@article{BoergensGuentnerDobslawetal.2020,
  author    = {Boergens, Eva and G{\"u}ntner, Andreas and Dobslaw, Henryk and Dahle, Christoph},
  title     = {Quantifying the Central European droughts in 2018 and 2019 with GRACE Follow-On},
  series = {Geophysical research letters : GRL},
  volume    = {47},
  journal   = {Geophysical research letters : GRL},
  number    = {14},
  publisher = {American Geophysical Union},
  address   = {Washington, DC},
  issn      = {0094-8276},
  doi       = {10.1029/2020GL087285},
  pages     = {9},
  year      = {2020},
  abstract  = {The GRACE-FO satellites launched in May 2018 are able to quantify the water mass deficit in Central Europe during the two consecutive summer droughts of 2018 and 2019. Relative to the long-term climatology, the water mass deficits were-112 +/- 10.5 Gt in 2018 and-145 +/- 12 Gt in 2019. These deficits are 73\% and 94\% of the mean amplitude of seasonal water storage variations, which is so severe that a recovery cannot be expected within 1 year. The water deficits in 2018 and 2019 are the largest in the whole GRACE and GRACE-FO time span. Globally, the data do not show an offset between the two missions, which proves the successful continuation of GRACE by GRACE-FO and thus the reliability of the observed extreme events in Central Europe. This allows for a joint assessment of the four Central European droughts in 2003, 2015, 2018, and 2019 in terms of total water storage deficits.},
  language  = {en}
}
@article{GanguliPaprotnyHasanetal.2020,
  author    = {Ganguli, Poulomi and Paprotny, Dominik and Hasan, Mehedi and G{\"u}ntner, Andreas and Merz, Bruno},
  title     = {Projected changes in compound flood hazard from riverine and coastal floods in northwestern Europe},
  series = {Earth's future},
  volume    = {8},
  journal   = {Earth's future},
  number    = {11},
  publisher = {Wiley-Blackwell},
  address   = {Hoboken, NJ},
  issn      = {2328-4277},
  doi       = {10.1029/2020EF001752},
  pages     = {19},
  year      = {2020},
  abstract  = {Compound flooding in coastal regions, that is, the simultaneous or successive occurrence of high sea levels and high river flows, is expected to increase in a warmer world. To date, however, there is no robust evidence on projected changes in compound flooding for northwestern Europe. We combine projected storm surges and river floods with probabilistic, localized relative sea-level rise (SLR) scenarios to assess the future compound flood hazard over northwestern coastal Europe in the high (RCP8.5) emission scenario. We use high-resolution, dynamically downscaled regional climate models (RCM) to drive a storm surge model and a hydrological model, and analyze the joint occurrence of high coastal water levels and associated river peaks in a multivariate copula-based approach. The RCM-forced multimodel mean reasonably represents the observed spatial pattern of the dependence strength between annual maxima surge and peak river discharge, although substantial discrepancies exist between observed and simulated dependence strength. All models overestimate the dependence strength, possibly due to limitations in model parameterizations. This bias affects compound flood hazard estimates and requires further investigation. While our results suggest decreasing compound flood hazard over the majority of sites by 2050s (2040-2069) compared to the reference period (1985-2005), an increase in projected compound flood hazard is limited to around 34\% of the sites. Further, we show the substantial role of SLR, a driver of compound floods, which has frequently been neglected. Our findings highlight the need to be aware of the limitations of the current generation of Earth system models in simulating coastal compound floods.},
  language  = {en}
}