@article{WasofLenoirGalletMoronetal.2013, author = {Wasof, Safaa and Lenoir, Jonathan and Gallet-Moron, Emilie and Jamoneau, Aurelien and Brunet, J{\"o}rg and Cousins, Sara A. O. and De Frenne, Pieter and Diekmann, Martin and Hermy, Martin and Kolb, Annette and Liira, Jaan and Verheyen, Kris and Wulf, Monika and Decocq, Guillaume}, title = {Ecological niche shifts of understorey plants along a latitudinal gradient of temperate forests in north-western Europe}, series = {Global ecology and biogeography : a journal of macroecology}, volume = {22}, journal = {Global ecology and biogeography : a journal of macroecology}, number = {10}, publisher = {Wiley-Blackwell}, address = {Hoboken}, issn = {1466-822X}, doi = {10.1111/geb.12073}, pages = {1130 -- 1140}, year = {2013}, abstract = {Aim In response to environmental changes and to avoid extinction, species may either track suitable environmental conditions or adapt to the modified environment. However, whether and how species adapt to environmental changes remains unclear. By focusing on the realized niche (i.e. the actual space that a species inhabits and the resources it can access as a result of limiting biotic factors present in its habitat), we here examine shifts in the realized-niche width (i.e. ecological amplitude) and position (i.e. ecological optimum) of 26 common and widespread forest understorey plants across their distributional ranges. Location Temperate forests along a ca. 1800-km-long latitudinal gradient from northern France to central Sweden and Estonia. Methods We derived species' realized-niche width from a -diversity metric, which increases if the focal species co-occurs with more species. Based on the concept that species' scores in a detrended correspondence analysis (DCA) represent the locations of their realized-niche positions, we developed a novel approach to run species-specific DCAs allowing the focal species to shift its realized-niche position along the studied latitudinal gradient while the realized-niche positions of other species were held constant. Results None of the 26 species maintained both their realized-niche width and position along the latitudinal gradient. Few species (9 of 26: 35\%) shifted their realized-niche width, but all shifted their realized-niche position. With increasing latitude, most species (22 of 26: 85\%) shifted their realized-niche position for soil nutrients and pH towards nutrient-poorer and more acidic soils. Main conclusions Forest understorey plants shifted their realized niche along the latitudinal gradient, suggesting local adaptation and/or plasticity. This macroecological pattern casts doubt on the idea that the realized niche is stable in space and time, which is a key assumption of species distribution models used to predict the future of biodiversity, hence raising concern about predicted extinction rates.}, language = {en} } @article{SarmentoJeltschThuilleretal.2013, author = {Sarmento, Juliano Sarmento and Jeltsch, Florian and Thuiller, Wilfried and Higgins, Steven and Midgley, Guy F. and Rebelo, Anthony G. and Rouget, Mathieu and Schurr, Frank Martin}, title = {Impacts of past habitat loss and future climate change on the range dynamics of South African Proteaceae}, series = {Diversity \& distributions : a journal of biological invasions and biodiversity}, volume = {19}, journal = {Diversity \& distributions : a journal of biological invasions and biodiversity}, number = {4}, publisher = {Wiley-Blackwell}, address = {Hoboken}, issn = {1366-9516}, doi = {10.1111/ddi.12011}, pages = {363 -- 376}, year = {2013}, abstract = {Aim To assess how habitat loss and climate change interact in affecting the range dynamics of species and to quantify how predicted range dynamics depend on demographic properties of species and the severity of environmental change. Location South African Cape Floristic Region. Methods We use data-driven demographic models to assess the impacts of past habitat loss and future climate change on range size, range filing and abundances of eight species of woody plants (Proteaceae). The species-specific models employ a hybrid approach that simulates population dynamics and long-distance dispersal on top of expected spatio-temporal dynamics of suitable habitat. Results Climate change was mainly predicted to reduce range size and range filling (because of a combination of strong habitat shifts with low migration ability). In contrast, habitat loss mostly decreased mean local abundance. For most species and response measures, the combination of habitat loss and climate change had the most severe effect. Yet, this combined effect was mostly smaller than expected from adding or multiplying effects of the individual environmental drivers. This seems to be because climate change shifts suitable habitats to regions less affected by habitat loss. Interspecific variation in range size responses depended mostly on the severity of environmental change, whereas responses in range filling and local abundance depended mostly on demographic properties of species. While most surviving populations concentrated in areas that remain climatically suitable, refugia for multiple species were overestimated by simply overlying habitat models and ignoring demography. Main conclusions Demographic models of range dynamics can simultaneously predict the response of range size, abundance and range filling to multiple drivers of environmental change. Demographic knowledge is particularly needed to predict abundance responses and to identify areas that can serve as biodiversity refugia under climate change. These findings highlight the need for data-driven, demographic assessments in conservation biogeography.}, language = {en} } @article{DeFrenneRodriguezSanchezCoomesetal.2013, author = {De Frenne, Pieter and Rodriguez-Sanchez, Francisco and Coomes, David Anthony and B{\"a}ten, Lander and Verstr{\"a}ten, Gorik and Vellend, Mark and Bernhardt-R{\"o}mermann, Markus and Brown, Carissa D. and Brunet, J{\"o}rg and Cornelis, Johnny and Decocq, Guillaume M. and Dierschke, Hartmut and Eriksson, Ove and Gilliam, Frank S. and Hedl, Radim and Heinken, Thilo and Hermy, Martin and Hommel, Patrick and Jenkins, Michael A. and Kelly, Daniel L. and Kirby, Keith J. and Mitchell, Fraser J. G. and Naaf, Tobias and Newman, Miles and Peterken, George and Petrik, Petr and Schultz, Jan and Sonnier, Gregory and Van Calster, Hans and Waller, Donald M. and Walther, Gian-Reto and White, Peter S. and Woods, Kerry D. and Wulf, Monika and Graae, Bente Jessen and Verheyen, Kris}, title = {Microclimate moderates plant responses to macroclimate warming}, series = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America}, volume = {110}, journal = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America}, number = {46}, publisher = {National Acad. of Sciences}, address = {Washington}, issn = {0027-8424}, doi = {10.1073/pnas.1311190110}, pages = {18561 -- 18565}, year = {2013}, abstract = {Recent global warming is acting across marine, freshwater, and terrestrial ecosystems to favor species adapted to warmer conditions and/or reduce the abundance of cold-adapted organisms (i.e., "thermophilization" of communities). Lack of community responses to increased temperature, however, has also been reported for several taxa and regions, suggesting that "climatic lags" may be frequent. Here we show that microclimatic effects brought about by forest canopy closure can buffer biotic responses to macroclimate warming, thus explaining an apparent climatic lag. Using data from 1,409 vegetation plots in European and North American temperate forests, each surveyed at least twice over an interval of 12-67 y, we document significant thermophilization of ground-layer plant communities. These changes reflect concurrent declines in species adapted to cooler conditions and increases in species adapted to warmer conditions. However, thermophilization, particularly the increase of warm-adapted species, is attenuated in forests whose canopies have become denser, probably reflecting cooler growing-season ground temperatures via increased shading. As standing stocks of trees have increased in many temperate forests in recent decades, local microclimatic effects may commonly be moderating the impacts of macroclimate warming on forest understories. Conversely, increases in harvesting woody biomass-e.g., for bioenergy-may open forest canopies and accelerate thermophilization of temperate forest biodiversity.}, language = {en} } @article{HuberRiglingBebietal.2013, author = {Huber, Robert and Rigling, Andreas and Bebi, Peter and Brand, Fridolin Simon and Briner, Simon and Buttler, Alexandre and Elkin, Che and Gillet, Francois and Gret-Regamey, Adrienne and Hirschi, Christian and Lischke, Heike and Scholz, Roland Werner and Seidl, Roman and Spiegelberger, Thomas and Walz, Ariane and Zimmermann, Willi and Bugmann, Harald}, title = {Sustainable land use in Mountain Regions under global change synthesis across scales and disciplines}, series = {Ecology and society : a journal of integrative science for resilience and sustainability}, volume = {18}, journal = {Ecology and society : a journal of integrative science for resilience and sustainability}, number = {3}, publisher = {Resilience Alliance}, address = {Wolfville}, issn = {1708-3087}, doi = {10.5751/ES-05499-180336}, pages = {20}, year = {2013}, abstract = {Mountain regions provide essential ecosystem goods and services (EGS) for both mountain dwellers and people living outside these areas. Global change endangers the capacity of mountain ecosystems to provide key services. The Mountland project focused on three case study regions in the Swiss Alps and aimed to propose land-use practices and alternative policy solutions to ensure the provision of key EGS under climate and land-use changes. We summarized and synthesized the results of the project and provide insights into the ecological, socioeconomic, and political processes relevant for analyzing global change impacts on a European mountain region. In Mountland, an integrative approach was applied, combining methods from economics and the political and natural sciences to analyze ecosystem functioning from a holistic human-environment system perspective. In general, surveys, experiments, and model results revealed that climate and socioeconomic changes are likely to increase the vulnerability of the EGS analyzed. We regard the following key characteristics of coupled human-environment systems as central to our case study areas in mountain regions: thresholds, heterogeneity, trade-offs, and feedback. Our results suggest that the institutional framework should be strengthened in a way that better addresses these characteristics, allowing for (1) more integrative approaches, (2) a more network-oriented management and steering of political processes that integrate local stakeholders, and (3) enhanced capacity building to decrease the identified vulnerability as central elements in the policy process. Further, to maintain and support the future provision of EGS in mountain regions, policy making should also focus on project-oriented, cross-sectoral policies and spatial planning as a coordination instrument for land use in general.}, language = {en} } @article{LevermannClarkMarzeionetal.2013, author = {Levermann, Anders and Clark, Peter U. and Marzeion, Ben and Milne, Glenn A. and Pollard, David and Radic, Valentina and Robinson, Alexander}, title = {The multimillennial sea-level commitment of global warming}, series = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America}, volume = {110}, journal = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America}, number = {34}, publisher = {National Acad. of Sciences}, address = {Washington}, issn = {0027-8424}, doi = {10.1073/pnas.1219414110}, pages = {13745 -- 13750}, year = {2013}, abstract = {Global mean sea level has been steadily rising over the last century, is projected to increase by the end of this century, and will continue to rise beyond the year 2100 unless the current global mean temperature trend is reversed. Inertia in the climate and global carbon system, however, causes the global mean temperature to decline slowly even after greenhouse gas emissions have ceased, raising the question of how much sea-level commitment is expected for different levels of global mean temperature increase above preindustrial levels. Although sea-level rise over the last century has been dominated by ocean warming and loss of glaciers, the sensitivity suggested from records of past sea levels indicates important contributions should also be expected from the Greenland and Antarctic Ice Sheets. Uncertainties in the paleo-reconstructions, however, necessitate additional strategies to better constrain the sea-level commitment. Here we combine paleo-evidence with simulations from physical models to estimate the future sea-level commitment on a multimillennial time scale and compute associated regional sea-level patterns. Oceanic thermal expansion and the Antarctic Ice Sheet contribute quasi-linearly, with 0.4 m degrees C-1 and 1.2 m degrees C-1 of warming, respectively. The saturation of the contribution from glaciers is overcompensated by the nonlinear response of the Greenland Ice Sheet. As a consequence we are committed to a sea-level rise of approximately 2.3 m degrees C-1 within the next 2,000 y. Considering the lifetime of anthropogenic greenhouse gases, this imposes the need for fundamental adaptation strategies on multicentennial time scales.}, language = {en} }