@article{LeinsBanitzGrimmetal.2020,
  author    = {Leins, Johannes A. and Banitz, Thomas and Grimm, Volker and Drechsler, Martin},
  title     = {High-resolution PVA along large environmental gradients to model the combined effects of climate change and land use timing},
  series = {Ecological modelling : international journal on ecological modelling and systems ecology},
  volume    = {440},
  journal   = {Ecological modelling : international journal on ecological modelling and systems ecology},
  publisher = {Elsevier},
  address   = {Amsterdam},
  issn      = {0304-3800},
  doi       = {10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2020.109355},
  pages     = {15},
  year      = {2020},
  abstract  = {Both climate change and land use regimes affect the viability of populations, but they are often studied separately. Moreover, population viability analyses (PVAs) often ignore the effects of large environmental gradients and use temporal resolutions that are too coarse to take into account that different stages of a population's life cycle may be affected differently by climate change. Here, we present the High-resolution Large Environmental Gradient (HiLEG) model and apply it in a PVA with daily resolution based on daily climate projections for Northwest Germany. We used the large marsh grasshopper (LMG) as the target species and investigated (1) the effects of climate change on the viability and spatial distribution of the species, (2) the influence of the timing of grassland mowing on the species and (3) the interaction between the effects of climate change and grassland mowing. The stageand cohort-based model was run for the spatially differentiated environmental conditions temperature and soil moisture across the whole study region. We implemented three climate change scenarios and analyzed the population dynamics for four consecutive 20-year periods. Climate change alone would lead to an expansion of the regions suitable for the LMG, as warming accelerates development and due to reduced drought stress. However, in combination with land use, the timing of mowing was crucial, as this disturbance causes a high mortality rate in the aboveground life stages. Assuming the same date of mowing throughout the region, the impact on viability varied greatly between regions due to the different climate conditions. The regional negative effects of the mowing date can be divided into five phases: (1) In early spring, the populations were largely unaffected in all the regions; (2) between late spring and early summer, they were severely affected only in warm regions; (3) in summer, all the populations were severely affected so that they could hardly survive; (4) between late summer and early autumn, they were severely affected in cold regions; and (5) in autumn, the populations were equally affected across all regions. The duration and start of each phase differed slightly depending on the climate change scenario and simulation period, but overall, they showed the same pattern. Our model can be used to identify regions of concern and devise management recommendations. The model can be adapted to the life cycle of different target species, climate projections and disturbance regimes. We show with our adaption of the HiLEG model that high-resolution PVAs and applications on large environmental gradients can be reconciled to develop conservation strategies capable of dealing with multiple stressors.},
  language  = {en}
}
@article{LuisHorreoLuisaPelaezBreedveldetal.2019,
  author    = {Luis Horreo, Jose and Luisa Pelaez, Maria and Breedveld, Merel Cathelijne and Suarez, Teresa and Urieta, Maria and Fitze, Patrick S.},
  title     = {Population structure of the oviparous South-West European common lizard},
  series = {European journal of wildlife research},
  volume    = {65},
  journal   = {European journal of wildlife research},
  number    = {1},
  publisher = {Springer},
  address   = {New York},
  issn      = {1612-4642},
  doi       = {10.1007/s10344-018-1242-6},
  pages     = {9},
  year      = {2019},
  abstract  = {Gene flow is an important factor determining the evolution of a species, since it directly affects population structure and species' adaptation. Here, we investigated population structure, population history, and migration among populations covering the entire distribution of the geographically isolated South-West European common lizard (Zootoca vivipara louislantzi) using 34 newly developed polymorphic microsatellite markers. The analyses unravelled the presence of isolation by distance, inbreeding, recent bottlenecks, genetic differentiation, and low levels of migration among most populations, suggesting that Z. vivipara louislantzi is threatened. The results point to discontinuous populations and are in line with physical barriers hindering longitudinal migration south to the central Pyrenean cordillera and latitudinal migration in the central Pyrenees. In contrast, evidence for longitudinal migration exists from the lowlands north to the central Pyrenean cordillera and the Cantabrian Mountains. The locations of the populations south to the central Pyrenean cordillera were identified as the first to be affected by global warming; thus, management actions aimed at avoiding population declines should start in this area.},
  language  = {en}
}
@article{BergholzMayRistowetal.2017,
  author    = {Bergholz, Kolja and May, Felix and Ristow, Michael and Giladi, Itamar and Ziv, Yaron and Jeltsch, Florian},
  title     = {Two Mediterranean annuals feature high within-population trait variability and respond differently to a precipitation gradient},
  series = {Basic and applied ecology : Journal of the Gesellschaft f{\"u}r {\"O}kologie},
  volume    = {25},
  journal   = {Basic and applied ecology : Journal of the Gesellschaft f{\"u}r {\"O}kologie},
  publisher = {Elsevier},
  address   = {Jena},
  issn      = {1439-1791},
  doi       = {10.1016/j.baae.2017.11.001},
  pages     = {48 -- 58},
  year      = {2017},
  abstract  = {Intraspecific trait variability plays an important role in species adaptation to climate change. However, it still remains unclear how plants in semi-arid environments respond to increasing aridity. We investigated the intraspecific trait variability of two common Mediterranean annuals (Geropogon hybridus and Crupina crupinastrum) with similar habitat preferences. They were studied along a steep precipitation gradient in Israel similar to the maximum predicted precipitation changes in the eastern Mediterranean basin (i.e. -30\% until 2100). We expected a shift from competitive ability to stress tolerance with decreasing precipitation and tested this expectation by measuring key functional traits (canopy and seed release height, specific leaf area, N-and P-leaf content, seed mass). Further, we evaluated generative bet-hedging strategies by different seed traits. Both species showed different responses along the precipitation gradient. C. crupinastrum exhibited only decreased plant height toward saridity, while G. hybridus showed strong trends of generative adaptation to aridity. Different seed trait indices suggest increased bet-hedging of G. hybridus in arid environments. However, no clear trends along the precipitation gradient were observed in leaf traits (specific leaf area and leaf N-/P-content) in both species. Moreover, variance decomposition revealed that most of the observed trait variation (>> 50\%) is found within populations. The findings of our study suggest that responses to increased aridity are highly species-specific and local environmental factors may have a stronger effect on intraspecific trait variation than shifts in annual precipitation. We therefore argue that trait-based analyses should focus on precipitation gradients that are comparable to predicted precipitation changes and compare precipitation effects to effects of local environmental factors. (C) 2017 Gesellschaft fur Okologie. Published by Elsevier GmbH. All rights reserved.},
  language  = {en}
}
@article{FerTietjenJeltsch2016,
  author    = {Fer, Istem and Tietjen, Britta and Jeltsch, Florian},
  title     = {High-resolution modelling closes the gap between data and model simulations for Mid-Holocene and present-day biomes of East Africa},
  series = {Palaeogeography, palaeoclimatology, palaeoecology : an international journal for the geo-sciences},
  volume    = {444},
  journal   = {Palaeogeography, palaeoclimatology, palaeoecology : an international journal for the geo-sciences},
  publisher = {Elsevier},
  address   = {Amsterdam},
  issn      = {0031-0182},
  doi       = {10.1016/j.palaeo.2015.12.001},
  pages     = {144 -- 151},
  year      = {2016},
  abstract  = {East Africa hosts a striking diversity of terrestrial ecosystems, which vary both in space and time due to complex regional topography and a dynamic climate. The structure and functioning of these ecosystems under this environmental setting can be studied with dynamic vegetation models (DVMs) in a spatially explicit way. Yet, regional applications of DVMs to East Africa are rare and a comprehensive validation of such applications is missing. Here, we simulated the present-day and mid-Holocene vegetation of East Africa with the DVM, LPJ-GUESS and we conducted an exhaustive comparison of model outputs with maps of potential modern vegetation distribution, and with pollen records of local change through time. Overall, the model was able to reproduce the observed spatial patterns of East African vegetation. To see whether running the model at higher spatial resolutions (10\&\#8242; × 10\&\#8242;) contribute to resolve the vegetation distribution better and have a better comparison scale with the observational data (i.e. pollen data), we run the model with coarser spatial resolution (0.5° × 0.5°) for the present-day as well. Both the area- and point-wise comparison showed that a higher spatial resolution allows to better describe spatial vegetation changes induced by the complex topography of East Africa. Our analysis of the difference between modelled mid-Holocene and modern-day vegetation showed that whether a biome shifts to another is best explained by both the amount of change in precipitation it experiences and the amount of precipitation it received originally. We also confirmed that tropical forest biomes were more sensitive to a decrease in precipitation compared to woodland and savanna biomes and that Holocene vegetation changes in East Africa were driven not only by changes in annual precipitation but also by changes in its seasonality.},
  language  = {en}
}
@article{AyllonRailsbackVincenzietal.2016,
  author    = {Ayllon, Daniel and Railsback, Steven Floyd and Vincenzi, Simone and Groeneveld, Juergen and Almodoevar, Ana and Grimm, Volker},
  title     = {InSTREAM-Gen: Modelling eco-evolutionary dynamics of trout populations under anthropogenic environmental change},
  series = {Ecological modelling : international journal on ecological modelling and engineering and systems ecolog},
  volume    = {326},
  journal   = {Ecological modelling : international journal on ecological modelling and engineering and systems ecolog},
  publisher = {Elsevier},
  address   = {Amsterdam},
  issn      = {0304-3800},
  doi       = {10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2015.07.026},
  pages     = {36 -- 53},
  year      = {2016},
  abstract  = {Current rates of environmental change are exceeding the capacity of many populations to adapt to new conditions and thus avoid demographic collapse and ultimate extinction. In particular, cold-water freshwater fish species are predicted to experience strong selective pressure from climate change and a wide range of interacting anthropogenic stressors in the near future. To implement effective management and conservation measures, it is crucial to quantify the maximum rate of change that cold-water freshwater fish populations can withstand. Here, we present a spatially explicit eco-genetic individual-based model, inSTREAM-Gen, to predict the eco-evolutionary dynamics of stream-dwelling trout under anthropogenic environmental change. The model builds on a well-tested demographic model, which includes submodels of river dynamics, bioenergetics, and adaptive habitat selection, with a new genetic module that allows exploration of genetic and life-history adaptations to new environments. The genetic module models the transmission of two key traits, size at emergence and maturity size threshold. We parameterized the model for a brown trout (Salmo trutta L.) population at the warmest edge of its range to validate it and analyze its sensitivity to parameters under contrasting thermal profiles. To illustrate potential applications of the model, we analyzed the population's demographic and evolutionary dynamics under scenarios of (1) climate change-induced warming, and (2) warming plus flow reduction resulting from climate and land use change, compared to (3) a baseline of no environmental change. The model predicted severe declines in density and biomass under climate warming. These declines were lower than expected at range margins because of evolution towards smaller size at both emergence and maturation compared to the natural evolution under the baseline conditions. Despite stronger evolutionary responses, declining rates were substantially larger under the combined warming and flow reduction scenario, leading to a high probability of population extinction over contemporary time frames. Therefore, adaptive responses could not prevent extinction under high rates of environmental change. Our model demonstrates critical elements of next generation ecological modelling aiming at predictions in a changing world as it accounts for spatial and temporal resource heterogeneity, while merging individual behaviour and bioenergetics with microevolutionary adaptations.},
  language  = {en}
}
@article{GeyerStrixnerKreftetal.2015,
  author    = {Geyer, Juliane and Strixner, Lena and Kreft, Stefan and Jeltsch, Florian and Ibisch, Pierre L.},
  title     = {Adapting conservation to climate change: a case study on feasibility and implementation in Brandenburg, Germany},
  series = {Regional environmental change},
  volume    = {15},
  journal   = {Regional environmental change},
  number    = {1},
  publisher = {Springer},
  address   = {Heidelberg},
  issn      = {1436-3798},
  doi       = {10.1007/s10113-014-0609-9},
  pages     = {139 -- 153},
  year      = {2015},
  abstract  = {Conservation actions need to account for global climate change and adapt to it. The body of the literature on adaptation options is growing rapidly, but their feasibility and current state of implementation are rarely assessed. We discussed the practicability of adaptation options with conservation managers analysing three fields of action: reducing the vulnerability of conservation management, reducing the vulnerability of conservation targets (i.e. biodiversity) and climate change mitigation. For all options, feasibility, current state of implementation and existing obstacles to implementation were analysed, using the Federal State of Brandenburg, Germany, as a case study. Practitioners considered a large number of options useful, most of which have already been implemented at least in part. Those options considered broadly implemented resemble mainly conventional measures of conservation without direct relation to climate change. Managers are facing several obstacles for adapting to climate change, including political reluctance to change, financial and staff shortages in conservation administrations and conflictive EU funding schemes in agriculture. A certain reluctance to act, due to the high degree of uncertainty with regard to climate change scenarios and impacts, is widespread. A lack of knowledge of appropriate methods such as adaptive management often inhibits the implementation of adaptation options in the field of planning and management. Based on the findings for Brandenburg, we generally conclude that it is necessary to focus in particular on options that help to reduce vulnerability of conservation management itself, i.e. those that enhance management effectiveness. For instance, adaptive and proactive risk management can be applied as a no-regrets option, independently from specific climate change scenarios or impacts, strengthening action under uncertainty.},
  language  = {en}
}
@article{CaronDeFrenneChabrerieetal.2015,
  author    = {Caron, Maria Mercedes and De Frenne, P. and Chabrerie, Olivier and Cousins, S. A. O. and De Backer, L. and Decocq, G. and Diekmann, M. and Heinken, Thilo and Kolb, A. and Naaf, T. and Plue, J. and Selvi, F. and Strimbeck, G. R. and Wulf, M. and Verheyen, Kris},
  title     = {Impacts of warming and changes in precipitation frequency on the regeneration of two Acer species},
  series = {Flora : morphology, distribution, functional ecology of plants},
  volume    = {214},
  journal   = {Flora : morphology, distribution, functional ecology of plants},
  publisher = {Elsevier},
  address   = {Jena},
  issn      = {0367-2530},
  doi       = {10.1016/j.flora.2015.05.005},
  pages     = {24 -- 33},
  year      = {2015},
  language  = {en}
}
@article{GroeneveldJohstKawaguchietal.2015,
  author    = {Groeneveld, J{\"u}rgen and Johst, Karin and Kawaguchi, So and Meyer, Bettina and Teschke, Mathias and Grimm, Volker},
  title     = {How biological clocks and changing environmental conditions determine local population growth and species distribution in Antarctic krill (Euphausia superba): a conceptual model},
  series = {Ecological modelling : international journal on ecological modelling and engineering and systems ecolog},
  volume    = {303},
  journal   = {Ecological modelling : international journal on ecological modelling and engineering and systems ecolog},
  publisher = {Elsevier},
  address   = {Amsterdam},
  issn      = {0304-3800},
  doi       = {10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2015.02.009},
  pages     = {78 -- 86},
  year      = {2015},
  abstract  = {The Southern Ocean ecosystem is characterized by extreme seasonal changes in environmental factors such as day length, sea ice extent and food availability. The key species Antarctic krill (Euphausia superba) has evolved metabolic and behavioural seasonal rhythms to cope with these seasonal changes. We investigate the switch between a physiological less active and active period for adult krill, a rhythm which seems to be controlled by internal biological clocks. These biological clocks can be synchronized by environmental triggers such as day length and food availability. They have evolved for particular environmental regimes to synchronize predictable seasonal environmental changes with important life cycle functions of the species. In a changing environment the time when krill is metabolically active and the time of peak food availability may not overlap if krill's seasonal activity is solely determined by photoperiod (day length). This is especially true for the Atlantic sector of the Southern Ocean where the spatio-temporal ice cover dynamics are changing substantially with rising average temperatures. We developed an individual-based model for krill to explore the impact of photoperiod and food availability on the growth and demographics of krill. We simulated dynamics of local krill populations (with no movement of krill assumed) along a south-north gradient for different triggers of metabolic activity and different levels of food availability below the ice. We also observed the fate of larval krill which cannot switch to low metabolism and therefore are likely to overwinter under ice. Krill could only occupy the southern end of the gradient, where algae bloom only lasts for a short time, when alternative food supply under the ice was high and metabolic activity was triggered by photoperiod. The northern distribution was limited by lack of overwintering habitat for krill larvae due to short duration of sea ice cover even for high food content under the ice. The variability of the krill's length-frequency distributions varied for different triggers of metabolic activity, but did not depend on the sea ice extent. Our findings suggest a southward shift of krill populations due to reduction in the spatial sea ice extent, which is consistent with field observations. Overall, our results highlight the importance of the explicit consideration of spatio-temporal sea ice dynamics especially for larval krill together with temporal synchronization through internal clocks, triggered by environmental factors (photoperiod and food) in adult krill for the population modelling of krill. (C) 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.},
  language  = {en}
}
@article{LemkeKolbGraaeetal.2015,
  author    = {Lemke, Isgard H. and Kolb, Annette and Graae, Bente J. and De Frenne, Pieter and Acharya, Kamal P. and Blandino, Cristina and Brunet, Jorg and Chabrerie, Olivier and Cousins, Sara A. O. and Decocq, Guillaume and Heinken, Thilo and Hermy, Martin and Liira, Jaan and Schmucki, Reto and Shevtsova, Anna and Verheyen, Kris and Diekmann, Martin},
  title     = {Patterns of phenotypic trait variation in two temperate forest herbs along a broad climatic gradient},
  series = {Plant ecology : an international journal},
  volume    = {216},
  journal   = {Plant ecology : an international journal},
  number    = {11},
  publisher = {Springer},
  address   = {Dordrecht},
  issn      = {1385-0237},
  doi       = {10.1007/s11258-015-0534-0},
  pages     = {1523 -- 1536},
  year      = {2015},
  abstract  = {Phenotypic trait variation plays a major role in the response of plants to global environmental change, particularly in species with low migration capabilities and recruitment success. However, little is known about the variation of functional traits within populations and about differences in this variation on larger spatial scales. In a first approach, we therefore related trait expression to climate and local environmental conditions, studying two temperate forest herbs, Milium effusum and Stachys sylvatica, along a similar to 1800-2500 km latitudinal gradient. Within each of 9-10 regions in six European countries, we collected data from six populations of each species and recorded several variables in each region (temperature, precipitation) and population (light availability, soil parameters). For each plant, we measured height, leaf area, specific leaf area, seed mass and the number of seeds and examined environmental effects on within-population trait variation as well as on trait means. Most importantly, trait variation differed both between and within populations. Species, however, differed in their response. Intrapopulation variation in Milium was consistently positively affected by higher mean temperatures and precipitation as well as by more fertile local soil conditions, suggesting that more productive conditions may select for larger phenotypic variation. In Stachys, particularly light availability positively influenced trait variation, whereas local soil conditions had no consistent effects. Generally, our study emphasises that intra-population variation may differ considerably across larger scales-due to phenotypic plasticity and/or underlying genetic diversity-possibly affecting species response to global environmental change.},
  language  = {en}
}
@article{DolgenerFreudenbergerSchneeweissetal.2014,
  author    = {Dolgener, Nicola and Freudenberger, L. and Schneeweiss, N. and Ibisch, P. L. and Tiedemann, Ralph},
  title     = {Projecting current and potential future distribution of the Fire-bellied toad Bombina bombina under climate change in north-eastern Germany},
  series = {Regional environmental change},
  volume    = {14},
  journal   = {Regional environmental change},
  number    = {3},
  publisher = {Springer},
  address   = {Heidelberg},
  issn      = {1436-3798},
  doi       = {10.1007/s10113-013-0468-9},
  pages     = {1063 -- 1072},
  year      = {2014},
  abstract  = {Environmental change is likely to have a strong impact on biodiversity, and many species may shift their distribution in response. In this study, we aimed at projecting the availability of suitable habitat for an endangered amphibian species, the Fire-bellied toad Bombina bombina, in Brandenburg (north-eastern Germany). We modelled a potential habitat distribution map based on (1) a database with 10,581 presence records for Bombina from the years 1990 to 2009, (2) current estimates for ecogeographical variables (EGVs) and (3) the future projection of these EGVs according to the statistical regional model, respectively, the soil and water integrated model, applying the maximum entropy approach (Maxent). By comparing current and potential future distributions, we evaluated the projected change in distribution of suitable habitats and identified the environmental variables most associated with habitat suitability that turned out to be climatic variables related to the hydrological cycle. Under the applied scenario, our results indicate increasing habitat suitability in many areas and an extended range of suitable habitats. However, even if the environmental conditions in Brandenburg may change as predicted, it is questionable whether the Fire-bellied toad will truly benefit, as dispersal abilities of amphibian species are limited and strongly influenced by anthropogenic disturbances, that is, intensive agriculture, habitat destruction and fragmentation. Furthermore, agronomic pressure is likely to increase on productive areas with fertile soils and high water retention capacities, indeed those areas suitable for B. bombina. All these changes may affect temporary pond hydrology as well as the reproductive success and breeding phenology of toads.},
  language  = {en}
}