@book{KunzeStrohe2010, author = {Kunze, Karl-Kuno and Strohe, Hans Gerhard}, title = {Time-varying persistence in the German stock market}, url = {http://nbn-resolving.de/urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus-42046}, publisher = {Universit{\"a}t Potsdam}, year = {2010}, abstract = {This paper studies the persistence of daily returns of 21 German stocks from 1960 to 2008. We apply a widely used test based upon the modified R/S-Method by Lo [1991]. As an extension to Lux [1996] and Carbone et al. [2004] and in analogy to moving average or moving volatility, the statistics is calculated for moving windows of length 4, 8, and 16 years for every time series. Periods of persistence or long memory in returns can be found in some but not all time series. Robustness of results is verified by investigating stationarity and short memory effects.}, language = {en} } @book{KauperKunze2011, author = {Kauper, Benjamin and Kunze, Karl-Kuno}, title = {Modellierung von Aktienkursen im Lichte der Komplexit{\"a}tsforschung}, url = {http://nbn-resolving.de/urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus-52285}, publisher = {Universit{\"a}t Potsdam}, year = {2011}, abstract = {This paper offers empirical evidence on the power of Sornette et al's [2001] model of bubbles and crashes regarding the German stock market between 1960 and 2009. We identify relevant time periods and describe them with the function given by Sornette et al's model. Our results show some evidence in predicting crashes with the understanding of logarithmic periodic structures that are hidden in the stock price trajectories. It was shown that for the DAX most of the relevant parameters determining the shape of the logarithmic periodic structures are lying in the expected interval researched by Sornette et al. Further more the paper implicitly shows that the point of time of former crashes can be predicted with the presented formula. We conclude that the concept of financial time series conceived as purely random objects should be generalised as to admit complexity.}, language = {de} } @book{KunzeStrohe2010, author = {Kunze, Karl-Kuno and Strohe, Hans Gerhard}, title = {Antipersistence in German Stock Returns}, series = {Statistische Diskussionsbeitr{\"a}ge}, volume = {39}, journal = {Statistische Diskussionsbeitr{\"a}ge}, publisher = {Univ.}, address = {Potsdam}, issn = {0949-068x}, pages = {16 S.}, year = {2010}, language = {en} }