@article{MesterWillnerFrieleretal.2021,
  author    = {Mester, Benedikt and Willner, Sven N. and Frieler, Katja and Schewe, Jacob},
  title     = {Evaluation of river flood extent simulated with multiple global hydrological models and climate forcings},
  series = {Environmental research letters : ERL / Institute of Physics},
  volume    = {16},
  journal   = {Environmental research letters : ERL / Institute of Physics},
  number    = {9},
  publisher = {IOP Publ. Ltd.},
  address   = {Bristol},
  issn      = {1748-9326},
  doi       = {10.1088/1748-9326/ac188d},
  pages     = {15},
  year      = {2021},
  abstract  = {Global flood models (GFMs) are increasingly being used to estimate global-scale societal and economic risks of river flooding. Recent validation studies have highlighted substantial differences in performance between GFMs and between validation sites. However, it has not been systematically quantified to what extent the choice of the underlying climate forcing and global hydrological model (GHM) influence flood model performance. Here, we investigate this sensitivity by comparing simulated flood extent to satellite imagery of past flood events, for an ensemble of three climate reanalyses and 11 GHMs. We study eight historical flood events spread over four continents and various climate zones. For most regions, the simulated inundation extent is relatively insensitive to the choice of GHM. For some events, however, individual GHMs lead to much lower agreement with observations than the others, mostly resulting from an overestimation of inundated areas. Two of the climate forcings show very similar results, while with the third, differences between GHMs become more pronounced. We further show that when flood protection standards are accounted for, many models underestimate flood extent, pointing to deficiencies in their flood frequency distribution. Our study guides future applications of these models, and highlights regions and models where targeted improvements might yield the largest performance gains.},
  language  = {en}
}
@article{HahnWeckWitthoeftetal.2021,
  author    = {Hahn, Daniela and Weck, Florian and Witth{\"o}ft, Michael and K{\"u}hne, Franziska},
  title     = {Assessment of counseling self-efficacy},
  series = {Frontiers in psychology / Frontiers Research Foundation},
  volume    = {12},
  journal   = {Frontiers in psychology / Frontiers Research Foundation},
  publisher = {Frontiers Research Foundation},
  address   = {Lausanne},
  issn      = {1664-1078},
  doi       = {10.3389/fpsyg.2021.780088},
  pages     = {10},
  year      = {2021},
  abstract  = {Background: Many authors regard counseling self-efficacy (CSE) as important in therapist development and training. The purpose of this study was to examine the factor structure, reliability, and validity of the German version of the Counselor Activity Self-Efficacy Scales-Revised (CASES-R). Method: The sample consisted of 670 German psychotherapy trainees, who completed an online survey. We examined the factor structure by applying exploratory and confirmatory factor analysis to the instrument as a whole. Results: A bifactor-exploratory structural equation modeling model with one general and five specific factors provided the best fit to the data. Omega hierarchical coefficients indicated optimal reliability for the general factor, acceptable reliability for the Action Skills-Revised (AS-R) factor, and insufficient estimates for the remaining factors. The CASES-R scales yielded significant correlations with related measures, but also with therapeutic orientations. Conclusion: We found support for the reliability and validity of the German CASES-R. However, the subdomains (except AS-R) should be interpreted with caution, and we do not recommend the CASES-R for comparisons between psychotherapeutic orientations.},
  language  = {en}
}
@article{WagenerReineckePianosi2022,
  author    = {Wagener, Thorsten and Reinecke, Robert and Pianosi, Francesca},
  title     = {On the evaluation of climate change impact models},
  series = {Wiley interdisciplinary reviews : Climate change},
  volume    = {13},
  journal   = {Wiley interdisciplinary reviews : Climate change},
  number    = {3},
  publisher = {Wiley},
  address   = {Hoboken},
  issn      = {1757-7780},
  doi       = {10.1002/wcc.772},
  pages     = {13},
  year      = {2022},
  abstract  = {In-depth understanding of the potential implications of climate change is required to guide decision- and policy-makers when developing adaptation strategies and designing infrastructure suitable for future conditions. Impact models that translate potential future climate conditions into variables of interest are needed to create the causal connection between a changing climate and its impact for different sectors. Recent surveys suggest that the primary strategy for validating such models (and hence for justifying their use) heavily relies on assessing the accuracy of model simulations by comparing them against historical observations. We argue that such a comparison is necessary and valuable, but not sufficient to achieve a comprehensive evaluation of climate change impact models. We believe that a complementary, largely observation-independent, step of model evaluation is needed to ensure more transparency of model behavior and greater robustness of scenario-based analyses. This step should address the following four questions: (1) Do modeled dominant process controls match our system perception? (2) Is my model's sensitivity to changing forcing as expected? (3) Do modeled decision levers show adequate influence? (4) Can we attribute uncertainty sources throughout the projection horizon? We believe that global sensitivity analysis, with its ability to investigate a model's response to joint variations of multiple inputs in a structured way, offers a coherent approach to address all four questions comprehensively. Such additional model evaluation would strengthen stakeholder confidence in model projections and, therefore, into the adaptation strategies derived with the help of impact models. This article is categorized under: Climate Models and Modeling > Knowledge Generation with Models Assessing Impacts of Climate Change > Evaluating Future Impacts of Climate Change},
  language  = {en}
}
@article{deBritoKuhlickeMarx2020,
  author    = {de Brito, Mariana Madruga and Kuhlicke, Christian and Marx, Andreas},
  title     = {Near-real-time drought impact assessment},
  series = {Environmental research letters},
  volume    = {15},
  journal   = {Environmental research letters},
  number    = {10},
  publisher = {IOP Publ.},
  address   = {Bristol},
  issn      = {1748-9326},
  doi       = {10.1088/1748-9326/aba4ca},
  pages     = {11},
  year      = {2020},
  abstract  = {Contemporary drought impact assessments have been constrained due to data availability, leading to an incomplete representation of impact trends. To address this, we present a novel method for the comprehensive and near-real-time monitoring of drought socio-economic impacts based on media reports. We tested its application using the case of the exceptional 2018/19 German drought. By employing text mining techniques, 4839 impact statements were identified, relating to livestock, agriculture, forestry, fires, recreation, energy and transport sectors. An accuracy of 95.6\% was obtained for their automatic classification. Furthermore, high levels of performance in terms of spatial and temporal precision were found when validating our results against independent data (e.g. soil moisture, average precipitation, population interest in droughts, crop yield and forest fire statistics). The findings highlight the applicability of media data for rapidly and accurately monitoring the propagation of drought consequences over time and space. We anticipate our method to be used as a starting point for an impact-based early warning system.},
  language  = {en}
}
@article{KreibichBottoMerzetal.2016,
  author    = {Kreibich, Heidi and Botto, Anna and Merz, Bruno and Schr{\"o}ter, Kai},
  title     = {Probabilistic, Multivariable Flood Loss Modeling on the Mesoscale with BT-FLEMO},
  series = {Risk analysis},
  volume    = {37},
  journal   = {Risk analysis},
  number    = {4},
  publisher = {Wiley},
  address   = {Hoboken},
  issn      = {0272-4332},
  doi       = {10.1111/risa.12650},
  pages     = {774 -- 787},
  year      = {2016},
  abstract  = {Flood loss modeling is an important component for risk analyses and decision support in flood risk management. Commonly, flood loss models describe complex damaging processes by simple, deterministic approaches like depth-damage functions and are associated with large uncertainty. To improve flood loss estimation and to provide quantitative information about the uncertainty associated with loss modeling, a probabilistic, multivariable Bagging decision Tree Flood Loss Estimation MOdel (BT-FLEMO) for residential buildings was developed. The application of BT-FLEMO provides a probability distribution of estimated losses to residential buildings per municipality. BT-FLEMO was applied and validated at the mesoscale in 19 municipalities that were affected during the 2002 flood by the River Mulde in Saxony, Germany. Validation was undertaken on the one hand via a comparison with six deterministic loss models, including both depth-damage functions and multivariable models. On the other hand, the results were compared with official loss data. BT-FLEMO outperforms deterministic, univariable, and multivariable models with regard to model accuracy, although the prediction uncertainty remains high. An important advantage of BT-FLEMO is the quantification of prediction uncertainty. The probability distribution of loss estimates by BT-FLEMO well represents the variation range of loss estimates of the other models in the case study.},
  language  = {en}
}
@misc{FranckeHeistermannKoehlietal.2022,
  author    = {Francke, Till and Heistermann, Maik and K{\"o}hli, Markus and Budach, Christian and Schr{\"o}n, Martin and Oswald, Sascha Eric},
  title     = {Assessing the feasibility of a directional cosmic-ray neutron sensing sensor for estimating soil moisture},
  series = {Postprints der Universit{\"a}t Potsdam : Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe},
  journal   = {Postprints der Universit{\"a}t Potsdam : Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe},
  issn      = {1866-8372},
  doi       = {10.25932/publishup-54422},
  url       = {http://nbn-resolving.de/urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-544229},
  pages     = {75 -- 92},
  year      = {2022},
  abstract  = {Cosmic-ray neutron sensing (CRNS) is a non-invasive tool for measuring hydrogen pools such as soil moisture, snow or vegetation. The intrinsic integration over a radial hectare-scale footprint is a clear advantage for averaging out small-scale heterogeneity, but on the other hand the data may become hard to interpret in complex terrain with patchy land use. This study presents a directional shielding approach to prevent neutrons from certain angles from being counted while counting neutrons entering the detector from other angles and explores its potential to gain a sharper horizontal view on the surrounding soil moisture distribution. Using the Monte Carlo code URANOS (Ultra Rapid Neutron-Only Simulation), we modelled the effect of additional polyethylene shields on the horizontal field of view and assessed its impact on the epithermal count rate, propagated uncertainties and aggregation time. The results demonstrate that directional CRNS measurements are strongly dominated by isotropic neutron transport, which dilutes the signal of the targeted direction especially from the far field. For typical count rates of customary CRNS stations, directional shielding of half-spaces could not lead to acceptable precision at a daily time resolution. However, the mere statistical distinction of two rates should be feasible.},
  language  = {en}
}
@article{FranckeHeistermannKoehlietal.2022,
  author    = {Francke, Till and Heistermann, Maik and K{\"o}hli, Markus and Budach, Christian and Schr{\"o}n, Martin and Oswald, Sascha Eric},
  title     = {Assessing the feasibility of a directional cosmic-ray neutron sensing sensor for estimating soil moisture},
  series = {Geoscientific Instrumentation, Methods and Data Systems},
  volume    = {11},
  journal   = {Geoscientific Instrumentation, Methods and Data Systems},
  publisher = {Copernicus Publ.},
  address   = {G{\"o}ttingen},
  issn      = {2193-0864},
  doi       = {10.5194/gi-11-75-2022},
  pages     = {75 -- 92},
  year      = {2022},
  abstract  = {Cosmic-ray neutron sensing (CRNS) is a non-invasive tool for measuring hydrogen pools such as soil moisture, snow or vegetation. The intrinsic integration over a radial hectare-scale footprint is a clear advantage for averaging out small-scale heterogeneity, but on the other hand the data may become hard to interpret in complex terrain with patchy land use. This study presents a directional shielding approach to prevent neutrons from certain angles from being counted while counting neutrons entering the detector from other angles and explores its potential to gain a sharper horizontal view on the surrounding soil moisture distribution. Using the Monte Carlo code URANOS (Ultra Rapid Neutron-Only Simulation), we modelled the effect of additional polyethylene shields on the horizontal field of view and assessed its impact on the epithermal count rate, propagated uncertainties and aggregation time. The results demonstrate that directional CRNS measurements are strongly dominated by isotropic neutron transport, which dilutes the signal of the targeted direction especially from the far field. For typical count rates of customary CRNS stations, directional shielding of half-spaces could not lead to acceptable precision at a daily time resolution. However, the mere statistical distinction of two rates should be feasible.},
  language  = {en}
}
@article{RauschBrockmeyerSchwerdtle2020,
  author    = {Rausch, Ann-Kristin and Brockmeyer, Robert and Schwerdtle, Tanja},
  title     = {Development and Validation of a QuEChERS-Based Liquid Chromatography Tandem Mass Spectrometry Multi-Method for the Determination of 38 Native and Modified Mycotoxins in Cereals},
  series = {Journal of Agricultural and Food Chemistry},
  volume    = {68},
  journal   = {Journal of Agricultural and Food Chemistry},
  number    = {16},
  publisher = {ACS Publications},
  address   = {Washington, DC},
  issn      = {0021-8561},
  doi       = {10.1021/acs.jafc.9b07491},
  pages     = {4657 -- 4669},
  year      = {2020},
  abstract  = {Here, a reliable and sensitive method for the determination of 38 (modified) mycotoxins was developed. Using a QuEChERS-based extraction method [acetonitrile/water/formic acid (75:20:5, v/v/v)], followed by two runs of high performance liquid chromatography tandem mass spectrometry with different conditions, relevant mycotoxins in cereals were analyzed. The method was validated according to the performance criteria defined by the European Commission (EC) in Commission Decision no. 657/2002. Limits of quantification ranged from 0.05 to 150 μg/kg. Good linearity (R2 > 0.99), recovery (61-120\%), repeatability (RSDr < 15\%), and reproducibility (RSDR < 20\%) were obtained for most mycotoxins. However, validation results for Alternaria toxins and fumonisins were unsatisfying. Matrix effects (-69 to +59\%) were compensated for using standard addition. Application on reference materials gave correct results while analysis of samples from local retailers revealed contamination, especially with deoxynivalenol, deoxynivalenol-3-glucoside, fumonisins, and zearalenone, in concentrations up to 369, 58, 1002, and 21 μg/kg, respectively.},
  language  = {en}
}
@article{KulawiakWilbertSchlacketal.2020,
  author    = {Kulawiak, Pawel R. and Wilbert, J{\"u}rgen and Schlack, Robert and B{\"o}rnert-Ringleb, Moritz},
  title     = {Prediction of child and adolescent outcomes with broadband and narrowband dimensions of internalizing and externalizing behavior using the child and adolescent version of the Strengths and Difficulties Questionnaire},
  series = {PLOS ONE},
  volume    = {15},
  journal   = {PLOS ONE},
  number    = {10},
  publisher = {PLOS},
  address   = {San Francisco, California},
  issn      = {1932-6203},
  doi       = {10.1371/journal.pone.0240312},
  pages     = {17},
  year      = {2020},
  abstract  = {The Strengths and Difficulties Questionnaire (SDQ) is a frequently used screening instrument for behavioral problems in children and adolescents. There is an ongoing controversy—not only in educational research—regarding the factor structure of the SDQ. Research results speak for a 3-factor as well as a 5-factor structure. The narrowband scales (5-factor structure) can be combined into broadband scales (3-factor structure). The question remains: Which factors (narrowband vs. broadband) are better predictors? With the prediction of child and adolescent outcomes (academic grades, well-being, and self-belief), we evaluated whether the broadband scales of internalizing and externalizing behavior (3-factor structure) or narrowband scales of behavior (5-factor structure) are better suited for predictive purposes in a cross-sectional study setting. The sample includes students in grades 5 to 9 (N = 4642) from the representative German Health Interview and Examination Survey for Children and Adolescents (KiGGS study). The results of model comparisons (broadband scale vs. narrowband scales) did not support the superiority of the broadband scales with regard to the prediction of child and adolescent outcomes. There is no benefit from subsuming narrowband scales (5-factor structure) into broadband scales (3-factor structure). The application of narrowband scales, providing a more differentiated picture of students' academic and social situation, was more appropriate for predictive purposes. For the purpose of identifying students at risk of struggling in educational contexts, using the set of narrowband dimensions of behavior seems to be more suitable.},
  language  = {en}
}
@misc{KulawiakWilbertSchlacketal.2020,
  author    = {Kulawiak, Pawel R. and Wilbert, J{\"u}rgen and Schlack, Robert and B{\"o}rnert-Ringleb, Moritz},
  title     = {Prediction of child and adolescent outcomes with broadband and narrowband dimensions of internalizing and externalizing behavior using the child and adolescent version of the Strengths and Difficulties Questionnaire},
  series = {Postprints der Universit{\"a}t Potsdam : Humanwissenschaftliche Reihe},
  journal   = {Postprints der Universit{\"a}t Potsdam : Humanwissenschaftliche Reihe},
  number    = {669},
  issn      = {1866-8364},
  doi       = {10.25932/publishup-48515},
  url       = {http://nbn-resolving.de/urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-485156},
  pages     = {19},
  year      = {2020},
  abstract  = {The Strengths and Difficulties Questionnaire (SDQ) is a frequently used screening instrument for behavioral problems in children and adolescents. There is an ongoing controversy—not only in educational research—regarding the factor structure of the SDQ. Research results speak for a 3-factor as well as a 5-factor structure. The narrowband scales (5-factor structure) can be combined into broadband scales (3-factor structure). The question remains: Which factors (narrowband vs. broadband) are better predictors? With the prediction of child and adolescent outcomes (academic grades, well-being, and self-belief), we evaluated whether the broadband scales of internalizing and externalizing behavior (3-factor structure) or narrowband scales of behavior (5-factor structure) are better suited for predictive purposes in a cross-sectional study setting. The sample includes students in grades 5 to 9 (N = 4642) from the representative German Health Interview and Examination Survey for Children and Adolescents (KiGGS study). The results of model comparisons (broadband scale vs. narrowband scales) did not support the superiority of the broadband scales with regard to the prediction of child and adolescent outcomes. There is no benefit from subsuming narrowband scales (5-factor structure) into broadband scales (3-factor structure). The application of narrowband scales, providing a more differentiated picture of students' academic and social situation, was more appropriate for predictive purposes. For the purpose of identifying students at risk of struggling in educational contexts, using the set of narrowband dimensions of behavior seems to be more suitable.},
  language  = {en}
}