@article{MalemShinitskiOpperReichetal.2020,
  author    = {Malem-Shinitski, Noa and Opper, Manfred and Reich, Sebastian and Schwetlick, Lisa and Seelig, Stefan A. and Engbert, Ralf},
  title     = {A mathematical model of local and global attention in natural scene viewing},
  series = {PLoS Computational Biology : a new community journal},
  volume    = {16},
  journal   = {PLoS Computational Biology : a new community journal},
  number    = {12},
  publisher = {PLoS},
  address   = {San Fransisco},
  issn      = {1553-734X},
  doi       = {10.1371/journal.pcbi.1007880},
  pages     = {21},
  year      = {2020},
  abstract  = {Author summary <br /> Switching between local and global attention is a general strategy in human information processing. We investigate whether this strategy is a viable approach to model sequences of fixations generated by a human observer in a free viewing task with natural scenes. Variants of the basic model are used to predict the experimental data based on Bayesian inference. Results indicate a high predictive power for both aggregated data and individual differences across observers. The combination of a novel model with state-of-the-art Bayesian methods lends support to our two-state model using local and global internal attention states for controlling eye movements. <br /> Understanding the decision process underlying gaze control is an important question in cognitive neuroscience with applications in diverse fields ranging from psychology to computer vision. The decision for choosing an upcoming saccade target can be framed as a selection process between two states: Should the observer further inspect the information near the current gaze position (local attention) or continue with exploration of other patches of the given scene (global attention)? Here we propose and investigate a mathematical model motivated by switching between these two attentional states during scene viewing. The model is derived from a minimal set of assumptions that generates realistic eye movement behavior. We implemented a Bayesian approach for model parameter inference based on the model's likelihood function. In order to simplify the inference, we applied data augmentation methods that allowed the use of conjugate priors and the construction of an efficient Gibbs sampler. This approach turned out to be numerically efficient and permitted fitting interindividual differences in saccade statistics. Thus, the main contribution of our modeling approach is two-fold; first, we propose a new model for saccade generation in scene viewing. Second, we demonstrate the use of novel methods from Bayesian inference in the field of scan path modeling.},
  language  = {en}
}
@article{MolkenthinDonnerReichetal.2022,
  author    = {Molkenthin, Christian and Donner, Christian and Reich, Sebastian and Z{\"o}ller, Gert and Hainzl, Sebastian and Holschneider, Matthias and Opper, Manfred},
  title     = {GP-ETAS: semiparametric Bayesian inference for the spatio-temporal epidemic type aftershock sequence model},
  series = {Statistics and Computing},
  volume    = {32},
  journal   = {Statistics and Computing},
  number    = {2},
  publisher = {Springer},
  address   = {Dordrecht},
  issn      = {0960-3174},
  doi       = {10.1007/s11222-022-10085-3},
  pages     = {25},
  year      = {2022},
  abstract  = {The spatio-temporal epidemic type aftershock sequence (ETAS) model is widely used to describe the self-exciting nature of earthquake occurrences. While traditional inference methods provide only point estimates of the model parameters, we aim at a fully Bayesian treatment of model inference, allowing naturally to incorporate prior knowledge and uncertainty quantification of the resulting estimates. Therefore, we introduce a highly flexible, non-parametric representation for the spatially varying ETAS background intensity through a Gaussian process (GP) prior. Combined with classical triggering functions this results in a new model formulation, namely the GP-ETAS model. We enable tractable and efficient Gibbs sampling by deriving an augmented form of the GP-ETAS inference problem. This novel sampling approach allows us to assess the posterior model variables conditioned on observed earthquake catalogues, i.e., the spatial background intensity and the parameters of the triggering function. Empirical results on two synthetic data sets indicate that GP-ETAS outperforms standard models and thus demonstrate the predictive power for observed earthquake catalogues including uncertainty quantification for the estimated parameters. Finally, a case study for the l'Aquila region, Italy, with the devastating event on 6 April 2009, is presented.},
  language  = {en}
}
@article{MaoutsaReichOpper2020,
  author    = {Maoutsa, Dimitra and Reich, Sebastian and Opper, Manfred},
  title     = {Interacting particle solutions of Fokker-Planck equations through gradient-log-density estimation},
  series = {Entropy},
  volume    = {22},
  journal   = {Entropy},
  number    = {8},
  publisher = {MDPI},
  address   = {Basel},
  issn      = {1099-4300},
  doi       = {10.3390/e22080802},
  pages     = {35},
  year      = {2020},
  abstract  = {Fokker-Planck equations are extensively employed in various scientific fields as they characterise the behaviour of stochastic systems at the level of probability density functions. Although broadly used, they allow for analytical treatment only in limited settings, and often it is inevitable to resort to numerical solutions. Here, we develop a computational approach for simulating the time evolution of Fokker-Planck solutions in terms of a mean field limit of an interacting particle system. The interactions between particles are determined by the gradient of the logarithm of the particle density, approximated here by a novel statistical estimator. The performance of our method shows promising results, with more accurate and less fluctuating statistics compared to direct stochastic simulations of comparable particle number. Taken together, our framework allows for effortless and reliable particle-based simulations of Fokker-Planck equations in low and moderate dimensions. The proposed gradient-log-density estimator is also of independent interest, for example, in the context of optimal control.},
  language  = {en}
}
@article{MalemShinitskiOjedaOpper2022,
  author    = {Malem-Shinitski, Noa and Ojeda, Cesar and Opper, Manfred},
  title     = {Variational bayesian inference for nonlinear hawkes process with gaussian process self-effects},
  series = {Entropy},
  volume    = {24},
  journal   = {Entropy},
  number    = {3},
  publisher = {MDPI},
  address   = {Basel},
  issn      = {1099-4300},
  doi       = {10.3390/e24030356},
  pages     = {22},
  year      = {2022},
  abstract  = {Traditionally, Hawkes processes are used to model time-continuous point processes with history dependence. Here, we propose an extended model where the self-effects are of both excitatory and inhibitory types and follow a Gaussian Process. Whereas previous work either relies on a less flexible parameterization of the model, or requires a large amount of data, our formulation allows for both a flexible model and learning when data are scarce. We continue the line of work of Bayesian inference for Hawkes processes, and derive an inference algorithm by performing inference on an aggregated sum of Gaussian Processes. Approximate Bayesian inference is achieved via data augmentation, and we describe a mean-field variational inference approach to learn the model parameters. To demonstrate the flexibility of the model we apply our methodology on data from different domains and compare it to previously reported results.},
  language  = {en}
}