@misc{Steiglechner2018, type = {Master Thesis}, author = {Steiglechner, Peter}, title = {Estimating global warming from anthropogenic heat emissions}, doi = {10.25932/publishup-49886}, url = {http://nbn-resolving.de/urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-498866}, school = {Universit{\"a}t Potsdam}, year = {2018}, abstract = {The forcing from the anthropogenic heat flux (AHF), i.e. the dissipation of primary energy consumed by the human civilisation, produces a direct climate warming. Today, the globally averaged AHF is negligibly small compared to the indirect forcing from greenhouse gas emissions. Locally or regionally, though, it has a significant impact. Historical observations show a constant exponential growth of worldwide energy production. A continuation of this trend might be fueled or even amplified by the exploration of new carbon-free energy sources like fusion power. In such a scenario, the impacts of the AHF become a relevant factor for anthropogenic post-greenhouse gas climate change on the global scale, as well. This master thesis aims at estimating the climate impacts of such a growing AHF forcing. In the first part of this work, the AHF is built into simple and conceptual, zero- and one-dimensional Energy Balance Models (EBMs), providing quick order of magnitude estimations of the temperature impact. In the one-dimensional EBM, the ice-albedo feedback from enhanced ice melting due to the AHF increases the temperature impact significantly compared to the zero-dimensional EBM. Additionally, the forcing is built into a climate model of intermediate complexity, CLIMBER-3α. This allows for the investigation of the effect of localised AHF and gives further insights into the impact of the AHF on processes like the ocean heat uptake, sea ice and snow pattern changes and the ocean circulation. The global mean temperature response from the AHF today is of the order of 0.010 - 0.016 K in all reasonable model configurations tested. A transient tenfold increase of this forcing heats up the Earth System additionally by roughly 0.1 - 0.2 K in the presented models. Further growth can also affect the tipping probability of certain climate elements. Most renewable energy sources do not or only partially contribute to the AHF forcing as the energy from these sources dissipates anyway. Hence, the transition to a (carbon-free) renewable energy mix, which, in particular, does not rely on nuclear power, eliminates the local and global climate impacts from the increasing AHF forcing, independent of the growth of energy production.}, language = {en} } @misc{MetinDungSchroeteretal.2018, author = {Metin, Ayse Duha and Dung, Nguyen Viet and Schr{\"o}ter, Kai and Guse, Bj{\"o}rn and Apel, Heiko and Kreibich, Heidi and Vorogushyn, Sergiy and Merz, Bruno}, title = {How do changes along the risk chain affect flood risk?}, series = {Postprints der Universit{\"a}t Potsdam : Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe}, journal = {Postprints der Universit{\"a}t Potsdam : Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe}, number = {1067}, issn = {1866-8372}, doi = {10.25932/publishup-46879}, url = {http://nbn-resolving.de/urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-468790}, pages = {22}, year = {2018}, abstract = {Flood risk is impacted by a range of physical and socio-economic processes. Hence, the quantification of flood risk ideally considers the complete flood risk chain, from atmospheric processes through catchment and river system processes to damage mechanisms in the affected areas. Although it is generally accepted that a multitude of changes along the risk chain can occur and impact flood risk, there is a lack of knowledge of how and to what extent changes in influencing factors propagate through the chain and finally affect flood risk. To fill this gap, we present a comprehensive sensitivity analysis which considers changes in all risk components, i.e. changes in climate, catchment, river system, land use, assets, and vulnerability. The application of this framework to the mesoscale Mulde catchment in Germany shows that flood risk can vary dramatically as a consequence of plausible change scenarios. It further reveals that components that have not received much attention, such as changes in dike systems or in vulnerability, may outweigh changes in often investigated components, such as climate. Although the specific results are conditional on the case study area and the selected assumptions, they emphasize the need for a broader consideration of potential drivers of change in a comprehensive way. Hence, our approach contributes to a better understanding of how the different risk components influence the overall flood risk.}, language = {en} } @misc{EppKruseKathetal.2018, author = {Epp, Laura Saskia and Kruse, Stefan and Kath, Nadja J. and Stoof-Leichsenring, Kathleen Rosemarie and Tiedemann, Ralph and Pestryakova, Luidmila Agafyevna and Herzschuh, Ulrike}, title = {Temporal and spatial patterns of mitochondrial haplotype and species distributions in Siberian larches inferred from ancient environmental DNA and modeling}, series = {Postprints der Universit{\"a}t Potsdam : Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe}, journal = {Postprints der Universit{\"a}t Potsdam : Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe}, number = {1052}, issn = {1866-8372}, doi = {10.25932/publishup-46835}, url = {http://nbn-resolving.de/urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-468352}, pages = {11}, year = {2018}, abstract = {Changes in species' distributions are classically projected based on their climate envelopes. For Siberian forests, which have a tremendous significance for vegetation-climate feedbacks, this implies future shifts of each of the forest-forming larch (Larix) species to the north-east. However, in addition to abiotic factors, reliable projections must assess the role of historical biogeography and biotic interactions. Here, we use sedimentary ancient DNA and individual-based modelling to investigate the distribution of larch species and mitochondrial haplotypes through space and time across the treeline ecotone on the southern Taymyr peninsula, which at the same time presents a boundary area of two larch species. We find spatial and temporal patterns, which suggest that forest density is the most influential driver determining the precise distribution of species and mitochondrial haplotypes. This suggests a strong influence of competition on the species' range shifts. These findings imply possible climate change outcomes that are directly opposed to projections based purely on climate envelopes. Investigations of such fine-scale processes of biodiversity change through time are possible using paleoenvironmental DNA, which is available much more readily than visible fossils and can provide information at a level of resolution that is not reached in classical palaeoecology.}, language = {en} } @misc{JongejansStraussLenzetal.2018, author = {Jongejans, Loeka L. and Strauss, Jens and Lenz, Josefine and Peterse, Francien and Mangelsdorf, Kai and Fuchs, Matthias and Grosse, Guido}, title = {Organic matter characteristics in yedoma and thermokarst deposits on Baldwin Peninsula, west Alaska}, series = {Postprints der Universit{\"a}t Potsdam : Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe}, journal = {Postprints der Universit{\"a}t Potsdam : Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe}, number = {20}, issn = {1866-8372}, doi = {10.25932/publishup-44625}, url = {http://nbn-resolving.de/urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-446250}, pages = {6033 -- 6048}, year = {2018}, abstract = {As Arctic warming continues and permafrost thaws, more soil and sedimentary organic matter (OM) will be decomposed in northern high latitudes. Still, uncertainties remain in the quality of the OM and the size of the organic carbon (OC) pools stored in different deposit types of permafrost landscapes. This study presents OM data from deep permafrost and lake deposits on the Baldwin Peninsula which is located in the southern portion of the continuous permafrost zone in west Alaska. Sediment samples from yedoma and drained thermokarst lake basin (DTLB) deposits as well as thermokarst lake sediments were analyzed for cryostratigraphical and biogeochemical parameters and their lipid biomarker composition to identify the below-ground OC pool size and OM quality of ice-rich permafrost on the Baldwin Peninsula. We provide the first detailed characterization of yedoma deposits on Baldwin Peninsula. We show that three-quarters of soil OC in the frozen deposits of the study region (total of 68 Mt) is stored in DTLB deposits (52 Mt) and one-quarter in the frozen yedoma deposits (16 Mt). The lake sediments contain a relatively small OC pool (4 Mt), but have the highest volumetric OC content (93 kgm(-3)) compared to the DTLB (35 kgm(-3)) and yedoma deposits (8 kgm(-3)), largely due to differences in the ground ice content. The biomarker analysis indicates that the OM in both yedoma and DTLB deposits is mainly of terrestrial origin. Nevertheless, the relatively high carbon preference index of plant leaf waxes in combination with a lack of a degradation trend with depth in the yedoma deposits indi-cates that OM stored in yedoma is less degraded than that stored in DTLB deposits. This suggests that OM in yedoma has a higher potential for decomposition upon thaw, despite the relatively small size of this pool. These findings show that the use of lipid biomarker analysis is valuable in the assessment of the potential future greenhouse gas emissions from thawing permafrost, especially because this area, close to the discontinuous permafrost boundary, is projected to thaw substantially within the 21st century.}, language = {en} } @misc{TrietDungMerzetal.2018, author = {Triet, Nguyen Van Khanh and Dung, Nguyen Viet and Merz, Bruno and Apel, Heiko}, title = {Towards risk-based flood management in highly productive paddy rice cultivation}, series = {Postprints der Universit{\"a}t Potsdam : Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe}, journal = {Postprints der Universit{\"a}t Potsdam : Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe}, number = {931}, issn = {1866-8372}, doi = {10.25932/publishup-44603}, url = {http://nbn-resolving.de/urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-446032}, pages = {2859 -- 2876}, year = {2018}, abstract = {Flooding is an imminent natural hazard threatening most river deltas, e.g. the Mekong Delta. An appropriate flood management is thus required for a sustainable development of the often densely populated regions. Recently, the traditional event-based hazard control shifted towards a risk management approach in many regions, driven by intensive research leading to new legal regulation on flood management. However, a large-scale flood risk assessment does not exist for the Mekong Delta. Particularly, flood risk to paddy rice cultivation, the most important economic activity in the delta, has not been performed yet. Therefore, the present study was developed to provide the very first insight into delta-scale flood damages and risks to rice cultivation. The flood hazard was quantified by probabilistic flood hazard maps of the whole delta using a bivariate extreme value statistics, synthetic flood hydrographs, and a large-scale hydraulic model. The flood risk to paddy rice was then quantified considering cropping calendars, rice phenology, and harvest times based on a time series of enhanced vegetation index (EVI) derived from MODIS satellite data, and a published rice flood damage function. The proposed concept provided flood risk maps to paddy rice for the Mekong Delta in terms of expected annual damage. The presented concept can be used as a blueprint for regions facing similar problems due to its generic approach. Furthermore, the changes in flood risk to paddy rice caused by changes in land use currently under discussion in the Mekong Delta were estimated. Two land-use scenarios either intensifying or reducing rice cropping were considered, and the changes in risk were presented in spatially explicit flood risk maps. The basic risk maps could serve as guidance for the authorities to develop spatially explicit flood management and mitigation plans for the delta. The land-use change risk maps could further be used for adaptive risk management plans and as a basis for a cost-benefit of the discussed land-use change scenarios. Additionally, the damage and risks maps may support the recently initiated agricultural insurance programme in Vietnam.}, language = {en} } @misc{UnterbergerHudsonBotzenetal.2018, author = {Unterberger, Christian and Hudson, Paul and Botzen, W. J. Wouter and Schroeer, Katharina and Steininger, Karl W.}, title = {Future public sector flood risk and risk sharing arrangements}, series = {Postprints der Universit{\"a}t Potsdam : Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe}, journal = {Postprints der Universit{\"a}t Potsdam : Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe}, number = {634}, issn = {1866-8372}, doi = {10.25932/publishup-42462}, url = {http://nbn-resolving.de/urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-424629}, pages = {11}, year = {2018}, abstract = {Climate change, along with socio-economic development, will increase the economic impacts of floods. While the factors that influence flood risk to private property have been extensively studied, the risk that natural disasters pose to public infrastructure and the resulting implications on public sector budgets, have received less attention. We address this gap by developing a two-staged model framework, which first assesses the flood risk to public infrastructure in Austria. Combining exposure and vulnerability information at the building level with inundation maps, we project an increase in riverine flood damage, which progressively burdens public budgets. Second, the risk estimates are integrated into an insurance model, which analyzes three different compensation arrangements in terms of the monetary burden they place on future governments' budgets and the respective volatility of payments. Formalized insurance compensation arrangements offer incentives for risk reduction measures, which lower the burden on public budgets by reducing the vulnerability of buildings that are exposed to flooding. They also significantly reduce the volatility of payments and thereby improve the predictability of flood damage expenditures. These features indicate that more formalized insurance arrangements are an improvement over the purely public compensation arrangement currently in place in Austria.}, language = {en} } @phdthesis{Hesse2018, author = {Hesse, Cornelia}, title = {Integrated water quality modelling in meso- to large-scale catchments of the Elbe river basin under climate and land use change}, doi = {10.25932/publishup-42295}, url = {http://nbn-resolving.de/urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-422957}, school = {Universit{\"a}t Potsdam}, pages = {ix, 217}, year = {2018}, abstract = {In einer sich {\"a}ndernden Umwelt sind Fließgew{\"a}sser{\"o}kosysteme vielf{\"a}ltigen direkten und indirekten anthropogenen Belastungen ausgesetzt, die die Gew{\"a}sser sowohl in ihrer Menge als auch in ihrer G{\"u}te beeintr{\"a}chtigen k{\"o}nnen. Ein {\"u}berm{\"a}ßiger Eintrag von N{\"a}hrstoffen verursacht etwa Massenentwicklungen von Algen und Sauerstoffdefizite in den Gew{\"a}ssern, was zum Verfehlen der Ziele der Wasserrahmenrichtlinie (WRRL) f{\"u}hren kann. In vielen europ{\"a}ischen Einzugsgebieten und auch dem der Elbe sind solche Probleme zu beobachten. W{\"a}hrend der letzten Jahrzehnte entstanden diverse computergest{\"u}tzte Modelle, die zum Schutz und Management von Wasserressourcen genutzt werden k{\"o}nnen. Sie helfen beim Verstehen der N{\"a}hrstoffprozesse und Belastungspfade in Einzugsgebieten, bei der Absch{\"a}tzung m{\"o}glicher Folgen von Klima- und Landnutzungs{\"a}nderungen f{\"u}r die Wasserk{\"o}rper, sowie bei der Entwicklung eventueller Kompensationsmaßnahmen. Aufgrund der Vielzahl an sich gegenseitig beeinflussenden Prozessen ist die Modellierung der Wasserqualit{\"a}t komplexer und aufw{\"a}ndiger als eine reine hydrologische Modellierung. {\"O}kohydrologische Modelle zur Simulation der Gew{\"a}sserg{\"u}te, einschließlich des Modells SWIM (Soil and Water Integrated Model), bed{\"u}rfen auch h{\"a}ufig noch einer Weiterentwicklung und Verbesserung der Prozessbeschreibungen. Aus diesen {\"U}berlegungen entstand die vorliegende Dissertation, die sich zwei Hauptanliegen widmet: 1) einer Weiterentwicklung des N{\"a}hrstoffmoduls des {\"o}kohydrologischen Modells SWIM f{\"u}r Stickstoff- und Phosphorprozesse, und 2) der Anwendung des Modells SWIM im Elbegebiet zur Unterst{\"u}tzung eines anpassungsf{\"a}higen Wassermanagements im Hinblick auf m{\"o}gliche zuk{\"u}nftige {\"A}nderungen der Umweltbedingungen. Die kumulative Dissertation basiert auf f{\"u}nf wissenschaftlichen Artikeln, die in internationalen Zeitschriften ver{\"o}ffentlicht wurden. Im Zuge der Arbeit wurden verschiedene Modellanpassungen in SWIM vorgenommen, wie etwa ein einfacher Ansatz zur Verbesserung der Simulation der Wasser- und N{\"a}hrstoffverh{\"a}ltnisse in Feuchtgebieten, ein um Ammonium erweiterter Stickstoffkreislauf im Boden, sowie ein Flussprozessmodul, das Umwandlungsprozesse, Sauerstoffverh{\"a}ltnisse und Algenwachstum im Fließgew{\"a}sser simuliert, haupts{\"a}chlich angetrieben von Temperatur und Licht. Auch wenn dieser neue Modellansatz ein sehr komplexes Modell mit einer Vielzahl an neuen Kalibrierungsparametern und steigender Unsicherheit erzeugte, konnten gute Ergebnisse in den Teileinzugsgebieten und dem gesamten Gebiet der Elbe erzielt werden, so dass das Modell zur Absch{\"a}tzung m{\"o}glicher Folgen von Klimavariabilit{\"a}ten und ver{\"a}nderten anthropogenen Einfl{\"u}ssen f{\"u}r die Gew{\"a}sserg{\"u}te genutzt werden konnte. Das neue Fließgew{\"a}ssermodul ist ein wichtiger Beitrag zur Verbesserung der N{\"a}hrstoffmodellierung in SWIM, vor allem f{\"u}r Stoffe, die haupts{\"a}chlich aus Punktquellen in die Gew{\"a}sser gelangen (wie z.B. Phosphat). Der neue Modellansatz verbessert zudem die Anwendbarkeit von SWIM f{\"u}r Fragestellungen im Zusammenhang mit der WRRL, bei der biologische Qualit{\"a}tskomponenten (wie etwa Phytoplankton) eine zentrale Rolle spielen. Die dargestellten Ergebnisse der Wirkungsstudien k{\"o}nnen bei Entscheidungstr{\"a}gern und anderen Akteuren das Verst{\"a}ndnis f{\"u}r zuk{\"u}nftige Herausforderungen im Gew{\"a}ssermanagement erh{\"o}hen und dazu beitragen, ein angepasstes Management f{\"u}r das Elbeeinzugsgebiet zu entwickeln.}, language = {en} } @phdthesis{Smith2018, author = {Smith, Taylor}, title = {Decadal changes in the snow regime of High Mountain Asia, 1987-2016}, url = {http://nbn-resolving.de/urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-407120}, school = {Universit{\"a}t Potsdam}, pages = {xiii, 142}, year = {2018}, abstract = {More than a billion people rely on water from rivers sourced in High Mountain Asia (HMA), a significant portion of which is derived from snow and glacier melt. Rural communities are heavily dependent on the consistency of runoff, and are highly vulnerable to shifts in their local environment brought on by climate change. Despite this dependence, the impacts of climate change in HMA remain poorly constrained due to poor process understanding, complex terrain, and insufficiently dense in-situ measurements. HMA's glaciers contain more frozen water than any region outside of the poles. Their extensive retreat is a highly visible and much studied marker of regional and global climate change. However, in many catchments, snow and snowmelt represent a much larger fraction of the yearly water budget than glacial meltwaters. Despite their importance, climate-related changes in HMA's snow resources have not been well studied. Changes in the volume and distribution of snowpack have complex and extensive impacts on both local and global climates. Eurasian snow cover has been shown to impact the strength and direction of the Indian Summer Monsoon -- which is responsible for much of the precipitation over the Indian Subcontinent -- by modulating earth-surface heating. Shifts in the timing of snowmelt have been shown to limit the productivity of major rangelands, reduce streamflow, modify sediment transport, and impact the spread of vector-borne diseases. However, a large-scale regional study of climate impacts on snow resources had yet to be undertaken. Passive Microwave (PM) remote sensing is a well-established empirical method of studying snow resources over large areas. Since 1987, there have been consistent daily global PM measurements which can be used to derive an estimate of snow depth, and hence snow-water equivalent (SWE) -- the amount of water stored in snowpack. The SWE estimation algorithms were originally developed for flat and even terrain -- such as the Russian and Canadian Arctic -- and have rarely been used in complex terrain such as HMA. This dissertation first examines factors present in HMA that could impact the reliability of SWE estimates. Forest cover, absolute snow depth, long-term average wind speeds, and hillslope angle were found to be the strongest controls on SWE measurement reliability. While forest density and snow depth are factors accounted for in modern SWE retrieval algorithms, wind speed and hillslope angle are not. Despite uncertainty in absolute SWE measurements and differences in the magnitude of SWE retrievals between sensors, single-instrument SWE time series were found to be internally consistent and suitable for trend analysis. Building on this finding, this dissertation tracks changes in SWE across HMA using a statistical decomposition technique. An aggregate decrease in SWE was found (10.6 mm/yr), despite large spatial and seasonal heterogeneities. Winter SWE increased in almost half of HMA, despite general negative trends throughout the rest of the year. The elevation distribution of these negative trends indicates that while changes in SWE have likely impacted glaciers in the region, climate change impacts on these two pieces of the cryosphere are somewhat distinct. Following the discussion of relative changes in SWE, this dissertation explores changes in the timing of the snowmelt season in HMA using a newly developed algorithm. The algorithm is shown to accurately track the onset and end of the snowmelt season (70\% within 5 days of a control dataset, 89\% within 10). Using a 29-year time series, changes in the onset, end, and duration of snowmelt are examined. While nearly the entirety of HMA has experienced an earlier end to the snowmelt season, large regions of HMA have seen a later start to the snowmelt season. Snowmelt periods have also decreased in almost all of HMA, indicating that the snowmelt season is generally shortening and ending earlier across HMA. By examining shifts in both the spatio-temporal distribution of SWE and the timing of the snowmelt season across HMA, we provide a detailed accounting of changes in HMA's snow resources. The overall trend in HMA is towards less SWE storage and a shorter snowmelt season. However, long-term and regional trends conceal distinct seasonal, temporal, and spatial heterogeneity, indicating that changes in snow resources are strongly controlled by local climate and topography, and that inter-annual variability plays a significant role in HMA's snow regime.}, language = {en} }