@techreport{AngenendtKochTjaden2023,
  type      = {Working Paper},
  author    = {Angenendt, Steffen and Koch, Anne and Tjaden, Jasper},
  title     = {Predicting irregular migration},
  series = {high hopes, meagre results},
  volume    = {11},
  journal   = {high hopes, meagre results},
  publisher = {Stiftung Wissenschaft und Politik (SWP)},
  address   = {Berlin},
  issn      = {2747-5123},
  doi       = {10.18449/2023RP11},
  pages     = {36},
  year      = {2023},
  abstract  = {German and European migration policy operates in permanent crisis mode. Sudden increases in irregular immigration create a sense of loss of control, which is instrumentalised by populist forces. This has generated great interest in quantitative migration predictions. High expectations are placed in the AI-based tools currently under devel\&\#x00ad;op\&\#x00ad;ment for forecasting irregular migration. The potential applications of these tools are manifold. They range from managing and strengthening the EU's reception capacity and border protections to configuring humanitarian aid provision and longer-term planning of development programmes. There is a significant gap between the expectations placed in the new instruments and their practical utility. Technical limits exist, medium-term forecasts are methodologically implausible, and channels for feeding the results into political decision-making processes are lacking. The great demand for predictions is driven by the political functions of migration prediction, which include its uses in political communication, funding acquisition and legitimisation of political decisions. Investment in the quality of the underlying data will be more productive than developing a succession of new prediction tools. Funding for applications in emergency relief and development cooperation should be prioritised. Crisis early warning and risk analysis should also be strengthened and their networking improved.},
  language  = {en}
}
@techreport{BrodeurMikolaCooketal.2024,
  type      = {Working Paper},
  author    = {Brodeur, Abel and Mikola, Derek and Cook, Nikolai and Brailey, Thomas and Briggs, Ryan and Gendre, Alexandra de and Dupraz, Yannick and Fiala, Lenka and Gabani, Jacopo and Gauriot, Romain and Haddad, Joanne and Lima, Goncalo and Ankel-Peters, J{\"o}rg and Dreber, Anna and Campbell, Douglas and Kattan, Lamis and Fages, Diego Marino and Mierisch, Fabian and Sun, Pu and Wright, Taylor and Connolly, Marie and Hoces de la Guardia, Fernando and Johannesson, Magnus and Miguel, Edward and Vilhuber, Lars and Abarca, Alejandro and Acharya, Mahesh and Adjisse, Sossou Simplice and Akhtar, Ahwaz and Lizardi, Eduardo Alberto Ramirez and Albrecht, Sabina and Andersen, Synve Nygaard and Andlib, Zubaria and Arrora, Falak and Ash, Thomas and Bacher, Etienne and Bachler, Sebastian and Bacon, F{\´e}lix and Bagues, Manuel and Balogh, Timea and Batmanov, Alisher and Barschkett, Mara and Basdil, B. Kaan and Dower, Jaromneda and Castek, Ondrej and Caviglia-Harris, Jill and Strand, Gabriella Chauca and Chen, Shi and Chzhen, Asya and Chung, Jong and Collins, Jason and Coppock, Alexander and Cordeau, Hugo and Couillard, Ben and Crechet, Jonathan and Crippa, Lorenzo and Cui, Jeanne and Czymara, Christian and Daarstad, Haley and Dao, Danh Chi and Dao, Dong and Schmandt, Marco David and Linde, Astrid de and Melo, Lucas De and Deer, Lachlan and Vera, Micole De and Dimitrova, Velichka and Dollbaum, Jan Fabian and Dollbaum, Jan Matti and Donnelly, Michael and Huynh, Luu Duc Toan and Dumbalska, Tsvetomira and Duncan, Jamie and Duong, Kiet Tuan and Duprey, Thibaut and Dworschak, Christoph and Ellingsrud, Sigmund and Elminejad, Ali and Eissa, Yasmine and Erhart, Andrea and Etingin-Frati, Giulian and Fatemi-Pour, Elaheh and Federice, Alexa and Feld, Jan and Fenig, Guidon and Firouzjaeiangalougah, Mojtaba and Fleisje, Erlend and Fortier-Chouinard, Alexandre and Engel, Julia Francesca and Fries, Tilman and Fortier, Reid and Fr{\´e}chet, Nadjim and Galipeau, Thomas and Gallegos, Sebasti{\´a}n and Gangji, Areez and Gao, Xiaoying and Garnache, Clo{\´e} and G{\´a}sp{\´a}r, Attila and Gavrilova, Evelina and Ghosh, Arijit and Gibney, Garreth and Gibson, Grant and Godager, Geir and Goff, Leonard and Gong, Da and Gonz{\´a}lez, Javier and Gretton, Jeremy and Griffa, Cristina and Grigoryeva, Idaliya and Grtting, Maja and Guntermann, Eric and Guo, Jiaqi and Gugushvili, Alexi and Habibnia, Hooman and H{\"a}ffner, Sonja and Hall, Jonathan D. and Hammar, Olle and Kordt, Amund Hanson and Hashimoto, Barry and Hartley, Jonathan S. and Hausladen, Carina I. and Havr{\´a}nek, Tom{\´a}š and Hazen, Jacob and He, Harry and Hepplewhite, Matthew and Herrera-Rodriguez, Mario and Heuer, Felix and Heyes, Anthony and Ho, Anson T. Y. and Holmes, Jonathan and Holzknecht, Armando and Hsu, Yu-Hsiang Dexter and Hu, Shiang-Hung and Huang, Yu-Shiuan and Huebener, Mathias and Huber, Christoph and Huynh, Kim P. and Irsova, Zuzana and Isler, Ozan and Jakobsson, Niklas and Frith, Michael James and Jananji, Rapha{\"e}l and Jayalath, Tharaka A. and Jetter, Michael and John, Jenny and Forshaw, Rachel Joy and Juan, Felipe and Kadriu, Valon and Karim, Sunny and Kelly, Edmund and Dang, Duy Khanh Hoang and Khushboo, Tazia and Kim, Jin and Kjellsson, Gustav and Kjelsrud, Anders and Kotsadam, Andreas and Korpershoek, Jori and Krashinsky, Lewis and Kundu, Suranjana and Kustov, Alexander and Lalayev, Nurlan and Langlois, Audr{\´e}e and Laufer, Jill and Lee-Whiting, Blake and Leibing, Andreas and Lenz, Gabriel and Levin, Joel and Li, Peng and Li, Tongzhe and Lin, Yuchen and Listo, Ariel and Liu, Dan and Lu, Xuewen and Lukmanova, Elvina and Luscombe, Alex and Lusher, Lester R. and Lyu, Ke and Ma, Hai and M{\"a}der, Nicolas and Makate, Clifton and Malmberg, Alice and Maitra, Adit and Mandas, Marco and Marcus, Jan and Margaryan, Shushanik and M{\´a}rk, Lili and Martignano, Andres and Marsh, Abigail and Masetto, Isabella and McCanny, Anthony and McManus, Emma and McWay, Ryan and Metson, Lennard and Kinge, Jonas Minet and Mishra, Sumit and Mohnen, Myra and M{\"o}ller, Jakob and Montambeault, Rosalie and Montpetit, S{\´e}bastien and Morin, Louis-Philippe and Morris, Todd and Moser, Scott and Motoki, Fabio and Muehlenbachs, Lucija and Musulan, Andreea and Musumeci, Marco and Nabin, Munirul and Nchare, Karim and Neubauer, Florian and Nguyen, Quan M. P. and Nguyen, Tuan and Nguyen-Tien, Viet and Niazi, Ali and Nikolaishvili, Giorgi and Nordstrom, Ardyn and N{\"u}, Patrick and Odermatt, Angela and Olson, Matt and ien, Henning and {\"O}lkers, Tim and Vert, Miquel Oliver i. and Oral, Emre and Oswald, Christian and Ousman, Ali and {\"O}zak, {\"O}mer and Pandey, Shubham and Pavlov, Alexandre and Pelli, Martino and Penheiro, Romeo and Park, RyuGyung and Martel, Eva P{\´e}rez and Petrovičov{\´a}, Tereza and Phan, Linh and Prettyman, Alexa and Proch{\´a}zka, Jakub and Putri, Aqila and Quandt, Julian and Qiu, Kangyu and Nguyen, Loan Quynh Thi and Rahman, Andaleeb and Rea, Carson H. and Reiremo, Adam and Ren{\´e}e, La{\"e}titia and Richardson, Joseph and Rivers, Nicholas and Rodrigues, Bruno and Roelofs, William and Roemer, Tobias and Rogeberg, Ole and Rose, Julian and Roskos-Ewoldsen, Andrew and Rosmer, Paul and Sabada, Barbara and Saberian, Soodeh and Salamanca, Nicolas and Sator, Georg and Sawyer, Antoine and Scates, Daniel and Schl{\"u}ter, Elmar and Sells, Cameron and Sen, Sharmi and Sethi, Ritika and Shcherbiak, Anna and Sogaolu, Moyosore and Soosalu, Matt and Srensen, Erik and Sovani, Manali and Spencer, Noah and Staubli, Stefan and Stans, Renske and Stewart, Anya and Stips, Felix and Stockley, Kieran and Strobel, Stephenson and Struby, Ethan and Tang, John and Tanrisever, Idil and Yang, Thomas Tao and Tastan, Ipek and Tatić, Dejan and Tatlow, Benjamin and Seuyong, F{\´e}raud Tchuisseu and Th{\´e}riault, R{\´e}mi and Thivierge, Vincent and Tian, Wenjie and Toma, Filip-Mihai and Totarelli, Maddalena and Tran, Van-Anh and Truong, Hung and Tsoy, Nikita and Tuzcuoglu, Kerem and Ubfal, Diego and Villalobos, Laura and Walterskirchen, Julian and Wang, Joseph Taoyi and Wattal, Vasudha and Webb, Matthew D. and Weber, Bryan and Weisser, Reinhard and Weng, Wei-Chien and Westheide, Christian and White, Kimberly and Winter, Jacob and Wochner, Timo and Woerman, Matt and Wong, Jared and Woodard, Ritchie and Wroński, Marcin and Yazbeck, Myra and Yang, Gustav Chung and Yap, Luther and Yassin, Kareman and Ye, Hao and Yoon, Jin Young and Yurris, Chris and Zahra, Tahreen and Zaneva, Mirela and Zayat, Aline and Zhang, Jonathan and Zhao, Ziwei and Yaolang, Zhong},
  title     = {Mass reproducibility and replicability},
  series = {I4R discussion paper series},
  journal   = {I4R discussion paper series},
  number    = {107},
  publisher = {Institute for Replication},
  address   = {Essen},
  issn      = {2752-1931},
  pages     = {250},
  year      = {2024},
  abstract  = {This study pushes our understanding of research reliability by reproducing and replicating claims from 110 papers in leading economic and political science journals. The analysis involves computational reproducibility checks and robustness assessments. It reveals several patterns. First, we uncover a high rate of fully computationally reproducible results (over 85\%). Second, excluding minor issues like missing packages or broken pathways, we uncover coding errors for about 25\% of studies, with some studies containing multiple errors. Third, we test the robustness of the results to 5,511 re-analyses. We find a robustness reproducibility of about 70\%. Robustness reproducibility rates are relatively higher for re-analyses that introduce new data and lower for re-analyses that change the sample or the definition of the dependent variable. Fourth, 52\% of re-analysis effect size estimates are smaller than the original published estimates and the average statistical significance of a re-analysis is 77\% of the original. Lastly, we rely on six teams of researchers working independently to answer eight additional research questions on the determinants of robustness reproducibility. Most teams find a negative relationship between replicators' experience and reproducibility, while finding no relationship between reproducibility and the provision of intermediate or even raw data combined with the necessary cleaning codes.},
  language  = {en}
}
@techreport{SiedlerAngerChristophetal.2024,
  type      = {Working Paper},
  author    = {Siedler, Thomas and Anger, Silke and Christoph, Bernhard and Galkiewicz, Agata Danuta and Margaryan, Shushanik and Peter, Frauke and Sandner, Malte},
  title     = {War, international spillovers, and adolescents},
  series = {Discussion paper series},
  volume    = {16921},
  journal   = {Discussion paper series},
  publisher = {IZA},
  address   = {Bonn},
  issn      = {2365-9793},
  pages     = {43},
  year      = {2024},
  abstract  = {Using novel longitudinal data, this paper studies the short- and medium-term effects of Russia's invasion of Ukraine on February 24, 2022 on social trust of adolescents in Germany. Comparing adolescents who responded to our survey shortly before the start of the war with those who responded shortly after the conflict began and applying difference-in-differences (DiD) models over time, we find a significant decline in the outcome after the war started. These findings provide new evidence on how armed conflicts influence social trust and well-being among young people in a country not directly involved in the war.},
  language  = {en}
}
@techreport{LessmannGrunerKalkuhletal.2024,
  type      = {Working Paper},
  author    = {Lessmann, Kai and Gruner, Friedemann and Kalkuhl, Matthias and Edenhofer, Ottmar},
  title     = {Emissions Trading with Clean-up Certificates},
  series = {CEPA Discussion Papers},
  journal   = {CEPA Discussion Papers},
  number    = {79},
  issn      = {2628-653X},
  doi       = {10.25932/publishup-64136},
  url       = {http://nbn-resolving.de/urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-641368},
  pages     = {35},
  year      = {2024},
  abstract  = {We analyze how conventional emissions trading schemes (ETS) can be modified by introducing "clean-up certificates" to allow for a phase of net-negative emissions. Clean-up certificates bundle the permission to emit CO2 with the obligation for its removal. We show that demand for such certificates is determined by cost-saving technological progress, the discount rate and the length of the compliance period. Introducing extra clean-up certificates into an existing ETS reduces near-term carbon prices and mitigation efforts. In contrast, substituting ETS allowances with clean-up certificates reduces cumulative emissions without depressing carbon prices or mitigation in the near term. We calibrate our model to the EU ETS and identify reforms where simultaneously (i) ambition levels rise, (ii) climate damages fall, (iii) revenues from carbon prices rise and (iv) carbon prices and aggregate mitigation cost fall. For reducing climate damages, roughly half of the issued clean-up certificates should replace conventional ETS allowances. In the context of the EU ETS, a European Carbon Central Bank could manage the implementation of cleanup certificates and could serve as an enforcement mechanism.},
  language  = {en}
}
@techreport{BarschkettHuebenerLeibingetal.2023,
  type      = {Working Paper},
  author    = {Barschkett, Mara and Huebener, Mathias and Leibing, Andreas and Marcus, Jan and Margaryan, Shushanik},
  title     = {Replication of Atwood's (2022) the long-term effects of measles vaccination on earnings and employment},
  series = {I4R discussion paper series},
  journal   = {I4R discussion paper series},
  number    = {33},
  publisher = {Institute for Replication},
  address   = {Essen},
  issn      = {2752-1931},
  pages     = {22},
  year      = {2023},
  abstract  = {Atwood (2022) analyzes the effects of the 1963 U.S. measles vaccination on longrun labor market outcomes, using a generalized difference-in-differences approach. We reproduce the results of this paper and perform a battery of robustness checks. Overall, we confirm that the measles vaccination had positive labor market effects. While the negative effect on the likelihood of living in poverty and the positive effect on the probability of being employed are very robust across the different specifications, the headline estimate-the effect on earnings-is more sensitive to the exclusion of certain regions and survey years.},
  language  = {en}
}
@techreport{BorckMulder2024,
  type      = {Working Paper},
  author    = {Borck, Rainald and Mulder, Peter},
  title     = {Energy policies and pollution in two developing country cities},
  series = {CEPA Discussion Papers},
  journal   = {CEPA Discussion Papers},
  number    = {78},
  issn      = {2628-653X},
  doi       = {10.25932/publishup-63847},
  url       = {http://nbn-resolving.de/urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-638472},
  pages     = {37},
  year      = {2024},
  abstract  = {We study the effect of energy and transport policies on pollution in two developing country cities. We use a quantitative equilibrium model with choice of housing, energy use, residential location, transport mode, and energy technology. Pollution comes from commuting and residential energy use. The model parameters are calibrated to replicate key variables for two developing country cities, Maputo, Mozambique, and Yogyakarta, Indonesia. In the counterfactual simulations, we study how various transport and energy policies affect equilibrium pollution. Policies may be induce rebound effects from increasing residential energy use or switching to high emission modes or locations. In general, these rebound effects tend to be largest for subsidies to public transport or modern residential energy technology.},
  language  = {en}
}
@techreport{AndresBruttel2024,
  type      = {Working Paper},
  author    = {Andres, Maximilian and Bruttel, Lisa},
  title     = {Communicating Cartel Intentions},
  series = {CEPA Discussion Papers},
  journal   = {CEPA Discussion Papers},
  number    = {77},
  issn      = {2628-653X},
  doi       = {10.25932/publishup-63846},
  url       = {http://nbn-resolving.de/urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-638469},
  pages     = {36},
  year      = {2024},
  abstract  = {While the economic harm of cartels is caused by their price-increasing effect, sanctioning by courts rather targets at the underlying process of firms reaching a price-fixing agreement. This paper provides experimental evidence on the question whether such sanctioning meets the economic target, i.e., whether evidence of a collusive meeting of the firms and of the content of their communication reliably predicts subsequent prices. We find that already the mere mutual agreement to meet predicts a strong increase in prices. Conversely, express distancing from communication completely nullifies its otherwise price-increasing effect. Using machine learning, we show that communication only increases prices if it is very explicit about how the cartel plans to behave.},
  language  = {en}
}
@techreport{SchwabKrauseMassoud2023,
  type      = {Working Paper},
  author    = {Schwab, Regine and Krause, Werner and Massoud, Samer},
  title     = {The bombing of hospitals and local violence dynamics in civil wars},
  series = {HiCN Working paper},
  volume    = {403},
  journal   = {HiCN Working paper},
  publisher = {Households in Conflict Network},
  address   = {Berlin},
  pages     = {89},
  year      = {2023},
  abstract  = {The impact of civilian harm on strategic outcomes in war has been the subject of persistent debate. However, the literature has primarily focused on civilian casualties, thereby overlooking the targeting of civilian infrastructure, which is a recurrent phenomenon during war. This study fills this gap by examining the targeting of healthcare, one of the most indispensable infrastructures during war and peace time. We contend that attacks on medical facilities are distinct from direct violence against civilians. Because they are typically unrelated to military dynamics, the targeting of hospitals is a highly visible form and powerful signal of civilian victimization. To assess its effects, we analyze newly collected data on such attacks by pro-government forces and event data on combat activities in Northwest Syria (2017-2020). Applying a new approach for panel data analysis that combines matching methods with a difference-in-differences estimation, we examine the causal effect of counterinsurgent bombings on subsequent violent events. Distinguishing between regime-initiated and insurgent-initiated combat activities and their associated fatalities, we find that the targeting of hospitals increases insurgent violence. We supplement the quantitative analysis with unique qualitative evidence derived from interviews, which demonstrates that hospital bombings induce rebels to resist more fiercely through two mechanisms: intrinsic motivations and civilian pressure. The results have important implications for the effects of state-led violence and the strength of legal norms that protect noncombatants.},
  language  = {en}
}
@techreport{KritikosMalirantaNippalaetal.2024,
  type      = {Working Paper},
  author    = {Kritikos, Alexander and Maliranta, Mika and Nippala, Veera and Nurmi, Satu},
  title     = {Does gender of firm ownership matter?},
  series = {CEPA Discussion Papers},
  journal   = {CEPA Discussion Papers},
  number    = {76},
  issn      = {2628-653X},
  doi       = {10.25932/publishup-63619},
  url       = {http://nbn-resolving.de/urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-636194},
  pages     = {1 -- 39},
  year      = {2024},
  abstract  = {We examine how the gender of business-owners is related to the wages paid to female relative to male employees working in their firms. Using Finnish register data and employing firm fixed effects, we find that the gender pay gap is - starting from a gender pay gap of 11 to 12 percent - two to three percentage-points lower for hourly wages in female-owned firms than in male-owned firms. Results are robust to how the wage is measured, as well as to various further robustness checks. More importantly, we find substantial differences between industries. While, for instance, in the manufacturing sector, the gender of the owner plays no role for the gender pay gap, in several service sector industries, like ICT or business services, no or a negligible gender pay gap can be found, but only when firms are led by female business owners. Businesses in male ownership maintain a gender pay gap of around 10 percent also in the latter industries. With increasing firm size, the influence of the gender of the owner, however, fades. In large firms, it seems that others - firm managers - determine wages and no differences in the pay gap are observed between male- and female-owned firms.},
  language  = {en}
}
@techreport{DebreSommerer2023,
  type      = {Working Paper},
  author    = {Debre, Maria Josepha and Sommerer, Thomas},
  title     = {Weathering the storm?},
  series = {IGCC series on authoritarian regimes and international organizations},
  journal   = {IGCC series on authoritarian regimes and international organizations},
  publisher = {UC Institute on Global Conflict and Cooperation},
  address   = {La Jolla, CA},
  pages     = {38},
  year      = {2023},
  abstract  = {Democratization scholars are currently debating if we are indeed witnessing a third wave of autocratization. While this has led to an extensive debate about the future of the liberal international order, we still know relatively little about the consequences of autocratization for international organizations (IOs). In this article, we explore to what extent autocratization has led to changes in the composition of IO membership. We propose three different ways of conceptualizing autocratization of IO membership. We argue that we should move away from a dichotomous understanding of regime type and regime change, but rather focus on composition of subregime types to understand current developments. We build on updated membership data for 73 IOs through 2020 to map membership configurations based on the V-Dem Electoral Democracy Index. Contrary to current debates on the crisis of the liberal order, we find that many IOs are not (yet) affected by broad autocratization of their membership that would endanger democratic majorities or overall democratic densities. However, we also observe the disappearance of formerly homogenous democratic clubs due to democratic backsliding in a number of European and Latin American IO member states, as well as a return of autocratic clubs in Southeast Asia and Southern Africa. These findings have important implications for the broader research agenda on international democracy promotion and human right protection as well as the study of legitimacy and the effectiveness of international organizations.},
  language  = {en}
}