@article{JannaschNickelSchulze2021,
author = {Jannasch, Franziska and Nickel, Daniela and Schulze, Matthias B.},
title = {The reliability and relative validity of predefined dietary patterns were higher than that of exploratory dietary patterns in the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC)-Potsdam population},
series = {British journal of nutrition : BJN : an international journal of nutritional science / published on behalf of The Nutrition Society},
volume = {125},
journal = {British journal of nutrition : BJN : an international journal of nutritional science / published on behalf of The Nutrition Society},
number = {11},
publisher = {Cambridge University Press},
address = {Cambridge},
issn = {1475-2662},
doi = {10.1017/S0007114520003517},
pages = {1270 -- 1280},
year = {2021},
abstract = {The aim of this study was to assess the ability of the FFQ to describe reliable and valid dietary pattern (DP) scores. In a total of 134 participants of the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition-Potsdam study aged 35-67 years, the FFQ was applied twice (baseline and after 1 year) to assess its reliability. Between November 1995 and March 1997, twelve 24-h dietary recalls (24HDR) as reference instrument were applied to assess the validity of the FFQ. Exploratory DP were derived by principal component analyses. Investigated predefined DP were the Alternative Healthy Eating Index (AHEI) and two Mediterranean diet indices. From dietary data of each FFQ, two exploratory DP were retained, but differed in highly loading food groups, resulting in moderate correlations (r 0 center dot 45-0 center dot 58). The predefined indices showed higher correlations between the FFQ (r(AHEI) 0 center dot 62, r(Mediterranean Diet Pyramid Index (MedPyr)) 0 center dot 62 and r(traditional Mediterranean Diet Score (tMDS)) 0 center dot 51). From 24HDR dietary data, one exploratory DP retained differed in composition to the first FFQ-based DP, but showed similarities to the second DP, reflected by a good correlation (r 0 center dot 70). The predefined DP correlated moderately (r 0 center dot 40-0 center dot 60). To conclude, long-term analyses on exploratory DP should be interpreted with caution, due to only moderate reliability. The validity differed extensively for the two exploratory DP. The investigated predefined DP showed a better reliability and a moderate validity, comparable to other studies. Within the two Mediterranean diet indices, the MedPyr performed better than the tMDs in this middle-aged, semi-urban German study population.},
language = {en}
}
@misc{JannaschNickelSchulze2020,
author = {Jannasch, Franziska and Nickel, Daniela and Schulze, Matthias B.},
title = {The reliability and relative validity of predefined dietary patterns were higher than that of exploratory dietary patterns in the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC)-Potsdam population},
series = {Zweitver{\"o}ffentlichungen der Universit{\"a}t Potsdam : Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe},
volume = {125},
journal = {Zweitver{\"o}ffentlichungen der Universit{\"a}t Potsdam : Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe},
number = {11},
issn = {1866-8372},
doi = {10.25932/publishup-55003},
url = {http://nbn-resolving.de/urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-550030},
pages = {13},
year = {2020},
abstract = {The aim of this study was to assess the ability of the FFQ to describe reliable and valid dietary pattern (DP) scores. In a total of 134 participants of the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition-Potsdam study aged 35-67 years, the FFQ was applied twice (baseline and after 1 year) to assess its reliability. Between November 1995 and March 1997, twelve 24-h dietary recalls (24HDR) as reference instrument were applied to assess the validity of the FFQ. Exploratory DP were derived by principal component analyses. Investigated predefined DP were the Alternative Healthy Eating Index (AHEI) and two Mediterranean diet indices. From dietary data of each FFQ, two exploratory DP were retained, but differed in highly loading food groups, resulting in moderate correlations (r 0 center dot 45-0 center dot 58). The predefined indices showed higher correlations between the FFQ (r(AHEI) 0 center dot 62, r(Mediterranean Diet Pyramid Index (MedPyr)) 0 center dot 62 and r(traditional Mediterranean Diet Score (tMDS)) 0 center dot 51). From 24HDR dietary data, one exploratory DP retained differed in composition to the first FFQ-based DP, but showed similarities to the second DP, reflected by a good correlation (r 0 center dot 70). The predefined DP correlated moderately (r 0 center dot 40-0 center dot 60). To conclude, long-term analyses on exploratory DP should be interpreted with caution, due to only moderate reliability. The validity differed extensively for the two exploratory DP. The investigated predefined DP showed a better reliability and a moderate validity, comparable to other studies. Within the two Mediterranean diet indices, the MedPyr performed better than the tMDs in this middle-aged, semi-urban German study population.},
language = {en}
}
@article{PradhanKropp2020,
author = {Pradhan, Prajal and Kropp, J{\"u}rgen},
title = {Interplay between diets, health, and climate change},
series = {Sustainability},
volume = {12},
journal = {Sustainability},
number = {9},
publisher = {MDPI},
address = {Basel},
issn = {2071-1050},
doi = {10.3390/su12093878},
pages = {14},
year = {2020},
abstract = {The world is facing a triple burden of undernourishment, obesity, and environmental impacts from agriculture while nourishing its population. This burden makes sustainable nourishment of the growing population a global challenge. Addressing this challenge requires an understanding of the interplay between diets, health, and associated environmental impacts (e.g., climate change). For this, we identify 11 typical diets that represent dietary habits worldwide for the last five decades. Plant-source foods provide most of all three macronutrients (carbohydrates, protein, and fat) in developing countries. In contrast, animal-source foods provide a majority of protein and fat in developed ones. The identified diets deviate from the recommended healthy diet with either too much (e.g., red meat) or too little (e.g., fruits and vegetables) food and nutrition supply. The total calorie supplies are lower than required for two diets. Sugar consumption is higher than recommended for five diets. Three and five diets consist of larger-than-recommended carbohydrate and fat shares, respectively. Four diets with a large share of animal-source foods exceed the recommended value of red meat. Only two diets consist of at least 400 gm/cap/day of fruits and vegetables while accounting for food waste. Prevalence of undernourishment and underweight dominates in the diets with lower calories. In comparison, a higher prevalence of obesity is observed for diets with higher calories with high shares of sugar, fat, and animal-source foods. However, embodied emissions in the diets do not show a clear relation with calorie supplies and compositions. Two high-calorie diets embody more than 1.5 t CO2eq/cap/yr, and two low-calorie diets embody around 1 t CO2eq/cap/yr. Our analysis highlights that sustainable and healthy diets can serve the purposes of both nourishing the population and, at the same time, reducing the environmental impacts of agriculture.},
language = {en}
}
@article{JannaschKroegerAgnolietal.2019,
author = {Jannasch, Franziska and Kr{\"o}ger, Janine and Agnoli, Claudia and Barricarte, Aurelio and Boeing, Heiner and Cayssials, Val{\´e}rie and Colorado-Yohar, Sandra and Dahm, Christina C. and Dow, Courtney and Fagherazzi, Guy and Franks, Paul W. and Freisling, Heinz and Gunter, Marc J. and Kerrison, Nicola D. and Key, Timothy J. and Khaw, Kay-Tee and K{\"u}hn, Tilman and Kyro, Cecilie and Mancini, Francesca Romana and Mokoroa, Olatz and Nilsson, Peter and Overvad, Kim and Palli, Domenico and Panico, Salvatore and Quiros Garcia, Jose Ramon and Rolandsson, Olov and Sacerdote, Carlotta and Sanchez, Maria-Jose and Sahrai, Mohammad Sediq and Sch{\"u}bel, Ruth and Sluijs, Ivonne and Spijkerman, Annemieke M. W. and Tjonneland, Anne and Tong, Tammy Y. N. and Tumino, Rosario and Riboli, Elio and Langenberg, Claudia and Sharp, Stephen J. and Forouhi, Nita G. and Schulze, Matthias Bernd and Wareham, Nicholas J.},
title = {Generalizability of a Diabetes-Associated Country-Specific Exploratory Dietary Pattern Is Feasible Across European Populations},
series = {The Journal of Nutrition},
volume = {149},
journal = {The Journal of Nutrition},
number = {6},
publisher = {Oxford Univ. Press},
address = {Oxford},
issn = {0022-3166},
doi = {10.1093/jn/nxz031},
pages = {1047 -- 1055},
year = {2019},
abstract = {Background: Population-specificity of exploratory dietary patterns limits their generalizability in investigations with type 2 diabetes incidence. Objective: The aim of this study was to derive country-specific exploratory dietary patterns, investigate their association with type 2 diabetes incidence, and replicate diabetes-associated dietary patterns in other countries. Methods: Dietary intake data were used, assessed by country-specific questionnaires at baseline of 11,183 incident diabetes cases and 14,694 subcohort members (mean age 52.9 y) from 8 countries, nested within the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition study (mean follow-up time 6.9 y). Exploratory dietary patterns were derived by principal component analysis. HRs for incident type 2 diabetes were calculated by Prentice-weighted Cox proportional hazard regression models. Diabetes-associated dietary patterns were simplified or replicated to be applicable in other countries. A meta-analysis across all countries evaluated the generalizability of the diabetes-association. Results: Two dietary patterns per country/UK-center, of which overall 3 dietary patterns were diabetes-associated, were identified. A risk-lowering French dietary pattern was not confirmed across other countries: pooled HRFrance per 1 SD: 1.00; 95\% CI: 0.90, 1.10. Risk-increasing dietary patterns, derived in Spain and UK-Norfolk, were confirmed, but only the latter statistically significantly: HRSpain: 1.09; 95\% CI: 0.97, 1.22 and HRUK-Norfolk: 1.12; 95\% CI: 1.04, 1.20. Respectively, this dietary pattern was characterized by relatively high intakes of potatoes, processed meat, vegetable oils, sugar, cake and cookies, and tea. Conclusions: Only few country/center-specific dietary patterns (3 of 18) were statistically significantly associated with diabetes incidence in this multicountry European study population. One pattern, whose association with diabetes was confirmed across other countries, showed overlaps in the food groups potatoes and processed meat with identified diabetes-associated dietary patterns from other studies. The study demonstrates that replication of associations of exploratory patterns with health outcomes is feasible and a necessary step to overcome population-specificity in associations from such analyses.},
language = {en}
}
@article{KriewaldPradhanCostaetal.2019,
author = {Kriewald, Steffen and Pradhan, Prajal and Costa, Lu{\´i}s F{\´i}l{\´i}pe Carvalho da and Ros, Anselmo Garcia Cantu and Kropp, J{\"u}rgen},
title = {Hungry cities: how local food self-sufficiency relates to climate change, diets, and urbanisation},
series = {Environmental research letters},
volume = {14},
journal = {Environmental research letters},
number = {9},
publisher = {IOP Publ. Ltd.},
address = {Bristol},
issn = {1748-9326},
doi = {10.1088/1748-9326/ab2d56},
pages = {9},
year = {2019},
abstract = {Using a newly developed model approach and combining it with remote sensing, population, and climate data, first insights are provided into how local diets, urbanisation, and climate change relates to local urban food self-sufficiency. In plain terms, by utilizing the global peri-urban (PU) food production potential approximately lbn urban residents (30\% of global urban population) can be locally nourished, whereby further urbanisation is by far the largest pressure factor on PU agriculture, followed by a change of diets, and climate change. A simple global food transport model which optimizes transport and neglects differences in local emission intensities indicates that CO2 emissions related to food transport can be reduced by a factor of 10.},
language = {en}
}
@article{PradhanLuedekeRoesseretal.2013,
author = {Pradhan, Prajal and L{\"u}deke, Matthias K. B. and R{\"o}sser, Dominik E. and Kropp, J{\"u}rgen},
title = {Embodied crop calories in animal products},
series = {Environmental research letters},
volume = {8},
journal = {Environmental research letters},
number = {4},
publisher = {IOP Publ. Ltd.},
address = {Bristol},
issn = {1748-9326},
doi = {10.1088/1748-9326/8/4/044044},
pages = {10},
year = {2013},
abstract = {Increases in animal products consumption and the associated environmental consequences have been a matter of scientific debate for decades. Consequences of such increases include rises in greenhouse gas emissions, growth of consumptive water use, and perturbation of global nutrients cycles. These consequences vary spatially depending on livestock types, their densities and their production system. In this letter, we investigate the spatial distribution of embodied crop calories in animal products. On a global scale, about 40\% of the global crop calories are used as livestock feed (we refer to this ratio as crop balance for livestock) and about 4 kcal of crop products are used to generate 1 kcal of animal products (embodied crop calories of around 4). However, these values vary greatly around the world. In some regions, more than 100\% of the crops produced is required to feed livestock requiring national or international trade to meet the deficit in livestock feed. Embodied crop calories vary between less than 1 for 20\% of the livestock raising areas worldwide and greater than 10 for another 20\% of the regions. Low values of embodied crop calories are related to production systems for ruminants based on fodder and forage, while large values are usually associated with production systems for non-ruminants fed on crop products. Additionally, we project the future feed demand considering three scenarios: (a) population growth, (b) population growth and changes in human dietary patterns and (c) changes in population, dietary patterns and feed conversion efficiency. When considering dietary changes, we project the global feed demand to be almost doubled (1.8-2.3 times) by 2050 compared to 2000, which would force us to produce almost equal or even more crops to raise our livestock than to directly nourish ourselves in the future. Feed demand is expected to increase over proportionally in Africa, South-Eastern Asia and Southern Asia, putting additional stress on these regions.},
language = {en}
}
@phdthesis{Pradhan2015,
author = {Pradhan, Prajal},
title = {Food demand and supply under global change},
url = {http://nbn-resolving.de/urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-77849},
school = {Universit{\"a}t Potsdam},
pages = {xvi, 141},
year = {2015},
abstract = {Anthropogenic activities have transformed the Earth's environment, not only on local level, but on the planetary-scale causing global change. Besides industrialization, agriculture is a major driver of global change. This change in turn impairs the agriculture sector, reducing crop yields namely due to soil degradation, water scarcity, and climate change. However, this is a more complex issue than it appears. Crop yields can be increased by use of agrochemicals and fertilizers which are mainly produced by fossil energy. This is important to meet the increasing food demand driven by global demographic change, which is further accelerated by changes in regional lifestyles. In this dissertation, we attempt to address this complex problem exploring agricultural potential globally but on a local scale. For this, we considered the influence of lifestyle changes (dietary patterns) as well as technological progress and their effects on climate change, mainly greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. Furthermore, we examined options for optimizing crop yields in the current cultivated land with the current cropping patterns by closing yield gaps. Using this, we investigated in a five-minute resolution the extent to which food demand can be met locally, and/or by regional and/or global trade. Globally, food consumption habits are shifting towards calorie rich diets. Due to dietary shifts combined with population growth, the global food demand is expected to increase by 60-110\% between 2005 and 2050. Hence, one of the challenges to global sustainability is to meet the growing food demand, while at the same time, reducing agricultural inputs and environmental consequences. In order to address the above problem, we used several freely available datasets and applied multiple interconnected analytical approaches that include artificial neural network, scenario analysis, data aggregation and harmonization, downscaling algorithm, and cross-scale analysis. Globally, we identified sixteen dietary patterns between 1961 and 2007 with food intakes ranging from 1,870 to 3,400 kcal/cap/day. These dietary patterns also reflected changing dietary habits to meat rich diets worldwide. Due to the large share of animal products, very high calorie diets that are common in the developed world, exhibit high total per capita emissions of 3.7-6.1 kg CO2eq./day. This is higher than total per capita emissions of 1.4-4.5 kg CO2eq./day associated with low and moderate calorie diets that are common in developing countries. Currently, 40\% of the global crop calories are fed to livestock and the feed calorie use is four times the produced animal calories. However, these values vary from less than 1 kcal to greater 10 kcal around the world. On the local and national scale, we found that the local and national food production could meet demand of 1.9 and 4.4 billion people in 2000, respectively. However, 1 billion people from Asia and Africa require intercontinental agricultural trade to meet their food demand. Nevertheless, these regions can become food self-sufficient by closing yield gaps that require location specific inputs and agricultural management strategies. Such strategies include: fertilizers, pesticides, soil and land improvement, management targeted on mitigating climate induced yield variability, and improving market accessibility. However, closing yield gaps in particular requires global N-fertilizer application to increase by 45-73\%, P2O5 by 22-46\%, and K2O by 2-3 times compare to 2010. Considering population growth, we found that the global agricultural GHG emissions will approach 7 Gt CO2eq./yr by 2050, while the global livestock feed demand will remain similar to 2000. This changes tremendously when diet shifts are also taken into account, resulting in GHG emissions of 20 Gt CO2eq./yr and an increase of 1.3 times in the crop-based feed demand between 2000 and 2050. However, when population growth, diet shifts, and technological progress by 2050 were considered, GHG emissions can be reduced to 14 Gt CO2eq./yr and the feed demand to nearly 1.8 times compare to that in 2000. Additionally, our findings shows that based on the progress made in closing yield gaps, the number of people depending on international trade can vary between 1.5 and 6 billion by 2050. In medium term, this requires additional fossil energy. Furthermore, climate change, affecting crop yields, will increase the need for international agricultural trade by 4\% to 16\%. In summary, three general conclusions are drawn from this dissertation. First, changing dietary patterns will significantly increase crop demand, agricultural GHG emissions, and international food trade in the future when compared to population growth only. Second, such increments can be reduced by technology transfer and technological progress that will enhance crop yields, decrease agricultural emission intensities, and increase livestock feed conversion efficiencies. Moreover, international trade dependency can be lowered by consuming local and regional food products, by producing diverse types of food, and by closing yield gaps. Third, location specific inputs and management options are required to close yield gaps. Sustainability of such inputs and management largely depends on which options are chosen and how they are implemented. However, while every cultivated land may not need to attain its potential yields to enable food security, closing yield gaps only may not be enough to achieve food self-sufficiency in some regions. Hence, a combination of sustainable implementations of agricultural intensification, expansion, and trade as well as shifting dietary habits towards a lower share of animal products is required to feed the growing population.},
language = {en}
}