ice. We also observed the fate of larval krill which cannot switch to low metabolism and therefore are likely to overwinter under ice. Krill could only occupy the southern end of the gradient, where algae bloom only lasts for a short time, when alternative food supply under the ice was high and metabolic activity was triggered by photoperiod. The northern distribution was limited by lack of overwintering habitat for krill larvae due to short duration of sea ice cover even for high food content under the ice. The variability of the krill's length-frequency distributions varied for different triggers of metabolic activity, but did not depend on the sea ice extent. Our findings suggest a southward shift of krill populations due to reduction in the spatial sea ice extent, which is consistent with field observations. Overall, our results highlight the importance of the explicit consideration of spatio-temporal sea ice dynamics especially for larval krill together with temporal synchronization through internal clocks, triggered by environmental factors (photoperiod and food) in adult krill for the population modelling of krill. (C) 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.}, language = {en} } @article{GabsiHammersWirtzGrimmetal.2014, author = {Gabsi, Faten and Hammers-Wirtz, Monika and Grimm, Volker and Schaeffer, Andreas and Preuss, Thomas G.}, title = {Coupling different mechanistic effect models for capturing individual- and population-level effects of chemicals: Lessons from a case where standard risk assessment failed}, series = {Ecological modelling : international journal on ecological modelling and engineering and systems ecolog}, volume = {280}, journal = {Ecological modelling : international journal on ecological modelling and engineering and systems ecolog}, publisher = {Elsevier}, address = {Amsterdam}, issn = {0304-3800}, doi = {10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2013.06.018}, pages = {18 -- 29}, year = {2014}, abstract = {Current environmental risk assessment (ERA) of chemicals for aquatic invertebrates relies on standardized laboratory tests in which toxicity effects on individual survival, growth and reproduction are measured. Such tests determine the threshold concentration of a chemical below which no population-level effects are expected. How well this procedure captures effects on individuals and populations, however, remains an open question. Here we used mechanistic effect models, combining individual-level reproduction and survival models with an individual-based population model (IBM), to understand the individuals' responses and extrapolate them to the population level. We used a toxicant (Dispersogen A) for which adverse effects on laboratory populations were detected at the determined threshold concentration and thus challenged the conservatism of the current risk assessment method. Multiple toxicity effects on reproduction and survival were reported, in addition to effects on the F1 generation. We extrapolated commonly tested individual toxicity endpoints, reproduction and survival, to the population level using the IBM. Effects on reproduction were described via regression models. To select the most appropriate survival model, the IBM was run assuming either stochastic death (SD) or individual tolerance (IT). Simulations were run for different scenarios regarding the toxicant's effects: survival toxicity, reproductive toxicity, or survival and reproductive toxicity. As population-level endpoints, we used population size and structure and extinction risk. We found that survival represented as SD explained population dynamics better than IT. Integrating toxicity effects on both reproduction and survival yielded more accurate predictions of population effects than considering isolated effects. To fully capture population effects observed at high toxicant concentrations, toxicity effects transmitted to the F1 generation had to be integrated. Predicted extinction risk was highly sensitive to the assumptions about individual-level effects. Our results demonstrate that the endpoints used in current standard tests may not be sufficient for assessing the risk of adverse effects on populations. A combination of laboratory population experiments with mechanistic effect models is a powerful tool to better understand and predict effects on both individuals and populations. Mechanistic effect modelling thus holds great potential to improve the accuracy of ERA of chemicals in the future. (C) 2013 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.}, language = {en} } @article{MeliPalmqvistForbesetal.2014, author = {Meli, Mattia and Palmqvist, Annemette and Forbes, Valery E. and Groeneveld, J{\"u}rgen and Grimm, Volker}, title = {Two pairs of eyes are better than one: Combining individual-based and matrix models for ecological risk assessment of chemicals}, series = {Ecological modelling : international journal on ecological modelling and engineering and systems ecolog}, volume = {280}, journal = {Ecological modelling : international journal on ecological modelling and engineering and systems ecolog}, publisher = {Elsevier}, address = {Amsterdam}, issn = {0304-3800}, doi = {10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2013.07.027}, pages = {40 -- 52}, year = {2014}, abstract = {Current chemical risk assessment procedures may result in imprecise estimates of risk due to sometimes arbitrary simplifying assumptions. As a way to incorporate ecological complexity and improve risk estimates, mechanistic effect models have been recommended. However, effect modeling has not yet been extensively used for regulatory purposes, one of the main reasons being uncertainty about which model type to use to answer specific regulatory questions. We took an individual-based model (IBM), which was developed for risk assessment of soil invertebrates and includes avoidance of highly contaminated areas, and contrasted it with a simpler, more standardized model, based on the generic metapopulation matrix model RAMAS. In the latter the individuals within a sub-population are not treated as separate entities anymore and the spatial resolution is lower. We explored consequences of model aggregation in terms of assessing population-level effects for different spatial distributions of a toxic chemical. For homogeneous contamination of the soil, we found good agreement between the two models, whereas for heterogeneous contamination, at different concentrations and percentages of contaminated area, RAMAS results were alternatively similar to IBM results with and without avoidance, and different food levels. This inconsistency is explained on the basis of behavioral responses that are included in the IBM but not in RAMAS. Overall, RAMAS was less sensitive than the IBM in detecting population-level effects of different spatial patterns of exposure. We conclude that choosing the right model type for risk assessment of chemicals depends on whether or not population-level effects of small-scale heterogeneity in exposure need to be detected. We recommend that if in doubt, both model types should be used and compared. Describing both models following the same standard format, the ODD protocol, makes them equally transparent and understandable. The simpler model helps to build up trust for the more complex model and can be used for more homogeneous exposure patterns. The more complex model helps detecting and understanding the limitations of the simpler model and is needed to ensure ecological realism for more complex exposure scenarios. (C) 2013 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.}, language = {en} } @misc{AugusiakVandenBrinkGrimm2014, author = {Augusiak, Jacqueline and Van den Brink, Paul J. and Grimm, Volker}, title = {Merging validation and evaluation of ecological models to 'evaludation': A review of terminology and a practical approach}, series = {Ecological modelling : international journal on ecological modelling and engineering and systems ecolog}, volume = {280}, journal = {Ecological modelling : international journal on ecological modelling and engineering and systems ecolog}, publisher = {Elsevier}, address = {Amsterdam}, issn = {0304-3800}, doi = {10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2013.11.009}, pages = {117 -- 128}, year = {2014}, abstract = {Confusion about model validation is one of the main challenges in using ecological models for decision support, such as the regulation of pesticides. Decision makers need to know whether a model is a sufficiently good representation of its real counterpart and what criteria can be used to answer this question. Unclear terminology is one of the main obstacles to a good understanding of what model validation is, how it works, and what it can deliver. Therefore, we performed a literature review and derived a standard set of terms. 'Validation' was identified as a catch-all term, which is thus useless for any practical purpose. We introduce the term 'evaludation', a fusion of 'evaluation' and 'validation', to describe the entire process of assessing a model's quality and reliability. Considering the iterative nature of model development, the modelling cycle, we identified six essential elements of evaludation: (i) 'data evaluation' for scrutinising the quality of numerical and qualitative data used for model development and testing; (ii) 'conceptual model evaluation' for examining the simplifying assumptions underlying a model's design; (iii) 'implementation verification' for testing the model's implementation in equations and as a computer programme; (iv) 'model output verification' for comparing model output to data and patterns that guided model design and were possibly used for calibration; (v) 'model analysis' for exploring the model's sensitivity to changes in parameters and process formulations to make sure that the mechanistic basis of main behaviours of the model has been well understood; and (vi) 'model output corroboration' for comparing model output to new data and patterns that were not used for model development and parameterisation. Currently, most decision makers require 'validating' a model by testing its predictions with new experiments or data. Despite being desirable, this is neither sufficient nor necessary for a model to be useful for decision support. We believe that the proposed set of terms and its relation to the modelling cycle can help to make quality assessments and reality checks of ecological models more comprehensive and transparent. (C) 2013 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.}, language = {en} } @article{SundelofGrimmUlmestrandetal.2015, author = {Sundelof, Andreas and Grimm, Volker and Ulmestrand, Mats and Fiksen, Oyvind}, title = {Modelling harvesting strategies for the lobster fishery in northern Europe: the importance of protecting egg-bearing females}, series = {Population ecology}, volume = {57}, journal = {Population ecology}, number = {1}, publisher = {Springer}, address = {Tokyo}, issn = {1438-3896}, doi = {10.1007/s10144-014-0460-3}, pages = {237 -- 251}, year = {2015}, language = {en} } @article{GrimmBerger2016, author = {Grimm, Volker and Berger, Uta}, title = {Robustness analysis: Deconstructing computational models for ecological theory and applications}, series = {Ecological modelling : international journal on ecological modelling and engineering and systems ecolog}, volume = {326}, journal = {Ecological modelling : international journal on ecological modelling and engineering and systems ecolog}, publisher = {Elsevier}, address = {Amsterdam}, issn = {0304-3800}, doi = {10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2015.07.018}, pages = {162 -- 167}, year = {2016}, abstract = {The design of computational models is path-dependent: the choices made in each step during model development constrain the choices that are available in the subsequent steps. The actual path of model development can be extremely different, even for the same system, because the path depends on the question addressed, the availability of data, and the consideration of specific expert knowledge, in addition to the experience, background, and modelling preferences of the modellers. Thus, insights from different models are practically impossible to integrate, which hinders the development of general theory. We therefore suggest augmenting the current culture of communicating models as working just fine with a culture of presenting analyses in which we try to break models, i.e., model mechanisms explaining certain observations break down. We refer to the systematic attempts to break a model as "robustness analysis" (RA). RA is the systematic deconstruction of a model by forcefully changing the model's parameters, structure, and representation of processes. We discuss the nature and elements of RA and provide brief examples. RA cannot be completely formalized into specific techniques and instead corresponds to detective work that is driven by general questions and specific hypotheses, with strong attention focused on unusual behaviours. Both individual modellers and ecological modelling in general will benefit from RA because RA helps with understanding models and identifying "robust theories", which are general principles that are independent of the idiosyncrasies of specific models. Integrating the results of RAs from different models to address certain systems or questions will then provide a comprehensive overview of when certain mechanisms control system behaviour and when and why this control ceases. This approach can provide insights into the mechanisms that lead to regime shifts in actual ecological systems.}, language = {en} } @article{SchererJeltschGrimmetal.2016, author = {Scherer, Cedric and Jeltsch, Florian and Grimm, Volker and Blaum, Niels}, title = {Merging trait-based and individual-based modelling: An animal functional type approach to explore the responses of birds to climatic and land use changes in semi-arid African savannas}, series = {Ecological modelling : international journal on ecological modelling and engineering and systems ecolog}, volume = {326}, journal = {Ecological modelling : international journal on ecological modelling and engineering and systems ecolog}, publisher = {Elsevier}, address = {Amsterdam}, issn = {0304-3800}, doi = {10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2015.07.005}, pages = {75 -- 89}, year = {2016}, abstract = {Climate change and land use management practices are major drivers of biodiversity in terrestrial ecosystems. To understand and predict resulting changes in community structures, individual-based and spatially explicit population models are a useful tool but require detailed data sets for each species. More generic approaches are thus needed. Here we present a trait-based functional type approach to model savanna birds. The aim of our model is to explore the response of different bird functional types to modifications in habitat structure. The functional types are characterized by different traits, in particular body mass, which is related to life-history traits (reproduction and mortality) and spatial scales (home range area and dispersal ability), as well as the use of vegetation structures for foraging and nesting, which is related to habitat quality and suitability. We tested the performance of the functional types in artificial landscapes varying in shrub:grass ratio and clumping intensity of shrub patches. We found that an increase in shrub encroachment and a decrease in habitat quality caused by land use mismanagement and climate change endangered all simulated bird functional types. The strength of this effect was related to the preferred habitat. Furthermore, larger-bodied insectivores and omnivores were more prone to extinction due to shrub encroachment compared to small-bodied species. Insectivorous and omnivorous birds were more sensitive to clumping intensity of shrubs whereas herbivorous and carnivorous birds were most affected by a decreasing amount of grass cover. From an applied point of view, our findings emphasize that policies such as woody plant removal and a reduction in livestock stocking rates to prevent shrub encroachment should prioritize the enlargement of existing grassland patches. Overall, our results show that the combination of an individual-based modelling approach with carefully defined functional types can provide a powerful tool for exploring biodiversity responses to environmental changes. Furthermore, the increasing accumulation of worldwide data sets on species' core and soft traits (surrogates to determine core traits indirectly) on one side and the refinement of conceptual frameworks for animal functional types on the other side will further improve functional type approaches which consider the sensitivities of multiple species to climate change, habitat loss, and fragmentation.}, language = {en} } @article{GrimmBergerBastiansenetal.2006, author = {Grimm, Volker and Berger, Uta and Bastiansen, Finn and Eliassen, Sigrunn and Ginot, Vincent and Giske, Jarl and Goss-Custard, John and Grand, Tamara and Heinz, Simone K. and Huse, Geir and Huth, Andreas and Jepsen, Jane U. and Jorgensen, Christian and Mooij, Wolf M. and Mueller, Birgit and Piou, Cyril and Railsback, Steven Floyd and Robbins, Andrew M. and Robbins, Martha M. and Rossmanith, Eva and Rueger, Nadja and Strand, Espen and Souissi, Sami and Stillman, Richard A. and Vabo, Rune and Visser, Ute and DeAngelis, Donald L.}, title = {A standard protocol for describing individual-based and agent-based models}, series = {Ecological modelling : international journal on ecological modelling and engineering and systems ecolog}, volume = {198}, journal = {Ecological modelling : international journal on ecological modelling and engineering and systems ecolog}, publisher = {Elsevier}, address = {Amsterdam}, issn = {0304-3800}, doi = {10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2006.04.023}, pages = {115 -- 126}, year = {2006}, abstract = {Simulation models that describe autonomous individual organisms (individual based models, IBM) or agents (agent-based models, ABM) have become a widely used tool, not only in ecology, but also in many other disciplines dealing with complex systems made up of autonomous entities. However, there is no standard protocol for describing such simulation models, which can make them difficult to understand and to duplicate. This paper presents a proposed standard protocol, ODD, for describing IBMs and ABMs, developed and tested by 28 modellers who cover a wide range of fields within ecology. This protocol consists of three blocks (Overview, Design concepts, and Details), which are subdivided into seven elements: Purpose, State variables and scales, Process overview and scheduling, Design concepts, Initialization, Input, and Submodels. We explain which aspects of a model should be described in each element, and we present an example to illustrate the protocol in use. In addition, 19 examples are available in an Online Appendix. We consider ODD as a first step for establishing a more detailed common format of the description of IBMs and ABMs. Once initiated, the protocol will hopefully evolve as it becomes used by a sufficiently large proportion of modellers. (c) 2006 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.}, language = {en} } @article{EgliWeiseRadchuketal.2019, author = {Egli, Lukas and Weise, Hanna and Radchuk, Viktoriia and Seppelt, Ralf and Grimm, Volker}, title = {Exploring resilience with agent-based models: State of the art, knowledge gaps and recommendations for coping with multidimensionality}, series = {Ecological complexity}, volume = {40}, journal = {Ecological complexity}, publisher = {Elsevier}, address = {Amsterdam}, issn = {1476-945X}, doi = {10.1016/j.ecocom.2018.06.008}, pages = {7}, year = {2019}, abstract = {Anthropogenic pressures increasingly alter natural systems. Therefore, understanding the resilience of agent-based complex systems such as ecosystems, i.e. their ability to absorb these pressures and sustain their functioning and services, is a major challenge. However, the mechanisms underlying resilience are still poorly understood. A main reason for this is the multidimensionality of both resilience, embracing the three fundamental stability properties recovery, resistance and persistence, and of the specific situations for which stability properties can be assessed. Agent-based models (ABM) complement empirical research which is, for logistic reasons, limited in coping with these multiple dimensions. Besides their ability to integrate multidimensionality through extensive manipulation in a fully controlled system, ABMs can capture the emergence of system resilience from individual interactions and feedbacks across different levels of organization. To assess the extent to which this potential of ABMs has already been exploited, we reviewed the state of the art in exploring resilience and its multidimensionality in ecological and socio-ecological systems with ABMs. We found that the potential of ABMs is not utilized in most models, as they typically focus on a single dimension of resilience by using variability as a proxy for persistence, and are limited to one reference state, disturbance type and scale. Moreover, only few studies explicitly test the ability of different mechanisms to support resilience. To overcome these limitations, we recommend to simultaneously assess multiple stability properties for different situations and under consideration of the mechanisms that are hypothesised to render a system resilient. This will help us to better exploit the potential of ABMs to understand and quantify resilience mechanisms, and hence support solving real-world problems related to the resilience of agent-based complex systems.}, language = {en} } @misc{JeltschGrimmReegetal.2019, author = {Jeltsch, Florian and Grimm, Volker and Reeg, Jette and Schl{\"a}gel, Ulrike E.}, title = {Give chance a chance}, series = {Postprints der Universit{\"a}t Potsdam Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe}, journal = {Postprints der Universit{\"a}t Potsdam Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe}, number = {742}, issn = {1866-8372}, doi = {10.25932/publishup-43532}, url = {http://nbn-resolving.de/urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-435320}, pages = {19}, year = {2019}, abstract = {A large part of biodiversity theory is driven by the basic question of what allows species to coexist in spite of a confined number of niches. A substantial theoretical background to this question is provided by modern coexistence theory (MCT), which rests on mathematical approaches of invasion analysis to categorize underlying mechanisms into factors that reduce either niche overlap (stabilizing mechanisms) or the average fitness differences of species (equalizing mechanisms). While MCT has inspired biodiversity theory in the search for these underlying mechanisms, we feel that the strong focus on coexistence causes a bias toward the most abundant species and neglects the plethora of species that are less abundant and often show high local turnover. Given the more stochastic nature of their occurrence, we advocate a complementary cross-level approach that links individuals, small populations, and communities and explicitly takes into account (1) a more complete inclusion of environmental and demographic stochasticity affecting small populations, (2) intraspecific trait variation and behavioral plasticity, and (3) local heterogeneities, interactions, and feedbacks. Focusing on mechanisms that drive the temporary coviability of species rather than infinite coexistence, we suggest a new approach that could be dubbed coviability analysis (CVA). From a modeling perspective, CVA builds on the merged approaches of individual-based modeling and population viability analysis but extends them to the community level. From an empirical viewpoint, CVA calls for a stronger integration of spatiotemporal data on variability and noise, changing drivers, and interactions at the level of individuals. The resulting large volumes of data from multiple sources could be strongly supported by novel techniques tailored to the discovery of complex patterns in high-dimensional data. By complementing MCT through a stronger focus on the coviability of less common species, this approach can help make modern biodiversity theory more comprehensive, predictive, and relevant for applications.}, language = {en} } @article{JeltschGrimmReegetal.2019, author = {Jeltsch, Florian and Grimm, Volker and Reeg, Jette and Schl{\"a}gel, Ulrike E.}, title = {Give chance a chance}, series = {Ecosphere}, volume = {10}, journal = {Ecosphere}, number = {5}, publisher = {ESA}, address = {Ithaca, NY}, issn = {2150-8925}, doi = {10.1002/ecs2.2700}, pages = {19}, year = {2019}, abstract = {A large part of biodiversity theory is driven by the basic question of what allows species to coexist in spite of a confined number of niches. A substantial theoretical background to this question is provided by modern coexistence theory (MCT), which rests on mathematical approaches of invasion analysis to categorize underlying mechanisms into factors that reduce either niche overlap (stabilizing mechanisms) or the average fitness differences of species (equalizing mechanisms). While MCT has inspired biodiversity theory in the search for these underlying mechanisms, we feel that the strong focus on coexistence causes a bias toward the most abundant species and neglects the plethora of species that are less abundant and often show high local turnover. Given the more stochastic nature of their occurrence, we advocate a complementary cross-level approach that links individuals, small populations, and communities and explicitly takes into account (1) a more complete inclusion of environmental and demographic stochasticity affecting small populations, (2) intraspecific trait variation and behavioral plasticity, and (3) local heterogeneities, interactions, and feedbacks. Focusing on mechanisms that drive the temporary coviability of species rather than infinite coexistence, we suggest a new approach that could be dubbed coviability analysis (CVA). From a modeling perspective, CVA builds on the merged approaches of individual-based modeling and population viability analysis but extends them to the community level. From an empirical viewpoint, CVA calls for a stronger integration of spatiotemporal data on variability and noise, changing drivers, and interactions at the level of individuals. The resulting large volumes of data from multiple sources could be strongly supported by novel techniques tailored to the discovery of complex patterns in high-dimensional data. By complementing MCT through a stronger focus on the coviability of less common species, this approach can help make modern biodiversity theory more comprehensive, predictive, and relevant for applications.}, language = {en} } @article{AyllonRailsbackVincenzietal.2016, author = {Ayllon, Daniel and Railsback, Steven Floyd and Vincenzi, Simone and Groeneveld, Juergen and Almodoevar, Ana and Grimm, Volker}, title = {InSTREAM-Gen: Modelling eco-evolutionary dynamics of trout populations under anthropogenic environmental change}, series = {Ecological modelling : international journal on ecological modelling and engineering and systems ecolog}, volume = {326}, journal = {Ecological modelling : international journal on ecological modelling and engineering and systems ecolog}, publisher = {Elsevier}, address = {Amsterdam}, issn = {0304-3800}, doi = {10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2015.07.026}, pages = {36 -- 53}, year = {2016}, abstract = {Current rates of environmental change are exceeding the capacity of many populations to adapt to new conditions and thus avoid demographic collapse and ultimate extinction. In particular, cold-water freshwater fish species are predicted to experience strong selective pressure from climate change and a wide range of interacting anthropogenic stressors in the near future. To implement effective management and conservation measures, it is crucial to quantify the maximum rate of change that cold-water freshwater fish populations can withstand. Here, we present a spatially explicit eco-genetic individual-based model, inSTREAM-Gen, to predict the eco-evolutionary dynamics of stream-dwelling trout under anthropogenic environmental change. The model builds on a well-tested demographic model, which includes submodels of river dynamics, bioenergetics, and adaptive habitat selection, with a new genetic module that allows exploration of genetic and life-history adaptations to new environments. The genetic module models the transmission of two key traits, size at emergence and maturity size threshold. We parameterized the model for a brown trout (Salmo trutta L.) population at the warmest edge of its range to validate it and analyze its sensitivity to parameters under contrasting thermal profiles. To illustrate potential applications of the model, we analyzed the population's demographic and evolutionary dynamics under scenarios of (1) climate change-induced warming, and (2) warming plus flow reduction resulting from climate and land use change, compared to (3) a baseline of no environmental change. The model predicted severe declines in density and biomass under climate warming. These declines were lower than expected at range margins because of evolution towards smaller size at both emergence and maturation compared to the natural evolution under the baseline conditions. Despite stronger evolutionary responses, declining rates were substantially larger under the combined warming and flow reduction scenario, leading to a high probability of population extinction over contemporary time frames. Therefore, adaptive responses could not prevent extinction under high rates of environmental change. Our model demonstrates critical elements of next generation ecological modelling aiming at predictions in a changing world as it accounts for spatial and temporal resource heterogeneity, while merging individual behaviour and bioenergetics with microevolutionary adaptations.}, language = {en} } @article{HornBecherKennedyetal.2016, author = {Horn, Juliane and Becher, Matthias A. and Kennedy, Peter J. and Osborne, Juliet L. and Grimm, Volker}, title = {Multiple stressors: using the honeybee model BEEHAVE to explore how spatial and temporal forage stress affects colony resilience}, series = {Oikos}, volume = {125}, journal = {Oikos}, publisher = {Wiley-Blackwell}, address = {Hoboken}, issn = {0030-1299}, doi = {10.1111/oik.02636}, pages = {1001 -- 1016}, year = {2016}, abstract = {The causes underlying the increased mortality of honeybee Apis mellifera colonies observed over the past decade remain unclear. Since so far the evidence for monocausal explanations is equivocal, involvement of multiple stressors is generally assumed. We here focus on various aspects of forage availability, which have received less attention than other stressors because it is virtually impossible to explore them empirically. We applied the colony model BEEHAVE, which links within-hive dynamics and foraging, to stylized landscape settings to explore how foraging distance, forage supply, and "forage gaps", i.e. periods in which honeybees cannot find any nectar and pollen, affect colony resilience and the mechanisms behind. We found that colony extinction was mainly driven by foraging distance, but the timing of forage gaps had strongest effects on time to extinction. Sensitivity to forage gaps of 15 days was highest in June or July even if otherwise forage availability was sufficient to survive. Forage availability affected colonies via cascading effects on queen's egg-laying rate, reduction of new-emerging brood stages developing into adult workers, pollen debt, lack of workforce for nursing, and reduced foraging activity. Forage gaps in July led to reduction in egg-laying and increased mortality of brood stages at a time when the queen's seasonal egg-laying rate is at its maximum, leading to colony failure over time. Our results demonstrate that badly timed forage gaps interacting with poor overall forage supply reduce honeybee colony resilience. Existing regulation mechanisms which in principle enable colonies to cope with varying forage supply in a given landscape and year, such as a reduction in egg-laying, have only a certain capacity. Our results are hypothetical, as they are obtained from simplified landscape settings, but they are consistent with existing empirical knowledge. They offer ample opportunities for testing the predicted effects of forage stress in controlled experiments.}, language = {en} } @article{MartinCzesnyWahletal.2016, author = {Martin, Benjamin T. and Czesny, Sergiusz and Wahl, David H. and Grimm, Volker}, title = {Scale-dependent role of demography and dispersal on the distribution of populations in heterogeneous landscapes}, series = {Oikos}, volume = {125}, journal = {Oikos}, publisher = {Wiley-Blackwell}, address = {Hoboken}, issn = {0030-1299}, doi = {10.1111/oik.02345}, pages = {667 -- 673}, year = {2016}, abstract = {Both dispersal and local demographic processes determine a population's distribution among habitats of varying quality, yet most theory, experiments, and field studies have focused on the former. We use a generic model to show how both processes contribute to a population's distribution, and how the relative importance of each mechanism depends on scale. In contrast to studies only considering habitat-dependent dispersal, we show that predictions of ideal free distribution (IFD) theory are relevant even at landscape scales, where the assumptions of IFD theory are violated. This is because scales that inhibit one process, promote the other's ability to drive populations to the IFD. Furthermore, because multiple processes can generate IFDs, the pattern alone does not specify a causal mechanism. This is important because populations with IFDs generated by dispersal or demography respond much differently to shifts in resource distributions.}, language = {en} } @article{DalleauKramerSchadtGangatetal.2019, author = {Dalleau, Mayeul and Kramer-Schadt, Stephanie and Gangat, Yassine and Bourjea, Jerome and Lajoie, Gilles and Grimm, Volker}, title = {Modeling the emergence of migratory corridors and foraging hot spots of the green sea turtle}, series = {Ecology and evolution}, volume = {9}, journal = {Ecology and evolution}, number = {18}, publisher = {Wiley}, address = {Hoboken}, issn = {2045-7758}, doi = {10.1002/ece3.5552}, pages = {10317 -- 10342}, year = {2019}, abstract = {Environmental factors shape the spatial distribution and dynamics of populations. Understanding how these factors interact with movement behavior is critical for efficient conservation, in particular for migratory species. Adult female green sea turtles, Chelonia mydas, migrate between foraging and nesting sites that are generally separated by thousands of kilometers. As an emblematic endangered species, green turtles have been intensively studied, with a focus on nesting, migration, and foraging. Nevertheless, few attempts integrated these behaviors and their trade-offs by considering the spatial configurations of foraging and nesting grounds as well as environmental heterogeneity like oceanic currents and food distribution. We developed an individual-based model to investigate the impact of local environmental conditions on emerging migratory corridors and reproductive output and to thereby identify conservation priority sites. The model integrates movement, nesting, and foraging behavior. Despite being largely conceptual, the model captured realistic movement patterns which confirm field studies. The spatial distribution of migratory corridors and foraging hot spots was mostly constrained by features of the regional landscape, such as nesting site locations, distribution of feeding patches, and oceanic currents. These constraints also explained the mixing patterns in regional forager communities. By implementing alternative decision strategies of the turtles, we found that foraging site fidelity and nesting investment, two characteristics of green turtles' biology, are favorable strategies under unpredictable environmental conditions affecting their habitats. Based on our results, we propose specific guidelines for the regional conservation of green turtles as well as future research suggestions advancing spatial ecology of sea turtles. Being implemented in an easy to learn open-source software, our model can coevolve with the collection and analysis of new data on energy budget and movement into a generic tool for sea turtle research and conservation. Our modeling approach could also be useful for supporting the conservation of other migratory marine animals.}, language = {en} } @article{RadchukDeLaenderCabraletal.2019, author = {Radchuk, Viktoriia and De Laender, Frederik and Cabral, Juliano Sarmento and Boulangeat, Isabelle and Crawford, Michael Scott and Bohn, Friedrich and De Raedt, Jonathan and Scherer, Cedric and Svenning, Jens-Christian and Thonicke, Kirsten and Schurr, Frank M. and Grimm, Volker and Kramer-Schadt, Stephanie}, title = {The dimensionality of stability depends on disturbance type}, series = {Ecology letters}, volume = {22}, journal = {Ecology letters}, number = {4}, publisher = {Wiley}, address = {Hoboken}, issn = {1461-023X}, doi = {10.1111/ele.13226}, pages = {674 -- 684}, year = {2019}, abstract = {Ecosystems respond in various ways to disturbances. Quantifying ecological stability therefore requires inspecting multiple stability properties, such as resistance, recovery, persistence and invariability. Correlations among these properties can reduce the dimensionality of stability, simplifying the study of environmental effects on ecosystems. A key question is how the kind of disturbance affects these correlations. We here investigated the effect of three disturbance types (random, species-specific, local) applied at four intensity levels, on the dimensionality of stability at the population and community level. We used previously parameterized models that represent five natural communities, varying in species richness and the number of trophic levels. We found that disturbance type but not intensity affected the dimensionality of stability and only at the population level. The dimensionality of stability also varied greatly among species and communities. Therefore, studying stability cannot be simplified to using a single metric and multi-dimensional assessments are still to be recommended.}, language = {en} } @article{CrawfordJeltschMayetal.2018, author = {Crawford, Michael and Jeltsch, Florian and May, Felix and Grimm, Volker and Schl{\"a}gel, Ulrike E.}, title = {Intraspecific trait variation increases species diversity in a trait-based grassland model}, series = {Oikos}, volume = {128}, journal = {Oikos}, number = {3}, publisher = {Wiley}, address = {Hoboken}, issn = {0030-1299}, doi = {10.1111/oik.05567}, pages = {441 -- 455}, year = {2018}, abstract = {Intraspecific trait variation (ITV) is thought to play a significant role in community assembly, but the magnitude and direction of its influence are not well understood. Although it may be critical to better explain population persistence, species interactions, and therefore biodiversity patterns, manipulating ITV in experiments is challenging. We therefore incorporated ITV into a trait- and individual-based model of grassland community assembly by adding variation to the plants' functional traits, which then drive life-history tradeoffs. Varying the amount of ITV in the simulation, we examine its influence on pairwise-coexistence and then on the species diversity in communities of different initial sizes. We find that ITV increases the ability of the weakest species to invade most, but that this effect does not scale to the community level, where the primary effect of ITV is to increase the persistence and abundance of the competitively-average species. Diversity of the initial community is also of critical importance in determining ITV's efficacy; above a threshold of interspecific diversity, ITV does not increase diversity further. For communities below this threshold, ITV mainly helps to increase diversity in those communities that would otherwise be low-diversity. These findings suggest that ITV actively maintains diversity by helping the species on the margins of persistence, but mostly in habitats of relatively low alpha and beta diversity.}, language = {en} } @misc{LanghammerThoberLangeetal.2019, author = {Langhammer, Maria and Thober, Jule and Lange, Martin and Frank, Karin and Grimm, Volker}, title = {Agricultural landscape generators for simulation models}, series = {Ecological modelling : international journal on ecological modelling and engineering and systems ecolog}, volume = {393}, journal = {Ecological modelling : international journal on ecological modelling and engineering and systems ecolog}, publisher = {Elsevier}, address = {Amsterdam}, issn = {0304-3800}, doi = {10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2018.12.010}, pages = {135 -- 151}, year = {2019}, abstract = {There is an increasing need for an assessment of the impacts of land use and land use change (LUCC). In this context, simulation models are valuable tools for investigating the impacts of stakeholder actions or policy decisions. Agricultural landscape generators (ALGs), which systematically and automatically generate realistic but simplified representations of land cover in agricultural landscapes, can provide the input for LUCC models. We reviewed existing ALGs in terms of their objectives, design and scope. We found eight ALGs that met our definition. They were based either on generic mathematical algorithms (pattern-based) or on representations of ecological or land use processes (process-based). Most ALGs integrate only a few landscape metrics, which limits the design of the landscape pattern and thus the range of applications. For example, only a few specific farming systems have been implemented. We conclude that existing ALGs contain useful approaches that can be used for specific purposes, but ideally generic modular ALGs are developed that can be used for a wide range of scenarios, regions and model types. We have compiled features of such generic ALGs and propose a possible software architecture. Considerable joint efforts are required to develop such generic ALGs, but the benefits in terms of a better understanding and development of more efficient agricultural policies would be high.}, language = {en} } @misc{RadchukKramerSchadtGrimm2019, author = {Radchuk, Viktoriia and Kramer-Schadt, Stephanie and Grimm, Volker}, title = {Transferability of mechanistic ecological models is about emergence}, series = {Trends in ecology and evolution}, volume = {34}, journal = {Trends in ecology and evolution}, number = {6}, publisher = {Elsevier}, address = {London}, issn = {0169-5347}, doi = {10.1016/j.tree.2019.01.010}, pages = {487 -- 488}, year = {2019}, language = {en} } @article{TeckentrupGrimmKramerSchadtetal.2018, author = {Teckentrup, Lisa and Grimm, Volker and Kramer-Schadt, Stephanie and Jeltsch, Florian}, title = {Community consequences of foraging under fear}, series = {Ecological modelling : international journal on ecological modelling and engineering and systems ecolog}, volume = {383}, journal = {Ecological modelling : international journal on ecological modelling and engineering and systems ecolog}, publisher = {Elsevier}, address = {Amsterdam}, issn = {0304-3800}, doi = {10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2018.05.015}, pages = {80 -- 90}, year = {2018}, abstract = {Non-consumptive effects of predators within ecosystems can alter the behavior of individual prey species, and have cascading effects on other trophic levels. In this context, an understanding of non-consumptive predator effects on the whole prey community is crucial for predicting community structure and composition, hence biodiversity patterns. We used an individual-based, spatially-explicit modelling approach to investigate the consequences of landscapes of fear on prey community metrics. The model spans multiple hierarchical levels from individual home range formation based on food availability and perceived predation risk to consequences on prey community structure and composition. This mechanistic approach allowed us to explore how important factors such as refuge availability and foraging strategy under fear affect prey community metrics. Fear of predators affected prey space use, such as home range formation. These adaptations had broader consequences for the community leading to changes in community structure and composition. The strength of community responses to perceived predation risk was driven by refuge availability in the landscape and the foraging strategy of prey animals. Low refuge availability in the landscape strongly decreased diversity and total biomass of prey communities. Additionally, body mass distributions in prey communities facing high predation risk were shifted towards small prey animals. With increasing refuge availability the consequences of non-consumptive predator effects were reduced, diversity and total biomass of the prey community increased. Prey foraging strategies affected community composition. Under medium refuge availability, risk-averse prey communities consisted of many small animals while risk-taking prey communities showed a more even body mass distribution. Our findings reveal that non-consumptive predator effects can have important implications for prey community diversity and should therefore be considered in the context of conservation and nature management.}, language = {en} } @article{LiAbdulkadirSchattenbergetal.2022, author = {Li, Shuang and Abdulkadir, Nafi'u and Schattenberg, Florian and da Rocha, Ulisses Nunes and Grimm, Volker and M{\"u}ller, Susann and Liu, Zishu}, title = {Stabilizing microbial communities by looped mass transfer}, series = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America : PNAS}, volume = {119}, journal = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America : PNAS}, number = {17}, publisher = {National Acad. of Sciences}, address = {Washington}, issn = {0027-8424}, doi = {10.1073/pnas.2117814119}, pages = {11}, year = {2022}, abstract = {Building and changing a microbiome at will and maintaining it over hundreds of generations has so far proven challenging. Despite best efforts, complex microbiomes appear to be susceptible to large stochastic fluctuations. Current capabilities to assemble and control stable complex microbiomes are limited. Here, we propose a looped mass transfer design that stabilizes microbiomes over long periods of time. Five local microbiomes were continuously grown in parallel for over 114 generations and connected by a loop to a regional pool. Mass transfer rates were altered and microbiome dynamics were monitored using quantitative high-throughput flow cytometry and taxonomic sequencing of whole communities and sorted subcommunities. Increased mass transfer rates reduced local and temporal variation in microbiome assembly, did not affect functions, and overcame stochasticity, with all microbiomes exhibiting high constancy and increasing resistance. Mass transfer synchronized the structures of the five local microbiomes and nestedness of certain cell types was eminent. Mass transfer increased cell number and thus decreased net growth rates mu'. Subsets of cells that did not show net growth mu'SCx were rescued by the regional pool R and thus remained part of the microbiome. The loop in mass transfer ensured the survival of cells that would otherwise go extinct, even if they did not grow in all local microbiomes or grew more slowly than the actual dilution rate D would allow. The rescue effect, known from metacommunity theory, was the main stabilizing mechanism leading to synchrony and survival of subcommunities, despite differences in cell physiological properties, including growth rates.}, language = {en} } @misc{KowalskiGrimmHerdeetal.2019, author = {Kowalski, Gabriele Joanna and Grimm, Volker and Herde, Antje and Guenther, Anja and Eccard, Jana}, title = {Does Animal Personality Affect Movement in Habitat Corridors?}, series = {Postprints der Universit{\"a}t Potsdam Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe}, journal = {Postprints der Universit{\"a}t Potsdam Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe}, number = {747}, issn = {1866-8372}, doi = {10.25932/publishup-43577}, url = {http://nbn-resolving.de/urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-435770}, pages = {17}, year = {2019}, abstract = {Animal personality may affect an animal's mobility in a given landscape, influencing its propensity to take risks in an unknown environment. We investigated the mobility of translocated common voles in two corridor systems 60 m in length and differing in width (1 m and 3 m). Voles were behaviorally phenotyped in repeated open field and barrier tests. Observed behavioral traits were highly repeatable and described by a continuous personality score. Subsequently, animals were tracked via an automated very high frequency (VHF) telemetry radio tracking system to monitor their movement patterns in the corridor system. Although personality did not explain movement patterns, corridor width determined the amount of time spent in the habitat corridor. Voles in the narrow corridor system entered the corridor faster and spent less time in the corridor than animals in the wide corridor. Thus, landscape features seem to affect movement patterns more strongly than personality. Meanwhile, site characteristics, such as corridor width, could prove to be highly important when designing corridors for conservation, with narrow corridors facilitating faster movement through landscapes than wider corridors.}, language = {en} } @article{JeltschBlaumBroseetal.2013, author = {Jeltsch, Florian and Blaum, Niels and Brose, Ulrich and Chipperfield, Joseph D. and Clough, Yann and Farwig, Nina and Geissler, Katja and Graham, Catherine H. and Grimm, Volker and Hickler, Thomas and Huth, Andreas and May, Felix and Meyer, Katrin M. and Pagel, J{\"o}rn and Reineking, Bj{\"o}rn and Rillig, Matthias C. and Shea, Katriona and Schurr, Frank Martin and Schroeder, Boris and Tielb{\"o}rger, Katja and Weiss, Lina and Wiegand, Kerstin and Wiegand, Thorsten and Wirth, Christian and Zurell, Damaris}, title = {How can we bring together empiricists and modellers in functional biodiversity research?}, series = {Basic and applied ecology : Journal of the Gesellschaft f{\"u}r {\"O}kologie}, volume = {14}, journal = {Basic and applied ecology : Journal of the Gesellschaft f{\"u}r {\"O}kologie}, number = {2}, publisher = {Elsevier}, address = {Jena}, issn = {1439-1791}, doi = {10.1016/j.baae.2013.01.001}, pages = {93 -- 101}, year = {2013}, abstract = {Improving our understanding of biodiversity and ecosystem functioning and our capacity to inform ecosystem management requires an integrated framework for functional biodiversity research (FBR). However, adequate integration among empirical approaches (monitoring and experimental) and modelling has rarely been achieved in FBR. We offer an appraisal of the issues involved and chart a course towards enhanced integration. A major element of this path is the joint orientation towards the continuous refinement of a theoretical framework for FBR that links theory testing and generalization with applied research oriented towards the conservation of biodiversity and ecosystem functioning. We further emphasize existing decision-making frameworks as suitable instruments to practically merge these different aims of FBR and bring them into application. This integrated framework requires joint research planning, and should improve communication and stimulate collaboration between modellers and empiricists, thereby overcoming existing reservations and prejudices. The implementation of this integrative research agenda for FBR requires an adaptation in most national and international funding schemes in order to accommodate such joint teams and their more complex structures and data needs.}, language = {en} } @article{LeinsGrimmDrechsler2022, author = {Leins, Johannes A. and Grimm, Volker and Drechsler, Martin}, title = {Large-scale PVA modeling of insects in cultivated grasslands}, series = {Ecology and evolution}, volume = {12}, journal = {Ecology and evolution}, number = {7}, publisher = {Wiley}, address = {Hoboken}, issn = {2045-7758}, doi = {10.1002/ece3.9063}, pages = {17}, year = {2022}, abstract = {In many species, dispersal is decisive for survival in a changing climate. Simulation models for population dynamics under climate change thus need to account for this factor. Moreover, large numbers of species inhabiting agricultural landscapes are subject to disturbances induced by human land use. We included dispersal in the HiLEG model that we previously developed to study the interaction between climate change and agricultural land use in single populations. Here, the model was parameterized for the large marsh grasshopper (LMG) in cultivated grasslands of North Germany to analyze (1) the species development and dispersal success depending on the severity of climate change in subregions, (2) the additional effect of grassland cover on dispersal success, and (3) the role of dispersal in compensating for detrimental grassland mowing. Our model simulated population dynamics in 60-year periods (2020-2079) on a fine temporal (daily) and high spatial (250 x 250 m(2)) scale in 107 subregions, altogether encompassing a range of different grassland cover, climate change projections, and mowing schedules. We show that climate change alone would allow the LMG to thrive and expand, while grassland cover played a minor role. Some mowing schedules that were harmful to the LMG nevertheless allowed the species to moderately expand its range. Especially under minor climate change, in many subregions dispersal allowed for mowing early in the year, which is economically beneficial for farmers. More severe climate change could facilitate LMG expansion to uninhabited regions but would require suitable mowing schedules along the path. These insights can be transferred to other species, given that the LMG is considered a representative of grassland communities. For more specific predictions on the dynamics of other species affected by climate change and land use, the publicly available HiLEG model can be easily adapted to the characteristics of their life cycle.}, language = {en} } @misc{WeiseAugeBaessleretal.2020, author = {Weise, Hanna and Auge, Harald and Baessler, Cornelia and B{\"a}rlund, Ilona and Bennett, Elena M. and Berger, Uta and Bohn, Friedrich and Bonn, Aletta and Borchardt, Dietrich and Brand, Fridolin and Jeltsch, Florian and Joshi, Jasmin Radha and Grimm, Volker}, title = {Resilience trinity}, series = {Zweitver{\"o}ffentlichungen der Universit{\"a}t Potsdam : Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe}, journal = {Zweitver{\"o}ffentlichungen der Universit{\"a}t Potsdam : Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe}, number = {4}, issn = {1866-8372}, doi = {10.25932/publishup-51528}, url = {http://nbn-resolving.de/urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-515284}, pages = {14}, year = {2020}, abstract = {Ensuring ecosystem resilience is an intuitive approach to safeguard the functioning of ecosystems and hence the future provisioning of ecosystem services (ES). However, resilience is a multi-faceted concept that is difficult to operationalize. Focusing on resilience mechanisms, such as diversity, network architectures or adaptive capacity, has recently been suggested as means to operationalize resilience. Still, the focus on mechanisms is not specific enough. We suggest a conceptual framework, resilience trinity, to facilitate management based on resilience mechanisms in three distinctive decision contexts and time-horizons: 1) reactive, when there is an imminent threat to ES resilience and a high pressure to act, 2) adjustive, when the threat is known in general but there is still time to adapt management and 3) provident, when time horizons are very long and the nature of the threats is uncertain, leading to a low willingness to act. Resilience has different interpretations and implications at these different time horizons, which also prevail in different disciplines. Social ecology, ecology and engineering are often implicitly focussing on provident, adjustive or reactive resilience, respectively, but these different notions of resilience and their corresponding social, ecological and economic tradeoffs need to be reconciled. Otherwise, we keep risking unintended consequences of reactive actions, or shying away from provident action because of uncertainties that cannot be reduced. The suggested trinity of time horizons and their decision contexts could help ensuring that longer-term management actions are not missed while urgent threats to ES are given priority.}, language = {en} } @article{WeiseAugeBaessleretal.2020, author = {Weise, Hanna and Auge, Harald and Baessler, Cornelia and B{\"a}rlund, Ilona and Bennett, Elena M. and Berger, Uta and Bohn, Friedrich and Bonn, Aletta and Borchardt, Dietrich and Brand, Fridolin and Jeltsch, Florian and Joshi, Jasmin Radha and Grimm, Volker}, title = {Resilience trinity}, series = {Oikos}, volume = {129}, journal = {Oikos}, number = {4}, publisher = {Wiley-Blackwell}, address = {Oxford}, issn = {0030-1299}, doi = {10.1111/oik.07213}, pages = {445 -- 456}, year = {2020}, abstract = {Ensuring ecosystem resilience is an intuitive approach to safeguard the functioning of ecosystems and hence the future provisioning of ecosystem services (ES). However, resilience is a multi-faceted concept that is difficult to operationalize. Focusing on resilience mechanisms, such as diversity, network architectures or adaptive capacity, has recently been suggested as means to operationalize resilience. Still, the focus on mechanisms is not specific enough. We suggest a conceptual framework, resilience trinity, to facilitate management based on resilience mechanisms in three distinctive decision contexts and time-horizons: 1) reactive, when there is an imminent threat to ES resilience and a high pressure to act, 2) adjustive, when the threat is known in general but there is still time to adapt management and 3) provident, when time horizons are very long and the nature of the threats is uncertain, leading to a low willingness to act. Resilience has different interpretations and implications at these different time horizons, which also prevail in different disciplines. Social ecology, ecology and engineering are often implicitly focussing on provident, adjustive or reactive resilience, respectively, but these different notions of resilience and their corresponding social, ecological and economic tradeoffs need to be reconciled. Otherwise, we keep risking unintended consequences of reactive actions, or shying away from provident action because of uncertainties that cannot be reduced. The suggested trinity of time horizons and their decision contexts could help ensuring that longer-term management actions are not missed while urgent threats to ES are given priority.}, language = {en} } @article{MillesDammhahnJeltschetal.2022, author = {Milles, Alexander Benedikt and Dammhahn, Melanie and Jeltsch, Florian and Schl{\"a}gel, Ulrike and Grimm, Volker}, title = {Fluctuations in density-dependent selection drive the evolution of a pace-of-life syndrome within and between populations}, series = {The American naturalist : a bi-monthly journal devoted to the advancement and correlation of the biological sciences}, volume = {199}, journal = {The American naturalist : a bi-monthly journal devoted to the advancement and correlation of the biological sciences}, number = {4}, publisher = {Univ. of Chicago Press}, address = {Chicago}, issn = {0003-0147}, doi = {10.1086/718473}, pages = {E124 -- E139}, year = {2022}, abstract = {The pace-of-life syndrome (POLS) hypothesis posits that suites of traits are correlated along a slow-fast continuum owing to life history trade-offs. Despite widespread adoption, environmental conditions driving the emergence of POLS remain unclear. A recently proposed conceptual framework of POLS suggests that a slow-fast continuum should align to fluctuations in density-dependent selection. We tested three key predictions made by this framework with an ecoevolutionary agent-based population model. Selection acted on responsiveness (behavioral trait) to interpatch resource differences and the reproductive investment threshold (life history trait). Across environments with density fluctuations of different magnitudes, we observed the emergence of a common axis of trait covariation between and within populations (i.e., the evolution of a POLS). Slow-type (fast-type) populations with high (low) responsiveness and low (high) reproductive investment threshold were selected at high (low) population densities and less (more) intense and frequent density fluctuations. In support of the predictions, fast-type populations contained a higher degree of variation in traits and were associated with higher intrinsic reproductive rate (r(0)) and higher sensitivity to intraspecific competition (gamma), pointing to a universal trade-off. While our findings support that POLS aligns with density-dependent selection, we discuss possible mechanisms that may lead to alternative evolutionary pathways.}, language = {en} } @misc{HornBecherJohstetal.2020, author = {Horn, Juliane and Becher, Matthias A. and Johst, Karin and Kennedy, Peter J. and Osborne, Juliet L. and Radchuk, Viktoriia and Grimm, Volker}, title = {Honey bee colony performance affected by crop diversity and farmland structure}, series = {Zweitver{\"o}ffentlichungen der Universit{\"a}t Potsdam : Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe}, journal = {Zweitver{\"o}ffentlichungen der Universit{\"a}t Potsdam : Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe}, number = {1}, issn = {1866-8372}, doi = {10.25932/publishup-55694}, url = {http://nbn-resolving.de/urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-556943}, pages = {24}, year = {2020}, abstract = {Forage availability has been suggested as one driver of the observed decline in honey bees. However, little is known about the effects of its spatiotemporal variation on colony success. We present a modeling framework for assessing honey bee colony viability in cropping systems. Based on two real farmland structures, we developed a landscape generator to design cropping systems varying in crop species identity, diversity, and relative abundance. The landscape scenarios generated were evaluated using the existing honey bee colony model BEEHAVE, which links foraging to in-hive dynamics. We thereby explored how different cropping systems determine spatiotemporal forage availability and, in turn, honey bee colony viability (e.g., time to extinction, TTE) and resilience (indicated by, e.g., brood mortality). To assess overall colony viability, we developed metrics,P(H)andP(P,)which quantified how much nectar and pollen provided by a cropping system per year was converted into a colony's adult worker population. Both crop species identity and diversity determined the temporal continuity in nectar and pollen supply and thus colony viability. Overall farmland structure and relative crop abundance were less important, but details mattered. For monocultures and for four-crop species systems composed of cereals, oilseed rape, maize, and sunflower,P(H)andP(P)were below the viability threshold. Such cropping systems showed frequent, badly timed, and prolonged forage gaps leading to detrimental cascading effects on life stages and in-hive work force, which critically reduced colony resilience. Four-crop systems composed of rye-grass-dandelion pasture, trefoil-grass pasture, sunflower, and phacelia ensured continuous nectar and pollen supply resulting in TTE > 5 yr, andP(H)(269.5 kg) andP(P)(108 kg) being above viability thresholds for 5 yr. Overall, trefoil-grass pasture, oilseed rape, buckwheat, and phacelia improved the temporal continuity in forage supply and colony's viability. Our results are hypothetical as they are obtained from simplified landscape settings, but they nevertheless match empirical observations, in particular the viability threshold. Our framework can be used to assess the effects of cropping systems on honey bee viability and to develop land-use strategies that help maintain pollination services by avoiding prolonged and badly timed forage gaps.}, language = {en} } @article{HornBecherJohstetal.2020, author = {Horn, Juliane and Becher, Matthias A. and Johst, Karin and Kennedy, Peter J. and Osborne, Juliet L. and Radchuk, Viktoriia and Grimm, Volker}, title = {Honey bee colony performance affected by crop diversity and farmland structure}, series = {Ecological applications}, volume = {31}, journal = {Ecological applications}, number = {1}, publisher = {Wiley Periodicals LLC}, address = {Washington DC}, issn = {1939-5582}, doi = {10.1002/eap.2216}, pages = {1 -- 22}, year = {2020}, abstract = {Forage availability has been suggested as one driver of the observed decline in honey bees. However, little is known about the effects of its spatiotemporal variation on colony success. We present a modeling framework for assessing honey bee colony viability in cropping systems. Based on two real farmland structures, we developed a landscape generator to design cropping systems varying in crop species identity, diversity, and relative abundance. The landscape scenarios generated were evaluated using the existing honey bee colony model BEEHAVE, which links foraging to in-hive dynamics. We thereby explored how different cropping systems determine spatiotemporal forage availability and, in turn, honey bee colony viability (e.g., time to extinction, TTE) and resilience (indicated by, e.g., brood mortality). To assess overall colony viability, we developed metrics,P(H)andP(P,)which quantified how much nectar and pollen provided by a cropping system per year was converted into a colony's adult worker population. Both crop species identity and diversity determined the temporal continuity in nectar and pollen supply and thus colony viability. Overall farmland structure and relative crop abundance were less important, but details mattered. For monocultures and for four-crop species systems composed of cereals, oilseed rape, maize, and sunflower,P(H)andP(P)were below the viability threshold. Such cropping systems showed frequent, badly timed, and prolonged forage gaps leading to detrimental cascading effects on life stages and in-hive work force, which critically reduced colony resilience. Four-crop systems composed of rye-grass-dandelion pasture, trefoil-grass pasture, sunflower, and phacelia ensured continuous nectar and pollen supply resulting in TTE > 5 yr, andP(H)(269.5 kg) andP(P)(108 kg) being above viability thresholds for 5 yr. Overall, trefoil-grass pasture, oilseed rape, buckwheat, and phacelia improved the temporal continuity in forage supply and colony's viability. Our results are hypothetical as they are obtained from simplified landscape settings, but they nevertheless match empirical observations, in particular the viability threshold. Our framework can be used to assess the effects of cropping systems on honey bee viability and to develop land-use strategies that help maintain pollination services by avoiding prolonged and badly timed forage gaps.}, language = {en} } @article{RadchukJohstGroeneveldetal.2013, author = {Radchuk, Viktoriia and Johst, Karin and Gr{\"o}neveld, Juergen and Grimm, Volker and Schtickzelle, Nicolas}, title = {Behind the scenes of population viability modeling predicting butterfly metapopulation dynamics under climate change}, series = {Ecological modelling : international journal on ecological modelling and engineering and systems ecolog}, volume = {259}, journal = {Ecological modelling : international journal on ecological modelling and engineering and systems ecolog}, number = {2}, publisher = {Elsevier}, address = {Amsterdam}, issn = {0304-3800}, doi = {10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2013.03.014}, pages = {62 -- 73}, year = {2013}, abstract = {Studies explaining the choice of model structure for population viability analysis (PVA) are rare and no such study exists for butterfly species, a focal group for conservation. Here, we describe in detail the development of a model to predict population viability of a glacial relict butterfly species, Boloria eunomia, under climate change. We compared four alternative formulations of an individual-based model, differing in the environmental factors acting on the survival of immature life stages: temperature (only temperature impact), weather (temperature, precipitation, and sunshine), temperature and parasitism, and weather and parasitism. Following pattern-oriented modeling, four observed patterns were used to contrast these models: one qualitative (response of population size to habitat parameters) and three quantitative ones describing population dynamics during eight years (mean and variability of population size, and magnitude of the temporal autocorrelation in yearly population growth rates). The four model formulations were not equally able to depict population dynamics under current environmental conditions; the model including only temperature was selected as the most parsimonious model sufficiently well reproducing the empirical patterns. We used all four model formulations to test a range of climate change scenarios that were characterized by changes in both mean and variability of the weather variables. All models predicted adverse effects of climate change and resulted in the same ranking of mean climate change scenarios. However, models differed in their absolute values of population viability measures, underlining the need to explicitly choose the most appropriate model formulation and avoid arbitrary usage of environmental drivers in a model. We conclude that further applications of pattern-oriented modeling to butterfly and other species are likely to help in identifying the key factors impacting the viability of certain taxa, which, ultimately, will aid and speed up informed management decisions for endangered species under climate change.}, language = {en} } @article{GrimmAugusiakFocksetal.2014, author = {Grimm, Volker and Augusiak, Jacqueline and Focks, Andreas and Frank, Beatrice M. and Gabsi, Faten and Johnston, Alice S. A. and Liu, Chun and Martin, Benjamin T. and Meli, Mattia and Radchuk, Viktoriia and Thorbek, Pernille and Railsback, Steven Floyd}, title = {Towards better modelling and decision support: Documenting model development, testing, and analysis using TRACE}, series = {Ecological modelling : international journal on ecological modelling and engineering and systems ecolog}, volume = {280}, journal = {Ecological modelling : international journal on ecological modelling and engineering and systems ecolog}, publisher = {Elsevier}, address = {Amsterdam}, issn = {0304-3800}, doi = {10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2014.01.018}, pages = {129 -- 139}, year = {2014}, abstract = {The potential of ecological models for supporting environmental decision making is increasingly acknowledged. However, it often remains unclear whether a model is realistic and reliable enough. Good practice for developing and testing ecological models has not yet been established. Therefore, TRACE, a general framework for documenting a model's rationale, design, and testing was recently suggested. Originally TRACE was aimed at documenting good modelling practice. However, the word 'documentation' does not convey TRACE's urgency. Therefore, we re-define TRACE as a tool for planning, performing, and documenting good modelling practice. TRACE documents should provide convincing evidence that a model was thoughtfully designed, correctly implemented, thoroughly tested, well understood, and appropriately used for its intended purpose. TRACE documents link the science underlying a model to its application, thereby also linking modellers and model users, for example stakeholders, decision makers, and developers of policies. We report on first experiences in producing TRACE documents. We found that the original idea underlying TRACE was valid, but to make its use more coherent and efficient, an update of its structure and more specific guidance for its use are needed. The updated TRACE format follows the recently developed framework of model 'evaludation': the entire process of establishing model quality and credibility throughout all stages of model development, analysis, and application. TRACE thus becomes a tool for planning, documenting, and assessing model evaludation, which includes understanding the rationale behind a model and its envisaged use. We introduce the new structure and revised terminology of TRACE and provide examples. (C) 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.}, language = {en} } @article{RadchukJohstGroeneveldetal.2014, author = {Radchuk, Viktoriia and Johst, Karin and Groeneveld, J{\"u}rgen and Turlure, Camille and Grimm, Volker and Schtickzelle, Nicolas}, title = {Appropriate resolution in time and model structure for population viability analysis: Insights from a butterfly metapopulation}, series = {: an international journal}, volume = {169}, journal = {: an international journal}, publisher = {Elsevier}, address = {Oxford}, issn = {0006-3207}, doi = {10.1016/j.biocon.2013.12.004}, pages = {345 -- 354}, year = {2014}, abstract = {The importance of a careful choice of the appropriate scale for studying ecological phenomena has been stressed repeatedly. However, issues of spatial scale in metapopulation dynamics received much more attention compared to temporal scale. Moreover, multiple calls were made to carefully choose the appropriate model structure for Population Viability Analysis (PVA). We assessed the effect of using coarser resolution in time and model structure on population dynamics. For this purpose, we compared outcomes of two PVA models differing in their time step: daily individual-based model (dIBM) and yearly stage-based model (ySBM), loaded with empirical data on a well-known metapopulation of the butterfly Boloria eunomia. Both models included the same environmental drivers of population dynamics that were previously identified as being the most important for this species. Under temperature change scenarios, both models yielded the same qualitative scenario ranking, but they quite substantially differed quantitatively with dIBM being more pessimistic in absolute viability measures. We showed that these differences stemmed from inter-individual heterogeneity in dIBM allowing for phenological shifts of individual appearance. We conclude that a finer temporal resolution and an individual-based model structure allow capturing the essential mechanisms necessary to go beyond mere PVA scenario ranking. We encourage researchers to carefully chose the temporal resolution and structure of their model aiming at (1) depicting the processes important for (meta)population dynamics of the species and (2) implementing the environmental change scenarios expected for their study system in the future, using the temporal resolution at which such changes are predicted to operate.}, language = {en} } @article{RadchukOppelGroeneveldetal.2016, author = {Radchuk, Viktoriia and Oppel, Steffen and Groeneveld, Juergen and Grimm, Volker and Schtickzelle, Nicolas}, title = {Simple or complex: Relative impact of data availability and model purpose on the choice of model types for population viability analyses}, series = {Ecological modelling : international journal on ecological modelling and engineering and systems ecolog}, volume = {323}, journal = {Ecological modelling : international journal on ecological modelling and engineering and systems ecolog}, publisher = {Elsevier}, address = {Amsterdam}, issn = {0304-3800}, doi = {10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2015.11.022}, pages = {87 -- 95}, year = {2016}, abstract = {Population viability analysis (PVA) models are used to estimate population extinction risk under different scenarios. Both simple and complex PVA models are developed and have their specific pros and cons; the question therefore arises whether we always use the most appropriate model type. Generally, the specific purpose of a model and the availability of data are listed as determining the choice of model type, but this has not been formally tested yet. We quantified the relative importance of model purpose and nine metrics of data availability and resolution for the choice of a PVA model type, while controlling for effects of the different life histories of the modelled species. We evaluated 37 model pairs: each consisting of a generally simpler, population-based model (PBM) and a more complex, individual-based model (IBM) developed for the same species. The choice of model type was primarily affected by the availability and resolution of demographic, dispersal and spatial data. Low-resolution data resulted in the development of less complex models. Model purpose did not affect the choice of the model type. We confirm the general assumption that poor data availability is the main reason for the wide use of simpler models, which may have limited predictive power for population responses to changing environmental conditions. Conservation biology is a crisis discipline where researchers learned to work with the data at hand. However, for threatened and poorly-known species, there is no short-cut when developing either a PBM or an IBM: investments to collect appropriately detailed data are required to ensure PVA models can assess extinction risk under complex environmental conditions. (C) 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.}, language = {en} } @article{LeinsBanitzGrimmetal.2020, author = {Leins, Johannes A. and Banitz, Thomas and Grimm, Volker and Drechsler, Martin}, title = {High-resolution PVA along large environmental gradients to model the combined effects of climate change and land use timing}, series = {Ecological modelling : international journal on ecological modelling and systems ecology}, volume = {440}, journal = {Ecological modelling : international journal on ecological modelling and systems ecology}, publisher = {Elsevier}, address = {Amsterdam}, issn = {0304-3800}, doi = {10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2020.109355}, pages = {15}, year = {2020}, abstract = {Both climate change and land use regimes affect the viability of populations, but they are often studied separately. Moreover, population viability analyses (PVAs) often ignore the effects of large environmental gradients and use temporal resolutions that are too coarse to take into account that different stages of a population's life cycle may be affected differently by climate change. Here, we present the High-resolution Large Environmental Gradient (HiLEG) model and apply it in a PVA with daily resolution based on daily climate projections for Northwest Germany. We used the large marsh grasshopper (LMG) as the target species and investigated (1) the effects of climate change on the viability and spatial distribution of the species, (2) the influence of the timing of grassland mowing on the species and (3) the interaction between the effects of climate change and grassland mowing. The stageand cohort-based model was run for the spatially differentiated environmental conditions temperature and soil moisture across the whole study region. We implemented three climate change scenarios and analyzed the population dynamics for four consecutive 20-year periods. Climate change alone would lead to an expansion of the regions suitable for the LMG, as warming accelerates development and due to reduced drought stress. However, in combination with land use, the timing of mowing was crucial, as this disturbance causes a high mortality rate in the aboveground life stages. Assuming the same date of mowing throughout the region, the impact on viability varied greatly between regions due to the different climate conditions. The regional negative effects of the mowing date can be divided into five phases: (1) In early spring, the populations were largely unaffected in all the regions; (2) between late spring and early summer, they were severely affected only in warm regions; (3) in summer, all the populations were severely affected so that they could hardly survive; (4) between late summer and early autumn, they were severely affected in cold regions; and (5) in autumn, the populations were equally affected across all regions. The duration and start of each phase differed slightly depending on the climate change scenario and simulation period, but overall, they showed the same pattern. Our model can be used to identify regions of concern and devise management recommendations. The model can be adapted to the life cycle of different target species, climate projections and disturbance regimes. We show with our adaption of the HiLEG model that high-resolution PVAs and applications on large environmental gradients can be reconciled to develop conservation strategies capable of dealing with multiple stressors.}, language = {en} }