@phdthesis{WindirschWoiwode2024,
  author    = {Windirsch-Woiwode, Torben},
  title     = {Permafrost carbon stabilisation by recreating a herbivore-driven ecosystem},
  doi       = {10.25932/publishup-62424},
  url       = {http://nbn-resolving.de/urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-624240},
  school      = {Universit{\"a}t Potsdam},
  pages     = {X, 104, A-57},
  year      = {2024},
  abstract  = {With Arctic ground as a huge and temperature-sensitive carbon reservoir, maintaining low ground temperatures and frozen conditions to prevent further carbon emissions that contrib-ute to global climate warming is a key element in humankind's fight to maintain habitable con-ditions on earth. Former studies showed that during the late Pleistocene, Arctic ground condi-tions were generally colder and more stable as the result of an ecosystem dominated by large herbivorous mammals and vast extents of graminoid vegetation - the mammoth steppe. Characterised by high plant productivity (grassland) and low ground insulation due to animal-caused compression and removal of snow, this ecosystem enabled deep permafrost aggrad-ation. Now, with tundra and shrub vegetation common in the terrestrial Arctic, these effects are not in place anymore. However, it appears to be possible to recreate this ecosystem local-ly by artificially increasing animal numbers, and hence keep Arctic ground cold to reduce or-ganic matter decomposition and carbon release into the atmosphere. By measuring thaw depth, total organic carbon and total nitrogen content, stable carbon iso-tope ratio, radiocarbon age, n-alkane and alcohol characteristics and assessing dominant vegetation types along grazing intensity transects in two contrasting Arctic areas, it was found that recreating conditions locally, similar to the mammoth steppe, seems to be possible. For permafrost-affected soil, it was shown that intensive grazing in direct comparison to non-grazed areas reduces active layer depth and leads to higher TOC contents in the active layer soil. For soil only frozen on top in winter, an increase of TOC with grazing intensity could not be found, most likely because of confounding factors such as vertical water and carbon movement, which is not possible with an impermeable layer in permafrost. In both areas, high animal activity led to a vegetation transformation towards species-poor graminoid-dominated landscapes with less shrubs. Lipid biomarker analysis revealed that, even though the available organic material is different between the study areas, in both permafrost-affected and sea-sonally frozen soils the organic material in sites affected by high animal activity was less de-composed than under less intensive grazing pressure. In conclusion, high animal activity af-fects decomposition processes in Arctic soils and the ground thermal regime, visible from reduced active layer depth in permafrost areas. Therefore, grazing management might be utilised to locally stabilise permafrost and reduce Arctic carbon emissions in the future, but is likely not scalable to the entire permafrost region.},
  language  = {en}
}
@phdthesis{Li2023,
  author    = {Li, Zhen},
  title     = {Formation of Sub-Permafrost Methane Hydrate Reproduced by Numerical Modeling},
  doi       = {10.25932/publishup-60330},
  url       = {http://nbn-resolving.de/urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-603302},
  school      = {Universit{\"a}t Potsdam},
  pages     = {XII, 109},
  year      = {2023},
  abstract  = {Natural gas hydrates are ice-like crystalline compounds containing water cavities that trap natural gas molecules like methane (CH4), which is a potent greenhouse gas with high energy density. The Mallik site at the Mackenzie Delta in the Canadian Arctic contains a large volume of technically recoverable CH4 hydrate beneath the base of the permafrost. Understanding how the sub-permafrost hydrate is distributed can aid in searching for the ideal locations for deploying CH4 production wells to develop the hydrate as a cleaner alternative to crude oil or coal. Globally, atmospheric warming driving permafrost thaw results in sub-permafrost hydrate dissociation, releasing CH4 into the atmosphere to intensify global warming. It is therefore crucial to evaluate the potential risk of hydrate dissociation due to permafrost degradation. To quantitatively predict hydrate distribution and volume in complex sub-permafrost environments, a numerical framework was developed to simulate sub-permafrost hydrate formation by coupling the equilibrium CH4-hydrate formation approach with a fluid flow and transport simulator (TRANSPORTSE). In addition, integrating the equations of state describing ice melting and forming with TRANSPORTSE enabled this framework to simulate the permafrost evolution during the sub-permafrost hydrate formation. A modified sub-permafrost hydrate formation mechanism for the Mallik site is presented in this study. According to this mechanism, the CH4-rich fluids have been vertically transported since the Late Pleistocene from deep overpressurized zones via geologic fault networks to form the observed hydrate deposits in the Kugmallit-Mackenzie Bay Sequences. The established numerical framework was verified by a benchmark of hydrate formation via dissolved methane. Model calibration was performed based on laboratory data measured during a multi-stage hydrate formation experiment undertaken in the LArge scale Reservoir Simulator (LARS). As the temporal and spatial evolution of simulated and observed hydrate saturation matched well, the LARS model was therefore validated. This laboratory-scale model was then upscaled to a field-scale 2D model generated from a seismic transect across the Mallik site. The simulation confirmed the feasibility of the introduced sub-permafrost hydrate formation mechanism by demonstrating consistency with field observations. The 2D model was extended to the first 3D model of the Mallik site by using well-logs and seismic profiles, to investigate the geologic controls on the spatial hydrate distribution. An assessment of this simulation revealed the hydraulic contribution of each geological element, including relevant fault networks and sedimentary sequences. Based on the simulation results, the observed heterogeneous distribution of sub-permafrost hydrate resulted from the combined factors of the source-gas generation rate, subsurface temperature, and the permeability of geologic elements. Analysis of the results revealed that the Mallik permafrost was heated by 0.8-1.3 °C, induced by the global temperature increase of 0.44 °C and accelerated by Arctic amplification from the early 1970s to the mid-2000s. This study presents a numerical framework that can be applied to study the formation of the permafrost-hydrate system from laboratory to field scales, across timescales ranging from hours to millions of years. Overall, these simulations deepen the knowledge about the dominant factors controlling the spatial hydrate distribution in sub-permafrost environments with heterogeneous geologic elements. The framework can support improving the design of hydrate formation experiments and provide valuable contributions to future industrial hydrate exploration and exploitation activities.},
  language  = {en}
}
@phdthesis{MogrovejoArias2021,
  author    = {Mogrovejo Arias, Diana Carolina},
  title     = {Assessment of the frequency and relevance of potentially pathogenic phenotypes in microbial isolates from Arctic environments},
  school      = {Universit{\"a}t Potsdam},
  pages     = {125},
  year      = {2021},
  abstract  = {The Arctic environments constitute rich and dynamic ecosystems, dominated by microorganisms extremely well adapted to survive and function under severe conditions. A range of physiological adaptations allow the microbiota in these habitats to withstand low temperatures, low water and nutrient availability, high levels of UV radiation, etc. In addition, other adaptations of clear competitive nature are directed at not only surviving but thriving in these environments, by disrupting the metabolism of neighboring cells and affecting intermicrobial communication. Since Arctic microbes are bioindicators which amplify climate alterations in the environment, the Arctic region presents the opportunity to study local microbiota and carry out research about interesting, potentially virulent phenotypes that could be dispersed into other habitats around the globe as a consequence of accelerating climate change. In this context, exploration of Arctic habitats as well as descriptions of the microbes inhabiting them are abundant but microbial competitive strategies commonly associated with virulence and pathogens are rarely reported. In this project, environmental samples from the Arctic region were collected and microorganisms (bacteria and fungi) were isolated. The clinical relevance of these microorganisms was assessed by observing the following virulence markers: ability to grow at a range of temperatures, expression of antimicrobial resistance and production of hemolysins. The aim of this project is to determine the frequency and relevance of these characteristics in an effort to understand microbial adaptations in habitats threatened by climate change. The isolates obtained and described here were able to grow at a range of temperatures, in some cases more than 30 °C higher than their original isolation temperature. A considerable number of them consistently expressed compounds capable of lysing sheep and bovine erythrocytes on blood agar at different incubation temperatures. Ethanolic extracts of these bacteria were able to cause rapid and complete lysis of erythrocyte suspensions and might even be hemolytic when assayed on human blood. In silico analyses showed a variety of resistance elements, some of them novel, against natural and synthetic antimicrobial compounds. In vitro experiments against a number of antimicrobial compounds showed resistance phenotypes belonging to wild-type populations and some non-wild type which clearly denote human influence in the acquisition of antimicrobial resistance. The results of this project demonstrate the presence of virulence-associated factors expressed by microorganisms of natural, non-clinical environments. This study contains some of the first reports, to the best of our knowledge, of hemolytic microbes isolated from the Arctic region. In addition, it provides additional information about the presence and expression of intrinsic and acquired antimicrobial resistance in environmental isolates, contributing to the understanding of the evolution of relevant pathogenic species and opportunistic pathogens. Finally, this study highlights some of the potential risks associated with changes in the polar regions (habitat melting and destruction, ecosystem transition and re-colonization) as important indirect consequences of global warming and altered climatic conditions around the planet.},
  language  = {en}
}
@phdthesis{Hesse2018,
  author    = {Hesse, Cornelia},
  title     = {Integrated water quality modelling in meso- to large-scale catchments of the Elbe river basin under climate and land use change},
  doi       = {10.25932/publishup-42295},
  url       = {http://nbn-resolving.de/urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-422957},
  school      = {Universit{\"a}t Potsdam},
  pages     = {ix, 217},
  year      = {2018},
  abstract  = {In einer sich {\"a}ndernden Umwelt sind Fließgew{\"a}sser{\"o}kosysteme vielf{\"a}ltigen direkten und indirekten anthropogenen Belastungen ausgesetzt, die die Gew{\"a}sser sowohl in ihrer Menge als auch in ihrer G{\"u}te beeintr{\"a}chtigen k{\"o}nnen. Ein {\"u}berm{\"a}ßiger Eintrag von N{\"a}hrstoffen verursacht etwa Massenentwicklungen von Algen und Sauerstoffdefizite in den Gew{\"a}ssern, was zum Verfehlen der Ziele der Wasserrahmenrichtlinie (WRRL) f{\"u}hren kann. In vielen europ{\"a}ischen Einzugsgebieten und auch dem der Elbe sind solche Probleme zu beobachten. W{\"a}hrend der letzten Jahrzehnte entstanden diverse computergest{\"u}tzte Modelle, die zum Schutz und Management von Wasserressourcen genutzt werden k{\"o}nnen. Sie helfen beim Verstehen der N{\"a}hrstoffprozesse und Belastungspfade in Einzugsgebieten, bei der Absch{\"a}tzung m{\"o}glicher Folgen von Klima- und Landnutzungs{\"a}nderungen f{\"u}r die Wasserk{\"o}rper, sowie bei der Entwicklung eventueller Kompensationsmaßnahmen. Aufgrund der Vielzahl an sich gegenseitig beeinflussenden Prozessen ist die Modellierung der Wasserqualit{\"a}t komplexer und aufw{\"a}ndiger als eine reine hydrologische Modellierung. {\"O}kohydrologische Modelle zur Simulation der Gew{\"a}sserg{\"u}te, einschließlich des Modells SWIM (Soil and Water Integrated Model), bed{\"u}rfen auch h{\"a}ufig noch einer Weiterentwicklung und Verbesserung der Prozessbeschreibungen. Aus diesen {\"U}berlegungen entstand die vorliegende Dissertation, die sich zwei Hauptanliegen widmet: 1) einer Weiterentwicklung des N{\"a}hrstoffmoduls des {\"o}kohydrologischen Modells SWIM f{\"u}r Stickstoff- und Phosphorprozesse, und 2) der Anwendung des Modells SWIM im Elbegebiet zur Unterst{\"u}tzung eines anpassungsf{\"a}higen Wassermanagements im Hinblick auf m{\"o}gliche zuk{\"u}nftige {\"A}nderungen der Umweltbedingungen. Die kumulative Dissertation basiert auf f{\"u}nf wissenschaftlichen Artikeln, die in internationalen Zeitschriften ver{\"o}ffentlicht wurden. Im Zuge der Arbeit wurden verschiedene Modellanpassungen in SWIM vorgenommen, wie etwa ein einfacher Ansatz zur Verbesserung der Simulation der Wasser- und N{\"a}hrstoffverh{\"a}ltnisse in Feuchtgebieten, ein um Ammonium erweiterter Stickstoffkreislauf im Boden, sowie ein Flussprozessmodul, das Umwandlungsprozesse, Sauerstoffverh{\"a}ltnisse und Algenwachstum im Fließgew{\"a}sser simuliert, haupts{\"a}chlich angetrieben von Temperatur und Licht. Auch wenn dieser neue Modellansatz ein sehr komplexes Modell mit einer Vielzahl an neuen Kalibrierungsparametern und steigender Unsicherheit erzeugte, konnten gute Ergebnisse in den Teileinzugsgebieten und dem gesamten Gebiet der Elbe erzielt werden, so dass das Modell zur Absch{\"a}tzung m{\"o}glicher Folgen von Klimavariabilit{\"a}ten und ver{\"a}nderten anthropogenen Einfl{\"u}ssen f{\"u}r die Gew{\"a}sserg{\"u}te genutzt werden konnte. Das neue Fließgew{\"a}ssermodul ist ein wichtiger Beitrag zur Verbesserung der N{\"a}hrstoffmodellierung in SWIM, vor allem f{\"u}r Stoffe, die haupts{\"a}chlich aus Punktquellen in die Gew{\"a}sser gelangen (wie z.B. Phosphat). Der neue Modellansatz verbessert zudem die Anwendbarkeit von SWIM f{\"u}r Fragestellungen im Zusammenhang mit der WRRL, bei der biologische Qualit{\"a}tskomponenten (wie etwa Phytoplankton) eine zentrale Rolle spielen. Die dargestellten Ergebnisse der Wirkungsstudien k{\"o}nnen bei Entscheidungstr{\"a}gern und anderen Akteuren das Verst{\"a}ndnis f{\"u}r zuk{\"u}nftige Herausforderungen im Gew{\"a}ssermanagement erh{\"o}hen und dazu beitragen, ein angepasstes Management f{\"u}r das Elbeeinzugsgebiet zu entwickeln.},
  language  = {en}
}
@phdthesis{Gudipudi2017,
  author    = {Gudipudi, Venkata Ramana},
  title     = {Cities and global sustainability},
  url       = {http://nbn-resolving.de/urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-407113},
  school      = {Universit{\"a}t Potsdam},
  pages     = {xxii, 101},
  year      = {2017},
  abstract  = {In the wake of 21st century, humanity witnessed a phenomenal raise of urban agglomerations as powerhouses for innovation and socioeconomic growth. Driving much of national (and in few instances even global) economy, such a gargantuan raise of cities is also accompanied by subsequent increase in energy, resource consumption and waste generation. Much of anthropogenic transformation of Earth's environment in terms of environmental pollution at local level to planetary scale in the form of climate change is currently taking place in cities. Projected to be crucibles for entire humanity by the end of this century, the ultimate fate of humanity predominantly lies in the hands of technological innovation, urbanites' attitudes towards energy/resource consumption and development pathways undertaken by current and future cities. Considering the unparalleled energy, resource consumption and emissions currently attributed to global cities, this thesis addresses these issues from an efficiency point of view. More specifically, this thesis addresses the influence of population size, density, economic geography and technology in improving urban greenhouse gas (GHG) emission efficiency and identifies the factors leading to improved eco-efficiency in cities. In order to investigate the in uence of these factors in improving emission and resource efficiency in cities, a multitude of freely available datasets were coupled with some novel methodologies and analytical approaches in this thesis. Merging the well-established Kaya Identity to the recently developed urban scaling laws, an Urban Kaya Relation is developed to identify whether large cities are more emission efficient and the intrinsic factors leading to such (in)efficiency. Applying Urban Kaya Relation to a global dataset of 61 cities in 12 countries, this thesis identifed that large cities in developed regions of the world will bring emission efficiency gains because of the better technologies implemented in these cities to produce and utilize energy consumption while the opposite is the case for cities in developing regions. Large cities in developing countries are less efficient mainly because of their affluence and lack of efficient technologies. Apart from the in uence of population size on emission efficiency, this thesis identified the crucial role played by population density in improving building and on-road transport sector related emission efficiency in cities. This is achieved by applying the City Clustering Algorithm (CCA) on two different gridded land use datasets and a standard emission inventory to attribute these sectoral emissions to all inhabited settlements in the USA. Results show that doubling the population density would entail a reduction in the total CO2 emissions in buildings and on-road sectors typically by at least 42 \%. Irrespective of their population size and density, cities are often blamed for their intensive resource consumption that threatens not only local but also global sustainability. This thesis merged the concept of urban metabolism with benchmarking and identified cities which are eco-efficient. These cities enable better socioeconomic conditions while being less burden to the environment. Three environmental burden indicators (annual average NO2 concentration, per capita waste generation and water consumption) and two socioeconomic indicators (GDP per capita and employment ratio) for 88 most populous European cities are considered in this study. Using two different non-parametric ranking methods namely regression residual ranking and Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA), eco-efficient cities and their determining factors are identified. This in-depth analysis revealed that mature cities with well-established economic structures such as Munich, Stockholm and Oslo are eco-efficient. Further, correlations between objective eco-efficiency ranking with each of the indicator rankings and the ranking of urbanites' subjective perception about quality of life are analyzed. This analysis revealed that urbanites' perception about quality of life is not merely confined to the socioeconomic well-being but rather to their combination with lower environmental burden. In summary, the findings of this dissertation has three general conclusions for improving emission and ecological efficiency in cities. Firstly, large cities in emerging nations face a huge challenge with respect to improving their emission efficiency. The task in front of these cities is threefold: (1) deploying efficient technologies for the generation of electricity and improvement of public transportation to unlock their leap frogging potential, (2) addressing the issue of energy poverty and (3) ensuring that these cities do not develop similar energy consumption patterns with infrastructure lock-in behavior similar to those of cities in developed regions. Secondly, the on-going urban sprawl as a global phenomenon will decrease the emission efficiency within the building and transportation sector. Therefore, local policy makers should identify adequate fiscal and land use policies to curb urban sprawl. Lastly, since mature cities with well-established economic structures are more eco-efficient and urbanites' perception re ects its combination with decreasing environmental burden; there is a need to adopt and implement strategies which enable socioeconomic growth in cities whilst decreasing their environment burden.},
  language  = {en}
}
@phdthesis{Smith2018,
  author    = {Smith, Taylor},
  title     = {Decadal changes in the snow regime of High Mountain Asia, 1987-2016},
  url       = {http://nbn-resolving.de/urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-407120},
  school      = {Universit{\"a}t Potsdam},
  pages     = {xiii, 142},
  year      = {2018},
  abstract  = {More than a billion people rely on water from rivers sourced in High Mountain Asia (HMA), a significant portion of which is derived from snow and glacier melt. Rural communities are heavily dependent on the consistency of runoff, and are highly vulnerable to shifts in their local environment brought on by climate change. Despite this dependence, the impacts of climate change in HMA remain poorly constrained due to poor process understanding, complex terrain, and insufficiently dense in-situ measurements. HMA's glaciers contain more frozen water than any region outside of the poles. Their extensive retreat is a highly visible and much studied marker of regional and global climate change. However, in many catchments, snow and snowmelt represent a much larger fraction of the yearly water budget than glacial meltwaters. Despite their importance, climate-related changes in HMA's snow resources have not been well studied. Changes in the volume and distribution of snowpack have complex and extensive impacts on both local and global climates. Eurasian snow cover has been shown to impact the strength and direction of the Indian Summer Monsoon -- which is responsible for much of the precipitation over the Indian Subcontinent -- by modulating earth-surface heating. Shifts in the timing of snowmelt have been shown to limit the productivity of major rangelands, reduce streamflow, modify sediment transport, and impact the spread of vector-borne diseases. However, a large-scale regional study of climate impacts on snow resources had yet to be undertaken. Passive Microwave (PM) remote sensing is a well-established empirical method of studying snow resources over large areas. Since 1987, there have been consistent daily global PM measurements which can be used to derive an estimate of snow depth, and hence snow-water equivalent (SWE) -- the amount of water stored in snowpack. The SWE estimation algorithms were originally developed for flat and even terrain -- such as the Russian and Canadian Arctic -- and have rarely been used in complex terrain such as HMA. This dissertation first examines factors present in HMA that could impact the reliability of SWE estimates. Forest cover, absolute snow depth, long-term average wind speeds, and hillslope angle were found to be the strongest controls on SWE measurement reliability. While forest density and snow depth are factors accounted for in modern SWE retrieval algorithms, wind speed and hillslope angle are not. Despite uncertainty in absolute SWE measurements and differences in the magnitude of SWE retrievals between sensors, single-instrument SWE time series were found to be internally consistent and suitable for trend analysis. Building on this finding, this dissertation tracks changes in SWE across HMA using a statistical decomposition technique. An aggregate decrease in SWE was found (10.6 mm/yr), despite large spatial and seasonal heterogeneities. Winter SWE increased in almost half of HMA, despite general negative trends throughout the rest of the year. The elevation distribution of these negative trends indicates that while changes in SWE have likely impacted glaciers in the region, climate change impacts on these two pieces of the cryosphere are somewhat distinct. Following the discussion of relative changes in SWE, this dissertation explores changes in the timing of the snowmelt season in HMA using a newly developed algorithm. The algorithm is shown to accurately track the onset and end of the snowmelt season (70\% within 5 days of a control dataset, 89\% within 10). Using a 29-year time series, changes in the onset, end, and duration of snowmelt are examined. While nearly the entirety of HMA has experienced an earlier end to the snowmelt season, large regions of HMA have seen a later start to the snowmelt season. Snowmelt periods have also decreased in almost all of HMA, indicating that the snowmelt season is generally shortening and ending earlier across HMA. By examining shifts in both the spatio-temporal distribution of SWE and the timing of the snowmelt season across HMA, we provide a detailed accounting of changes in HMA's snow resources. The overall trend in HMA is towards less SWE storage and a shorter snowmelt season. However, long-term and regional trends conceal distinct seasonal, temporal, and spatial heterogeneity, indicating that changes in snow resources are strongly controlled by local climate and topography, and that inter-annual variability plays a significant role in HMA's snow regime.},
  language  = {en}
}
@phdthesis{Olonscheck2016,
  author    = {Olonscheck, Mady},
  title     = {Climate change impacts on electricity and residential energy demand},
  url       = {http://nbn-resolving.de/urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-98378},
  school      = {Universit{\"a}t Potsdam},
  pages     = {XXIV, 127},
  year      = {2016},
  abstract  = {The energy sector is both affected by climate change and a key sector for climate protection measures. Energy security is the backbone of our modern society and guarantees the functioning of most critical infrastructure. Thus, decision makers and energy suppliers of different countries should be familiar with the factors that increase or decrease the susceptibility of their electricity sector to climate change. Susceptibility means socioeconomic and structural characteristics of the electricity sector that affect the demand for and supply of electricity under climate change. Moreover, the relevant stakeholders are supposed to know whether the given national energy and climate targets are feasible and what needs to be done in order to meet these targets. In this regard, a focus should be on the residential building sector as it is one of the largest energy consumers and therefore emitters of anthropogenic CO 2 worldwide. This dissertation addresses the first aspect, namely the susceptibility of the electricity sector, by developing a ranked index which allows for quantitative comparison of the electricity sector susceptibility of 21 European countries based on 14 influencing factors. Such a ranking has not been completed to date. We applied a sensitivity analysis to test the relative effect of each influencing factor on the susceptibility index ranking. We also discuss reasons for the ranking position and thus the susceptibility of selected countries. The second objective, namely the impact of climate change on the energy demand of buildings, is tackled by means of a new model with which the heating and cooling energy demand of residential buildings can be estimated. We exemplarily applied the model to Germany and the Netherlands. It considers projections of future changes in population, climate and the insulation standards of buildings, whereas most of the existing studies only take into account fewer than three different factors that influence the future energy demand of buildings. Furthermore, we developed a comprehensive retrofitting algorithm with which the total residential building stock can be modeled for the first time for each year in the past and future. The study confirms that there is no correlation between the geographical location of a country and its position in the electricity sector susceptibility ranking. Moreover, we found no pronounced pattern of susceptibility influencing factors between countries that ranked higher or lower in the index. We illustrate that Luxembourg, Greece, Slovakia and Italy are the countries with the highest electricity sector susceptibility. The electricity sectors of Norway, the Czech Republic, Portugal and Denmark were found to be least susceptible to climate change. Knowledge about the most important factors for the poor and good ranking positions of these countries is crucial for finding adequate adaptation measures to reduce the susceptibility of the electricity sector. Therefore, these factors are described within this study. We show that the heating energy demand of residential buildings will strongly decrease in both Germany and the Netherlands in the future. The analysis for the Netherlands focused on the regional level and a finer temporal resolution which revealed strong variations in the future heating energy demand changes by province and by month. In the German study, we additionally investigated the future cooling energy demand and could demonstrate that it will only slightly increase up to the middle of this century. Thus, increases in the cooling energy demand are not expected to offset reductions in heating energy demand. The main factor for substantial heating energy demand reductions is the retrofitting of buildings. We are the first to show that the given German and Dutch energy and climate targets in the building sector can only be met if the annual retrofitting rates are substantially increased. The current rate of only about 1 \% of the total building stock per year is insufficient for reaching a nearly zero-energy demand of all residential buildings by the middle of this century. To reach this target, it would need to be at least tripled. To sum up, this thesis emphasizes that country-specific characteristics are decisive for the electricity sector susceptibility of European countries. It also shows for different scenarios how much energy is needed in the future to heat and cool residential buildings. With this information, existing climate mitigation and adaptation measures can be justified or new actions encouraged.},
  language  = {en}
}
@phdthesis{Aich2015,
  author    = {Aich, Valentin},
  title     = {Floods in the Niger River Basin in the face of global change},
  url       = {http://nbn-resolving.de/urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-91577},
  school      = {Universit{\"a}t Potsdam},
  pages     = {xxi, 275},
  year      = {2015},
  abstract  = {In the last decade, the number and dimensions of catastrophic flooding events in the Niger River Basin (NRB) have markedly increased. Despite the devastating impact of the floods on the population and the mainly agriculturally based economy of the riverine nations, awareness of the hazards in policy and science is still low. The urgency of this topic and the existing research deficits are the motivation for the present dissertation. The thesis is an initial detailed assessment of the increasing flood risk in the NRB. The research strategy is based on four questions regarding (1) features of the change in flood risk, (2) reasons for the change in the flood regime, (3) expected changes of the flood regime given climate and land use changes, and (4) recommendations from previous analysis for reducing the flood risk in the NRB. The question examining the features of change in the flood regime is answered by means of statistical analysis. Trend, correlation, changepoint, and variance analyses show that, in addition to the factors exposure and vulnerability, the hazard itself has also increased significantly in the NRB, in accordance with the decadal climate pattern of West Africa. The northern arid and semi-arid parts of the NRB are those most affected by the changes. As potential reasons for the increase in flood magnitudes, climate and land use changes are attributed by means of a hypothesis-testing framework. Two different approaches, based on either data analysis or simulation, lead to similar results, showing that the influence of climatic changes is generally larger compared to that of land use changes. Only in the dry areas of the NRB is the influence of land use changes comparable to that of climatic alterations. Future changes of the flood regime are evaluated using modelling results. First ensembles of statistically and dynamically downscaled climate models based on different emission scenarios are analyzed. The models agree with a distinct increase in temperature. The precipitation signal, however, is not coherent. The climate scenarios are used to drive an eco-hydrological model. The influence of climatic changes on the flood regime is uncertain due to the unclear precipitation signal. Still, in general, higher flood peaks are expected. In a next step, effects of land use changes are integrated into the model. Different scenarios show that regreening might help to reduce flood peaks. In contrast, an expansion of agriculture might enhance the flood peaks in the NRB. Similarly to the analysis of observed changes in the flood regime, the impacts of climate- and land use changes for the future scenarios are also most severe in the dry areas of the NRB. In order to answer the final research question, the results of the above analysis are integrated into a range of recommendations for science and policy on how to reduce flood risk in the NRB. The main recommendations include a stronger consideration of the enormous natural climate variability in the NRB and a focus on so called "no-regret" adaptation strategies which account for high uncertainty, as well as a stronger consideration of regional differences. Regarding the prevention and mitigation of catastrophic flooding, the most vulnerable and sensitive areas in the basin, the arid and semi-arid Sahelian and Sudano-Sahelian regions, should be prioritized. Eventually, an active, science-based and science-guided flood policy is recommended. The enormous population growth in the NRB in connection with the expected deterioration of environmental and climatic conditions is likely to enhance the region´s vulnerability to flooding. A smart and sustainable flood policy can help mitigate these negative impacts of flooding on the development of riverine societies in West Africa.},
  language  = {en}
}
@phdthesis{Bischoff2013,
  author    = {Bischoff, Juliane},
  title     = {Microbial communities and their response to Pleistocene and Holocene climate variabilities in the Russian Arctic},
  url       = {http://nbn-resolving.de/urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus-68895},
  school      = {Universit{\"a}t Potsdam},
  year      = {2013},
  abstract  = {The Arctic is considered as a focal region in the ongoing climate change debate. The currently observed and predicted climate warming is particularly pronounced in the high northern latitudes. Rising temperatures in the Arctic cause progressive deepening and duration of permafrost thawing during the arctic summer, creating an 'active layer' with high bioavailability of nutrients and labile carbon for microbial consumption. The microbial mineralization of permafrost carbon creates large amounts of greenhouse gases, including carbon dioxide and methane, which can be released to the atmosphere, creating a positive feedback to global warming. However, to date, the microbial communities that drive the overall carbon cycle and specifically methane production in the Arctic are poorly constrained. To assess how these microbial communities will respond to the predicted climate changes, such as an increase in atmospheric and soil temperatures causing increased bioavailability of organic carbon, it is necessary to investigate the current status of this environment, but also how these microbial communities reacted to climate changes in the past. This PhD thesis investigated three records from two different study sites in the Russian Arctic, including permafrost, lake shore and lake deposits from Siberia and Chukotka. A combined stratigraphic approach of microbial and molecular organic geochemical techniques were used to identify and quantify characteristic microbial gene and lipid biomarkers. Based on this data it was possible to characterize and identify the climate response of microbial communities involved in past carbon cycling during the Middle Pleistocene and the Late Pleistocene to Holocene. It is shown that previous warmer periods were associated with an expansion of bacterial and archaeal communities throughout the Russian Arctic, similar to present day conditions. Different from this situation, past glacial and stadial periods experienced a substantial decrease in the abundance of Bacteria and Archaea. This trend can also be confirmed for the community of methanogenic archaea that were highly abundant and diverse during warm and particularly wet conditions. For the terrestrial permafrost, a direct effect of the temperature on the microbial communities is likely. In contrast, it is suggested that the temperature rise in scope of the glacial-interglacial climate variations led to an increase of the primary production in the Arctic lake setting, as can be seen in the corresponding biogenic silica distribution. The availability of this algae-derived carbon is suggested to be a driver for the observed pattern in the microbial abundance. This work demonstrates the effect of climate changes on the community composition of methanogenic archae. Methanosarcina-related species were abundant throughout the Russian Arctic and were able to adapt to changing environmental conditions. In contrast, members of Methanocellales and Methanomicrobiales were not able to adapt to past climate changes. This PhD thesis provides first evidence that past climatic warming led to an increased abundance of microbial communities in the Arctic, closely linked to the cycling of carbon and methane production. With the predicted climate warming, it may, therefore, be anticipated that extensive amounts of microbial communities will develop. Increasing temperatures in the Arctic will affect the temperature sensitive parts of the current microbiological communities, possibly leading to a suppression of cold adapted species and the prevalence of methanogenic archaea that tolerate or adapt to increasing temperatures. These changes in the composition of methanogenic archaea will likely increase the methane production potential of high latitude terrestrial regions, changing the Arctic from a carbon sink to a source.},
  language  = {en}
}
@phdthesis{Holsten2013,
  author    = {Holsten, Anne},
  title     = {Climate change vulnerability assessments in the regional context},
  url       = {http://nbn-resolving.de/urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus-66836},
  school      = {Universit{\"a}t Potsdam},
  year      = {2013},
  abstract  = {Adapting sectors to new conditions under climate change requires an understanding of regional vulnerabilities. Conceptually, vulnerability is defined as a function of sensitivity and exposure, which determine climate impacts, and adaptive capacity of a system. Vulnerability assessments for quantifying these components have become a key tool within the climate change field. However, there is a disagreement on how to make the concept operational in studies from a scientific perspective. This conflict leads to many still unsolved challenges, especially regarding the quantification and aggregation of the components and their suitable level of complexity. This thesis therefore aims at advancing the scientific foundation of such studies by translating the concept of vulnerability into a systematic assessment structure. This includes all components and implies that for each considered impact (e.g. flash floods) a clear sensitive entity is defined (e.g. settlements) and related to a direction of change for a specific climatic stimulus (e.g. increasing impact due to increasing days with heavy precipitation). Regarding the challenging aggregation procedure, two alternative methods allowing a cross-sectoral overview are introduced and their advantages and disadvantages discussed. This assessment structure is subsequently exemplified for municipalities of the German state North Rhine-Westphalia via an indicator-based deductive approach using information from literature. It can be transferred also to other regions. As for many relevant sectors, suitable indicators to express the vulnerability components are lacking, new quantification methods are developed and applied in this thesis, for example for the forestry and health sector. A lack of empirical data on relevant thresholds is evident, for example which climatic changes would cause significant impacts. Consequently, the multi-sectoral study could only provide relative measures for each municipality, in relation to the region. To fill this gap, an exemplary sectoral study was carried out on windthrow impacts in forests to provide an absolute quantification of the present and future impact. This is achieved by formulating an empirical relation between the forest characteristics and damage based on data from a past storm event. The resulting measure indicating the sensitivity is then combined with wind conditions. Multi-sectoral vulnerability assessments require considerable resources, which often hinders the implementation. Thus, in a next step, the potential for reducing the complexity is explored. To predict forest fire occurrence, numerous meteorological indices are available, spanning over a range of complexity. Comparing their performance, the single variable relative humidity outperforms complex indicators for most German states in explaining the monthly fire pattern. This is the case albeit it is itself an input factor in most indices. Thus, this meteorological factor alone is well suited to evaluate forest fire danger in many Germany regions and allows a resource-efficient assessment. Similarly, the complexity of methods is assessed regarding the application of the ecohydrological model SWIM to the German region of Brandenburg. The inter-annual soil moisture levels simulated by this model can only poorly be represented by simpler statistical approach using the same input data. However, on a decadal time horizon, the statistical approach shows a good performance and a strong dominance of the soil characteristic field capacity. This points to a possibility to reduce the input factors for predicting long-term averages, but the results are restricted by a lack of empirical data on soil water for validation. The presented assessments of vulnerability and its components have shown that they are still a challenging scientific undertaking. Following the applied terminology, many problems arise when implementing it for regional studies. Advances in addressing shortcomings of previous studies have been made by constructing a new systematic structure for characterizing and aggregating vulnerability components. For this, multiple approaches were presented, but they have specific advantages and disadvantages, which should also be carefully considered in future studies. There is a potential to simplify some methods, but more systematic assessments on this are needed. Overall, this thesis strengthened the use of vulnerability assessments as a tool to support adaptation by enhancing their scientific basis.},
  language  = {en}
}