@article{HuberRiglingBebietal.2013,
  author    = {Huber, Robert and Rigling, Andreas and Bebi, Peter and Brand, Fridolin Simon and Briner, Simon and Buttler, Alexandre and Elkin, Che and Gillet, Francois and Gret-Regamey, Adrienne and Hirschi, Christian and Lischke, Heike and Scholz, Roland Werner and Seidl, Roman and Spiegelberger, Thomas and Walz, Ariane and Zimmermann, Willi and Bugmann, Harald},
  title     = {Sustainable land use in Mountain Regions under global change synthesis across scales and disciplines},
  series = {Ecology and society : a journal of integrative science for resilience and sustainability},
  volume    = {18},
  journal   = {Ecology and society : a journal of integrative science for resilience and sustainability},
  number    = {3},
  publisher = {Resilience Alliance},
  address   = {Wolfville},
  issn      = {1708-3087},
  doi       = {10.5751/ES-05499-180336},
  pages     = {20},
  year      = {2013},
  abstract  = {Mountain regions provide essential ecosystem goods and services (EGS) for both mountain dwellers and people living outside these areas. Global change endangers the capacity of mountain ecosystems to provide key services. The Mountland project focused on three case study regions in the Swiss Alps and aimed to propose land-use practices and alternative policy solutions to ensure the provision of key EGS under climate and land-use changes. We summarized and synthesized the results of the project and provide insights into the ecological, socioeconomic, and political processes relevant for analyzing global change impacts on a European mountain region. In Mountland, an integrative approach was applied, combining methods from economics and the political and natural sciences to analyze ecosystem functioning from a holistic human-environment system perspective. In general, surveys, experiments, and model results revealed that climate and socioeconomic changes are likely to increase the vulnerability of the EGS analyzed. We regard the following key characteristics of coupled human-environment systems as central to our case study areas in mountain regions: thresholds, heterogeneity, trade-offs, and feedback. Our results suggest that the institutional framework should be strengthened in a way that better addresses these characteristics, allowing for (1) more integrative approaches, (2) a more network-oriented management and steering of political processes that integrate local stakeholders, and (3) enhanced capacity building to decrease the identified vulnerability as central elements in the policy process. Further, to maintain and support the future provision of EGS in mountain regions, policy making should also focus on project-oriented, cross-sectoral policies and spatial planning as a coordination instrument for land use in general.},
  language  = {en}
}
@article{SarmentoJeltschThuilleretal.2013,
  author    = {Sarmento, Juliano Sarmento and Jeltsch, Florian and Thuiller, Wilfried and Higgins, Steven and Midgley, Guy F. and Rebelo, Anthony G. and Rouget, Mathieu and Schurr, Frank Martin},
  title     = {Impacts of past habitat loss and future climate change on the range dynamics of South African Proteaceae},
  series = {Diversity \& distributions : a journal of biological invasions and biodiversity},
  volume    = {19},
  journal   = {Diversity \& distributions : a journal of biological invasions and biodiversity},
  number    = {4},
  publisher = {Wiley-Blackwell},
  address   = {Hoboken},
  issn      = {1366-9516},
  doi       = {10.1111/ddi.12011},
  pages     = {363 -- 376},
  year      = {2013},
  abstract  = {Aim To assess how habitat loss and climate change interact in affecting the range dynamics of species and to quantify how predicted range dynamics depend on demographic properties of species and the severity of environmental change. Location South African Cape Floristic Region. Methods We use data-driven demographic models to assess the impacts of past habitat loss and future climate change on range size, range filing and abundances of eight species of woody plants (Proteaceae). The species-specific models employ a hybrid approach that simulates population dynamics and long-distance dispersal on top of expected spatio-temporal dynamics of suitable habitat. Results Climate change was mainly predicted to reduce range size and range filling (because of a combination of strong habitat shifts with low migration ability). In contrast, habitat loss mostly decreased mean local abundance. For most species and response measures, the combination of habitat loss and climate change had the most severe effect. Yet, this combined effect was mostly smaller than expected from adding or multiplying effects of the individual environmental drivers. This seems to be because climate change shifts suitable habitats to regions less affected by habitat loss. Interspecific variation in range size responses depended mostly on the severity of environmental change, whereas responses in range filling and local abundance depended mostly on demographic properties of species. While most surviving populations concentrated in areas that remain climatically suitable, refugia for multiple species were overestimated by simply overlying habitat models and ignoring demography. Main conclusions Demographic models of range dynamics can simultaneously predict the response of range size, abundance and range filling to multiple drivers of environmental change. Demographic knowledge is particularly needed to predict abundance responses and to identify areas that can serve as biodiversity refugia under climate change. These findings highlight the need for data-driven, demographic assessments in conservation biogeography.},
  language  = {en}
}
@article{LevermannClarkMarzeionetal.2013,
  author    = {Levermann, Anders and Clark, Peter U. and Marzeion, Ben and Milne, Glenn A. and Pollard, David and Radic, Valentina and Robinson, Alexander},
  title     = {The multimillennial sea-level commitment of global warming},
  series = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America},
  volume    = {110},
  journal   = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America},
  number    = {34},
  publisher = {National Acad. of Sciences},
  address   = {Washington},
  issn      = {0027-8424},
  doi       = {10.1073/pnas.1219414110},
  pages     = {13745 -- 13750},
  year      = {2013},
  abstract  = {Global mean sea level has been steadily rising over the last century, is projected to increase by the end of this century, and will continue to rise beyond the year 2100 unless the current global mean temperature trend is reversed. Inertia in the climate and global carbon system, however, causes the global mean temperature to decline slowly even after greenhouse gas emissions have ceased, raising the question of how much sea-level commitment is expected for different levels of global mean temperature increase above preindustrial levels. Although sea-level rise over the last century has been dominated by ocean warming and loss of glaciers, the sensitivity suggested from records of past sea levels indicates important contributions should also be expected from the Greenland and Antarctic Ice Sheets. Uncertainties in the paleo-reconstructions, however, necessitate additional strategies to better constrain the sea-level commitment. Here we combine paleo-evidence with simulations from physical models to estimate the future sea-level commitment on a multimillennial time scale and compute associated regional sea-level patterns. Oceanic thermal expansion and the Antarctic Ice Sheet contribute quasi-linearly, with 0.4 m degrees C-1 and 1.2 m degrees C-1 of warming, respectively. The saturation of the contribution from glaciers is overcompensated by the nonlinear response of the Greenland Ice Sheet. As a consequence we are committed to a sea-level rise of approximately 2.3 m degrees C-1 within the next 2,000 y. Considering the lifetime of anthropogenic greenhouse gases, this imposes the need for fundamental adaptation strategies on multicentennial time scales.},
  language  = {en}
}
@article{WasofLenoirGalletMoronetal.2013,
  author    = {Wasof, Safaa and Lenoir, Jonathan and Gallet-Moron, Emilie and Jamoneau, Aurelien and Brunet, J{\"o}rg and Cousins, Sara A. O. and De Frenne, Pieter and Diekmann, Martin and Hermy, Martin and Kolb, Annette and Liira, Jaan and Verheyen, Kris and Wulf, Monika and Decocq, Guillaume},
  title     = {Ecological niche shifts of understorey plants along a latitudinal gradient of temperate forests in north-western Europe},
  series = {Global ecology and biogeography : a journal of macroecology},
  volume    = {22},
  journal   = {Global ecology and biogeography : a journal of macroecology},
  number    = {10},
  publisher = {Wiley-Blackwell},
  address   = {Hoboken},
  issn      = {1466-822X},
  doi       = {10.1111/geb.12073},
  pages     = {1130 -- 1140},
  year      = {2013},
  abstract  = {Aim In response to environmental changes and to avoid extinction, species may either track suitable environmental conditions or adapt to the modified environment. However, whether and how species adapt to environmental changes remains unclear. By focusing on the realized niche (i.e. the actual space that a species inhabits and the resources it can access as a result of limiting biotic factors present in its habitat), we here examine shifts in the realized-niche width (i.e. ecological amplitude) and position (i.e. ecological optimum) of 26 common and widespread forest understorey plants across their distributional ranges. Location Temperate forests along a ca. 1800-km-long latitudinal gradient from northern France to central Sweden and Estonia. Methods We derived species' realized-niche width from a -diversity metric, which increases if the focal species co-occurs with more species. Based on the concept that species' scores in a detrended correspondence analysis (DCA) represent the locations of their realized-niche positions, we developed a novel approach to run species-specific DCAs allowing the focal species to shift its realized-niche position along the studied latitudinal gradient while the realized-niche positions of other species were held constant. Results None of the 26 species maintained both their realized-niche width and position along the latitudinal gradient. Few species (9 of 26: 35\%) shifted their realized-niche width, but all shifted their realized-niche position. With increasing latitude, most species (22 of 26: 85\%) shifted their realized-niche position for soil nutrients and pH towards nutrient-poorer and more acidic soils. Main conclusions Forest understorey plants shifted their realized niche along the latitudinal gradient, suggesting local adaptation and/or plasticity. This macroecological pattern casts doubt on the idea that the realized niche is stable in space and time, which is a key assumption of species distribution models used to predict the future of biodiversity, hence raising concern about predicted extinction rates.},
  language  = {en}
}
@article{DeFrenneRodriguezSanchezCoomesetal.2013,
  author    = {De Frenne, Pieter and Rodriguez-Sanchez, Francisco and Coomes, David Anthony and B{\"a}ten, Lander and Verstr{\"a}ten, Gorik and Vellend, Mark and Bernhardt-R{\"o}mermann, Markus and Brown, Carissa D. and Brunet, J{\"o}rg and Cornelis, Johnny and Decocq, Guillaume M. and Dierschke, Hartmut and Eriksson, Ove and Gilliam, Frank S. and Hedl, Radim and Heinken, Thilo and Hermy, Martin and Hommel, Patrick and Jenkins, Michael A. and Kelly, Daniel L. and Kirby, Keith J. and Mitchell, Fraser J. G. and Naaf, Tobias and Newman, Miles and Peterken, George and Petrik, Petr and Schultz, Jan and Sonnier, Gregory and Van Calster, Hans and Waller, Donald M. and Walther, Gian-Reto and White, Peter S. and Woods, Kerry D. and Wulf, Monika and Graae, Bente Jessen and Verheyen, Kris},
  title     = {Microclimate moderates plant responses to macroclimate warming},
  series = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America},
  volume    = {110},
  journal   = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America},
  number    = {46},
  publisher = {National Acad. of Sciences},
  address   = {Washington},
  issn      = {0027-8424},
  doi       = {10.1073/pnas.1311190110},
  pages     = {18561 -- 18565},
  year      = {2013},
  abstract  = {Recent global warming is acting across marine, freshwater, and terrestrial ecosystems to favor species adapted to warmer conditions and/or reduce the abundance of cold-adapted organisms (i.e., "thermophilization" of communities). Lack of community responses to increased temperature, however, has also been reported for several taxa and regions, suggesting that "climatic lags" may be frequent. Here we show that microclimatic effects brought about by forest canopy closure can buffer biotic responses to macroclimate warming, thus explaining an apparent climatic lag. Using data from 1,409 vegetation plots in European and North American temperate forests, each surveyed at least twice over an interval of 12-67 y, we document significant thermophilization of ground-layer plant communities. These changes reflect concurrent declines in species adapted to cooler conditions and increases in species adapted to warmer conditions. However, thermophilization, particularly the increase of warm-adapted species, is attenuated in forests whose canopies have become denser, probably reflecting cooler growing-season ground temperatures via increased shading. As standing stocks of trees have increased in many temperate forests in recent decades, local microclimatic effects may commonly be moderating the impacts of macroclimate warming on forest understories. Conversely, increases in harvesting woody biomass-e.g., for bioenergy-may open forest canopies and accelerate thermophilization of temperate forest biodiversity.},
  language  = {en}
}
@phdthesis{Jaiser2013,
  author    = {Jaiser, Ralf},
  title     = {Dreidimensionale Diagnostik der großskaligen Zirkulation der Tropo- und Stratosph{\"a}re},
  url       = {http://nbn-resolving.de/urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus-69064},
  school      = {Universit{\"a}t Potsdam},
  year      = {2013},
  abstract  = {In dieser Arbeit werden Konzepte f{\"u}r die Diagnostik der großskaligen Zirkulation in der Troposph{\"a}re und Stratosph{\"a}re entwickelt. Der Fokus liegt dabei auf dem Energiehaushalt, auf der Wellenausbreitung und auf der Interaktion der atmosph{\"a}rischen Wellen mit dem Grundstrom. Die Konzepte werden hergeleitet, wobei eine neue Form des lokalen Eliassen-Palm-Flusses unter Einbeziehung der Feuchte eingef{\"u}hrt wird. Angewendet wird die Diagnostik dann auf den Reanalysedatensatz ERA-Interim und einen durch beobachtete Meerestemperatur- und Eisdaten angetriebenen Lauf des ECHAM6 Atmosph{\"a}renmodells. Die diagnostischen Werkzeuge zur Analyse der großskaligen Zirkulation sind einerseits n{\"u}tzlich, um das Verst{\"a}ndnis der Dynamik des Klimasystems weiter zu f{\"o}rdern. Andererseits kann das gewonnene Verst{\"a}ndnis des Zusammenhangs von Energiequellen und -senken sowie deren Verkn{\"u}pfung mit synoptischen und planetaren Wellensystemen und dem resultierenden Antrieb des Grundstroms auch verwendet werden, um Klimamodelle auf die korrekte Wiedergabe dieser Beobachtungen zu pr{\"u}fen. Hier zeigt sich, dass die Abweichungen im untersuchten ECHAM6-Modelllauf bez{\"u}glich des Energiehaushalts klein sind, jedoch teils starke Abweichungen bez{\"u}glich der Ausbreitung von atmosph{\"a}rischen Wellen existieren. Planetare Wellen zeigen allgemein zu große Intensit{\"a}ten in den Eliassen-Palm-Fl{\"u}ssen, w{\"a}hrend innerhalb der Strahlstr{\"o}me der oberen Troposph{\"a}re der Antrieb des Grundstroms durch synoptische Wellen verf{\"a}lscht ist, da deren vertikale Ausbreitung gegen{\"u}ber den Beobachtungen verschoben ist. Untersucht wird auch der Einfluss von arktischen Meereis{\"a}nderungen ausgehend vom Bedeckungsminimum im August/September bis in den Winter. Es werden starke positive Temperaturanomalien festgestellt, welche an der Oberfl{\"a}che am gr{\"o}ßten sind. Diese f{\"u}hren vor allem im Herbst zur Intensivierung von synoptischen Systemen in den arktischen Breiten, da die Stabilit{\"a}t der troposph{\"a}rischen Schichtung verringert ist. Im darauffolgenden Winter stellen sich barotrope bis in die Stratosph{\"a}re reichende {\"A}nderungen der großskaligen Zirkulation ein, welche auf Meereis{\"a}nderungen zur{\"u}ckzuf{\"u}hren sind. Der meridionale Druckgradient sinkt und f{\"u}hrt so zu einem Muster {\"a}hnlich einer negativen Phase der arktischen Oszillation in der Troposph{\"a}re und einem geschw{\"a}chten Polarwirbel in der Stratosph{\"a}re. Diese Zusammenh{\"a}nge werden ebenfalls in einem ECHAM6-Modelllauf untersucht, wobei vor allem der Erw{\"a}rmungstrend in der Arktis zu gering ist. Die großskaligen Ver{\"a}nderungen im Winter k{\"o}nnen zum Teil auch im Modelllauf festgestellt werden, jedoch zeigen sich insbesondere in der Stratosph{\"a}re Abweichungen f{\"u}r die Periode mit der geringsten Eisausdehnung. Die vertikale Ausbreitung planetarer Wellen von der Troposph{\"a}re in die Stratosph{\"a}re ist in ECHAM6 mit sehr großen Abweichungen wiedergegeben. Somit stellt die Wellenausbreitung insgesamt den gr{\"o}ßten in dieser Arbeit festgestellten Mangel in ECHAM6 dar.},
  language  = {de}
}
@phdthesis{Bischoff2013,
  author    = {Bischoff, Juliane},
  title     = {Microbial communities and their response to Pleistocene and Holocene climate variabilities in the Russian Arctic},
  url       = {http://nbn-resolving.de/urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus-68895},
  school      = {Universit{\"a}t Potsdam},
  year      = {2013},
  abstract  = {The Arctic is considered as a focal region in the ongoing climate change debate. The currently observed and predicted climate warming is particularly pronounced in the high northern latitudes. Rising temperatures in the Arctic cause progressive deepening and duration of permafrost thawing during the arctic summer, creating an 'active layer' with high bioavailability of nutrients and labile carbon for microbial consumption. The microbial mineralization of permafrost carbon creates large amounts of greenhouse gases, including carbon dioxide and methane, which can be released to the atmosphere, creating a positive feedback to global warming. However, to date, the microbial communities that drive the overall carbon cycle and specifically methane production in the Arctic are poorly constrained. To assess how these microbial communities will respond to the predicted climate changes, such as an increase in atmospheric and soil temperatures causing increased bioavailability of organic carbon, it is necessary to investigate the current status of this environment, but also how these microbial communities reacted to climate changes in the past. This PhD thesis investigated three records from two different study sites in the Russian Arctic, including permafrost, lake shore and lake deposits from Siberia and Chukotka. A combined stratigraphic approach of microbial and molecular organic geochemical techniques were used to identify and quantify characteristic microbial gene and lipid biomarkers. Based on this data it was possible to characterize and identify the climate response of microbial communities involved in past carbon cycling during the Middle Pleistocene and the Late Pleistocene to Holocene. It is shown that previous warmer periods were associated with an expansion of bacterial and archaeal communities throughout the Russian Arctic, similar to present day conditions. Different from this situation, past glacial and stadial periods experienced a substantial decrease in the abundance of Bacteria and Archaea. This trend can also be confirmed for the community of methanogenic archaea that were highly abundant and diverse during warm and particularly wet conditions. For the terrestrial permafrost, a direct effect of the temperature on the microbial communities is likely. In contrast, it is suggested that the temperature rise in scope of the glacial-interglacial climate variations led to an increase of the primary production in the Arctic lake setting, as can be seen in the corresponding biogenic silica distribution. The availability of this algae-derived carbon is suggested to be a driver for the observed pattern in the microbial abundance. This work demonstrates the effect of climate changes on the community composition of methanogenic archae. Methanosarcina-related species were abundant throughout the Russian Arctic and were able to adapt to changing environmental conditions. In contrast, members of Methanocellales and Methanomicrobiales were not able to adapt to past climate changes. This PhD thesis provides first evidence that past climatic warming led to an increased abundance of microbial communities in the Arctic, closely linked to the cycling of carbon and methane production. With the predicted climate warming, it may, therefore, be anticipated that extensive amounts of microbial communities will develop. Increasing temperatures in the Arctic will affect the temperature sensitive parts of the current microbiological communities, possibly leading to a suppression of cold adapted species and the prevalence of methanogenic archaea that tolerate or adapt to increasing temperatures. These changes in the composition of methanogenic archaea will likely increase the methane production potential of high latitude terrestrial regions, changing the Arctic from a carbon sink to a source.},
  language  = {en}
}
@phdthesis{Holsten2013,
  author    = {Holsten, Anne},
  title     = {Climate change vulnerability assessments in the regional context},
  url       = {http://nbn-resolving.de/urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus-66836},
  school      = {Universit{\"a}t Potsdam},
  year      = {2013},
  abstract  = {Adapting sectors to new conditions under climate change requires an understanding of regional vulnerabilities. Conceptually, vulnerability is defined as a function of sensitivity and exposure, which determine climate impacts, and adaptive capacity of a system. Vulnerability assessments for quantifying these components have become a key tool within the climate change field. However, there is a disagreement on how to make the concept operational in studies from a scientific perspective. This conflict leads to many still unsolved challenges, especially regarding the quantification and aggregation of the components and their suitable level of complexity. This thesis therefore aims at advancing the scientific foundation of such studies by translating the concept of vulnerability into a systematic assessment structure. This includes all components and implies that for each considered impact (e.g. flash floods) a clear sensitive entity is defined (e.g. settlements) and related to a direction of change for a specific climatic stimulus (e.g. increasing impact due to increasing days with heavy precipitation). Regarding the challenging aggregation procedure, two alternative methods allowing a cross-sectoral overview are introduced and their advantages and disadvantages discussed. This assessment structure is subsequently exemplified for municipalities of the German state North Rhine-Westphalia via an indicator-based deductive approach using information from literature. It can be transferred also to other regions. As for many relevant sectors, suitable indicators to express the vulnerability components are lacking, new quantification methods are developed and applied in this thesis, for example for the forestry and health sector. A lack of empirical data on relevant thresholds is evident, for example which climatic changes would cause significant impacts. Consequently, the multi-sectoral study could only provide relative measures for each municipality, in relation to the region. To fill this gap, an exemplary sectoral study was carried out on windthrow impacts in forests to provide an absolute quantification of the present and future impact. This is achieved by formulating an empirical relation between the forest characteristics and damage based on data from a past storm event. The resulting measure indicating the sensitivity is then combined with wind conditions. Multi-sectoral vulnerability assessments require considerable resources, which often hinders the implementation. Thus, in a next step, the potential for reducing the complexity is explored. To predict forest fire occurrence, numerous meteorological indices are available, spanning over a range of complexity. Comparing their performance, the single variable relative humidity outperforms complex indicators for most German states in explaining the monthly fire pattern. This is the case albeit it is itself an input factor in most indices. Thus, this meteorological factor alone is well suited to evaluate forest fire danger in many Germany regions and allows a resource-efficient assessment. Similarly, the complexity of methods is assessed regarding the application of the ecohydrological model SWIM to the German region of Brandenburg. The inter-annual soil moisture levels simulated by this model can only poorly be represented by simpler statistical approach using the same input data. However, on a decadal time horizon, the statistical approach shows a good performance and a strong dominance of the soil characteristic field capacity. This points to a possibility to reduce the input factors for predicting long-term averages, but the results are restricted by a lack of empirical data on soil water for validation. The presented assessments of vulnerability and its components have shown that they are still a challenging scientific undertaking. Following the applied terminology, many problems arise when implementing it for regional studies. Advances in addressing shortcomings of previous studies have been made by constructing a new systematic structure for characterizing and aggregating vulnerability components. For this, multiple approaches were presented, but they have specific advantages and disadvantages, which should also be carefully considered in future studies. There is a potential to simplify some methods, but more systematic assessments on this are needed. Overall, this thesis strengthened the use of vulnerability assessments as a tool to support adaptation by enhancing their scientific basis.},
  language  = {en}
}