@article{KothaWeatherillBindietal.2022, author = {Kotha, Sreeram Reddy and Weatherill, Graeme and Bindi, Dino and Cotton, Fabrice}, title = {Near-source magnitude scaling of spectral accelerations}, series = {Bulletin of earthquake engineering : official publication of the European Association for Earthquake Engineering}, volume = {20}, journal = {Bulletin of earthquake engineering : official publication of the European Association for Earthquake Engineering}, number = {3}, publisher = {Springer}, address = {Dordrecht}, issn = {1570-761X}, doi = {10.1007/s10518-021-01308-5}, pages = {1343 -- 1370}, year = {2022}, abstract = {Ground-motion models (GMMs) are often used to predict the random distribution of Spectral accelerations (SAs) at a site due to a nearby earthquake. In probabilistic seismic hazard and risk assessment, large earthquakes occurring close to a site are considered as critical scenarios. GMMs are expected to predict realistic SAs with low within-model uncertainty (sigma(mu)) for such rare scenarios. However, the datasets used to regress GMMs are usually deficient of data from critical scenarios. The (Kotha et al., A Regionally Adaptable Ground-Motion Model for Shallow Crustal Earthquakes in Europe Bulletin of Earthquake Engineering 18:4091-4125, 2020) GMM developed from the Engineering strong motion (ESM) dataset was found to predict decreasing short-period SAs with increasing M-W >= M-h = 6.2, and with large sigma(mu) at near-source distances <= 30km. In this study, we updated the parametrisation of the GMM based on analyses of ESM and the Near source strong motion (NESS) datasets. With M-h = 5.7, we could rectify the M-W scaling issue, while also reducing sigma(mu). at M-W >= M-h. We then evaluated the GMM against NESS data, and found that the SAs from a few large, thrust-faulting events in California, New Zealand, Japan, and Mexico are significantly higher than GMM median predictions. However, recordings from these events were mostly made on soft-soil geology, and contain anisotropic pulse-like effects. A more thorough non-ergodic treatment of NESS was not possible because most sites sampled unique events in very diverse tectonic environments. We provide an updated set of GMM coefficients,sigma(mu), and heteroscedastic variance models; while also cautioning against its application for M-W <= 4 in low-moderate seismicity regions without evaluating the homogeneity of M-W estimates between pan-European ESM and regional datasets.}, language = {en} } @misc{RottlerFranckeBuergeretal.2020, author = {Rottler, Erwin and Francke, Till and B{\"u}rger, Gerd and Bronstert, Axel}, title = {Long-term changes in central European river discharge for 1869-2016}, series = {Zweitver{\"o}ffentlichungen der Universit{\"a}t Potsdam : Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe}, journal = {Zweitver{\"o}ffentlichungen der Universit{\"a}t Potsdam : Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe}, number = {4}, issn = {1866-8372}, doi = {10.25932/publishup-51776}, url = {http://nbn-resolving.de/urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-517763}, pages = {22}, year = {2020}, abstract = {Recent climatic changes have the potential to severely alter river runoff, particularly in snow-dominated river basins. Effects of changing snow covers superimpose with changes in precipitation and anthropogenic modifications of the watershed and river network. In the attempt to identify and disentangle long-term effects of different mechanisms, we employ a set of analytical tools to extract long-term changes in river runoff at high resolution. We combine quantile sampling with moving average trend statistics and empirical mode decomposition and apply these tools to discharge data recorded along rivers with nival, pluvial and mixed flow regimes as well as temperature and precipitation data covering the time frame 1869-2016. With a focus on central Europe, we analyse the long-term impact of snow cover and precipitation changes along with their interaction with reservoir constructions. Our results show that runoff seasonality of snow-dominated rivers decreases. Runoff increases in winter and spring, while discharge decreases in summer and at the beginning of autumn. We attribute this redistribution of annual flow mainly to reservoir constructions in the Alpine ridge. During the course of the last century, large fractions of the Alpine rivers were dammed to produce hydropower. In recent decades, runoff changes induced by reservoir constructions seem to overlap with changes in snow cover. We suggest that Alpine signals propagate downstream and affect runoff far outside the Alpine area in river segments with mixed flow regimes. Furthermore, our results hint at more (intense) rain-fall in recent decades. Detected increases in high discharge can be traced back to corresponding changes in precipitation.}, language = {en} } @phdthesis{Pregla2023, author = {Pregla, Dorothea}, title = {Variability in sentence processing performance in German people with aphasia and unimpaired German native speakers}, doi = {10.25932/publishup-61420}, url = {http://nbn-resolving.de/urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-614201}, school = {Universit{\"a}t Potsdam}, pages = {171}, year = {2023}, abstract = {Individuals with aphasia vary in the speed and accuracy they perform sentence comprehension tasks. Previous results indicate that the performance patterns of individuals with aphasia vary between tasks (e.g., Caplan, DeDe, \& Michaud, 2006; Caplan, Michaud, \& Hufford, 2013a). Similarly, it has been found that the comprehension performance of individuals with aphasia varies between homogeneous test sentences within and between sessions (e.g., McNeil, Hageman, \& Matthews, 2005). These studies ascribed the variability in the performance of individuals with aphasia to random noise. This conclusion would be in line with an influential theory on sentence comprehension in aphasia, the resource reduction hypothesis (Caplan, 2012). However, previous studies did not directly compare variability in language-impaired and language-unimpaired adults. Thus, it is still unclear how the variability in sentence comprehension differs between individuals with and without aphasia. Furthermore, the previous studies were exclusively carried out in English. Therefore, the findings on variability in sentence processing in English still need to be replicated in a different language. This dissertation aims to give a systematic overview of the patterns of variability in sentence comprehension performance in aphasia in German and, based on this overview, to put the resource reduction hypothesis to the test. In order to reach the first aim, variability was considered on three different dimensions (persons, measures, and occasions) following the classification by Hultsch, Strauss, Hunter, and MacDonald (2011). At the dimension of persons, the thesis compared the performance of individuals with aphasia and language-unimpaired adults. At the dimension of measures, this work explored the performance across different sentence comprehension tasks (object manipulation, sentence-picture matching). Finally, at the dimension of occasions, this work compared the performance in each task between two test sessions. Several methods were combined to study variability to gain a large and diverse database. In addition to the offline comprehension tasks, the self-paced-listening paradigm and the visual world eye-tracking paradigm were used in this work. The findings are in line with the previous results. As in the previous studies, variability in sentence comprehension in individuals with aphasia emerged between test sessions and between tasks. Additionally, it was possible to characterize the variability further using hierarchical Bayesian models. For individuals with aphasia, it was shown that both between-task and between-session variability are unsystematic. In contrast to that, language-unimpaired individuals exhibited systematic differences between measures and between sessions. However, these systematic differences occurred only in the offline tasks. Hence, variability in sentence comprehension differed between language-impaired and language-unimpaired adults, and this difference could be narrowed down to the offline measures. Based on this overview of the patterns of variability, the resource reduction hypothesis was evaluated. According to the hypothesis, the variability in the performance of individuals with aphasia can be ascribed to random fluctuations in the resources available for sentence processing. Given that the performance of the individuals with aphasia varied unsystematically, the results support the resource reduction hypothesis. Furthermore, the thesis proposes that the differences in variability between language-impaired and language-unimpaired adults can also be explained by the resource reduction hypothesis. More specifically, it is suggested that the systematic changes in the performance of language-unimpaired adults are due to decreasing fluctuations in available processing resources. In parallel, the unsystematic variability in the performance of individuals with aphasia could be due to constant fluctuations in available processing resources. In conclusion, the systematic investigation of variability contributes to a better understanding of language processing in aphasia and thus enriches aphasia research.}, language = {en} } @article{TrounsonBuschCollieretal.2020, author = {Trounson, Karl M. and Busch, Aglaja and Collier, Neil French and Robertson, Samuel}, title = {Effects of acute wearable resistance loading on overground running lower body kinematics}, series = {PLoS one}, volume = {15}, journal = {PLoS one}, number = {12}, publisher = {PLoS}, address = {San Francisco, California, US}, issn = {1932-6203}, doi = {10.1371/journal.pone.0244361}, pages = {19}, year = {2020}, abstract = {Field-based sports require athletes to run sub-maximally over significant distances, often while contending with dynamic perturbations to preferred coordination patterns. The ability to adapt movement to maintain performance under such perturbations appears to be trainable through exposure to task variability, which encourages movement variability. The aim of the present study was to investigate the extent to which various wearable resistance loading magnitudes alter coordination and induce movement variability during running. To investigate this, 14 participants (three female and 11 male) performed 10 sub-maximal velocity shuttle runs with either no weight, 1\%, 3\%, or 5\% of body weight attached to the lower limbs. Sagittal plane lower limb joint kinematics from one complete stride cycle in each run were assessed using functional data analysis techniques, both across the participant group and within-individuals. At the group-level, decreases in ankle plantarflexion following toe-off were evident in the 3\% and 5\% conditions, while increased knee flexion occurred during weight acceptance in the 5\% condition compared with unloaded running. At the individual-level, between-run joint angle profiles varied, with six participants exhibiting increased joint angle variability in one or more loading conditions compared with unloaded running. Loading of 5\% decreased between-run ankle joint variability among two individuals, likely in accordance with the need to manage increased system load or the novelty of the task. In terms of joint coordination, the most considerable alterations to coordination occurred in the 5\% loading condition at the hip-knee joint pair, however, only a minority of participants exhibited this tendency. Coaches should prescribe wearable resistance individually to perturb preferred coordination patterns and encourage movement variability without loading to the extent that movement options become limited.}, language = {en} } @article{AuhagenUth2022, author = {Auhagen, Christopher Patrick and Uth, Melanie}, title = {Variation of relative complementizers in Yucatecan Spanish}, series = {Languages}, volume = {7}, journal = {Languages}, number = {4}, publisher = {MDPI}, address = {Basel}, issn = {2226-471X}, doi = {10.3390/languages7040279}, pages = {16}, year = {2022}, abstract = {The starting point of this article is the occurrence of determiner-less and bare que relative complementizers like (en) que, '(in) that', instead of (en) el que, '(in) which', in Yucatecan Spanish (southeast Mexico). While reference grammars treat complementizers with a determiner as the standard option, previous diachronic research has shown that determiner-less complementizers actually predate relative complementizers with a determiner. Additionally, Yucatecan Spanish has been in long-standing contact with Yucatec Maya. Relative complementation in Yucatec Maya differs from that in Spanish (at least) in that the non-complex complementizer tu'ux ('where') is generally the only option for locative complementation. The paper explores monolingual and bilingual data from Yucatecan Spanish to discuss the question whether the determiner-less and bare que relative complementizers in our data constitute a historic remnant or a dialectal recast, possibly (but not necessarily) due to language contact. Although our pilot study may not answer these far-reaching questions, it does reveal two separate, but intertwined developments: (i) a generally increased rate of bare que relative complementation, across both monolingual speakers of Spanish and Spanish Maya bilinguals, compared to other Spanish varieties, and (ii) a preference for donde at the cost of other locative complementizer constructions in the bilingual group. Our analysis thus reveals intriguing differences between the complementizer preferences of monolingual and bilingual speakers, suggesting that different variational patterns caused by different (socio-)linguistic factors can co-develop in parallel in one and the [same] region.}, language = {en} } @misc{AuhagenUth2022, author = {Auhagen, Christopher Patrick and Uth, Melanie}, title = {Variation of relative complementizers in Yucatecan Spanish}, series = {Zweitver{\"o}ffentlichungen der Universit{\"a}t Potsdam : Philosophische Reihe}, journal = {Zweitver{\"o}ffentlichungen der Universit{\"a}t Potsdam : Philosophische Reihe}, issn = {1866-8380}, doi = {10.25932/publishup-58437}, url = {http://nbn-resolving.de/urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-584375}, pages = {18}, year = {2022}, abstract = {The starting point of this article is the occurrence of determiner-less and bare que relative complementizers like (en) que, '(in) that', instead of (en) el que, '(in) which', in Yucatecan Spanish (southeast Mexico). While reference grammars treat complementizers with a determiner as the standard option, previous diachronic research has shown that determiner-less complementizers actually predate relative complementizers with a determiner. Additionally, Yucatecan Spanish has been in long-standing contact with Yucatec Maya. Relative complementation in Yucatec Maya differs from that in Spanish (at least) in that the non-complex complementizer tu'ux ('where') is generally the only option for locative complementation. The paper explores monolingual and bilingual data from Yucatecan Spanish to discuss the question whether the determiner-less and bare que relative complementizers in our data constitute a historic remnant or a dialectal recast, possibly (but not necessarily) due to language contact. Although our pilot study may not answer these far-reaching questions, it does reveal two separate, but intertwined developments: (i) a generally increased rate of bare que relative complementation, across both monolingual speakers of Spanish and Spanish Maya bilinguals, compared to other Spanish varieties, and (ii) a preference for donde at the cost of other locative complementizer constructions in the bilingual group. Our analysis thus reveals intriguing differences between the complementizer preferences of monolingual and bilingual speakers, suggesting that different variational patterns caused by different (socio-)linguistic factors can co-develop in parallel in one and the [same] region.}, language = {en} } @article{RottlerFranckeBuergeretal.2020, author = {Rottler, Erwin and Francke, Till and B{\"u}rger, Gerd and Bronstert, Axel}, title = {Long-term changes in central European river discharge for 1869-2016}, series = {Hydrology and Earth System Sciences}, volume = {24}, journal = {Hydrology and Earth System Sciences}, number = {4}, publisher = {Copernicus}, address = {G{\"o}ttingen}, issn = {1027-5606}, doi = {10.5194/hess-24-1721-2020}, pages = {1721 -- 1740}, year = {2020}, abstract = {Recent climatic changes have the potential to severely alter river runoff, particularly in snow-dominated river basins. Effects of changing snow covers superimpose with changes in precipitation and anthropogenic modifications of the watershed and river network. In the attempt to identify and disentangle long-term effects of different mechanisms, we employ a set of analytical tools to extract long-term changes in river runoff at high resolution. We combine quantile sampling with moving average trend statistics and empirical mode decomposition and apply these tools to discharge data recorded along rivers with nival, pluvial and mixed flow regimes as well as temperature and precipitation data covering the time frame 1869-2016. With a focus on central Europe, we analyse the long-term impact of snow cover and precipitation changes along with their interaction with reservoir constructions. Our results show that runoff seasonality of snow-dominated rivers decreases. Runoff increases in winter and spring, while discharge decreases in summer and at the beginning of autumn. We attribute this redistribution of annual flow mainly to reservoir constructions in the Alpine ridge. During the course of the last century, large fractions of the Alpine rivers were dammed to produce hydropower. In recent decades, runoff changes induced by reservoir constructions seem to overlap with changes in snow cover. We suggest that Alpine signals propagate downstream and affect runoff far outside the Alpine area in river segments with mixed flow regimes. Furthermore, our results hint at more (intense) rain-fall in recent decades. Detected increases in high discharge can be traced back to corresponding changes in precipitation.}, language = {en} } @article{HuttenlauchBeerHanneKlothetal.2021, author = {Huttenlauch, Clara and Beer, Carola de and Hanne-Kloth, Sandra and Wartenburger, Isabell}, title = {Production of prosodic cues in coordinate name sequences addressing varying interlocutors}, series = {Laboratory phonology}, volume = {12}, journal = {Laboratory phonology}, number = {1}, publisher = {Ubiquity Press}, address = {London}, issn = {1868-6346}, doi = {10.5334/labphon.221}, pages = {31}, year = {2021}, abstract = {Prosodic boundaries can be used to disambiguate the syntactic structure of coordinated name sequences (coordinates). To answer the question whether disambiguating prosody is produced in a situationally dependent or independent manner and to contribute to our understanding of the nature of the prosody-syntax link, we systematically explored variability in the prosody of boundary productions of coordinates evoked by different contextual settings in a referential communication task. Our analysis focused on prosodic boundaries produced to distinguish sequences with different syntactic structures (i.e., with or without internal grouping of the constituents). In German, these prosodic boundaries are indicated by three major prosodic cues: f0-range, final lengthening, and pause. In line with the Proximity/Anti-Proximity principle of the syntax-prosody model by Kentner and Fery (2013), speakers clearly use all three cues for constituent grouping and prosodically mark groups within and at their right boundary, indicating that prosodic phrasing is not a local phenomenon. Intra-individually, we found a rather stable prosodic pattern across contexts. However, inter-individually speakers differed from each other with respect to the prosodic cue combinations that they (consistently) used to mark the boundaries. Overall, our data speak in favour of a close link between syntax and prosody and for situational independence of disambiguating prosody.}, language = {en} } @article{UygunClahsen2021, author = {Uygun, Serkan and Clahsen, Harald}, title = {Morphological processing in heritage speakers}, series = {Bilingualism : language and cognition}, volume = {24}, journal = {Bilingualism : language and cognition}, number = {3}, publisher = {Cambridge Univ. Press}, address = {Cambridge}, issn = {1366-7289}, doi = {10.1017/S1366728920000577}, pages = {415 -- 426}, year = {2021}, abstract = {Previous research has shown that heritage speakers struggle with inflectional morphology. 'Limitations of online resources' for processing a non-dominant language has been claimed as one possible reason for these difficulties. To date, however, there is very little experimental evidence on real-time language processing in heritage speakers. Here we report results from a masked priming experiment with 97 bilingual (Turkish/German) heritage speakers and a control group of 40 non-heritage speakers of Turkish examining regular and irregular forms of the Turkish aorist. We found that, for the regular aorist, heritage speakers use the same morphological decomposition mechanism ('affix stripping') as control speakers, whereas for processing irregularly inflected forms they exhibited more variability (i.e., less homogeneous performance) than the control group. Heritage speakers also demonstrated semantic priming effects. At a more general level, these results indicate that heritage speakers draw on multiple sources of information for recognizing morphologically complex words.}, language = {en} } @article{BuerkiFoschiniMadec2022, author = {B{\"u}rki-Foschini, Audrey Damaris and Madec, Sylvain}, title = {Picture-Word interference in language production studies}, series = {Journal of experimental psychology : Learning, memory, and cognition}, volume = {48}, journal = {Journal of experimental psychology : Learning, memory, and cognition}, number = {7}, publisher = {American Psychological Association}, address = {Washington}, issn = {0278-7393}, doi = {10.1037/xlm0001098}, pages = {1019 -- 1046}, year = {2022}, abstract = {The picture-word interference paradigm (participants name target pictures while ignoring distractor words) is often used to model the planning processes involved in word production. The participants' naming times are delayed in the presence of a distractor (general interference). The size of this effect depends on the relationship between the target and distractor words. Distractors of the same semantic category create more interference (semantic interference), and distractors overlapping in phonology create less interference (phonological facilitation). The present study examined the relationships between these experimental effects, processing times, and attention in order to better understand the cognitive processes underlying participants' behavior in this paradigm. Participants named pictures with a superimposed line of Xs, semantically related distractors, phonologically related distractors, or unrelated distractors. General interference, semantic interference, and phonological facilitation effects were replicated. Distributional analyses revealed that general and semantic interference effects increase with naming times, while phonological facilitation decreases. The phonological facilitation and semantic interference effects were found to depend on the synchronicity in processing times between the planning of the picture's name and the processing of the distractor word. Finally, electroencephalographic power in the alpha band before stimulus onset varied with the position of the trial in the experiment and with repetition but did not predict the size of interference/facilitation effects. Taken together, these results suggest that experimental effects in the picture-word interference paradigm depend on processing times to both the target word and distractor word and that distributional patterns could partly reflect this dependency.}, language = {en} } @article{MummCzernitzkiBentsetal.2017, author = {Mumm, Rebekka and Czernitzki, Anna-Franziska and Bents, Dominik and Musalek, Martin}, title = {Socioeconomic situation and growth in infants and juveniles}, series = {Anthropologischer Anzeiger : journal of biological and clinical anthropology ; Mitteilungsorgan der Gesellschaft f{\"u}r Anthropologie}, volume = {74}, journal = {Anthropologischer Anzeiger : journal of biological and clinical anthropology ; Mitteilungsorgan der Gesellschaft f{\"u}r Anthropologie}, publisher = {Schweizerbart}, address = {Stuttgart}, issn = {0003-5548}, doi = {10.1127/anthranz/2017/0706}, pages = {101 -- 107}, year = {2017}, abstract = {Background: Physical growth of children and adolescents depends on the interaction of genetic and environmental factors e.g. diet and living conditions. Aim: We aim to discuss the influence of socioeconomic situation, using income inequality and GDP per capita as indicators, on body height, body weight and the variability of height and weight in infants and juveniles. Material and methods: We re-analyzed data from 439 growth studies on height and weight published during the last 35 years. We added year-and country-matched GDP per capita (in current US\$) and the Gini coefficient for each study. The data were divided into two age groups: infants (age 2) and juveniles (age 7). We used Pearson correlation and principal component analysis to investigate the data. Results: Gini coefficient negatively correlated with body height and body weight in infants and juveniles. GDP per capita showed a positive correlation with height and weight in both age groups. In infants the standard deviation of height increases with increasing Gini coefficient. The opposite is true for juveniles. A correlation of weight variability and socioeconomic indicators is absent in infants. In juveniles the variability of weight increases with declining Gini coefficient and increasing logGDP per capita. Discussion: Poverty and income inequality are generally associated with poor growth in height and weight. The analysis of the within-population height and weight variations however, shows that the associations between wealth, income, and anthropometric parameters are very complex and cannot be explained by common wisdom. They point towards an independent regulation of height and weight.}, language = {en} } @article{SchmidtGertenHintzeetal.2018, author = {Schmidt, Silke Regina and Gerten, Dieter and Hintze, Thomas and Lischeid, Gunnar and Livingstone, David M. and Adrian, Rita}, title = {Temporal and spatial scales of water temperature variability as an indicator for mixing in a polymictic lake}, series = {Inland waters : journal of the International Society of Limnology}, volume = {8}, journal = {Inland waters : journal of the International Society of Limnology}, number = {1}, publisher = {Routledge, Taylor \& Francis Group}, address = {Abingdon}, issn = {2044-2041}, doi = {10.1080/20442041.2018.1429067}, pages = {82 -- 95}, year = {2018}, abstract = {We applied coarse spectral analysis to more than 2 decades of daily near-surface water temperature (WT) measurements from Muggelsee, a shallow polymictic lake in Germany, to systematically characterize patterns in WT variability from daily to yearly temporal scales. Comparison of WT with local air temperature indicates that the WT variability patterns are likely attributable to both meteorological forcing and internal lake dynamics. We identified seasonal patterns of WT variability and showed that WT variability increases with increasing Schmidt stability, decreasing Lake number and decreasing ice cover duration, and is higher near the shore than in open water. We introduced the slope of WT spectra as an indicator for the degree of lake mixing to help explain the identified temporal and spatial scales of WT variability. The explanatory power of this indicator in other lakes with different mixing regimes remains to be established.}, language = {en} } @misc{ZimmermannStoofLeichsenringKruseetal.2020, author = {Zimmermann, Heike Hildegard and Stoof-Leichsenring, Kathleen Rosemarie and Kruse, Stefan and M{\"u}ller, Juliane and Stein, Ruediger and Tiedemann, Ralf and Herzschuh, Ulrike}, title = {Changes in the composition of marine and sea-ice diatoms derived from sedimentary ancient DNA of the eastern Fram Strait over the past 30 000 years}, series = {Postprints der Universit{\"a}t Potsdam : Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe}, journal = {Postprints der Universit{\"a}t Potsdam : Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe}, number = {5}, issn = {1866-8372}, doi = {10.25932/publishup-52515}, url = {http://nbn-resolving.de/urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-525154}, pages = {18}, year = {2020}, abstract = {The Fram Strait is an area with a relatively low and irregular distribution of diatom microfossils in surface sediments, and thus microfossil records are scarce, rarely exceed the Holocene, and contain sparse information about past richness and taxonomic composition. These attributes make the Fram Strait an ideal study site to test the utility of sedimentary ancient DNA (sedaDNA) metabarcoding. Amplifying a short, partial rbcL marker from samples of sediment core MSM05/5-712-2 resulted in 95.7 \% of our sequences being assigned to diatoms across 18 different families, with 38.6 \% of them being resolved to species and 25.8 \% to genus level. Independent replicates show a high similarity of PCR products, especially in the oldest samples. Diatom sedaDNA richness is highest in the Late Weichselian and lowest in Mid- and Late Holocene samples. Taxonomic composition is dominated by cold-water and sea-ice-associated diatoms and suggests several reorganisations - after the Last Glacial Maximum, after the Younger Dryas, and after the Early and after the Mid-Holocene. Different sequences assigned to, amongst others, Chaetoceros socialis indicate the detectability of intra-specific diversity using sedaDNA. We detect no clear pattern between our diatom sedaDNA record and the previously published IP25 record of this core, although proportions of pennate diatoms increase with higher IP25 concentrations and proportions of Nitzschia cf. frigida exceeding 2 \% of the assemblage point towards past sea-ice presence.}, language = {en} } @article{ZimmermannStoofLeichsenringKruseetal.2020, author = {Zimmermann, Heike Hildegard and Stoof-Leichsenring, Kathleen Rosemarie and Kruse, Stefan and M{\"u}ller, Juliane and Stein, Ruediger and Tiedemann, Ralf and Herzschuh, Ulrike}, title = {Changes in the composition of marine and sea-ice diatoms derived from sedimentary ancient DNA of the eastern Fram Strait over the past 30 000 years}, series = {Ocean Science}, volume = {16}, journal = {Ocean Science}, number = {5}, publisher = {Springer}, address = {Tokyo}, pages = {16}, year = {2020}, abstract = {The Fram Strait is an area with a relatively low and irregular distribution of diatom microfossils in surface sediments, and thus microfossil records are scarce, rarely exceed the Holocene, and contain sparse information about past richness and taxonomic composition. These attributes make the Fram Strait an ideal study site to test the utility of sedimentary ancient DNA (sedaDNA) metabarcoding. Amplifying a short, partial rbcL marker from samples of sediment core MSM05/5-712-2 resulted in 95.7 \% of our sequences being assigned to diatoms across 18 different families, with 38.6 \% of them being resolved to species and 25.8 \% to genus level. Independent replicates show a high similarity of PCR products, especially in the oldest samples. Diatom sedaDNA richness is highest in the Late Weichselian and lowest in Mid- and Late Holocene samples. Taxonomic composition is dominated by cold-water and sea-ice-associated diatoms and suggests several reorganisations - after the Last Glacial Maximum, after the Younger Dryas, and after the Early and after the Mid-Holocene. Different sequences assigned to, amongst others, Chaetoceros socialis indicate the detectability of intra-specific diversity using sedaDNA. We detect no clear pattern between our diatom sedaDNA record and the previously published IP25 record of this core, although proportions of pennate diatoms increase with higher IP25 concentrations and proportions of Nitzschia cf. frigida exceeding 2 \% of the assemblage point towards past sea-ice presence.}, language = {en} } @article{EiteljoergeAdamElsneretal.2019, author = {Eiteljoerge, Sarah Fe Vivian and Adam, Maurits and Elsner, Birgit and Mani, Nivedita}, title = {Consistency of co-occurring actions influences young children's word learning learning}, series = {Royal Society Open Science}, volume = {6}, journal = {Royal Society Open Science}, number = {8}, publisher = {Royal Society}, address = {London}, issn = {2054-5703}, doi = {10.1098/rsos.190097}, pages = {17}, year = {2019}, abstract = {Communication with young children is often multimodal in nature, involving, for example, language and actions. The simultaneous presentation of information from both domains may boost language learning by highlighting the connection between an object and a word, owing to temporal overlap in the presentation of multimodal input. However, the overlap is not merely temporal but can also covary in the extent to which particular actions co-occur with particular words and objects, e.g. carers typically produce a hopping action when talking about rabbits and a snapping action for crocodiles. The frequency with which actions and words co-occurs in the presence of the referents of these words may also impact young children's word learning. We, therefore, examined the extent to which consistency in the co-occurrence of particular actions and words impacted children's learning of novel word-object associations. Children (18 months, 30 months and 36-48 months) and adults were presented with two novel objects and heard their novel labels while different actions were performed on these objects, such that the particular actions and word-object pairings always co-occurred (Consistent group) or varied across trials (Inconsistent group). At test, participants saw both objects and heard one of the labels to examine whether participants recognized the target object upon hearing its label. Growth curve models revealed that 18-month-olds did not learn words for objects in either condition, and 30-month-old and 36- to 48-month-old children learned words for objects only in the Consistent condition, in contrast to adults who learned words for objects independent of the actions presented. Thus, consistency in the multimodal input influenced word learning in early childhood but not in adulthood. In terms of a dynamic systems account of word learning, our study shows how multimodal learning settings interact with the child's perceptual abilities to shape the learning experience.}, language = {en} } @article{SchaeferBittmann2020, author = {Schaefer, Laura and Bittmann, Frank}, title = {Mechanotendography in Achillodynia shows reduced oscillation variability of pre-loaded Achilles tendon}, series = {European Journal of Translational Myology (EJTM)}, volume = {30}, journal = {European Journal of Translational Myology (EJTM)}, number = {2}, publisher = {Unipress}, address = {Padova}, issn = {2037-7460}, doi = {10.4081/ejtm.2020.8983}, pages = {247 -- 257}, year = {2020}, abstract = {The present study focuses on an innovative approach in measuring the mechanical oscillations of pre-loaded Achilles tendon by using Mechanotendography (MTG) during application of a short yet powerful mechanical pressure impact. This was applied on the forefoot from the plantar side in direction of dorsiflexion, while the subject stood on the ball of the forefoot on one leg. Participants with Achilles tendinopathy (AT; n = 10) were compared to healthy controls (Con; n = 10). Five trials were performed on each side of the body. For evaluation, two intervals after the impulse began (0-100ms; 30-100ms) were cut from the MTG and pressure raw signals. The intrapersonal variability between the five trials in both intervals were evaluated using the arithmetic mean and coefficient of variation of the mean correlation (Spearman rank correlation) and the normalized averaged mean distances, respectively. The AT-group showed a significantly reduced variability in MTG compared to the Con-group (from p = 0.006 to p = 0.028 for different parameters). The 95\% confidence intervals (CI) of MTG results were disjoint, whereas the 95\% CIs of the pressure signals were similar (p = 0.192 to p = 0.601). We suggest from this work that the variability of mechanical tendon oscillations could be an indicative parameter of an altered Achilles tendon functionality.}, language = {en} } @misc{SchaeferBittmann2020, author = {Schaefer, Laura and Bittmann, Frank}, title = {Mechanotendography in Achillodynia shows reduced oscillation variability of pre-loaded Achilles tendon}, series = {Postprints der Universit{\"a}t Potsdam : Humanwissenschaftliche Reihe}, journal = {Postprints der Universit{\"a}t Potsdam : Humanwissenschaftliche Reihe}, number = {668}, issn = {1866-8364}, doi = {10.25932/publishup-48349}, url = {http://nbn-resolving.de/urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-483499}, pages = {13}, year = {2020}, abstract = {The present study focuses on an innovative approach in measuring the mechanical oscillations of pre-loaded Achilles tendon by using Mechanotendography (MTG) during application of a short yet powerful mechanical pressure impact. This was applied on the forefoot from the plantar side in direction of dorsiflexion, while the subject stood on the ball of the forefoot on one leg. Participants with Achilles tendinopathy (AT; n = 10) were compared to healthy controls (Con; n = 10). Five trials were performed on each side of the body. For evaluation, two intervals after the impulse began (0-100ms; 30-100ms) were cut from the MTG and pressure raw signals. The intrapersonal variability between the five trials in both intervals were evaluated using the arithmetic mean and coefficient of variation of the mean correlation (Spearman rank correlation) and the normalized averaged mean distances, respectively. The AT-group showed a significantly reduced variability in MTG compared to the Con-group (from p = 0.006 to p = 0.028 for different parameters). The 95\% confidence intervals (CI) of MTG results were disjoint, whereas the 95\% CIs of the pressure signals were similar (p = 0.192 to p = 0.601). We suggest from this work that the variability of mechanical tendon oscillations could be an indicative parameter of an altered Achilles tendon functionality.}, language = {en} } @phdthesis{DeVeaughGeiss2020, author = {De Veaugh-Geiss, Joseph P.}, title = {Cleft exhaustivity}, doi = {10.25932/publishup-44642}, url = {http://nbn-resolving.de/urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-446421}, school = {Universit{\"a}t Potsdam}, pages = {viii, 243}, year = {2020}, abstract = {In this dissertation a series of experimental studies are presented which demonstrate that the exhaustive inference of focus-background it-clefts in English and their cross-linguistic counterparts in Akan, French, and German is neither robust nor systematic. The inter-speaker and cross-linguistic variability is accounted for with a discourse-pragmatic approach to cleft exhaustivity, in which -- following Pollard \& Yasavul 2016 -- the exhaustive inference is derived from an interaction with another layer of meaning, namely, the existence presupposition encoded in clefts.}, language = {en} } @article{KoussoroplisWacker2016, author = {Koussoroplis, Apostolos-Manuel and Wacker, Alexander}, title = {Covariance modulates the effect of joint temperature and food variance on ectotherm life-history traits}, series = {Ecology letters}, volume = {19}, journal = {Ecology letters}, publisher = {Wiley-Blackwell}, address = {Hoboken}, issn = {1461-023X}, doi = {10.1111/ele.12546}, pages = {143 -- 152}, year = {2016}, abstract = {Understanding animal performance in heterogeneous or variable environments is a central question in ecology. We combine modelling and experiments to test how temperature and food availability variance jointly affect life-history traits of ectotherms. The model predicts that as mean temperatures move away from the ectotherm's thermal optimum, the effect size of joint thermal and food variance should become increasingly sensitive to their covariance. Below the thermal optimum, performance should be positively correlated with food-temperature covariance and the opposite is predicted above it. At lower temperatures, covariance should determine whether food and temperature variance increases or decreases performance compared to constant conditions. Somewhat stronger than predicted, the covariance effect below the thermal optimum was confirmed experimentally on an aquatic ectotherm (Daphnia magna) exposed to diurnal food and temperature variance with different amounts of covariance. Our findings have important implications for understanding ectotherm responses to climate-driven alterations of thermal mean and variance.}, language = {en} } @misc{NordBoudevillainBerneetal.2017, author = {Nord, Guillaume and Boudevillain, Brice and Berne, Alexis and Branger, Flora and Braud, Isabelle and Dramais, Guillaume and G{\´e}rard, Simon and Le Coz, J{\´e}r{\^o}me and Lego{\^u}t, C{\´e}dric and Molini{\´e}, Gilles and Van Baelen, Joel and Vandervaere, Jean-Pierre and Andrieu, Julien and Aubert, Coralie and Calianno, Martin and Delrieu, Guy and Grazioli, Jacopo and Hachani, Sahar and Horner, Ivan and Huza, Jessica and Le Boursicaud, Rapha{\"e}l and Raupach, Timothy H. and Teuling, Adriaan J. and Uber, Magdalena and Vincendon, B{\´e}atrice and Wijbrans, Annette}, title = {A high space-time resolution dataset linking meteorological forcing and hydro-sedimentary response in a mesoscale Mediterranean catchment (Auzon) of the Ard{\`e}che region, France}, series = {Postprints der Universit{\"a}t Potsdam : Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe}, journal = {Postprints der Universit{\"a}t Potsdam : Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe}, number = {671}, issn = {1866-8372}, doi = {10.25932/publishup-41912}, url = {http://nbn-resolving.de/urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-419127}, pages = {29}, year = {2017}, abstract = {A comprehensive hydrometeorological dataset is presented spanning the period 1 January 201131 December 2014 to improve the understanding of the hydrological processes leading to flash floods and the relation between rainfall, runoff, erosion and sediment transport in a mesoscale catchment (Auzon, 116 km(2)) of the Mediterranean region. Badlands are present in the Auzon catchment and well connected to high-gradient channels of bedrock rivers which promotes the transfer of suspended solids downstream. The number of observed variables, the various sensors involved (both in situ and remote) and the space-time resolution (similar to km(2), similar to min) of this comprehensive dataset make it a unique contribution to research communities focused on hydrometeorology, surface hydrology and erosion. Given that rainfall is highly variable in space and time in this region, the observation system enables assessment of the hydrological response to rainfall fields. Indeed, (i) rainfall data are provided by rain gauges (both a research network of 21 rain gauges with a 5 min time step and an operational network of 10 rain gauges with a 5 min or 1 h time step), S-band Doppler dual-polarization radars (1 km(2), 5 min resolution), disdrometers (16 sensors working at 30 s or 1 min time step) and Micro Rain Radars (5 sensors, 100m height resolution). Additionally, during the special observation period (SOP-1) of the HyMeX (Hydrological Cycle in the Mediterranean Experiment) project, two X-band radars provided precipitation measurements at very fine spatial and temporal scales (1 ha, 5 min). (ii) Other meteorological data are taken from the operational surface weather observation stations of Meteo-France (including 2m air temperature, atmospheric pressure, 2 m relative humidity, 10m wind speed and direction, global radiation) at the hourly time resolution (six stations in the region of interest). (iii) The monitoring of surface hydrology and suspended sediment is multi-scale and based on nested catchments. Three hydrometric stations estimate water discharge at a 2-10 min time resolution. Two of these stations also measure additional physico-chemical variables (turbidity, temperature, conductivity) and water samples are collected automatically during floods, allowing further geochemical characterization of water and suspended solids. Two experimental plots monitor overland flow and erosion at 1 min time resolution on a hillslope with vineyard. A network of 11 sensors installed in the intermittent hydrographic network continuously measures water level and water temperature in headwater subcatchments (from 0.17 to 116 km(2)) at a time resolution of 2-5 min. A network of soil moisture sensors enables the continuous measurement of soil volumetric water content at 20 min time resolution at 9 sites. Additionally, concomitant observations (soil moisture measurements and stream gauging) were performed during floods between 2012 and 2014. Finally, this dataset is considered appropriate for understanding the rainfall variability in time and space at fine scales, improving areal rainfall estimations and progressing in distributed hydrological and erosion modelling.}, language = {en} } @misc{AcevedoFallahReichetal.2017, author = {Acevedo, Walter and Fallah, Bijan and Reich, Sebastian and Cubasch, Ulrich}, title = {Assimilation of pseudo-tree-ring-width observations into an atmospheric general circulation model}, series = {Postprints der Universit{\"a}t Potsdam : Mathematisch Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe}, journal = {Postprints der Universit{\"a}t Potsdam : Mathematisch Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe}, number = {627}, issn = {1866-8372}, doi = {10.25932/publishup-41874}, url = {http://nbn-resolving.de/urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-418743}, pages = {545 -- 557}, year = {2017}, abstract = {Paleoclimate data assimilation (DA) is a promising technique to systematically combine the information from climate model simulations and proxy records. Here, we investigate the assimilation of tree-ring-width (TRW) chronologies into an atmospheric global climate model using ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) techniques and a process-based tree-growth forward model as an observation operator. Our results, within a perfect-model experiment setting, indicate that the "online DA" approach did not outperform the "off-line" one, despite its considerable additional implementation complexity. On the other hand, it was observed that the nonlinear response of tree growth to surface temperature and soil moisture does deteriorate the operation of the time-averaged EnKF methodology. Moreover, for the first time we show that this skill loss appears significantly sensitive to the structure of the growth rate function, used to represent the principle of limiting factors (PLF) within the forward model. In general, our experiments showed that the error reduction achieved by assimilating pseudo-TRW chronologies is modulated by the magnitude of the yearly internal variability in themodel. This result might help the dendrochronology community to optimize their sampling efforts.}, language = {en} } @misc{SeibertMerzApel2017, author = {Seibert, Mathias and Merz, Bruno and Apel, Heiko}, title = {Seasonal forecasting of hydrological drought in the Limpopo Basin}, series = {Postprints der Universit{\"a}t Potsdam : Mathematisch Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe}, journal = {Postprints der Universit{\"a}t Potsdam : Mathematisch Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe}, number = {626}, doi = {10.25932/publishup-41844}, url = {http://nbn-resolving.de/urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-418442}, pages = {1611 -- 1629}, year = {2017}, abstract = {The Limpopo Basin in southern Africa is prone to droughts which affect the livelihood of millions of people in South Africa, Botswana, Zimbabwe and Mozambique. Seasonal drought early warning is thus vital for the whole region. In this study, the predictability of hydrological droughts during the main runoff period from December to May is assessed using statistical approaches. Three methods (multiple linear models, artificial neural networks, random forest regression trees) are compared in terms of their ability to forecast streamflow with up to 12 months of lead time. The following four main findings result from the study. 1. There are stations in the basin at which standardised streamflow is predictable with lead times up to 12 months. The results show high inter-station differences of forecast skill but reach a coefficient of determination as high as 0.73 (cross validated). 2. A large range of potential predictors is considered in this study, comprising well-established climate indices, customised teleconnection indices derived from sea surface temperatures and antecedent streamflow as a proxy of catchment conditions. El Nino and customised indices, representing sea surface temperature in the Atlantic and Indian oceans, prove to be important teleconnection predictors for the region. Antecedent streamflow is a strong predictor in small catchments (with median 42\% explained variance), whereas teleconnections exert a stronger influence in large catchments. 3. Multiple linear models show the best forecast skill in this study and the greatest robustness compared to artificial neural networks and random forest regression trees, despite their capabilities to represent nonlinear relationships. 4. Employed in early warning, the models can be used to forecast a specific drought level. Even if the coefficient of determination is low, the forecast models have a skill better than a climatological forecast, which is shown by analysis of receiver operating characteristics (ROCs). Seasonal statistical forecasts in the Limpopo show promising results, and thus it is recommended to employ them as complementary to existing forecasts in order to strengthen preparedness for droughts.}, language = {en} } @misc{MolnosMamdouhPetrietal.2017, author = {Molnos, Sonja and Mamdouh, Tarek and Petri, Stefan and Nocke, Thomas and Weinkauf, Tino and Coumou, Dim}, title = {A network-based detection scheme for the jet stream core}, series = {Postprints der Universit{\"a}t Potsdam : Mathematisch Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe}, journal = {Postprints der Universit{\"a}t Potsdam : Mathematisch Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe}, number = {625}, issn = {1866-8372}, doi = {10.25932/publishup-41909}, url = {http://nbn-resolving.de/urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-419099}, pages = {75 -- 89}, year = {2017}, abstract = {The polar and subtropical jet streams are strong upper-level winds with a crucial influence on weather throughout the Northern Hemisphere midlatitudes. In particular, the polar jet is located between cold arctic air to the north and warmer subtropical air to the south. Strongly meandering states therefore often lead to extreme surface weather. Some algorithms exist which can detect the 2-D (latitude and longitude) jets' core around the hemisphere, but all of them use a minimal threshold to determine the subtropical and polar jet stream. This is particularly problematic for the polar jet stream, whose wind velocities can change rapidly from very weak to very high values and vice versa. We develop a network-based scheme using Dijkstra's shortest-path algorithm to detect the polar and subtropical jet stream core. This algorithm not only considers the commonly used wind strength for core detection but also takes wind direction and climatological latitudinal position into account. Furthermore, it distinguishes between polar and subtropical jet, and between separate and merged jet states. The parameter values of the detection scheme are optimized using simulated annealing and a skill function that accounts for the zonal-mean jet stream position (Rikus, 2015). After the successful optimization process, we apply our scheme to reanalysis data covering 1979-2015 and calculate seasonal-mean probabilistic maps and trends in wind strength and position of jet streams. We present longitudinally defined probability distributions of the positions for both jets for all on the Northern Hemisphere seasons. This shows that winter is characterized by two well-separated jets over Europe and Asia (ca. 20 degrees W to 140 degrees E). In contrast, summer normally has a single merged jet over the western hemisphere but can have both merged and separated jet states in the eastern hemisphere. With this algorithm it is possible to investigate the position of the jets' cores around the hemisphere and it is therefore very suitable to analyze jet stream patterns in observations and models, enabling more advanced model-validation.}, language = {en} } @misc{CohenCampisanoArrowsmithetal.2016, author = {Cohen, Abby and Campisano, Christopher and Arrowsmith, J. Ramon and Asrat, Asfawossen and Behrensmeyer, A. K. and Deino, A. and Feibel, C. and Hill, A. and Johnson, R. and Kingston, J. and Lamb, Henry F. and Lowenstein, T. and Noren, A. and Olago, D. and Owen, Richard Bernhart and Potts, R. and Reed, Kate and Renaut, R. and Sch{\"a}bitz, F. and Tiercelin, J.-J. and Trauth, Martin H. and Wynn, J. and Ivory, S. and Brady, K. and O'Grady, R. and Rodysill, J. and Githiri, J. and Russell, Joellen and Foerster, Verena and Dommain, Ren{\´e} and Rucina, J. S. and Deocampo, D. and Russell, J. and Billingsley, A. and Beck, C. and Dorenbeck, G. and Dullo, L. and Feary, D. and Garello, D. and Gromig, R. and Johnson, T. and Junginger, Annett and Karanja, M. and Kimburi, E. and Mbuthia, A. and McCartney, Tannis and McNulty, E. and Muiruri, V. and Nambiro, E. and Negash, E. W. and Njagi, D. and Wilson, J. N. and Rabideaux, N. and Raub, Timothy and Sier, Mark Jan and Smith, P. and Urban, J. and Warren, M. and Yadeta, M. and Yost, Chad and Zinaye, B.}, title = {The Hominin Sites and Paleolakes Drilling Project}, series = {Postprints der Universit{\"a}t Potsdam : Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe}, journal = {Postprints der Universit{\"a}t Potsdam : Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe}, number = {611}, doi = {10.25932/publishup-41249}, url = {http://nbn-resolving.de/urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-412498}, pages = {16}, year = {2016}, abstract = {The role that climate and environmental history may have played in influencing human evolution has been the focus of considerable interest and controversy among paleoanthropologists for decades. Prior attempts to understand the environmental history side of this equation have centered around the study of outcrop sediments and fossils adjacent to where fossil hominins (ancestors or close relatives of modern humans) are found, or from the study of deep sea drill cores. However, outcrop sediments are often highly weathered and thus are unsuitable for some types of paleoclimatic records, and deep sea core records come from long distances away from the actual fossil and stone tool remains. The Hominin Sites and Paleolakes Drilling Project (HSPDP) was developed to address these issues. The project has focused its efforts on the eastern African Rift Valley, where much of the evidence for early hominins has been recovered. We have collected about 2 km of sediment drill core from six basins in Kenya and Ethiopia, in lake deposits immediately adjacent to important fossil hominin and archaeological sites. Collectively these cores cover in time many of the key transitions and critical intervals in human evolutionary history over the last 4 Ma, such as the earliest stone tools, the origin of our own genus Homo, and the earliest anatomically modern Homo sapiens. Here we document the initial field, physical property, and core description results of the 2012-2014 HSPDP coring campaign.}, language = {en} } @misc{DallmeyerClaussenFischeretal.2015, author = {Dallmeyer, Anne and Claussen, M. and Fischer, N. and Haberkorn, K. and Wagner, S. and Pfeiffer, M. and Jin, L. and Khon, Vyacheslav and Wang, Y. and Herzschuh, Ulrike}, title = {The evolution of sub-monsoon systems in the Afro-Asian monsoon region during the Holocene}, series = {Postprints der Universit{\"a}t Potsdam : Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe}, journal = {Postprints der Universit{\"a}t Potsdam : Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe}, number = {587}, issn = {1866-8372}, doi = {10.25932/publishup-40972}, url = {http://nbn-resolving.de/urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-409727}, pages = {22}, year = {2015}, abstract = {The recently proposed global monsoon hypothesis interprets monsoon systems as part of one global-scale atmospheric overturning circulation, implying a connection between the regional monsoon systems and an in-phase behaviour of all northern hemispheric monsoons on annual timescales (Trenberth et al., 2000). Whether this concept can be applied to past climates and variability on longer timescales is still under debate, because the monsoon systems exhibit different regional characteristics such as different seasonality (i. e. onset, peak and withdrawal). To investigate the interconnection of different monsoon systems during the pre-industrial Holocene, five transient global climate model simulations have been analysed with respect to the rainfall trend and variability in different sub-domains of the Afro-Asian monsoon region. Our analysis suggests that on millennial timescales with varying orbital forcing, the monsoons do not behave as a tightly connected global system. According to the models, the Indian and North African monsoons are coupled, showing similar rainfall trend and moderate correlation in centennial rainfall variability in all models. The East Asian monsoon changes independently during the Holocene. The dissimilarities in the seasonality of the monsoon sub-systems lead to a stronger response of the North African and Indian monsoon systems to the Holocene insolation forcing than of the East Asian monsoon and affect the seasonal distribution of Holocene rainfall variations. Within the Indian and North African monsoon domain, precipitation solely changes during the summer months, showing a decreasing Holocene precipitation trend. In the East Asian monsoon region, the precipitation signal is determined by an increasing precipitation trend during spring and a decreasing precipitation change during summer, partly balancing each other. A synthesis of reconstructions and the model results do not reveal an impact of the different seasonality on the timing of the Holocene rainfall optimum in the different sub-monsoon systems. Rather they indicate locally inhomogeneous rainfall changes and show that single palaeo-records should not be used to characterise the rainfall change and monsoon evolution for entire monsoon sub-systems.}, language = {en} } @misc{GoswamiBoersRheinwaltetal.2018, author = {Goswami, Bedartha and Boers, Niklas and Rheinwalt, Aljoscha and Marwan, Norbert and Heitzig, Jobst and Breitenbach, Sebastian Franz Martin and Kurths, J{\"u}rgen}, title = {Abrupt transitions in time series with uncertainties}, series = {Postprints der Universit{\"a}t Potsdam Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe}, journal = {Postprints der Universit{\"a}t Potsdam Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe}, number = {576}, issn = {1866-8372}, doi = {10.25932/publishup-42311}, url = {http://nbn-resolving.de/urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-423111}, pages = {10}, year = {2018}, abstract = {Identifying abrupt transitions is a key question in various disciplines. Existing transition detection methods, however, do not rigorously account for time series uncertainties, often neglecting them altogether or assuming them to be independent and qualitatively similar. Here, we introduce a novel approach suited to handle uncertainties by representing the time series as a time-ordered sequence of probability density functions. We show how to detect abrupt transitions in such a sequence using the community structure of networks representing probabilities of recurrence. Using our approach, we detect transitions in global stock indices related to well-known periods of politico-economic volatility. We further uncover transitions in the El Nino-Southern Oscillation which coincide with periods of phase locking with the Pacific Decadal Oscillation. Finally, we provide for the first time an 'uncertainty-aware' framework which validates the hypothesis that ice-rafting events in the North Atlantic during the Holocene were synchronous with a weakened Asian summer monsoon.}, language = {en} } @misc{ClasonMairNienowetal.2015, author = {Clason, Caroline C. and Mair, D. W. F. and Nienow, P. W. and Bartholomew, I. D. and Sole, Andrew and Palmer, Steven and Schwanghart, Wolfgang}, title = {Modelling the transfer of supraglacial meltwater to the bed of Leverett Glacier, Southwest Greenland}, series = {Postprints der Universit{\"a}t Potsdam : Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe}, journal = {Postprints der Universit{\"a}t Potsdam : Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe}, number = {513}, issn = {1866-8372}, doi = {10.25932/publishup-40905}, url = {http://nbn-resolving.de/urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-409053}, pages = {16}, year = {2015}, abstract = {Meltwater delivered to the bed of the Greenland Ice Sheet is a driver of variable ice-motion through changes in effective pressure and enhanced basal lubrication. Ice surface velocities have been shown to respond rapidly both to meltwater production at the surface and to drainage of supraglacial lakes, suggesting efficient transfer of meltwater from the supraglacial to subglacial hydrological systems. Although considerable effort is currently being directed towards improved modelling of the controlling surface and basal processes, modelling the temporal and spatial evolution of the transfer of melt to the bed has received less attention. Here we present the results of spatially distributed modelling for prediction of moulins and lake drainages on the Leverett Glacier in Southwest Greenland. The model is run for the 2009 and 2010 ablation seasons, and for future increased melt scenarios. The temporal pattern of modelled lake drainages are qualitatively comparable with those documented from analyses of repeat satellite imagery. The modelled timings and locations of delivery of meltwater to the bed also match well with observed temporal and spatial patterns of ice surface speed-ups. This is particularly true for the lower catchment (< 1000 m a.s.l.) where both the model and observations indicate that the development of moulins is the main mechanism for the transfer of surface meltwater to the bed. At higher elevations (e.g. 1250-1500 m a.s.l.) the development and drainage of supraglacial lakes becomes increasingly important. At these higher elevations, the delay between modelled melt generation and subsequent delivery of melt to the bed matches the observed delay between the peak air temperatures and subsequent velocity speed-ups, while the instantaneous transfer of melt to the bed in a control simulation does not. Although both moulins and lake drainages are predicted to increase in number for future warmer climate scenarios, the lake drainages play an increasingly important role in both expanding the area over which melt accesses the bed and in enabling a greater proportion of surface melt to reach the bed.}, language = {en} } @misc{SunyerHundechaLawrenceetal.2015, author = {Sunyer, M. A. and Hundecha, Y. and Lawrence, D. and Madsen, H. and Willems, Patrick and Martinkova, M. and Vormoor, Klaus Josef and B{\"u}rger, Gerd and Hanel, Martin and Kriaučiūnienė, J. and Loukas, A. and Osuch, M. and Y{\"u}cel, I.}, title = {Inter-comparison of statistical downscaling methods for projection of extreme precipitation in Europe}, series = {Postprints der Universit{\"a}t Potsdam : Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe}, journal = {Postprints der Universit{\"a}t Potsdam : Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe}, number = {512}, issn = {1866-8372}, doi = {10.25932/publishup-40892}, url = {http://nbn-resolving.de/urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-408920}, pages = {21}, year = {2015}, abstract = {Information on extreme precipitation for future climate is needed to assess the changes in the frequency and intensity of flooding. The primary source of information in climate change impact studies is climate model projections. However, due to the coarse resolution and biases of these models, they cannot be directly used in hydrological models. Hence, statistical downscaling is necessary to address climate change impacts at the catchment scale. This study compares eight statistical downscaling methods (SDMs) often used in climate change impact studies. Four methods are based on change factors (CFs), three are bias correction (BC) methods, and one is a perfect prognosis method. The eight methods are used to downscale precipitation output from 15 regional climate models (RCMs) from the ENSEMBLES project for 11 catchments in Europe. The overall results point to an increase in extreme precipitation in most catchments in both winter and summer. For individual catchments, the downscaled time series tend to agree on the direction of the change but differ in the magnitude. Differences between the SDMs vary between the catchments and depend on the season analysed. Similarly, general conclusions cannot be drawn regarding the differences between CFs and BC methods. The performance of the BC methods during the control period also depends on the catchment, but in most cases they represent an improvement compared to RCM outputs. Analysis of the variance in the ensemble of RCMs and SDMs indicates that at least 30\% and up to approximately half of the total variance is derived from the SDMs. This study illustrates the large variability in the expected changes in extreme precipitation and highlights the need for considering an ensemble of both SDMs and climate models. Recommendations are provided for the selection of the most suitable SDMs to include in the analysis.}, language = {en} } @misc{DeSouzaSilveiraCarlsohnLangenetal.2016, author = {De Souza Silveira, Raul and Carlsohn, Anja and Langen, Georg and Mayer, Frank and Scharhag-Rosenberger, Friederike}, title = {Reliability and day-to-day variability of peak fat oxidation during treadmill ergometry}, series = {Postprints der Universit{\"a}t Potsdam : Humanwissenschaftliche Reihe}, journal = {Postprints der Universit{\"a}t Potsdam : Humanwissenschaftliche Reihe}, number = {423}, url = {http://nbn-resolving.de/urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-407334}, pages = {7}, year = {2016}, abstract = {Background: Exercising at intensities where fat oxidation rates are high has been shown to induce metabolic benefits in recreational and health-oriented sportsmen. The exercise intensity (Fat peak ) eliciting peak fat oxidation rates is therefore of particular interest when aiming to prescribe exercise for the purpose of fat oxidation and related metabolic effects. Although running and walking are feasible and popular among the target population, no reliable protocols are available to assess Fat peak as well as its actual velocity (V PFO ) during treadmill ergometry. Our purpose was therefore, to assess the reliability and day-to-day variability of V PFO and Fat peak during treadmill ergometry running. Methods: Sixteen recreational athletes (f = 7, m = 9; 25 ± 3 y; 1.76 ± 0.09 m; 68.3 ± 13.7 kg; 23.1 ± 2.9 kg/m 2 ) performed 2 different running protocols on 3 different days with standardized nutrition the day before testing. At day 1, peak oxygen uptake (VO 2peak ) and the velocities at the aerobic threshold (V LT ) and respiratory exchange ratio (RER) of 1.00 (V RER ) were assessed. At days 2 and 3, subjects ran an identical submaximal incremental test (Fat-peak test) composed of a 10 min warm-up (70 \% V LT ) followed by 5 stages of 6 min with equal increments (stage 1 = V LT , stage 5 = V RER ). Breath-by-breath gas exchange data was measured continuously and used to determine fat oxidation rates. A third order polynomial function was used to identify V PFO and subsequently Fat peak . The reproducibility and variability of variables was verified with an int raclass correlation coef ficient (ICC), Pearson ' s correlation coefficient, coefficient of variation (CV) an d the mean differences (bias) ± 95 \% limits of agreement (LoA). Results: ICC, Pearson ' s correlation and CV for V PFO and Fat peak were 0.98, 0.97, 5.0 \%; and 0.90, 0.81, 7.0 \%, respectively. Bias ± 95 \% LoA was - 0.3 ± 0.9 km/h for V PFO and - 2±8\%ofVO 2peak for Fat peak. Conclusion: In summary, relative and absolute reliability indicators for V PFO and Fat peak were found to be excellent. The observed LoA may now serve as a basis for future training prescriptions, although fat oxidation rates at prolonged exercise bouts at this intensity still need to be investigated.}, language = {en} } @phdthesis{Schmidt2017, author = {Schmidt, Silke Regina}, title = {Analyzing lakes in the time frequency domain}, url = {http://nbn-resolving.de/urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-406955}, school = {Universit{\"a}t Potsdam}, pages = {VIII, 126}, year = {2017}, abstract = {The central aim of this thesis is to demonstrate the benefits of innovative frequency-based methods to better explain the variability observed in lake ecosystems. Freshwater ecosystems may be the most threatened part of the hydrosphere. Lake ecosystems are particularly sensitive to changes in climate and land use because they integrate disturbances across their entire catchment. This makes understanding the dynamics of lake ecosystems an intriguing and important research priority. This thesis adds new findings to the baseline knowledge regarding variability in lake ecosystems. It provides a literature-based, data-driven and methodological framework for the investigation of variability and patterns in environmental parameters in the time frequency domain. Observational data often show considerable variability in the environmental parameters of lake ecosystems. This variability is mostly driven by a plethora of periodic and stochastic processes inside and outside the ecosystems. These run in parallel and may operate at vastly different time scales, ranging from seconds to decades. In measured data, all of these signals are superimposed, and dominant processes may obscure the signals of other processes, particularly when analyzing mean values over long time scales. Dominant signals are often caused by phenomena at long time scales like seasonal cycles, and most of these are well understood in the limnological literature. The variability injected by biological, chemical and physical processes operating at smaller time scales is less well understood. However, variability affects the state and health of lake ecosystems at all time scales. Besides measuring time series at sufficiently high temporal resolution, the investigation of the full spectrum of variability requires innovative methods of analysis. Analyzing observational data in the time frequency domain allows to identify variability at different time scales and facilitates their attribution to specific processes. The merit of this approach is subsequently demonstrated in three case studies. The first study uses a conceptual analysis to demonstrate the importance of time scales for the detection of ecosystem responses to climate change. These responses often occur during critical time windows in the year, may exhibit a time lag and can be driven by the exceedance of thresholds in their drivers. This can only be detected if the temporal resolution of the data is high enough. The second study applies Fast Fourier Transform spectral analysis to two decades of daily water temperature measurements to show how temporal and spatial scales of water temperature variability can serve as an indicator for mixing in a shallow, polymictic lake. The final study uses wavelet coherence as a diagnostic tool for limnology on a multivariate high-frequency data set recorded between the onset of ice cover and a cyanobacteria summer bloom in the year 2009 in a polymictic lake. Synchronicities among limnological and meteorological time series in narrow frequency bands were used to identify and disentangle prevailing limnological processes. Beyond the novel empirical findings reported in the three case studies, this thesis aims to more generally be of interest to researchers dealing with now increasingly available time series data at high temporal resolution. A set of innovative methods to attribute patterns to processes, their drivers and constraints is provided to help make more efficient use of this kind of data.}, language = {en} } @article{SeifertWeithoffVos2015, author = {Seifert, Linda I. and Weithoff, Guntram and Vos, Matthijs}, title = {Extreme heat changes post-heat wave community reassembly}, series = {Ecology and evolution}, volume = {5}, journal = {Ecology and evolution}, number = {11}, publisher = {Wiley-Blackwell}, address = {Hoboken}, issn = {2045-7758}, doi = {10.1002/ece3.1490}, pages = {2140 -- 2148}, year = {2015}, abstract = {Climate forecasts project further increases in extremely high-temperature events. These present threats to biodiversity, as they promote population declines and local species extinctions. This implies that ecological communities will need to rely more strongly on recovery processes, such as recolonization from a meta-community context. It is poorly understood how differences in extreme event intensity change the outcome of subsequent community reassembly and if such extremes modify the biotic environment in ways that would prevent the successful re-establishment of lost species. We studied replicated aquatic communities consisting of algae and herbivorous rotifers in a design that involved a control and two different heat wave intensity treatments (29 degrees C and 39 degrees C). Animal species that suffered heat-induced extinction were subsequently re-introduced at the same time and density, in each of the two treatments. The 39 degrees C treatment led to community closure in all replicates, meaning that a previously successful herbivore species could not re-establish itself in the postheat wave community. In contrast, such closure never occurred after a 29 degrees C event. Heat wave intensity determined the number of herbivore extinctions and strongly affected algal relative abundances. Re-introduced herbivore species were thus confronted with significantly different food environments. This ecological legacy generated by heat wave intensity led to differences in the failure or success of herbivore species re-introductions. Reassembly was significantly more variable, and hence less predictable, after an extreme heat wave, and was more canalized after a moderate one. Our results pertain to relatively simple communities, but they suggest that ecological legacies introduced by extremely high-temperature events may change subsequent ecological recovery and even prevent the successful re-establishment of lost species. Knowing the processes promoting and preventing ecological recovery is crucial to the success of species re-introduction programs and to our ability to restore ecosystems damaged by environmental extremes.}, language = {en} } @article{ScharhagRosenbergerWalitzekKindermannetal.2012, author = {Scharhag-Rosenberger, Friederike and Walitzek, Susanne and Kindermann, Wilfried and Meyer, Tim}, title = {Differences in adaptations to 1 year of aerobic endurance training individual patterns of nonresponse}, series = {Scandinavian journal of medicine \& science in sports}, volume = {22}, journal = {Scandinavian journal of medicine \& science in sports}, number = {1}, publisher = {Wiley-Blackwell}, address = {Malden}, issn = {0905-7188}, doi = {10.1111/j.1600-0838.2010.01139.x}, pages = {113 -- 118}, year = {2012}, abstract = {Lacking responses to endurance training (ET) have been observed for several variables. However, detailed analyses of individuals' responses are scarce. To learn more about the variability of ET adaptations, patterns of response were analyzed for each subject in a 1-year ET study. Eighteen participants [42 +/- 5 years, body mass index: 24 +/- 3 kg/m2, maximal oxygen uptake (VO2max): 38 +/- 5 mL/min/kg] completed a 1-year jogging/walking program on 3 days/week, 45 min/session at 60\% heart rate (HR) reserve. VO2max, resting HR (rHR), exercise HR (eHR) and individual anaerobic threshold (IAT) were determined by treadmill and cycling ergometry respectively. Intraindividual coefficients of variation were extracted from the literature to distinguish random changes from training responses. Eight participants showed improvements in all variables. In 10 participants, one or two variables did not improve (VO2max, rHR, eHR and IAT remained unchanged in four, four, three and one cases, respectively). At least one variable improved in each subject. Data indicate that ET adaptations might be detected in each individual using multiple variables of different adaptation levels and intensity domains. Nonresponse seems to occur frequently and might affect all variables. Further studies should investigate whether nonresponders improve with altered training. Furthermore, associations between patterns of nonresponse and health benefits from ET are worth considering.}, language = {en} } @article{MenonLevermannSchewe2013, author = {Menon, Arathy and Levermann, Anders and Schewe, Jacob}, title = {Enhanced future variability during India's rainy season}, series = {Geophysical research letters}, volume = {40}, journal = {Geophysical research letters}, number = {12}, publisher = {American Geophysical Union}, address = {Washington}, issn = {0094-8276}, doi = {10.1002/grl.50583}, pages = {3242 -- 3247}, year = {2013}, abstract = {The Indian summer monsoon shapes the livelihood of a large share of the world's population. About 80\% of annual precipitation over India occurs during the monsoon season from June through September. Next to its seasonal mean rainfall, the day-to-day variability is crucial for the risk of flooding, national water supply, and agricultural productivity. Here we show that the latest ensemble of climate model simulations, prepared for the AR-5 of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, consistently projects significant increases in day-to-day rainfall variability under unmitigated climate change. The relative increase by the period 2071-2100 with respect to the control period 1871-1900 ranges from 13\% to 50\% under the strongest scenario (Representative Concentration Pathways, RCP-8.5), in the 10 models with the most realistic monsoon climatology; and 13\% to 85\% when all the 20 models are considered. The spread across models reduces when variability increase per degree of global warming is considered, which is independent of the scenario in most models, and is 8\% +/- 4\%/K on average. This consistent projection across 20 comprehensive climate models provides confidence in the results and suggests the necessity of profound adaptation measures in the case of unmitigated climate change.}, language = {en} } @misc{KormannFranckeRenneretal.2015, author = {Kormann, C. and Francke, Till and Renner, M. and Bronstert, Axel}, title = {Attribution of high resolution streamflow trends in Western Austria}, url = {http://nbn-resolving.de/urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-96560}, pages = {1225 -- 1245}, year = {2015}, abstract = {The results of streamflow trend studies are often characterized by mostly insignificant trends and inexplicable spatial patterns. In our study region, Western Austria, this applies especially for trends of annually averaged runoff. However, analysing the altitudinal aspect, we found that there is a trend gradient from higher-altitude to lower-altitude stations, i.e. a pattern of mostly positive annual trends at higher stations and negative ones at lower stations. At midaltitudes, the trends are mostly insignificant. Here we hypothesize that the streamflow trends are caused by the following two main processes: on the one hand, melting glaciers produce excess runoff at higher-altitude watersheds. On the other hand, rising temperatures potentially alter hydrological conditions in terms of less snowfall, higher infiltration, enhanced evapotranspiration, etc., which in turn results in decreasing streamflow trends at lower-altitude watersheds. However, these patterns are masked at mid-altitudes because the resulting positive and negative trends balance each other. To support these hypotheses, we attempted to attribute the detected trends to specific causes. For this purpose, we analysed trends of filtered daily streamflow data, as the causes for these changes might be restricted to a smaller temporal scale than the annual one. This allowed for the explicit determination of the exact days of year (DOYs) when certain streamflow trends emerge, which were then linked with the corresponding DOYs of the trends and characteristic dates of other observed variables, e.g. the average DOY when temperature crosses the freezing point in spring. Based on these analyses, an empirical statistical model was derived that was able to simulate daily streamflow trends sufficiently well. Analyses of subdaily streamflow changes provided additional insights. Finally, the present study supports many modelling approaches in the literature which found out that the main drivers of alpine streamflow changes are increased glacial melt, earlier snowmelt and lower snow accumulation in wintertime.}, language = {en} } @article{KormannFranckeRenneretal.2015, author = {Kormann, C. and Francke, Till and Renner, M. and Bronstert, Axel}, title = {Attribution of high resolution streamflow trends in Western Austria}, series = {Hydrology and earth system sciences}, volume = {19}, journal = {Hydrology and earth system sciences}, publisher = {EGU}, address = {Katlenburg-Lindau}, issn = {1607-7938}, doi = {10.5194/hess-19-1225-2015}, pages = {1225 -- 1245}, year = {2015}, abstract = {The results of streamflow trend studies are often characterized by mostly insignificant trends and inexplicable spatial patterns. In our study region, Western Austria, this applies especially for trends of annually averaged runoff. However, analysing the altitudinal aspect, we found that there is a trend gradient from higher-altitude to lower-altitude stations, i.e. a pattern of mostly positive annual trends at higher stations and negative ones at lower stations. At midaltitudes, the trends are mostly insignificant. Here we hypothesize that the streamflow trends are caused by the following two main processes: on the one hand, melting glaciers produce excess runoff at higher-altitude watersheds. On the other hand, rising temperatures potentially alter hydrological conditions in terms of less snowfall, higher infiltration, enhanced evapotranspiration, etc., which in turn results in decreasing streamflow trends at lower-altitude watersheds. However, these patterns are masked at mid-altitudes because the resulting positive and negative trends balance each other. To support these hypotheses, we attempted to attribute the detected trends to specific causes. For this purpose, we analysed trends of filtered daily streamflow data, as the causes for these changes might be restricted to a smaller temporal scale than the annual one. This allowed for the explicit determination of the exact days of year (DOYs) when certain streamflow trends emerge, which were then linked with the corresponding DOYs of the trends and characteristic dates of other observed variables, e.g. the average DOY when temperature crosses the freezing point in spring. Based on these analyses, an empirical statistical model was derived that was able to simulate daily streamflow trends sufficiently well. Analyses of subdaily streamflow changes provided additional insights. Finally, the present study supports many modelling approaches in the literature which found out that the main drivers of alpine streamflow changes are increased glacial melt, earlier snowmelt and lower snow accumulation in wintertime.}, language = {en} } @phdthesis{Schaber2002, author = {Schaber, J{\"o}rg}, title = {Phenology in Germany in the 20th century : methods, analyses and models}, url = {http://nbn-resolving.de/urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-0000532}, school = {Universit{\"a}t Potsdam}, year = {2002}, abstract = {Die L{\"a}nge der Vegetationsperiode (VP) spielt eine zentrale Rolle f{\"u}r die interannuelle Variation der Kohlenstoffspeicherung terrestrischer {\"O}kosysteme. Die Analyse von Beobachtungsdaten hat gezeigt, dass sich die VP in den letzten Jahrzehnten in den n{\"o}rdlichen Breiten verl{\"a}ngert hat. Dieses Ph{\"a}nomen wurde oft im Zusammenhang mit der globalen Erw{\"a}rmung diskutiert, da die Ph{\"a}nologie von der Temperatur beeinflusst wird. Die Analyse der Pflanzenph{\"a}nologie in S{\"u}ddeutschland im 20. Jahrhundert zeigte: - Die starke Verfr{\"u}hung der Fr{\"u}hjahrsphasen in dem Jahrzehnt vor 1999 war kein singul{\"a}res Ereignis im 20. Jahrhundert. Schon in fr{\"u}heren Dekaden gab es {\"a}hnliche Trends. Es konnten Perioden mit unterschiedlichem Trendverhalten identifiziert werden. - Es gab deutliche Unterschiede in den Trends von fr{\"u}hen und sp{\"a}ten Fr{\"u}hjahrsphasen. Die fr{\"u}hen Fr{\"u}hjahrsphasen haben sich stetig verfr{\"u}ht, mit deutlicher Verfr{\"u}hung zwischen 1931 und 1948, moderater Verfr{\"u}hung zwischen 1948 und 1984 und starker Verfr{\"u}hung zwischen 1984 und 1999. Die sp{\"a}ten Fr{\"u}hjahrsphasen hingegen, wechselten ihr Trendverhalten in diesen Perioden von einer Verfr{\"u}hung zu einer deutlichen Versp{\"a}tung wieder zu einer starken Verfr{\"u}hung. Dieser Unterschied in der Trendentwicklung zwischen fr{\"u}hen und sp{\"a}ten Fr{\"u}hjahrsphasen konnte auch f{\"u}r ganz Deutschland in den Perioden 1951 bis 1984 und 1984 bis 1999 beobachtet werden. Der bestimmende Einfluss der Temperatur auf die Fr{\"u}hjahrsphasen und ihr modifizierender Einfluss auf die Herbstphasen konnte best{\"a}tigt werden. Es zeigt sich jedoch, dass - die Ph{\"a}nologie bestimmende Funktionen der Temperatur nicht mit einem globalen j{\"a}hrlichen CO2 Signal korreliert waren, welches als Index f{\"u}r die globale Erw{\"a}rmung verwendet wurde - ein Index f{\"u}r grossr{\"a}umige regionale Zirkulationsmuster (NAO-Index) nur zu einem kleinen Teil die beobachtete ph{\"a}nologischen Variabilit{\"a}t erkl{\"a}ren konnte. Das beobachtete unterschiedliche Trendverhalten zwischen fr{\"u}hen und sp{\"a}ten Fr{\"u}hjahrsphasen konnte auf die unterschiedliche Entwicklung von M{\"a}rz- und Apriltemperaturen zur{\"u}ckgef{\"u}hrt werden. W{\"a}hrend sich die M{\"a}rztemperaturen im Laufe des 20. Jahrhunderts mit einer zunehmenden Variabilit{\"a}t in den letzten 50 Jahren stetig erh{\"o}ht haben, haben sich die Apriltemperaturen zwischen dem Ende der 1940er und Mitte der 1980er merklich abgek{\"u}hlt und dann wieder deutlich erw{\"a}rmt. Es wurde geschlussfolgert, dass die Verfr{\"u}hungen in der Fr{\"u}hjahrsph{\"a}nologie in den letzten Dekaden Teile multi-dekadischer Fluktuationen sind, welche sich nach Spezies und relevanter saisonaler Temperatur unterscheiden. Aufgrund dieser Fluktuationen konnte kein Zusammenhang mit einem globalen Erw{\"a}rmungsignal gefunden werden. Im Durchschnitt haben sich alle betrachteten Fr{\"u}hjahrsphasen zwischen 1951 und 1999 in Naturr{\"a}umen in Deutschland zwischen 5 und 20 Tagen verfr{\"u}ht. Ein starker Unterschied in der Verfr{\"u}hung zwischen fr{\"u}hen und sp{\"a}ten Fr{\"u}hjahrsphasen liegt an deren erw{\"a}hntem unterschiedlichen Verhalten. Die Blattverf{\"a}rbung hat sich zwischen 1951 und 1999 f{\"u}r alle Spezies versp{\"a}tet, aber nach 1984 im Durchschnitt verfr{\"u}ht. Die VP hat sich in Deutschland zwischen 1951 und 1999 um ca. 10 Tage verl{\"a}ngert. Es ist haupts{\"a}chlich die {\"A}nderung in den Fr{\"u}hjahrphasen, die zu einer {\"A}nderung in der potentiell absorbierten Strahlung (PAS) f{\"u}hrt. Dar{\"u}ber hinaus sind es die sp{\"a}ten Fr{\"u}hjahrsphasen, die pro Tag Verfr{\"u}hung st{\"a}rker profitieren, da die zus{\"a}tzlichen Tage l{\"a}nger undw{\"a}rmer sind als dies f{\"u}r die fr{\"u}hen Phasen der Fall ist. Um die relative {\"A}nderung in PAS im Vergleich der Spezies abzusch{\"a}tzen, m{\"u}ssen allerdings auch die Ver{\"a}nderungen in den Herbstphasen ber{\"u}cksichtigt werden. Der deutliche Unterschied zwischen fr{\"u}hen und sp{\"a}ten Fr{\"u}hjahrsphasen konnte durch die Anwendung einer neuen Methode zur Konstruktion von Zeitreihen herausgearbeitet werden. Der neue methodische Ansatz erlaubte die Ableitung verl{\"a}sslicher 100-j{\"a}hriger Zeitreihen und die Konstruktion von lokalen kombinierten Zeitreihen, welche die Datenverf{\"u}gbarkeit f{\"u}r die Modellentwicklung erh{\"o}hten. Ausser analysierten Protokollierungsfehlern wurden mikroklimatische, genetische und Beobachtereinfl{\"u}sse als Quellen von Unsicherheit in ph{\"a}nologischen Daten identifiziert. Ph{\"a}nologischen Beobachtungen eines Ortes k{\"o}nnen sch{\"a}tzungsweise 24 Tage um das parametrische Mittel schwanken.Dies unterst{\"u}tzt die 30-Tage Regel f{\"u}r die Detektion von Ausreissern. Neue Ph{\"a}nologiemodelle, die den Blattaustrieb aus t{\"a}glichen Temperaturreihen simulieren, wurden entwickelt. Diese Modelle basieren auf einfachen Interaktionen zwischen aktivierenden und hemmenden Substanzen, welche die Entwicklungsstadien einer Pflanze bestimmen. Im Allgemeinen konnten die neuen Modelle die Beobachtungsdaten besser simulieren als die klassischen Modelle. Weitere Hauptresultate waren: - Der Bias der klassischen Modelle, d.h. {\"U}bersch{\"a}tzung von fr{\"u}hen und Untersch{\"a}tzung von sp{\"a}ten Beobachtungen, konnte reduziert, aber nicht vollst{\"a}ndig eliminiert werden. - Die besten Modellvarianten f{\"u}r verschiedene Spezies wiesen darauf hin, dass f{\"u}r die sp{\"a}ten Fr{\"u}hjahrsphasen die Tagesl{\"a}nge eine wichtigere Rolle spielt als f{\"u}r die fr{\"u}hen Phasen. - Die Vernalisation spielte gegen{\"u}ber den Temperaturen kurz vor dem Blattaustrieb nur eine untergeordnete Rolle.}, language = {en} }