@misc{JeltschBontePe'eretal.2013, author = {Jeltsch, Florian and Bonte, Dries and Pe'er, Guy and Reineking, Bj{\"o}rn and Leimgruber, Peter and Balkenhol, Niko and Schr{\"o}der-Esselbach, Boris and Buchmann, Carsten M. and M{\"u}ller, Thomas and Blaum, Niels and Zurell, Damaris and B{\"o}hning-Gaese, Katrin and Wiegand, Thorsten and Eccard, Jana and Hofer, Heribert and Reeg, Jette and Eggers, Ute and Bauer, Silke}, title = {Integrating movement ecology with biodiversity research}, url = {http://nbn-resolving.de/urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-401177}, pages = {13}, year = {2013}, abstract = {Movement of organisms is one of the key mechanisms shaping biodiversity, e.g. the distribution of genes, individuals and species in space and time. Recent technological and conceptual advances have improved our ability to assess the causes and consequences of individual movement, and led to the emergence of the new field of 'movement ecology'. Here, we outline how movement ecology can contribute to the broad field of biodiversity research, i.e. the study of processes and patterns of life among and across different scales, from genes to ecosystems, and we propose a conceptual framework linking these hitherto largely separated fields of research. Our framework builds on the concept of movement ecology for individuals, and demonstrates its importance for linking individual organismal movement with biodiversity. First, organismal movements can provide 'mobile links' between habitats or ecosystems, thereby connecting resources, genes, and processes among otherwise separate locations. Understanding these mobile links and their impact on biodiversity will be facilitated by movement ecology, because mobile links can be created by different modes of movement (i.e., foraging, dispersal, migration) that relate to different spatiotemporal scales and have differential effects on biodiversity. Second, organismal movements can also mediate coexistence in communities, through 'equalizing' and 'stabilizing' mechanisms. This novel integrated framework provides a conceptual starting point for a better understanding of biodiversity dynamics in light of individual movement and space-use behavior across spatiotemporal scales. By illustrating this framework with examples, we argue that the integration of movement ecology and biodiversity research will also enhance our ability to conserve diversity at the genetic, species, and ecosystem levels.}, language = {en} } @article{HunkeMuellerSchroederEsselbachetal.2015, author = {Hunke, Philip and M{\"u}ller, Eva Nora and Schr{\"o}der-Esselbach, Boris and Zeilhofer, Peter}, title = {The Brazilian Cerrado: assessment of water and soil degradation in catchments under intensive agricultural use}, series = {Ecohydrology : ecosystems, land and water process interactions, ecohydrogeomorphology}, volume = {8}, journal = {Ecohydrology : ecosystems, land and water process interactions, ecohydrogeomorphology}, number = {6}, publisher = {Wiley-Blackwell}, address = {Hoboken}, issn = {1936-0584}, doi = {10.1002/eco.1573}, pages = {1154 -- 1180}, year = {2015}, abstract = {The Brazilian Cerrado is recognized as one of the most threatened biomes in the world, as the region has experienced a striking change from natural Cerrado vegetation to intense cash crop production. This paper reviews the history of land conversion in the Cerrado and the development of soil properties and water resources under past and ongoing land use. We compared soil and water quality parameters from different land uses considering 80 soil and 18 water studies conducted in different regions across the Cerrado to provide quantitative evidence of soil and water alterations from land use change. Following the conversion of native Cerrado, significant effects on soil pH, bulk density and available P and K for croplands and less-pronounced effects on pastures were evident. Soil total N did not differ between land uses because most of the sites classified as croplands were nitrogen-fixing soybeans, which are not artificially fertilized with N. In contrast, water quality studies showed nitrogen enrichment in agricultural catchments, indicating fertilizer impacts and potential susceptibility to eutrophication. Regardless of the land use, P is widely absent because of the high-fixing capacities of deeply weathered soils and the filtering capacity of riparian vegetation. Pesticides, however, were consistently detected throughout the entire aquatic system. In several case studies, extremely high-peak concentrations exceeded Brazilian and European Union (EU) water quality limits, which were potentially accompanied by serious health implications. Land use intensification is likely to continue, particularly in regions where less annual rainfall and severe droughts are projected in the northeastern and western Cerrado. Thus, the leaching risk and displacement of agrochemicals are expected to increase, particularly because the current legislation has caused a reduction in riparian vegetation. We conclude that land use intensification is likely to seriously limit the Cerrado's future regarding both agricultural productivity and ecosystem stability. Because only limited data are available, we recommend further field studies to understand the interaction between terrestrial and aquatic systems. This study may serve as a valuable database for integrated modelling to investigate the impact of land use and climate change on soil and water resources and to test and develop mitigation measures for the Cerrado. Copyright (C) 2014 John Wiley \& Sons, Ltd.}, language = {en} } @article{MuellervanSchaikBlumeetal.2014, author = {M{\"u}ller, Eva Nora and van Schaik, Loes and Blume, Theresa and Bronstert, Axel and Carus, Jana and Fleckenstein, Jan H. and Fohrer, Nicola and Geissler, Katja and Gerke, Horst H. and Gr{\"a}ff, Thomas and Hesse, Cornelia and Hildebrandt, Anke and H{\"o}lker, Franz and Hunke, Philip and K{\"o}rner, Katrin and Lewandowski, J{\"o}rg and Lohmann, Dirk and Meinikmann, Karin and Schibalski, Anett and Schmalz, Britta and Schr{\"o}der-Esselbach, Boris and Tietjen, Britta}, title = {Scales, key aspects, feedbacks and challenges of ecohydrological research in Germany}, series = {Hydrologie und Wasserbewirtschaftung}, volume = {58}, journal = {Hydrologie und Wasserbewirtschaftung}, number = {4}, publisher = {Bundesanst. f{\"u}r Gew{\"a}sserkunde}, address = {Koblenz}, issn = {1439-1783}, doi = {10.5675/HyWa_2014,4_2}, pages = {221 -- 240}, year = {2014}, abstract = {Ecohydrology analyses the interactions of biotic and abiotic aspects of our ecosystems and landscapes. It is a highly diverse discipline in terms of its thematic and methodical research foci. This article gives an overview of current German ecohydrological research approaches within plant-animal-soil-systems, meso-scale catchments and their river networks, lake systems, coastal areas and tidal rivers. It discusses their relevant spatial and temporal process scales and different types of interactions and feedback dynamics between hydrological and biotic processes and patterns. The following topics are considered key challenges: innovative analysis of the interdisciplinary scale continuum, development of dynamically coupled model systems, integrated monitoring of coupled processes at the interface and transition from basic to applied ecohydrological science to develop sustainable water and land resource management strategies under regional and global change.}, language = {de} } @article{SchulzCayuelaReyBenayasetal.2011, author = {Schulz, Jennifer J. and Cayuela, Luis and Rey-Benayas, Jose M. and Schr{\"o}der-Esselbach, Boris}, title = {Factors influencing vegetation cover change in Mediterranean Central Chile (1975-2008)}, series = {Applied vegetation science : official organ of the International Association for Vegetation Science}, volume = {14}, journal = {Applied vegetation science : official organ of the International Association for Vegetation Science}, number = {4}, publisher = {Wiley-Blackwell}, address = {Hoboken}, issn = {1402-2001}, doi = {10.1111/j.1654-109X.2011.01135.x}, pages = {571 -- 582}, year = {2011}, abstract = {Questions: Which are the factors that influence forest and shrubland loss and regeneration and their underlying drivers? Location: Central Chile, a world biodiversity hotspot. Methods: Using land-cover data from the years 1975, 1985, 1999 and 2008, we fitted classification trees and multiple logistic regression models to account for the relationship between different trajectories of vegetation change and a range of biophysical and socio-economic factors. Results: The variables that most consistently showed significant effects on vegetation change across all time-intervals were slope and distance to primary roads. We found that forest and shrubland loss on one side and regeneration on the other often displayed opposite patterns in relation to the different explanatory variables. Deforestation was positively related to distance to primary roads and to distance within forest edges and was favoured by a low insolation and a low slope. In turn, forest regeneration was negatively related to the distance to primary roads and positively to the distance to the nearest forest patch, insolation and slope. Shrubland loss was positively influenced by slope and distance to cities and primary roads and negatively influenced by distance to rivers. Conversely, shrubland regeneration was negatively related to slope, distance to cities and distance to primary roads and positively related to distance from existing forest patches and distance to rivers. Conclusions: This article reveals how biophysical and socioeconomic factors influence vegetation cover change and the underlying social, political and economical drivers. This assessment provides a basis for management decisions, considering the crucial role of perennial vegetation cover for sustaining biodiversity and ecosystem services.}, language = {en} } @article{WintleBekessyKeithetal.2011, author = {Wintle, Brendan A. and Bekessy, Sarah A. and Keith, David A. and van Wilgen, Brian W. and Cabeza, Mar and Schr{\"o}der-Esselbach, Boris and Carvalho, Silvia B. and Falcucci, Alessandra and Maiorano, Luigi and Regan, Tracey J. and Rondinini, Carlo and Boitani, Luigi and Possingham, Hugh P.}, title = {Ecological-economic optimization of biodiversity conservation under climate change}, series = {Nature climate change}, volume = {1}, journal = {Nature climate change}, number = {7}, publisher = {Nature Publ. Group}, address = {London}, issn = {1758-678X}, doi = {10.1038/NCLIMATE1227}, pages = {355 -- 359}, year = {2011}, abstract = {Substantial investment in climate change research has led to dire predictions of the impacts and risks to biodiversity. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change fourth assessment report(1) cites 28,586 studies demonstrating significant biological changes in terrestrial systems(2). Already high extinction rates, driven primarily by habitat loss, are predicted to increase under climate change(3-6). Yet there is little specific advice or precedent in the literature to guide climate adaptation investment for conserving biodiversity within realistic economic constraints(7). Here we present a systematic ecological and economic analysis of a climate adaptation problem in one of the world's most species-rich and threatened ecosystems: the South African fynbos. We discover a counterintuitive optimal investment strategy that switches twice between options as the available adaptation budget increases. We demonstrate that optimal investment is nonlinearly dependent on available resources, making the choice of how much to invest as important as determining where to invest and what actions to take. Our study emphasizes the importance of a sound analytical framework for prioritizing adaptation investments(4). Integrating ecological predictions in an economic decision framework will help support complex choices between adaptation options under severe uncertainty. Our prioritization method can be applied at any scale to minimize species loss and to evaluate the robustness of decisions to uncertainty about key assumptions.}, language = {en} } @unpublished{WellsteinSchroederEsselbachReinekingetal.2011, author = {Wellstein, Camilla and Schr{\"o}der-Esselbach, Boris and Reineking, Bjoern and Zimmermann, Niklaus E.}, title = {Understanding species and community response to environmental change - A functional trait perspective}, series = {Agriculture, ecosystems \& environment : an international journal for scientific research on the relationship of agriculture and food production to the biosphere}, volume = {145}, journal = {Agriculture, ecosystems \& environment : an international journal for scientific research on the relationship of agriculture and food production to the biosphere}, number = {1}, publisher = {Elsevier}, address = {Amsterdam}, issn = {0167-8809}, doi = {10.1016/j.agee.2011.06.024}, pages = {1 -- 4}, year = {2011}, language = {en} } @misc{ZurellElithSchroederEsselbach2012, author = {Zurell, Damaris and Elith, Jane and Schr{\"o}der-Esselbach, Boris}, title = {Predicting to new environments tools for visualizing model behaviour and impacts on mapped distributions}, series = {Diversity \& distributions : a journal of biological invasions and biodiversity}, volume = {18}, journal = {Diversity \& distributions : a journal of biological invasions and biodiversity}, number = {6}, publisher = {Wiley-Blackwell}, address = {Hoboken}, issn = {1366-9516}, doi = {10.1111/j.1472-4642.2012.00887.x}, pages = {628 -- 634}, year = {2012}, abstract = {Data limitations can lead to unrealistic fits of predictive species distribution models (SDMs) and spurious extrapolation to novel environments. Here, we want to draw attention to novel combinations of environmental predictors that are within the sampled range of individual predictors but are nevertheless outside the sample space. These tend to be overlooked when visualizing model behaviour. They may be a cause of differing model transferability and environmental change predictions between methods, a problem described in some studies but generally not well understood. We here use a simple simulated data example to illustrate the problem and provide new and complementary visualization techniques to explore model behaviour and predictions to novel environments. We then apply these in a more complex real-world example. Our results underscore the necessity of scrutinizing model fits, ecological theory and environmental novelty.}, language = {en} } @misc{SchneiderSchroederEsselbach2012, author = {Schneider, Anne-Kathrin and Schr{\"o}der-Esselbach, Boris}, title = {Perspectives in modelling earthworm dynamics and their feedbacks with abiotic soil properties}, series = {Applied soil ecology : a section of agriculture, ecosystems \& environment}, volume = {58}, journal = {Applied soil ecology : a section of agriculture, ecosystems \& environment}, number = {1}, publisher = {Elsevier}, address = {Amsterdam}, issn = {0929-1393}, doi = {10.1016/j.apsoil.2012.02.020}, pages = {29 -- 36}, year = {2012}, abstract = {Effects of earthworms on soil abiotic properties are well documented from several decades of laboratory and mesocosm experiments, and they are supposed to affect large-scale soil ecosystem functioning. The prediction of the spatiotemporal occurrence of earthworms and the related functional effects in the field or at larger scales, however, is constrained by adequate modelling approaches. Correlative, phenomenological methods, such as species distribution models, facilitate the identification of factors that drive species' distributions. However, these methods ignore the ability of earthworms to select and modify their own habitat and therefore may lead to unreliable predictions. Understanding these feedbacks between earthworms and abiotic soil properties is a key requisite to better understand their spatiotemporal distribution as well as to quantify the various functional effects of earthworms in soil ecosystems. Process-based models that investigate either effects or responses of earthworms on soil environmental conditions are mostly applied in ecotoxicological and bioturbation studies. Process-based models that describe feedbacks between earthworms and soil abiotic properties explicitly are rare. In this review, we analysed 18 process-based earthworm dynamic modelling studies pointing out the current gaps and future challenges in feedback modelling. We identify three main challenges: (i) adequate and reliable process identification in model development at and across relevant spatiotemporal scales (individual behaviour and population dynamics of earthworms), (ii) use of information from different data sources in one model (laboratory or field experiments, earthworm species or functional type) and (iii) quantification of uncertainties in data (e.g. spatiotemporal variability of earthworm abundances and soil hydraulic properties) and derived parameters (e.g. population growth rate and hydraulic conductivity) that are used in the model.}, language = {en} } @article{ZurellGrimmRossmanithetal.2012, author = {Zurell, Damaris and Grimm, Volker and Rossmanith, Eva and Zbinden, Niklaus and Zimmermann, Niklaus E. and Schr{\"o}der-Esselbach, Boris}, title = {Uncertainty in predictions of range dynamics black grouse climbing the Swiss Alps}, series = {Ecography : pattern and diversity in ecology ; research papers forum}, volume = {35}, journal = {Ecography : pattern and diversity in ecology ; research papers forum}, number = {7}, publisher = {Wiley-Blackwell}, address = {Hoboken}, issn = {0906-7590}, doi = {10.1111/j.1600-0587.2011.07200.x}, pages = {590 -- 603}, year = {2012}, abstract = {Empirical species distribution models (SDMs) constitute often the tool of choice for the assessment of rapid climate change effects on species vulnerability. Conclusions regarding extinction risks might be misleading, however, because SDMs do not explicitly incorporate dispersal or other demographic processes. Here, we supplement SDMs with a dynamic population model 1) to predict climate-induced range dynamics for black grouse in Switzerland, 2) to compare direct and indirect measures of extinction risks, and 3) to quantify uncertainty in predictions as well as the sources of that uncertainty. To this end, we linked models of habitat suitability to a spatially explicit, individual-based model. In an extensive sensitivity analysis, we quantified uncertainty in various model outputs introduced by different SDM algorithms, by different climate scenarios and by demographic model parameters. Potentially suitable habitats were predicted to shift uphill and eastwards. By the end of the 21st century, abrupt habitat losses were predicted in the western Prealps for some climate scenarios. In contrast, population size and occupied area were primarily controlled by currently negative population growth and gradually declined from the beginning of the century across all climate scenarios and SDM algorithms. However, predictions of population dynamic features were highly variable across simulations. Results indicate that inferring extinction probabilities simply from the quantity of suitable habitat may underestimate extinction risks because this may ignore important interactions between life history traits and available habitat. Also, in dynamic range predictions uncertainty in SDM algorithms and climate scenarios can become secondary to uncertainty in dynamic model components. Our study emphasises the need for principal evaluation tools like sensitivity analysis in order to assess uncertainty and robustness in dynamic range predictions. A more direct benefit of such robustness analysis is an improved mechanistic understanding of dynamic species responses to climate change.}, language = {en} } @article{VorpahlElsenbeerMaerkeretal.2012, author = {Vorpahl, Peter and Elsenbeer, Helmut and M{\"a}rker, Michael and Schr{\"o}der-Esselbach, Boris}, title = {How can statistical models help to determine driving factors of landslides?}, series = {Ecological modelling : international journal on ecological modelling and engineering and systems ecolog}, volume = {239}, journal = {Ecological modelling : international journal on ecological modelling and engineering and systems ecolog}, number = {7}, publisher = {Elsevier}, address = {Amsterdam}, issn = {0304-3800}, doi = {10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2011.12.007}, pages = {27 -- 39}, year = {2012}, abstract = {Landslides are a hazard for humans and artificial structures. From an ecological point of view, they represent an important ecosystem disturbance, especially in tropical montane forests. Here, shallow translational landslides are a frequent natural phenomenon and one local determinant of high levels of biodiversity. In this paper, we apply weighted ensembles of advanced phenomenological models from statistics and machine learning to analyze the driving factors of natural landslides in a tropical montane forest in South Ecuador. We exclusively interpret terrain attributes, derived from a digital elevation model, as proxies to several driving factors of landslides and use them as predictors in our models which are trained on a set of five historical landslide inventories. We check the model generality by transferring them in time and use three common performance criteria (i.e. AUC, explained deviance and slope of model calibration curve) to, on the one hand, compare several state-of-the-art model approaches and on the other hand, to create weighted model ensembles. Our results suggest that it is important to consider more than one single performance criterion. Approaching our main question, we compare responses of weighted model ensembles that were trained on distinct functional units of landslides (i.e. initiation, transport and deposition zones). This way, we are able to show that it is quite possible to deduce driving factors of landslides, if the consistency between the training data and the processes is maintained. Opening the 'black box' of statistical models by interpreting univariate model response curves and relative importance of single predictors regarding their plausibility, we provide a means to verify this consistency. With the exception of classification tree analysis, all techniques performed comparably well in our case study while being outperformed by weighted model ensembles. Univariate response curves of models trained on distinct functional units of landslides exposed different shapes following our expectations. Our results indicate the occurrence of landslides to be mainly controlled by factors related to the general position along a slope (i.e. ridge, open slope or valley) while landslide initiation seems to be favored by small scale convexities on otherwise plain open slopes.}, language = {en} } @article{HaeringDietzOsenstetteretal.2012, author = {H{\"a}ring, Tim and Dietz, Elke and Osenstetter, Sebastian and Koschitzki, Thomas and Schr{\"o}der-Esselbach, Boris}, title = {Spatial disaggregation of complex soil map units: A decision-tree based approach in Bavarian forest soils}, series = {Geoderma : an international journal of soil science}, volume = {185}, journal = {Geoderma : an international journal of soil science}, number = {6}, publisher = {Elsevier}, address = {Amsterdam}, issn = {0016-7061}, doi = {10.1016/j.geoderma.2012.04.001}, pages = {37 -- 47}, year = {2012}, abstract = {Detailed knowledge on the spatial distribution of soils is crucial for environmental monitoring, management, and modeling. However soil maps with a finite number of discrete soil map units are often the only available information about soils. Depending on the map scale or the detailing of the map legend this information could be too imprecise. We present a method for the spatial disaggregation of map units, namely the refinement of complex soil map units in which two or more soil types are aggregated. Our aim is to draw new boundaries inside the map polygons to represent a single soil type and no longer a mixture of several soil types. The basic idea for our method is the functional relationship between soil types and topographic position as formulated in the concept of the catena. We use a comprehensive soil profile database and topographic attributes derived from a 10 m digital elevation model as input data for the classification of soil types with random forest models. We grouped all complex map units which have the same combination of soil types. Each group of map units is modeled separately. For prediction of the soil types we stratified the soil map into these groups and apply a specific random forest model only to the associated map units. In order to get reliable results we define a threshold for the predicted probabilities at 0.7 to assign a specific soil type. In areas where the probability is below 0.7 for every possible soil type we assign a new class "indifferent" because the model only makes unspecific classification there. Our results show a significant spatial refinement of the original soil polygons. Validation of our predictions was estimated on 1812 independent soil profiles which were collected subsequent to prediction in the field. Field validation gave an overall accuracy of 70\%. Map units, in which shallow soils were grouped together with deep soils could be separated best. Also histosols could be predicted successful. Highest error rate were found in map units, in which Gleysoils were grouped together with deep soils or Anthrosols. To check for validity of our results we open the black box random forest model by calculating the variable importance for each predictor variable and plotting response surfaces. We found good confirmations of our hypotheses, that topography has a significant influence on the spatial arrangement of soil types and that these relationships can be used for disaggregation.}, language = {en} } @misc{SchurrPagelSarmentoetal.2012, author = {Schurr, Frank Martin and Pagel, J{\"o}rn and Sarmento, Juliano Sarmento and Groeneveld, Juergen and Bykova, Olga and O'Hara, Robert B. and Hartig, Florian and Kissling, W. Daniel and Linder, H. Peter and Midgley, Guy F. and Schr{\"o}der-Esselbach, Boris and Singer, Alexander and Zimmermann, Niklaus E.}, title = {How to understand species' niches and range dynamics: a demographic research agenda for biogeography}, series = {Journal of biogeography}, volume = {39}, journal = {Journal of biogeography}, number = {12}, publisher = {Wiley-Blackwell}, address = {Hoboken}, issn = {0305-0270}, doi = {10.1111/j.1365-2699.2012.02737.x}, pages = {2146 -- 2162}, year = {2012}, abstract = {Range dynamics causes mismatches between a species geographical distribution and the set of suitable environments in which population growth is positive (the Hutchinsonian niche). This is because sourcesink population dynamics cause species to occupy unsuitable environments, and because environmental change creates non-equilibrium situations in which species may be absent from suitable environments (due to migration limitation) or present in unsuitable environments that were previously suitable (due to time-delayed extinction). Because correlative species distribution models do not account for these processes, they are likely to produce biased niche estimates and biased forecasts of future range dynamics. Recently developed dynamic range models (DRMs) overcome this problem: they statistically estimate both range dynamics and the underlying environmental response of demographic rates from species distribution data. This process-based statistical approach qualitatively advances biogeographical analyses. Yet, the application of DRMs to a broad range of species and study systems requires substantial research efforts in statistical modelling, empirical data collection and ecological theory. Here we review current and potential contributions of these fields to a demographic understanding of niches and range dynamics. Our review serves to formulate a demographic research agenda that entails: (1) advances in incorporating process-based models of demographic responses and range dynamics into a statistical framework, (2) systematic collection of data on temporal changes in distribution and abundance and on the response of demographic rates to environmental variation, and (3) improved theoretical understanding of the scaling of demographic rates and the dynamics of spatially coupled populations. This demographic research agenda is challenging but necessary for improved comprehension and quantification of niches and range dynamics. It also forms the basis for understanding how niches and range dynamics are shaped by evolutionary dynamics and biotic interactions. Ultimately, the demographic research agenda should lead to deeper integration of biogeography with empirical and theoretical ecology.}, language = {en} } @misc{DormannSchymanskiCabraletal.2012, author = {Dormann, Carsten F. and Schymanski, Stanislaus J. and Cabral, Juliano Sarmento and Chuine, Isabelle and Graham, Catherine and Hartig, Florian and Kearney, Michael and Morin, Xavier and R{\"o}mermann, Christine and Schr{\"o}der-Esselbach, Boris and Singer, Alexander}, title = {Correlation and process in species distribution models: bridging a dichotomy}, series = {Journal of biogeography}, volume = {39}, journal = {Journal of biogeography}, number = {12}, publisher = {Wiley-Blackwell}, address = {Hoboken}, issn = {0305-0270}, doi = {10.1111/j.1365-2699.2011.02659.x}, pages = {2119 -- 2131}, year = {2012}, abstract = {Within the field of species distribution modelling an apparent dichotomy exists between process-based and correlative approaches, where the processes are explicit in the former and implicit in the latter. However, these intuitive distinctions can become blurred when comparing species distribution modelling approaches in more detail. In this review article, we contrast the extremes of the correlativeprocess spectrum of species distribution models with respect to core assumptions, model building and selection strategies, validation, uncertainties, common errors and the questions they are most suited to answer. The extremes of such approaches differ clearly in many aspects, such as model building approaches, parameter estimation strategies and transferability. However, they also share strengths and weaknesses. We show that claims of one approach being intrinsically superior to the other are misguided and that they ignore the processcorrelation continuum as well as the domains of questions that each approach is addressing. Nonetheless, the application of process-based approaches to species distribution modelling lags far behind more correlative (process-implicit) methods and more research is required to explore their potential benefits. Critical issues for the employment of species distribution modelling approaches are given, together with a guideline for appropriate usage. We close with challenges for future development of process-explicit species distribution models and how they may complement current approaches to study species distributions.}, language = {en} } @article{HaeringRegerEwaldetal.2013, author = {H{\"a}ring, Tim and Reger, Birgit and Ewald, J{\"o}rg and Hothorn, Torsten and Schr{\"o}der-Esselbach, Boris}, title = {Predicting Ellenberg's soil moisture indicator value in the Bavarian Alps using additive georegression}, series = {Applied vegetation science : official organ of the International Association for Vegetation Science}, volume = {16}, journal = {Applied vegetation science : official organ of the International Association for Vegetation Science}, number = {1}, publisher = {Wiley-Blackwell}, address = {Hoboken}, issn = {1402-2001}, doi = {10.1111/j.1654-109X.2012.01210.x}, pages = {110 -- 121}, year = {2013}, abstract = {Questions Can forest site characteristics be used to predict Ellenberg indicator values for soil moisture? Which is the best averaged mean value for modelling? Does the distribution of soil moisture depend on spatial information? Location Bavarian Alps, Germany. Methods We used topographic, climatic and edaphic variables to model the mean soil moisture value as found on 1505 forest plots from the database WINALPecobase. All predictor variables were taken from area-wide geodata layers so that the model can be applied to some 250 000 ha of forest in the target region. We adopted methods developed in species distribution modelling to regionalize Ellenberg indicator values. Therefore, we use the additive georegression framework for spatial prediction of Ellenberg values with the R-library mboost, which is a feasible way to consider environmental effects, spatial autocorrelation, predictor interactions and non-stationarity simultaneously in our data. The framework is much more flexible than established statistical and machine-learning models in species distribution modelling. We estimated five different mboost models reflecting different model structures on 50 bootstrap samples in each case. Results Median R2 values calculated on independent test samples ranged from 0.28 to 0.45. Our results show a significant influence of interactions and non-stationarity in addition to environmental covariates. Unweighted mean indicator values can be modelled better than abundance-weighted values, and the consideration of bryophytes did not improve model performance. Partial response curves indicate meaningful dependencies between moisture indicator values and environmental covariates. However, mean indicator values <4.5 and >6.0 could not be modelled correctly, since they were poorly represented in our calibration sample. The final map represents high-resolution information of site hydrological conditions. Conclusions Indicator values offer an effect-oriented alternative to physically-based hydrological models to predict water-related site conditions, even at landscape scale. The presented approach is applicable to all kinds of Ellenberg indicator values. Therefore, it is a significant step towards a new generation of models of forest site types and potential natural vegetation.}, language = {en} } @article{PalmvanSchaikSchroederEsselbach2013, author = {Palm, Juliane and van Schaik, N. Loes M. B. and Schr{\"o}der-Esselbach, Boris}, title = {Modelling distribution patterns of anecic, epigeic and endogeic earthworms at catchment-scale in agro-ecosystems}, series = {Pedobiologia : international journal of soil biology}, volume = {56}, journal = {Pedobiologia : international journal of soil biology}, number = {1}, publisher = {Elsevier}, address = {Jena}, issn = {0031-4056}, doi = {10.1016/j.pedobi.2012.08.007}, pages = {23 -- 31}, year = {2013}, abstract = {Species distribution models are useful for identifying driving environmental factors that determine earthworm distributions as well as for predicting earthworm distribution patterns and abundances at different scales. However, due to large efforts in data acquisition, studies on larger scales are rare and often focus on single species or earthworms in general. In this study, we use boosted regression tree models (BRTs) for predicting the distribution of the three functional earthworm types, i.e. anecics, endogeics and epigeics, in an agricultural area in Baden-Wurttemberg (Southwest Germany). First, we predicted presence and absence and later earthworm abundances, considering predictors depicting land management, topography, and soil conditions as well as biotic interaction by using the abundance of the other functional earthworm types. The final presence-absence models performed reasonably well, with explained deviances between 24 and 51\% after crossvalidation. Models for abundances of anecics and endogeics were less successful, since the high small-scale variability and patchiness in earthworm abundance influenced the representativeness of the field measurements. This resulted in a significant model uncertainty, which is practically very difficult to overcome with earthworm sampling campaigns at the catchment scale. Results showed that management practices (i.e. disturbances), topography, soil conditions, and biotic interactions with other earthworm groups are the most relevant predictors for spatial distribution (incidence) patterns of all three functional groups. The response curves and contributions of predictors differ for the three functional earthworm types. Epigeics are also controlled by topographic features, endogeics by soil parameters.}, language = {en} } @article{DormannElithBacheretal.2013, author = {Dormann, Carsten F. and Elith, Jane and Bacher, Sven and Buchmann, Carsten M. and Carl, Gudrun and Carre, Gabriel and Garcia Marquez, Jaime R. and Gruber, Bernd and Lafourcade, Bruno and Leitao, Pedro J. and M{\"u}nkem{\"u}ller, Tamara and McClean, Colin and Osborne, Patrick E. and Reineking, Bjoern and Schr{\"o}der-Esselbach, Boris and Skidmore, Andrew K. and Zurell, Damaris and Lautenbach, Sven}, title = {Collinearity a review of methods to deal with it and a simulation study evaluating their performance}, series = {Ecography : pattern and diversity in ecology ; research papers forum}, volume = {36}, journal = {Ecography : pattern and diversity in ecology ; research papers forum}, number = {1}, publisher = {Wiley-Blackwell}, address = {Hoboken}, issn = {0906-7590}, doi = {10.1111/j.1600-0587.2012.07348.x}, pages = {27 -- 46}, year = {2013}, abstract = {Collinearity refers to the non independence of predictor variables, usually in a regression-type analysis. It is a common feature of any descriptive ecological data set and can be a problem for parameter estimation because it inflates the variance of regression parameters and hence potentially leads to the wrong identification of relevant predictors in a statistical model. Collinearity is a severe problem when a model is trained on data from one region or time, and predicted to another with a different or unknown structure of collinearity. To demonstrate the reach of the problem of collinearity in ecology, we show how relationships among predictors differ between biomes, change over spatial scales and through time. Across disciplines, different approaches to addressing collinearity problems have been developed, ranging from clustering of predictors, threshold-based pre-selection, through latent variable methods, to shrinkage and regularisation. Using simulated data with five predictor-response relationships of increasing complexity and eight levels of collinearity we compared ways to address collinearity with standard multiple regression and machine-learning approaches. We assessed the performance of each approach by testing its impact on prediction to new data. In the extreme, we tested whether the methods were able to identify the true underlying relationship in a training dataset with strong collinearity by evaluating its performance on a test dataset without any collinearity. We found that methods specifically designed for collinearity, such as latent variable methods and tree based models, did not outperform the traditional GLM and threshold-based pre-selection. Our results highlight the value of GLM in combination with penalised methods (particularly ridge) and threshold-based pre-selection when omitted variables are considered in the final interpretation. However, all approaches tested yielded degraded predictions under change in collinearity structure and the folk lore'-thresholds of correlation coefficients between predictor variables of |r| >0.7 was an appropriate indicator for when collinearity begins to severely distort model estimation and subsequent prediction. The use of ecological understanding of the system in pre-analysis variable selection and the choice of the least sensitive statistical approaches reduce the problems of collinearity, but cannot ultimately solve them.}, language = {en} } @article{VorpahlDislichElsenbeeretal.2013, author = {Vorpahl, Peter and Dislich, Claudia and Elsenbeer, Helmut and M{\"a}rker, Michael and Schr{\"o}der-Esselbach, Boris}, title = {Biotic controls on shallow translational landslides}, series = {Earth surface processes and landforms : the journal of the British Geomorphological Research Group}, volume = {38}, journal = {Earth surface processes and landforms : the journal of the British Geomorphological Research Group}, number = {2}, publisher = {Wiley-Blackwell}, address = {Hoboken}, issn = {0197-9337}, doi = {10.1002/esp.3320}, pages = {198 -- 212}, year = {2013}, abstract = {In undisturbed tropical montane rainforests massive organic layers accommodate the majority of roots and only a small fraction of roots penetrate the mineral soil. We investigated the contribution of vegetation to slope stability in such environments by modifying a standard model for slope stability to include an organic layer with distinct mechanical properties. The importance of individual model parameters was evaluated using detailed measurements of soil and vegetation properties to reproduce the observed depth of 11 shallow landslides in the Andes of southern Ecuador. By distinguishing mineral soil, organic layer and above-ground biomass, it is shown that in this environment vegetation provides a destabilizing effect mainly due to its contribution to the mass of the organic layer (up to 973 t ha-1 under wet conditions). Sensitivity analysis shows that the destabilizing effect of the mass of soil and vegetation can only be effective on slopes steeper than 37.9 degrees. This situation applies to 36\% of the study area. Thus, on the steep slopes of this megadiverse ecosystem, the mass of the growing forest promotes landsliding, which in turn promotes a new cycle of succession. This feedback mechanism is worth consideration in further investigations of the impact of landslides on plant diversity in similar environments.}, language = {en} } @article{RichterSchroederEsselbachHartmannetal.2013, author = {Richter, Dania and Schr{\"o}der-Esselbach, Boris and Hartmann, Niklas K. and Matuschka, Franz-Rainer}, title = {Spatial stratification of various Lyme disease spirochetes in a Central European site}, series = {FEMS microbiology ecology}, volume = {83}, journal = {FEMS microbiology ecology}, number = {3}, publisher = {Wiley-Blackwell}, address = {Hoboken}, issn = {0168-6496}, doi = {10.1111/1574-6941.12029}, pages = {738 -- 744}, year = {2013}, abstract = {To determine whether the genospecies composition of Lyme disease spirochetes is spatially stratified, we collected questing Ixodes ricinus ticks in neighboring plots where rodents, birds, and lizards were present as reservoir host and compared the prevalence of various genospecies. The overall prevalence of spirochetes in questing ticks varied across the study site. Borrelia lusitaniae appeared to infect adult ticks in one plot at the same frequency as did Borrelia afzelii in the other plots. The relative density of questing nymphal and adult ticks varied profoundly. Where lizards were exceedingly abundant, these vertebrates seemed to constitute the dominant host for nymphal ticks, contributing the majority of infected adult ticks. Because lizards support solely B.lusitaniae and appear to exclude other genospecies, their narrow genospecies association results in predominance of B.lusitaniae in sites where lizards are abundant, while limiting its spread to the host's habitat range. To the extent that Central European B.lusitaniae strains are nonpathogenic, the presence of numerous lizards should locally decrease risk of infection for people. Evaluation of regional risk of infection by Lyme disease spirochetes should take the spatial effect of hosts into consideration, which stratify the distribution of specifically infected ticks on a small scale.}, language = {en} } @article{KramerSchadtNiedballaPilgrimetal.2013, author = {Kramer-Schadt, Stephanie and Niedballa, J{\"u}rgen and Pilgrim, John D. and Schr{\"o}der-Esselbach, Boris and Lindenborn, Jana and Reinfelder, Vanessa and Stillfried, Milena and Heckmann, Ilja and Scharf, Anne K. and Augeri, Dave M. and Cheyne, Susan M. and Hearn, Andrew J. and Ross, Joanna and Macdonald, David W. and Mathai, John and Eaton, James and Marshall, Andrew J. and Semiadi, Gono and Rustam, Rustam and Bernard, Henry and Alfred, Raymond and Samejima, Hiromitsu and Duckworth, J. W. and Breitenmoser-Wuersten, Christine and Belant, Jerrold L. and Hofer, Heribert and Wilting, Andreas}, title = {The importance of correcting for sampling bias in MaxEnt species distribution models}, series = {Diversity \& distributions : a journal of biological invasions and biodiversity}, volume = {19}, journal = {Diversity \& distributions : a journal of biological invasions and biodiversity}, number = {11}, publisher = {Wiley-Blackwell}, address = {Hoboken}, issn = {1366-9516}, doi = {10.1111/ddi.12096}, pages = {1366 -- 1379}, year = {2013}, abstract = {AimAdvancement in ecological methods predicting species distributions is a crucial precondition for deriving sound management actions. Maximum entropy (MaxEnt) models are a popular tool to predict species distributions, as they are considered able to cope well with sparse, irregularly sampled data and minor location errors. Although a fundamental assumption of MaxEnt is that the entire area of interest has been systematically sampled, in practice, MaxEnt models are usually built from occurrence records that are spatially biased towards better-surveyed areas. Two common, yet not compared, strategies to cope with uneven sampling effort are spatial filtering of occurrence data and background manipulation using environmental data with the same spatial bias as occurrence data. We tested these strategies using simulated data and a recently collated dataset on Malay civet Viverra tangalunga in Borneo. LocationBorneo, Southeast Asia. MethodsWe collated 504 occurrence records of Malay civets from Borneo of which 291 records were from 2001 to 2011 and used them in the MaxEnt analysis (baseline scenario) together with 25 environmental input variables. We simulated datasets for two virtual species (similar to a range-restricted highland and a lowland species) using the same number of records for model building. As occurrence records were biased towards north-eastern Borneo, we investigated the efficacy of spatial filtering versus background manipulation to reduce overprediction or underprediction in specific areas. ResultsSpatial filtering minimized omission errors (false negatives) and commission errors (false positives). We recommend that when sample size is insufficient to allow spatial filtering, manipulation of the background dataset is preferable to not correcting for sampling bias, although predictions were comparatively weak and commission errors increased. Main ConclusionsWe conclude that a substantial improvement in the quality of model predictions can be achieved if uneven sampling effort is taken into account, thereby improving the efficacy of species conservation planning.}, language = {en} } @article{JeltschBontePeeretal.2013, author = {Jeltsch, Florian and Bonte, Dries and Peer, Guy and Reineking, Bj{\"o}rn and Leimgruber, Peter and Balkenhol, Niko and Schr{\"o}der-Esselbach, Boris and Buchmann, Carsten M. and M{\"u}ller, Thomas and Blaum, Niels and Zurell, Damaris and B{\"o}hning-Gaese, Katrin and Wiegand, Thorsten and Eccard, Jana and Hofer, Heribert and Reeg, Jette and Eggers, Ute and Bauer, Silke}, title = {Integrating movement ecology with biodiversity research - exploring new avenues to address spatiotemporal biodiversity dynamics}, doi = {10.1186/2051-3933-1-6}, year = {2013}, language = {en} } @article{MuellerPoellathMoshammeretal.2009, author = {M{\"u}ller, J{\"o}rg and Poellath, Jakob and Moshammer, Ralf and Schr{\"o}der-Esselbach, Boris}, title = {Predicting the occurrence of Middle Spotted Woodpecker Dendrocopos medius on a regional scale, using forest inventory data}, issn = {0378-1127}, doi = {10.1016/j.foreco.2008.09.023}, year = {2009}, abstract = {The Middle Spotted Woodpecker (Dendrocopos medius) is the bird species which Germany has the greatest global responsibility to protect. It is an umbrella species for the entire assemblage of animals associated with mature broadleaved trees, especially oak. Even though well studied in small to medium scale stands, the validity of habitat suitability analysis for this species in larger forests has not previously been proved. Aim of this study was to test suitability of permanent forest inventory plots for modelling its distribution in a 17,000 ha forest landscape and to derive habitat threshold values as a basis for formulating management guidelines. Based on 150 randomly selected 12.5 ha plots we identified mean age and basal area of oaks as the most important habitat factors using a backward selection logistic model. Internal validation showed an AUC of 0.89 and a R-2(N) of 0.58. Determination of thresholds using maximally selected rank statistics found higher probability of occurrence in stands with a mean age >95 years. Above that age the probability increased again in stands with more than 6.4 m(2) basal area oak/ha. Our results show that widely available forest inventory data can serve as a valuable basis for monitoring the Middle Spotted Woodpecker, either within the framework of the Natura 2000 Network, or more generally in integrated forest management with the aim of providing suitable habitats for the entire assemblage of species on old deciduous trees, especially oak.}, language = {en} } @article{MuellerSchroederEsselbachMueller2009, author = {M{\"u}ller, Daniel and Schr{\"o}der-Esselbach, Boris and M{\"u}ller, J{\"o}rg}, title = {Modelling habitat selection of the cryptic Hazel Grouse Bonasa bonasia in a montane forest}, issn = {0021-8375}, doi = {10.1007/s10336-009-0390-6}, year = {2009}, abstract = {The Hazel Grouse Bonasa bonasia is strongly affected by forest dynamics, and populations in many areas within Europe are declining. As a result of the 'wilding' concept implemented in the National Park Bavarian Forest, this area is one of the refuges for the species in Germany. Even though the effects of prevailing processes make the situation there particularly interesting, no recent investigation about habitat selection in the rapidly changing environment of the national park has been undertaken. We modelled the species-habitat relationship to derive the important habitat features in the national park as well as factors and critical threshold for monitoring, and to evaluate the predictive power of models based on field surveys compared to an analysis of infrared aerial photographs. We conducted our surveys on 49 plots of 25 ha each where Hazel Grouse was recorded and on an equally sized set of plots with no grouse occurrence, and used this dataset to build a predictive habitat-suitability model using logistic regression with backward stepwise variable selection. Habitat heterogeneity, stand structure, presence of mountain ash and willow, root plates, forest aisles, and young broadleaf stands proved to be predictive habitat variables. After internal validation via bootstrapping, our model shows an AUC value of 0.91 and a correct classification rate of 87\%. Considering the methodological difficulties attached to backward selection, we applied Bayesian model averaging as an alternative. This multi-model approach also yielded similar results. To derive simple thresholds for important predictors as a basis for management decisions, we alternatively ran tree-based modelling, which also leads to a very similar selection of predictors. Performance of our different survey approaches was assessed by comparing two independent models with a model including both data resources: one constructed only from field survey data, the other based on data derived from aerial photographs. Models based on field data seem to perform slightly better than those based on aerial photography, but models using both predictor datasets provided the highest predictive accuracy.}, language = {en} } @article{TannebergerFladePreiksaetal.2010, author = {Tanneberger, Franziska and Flade, Martin and Preiksa, Zydrunas and Schr{\"o}der-Esselbach, Boris}, title = {Habitat selection of the globally threatened Aquatic Warbler Acrocephalus paludicola at the western margin of its breeding range and implications for management}, issn = {0019-1019}, doi = {10.1111/j.1474-919X.2010.01016.x}, year = {2010}, abstract = {The globally threatened Aquatic Warbler Acrocephalus paludicola is an umbrella species for fen mires and is at risk of extinction in its westernmost breeding population due to severe habitat loss. We used boosted regression trees to model Aquatic Warbler habitat selection in order to make recommendations for effective management of the last remnant habitats. Habitat data were collected in the years 2004-2006 in all remaining breeding sites in Pomerania (eastern Germany and western Poland) as well as in recently abandoned sites. Models were validated using data from similar Aquatic Warbler habitats in Lithuania. The probability of occurrence of Aquatic Warblers in late May/early June was positively associated with low isolation from other occupied sites, less eutrophic conditions, a high proportion of area mown early in the preceding year, high availability of vegetation 60-70 cm high, high prey abundance and high habitat heterogeneity. Early summer land management is needed in the more productive sites to prevent habitat deterioration by succession to higher and denser vegetation. As this also poses a serious threat to broods, management that creates a mosaic of early and late used patches is recommended to preserve and restore productive Aquatic Warbler sites. In less productive sites, winter mowing can maintain suitable habitat conditions. Aquatic Warbler-friendly land use supports a variety of other threatened plant and animal species typical of fens and sedge meadows and can meet the economic interests of local land users.}, language = {en} } @article{ZurellJeltschDormannetal.2009, author = {Zurell, Damaris and Jeltsch, Florian and Dormann, Carsten F. and Schr{\"o}der-Esselbach, Boris}, title = {Static species distribution models in dynamically changing systems : how good can predictions really be?}, issn = {0906-7590}, doi = {10.1111/j.1600-0587.2009.05810.x}, year = {2009}, abstract = {SDM performance varied for different range dynamics. Prediction accuracies decreased when abrupt range shifts occurred as species were outpaced by the rate of climate change, and increased again when a new equilibrium situation was realised. When ranges contracted, prediction accuracies increased as the absences were predicted well. Far- dispersing species were faster in tracking climate change, and were predicted more accurately by SDMs than short- dispersing species. BRTs mostly outperformed GLMs. The presence of a predator, and the inclusion of its incidence as an environmental predictor, made BRTs and GLMs perform similarly. Results are discussed in light of other studies dealing with effects of ecological traits and processes on SDM performance. Perspectives are given on further advancements of SDMs and for possible interfaces with more mechanistic approaches in order to improve predictions under environmental change.}, language = {en} } @phdthesis{SchroederEsselbach2008, author = {Schr{\"o}der-Esselbach, Boris}, title = {Species in dynamic landscapes : patterns, processes and functions}, pages = {317 S. : graph. Darst. + 1 CD [Beilage]}, year = {2008}, language = {en} } @article{RudnerSchroederEsselbachBiedermannetal.2003, author = {Rudner, Michael and Schr{\"o}der-Esselbach, Boris and Biedermann, Robert and M{\"u}ller, Mark}, title = {Habitat modelling in GIMOLUS - webGIS-based e-learning modules using logistic regression to assess species- habitat relationships}, year = {2003}, language = {en} } @article{SchroederEsselbachAntvogelBonn2003, author = {Schr{\"o}der-Esselbach, Boris and Antvogel, Heike and Bonn, Aletta}, title = {Habitatmodelle f{\"u}r Insekten - am Beispiel der Carabidengemeinschaft (Coleoptera, Carabidae) eines Auwaldes an der Elbe}, year = {2003}, language = {de} } @article{ReinekingSchroederEsselbach2003, author = {Reineking, Bj{\"o}rn and Schr{\"o}der-Esselbach, Boris}, title = {Computer-intensive methods in the analysis of species-habitat relationships}, year = {2003}, language = {en} } @article{RudnerSchroederEsselbachBiedermannetal.2003, author = {Rudner, Michael and Schr{\"o}der-Esselbach, Boris and Biedermann, Robert and Kleyer, Michael}, title = {Habitatmodellierung in der Landschafts{\"o}kologie}, isbn = {3-87907-417-8}, year = {2003}, abstract = {Das Teilprojekt Landschafts- und Aut{\"o}kologie (L{\"O}K) hat den Schwerpunkt auf die Erarbeitung einer e- Learning-Einheit zur Habitatmodellierung im allgemeinen und dem Verfahren der logistischen Regression im speziellen gelegt. In den sechs Lernmodulen der Lerneinheit werden alle f{\"u}r eine erfolgreiche Modellierung der Habitateignung erforderlichen Arbeitsschritte sequentiell behandelt. Die wesentlichen Schritte werden mit interaktiven Aufgaben vertieft, in welchen an entscheidenden Stellen WebGIS eingesetzt wird. Der r{\"a}umliche Bezug wird in der Regel {\"u}ber WebGIS- Anwendungen zu einer virtuellen Landschaft hergestellt, die in das GIMOLUS-System integriert ist. Die erforderlichen Datens{\"a}tze f{\"u}r die Analyse von Art-Habitat- Beziehungen werden bereitgestellt oder k{\"o}nnen interaktiv aus der virtuellen Landschaft erzeugt werden.}, language = {de} } @article{OppelSchaeferSchmidtetal.2004, author = {Oppel, Steffen and Sch{\"a}fer, Martin H. and Schmidt, Veronika and Schr{\"o}der-Esselbach, Boris}, title = {How much suitable habitat is left for the last known population of the Pale-Headed Brush-Finch?}, year = {2004}, abstract = {The Pale-headed Brush-Finch (Atlapetes pallidiceps) is threatened with extinction due to loss of habitat. The only remnant population consists of 30-35 pairs and is confined to a single valley in the Andes of southwestern Ecuador. We investigated the habitat types used by this species in order to quantify the amount of available suitable habitat. The species used semiopen habitat types featuring a mosaic of dense scrub 2-4 In tall and grassy patches. Low continuous scrub was also used in larger proportions than on average available; forest and open country were not included in territories. Suitable habitat covered 28\% of the area, and 16\% was still available for new brush-finch territories. We identified a minimum of seven coherent patches that could support eight further pairs of the species. The valley can thus potentially support 40-50 pairs. The occupied habitat as described here should serve as a guideline in searching for new habitat}, language = {en} } @article{OppelSchaeferSchmidtetal.2004, author = {Oppel, Steffen and Sch{\"a}fer, Martin H. and Schmidt, Veronika and Schr{\"o}der-Esselbach, Boris}, title = {Cowbird parasitism of the Pale-headed Brush-Finch Atlapetes pallidiceps: implications for conservation and managemen}, year = {2004}, language = {en} } @article{OppelSchaeferSchmidtetal.2004, author = {Oppel, Steffen and Sch{\"a}fer, Martin H. and Schmidt, Veronika and Schr{\"o}der-Esselbach, Boris}, title = {Habitat selection by the Pale-headed brush-finch (Atlapetes pallidiceps) in southern Ecuador: implications for conservation}, year = {2004}, language = {en} } @article{SchroederEsselbachRudnerBiedermannetal.2004, author = {Schr{\"o}der-Esselbach, Boris and Rudner, Michael and Biedermann, Robert and Kleyer, Michael}, title = {{\"O}kologische \& sozio-{\"o}konomische Bewertung von Managementsystemen f{\"u}r die Offenhaltung von Landschaften - ein integriertes Landschaftsmodell}, year = {2004}, language = {de} } @article{SchroederEsselbach2004, author = {Schr{\"o}der-Esselbach, Boris}, title = {{\"U}berblick zum Block "Statistische Habitatmodelle - Status quo \& aktuelle Entwicklungen"}, year = {2004}, language = {de} } @article{ReinekingSchroederEsselbach2004, author = {Reineking, Bj{\"o}rn and Schr{\"o}der-Esselbach, Boris}, title = {G{\"u}temaße f{\"u}r Habitatmodelle}, year = {2004}, language = {de} } @article{KleyerSchroederEsselbachBiedermannetal.2004, author = {Kleyer, Michael and Schr{\"o}der-Esselbach, Boris and Biedermann, Robert and Rudner, Michael and Fritzsch, K. and K{\"u}hner, A. and Poschlod, P. and Kahmen, S. and Tackenberg, O. and Talmon, E. and Poethke, H.-J. and Obermaier, E. and Hein, S. and Hinsch, M. and Henle, K. and Settele, Josef and Binzenh{\"o}fer, Birgit and Pfeifer, A. and K{\"o}gl, H.}, title = {Freie Beweidung mit geringer Besatzdichte und Fr{\"a}sen als alternative Verfahren zur Pflege von Magerrasen}, issn = {0341-7026}, year = {2004}, language = {de} } @article{ReinekingSchroederEsselbach2004, author = {Reineking, Bj{\"o}rn and Schr{\"o}der-Esselbach, Boris}, title = {Variablenselektion : Strategien der Modellbildung in der Habitatmodellierung}, year = {2004}, language = {de} } @article{PepplerLisbachSchroederEsselbach2004, author = {Peppler-Lisbach, Cord and Schr{\"o}der-Esselbach, Boris}, title = {Predicting the species composition of Nardus stricta communities by logistic regression modelling}, year = {2004}, language = {en} } @article{RudnerSchroederEsselbachBiedermannetal.2004, author = {Rudner, Michael and Schr{\"o}der-Esselbach, Boris and Biedermann, Robert and Kleyer, Michael}, title = {Habitatmodellierung in GIMOLUS : e-Learning Module zur Verwendung der logistischen Regression zur Analyse der Art-Umwelt-Beziehungen}, year = {2004}, language = {de} } @article{SchroederEsselbachReineking2004, author = {Schr{\"o}der-Esselbach, Boris and Reineking, Bj{\"o}rn}, title = {Validierung von Habitatmodellen}, year = {2004}, language = {de} } @article{ReinekingSchroederEsselbach2006, author = {Reineking, Bj{\"o}rn and Schr{\"o}der-Esselbach, Boris}, title = {Constrain to perform : regularization of habitat models}, issn = {0304-3800}, doi = {10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2005.10.003}, year = {2006}, abstract = {Predictive habitat models are an important tool for ecological research and conservation. A major cause of unreliable models is excessive model complexity, and regularization methods aim to improve the predictive performance by adequately constraining model complexity. We compare three regularization methods for logistic regression: variable selection, lasso, and ridge. They differ in the way model complexity is measured: variable selection uses the number of estimated parameters, the lasso uses the sum of the absolute values of the parameter estimates, and the ridge uses the sum of the squared values of the parameter estimates. We performed a simulation study with environmental data of a real landscape and artificial species occupancy data. We investigated the effect of three factors on relative model performance: (1) the number of parameters (16, 10, 6, 2) in the 'true' model that determined the distribution of the artificial species, (2) the prevalence, i.e. the proportion of sites occupied by the species, and (3) the sample size (measured in events per variable, EPV). Regularization improved model discrimination and calibration. However, no regularization method performed best under all circumstances: the ridge generally performed best in the 16-parameter scenario. The lasso generally performed best in the 10-parameter scenario. Variable selection with AIC was best at large sample sizes (EPV >= 10) when less than half of the variables influenced the species distribution. However, at low sample sizes (EPV < 10), ridge and lasso always performed best, regardless of the parameter scenario or prevalence. Overall, calibration was best in ridge models. Other methods showed overconfidence, particularly at low sample sizes. The percentage of correctly identified models was low for both lasso and variable selection. Variable selection should be used with caution. Although it can produce the best performing models under certain conditions, these situations are difficult to infer from the data. Ridge and lasso are risk-averse model strategies that can be expected to perform well under a wide range of underlying species-habitat relationships, particularly at small sample sizes.}, language = {en} } @article{PagelFritzschBiedermannetal.2008, author = {Pagel, J{\"o}rn and Fritzsch, Katrin and Biedermann, Robert and Schr{\"o}der-Esselbach, Boris}, title = {Annual plants under cyclic disturbance regime : better understanding through model aggregation}, issn = {1051-0761}, year = {2008}, abstract = {In their application for conservation ecology, 'classical' analytical models and individual-based simulation models (IBMs) both entail their specific strengths and weaknesses, either in providing a detailed and realistic representation of processes or in regard to a comprehensive model analysis. This well-known dilemma may be resolved by the combination of both approaches when tackling certain problems of conservation ecology. Following this idea, we present the complementary use of both an IBM and a matrix population model in a case study on grassland conservation management. First, we develop a spatially explicit IBM to simulate the long-term response of the annual plant Thlaspi perfoliatum (Brassicaceae), claspleaf pennycress, to different management schemes (annual mowing vs. infrequent rototilling) based on field experiments. In order to complement the simulation results by further analyses, we aggregate the IBM to a spatially nonexplicit deterministic matrix population model. Within the periodic environment created by management regimes, population dynamics are described by periodic products of annual transition matrices. Such periodic matrix products provide a very conclusive framework to study the responses of species to different management return intervals. Thus, using tools of matrix model analysis (e.g., loop analysis), we can both identify dormancy within the age-structured seed bank as the pivotal strategy for persistence under cyclic disturbance regimes and reveal crucial thresholds in some less certain parameters. Results of matrix model analyses are therefore successfully tested by comparing their results to the respective IBM simulations. Their implications for an enhanced scientific basis for management decisions are discussed as well as some general benefits and limitations of the use of aggregating modeling approaches in conservation.}, language = {en} } @inproceedings{MaerkerSchroederEsselbachCapolongoetal.2006, author = {M{\"a}rker, Michael and Schr{\"o}der-Esselbach, Boris and Capolongo, Domenico and Bentivenga, Mario}, title = {Geomorphological and pedological processes in badland areas of Southern Italy and their interaction with Mediterranean vegetation}, url = {http://nbn-resolving.de/urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus-7288}, year = {2006}, abstract = {Interdisziplin{\"a}res Zentrum f{\"u}r Musterdynamik und Angewandte Fernerkundung Workshop vom 9. - 10. Februar 2006}, language = {en} } @inproceedings{JeltschSchroederEsselbachBlaumetal.2006, author = {Jeltsch, Florian and Schr{\"o}der-Esselbach, Boris and Blaum, Niels and Badeck, Franz-Werner}, title = {Einsatz der Fernerkundung in der {\"O}kologie}, url = {http://nbn-resolving.de/urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus-7075}, year = {2006}, abstract = {Interdisziplin{\"a}res Zentrum f{\"u}r Musterdynamik und Angewandte Fernerkundung Workshop vom 9. - 10. Februar 2006}, language = {de} }