@article{DidovetsKrysanovaBuergeretal.2019,
  author    = {Didovets, Iulii and Krysanova, Valentina and B{\"u}rger, Gerd and Snizhko, Sergiy and Balabukh, Vira and Bronstert, Axel},
  title     = {Climate change impact on regional floods in the Carpathian region},
  series = {Journal of hydrology : Regional studies},
  volume    = {22},
  journal   = {Journal of hydrology : Regional studies},
  publisher = {Elsevier},
  address   = {Amsterdam},
  issn      = {2214-5818},
  doi       = {10.1016/j.ejrh.2019.01.002},
  pages     = {14},
  year      = {2019},
  abstract  = {Study region: Tisza and Prut catchments, originating on the slopes of the Carpathian mountains. Study focus: The study reported here investigates (i) climate change impacts on flood risk in the region, and (ii) uncertainty related to hydrological modelling, downscaling techniques and climate projections. The climate projections used in the study were derived from five GCMs, downscaled either dynamically with RCMs or with the statistical downscaling model XDS. The resulting climate change scenarios were applied to drive the eco-hydrological model SWIM, which was calibrated and validated for the catchments in advance using observed climate and hydrological data. The changes in the 30-year flood hazards and 98 and 95 percentiles of discharge were evaluated for the far future period (2071-2100) in comparison with the reference period (1981-2010). New hydrological insights for the region: The majority of model outputs under RCP 4.5 show a small to strong increase of the 30-year flood level in the Tisza ranging from 4.5\% to 62\%, and moderate increase in the Prut ranging from 11\% to 22\%. The impact results under RCP 8.5 are more uncertain with changes in both directions due to high uncertainties in GCM-RCM climate projections, downscaling methods and the low density of available climate stations.},
  language  = {en}
}
@phdthesis{Hesse2018,
  author    = {Hesse, Cornelia},
  title     = {Integrated water quality modelling in meso- to large-scale catchments of the Elbe river basin under climate and land use change},
  doi       = {10.25932/publishup-42295},
  url       = {http://nbn-resolving.de/urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-422957},
  school      = {Universit{\"a}t Potsdam},
  pages     = {ix, 217},
  year      = {2018},
  abstract  = {In einer sich {\"a}ndernden Umwelt sind Fließgew{\"a}sser{\"o}kosysteme vielf{\"a}ltigen direkten und indirekten anthropogenen Belastungen ausgesetzt, die die Gew{\"a}sser sowohl in ihrer Menge als auch in ihrer G{\"u}te beeintr{\"a}chtigen k{\"o}nnen. Ein {\"u}berm{\"a}ßiger Eintrag von N{\"a}hrstoffen verursacht etwa Massenentwicklungen von Algen und Sauerstoffdefizite in den Gew{\"a}ssern, was zum Verfehlen der Ziele der Wasserrahmenrichtlinie (WRRL) f{\"u}hren kann. In vielen europ{\"a}ischen Einzugsgebieten und auch dem der Elbe sind solche Probleme zu beobachten. W{\"a}hrend der letzten Jahrzehnte entstanden diverse computergest{\"u}tzte Modelle, die zum Schutz und Management von Wasserressourcen genutzt werden k{\"o}nnen. Sie helfen beim Verstehen der N{\"a}hrstoffprozesse und Belastungspfade in Einzugsgebieten, bei der Absch{\"a}tzung m{\"o}glicher Folgen von Klima- und Landnutzungs{\"a}nderungen f{\"u}r die Wasserk{\"o}rper, sowie bei der Entwicklung eventueller Kompensationsmaßnahmen. Aufgrund der Vielzahl an sich gegenseitig beeinflussenden Prozessen ist die Modellierung der Wasserqualit{\"a}t komplexer und aufw{\"a}ndiger als eine reine hydrologische Modellierung. {\"O}kohydrologische Modelle zur Simulation der Gew{\"a}sserg{\"u}te, einschließlich des Modells SWIM (Soil and Water Integrated Model), bed{\"u}rfen auch h{\"a}ufig noch einer Weiterentwicklung und Verbesserung der Prozessbeschreibungen. Aus diesen {\"U}berlegungen entstand die vorliegende Dissertation, die sich zwei Hauptanliegen widmet: 1) einer Weiterentwicklung des N{\"a}hrstoffmoduls des {\"o}kohydrologischen Modells SWIM f{\"u}r Stickstoff- und Phosphorprozesse, und 2) der Anwendung des Modells SWIM im Elbegebiet zur Unterst{\"u}tzung eines anpassungsf{\"a}higen Wassermanagements im Hinblick auf m{\"o}gliche zuk{\"u}nftige {\"A}nderungen der Umweltbedingungen. Die kumulative Dissertation basiert auf f{\"u}nf wissenschaftlichen Artikeln, die in internationalen Zeitschriften ver{\"o}ffentlicht wurden. Im Zuge der Arbeit wurden verschiedene Modellanpassungen in SWIM vorgenommen, wie etwa ein einfacher Ansatz zur Verbesserung der Simulation der Wasser- und N{\"a}hrstoffverh{\"a}ltnisse in Feuchtgebieten, ein um Ammonium erweiterter Stickstoffkreislauf im Boden, sowie ein Flussprozessmodul, das Umwandlungsprozesse, Sauerstoffverh{\"a}ltnisse und Algenwachstum im Fließgew{\"a}sser simuliert, haupts{\"a}chlich angetrieben von Temperatur und Licht. Auch wenn dieser neue Modellansatz ein sehr komplexes Modell mit einer Vielzahl an neuen Kalibrierungsparametern und steigender Unsicherheit erzeugte, konnten gute Ergebnisse in den Teileinzugsgebieten und dem gesamten Gebiet der Elbe erzielt werden, so dass das Modell zur Absch{\"a}tzung m{\"o}glicher Folgen von Klimavariabilit{\"a}ten und ver{\"a}nderten anthropogenen Einfl{\"u}ssen f{\"u}r die Gew{\"a}sserg{\"u}te genutzt werden konnte. Das neue Fließgew{\"a}ssermodul ist ein wichtiger Beitrag zur Verbesserung der N{\"a}hrstoffmodellierung in SWIM, vor allem f{\"u}r Stoffe, die haupts{\"a}chlich aus Punktquellen in die Gew{\"a}sser gelangen (wie z.B. Phosphat). Der neue Modellansatz verbessert zudem die Anwendbarkeit von SWIM f{\"u}r Fragestellungen im Zusammenhang mit der WRRL, bei der biologische Qualit{\"a}tskomponenten (wie etwa Phytoplankton) eine zentrale Rolle spielen. Die dargestellten Ergebnisse der Wirkungsstudien k{\"o}nnen bei Entscheidungstr{\"a}gern und anderen Akteuren das Verst{\"a}ndnis f{\"u}r zuk{\"u}nftige Herausforderungen im Gew{\"a}ssermanagement erh{\"o}hen und dazu beitragen, ein angepasstes Management f{\"u}r das Elbeeinzugsgebiet zu entwickeln.},
  language  = {en}
}
@misc{DidovetsLobanovaBronstertetal.2017,
  author    = {Didovets, Iulii and Lobanova, Anastasia and Bronstert, Axel and Snizhko, Sergiy and Maule, Cathrine Fox and Krysanova, Valentina},
  title     = {Assessment of Climate Change Impacts on Water Resources in Three Representative Ukrainian Catchments Using Eco-Hydrological Modelling},
  url       = {http://nbn-resolving.de/urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-394956},
  pages     = {18},
  year      = {2017},
  abstract  = {The information about climate change impact on river discharge is vitally important for planning adaptation measures. The future changes can affect different water-related sectors. The main goal of this study was to investigate the potential water resource changes in Ukraine, focusing on three mesoscale river catchments (Teteriv, UpperWestern Bug, and Samara) characteristic for different geographical zones. The catchment scale watershed model—Soil and Water Integrated Model (SWIM)—was setup, calibrated, and validated for the three catchments under consideration. A set of seven GCM-RCM (General Circulation Model-Regional Climate Model) coupled climate scenarios corresponding to RCPs (Representative Concentration Pathways) 4.5 and 8.5 were used to drive the hydrological catchment model. The climate projections, used in the study, were considered as three combinations of low, intermediate, and high end scenarios. Our results indicate the shifts in the seasonal distribution of runoff in all three catchments. The spring high flow occurs earlier as a result of temperature increases and earlier snowmelt. The fairly robust trend is an increase in river discharge in the winter season, and most of the scenarios show a potential decrease in river discharge in the spring.},
  language  = {en}
}
@article{DidovetsLobanovaBronstertetal.2017,
  author    = {Didovets, Iulii and Lobanova, Anastasia and Bronstert, Axel and Snizhko, Sergiy and Maule, Cathrine Fox and Krysanova, Valentina},
  title     = {Assessment of Climate Change Impacts on Water Resources in Three Representative Ukrainian Catchments Using Eco-Hydrological Modelling},
  series = {Water},
  volume    = {9},
  journal   = {Water},
  number    = {3},
  publisher = {MDPI},
  address   = {Basel},
  issn      = {2073-4441},
  doi       = {10.3390/w9030204},
  pages     = {18},
  year      = {2017},
  abstract  = {The information about climate change impact on river discharge is vitally important for planning adaptation measures. The future changes can affect different water-related sectors. The main goal of this study was to investigate the potential water resource changes in Ukraine, focusing on three mesoscale river catchments (Teteriv, UpperWestern Bug, and Samara) characteristic for different geographical zones. The catchment scale watershed model—Soil and Water Integrated Model (SWIM)—was setup, calibrated, and validated for the three catchments under consideration. A set of seven GCM-RCM (General Circulation Model-Regional Climate Model) coupled climate scenarios corresponding to RCPs (Representative Concentration Pathways) 4.5 and 8.5 were used to drive the hydrological catchment model. The climate projections, used in the study, were considered as three combinations of low, intermediate, and high end scenarios. Our results indicate the shifts in the seasonal distribution of runoff in all three catchments. The spring high flow occurs earlier as a result of temperature increases and earlier snowmelt. The fairly robust trend is an increase in river discharge in the winter season, and most of the scenarios show a potential decrease in river discharge in the spring.},
  language  = {en}
}
@article{HesseKrysanovaVetteretal.2013,
  author    = {Hesse, Cornelia and Krysanova, Valentina and Vetter, Tobias and Reinhardt, Julia},
  title     = {Comparison of several approaches representing terrestrial and in-stream nutrient retention and decomposition in watershed modelling},
  series = {Ecological modelling : international journal on ecological modelling and engineering and systems ecolog},
  volume    = {269},
  journal   = {Ecological modelling : international journal on ecological modelling and engineering and systems ecolog},
  number    = {34},
  publisher = {Elsevier},
  address   = {Amsterdam},
  issn      = {0304-3800},
  doi       = {10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2013.08.017},
  pages     = {70 -- 85},
  year      = {2013},
  abstract  = {Retention and transformation of nutrients within a river catchment are important mechanisms influencing water quality measured at the watershed outlet. Nutrient storage and reduction can occur in soils as well as in the river and should be considered in water quality modelling. Consideration is possible using various methods at several points during modelling cascade. The study compares the effects of five different equation sets implemented into the Soil and Water Integrated Model (SWIM), one describing terrestrial and four in-stream retention with a rising complexity (including algal growth and death at the highest complexity level). The influences of the different methods alone and in combinations on water quality model outputs (NO3-N, NH4-N, PO4-P) were analyzed for the outlet of the large-scale Saale basin in Germany. Experiments revealed that nutrient forms coming primarily from diffuse sources are mostly influenced by retention processes in the soils of the catchment, and river processes are less important. Nutrients introduced to the river mainly by point sources are more subject to retention by in-stream processes, but both nutrient retention and transformation processes in soils and rivers have to be included. Although the best overall results could be achieved at the highest complexity level, the calibration efforts for this case are extremely high, and only minor improvements of overall model performance with the highest complexity were detected. Therefore, it could be reasoned that for some research questions also less complex model approaches would be sufficient, which could help to reduce unnecessary complexity and diminish high uncertainty in water quality modelling at the catchment scale. (C) 2013 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.},
  language  = {en}
}
@phdthesis{Wattenbach2008,
  author    = {Wattenbach, Martin},
  title     = {The hydrological effects of changes in forest area and species composition in the federal state of Brandenburg, Germany},
  url       = {http://nbn-resolving.de/urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus-27394},
  school      = {Universit{\"a}t Potsdam},
  year      = {2008},
  abstract  = {This thesis aims to quantify the human impact on the natural resource water at the landscape scale. The drivers in the federal state of Brandenburg (Germany), the area under investigation, are land-use changes induced by policy decisions at European and federal state level. The water resources of the federal state are particularly sensitive to changes in land-use due to low precipitation rates in the summer combined with sandy soils and high evapotranspiration rates. Key elements in landscape hydrology are forests because of their unique capacity to transport water from the soil to the atmosphere. Given these circumstances, decisions made at any level of administration that may have effects on the forest sector in the state are critical in relation to the water cycle. It is therefore essential to evaluate any decision that may change forest area and structure in such a sensitive region. Thus, as a first step, it was necessary to develop and implement a model able to simulate possible interactions and feedbacks between forested surfaces and the hydrological cycle at the landscape scale. The result is a model for simulating the hydrological properties of forest stands based on a robust computation of the temporal and spatial LAI (leaf area index) dynamics. The approach allows the simulation of all relevant hydrological processes with a low parameter demand. It includes the interception of precipitation and transpiration of forest stands with and without groundwater in the rooting zone. The model also considers phenology, biomass allocation, as well as mortality and simple management practices. It has been implemented as a module in the eco-hydrological model SWIM (Soil and Water Integrated Model). This model has been tested in two pre-studies to verify the applicability of its hydrological process description for the hydrological conditions typical for the state. The newly implemented forest module has been tested for Scots Pine (Pinus sylvestris) and in parts for Common Oak (Quercus robur and Q. petraea) in Brandenburg. For Scots Pine the results demonstrate a good simulation of annual biomass increase and LAI in addition to the satisfactory simulation of litter production. A comparison of the simulated and measured data of the May sprout for Scots pine and leaf unfolding for Oak, as well as the evaluation against daily transpiration measurements for Scots Pine, does support the applicability of the approach. The interception of precipitation has also been simulated and compared with weekly observed data for a Scots Pine stand which displays satisfactory results in both the vegetation periods and annual sums. After the development and testing phase, the model is used to analyse the effects of two scenarios. The first scenario is an increase in forest area on abandoned agricultural land that is triggered by a decrease in European agricultural production support. The second one is a shift in species composition from predominant Scots Pine to Common Oak that is based on decisions of the regional forestry authority to support a more natural species composition. The scenario effects are modelled for the federal state of Brandenburg on a 50m grid utilising spatially explicit land-use patterns. The results, for the first scenario, suggest a negative impact of an increase in forest area (9.4\% total state area) on the regional water balance, causing an increase in mean long-term annual evapotranspiration of 3.7\% at 100\% afforestation when compared to no afforestation. The relatively small annual change conceals a much more pronounced seasonal effect of a mean long-term evapotranspiration increase by 25.1\% in the spring causing a pronounced reduction in groundwater recharge and runoff. The reduction causes a lag effect that aggravates the scarcity of water resources in the summer. In contrast, in the second scenario, a change in species composition in existing forests (29.2\% total state area) from predominantly Scots Pine to Common Oak decreases the long-term annual mean evapotranspiration by 3.4\%, accompanied by a much weaker, but apparent, seasonal pattern. Both scenarios exhibit a high spatial heterogeneity because of the distinct natural conditions in the different regions of the state. Areas with groundwater levels near the surface are particularly sensitive to changes in forest area and regions with relatively high proportion of forest respond strongly to the change in species composition. In both cases this regional response is masked by a smaller linear mean effect for the total state area. Two critical sources of uncertainty in the model results have been investigated. The first one originates from the model calibration parameters estimated in the pre-study for lowland regions, such as the federal state. The combined effect of the parameters, when changed within their physical meaningful limits, unveils an overestimation of the mean water balance by 1.6\%. However, the distribution has a wide spread with 14.7\% for the 90th percentile and -9.9\% for the 10th percentile. The second source of uncertainty emerges from the parameterisation of the forest module. The analysis exhibits a standard deviation of 0.6 \% over a ten year period in the mean of the simulated evapotranspiration as a result of variance in the key forest parameters. The analysis suggests that the combined uncertainty in the model results is dominated by the uncertainties of calibration parameters. Therefore, the effect of the first scenario might be underestimated because the calculated increase in evapotranspiration is too small. This may lead to an overestimation of the water balance towards runoff and groundwater recharge. The opposite can be assumed for the second scenario in which the decrease in evapotranspiration might be overestimated.},
  language  = {en}
}