@article{JonesArpGrosseetal.2020, author = {Jones, Benjamin M. and Arp, Christopher D. and Grosse, Guido and Nitze, Ingmar and Lara, Mark J. and Whitman, Matthew S. and Farquharson, Louise M. and Kanevskiy, Mikhail and Parsekian, Andrew D. and Breen, Amy L. and Ohara, Nori and Rangel, Rodrigo Correa and Hinkel, Kenneth M.}, title = {Identifying historical and future potential lake drainage events on the western Arctic coastal plain of Alaska}, series = {Permafrost and Periglacial Processes}, volume = {31}, journal = {Permafrost and Periglacial Processes}, number = {1}, publisher = {Wiley}, address = {New York}, doi = {10.1002/ppp.2038}, pages = {110 -- 127}, year = {2020}, abstract = {Arctic lakes located in permafrost regions are susceptible to catastrophic drainage. In this study, we reconstructed historical lake drainage events on the western Arctic Coastal Plain of Alaska between 1955 and 2017 using USGS topographic maps, historical aerial photography (1955), and Landsat Imagery (ca. 1975, ca. 2000, and annually since 2000). We identified 98 lakes larger than 10 ha that partially (>25\% of area) or completely drained during the 62-year period. Decadal-scale lake drainage rates progressively declined from 2.0 lakes/yr (1955-1975), to 1.6 lakes/yr (1975-2000), and to 1.2 lakes/yr (2000-2017) in the ~30,000-km(2) study area. Detailed Landsat trend analysis between 2000 and 2017 identified two years, 2004 and 2006, with a cluster (five or more) of lake drainages probably associated with bank overtopping or headward erosion. To identify future potential lake drainages, we combined the historical lake drainage observations with a geospatial dataset describing lake elevation, hydrologic connectivity, and adjacent lake margin topographic gradients developed with a 5-m-resolution digital surface model. We identified ~1900 lakes likely to be prone to drainage in the future. Of the 20 lakes that drained in the most recent study period, 85\% were identified in this future lake drainage potential dataset. Our assessment of historical lake drainage magnitude, mechanisms and pathways, and identification of potential future lake drainages provides insights into how arctic lowland landscapes may change and evolve in the coming decades to centuries.}, language = {en} } @article{JonesArpWhitmanetal.2017, author = {Jones, Benjamin M. and Arp, Christopher D. and Whitman, Matthew S. and Nigro, Debora and Nitze, Ingmar and Beaver, John and Gadeke, Anne and Zuck, Callie and Liljedahl, Anna and Daanen, Ronald and Torvinen, Eric and Fritz, Stacey and Grosse, Guido}, title = {A lake-centric geospatial database to guide research and inform management decisions in an Arctic watershed in northern Alaska experiencing climate and land-use changes}, series = {AMBIO}, volume = {46}, journal = {AMBIO}, publisher = {Springer}, address = {Dordrecht}, issn = {0044-7447}, doi = {10.1007/s13280-017-0915-9}, pages = {769 -- 786}, year = {2017}, abstract = {Lakes are dominant and diverse landscape features in the Arctic, but conventional land cover classification schemes typically map them as a single uniform class. Here, we present a detailed lake-centric geospatial database for an Arctic watershed in northern Alaska. We developed a GIS dataset consisting of 4362 lakes that provides information on lake morphometry, hydrologic connectivity, surface area dynamics, surrounding terrestrial ecotypes, and other important conditions describing Arctic lakes. Analyzing the geospatial database relative to fish and bird survey data shows relations to lake depth and hydrologic connectivity, which are being used to guide research and aid in the management of aquatic resources in the National Petroleum Reserve in Alaska. Further development of similar geospatial databases is needed to better understand and plan for the impacts of ongoing climate and land-use changes occurring across lake-rich landscapes in the Arctic.}, language = {en} } @article{TapeJonesArpetal.2018, author = {Tape, Ken D. and Jones, Benjamin M. and Arp, Christopher D. and Nitze, Ingmar and Grosse, Guido}, title = {Tundra be dammed}, series = {Global change biology}, volume = {24}, journal = {Global change biology}, number = {10}, publisher = {Wiley}, address = {Hoboken}, issn = {1354-1013}, doi = {10.1111/gcb.14332}, pages = {4478 -- 4488}, year = {2018}, abstract = {Increasing air temperatures are changing the arctic tundra biome. Permafrost is thawing, snow duration is decreasing, shrub vegetation is proliferating, and boreal wildlife is encroaching. Here we present evidence of the recent range expansion of North American beaver (Castor canadensis) into the Arctic, and consider how this ecosystem engineer might reshape the landscape, biodiversity, and ecosystem processes. We developed a remote sensing approach that maps formation and disappearance of ponds associated with beaver activity. Since 1999, 56 new beaver pond complexes were identified, indicating that beavers are colonizing a predominantly tundra region (18,293km(2)) of northwest Alaska. It is unclear how improved tundra stream habitat, population rebound following overtrapping for furs, or other factors are contributing to beaver range expansion. We discuss rates and likely routes of tundra beaver colonization, as well as effects on permafrost, stream ice regimes, and freshwater and riparian habitat. Beaver ponds and associated hydrologic changes are thawing permafrost. Pond formation increases winter water temperatures in the pond and downstream, likely creating new and more varied aquatic habitat, but specific biological implications are unknown. Beavers create dynamic wetlands and are agents of disturbance that may enhance ecosystem responses to warming in the Arctic.}, language = {en} } @article{CreightonParsekianAngelopoulosetal.2018, author = {Creighton, Andrea L. and Parsekian, Andrew D. and Angelopoulos, Michael and Jones, Benjamin M. and Bondurant, A. and Engram, M. and Lenz, Josefine and Overduin, Pier Paul and Grosse, Guido and Babcock, E. and Arp, Christopher D.}, title = {Transient Electromagnetic Surveys for the Determination of Talik Depth and Geometry Beneath Thermokarst Lakes}, series = {Journal of geophysical research : Solid earth}, volume = {123}, journal = {Journal of geophysical research : Solid earth}, number = {11}, publisher = {American Geophysical Union}, address = {Washington}, issn = {2169-9313}, doi = {10.1029/2018JB016121}, pages = {9310 -- 9323}, year = {2018}, abstract = {Thermokarst lakes are prevalent in Arctic coastal lowland regions and sublake permafrost degradation and talik development contributes to greenhouse gas emissions by tapping the large permafrost carbon pool. Whereas lateral thermokarst lake expansion is readily apparent through remote sensing and shoreline measurements, sublake thawed sediment conditions and talik growth are difficult to measure. Here we combine transient electromagnetic surveys with thermal modeling, backed up by measured permafrost properties and radiocarbon ages, to reveal closed-talik geometry associated with a thermokarst lake in continuous permafrost. To improve access to talik geometry data, we conducted surveys along three transient electromagnetic transects perpendicular to lakeshores with different decadal-scale expansion rates of 0.16, 0.38, and 0.58m/year. We modeled thermal development of the talik using boundary conditions based on field data from the lake, surrounding permafrost and a borehole, independent of the transient electromagnetics. A talik depth of 91m was determined from analysis of the transient electromagnetic surveys. Using a lake initiation age of 1400years before present and available subsurface properties the results from thermal modeling of the lake center arrived at a best estimate talk depth of 80m, which is on the same order of magnitude as the results from the transient electromagnetic survey. Our approach has provided a noninvasive estimate of talik geometry suitable for comparable settings throughout circum-Arctic coastal lowland regions.}, language = {en} } @article{NitzeGrosseJonesetal.2017, author = {Nitze, Ingmar and Grosse, Guido and Jones, Benjamin M. and Arp, Christopher D. and Ulrich, Mathias and Fedorov, Alexander and Veremeeva, Alexandra}, title = {Landsat-Based Trend Analysis of Lake Dynamics across Northern Permafrost Regions}, series = {Remote sensing}, volume = {9}, journal = {Remote sensing}, publisher = {MDPI}, address = {Basel}, issn = {2072-4292}, doi = {10.3390/rs9070640}, pages = {28}, year = {2017}, abstract = {Lakes are a ubiquitous landscape feature in northern permafrost regions. They have a strong impact on carbon, energy and water fluxes and can be quite responsive to climate change. The monitoring of lake change in northern high latitudes, at a sufficiently accurate spatial and temporal resolution, is crucial for understanding the underlying processes driving lake change. To date, lake change studies in permafrost regions were based on a variety of different sources, image acquisition periods and single snapshots, and localized analysis, which hinders the comparison of different regions. Here, we present a methodology based on machine-learning based classification of robust trends of multi-spectral indices of Landsat data (TM, ETM+, OLI) and object-based lake detection, to analyze and compare the individual, local and regional lake dynamics of four different study sites (Alaska North Slope, Western Alaska, Central Yakutia, Kolyma Lowland) in the northern permafrost zone from 1999 to 2014. Regional patterns of lake area change on the Alaska North Slope (-0.69\%), Western Alaska (-2.82\%), and Kolyma Lowland (-0.51\%) largely include increases due to thermokarst lake expansion, but more dominant lake area losses due to catastrophic lake drainage events. In contrast, Central Yakutia showed a remarkable increase in lake area of 48.48\%, likely resulting from warmer and wetter climate conditions over the latter half of the study period. Within all study regions, variability in lake dynamics was associated with differences in permafrost characteristics, landscape position (i.e., upland vs. lowland), and surface geology. With the global availability of Landsat data and a consistent methodology for processing the input data derived from robust trends of multi-spectral indices, we demonstrate a transferability, scalability and consistency of lake change analysis within the northern permafrost region.}, language = {en} }