@article{DeplazesLueckgeStuutetal.2014,
  author    = {Deplazes, Gaudenz and L{\"u}ckge, Andreas and Stuut, Jan-Berend W. and Paetzold, J{\"u}rgen and Kuhlmann, Holger and Husson, Dorothee and Fant, Mara and Haug, Gerald H.},
  title     = {Weakening and strengthening of the Indian monsoon during Heinrich events and Dansgaard- Oeschger oscillations},
  series = {Paleoceanography},
  volume    = {29},
  journal   = {Paleoceanography},
  number    = {2},
  publisher = {American Geophysical Union},
  address   = {Washington},
  issn      = {0883-8305},
  doi       = {10.1002/2013PA002509},
  pages     = {99 -- 114},
  year      = {2014},
  abstract  = {The Dansgaard-Oeschger oscillations and Heinrich events described in North Atlantic sediments and Greenland ice are expressed in the climate of the tropics, for example, as documented in Arabian Sea sediments. Given the strength of this teleconnection, we seek to reconstruct its range of environmental impacts. We present geochemical and sedimentological data from core SO130-289KL from the Indus submarine slope spanning the last similar to 80 kyr. Elemental and grain size analyses consistently indicate that interstadials are characterized by an increased contribution of fluvial suspension from the Indus River. In contrast, stadials are characterized by an increased contribution of aeolian dust from the Arabian Peninsula. Decadal-scale shifts at climate transitions, such as onsets of interstadials, were coeval with changes in productivity-related proxies. Heinrich events stand out as especially dry and dusty events, indicating a dramatically weakened Indian summer monsoon, potentially increased winter monsoon circulation, and increased aridity on the Arabian Peninsula. This finding is consistent with other paleoclimate evidence for continental aridity in the northern tropics during these events. Our results strengthen the evidence that circum-North Atlantic temperature variations translate to hydrological shifts in the tropics, with major impacts on regional environmental conditions such as rainfall, river discharge, aeolian dust transport, and ocean margin anoxia.},
  language  = {en}
}
@phdthesis{Sarkar2014,
  author    = {Sarkar, Saswati},
  title     = {Holocene variations in the strength of the Indian Monsoon system},
  url       = {http://nbn-resolving.de/urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-74905},
  school      = {Universit{\"a}t Potsdam},
  pages     = {ix, 114},
  year      = {2014},
  abstract  = {The monsoon is an important component of the Earth's climate system. It played a vital role in the development and sustenance of the largely agro-based economy in India. A better understanding of past variations in the Indian Summer Monsoon (ISM) is necessary to assess its nature under global warming scenarios. Instead, our knowledge of spatiotemporal patterns of past ISM strength, as inferred from proxy records, is limited due to the lack of high-resolution paleo-hydrological records from the core monsoon domain. In this thesis I aim to improve our understanding of Holocene ISM variability from the core 'monsoon zone' (CMZ) in India. To achieve this goal, I tried to understand modern and thereafter reconstruct Holocene monsoonal hydrology, by studying surface sediments and a high-resolution sedimentary record from the saline-alkaline Lonar crater lake, central India. My approach relies on analyzing stable carbon and hydrogen isotope ratios from sedimentary lipid biomarkers to track past hydrological changes. In order to evaluate the relationship of the modern ecosystem and hydrology of the lake I studied the distribution of lipid biomarkers in the modern ecosystem and compared it to lake surface sediments. The major plants from dry deciduous mixed forest type produced a greater amount of leaf wax n-alkanes and a greater fraction of n-C31 and n-C33 alkanes relative to n-C27 and n-C29. Relatively high average chain length (ACL) values (29.6-32.8) for these plants seem common for vegetation from an arid and warm climate. Additionally I found that human influence and subsequent nutrient supply result in increased lake primary productivity, leading to an unusually high concentration of tetrahymanol, a biomarker for salinity and water column stratification, in the nearshore sediments. Due to this inhomogeneous deposition of tetrahymanol in modern sediments, I hypothesize that lake level fluctuation may potentially affect aquatic lipid biomarker distributions in lacustrine sediments, in addition to source changes. I reconstructed centennial-scale hydrological variability associated with changes in the intensity of the ISM based on a record of leaf wax and aquatic biomarkers and their stable carbon (δ13C) and hydrogen (δD) isotopic composition from a 10 m long sediment core from the lake. I identified three main periods of distinct hydrology over the Holocene in central India. The period between 10.1 and 6 cal. ka BP was likely the wettest during the Holocene. Lower ACL index values (29.4 to 28.6) of leaf wax n-alkanes and their negative δ13C values (-34.8 per mille to -27.8 per mille) indicated the dominance of woody C3 vegetation in the catchment, and negative δDwax (average for leaf wax n-alkanes) values (-171 per mille to -147 per mille) argue for a wet period due to an intensified monsoon. After 6 cal. ka BP, a gradual shift to less negative δ13C values (particularly for the grass derived n-C31) and appearance of the triterpene lipid tetrahymanol, generally considered as a marker for salinity and water column stratification, marked the onset of drier conditions. At 5.1 cal. ka BP increasing flux of leaf wax n-alkanes along with the highest flux of tetrahymanol indicated proximity of the lakeshore to the center due to a major lake level decrease. Rapid fluctuations in abundance of both terrestrial and aquatic biomarkers between 4.8 and 4 cal. ka BP indicated an unstable lake ecosystem, culminating in a transition to arid conditions. A pronounced shift to less negative δ13C values, in particular for n-C31 (-25.2 per mille to -22.8 per mille), over this period indicated a change of dominant vegetation to C4 grasses. Along with a 40 per mille increase in leaf wax n-alkane δD values, which likely resulted from less rainfall and/or higher plant evapotranspiration, I interpret this period to reflect the driest conditions in the region during the last 10.1 ka. This transition led to protracted late Holocene arid conditions and the establishment of a permanently saline lake. This is supported by the high abundance of tetrahymanol. A late Holocene peak of cyanobacterial biomarker input at 1.3 cal. ka BP might represent an event of lake eutrophication, possibly due to human impact and the onset of cattle/livestock farming in the catchment. The most intriguing feature of the mid-Holocene driest period was the high amplitude and rapid fluctuations in δDwax values, probably due to a change in the moisture source and/or precipitation seasonality. I hypothesize that orbital induced weakening of the summer solar insolation and associated reorganization of the general atmospheric circulation were responsible for an unstable hydroclimate in the mid-Holocene in the CMZ. My findings shed light onto the sequence of changes during mean state changes of the monsoonal system, once an insolation driven threshold has been passed, and show that small changes in solar insolation can be associated to major environmental changes and large fluctuations in moisture source, a scenario that may be relevant with respect to future changes in the ISM system.},
  language  = {en}
}
@phdthesis{Knopf2006,
  author    = {Knopf, Brigitte},
  title     = {On intrinsic uncertainties in earth system modelling},
  url       = {http://nbn-resolving.de/urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus-10949},
  school      = {Universit{\"a}t Potsdam},
  year      = {2006},
  abstract  = {Uncertainties are pervasive in the Earth System modelling. This is not just due to a lack of knowledge about physical processes but has its seeds in intrinsic, i.e. inevitable and irreducible, uncertainties concerning the process of modelling as well. Therefore, it is indispensable to quantify uncertainty in order to determine, which are robust results under this inherent uncertainty. The central goal of this thesis is to explore how uncertainties map on the properties of interest such as phase space topology and qualitative dynamics of the system. We will address several types of uncertainty and apply methods of dynamical systems theory on a trendsetting field of climate research, i.e. the Indian monsoon. For the systematic analysis concerning the different facets of uncertainty, a box model of the Indian monsoon is investigated, which shows a saddle node bifurcation against those parameters that influence the heat budget of the system and that goes along with a regime shift from a wet to a dry summer monsoon. As some of these parameters are crucially influenced by anthropogenic perturbations, the question is whether the occurrence of this bifurcation is robust against uncertainties in parameters and in the number of considered processes and secondly, whether the bifurcation can be reached under climate change. Results indicate, for example, the robustness of the bifurcation point against all considered parameter uncertainties. The possibility of reaching the critical point under climate change seems rather improbable. A novel method is applied for the analysis of the occurrence and the position of the bifurcation point in the monsoon model against parameter uncertainties. This method combines two standard approaches: a bifurcation analysis with multi-parameter ensemble simulations. As a model-independent and therefore universal procedure, this method allows investigating the uncertainty referring to a bifurcation in a high dimensional parameter space in many other models. With the monsoon model the uncertainty about the external influence of El Ni{\~n}o / Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is determined. There is evidence that ENSO influences the variability of the Indian monsoon, but the underlying physical mechanism is discussed controversially. As a contribution to the debate three different hypotheses are tested of how ENSO and the Indian summer monsoon are linked. In this thesis the coupling through the trade winds is identified as key in linking these two key climate constituents. On the basis of this physical mechanism the observed monsoon rainfall data can be reproduced to a great extent. Moreover, this mechanism can be identified in two general circulation models (GCMs) for the present day situation and for future projections under climate change. Furthermore, uncertainties in the process of coupling models are investigated, where the focus is on a comparison of forced dynamics as opposed to fully coupled dynamics. The former describes a particular type of coupling, where the dynamics from one sub-module is substituted by data. Intrinsic uncertainties and constraints are identified that prevent the consistency of a forced model with its fully coupled counterpart. Qualitative discrepancies between the two modelling approaches are highlighted, which lead to an overestimation of predictability and produce artificial predictability in the forced system. The results suggest that bistability and intermittent predictability, when found in a forced model set-up, should always be cross-validated with alternative coupling designs before being taken for granted. All in this, this thesis contributes to the fundamental issue of dealing with uncertainties the climate modelling community is confronted with. Although some uncertainties allow for including them in the interpretation of the model results, intrinsic uncertainties could be identified, which are inevitable within a certain modelling paradigm and are provoked by the specific modelling approach.},
  subject      = {Unsicherheit},
  language  = {en}
}
@phdthesis{Zickfeld2003,
  author    = {Zickfeld, Kirsten},
  title     = {Modeling large-scale singular climate events for integrated assessment},
  url       = {http://nbn-resolving.de/urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-0001176},
  school      = {Universit{\"a}t Potsdam},
  year      = {2003},
  abstract  = {Erkenntnisse aus pal{\"a}oklimatologischen Studien, theoretischen Betrachtungen und Modellsimulationen deuten darauf hin, dass anthropogene Emissionen von Treibhausgasen und Aerosolen zu großskaligen, singul{\"a}ren Klimaereignissen f{\"u}hren k{\"o}nnten. Diese bezeichnen stark nichtlineare, abrupte Klima{\"a}nderungen, mit regionalen bis hin zu globalen Auswirkungen. Ziel dieser Arbeit ist die Entwicklung von Modellen zweier maßgeblicher Komponenten des Klimasystems, die singul{\"a}res Verhalten aufweisen k{\"o}nnten: die atlantische thermohaline Zirkulation (THC) und der indische Monsun. Diese Modelle sind so konzipiert, dass sie den Anforderungen der "Integrated Assessment"-Modellierung gen{\"u}gen, d.h., sie sind realistisch, recheneffizient, transparent und flexibel. Das THC-Modell ist ein einfaches, interhemisph{\"a}risches Boxmodell, das anhand von Daten kalibriert wird, die mit einem gekoppelten Klimamodell mittlerer Komplexit{\"a}t erzeugt wurden. Das Modell wird durch die globale Mitteltemperatur angetrieben, die mit Hilfe eines linearen Downscaling-Verfahrens in regionale W{\"a}rme- und S{\"u}ßwasserfl{\"u}sse {\"u}bersetzt wird. Die Ergebnisse einer Vielzahl von zeitabh{\"a}ngigen Simulationen zeigen, dass das Modell in der Lage ist, maßgebliche Eigenschaften des Verhaltens komplexer Klimamodelle wiederzugeben, wie die Sensitivit{\"a}t bez{\"u}glich des Ausmaßes, der regionalen Verteilung und der Rate der Klima{\"a}nderung. Der indische Monsun wird anhand eines neuartigen eindimensionalen Boxmodells der tropischen Atmosph{\"a}re beschrieben. Dieses enth{\"a}lt Parmetrisierungen der Oberfl{\"a}chen- und Strahlungsfl{\"u}sse, des hydrologischen Kreislaufs und derHydrologie der Landoberfl{\"a}che. Trotz des hohen Idealisierungsgrades ist das Modell in der Lage, relevante Aspekte der beobachteten Monsundynamik, wie z.B. den Jahresgang des Niederschlags und das Eintritts- sowie R{\"u}ckzugsdatum des Sommermonsuns, zufrieden stellend zu simulieren. Außerdem erfasst das Modell die Sensitivit{\"a}tdes Monsuns bez{\"u}glich {\"A}nderungen der Treibhausgas- und Aerosolkonzentrationen, die aus komplexeren Modellen bekannt sind. Eine vereinfachte Version des Monsunmodells wird f{\"u}r die Untersuchung des qualitativen Systemverhaltens in Abh{\"a}ngigkeit von {\"A}nderungen der Randbedingungen eingesetzt. Das bemerkenswerteste Ergebnis ist das Auftreten einer Sattelknotenbifurkation des Sommermonsuns f{\"u}r kritische Werte der Albedo oder der Sonneneinstrahlung. Dar{\"u}ber hinaus weist das Modell zwei stabile Zust{\"a}nde auf: neben dem niederschlagsreichen Sommermonsun besteht ein Zustand, der sich durch einen schwachen hydrologischen Kreislauf auszeichnet. Das Beachtliche an diesen Ergebnissen ist, dass anthropogene St{\"o}rungen der plantetaren Albedo, wie Schwefelemissionen und/oder Landnutzungs{\"a}nderungen, zu einer Destabilisierung des indischen Monsuns f{\"u}hren k{\"o}nnten. Das THC-Boxmodell findet exemplarische Anwendung in einem "Integrated Assessment" von Klimaschutzstrategien. Basierend auf dem konzeptionellen und methodischen Ger{\"u}st des Leitplankenansatzes werden Emissionskorridore (d.h. zul{\"a}ssige Spannen an CO2-Emissionen) berechnet, die das Risiko eines THC-Zusammenbruchs begrenzen sowie sozio{\"o}konomische Randbedingungen ber{\"u}cksichtigen. Die Ergebnisse zeigen u.a. eine starke Abh{\"a}ngigkeit der Breite der Emissionskorridore von der Klima- und hydrologischen Sensitivit{\"a}t. F{\"u}r kleine Werte einer oder beider Sensitivit{\"a}ten liegt der obere Korridorrand bei weit h{\"o}heren Emissionswerten als jene, die von plausiblen Emissionsszenarien f{\"u}r das 21. Jahrhundert erreicht werden. F{\"u}r große Werte der Sensitivit{\"a}ten hingegen, verlassen schon niedrige Emissionsszenarien den Korridor in den fr{\"u}hen Jahrzehnten des 21. Jahrhunderts. Dies impliziert eine Abkehr von den gegenw{\"a}rtigen Emissionstrends innherhalb der kommenden Jahrzehnte, wenn das Risko eines THC Zusammenbruchs gering gehalten werden soll. Anhand einer Vielzahl von Anwendungen - von Sensitivit{\"a}ts- {\"u}ber Bifurkationsanalysen hin zu integrierter Modellierung - zeigt diese Arbeit den Wert reduzierter Modelle auf. Die Ergebnisse und die daraus zu ziehenden Schlussfolgerungen liefern einen wertvollen Beitrag zu der wissenschaftlichen und politischen Diskussion bez{\"u}glich der Folgen des anthropogenen Klimawandels und der langfristigen Klimaschutzziele.},
  language  = {en}
}