@phdthesis{Chen2016,
  author    = {Chen, Kejie},
  title     = {Real-time GNSS for fast seismic source inversion and tsunami early warning},
  url       = {http://nbn-resolving.de/urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-93174},
  school      = {Universit{\"a}t Potsdam},
  pages     = {xii, 81},
  year      = {2016},
  abstract  = {Over the past decades, rapid and constant advances have motivated GNSS technology to approach the ability to monitor transient ground motions with mm to cm accuracy in real-time. As a result, the potential of using real-time GNSS for natural hazards prediction and early warning has been exploited intensively in recent years, e.g., landslides and volcanic eruptions monitoring. Of particular note, compared with traditional seismic instruments, GNSS does not saturate or tilt in terms of co-seismic displacement retrieving, which makes it especially valuable for earthquake and earthquake induced tsunami early warning. In this thesis, we focus on the application of real-time GNSS to fast seismic source inversion and tsunami early warning. Firstly, we present a new approach to get precise co-seismic displacements using cost effective single-frequency receivers. As is well known, with regard to high precision positioning, the main obstacle for single-frequency GPS receiver is ionospheric delay. Considering that over a few minutes, the change of ionospheric delay is almost linear, we constructed a linear model for each satellite to predict ionospheric delay. The effectiveness of this method has been validated by an out-door experiment and 2011 Tohoku event, which confirms feasibility of using dense GPS networks for geo-hazard early warning at an affordable cost. Secondly, we extended temporal point positioning from GPS-only to GPS/GLONASS and assessed the potential benefits of multi-GNSS for co-seismic displacement determination. Out-door experiments reveal that when observations are conducted in an adversary environment, adding a couple of GLONASS satellites could provide more reliable results. The case study of 2015 Illapel Mw 8.3 earthquake shows that the biases between co-seismic displacements derived from GPS-only and GPS/GLONASS vary from station to station, and could be up to 2 cm in horizontal direction and almost 3 cm in vertical direction. Furthermore, slips inverted from GPS/GLONASS co-seismic displacements using a layered crust structure on a curved plane are shallower and larger for the Illapel event. Thirdly, we tested different inversion tools and discussed the uncertainties of using real-time GNSS for tsunami early warning. To be exact, centroid moment tensor inversion, uniform slip inversion using a single Okada fault and distributed slip inversion in layered crust on a curved plane were conducted using co-seismic displacements recorded during 2014 Pisagua earthquake. While the inversion results give similar magnitude and the rupture center, there are significant differences in depth, strike, dip and rake angles, which lead to different tsunami propagation scenarios. Even though, resulting tsunami forecasting along the Chilean coast is close to each other for all three models. Finally, based on the fact that the positioning performance of BDS is now equivalent to GPS in Asia-Pacific area and Manila subduction zone has been identified as a zone of potential tsunami hazard, we suggested a conceptual BDS/GPS network for tsunami early warning in South China Sea. Numerical simulations with two earthquakes (Mw 8.0 and Mw 7.5) and induced tsunamis demonstrate the viability of this network. In addition, the advantage of BDS/GPS over a single GNSS system by source inversion grows with decreasing earthquake magnitudes.},
  language  = {en}
}
@phdthesis{Dannberg2016,
  author    = {Dannberg, Juliane},
  title     = {Dynamics of mantle plumes},
  url       = {http://nbn-resolving.de/urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-91024},
  school      = {Universit{\"a}t Potsdam},
  pages     = {162},
  year      = {2016},
  abstract  = {Mantle plumes are a link between different scales in the Earth's mantle: They are an important part of large-scale mantle convection, transporting material and heat from the core-mantle boundary to the surface, but also affect processes on a smaller scale, such as melt generation and transport and surface magmatism. When they reach the base of the lithosphere, they cause massive magmatism associated with the generation of large igneous provinces, and they can be related to mass extinction events (Wignall, 2001) and continental breakup (White and McKenzie, 1989). Thus, mantle plumes have been the subject of many previous numerical modelling studies (e.g. Farnetani and Richards, 1995; d'Acremont et al., 2003; Lin and van Keken, 2005; Sobolev et al., 2011; Ballmer et al., 2013). However, complex mechanisms, such as the development and implications of chemical heterogeneities in plumes, their interaction with mid-ocean ridges and global mantle flow, and melt ascent from the source region to the surface are still not very well understood; and disagreements between observations and the predictions of classical plume models have led to a challenge of the plume concept in general (Czamanske et al., 1998; Anderson, 2000; Foulger, 2011). Hence, there is a need for more sophisticated models that can explain the underlying physics, assess which properties and processes are important, explain how they cause the observations visible at the Earth's surface and provide a link between the different scales. In this work, integrated plume models are developed that investigate the effect of dense recycled oceanic crust on the development of mantle plumes, plume-ridge interaction under the influence of global mantle flow and melting and melt migration in form of two-phase flow. The presented analysis of these models leads to a new, updated picture of mantle plumes: Models considering a realistic depth-dependent density of recycled oceanic crust and peridotitic mantle material show that plumes with excess temperatures of up to 300 K can transport up to 15\% of recycled oceanic crust through the whole mantle. However, due to the high density of recycled crust, plumes can only advance to the base of the lithosphere directly if they have high excess temperatures, high plume volumes and the lowermost mantle is subadiabatic, or plumes rise from the top or edges of thermo-chemical piles. They might only cause minor surface uplift, and instead of the classical head-tail structure, these low-buoyancy plumes are predicted to be broad features in the lower mantle with much less pronounced plume heads. They can form a variety of shapes and regimes, including primary plumes directly advancing to the base of the lithosphere, stagnating plumes, secondary plumes rising from the core-mantle boundary or a pool of eclogitic material in the upper mantle and failing plumes. In the upper mantle, plumes are tilted and deflected by global mantle flow, and the shape, size and stability of the melting region is influenced by the distance from nearby plate boundaries, the speed of the overlying plate and the movement of the plume tail arriving from the lower mantle. Furthermore, the structure of the lithosphere controls where hot material is accumulated and melt is generated. In addition to melting in the plume tail at the plume arrival position, hot plume material flows upwards towards opening rifts, towards mid-ocean ridges and towards other regions of thinner lithosphere, where it produces additional melt due to decompression. This leads to the generation of either broad ridges of thickened magmatic crust or the separation into multiple thinner lines of sea mount chains at the surface. Once melt is generated within the plume, it influences its dynamics, lowering the viscosity and density, and while it rises the melt volume is increased up to 20\% due to decompression. Melt has the tendency to accumulate at the top of the plume head, forming diapirs and initiating small-scale convection when the plume reaches the base of the lithosphere. Together with the introduced unstable, high-density material produced by freezing of melt, this provides an efficient mechanism to thin the lithosphere above plume heads. In summary, this thesis shows that mantle plumes are more complex than previously considered, and linking the scales and coupling the physics of different processes occurring in mantle plumes can provide insights into how mantle plumes are influenced by chemical heterogeneities, interact with the lithosphere and global mantle flow, and are affected by melting and melt migration. Including these complexities in geodynamic models shows that plumes can also have broad plume tails, might produce only negligible surface uplift, can generate one or several volcanic island chains in interaction with a mid-ocean ridge, and can magmatically thin the lithosphere.},
  language  = {en}
}
@phdthesis{Falter2016,
  author    = {Falter, Daniela},
  title     = {A novel approach for large-scale flood risk assessments},
  url       = {http://nbn-resolving.de/urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-90239},
  school      = {Universit{\"a}t Potsdam},
  pages     = {95},
  year      = {2016},
  abstract  = {In the past, floods were basically managed by flood control mechanisms. The focus was set on the reduction of flood hazard. The potential consequences were of minor interest. Nowadays river flooding is increasingly seen from the risk perspective, including possible consequences. Moreover, the large-scale picture of flood risk became increasingly important for disaster management planning, national risk developments and the (re-) insurance industry. Therefore, it is widely accepted that risk-orientated flood management ap-proaches at the basin-scale are needed. However, large-scale flood risk assessment methods for areas of several 10,000 km² are still in early stages. Traditional flood risk assessments are performed reach wise, assuming constant probabilities for the entire reach or basin. This might be helpful on a local basis, but where large-scale patterns are important this approach is of limited use. Assuming a T-year flood (e.g. 100 years) for the entire river network is unrealistic and would lead to an overestimation of flood risk at the large scale. Due to the lack of damage data, additionally, the probability of peak discharge or rainfall is usually used as proxy for damage probability to derive flood risk. With a continuous and long term simulation of the entire flood risk chain, the spatial variability of probabilities could be consider and flood risk could be directly derived from damage data in a consistent way. The objective of this study is the development and application of a full flood risk chain, appropriate for the large scale and based on long term and continuous simulation. The novel approach of 'derived flood risk based on continuous simulations' is introduced, where the synthetic discharge time series is used as input into flood impact models and flood risk is directly derived from the resulting synthetic damage time series. The bottleneck at this scale is the hydrodynamic simu-lation. To find suitable hydrodynamic approaches for the large-scale a benchmark study with simplified 2D hydrodynamic models was performed. A raster-based approach with inertia formulation and a relatively high resolution of 100 m in combination with a fast 1D channel routing model was chosen. To investigate the suitability of the continuous simulation of a full flood risk chain for the large scale, all model parts were integrated into a new framework, the Regional Flood Model (RFM). RFM consists of the hydrological model SWIM, a 1D hydrodynamic river network model, a 2D raster based inundation model and the flood loss model FELMOps+r. Subsequently, the model chain was applied to the Elbe catchment, one of the largest catchments in Germany. For the proof-of-concept, a continuous simulation was per-formed for the period of 1990-2003. Results were evaluated / validated as far as possible with available observed data in this period. Although each model part introduced its own uncertainties, results and runtime were generally found to be adequate for the purpose of continuous simulation at the large catchment scale. Finally, RFM was applied to a meso-scale catchment in the east of Germany to firstly perform a flood risk assessment with the novel approach of 'derived flood risk assessment based on continuous simulations'. Therefore, RFM was driven by long term synthetic meteorological input data generated by a weather generator. Thereby, a virtual time series of climate data of 100 x 100 years was generated and served as input to RFM providing subsequent 100 x 100 years of spatially consistent river discharge series, inundation patterns and damage values. On this basis, flood risk curves and expected annual damage could be derived directly from damage data, providing a large-scale picture of flood risk. In contrast to traditional flood risk analysis, where homogenous return periods are assumed for the entire basin, the presented approach provides a coherent large-scale picture of flood risk. The spatial variability of occurrence probability is respected. Additionally, data and methods are consistent. Catchment and floodplain processes are repre-sented in a holistic way. Antecedent catchment conditions are implicitly taken into account, as well as physical processes like storage effects, flood attenuation or channel-floodplain interactions and related damage influencing effects. Finally, the simulation of a virtual period of 100 x 100 years and consequently large data set on flood loss events enabled the calculation of flood risk directly from damage distributions. Problems associated with the transfer of probabilities in rainfall or peak runoff to probabilities in damage, as often used in traditional approaches, are bypassed. RFM and the 'derived flood risk approach based on continuous simulations' has the potential to provide flood risk statements for national planning, re-insurance aspects or other questions where spatially consistent, large-scale assessments are required.},
  language  = {en}
}
@phdthesis{Schintgen2016,
  author    = {Schintgen, Tom Vincent},
  title     = {The geothermal potential of Luxembourg},
  url       = {http://nbn-resolving.de/urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-87110},
  school      = {Universit{\"a}t Potsdam},
  pages     = {XXII, 313},
  year      = {2016},
  abstract  = {The aim of this work is the evaluation of the geothermal potential of Luxembourg. The approach consists in a joint interpretation of different types of information necessary for a first rather qualitative assessment of deep geothermal reservoirs in Luxembourg and the adjoining regions in the surrounding countries of Belgium, France and Germany. For the identification of geothermal reservoirs by exploration, geological, thermal, hydrogeological and structural data are necessary. Until recently, however, reliable information about the thermal field and the regional geology, and thus about potential geothermal reservoirs, was lacking. Before a proper evaluation of the geothermal potential can be performed, a comprehensive survey of the geology and an assessment of the thermal field are required. As a first step, the geology and basin structure of the Mesozoic Trier-Luxembourg Basin (TLB) is reviewed and updated using recently published information on the geology and structures as well as borehole data available in Luxembourg and the adjoining regions. A Bouguer map is used to get insight in the depth, morphology and structures in the Variscan basement buried beneath the Trier-Luxembourg Basin. The geological section of the old Cessange borehole is reinterpreted and provides, in combination with the available borehole data, consistent information for the production of isopach maps. The latter visualize the synsedimentary evolution of the Trier-Luxembourg Basin. Complementary, basin-wide cross sections illustrate the evolution and structure of the Trier-Luxembourg Basin. The knowledge gained does not support the old concept of the Weilerbach Mulde. The basin-wide cross sections, as well as the structural and sedimentological observations in the Trier-Luxembourg Basin suggest that the latter probably formed above a zone of weakness related to a buried Rotliegend graben. The inferred graben structure designated by SE-Luxembourg Graben (SELG) is located in direct southwestern continuation of the Wittlicher Rotliegend-Senke. The lack of deep boreholes and subsurface temperature prognosis at depth is circumnavigated by using thermal modelling for inferring the geothermal resource at depth. For this approach, profound structural, geological and petrophysical input data are required. Conceptual geological cross sections encompassing the entire crust are constructed and further simplified and extended to lithospheric scale for their utilization as thermal models. The 2-D steady state and conductive models are parameterized by means of measured petrophysical properties including thermal conductivity, radiogenic heat production and density. A surface heat flow of 75 ∓ 7 (2δ) mW m-2 for verification of the thermal models could be determined in the area. The models are further constrained by the geophysically-estimated depth of the lithosphere-asthenosphere boundary (LAB) defined by the 1300 °C isotherm. A LAB depth of 100 km, as seismically derived for the Ardennes, provides the best fit with the measured surface heat flow. The resulting mantle heat flow amounts to ∼40 mW m-2. Modelled temperatures are in the range of 120-125 °C at 5 km depth and of 600-650 °C at the crust/mantle discontinuity (Moho). Possible thermal consequences of the 10-20 Ma old Eifel plume, which apparently caused upwelling of the asthenospheric mantle to 50-60 km depth, were modelled in a steady-state thermal scenario resulting in a surface heat flow of at least 91 mW m-2 (for the plume top at 60 km) in the Eifel region. Available surface heat-flow values are significantly lower (65-80 mW m-2) and indicate that the plume-related heating has not yet entirely reached the surface. Once conceptual geological models are established and the thermal regime is assessed, the geothermal potential of Luxembourg and the surrounding areas is evaluated by additional consideration of the hydrogeology, the stress field and tectonically active regions. On the one hand, low-enthalpy hydrothermal reservoirs in Mesozoic reservoirs in the Trier-Luxembourg Embayment (TLE) are considered. On the other hand, petrothermal reservoirs in the Lower Devonian basement of the Ardennes and Eifel regions are considered for exploitation by Enhanced/Engineered Geothermal Systems (EGS). Among the Mesozoic aquifers, the Buntsandstein aquifer characterized by temperatures of up to 50 °C is a suitable hydrothermal reservoir that may be exploited by means of heat pumps or provide direct heat for various applications. The most promising area is the zone of the SE-Luxembourg Graben. The aquifer is warmest underneath the upper Alzette River valley and the limestone plateau in Lorraine, where the Buntsandstein aquifer lies below a thick Mesozoic cover. At the base of an inferred Rotliegend graben in the same area, temperatures of up to 75 °C are expected. However, geological and hydraulic conditions are uncertain. In the Lower Devonian basement, thick sandstone-/quartzite-rich formations with temperatures >90 °C are expected at depths >3.5 km and likely offer the possibility of direct heat use. The setting of the S{\"u}deifel (South Eifel) region, including the M{\"u}llerthal region near Echternach, as a tectonically active zone may offer the possibility of deep hydrothermal reservoirs in the fractured Lower Devonian basement. Based on the recent findings about the structure of the Trier-Luxembourg Basin, the new concept presents the M{\"u}llerthal-S{\"u}deifel Depression (MSD) as a Cenozoic structure that remains tectonically active and subsiding, and therefore is relevant for geothermal exploration. Beyond direct use of geothermal heat, the expected modest temperatures at 5 km depth (about 120 °C) and increased permeability by EGS in the quartzite-rich Lochkovian could prospectively enable combined geothermal heat production and power generation in Luxembourg and the western realm of the Eifel region.},
  language  = {en}
}