@article{TianCaoDallmeyeretal.2017,
  author    = {Tian, Fang and Cao, Xianyong and Dallmeyer, Anne and Zhao, Yan and Ni, Jian and Herzschuh, Ulrike},
  title     = {Pollen-climate relationships in time (9 ka, 6 ka, 0 ka) and space (upland vs. lowland) in eastern continental Asia},
  series = {Quaternary science reviews : the international multidisciplinary research and review journal},
  volume    = {156},
  journal   = {Quaternary science reviews : the international multidisciplinary research and review journal},
  publisher = {Elsevier},
  address   = {Oxford},
  issn      = {0277-3791},
  doi       = {10.1016/j.quascirev.2016.11.027},
  pages     = {1 -- 11},
  year      = {2017},
  abstract  = {Temporal and spatial stability of the vegetation climate relationship is a basic ecological assumption for pollen-based quantitative inferences of past climate change and for predicting future vegetation. We explore this assumption for the Holocene in eastern continental Asia (China, Mongolia). Boosted regression trees (BRT) between fossil pollen taxa percentages (Abies, Artemisia, Betula, Chenopodiaceae, Cyperaceae, Ephedra, Picea, Pinus, Poaceae and Quercus) and climate model outputs of mean annual precipitation (P-ann) and mean temperature of the warmest month (Mt(wa)) for 9 and 6 ka (ka = thousand years before present) were set up and results compared to those obtained from relating modern pollen to modern climate. Overall, our results reveal only slight temporal differences in the pollen climate relationships. Our analyses suggest that the importance of P-ann compared with Mt(wa) for taxa distribution is higher today than it was at 6 ka and 9 ka. In particular, the relevance of P-ann for Picea and Pinus increases and has become the main determinant. This change in the climate tree pollen relationship parallels a widespread tree pollen decrease in north-central China and the eastern Tibetan Plateau. We assume that this is at least partly related to vegetation climate disequilibrium originating from human impact. Increased atmospheric CO2 concentration may have permitted the expansion of moisture-loving herb taxa (Cyperaceae and Poaceae) during the late Holocene into arid/semi-arid areas. We furthermore find that the pollen climate relationship between north-central China and the eastern Tibetan Plateau is generally similar, but that regional differences are larger than temporal differences. In summary, vegetation climate relationships in China are generally stable in space and time, and pollen-based climate reconstructions can be applied to the Holocene. Regional differences imply the calibration-set should be restricted spatially.},
  language  = {en}
}
@article{PalagushkinaWetterichSchirrmeisteretal.2017,
  author    = {Palagushkina, Olga V. and Wetterich, Sebastian and Schirrmeister, Lutz and Nazarova, Larisa B.},
  title     = {Modern and fossil diatom assemblages from Bol'shoy Lyakhovsky Island (New Siberian Archipelago, Arctic Siberia)},
  series = {Contemporary Problems of Ecology},
  volume    = {10},
  journal   = {Contemporary Problems of Ecology},
  publisher = {Pleiades Publ.},
  address   = {New York},
  issn      = {1995-4255},
  doi       = {10.1134/S1995425517040060},
  pages     = {380 -- 394},
  year      = {2017},
  abstract  = {This article discusses the results of a taxonomic and ecological investigation of diatoms from polygonal ponds and Quaternary permafrost deposits of Bol'shoy Lyakhovsky Island (New Siberian Archipelago) and the reconstruction of climatic changes on the Island during late Pleistocene/Holocene transition using fossil diatom assemblages from the permafrost deposits. The taxonomic list of diatoms includes 159 diatom species. The main ecological factors that determine the distribution of diatoms in the investigated data set are mean July air temperature, рН, electrical conductivity, water depth, and concentrations of Si4+ and Al3+. An increase in water depth and stable lacustrine conditions in the Lateglacial-Holocene in the ancient thermokarst lake relate to Lateglacial warming before 11860 ± 160 years BP and during the early Holocene between 11210 ± 160 and 7095 ± 60 years BP.},
  language  = {en}
}
@article{SyrykhNazarovaHerzschuhetal.2017,
  author    = {Syrykh, Lydmila S. and Nazarova, Larisa B. and Herzschuh, Ulrike and Subetto, D. A. and Grekov, I. M.},
  title     = {Reconstruction of palaeoecological and palaeoclimatic conditions of the Holocene in the south of the Taimyr according to an analysis of lake sediments},
  series = {Contemporary Problems of Ecology},
  volume    = {10},
  journal   = {Contemporary Problems of Ecology},
  publisher = {Pleiades Publ.},
  address   = {New York},
  issn      = {1995-4255},
  doi       = {10.1134/S1995425517040114},
  pages     = {363 -- 369},
  year      = {2017},
  abstract  = {A sediment core from Khatanga-12 Lake (Taimyr Peninsula, Krasnoyarsk krai) has been studied. The 131.5-cm-long core covers ca. 7100 years of sedimentation. Chironomid analysis, a qualitative reconstruction of the paleoenvironment in the region, and a quantitative reconstruction of variations of the mean July air temperature and in the water depth of the lake have been performed using Northern Russia chironomid-inferred mean July temperature models (Nazarova et al., 2008, 2011, 2015). Khatanga-12 Lake was formed during the Middle Holocene warming as a result of thermokarst processes. The development of the lake ecosystem at different stages of its development was influenced by climatic and cryolithogenic factors. The Middle Holocene warming, which occurred around 7100-6250 cal. years BP, activated thermokarst processes and resulted in the formation of the lake basin. Later, between 6250 and 4500 cal. years BP, a period of cooling took place, as is proved by chironomid analysis. The bottom sediments of the lake during this period were formed by erosion processes on the lake shores. The reconstructed conditions were close to the modern after 2500 cal. years BP.},
  language  = {en}
}
@article{ZhilichRudayaKrivonogovetal.2017,
  author    = {Zhilich, Snezhana and Rudaya, Natalia and Krivonogov, Sergei and Nazarova, Larisa B. and Pozdnyakov, Dmitry},
  title     = {Environmental dynamics of the Baraba forest-steppe (Siberia) over the last 8000 years and their impact on the types of economic life of the population},
  series = {Quaternary science reviews : the international multidisciplinary research and review journal},
  volume    = {163},
  journal   = {Quaternary science reviews : the international multidisciplinary research and review journal},
  publisher = {Elsevier},
  address   = {Oxford},
  issn      = {0277-3791},
  doi       = {10.1016/j.quascirev.2017.03.022},
  pages     = {152 -- 161},
  year      = {2017},
  abstract  = {This article offers a reconstruction of the vegetation and climate of the south-western Siberian Baraba forest-steppe area during the last ca. 8000 years. The analysis of palynological data from the sediment core of Lake Bolshie Toroki using quantitative methods has made it possible to reconstruct changes of the dominant types of vegetation and mean July air temperatures. Coniferous forests grew in the vicinity of the lake, and mean July air temperatures were similar to present-day ones between 7.9 and 7.0 kyr BP. The warmest and driest climate occurred at 7.0-5.0 kyr BP. At that time, the region had open steppe landscapes; birch groves began to spread. A cooling trend is seen after 5.5 kyr BP, when forest-steppe began to emerge. Steppe communities started to dominate again after 1.5 kyr BP. Mean July air temperatures lower than now are reconstructed for the period of 1.9-1 kyr BP, and then the temperatures became similar to present-day ones. Comparing the archaeological data on the types of economy of the population which inhabited the Baraba forest-steppe with the data on changes in the natural environment revealed a connection between the gradual transition from hunting and fishing to livestock breeding and the development of forest-steppe landscapes with a decrease in the area covered by forests. The development of the forest-steppe as an ecotonic landscape starting around 5 kyr BP might have contributed to the coexistence of several archaeological cultures with different types of economy on the same territory. (C) 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.},
  language  = {en}
}
@article{WangBekeschusHandorfetal.2017,
  author    = {Wang, Yongbo and Bekeschus, Benjamin and Handorf, Doerthe and Liu, Xingqi and Dallmeyer, Anne and Herzschuh, Ulrike},
  title     = {Coherent tropical-subtropical Holocene see-saw moisture patterns in the Eastern Hemisphere monsoon systems},
  series = {Quaternary science reviews : the international multidisciplinary research and review journal},
  volume    = {169},
  journal   = {Quaternary science reviews : the international multidisciplinary research and review journal},
  publisher = {Elsevier},
  address   = {Oxford},
  issn      = {0277-3791},
  doi       = {10.1016/j.quascirev.2017.06.006},
  pages     = {231 -- 242},
  year      = {2017},
  abstract  = {The concept of a Global Monsoon (GM) has been proposed based on modern precipitation observations, but its application over a wide range of temporal scales is still under debate. Here, we present a synthesis of 268 continental paleo-moisture records collected from monsoonal systems in the Eastern Hemisphere, including the East Asian Monsoon (EAsM), the Indian Monsoon (IM), the East African Monsoon (EAfM), and the Australian Monsoon (AuM) covering the last 18,000 years. The overall pattern of late Glacial to Holocene moisture change is consistent with those inferred from ice cores and marine records. With respect to the last 10,000 years (10 ka), i.e. a period that has high spatial coverage, a Fuzzy c-Means clustering analysis of the moisture index records together with "Xie-Beni" index reveals four clusters of our data set. The paleoclimatic meaning of each cluster is interpreted considering the temporal evolution and spatial distribution patterns. The major trend in the tropical AuM, EAfM, and IM regions is a gradual decrease in moisture conditions since the early Holocene. Moisture changes in the EAsM regions show maximum index values between 8 and 6 ka. However, records located in nearby subtropical areas, i.e. in regions not influenced by the intertropical convergence zone, show an opposite trend compared to the tropical monsoon regions (AuM, EAfM and IM), i.e. a gradual increase. Analyses of modern meteorological data reveal the same spatial patterns as in the paleoclimate records such that, in times of overall monsoon strengthening, lower precipitation rates are observed in the nearby subtropical areas. We explain this pattern as the effect of a strong monsoon circulation suppressing air uplift in nearby subtropical areas, and hence hindering precipitation. By analogy to the modern system, this would mean that during the early Holocene strong monsoon period, the intensified ascending airflows within the monsoon domains led to relatively weaker ascending or even descending airflows in the adjacent subtropical regions, resulting in a precipitation deficit compared to the late Holocene. Our conceptual model therefore integrates regionally contrasting moisture changes into the Global Monsoon hypothesis. (C) 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.},
  language  = {en}
}
@article{MischkeLaiAichneretal.2017,
  author    = {Mischke, Steffen and Lai, Zhongping and Aichner, Bernhard and Heinecke, Liv and Mahmoudov, Zafar and Kuessner, Marie and Herzschuh, Ulrike},
  title     = {Radiocarbon and optically stimulated luminescence dating of sediments from Lake Karakul, Tajikistan},
  series = {Quaternary geochronology : the international research and review journal on advances in quaternary dating techniques},
  volume    = {41},
  journal   = {Quaternary geochronology : the international research and review journal on advances in quaternary dating techniques},
  publisher = {Elsevier},
  address   = {Oxford},
  issn      = {1871-1014},
  doi       = {10.1016/j.quageo.2017.05.008},
  pages     = {51 -- 61},
  year      = {2017},
  abstract  = {Lake Karakul in the eastern Pamirs is a large and closed-basin lake in a partly glaciated catchment. Two parallel sediment cores were collected from 12 m water depth. The cores were correlated using XRF analysis and dated using radiocarbon and OSL techniques. The age results of the two dating methods are generally in agreement. The correlated composite core of 12.26 m length represents continuous accumulation of sediments in the lake basin since 31 ka. The lake reservoir effect (LRE) remained relatively constant over this period. High sediment accumulation rates (SedARs) were recorded before 23 ka and after 6.5 ka. The relatively close position of the coring location near the eastern shore of the lake implies that high SedARs resulted from low lake levels. Thus, high SedARs and lower lake levels before 23 ka probably reflect cold and dry climate conditions that inhibited the arrival of moist air at high elevation in the eastern Pamirs. Low lake levels after 6.5 ka were probably caused by declining temperatures after the warmer early Holocene, which had caused a reduction in water resources stored as snow, ice and frozen ground in the catchment. Low SedARs during 23-6.5 ka suggest increased lake levels in Lake Karakul. A short-lived increase of SedARs at 15 ka probably corresponds to the rapid melting of glaciers in the Karakul catchment during the Greenland Interstadial le, shortly after glaciers in the catchment had reached their maximum extents. The sediment cores from Lake Karakul represent an important climate archive with robust chronology for the last glacial interglacial cycle from Central Asia. (C) 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.},
  language  = {en}
}
@article{MarquerGaillardSugitaetal.2017,
  author    = {Marquer, Laurent and Gaillard, Marie-Jose and Sugita, Shinya and Poska, Anneli and Trondman, Anna-Kari and Mazier, Florence and Nielsen, Anne Birgitte and Fyfe, Ralph M. and Jonsson, Anna Maria and Smith, Benjamin and Kaplan, Jed O. and Alenius, Teija and Birks, H. John B. and Bjune, Anne E. and Christiansen, Jorg and Dodson, John and Edwards, Kevin J. and Giesecke, Thomas and Herzschuh, Ulrike and Kangur, Mihkel and Koff, Tiiu and Latalowa, Maligorzata and Lechterbeck, Jutta and Olofsson, Jorgen and Seppa, Heikki},
  title     = {Quantifying the effects of land use and climate on Holocene vegetation in Europe},
  series = {Quaternary science reviews : the international multidisciplinary research and review journal},
  volume    = {171},
  journal   = {Quaternary science reviews : the international multidisciplinary research and review journal},
  publisher = {Elsevier},
  address   = {Oxford},
  issn      = {0277-3791},
  doi       = {10.1016/j.quascirev.2017.07.001},
  pages     = {20 -- 37},
  year      = {2017},
  abstract  = {Early agriculture can be detected in palaeovegetation records, but quantification of the relative importance of climate and land use in influencing regional vegetation composition since the onset of agriculture is a topic that is rarely addressed. We present a novel approach that combines pollen-based REVEALS estimates of plant cover with climate, anthropogenic land-cover and dynamic vegetation modelling results. This is used to quantify the relative impacts of land use and climate on Holocene vegetation at a sub-continental scale, i.e. northern and western Europe north of the Alps. We use redundancy analysis and variation partitioning to quantify the percentage of variation in vegetation composition explained by the climate and land-use variables, and Monte Carlo permutation tests to assess the statistical significance of each variable. We further use a similarity index to combine pollen based REVEALS estimates with climate-driven dynamic vegetation modelling results. The overall results indicate that climate is the major driver of vegetation when the Holocene is considered as a whole and at the sub-continental scale, although land use is important regionally. Four critical phases of land-use effects on vegetation are identified. The first phase (from 7000 to 6500 BP) corresponds to the early impacts on vegetation of farming and Neolithic forest clearance and to the dominance of climate as a driver of vegetation change. During the second phase (from 4500 to 4000 BP), land use becomes a major control of vegetation. Climate is still the principal driver, although its influence decreases gradually. The third phase (from 2000 to 1500 BP) is characterised by the continued role of climate on vegetation as a consequence of late-Holocene climate shifts and specific climate events that influence vegetation as well as land use. The last phase (from 500 to 350 BP) shows an acceleration of vegetation changes, in particular during the last century, caused by new farming practices and forestry in response to population growth and industrialization. This is a unique signature of anthropogenic impact within the Holocene but European vegetation remains climatically sensitive and thus may continue to respond to ongoing climate change. (C) 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.},
  language  = {en}
}
@article{RachEngelsKahmenetal.2017,
  author    = {Rach, Oliver and Engels, S. and Kahmen, A. and Brauer, Achim and Martin-Puertas, C. and van Geel, B. and Sachse, Dirk},
  title     = {Hydrological and ecological changes in western Europe between 3200 and 2000 years BP derived from lipid biomarker delta D values in lake Meerfelder Maar sediments},
  series = {Quaternary science reviews : the international multidisciplinary research and review journal},
  volume    = {172},
  journal   = {Quaternary science reviews : the international multidisciplinary research and review journal},
  publisher = {Elsevier},
  address   = {Oxford},
  issn      = {0277-3791},
  doi       = {10.1016/j.quascirev.2017.07.019},
  pages     = {44 -- 54},
  year      = {2017},
  abstract  = {One of the most significant Late Holocene climate shifts occurred around 2800 years ago, when cooler and wetter climate conditions established in western Europe. This shift coincided with an abrupt change in regional atmospheric circulation between 2760 and 2560 cal years BP, which has been linked to a grand solar minimum with the same duration (the Homeric Minimum). We investigated the temporal sequence of hydroclimatic and vegetation changes across this interval of climatic change (Homeric climate oscillation) by using lipid biomarker stable hydrogen isotope ratios (ED values) and pollen assemblages from the annually-laminated sediment record from lake Meerfelder Maar (Germany). Over the investigated interval (3200-2000 varve years BP), terrestrial lipid biomarker ED showed a gradual trend to more negative values, consistent with the western Europe long-term climate trend of the Late Holocene. At ca. 2640 varve years BP we identified a strong increase in aquatic plants and algal remains, indicating a rapid change in the aquatic ecosystem superimposed on this long-term trend. Interestingly, this aquatic ecosystem change was accompanied by large changes in ED values of aquatic lipid biomarkers, such as nC(21) and nC(23) (by between 22 and 30\%(0)). As these variations cannot solely be explained by hydroclimate changes, we suggest that these changes in the Wag value were influenced by changes in n-alkane source organisms. Our results illustrate that if ubiquitous aquatic lipid biomarkers are derived from a limited pool of organisms, changes in lake ecology can be a driving factor for variations on sedimentary lipid MN values, which then could be easily misinterpreted in terms of hydro climatic changes. (C) 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.},
  language  = {en}
}
@article{CaoTianTelfordetal.2017,
  author    = {Cao, Xianyong and Tian, Fang and Telford, Richard J. and Ni, Jian and Xu, Qinghai and Chen, Fahu and Liu, Xingqi and Stebich, Martina and Zhao, Yan and Herzschuh, Ulrike},
  title     = {Impacts of the spatial extent of pollen-climate calibration-set on the absolute values, range and trends of reconstructed Holocene precipitation},
  series = {Quaternary science reviews : the international multidisciplinary research and review journal},
  volume    = {178},
  journal   = {Quaternary science reviews : the international multidisciplinary research and review journal},
  publisher = {Elsevier},
  address   = {Oxford},
  issn      = {0277-3791},
  doi       = {10.1016/j.quascirev.2017.10.030},
  pages     = {37 -- 53},
  year      = {2017},
  abstract  = {Pollen-based quantitative reconstructions of past climate variables is a standard palaeoclimatic approach. Despite knowing that the spatial extent of the calibration-set affects the reconstruction result, guidance is lacking as to how to determine a suitable spatial extent of the pollen-climate calibration-set. In this study, past mean annual precipitation (P-ann) during the Holocene (since 11.5 cal ka BP) is reconstructed repeatedly for pollen records from Qinghai Lake (36.7 degrees N, 100.5 degrees E; north-east Tibetan Plateau), Gonghai Lake (38.9 degrees N, 112.2 degrees E; north China) and Sihailongwan Lake (42.3 degrees N, 126.6 degrees E; north-east China) using calibration-sets of varying spatial extents extracted from the modern pollen dataset of China and Mongolia (2559 sampling sites and 168 pollen taxa in total). Results indicate that the spatial extent of the calibration-set has a strong impact on model performance, analogue quality and reconstruction diagnostics (absolute value, range, trend, optimum). Generally, these effects are stronger with the modern analogue technique (MAT) than with weighted averaging partial least squares (WA-PLS). With respect to fossil spectra from northern China, the spatial extent of calibration-sets should be restricted to radii between ca. 1000 and 1500 km because small-scale calibration-sets (<800 km radius) will likely fail to include enough spatial variation in the modern pollen assemblages to reflect the temporal range shifts during the Holocene, while too broad a scale calibration-set (>1500 km radius) will include taxa with very different pollen-climate relationships. (C) 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.},
  language  = {en}
}
@misc{ScheweLevermann2017,
  author    = {Schewe, Jacob and Levermann, Anders},
  title     = {Non-linear intensification of Sahel rainfall as a possible dynamic response to future warming},
  series = {Postprints der Universit{\"a}t Potsdam : Mathematisch Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe},
  journal   = {Postprints der Universit{\"a}t Potsdam : Mathematisch Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe},
  number    = {630},
  doi       = {10.25932/publishup-41911},
  url       = {http://nbn-resolving.de/urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-419114},
  pages     = {495 -- 505},
  year      = {2017},
  abstract  = {Projections of the response of Sahel rainfall to future global warming diverge significantly. Meanwhile, paleoclimatic records suggest that Sahel rainfall is capable of abrupt transitions in response to gradual forcing. Here we present climate modeling evidence for the possibility of an abrupt intensification of Sahel rainfall under future climate change. Analyzing 30 coupled global climate model simulations, we identify seven models where central Sahel rainfall increases by 40 to 300\% over the 21st century, owing to a northward expansion of the West African monsoon domain. Rainfall in these models is non-linearly related to sea surface temperature (SST) in the tropical Atlantic and Mediterranean moisture source regions, intensifying abruptly beyond a certain SST warming level. We argue that this behavior is consistent with a self-amplifying dynamic-thermodynamical feedback, implying that the gradual increase in oceanic moisture availability under warming could trigger a sudden intensification of monsoon rainfall far inland of today's core monsoon region.},
  language  = {en}
}