@article{PiontekKalkuhlKriegleretal.2019, author = {Piontek, Franziska and Kalkuhl, Matthias and Kriegler, Elmar and Schultes, Anselm and Leimbach, Marian and Edenhofer, Ottmar and Bauer, Nico}, title = {Economic Growth Effects of Alternative Climate Change Impact Channels in Economic Modeling}, series = {Environmental \& resource economics : the official journal of the European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists}, volume = {73}, journal = {Environmental \& resource economics : the official journal of the European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists}, number = {4}, publisher = {Springer}, address = {Dordrecht}, issn = {0924-6460}, doi = {10.1007/s10640-018-00306-7}, pages = {1357 -- 1385}, year = {2019}, abstract = {Despite increasing empirical evidence of strong links between climate and economic growth, there is no established model to describe the dynamics of how different types of climate shocks affect growth patterns. Here we present the first comprehensive, comparative analysis of the long-term dynamics of one-time, temporary climate shocks on production factors, and factor productivity, respectively, in a Ramsey-type growth model. Damages acting directly on production factors allow us to study dynamic effects on factor allocation, savings and economic growth. We find that the persistence of impacts on economic activity is smallest for climate shocks directly impacting output, and successively increases for direct damages on capital, loss of labor and productivity shocks, related to different responses in savings rates and factor-specific growth. Recurring shocks lead to large welfare effects and long-term growth effects, directly linked to the persistence of individual shocks. Endogenous savings and shock anticipation both have adaptive effects but do not eliminate differences between impact channels or significantly lower the dissipation time. Accounting for endogenous growth mechanisms increases the effects. We also find strong effects on income shares, important for distributional implications. This work fosters conceptual understanding of impact dynamics in growth models, opening options for links to empirics.}, language = {en} } @misc{HudsonBotzenPoussinetal.2019, author = {Hudson, Paul and Botzen, W. J. Wouter and Poussin, Jennifer and Aerts, Jeroen C. J. H.}, title = {Impacts of flooding and flood preparedness on subjective well-being}, series = {Journal of Happiness Studies}, volume = {20}, journal = {Journal of Happiness Studies}, number = {2}, publisher = {Springer Science}, address = {Dordrecht}, issn = {1389-4978}, doi = {10.1007/s10902-017-9916-4}, pages = {665 -- 682}, year = {2019}, abstract = {Flood disasters severely impact human subjective well-being (SWB). Nevertheless, few studies have examined the influence of flood events on individual well-being and how such impacts may be limited by flood protection measures. This study estimates the long term impacts on individual subjective well-being of flood experiences, individual subjective flood risk perceptions, and household flood preparedness decisions. These effects are monetised and placed in context through a comparison with impacts of other adverse events on well-being. We collected data from households in flood-prone areas in France. The results indicate that experiencing a flood has a large negative impact on subjective well-being that is incompletely attenuated over time. Moreover, individuals do not need to be directly affected by floods to suffer SWB losses since subjective well-being is lower for those who expect their flood risk to increase or who have seen a neighbour being flooded. Floodplain inhabitants who prepared for flooding by elevating their home have a higher subjective well-being. A monetisation of the aforementioned well-being impacts shows that a flood requires Euro150,000 in immediate compensation to attenuate SWB losses. The decomposition of the monetised impacts of flood experience into tangible losses and intangible effects on SWB shows that intangible effects are about twice as large as the tangible direct monetary flood losses. Investments in flood protection infrastructure may be under funded if the intangible SWB benefits of flood protection are not taken into account.}, language = {en} } @article{LuisHorreoLuisaPelaezBreedveldetal.2019, author = {Luis Horreo, Jose and Luisa Pelaez, Maria and Breedveld, Merel Cathelijne and Suarez, Teresa and Urieta, Maria and Fitze, Patrick S.}, title = {Population structure of the oviparous South-West European common lizard}, series = {European journal of wildlife research}, volume = {65}, journal = {European journal of wildlife research}, number = {1}, publisher = {Springer}, address = {New York}, issn = {1612-4642}, doi = {10.1007/s10344-018-1242-6}, pages = {9}, year = {2019}, abstract = {Gene flow is an important factor determining the evolution of a species, since it directly affects population structure and species' adaptation. Here, we investigated population structure, population history, and migration among populations covering the entire distribution of the geographically isolated South-West European common lizard (Zootoca vivipara louislantzi) using 34 newly developed polymorphic microsatellite markers. The analyses unravelled the presence of isolation by distance, inbreeding, recent bottlenecks, genetic differentiation, and low levels of migration among most populations, suggesting that Z. vivipara louislantzi is threatened. The results point to discontinuous populations and are in line with physical barriers hindering longitudinal migration south to the central Pyrenean cordillera and latitudinal migration in the central Pyrenees. In contrast, evidence for longitudinal migration exists from the lowlands north to the central Pyrenean cordillera and the Cantabrian Mountains. The locations of the populations south to the central Pyrenean cordillera were identified as the first to be affected by global warming; thus, management actions aimed at avoiding population declines should start in this area.}, language = {en} } @article{BuergerPfisterBronstert2019, author = {B{\"u}rger, Gerd and Pfister, A. and Bronstert, Axel}, title = {Temperature-Driven Rise in Extreme Sub-Hourly Rainfall}, series = {Journal of climate}, volume = {32}, journal = {Journal of climate}, number = {22}, publisher = {American Meteorological Soc.}, address = {Boston}, issn = {0894-8755}, doi = {10.1175/JCLI-D-19-0136.1}, pages = {7597 -- 7609}, year = {2019}, abstract = {Estimates of present and future extreme sub-hourly rainfall are derived from a daily spatial followed by a sub-daily temporal downscaling, the latter of which incorporates a novel, and crucial, temperature sensitivity. Specifically, daily global climate fields are spatially downscaled to local temperature T and precipitation P, which are then disaggregated to a temporal resolution of 10 min using a multiplicative random cascade model. The scheme is calibrated and validated with a group of 21 station records of 10-min resolution in Germany. The cascade model is used in the classical (denoted as MC) and in the new T-sensitive (MC+) version, which respects local Clausius-Clapeyron (CC) effects such as CC scaling. Extreme P is positively biased in both MC versions. Observed T sensitivity is absent in MC but well reproduced by MC+. Long-term positive trends in extreme sub-hourly P are generally more pronounced and more significant in MC+ than in MC. In units of 10-min rainfall, observed centennial trends in annual exceedance counts (EC) of P > 5 mm are +29\% and in 3-yr return levels (RL) +27\%. For the RCP4.5-simulated future, higher extremes are projected in both versions MC and MC+: per century, EC increases by 30\% for MC and by 83\% for MC+; the RL rises by 14\% for MC and by 33\% for MC+. Because the projected daily P trends are negligible, the sub-daily signal is mainly driven by local temperature.}, language = {en} } @article{VehKorupvonSpechtetal.2019, author = {Veh, Georg and Korup, Oliver and von Specht, Sebastian and R{\"o}ßner, Sigrid and Walz, Ariane}, title = {Unchanged frequency of moraine-dammed glacial lake outburst floods in the Himalaya}, series = {Nature climate change}, volume = {9}, journal = {Nature climate change}, number = {5}, publisher = {Nature Publ. Group}, address = {London}, issn = {1758-678X}, doi = {10.1038/s41558-019-0437-5}, pages = {379 -- 383}, year = {2019}, abstract = {Shrinking glaciers in the Hindu Kush-Karakoram-Himalaya-Nyainqentanglha (HKKHN) region have formed several thousand moraine-dammed glacial lakes(1-3), some of these having grown rapidly in past decades(3,4). This growth may promote more frequent and potentially destructive glacial lake outburst floods (GLOFs)(5-7). Testing this hypothesis, however, is confounded by incomplete databases of the few reliable, though selective, case studies. Here we present a consistent Himalayan GLOF inventory derived automatically from all available Landsat imagery since the late 1980s. We more than double the known GLOF count and identify the southern Himalayas as a hotspot region, compared to the more rarely affected Hindu Kush-Karakoram ranges. Nevertheless, the average annual frequency of 1.3 GLOFs has no credible posterior trend despite reported increases in glacial lake areas in most of the HKKHN3,8, so that GLOF activity per unit lake area has decreased since the late 1980s. We conclude that learning more about the frequency and magnitude of outburst triggers, rather than focusing solely on rapidly growing glacial lakes, might improve the appraisal of GLOF hazards.}, language = {en} }