@phdthesis{Rikani2023,
  author    = {Rikani, Albano},
  title     = {Modeling global human migration dynamics under climate change},
  doi       = {10.25932/publishup-58321},
  url       = {http://nbn-resolving.de/urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-583212},
  school      = {Universit{\"a}t Potsdam},
  pages     = {x, 133},
  year      = {2023},
  abstract  = {International migration has been an increasing phenomenon during the past decades and has involved all the regions of the globe. Together with fertility and mortality rates, net migration rates represent the components that fully define the demographic evolution of the population in a country. Therefore, being able to capture the patterns of international migration flows and to produce projections of how they might change in the future is of relevant importance for demographic studies and for designing policies informed on the potential scenarios. Existing forecasting methods do not account explicitly for the main drivers and processes shaping international migration flows: existing migrant communities at the destination country, termed diasporas, would reduce the costs of migration and facilitate the settling for new migrants, ultimately producing a positive feedback; accounting for the heterogeneity in the type of migration flows, e.g. return and transit Ćows, becomes critical in some specific bilateral migration channels; in low- to middle- income countries economic development could relax poverty constraint and result in an increase of emigration rates. Economic conditions at both origin and destination are identified as major drivers of international migration. At the same time, climate change impacts have already appeared on natural and human-made systems such as the economic productivity. These economic impacts might have already produced a measurable effect on international migration flows. Studies that provide a quantification of the number of migration moves that might have been affected by climate change are usually specific to small regions, do not provide a mechanistic understanding of the pathway leading from climate change to migration and restrict their focus to the effective induced flows, disregarding the impact that climate change might have had in inhibiting other flows. Global climate change is likely to produce impacts on the economic development of the countries during the next decades too. Understanding how these impacts might alter future global migration patterns is relevant for preparing future societies and understanding whether the response in migration flows would reduce or increase population's exposure to climate change impacts. This doctoral research aims at investigating these questions and fill the research gaps outlined above. First, I have built a global bilateral international migration model which accounts explicitly for the diaspora feedback, distinguishes between transit and return flows, and accounts for the observed non-linear effects that link emigration rates to income levels in the country of origin. I have used this migration model within a population dynamic model where I account also for fertility and mortality rates, producing hindcasts and future projections of international migration flows, covering more than 170 countries. Results show that the model reproduces past patterns and trends well. Future projections highlight the fact that,depending on the assumptions regarding future evolution of income levels and between-country inequality, migration at the end of the century might approach net zero or be still high in many countries. The model, parsimonious in the explanatory variables that includes, represents a versatile tool for assessing the impacts of different socioeconomic scenarios on international migration. I consider then a counterfactual past without climate change impacts on the economic productivity. By prescribing these counterfactual economic conditions to the migration model I produce counterfactual migration flows for the past 30 years. I compare the counterfactual migration flows to factual ones, where historical economic conditions are used to produce migration flows. This provides an estimation of the recent international migration flows attributed to climate change impacts. Results show that a counterfactual world without climate change would have seen less migration globally. This effect becomes larger if I consider separately the increase and decrease in migration moves: a Ągure of net change in the migration flows is not representative of the effective magnitude of the climate change impact on migration. Indeed, in my results climate change produces a divergent effect on richer and poorer countries: by slowing down the economic development, climate change might have reduced international mobility from and to countries of the Global South, and increased it from and to richer countries in the Global North. I apply the same methodology to a scenario of future 3℃ global warming above pre-industrial conditions. I Ąnd that climate change impacts, acting by reorganizing the relative economic attractiveness of destination countries or by affecting the economic growth in the origin, might produce a substantial effect in international migration flows, inhibiting some moves and inducing others. Overall my results suggest that climate change might have had and might have in the future a significant effect on global patterns of international migration. It also emerges clearly that, for a comprehensive understanding of the effects of climate change on international migration, we need to go beyond net effects and consider separately induced and inhibited flows.},
  language  = {en}
}
@phdthesis{Kuhla2022,
  author    = {Kuhla, Kilian},
  title     = {Impact, distribution, and adaptation},
  doi       = {10.25932/publishup-55266},
  url       = {http://nbn-resolving.de/urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-552668},
  school      = {Universit{\"a}t Potsdam},
  pages     = {vii, 309},
  year      = {2022},
  abstract  = {Weather extremes pose a persistent threat to society on multiple layers. Besides an average of ~37,000 deaths per year, climate-related disasters cause destroyed properties and impaired economic activities, eroding people's livelihoods and prosperity. While global temperature rises - caused by anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions - the direct impacts of climatic extreme events increase and will further intensify without proper adaptation measures. Additionally, weather extremes do not only have local direct effects. Resulting economic repercussions can propagate either upstream or downstream along trade chains causing indirect effects. One approach to analyze these indirect effects within the complex global supply network is the agent-based model Acclimate. Using and extending this loss-propagation model, I focus in this thesis on three aspects of the relation between weather extremes and economic repercussions. First, extreme weather events cause direct impacts on local economic performance. I compute daily local direct output loss time series of heat stress, river floods, tropical cyclones, and their consecutive occurrence using (near-future) climate projection ensembles. These regional impacts are estimated based on physical drivers and local productivity distribution. Direct effects of the aforementioned disaster categories are widely heterogeneous concerning regional and temporal distribution. As well, their intensity changes differently under future warming. Focusing on the hurricane-impacted capital, I find that long-term growth losses increase with higher heterogeneity of a shock ensemble. Second, repercussions are sectorally and regionally distributed via economic ripples within the trading network, causing higher-order effects. I use Acclimate to identify three phases of those economic ripples. Furthermore, I compute indirect impacts and analyze overall regional and global production and consumption changes. Regarding heat stress, global consumer losses double while direct output losses increase by a factor 1.5 between 2000 - 2039. In my research I identify the effect of economic ripple resonance and introduce it to climate impact research. This effect occurs if economic ripples of consecutive disasters overlap, which increases economic responses such as an enhancement of consumption losses. These loss enhancements can even be more amplified with increasing direct output losses, e.g. caused by climate crises. Transport disruptions can cause economic repercussions as well. For this, I extend the model Acclimate with a geographical transportation route and expand the decision horizon of economic agents. Using this, I show that policy-induced sudden trade restrictions (e.g. a no-deal Brexit) can significantly reduce the longer-term economic prosperity of affected regions. Analyses of transportation disruptions in typhoon seasons indicate that severely affected regions must reduce production as demand falls during a storm. Substituting suppliers may compensate for fluctuations at the beginning of the storm, which fails for prolonged disruptions. Third, possible coping mechanisms and adaptation strategies arise from direct and indirect economic responses to weather extremes. Analyzing annual trade changes due to typhoon-induced transport disruptions depict that overall exports rise. This trade resilience increases with higher network node diversification. Further, my research shows that a basic insurance scheme may diminish hurricane-induced long-term growth losses due to faster reconstruction in disasters aftermaths. I find that insurance coverage could be an economically reasonable coping scheme towards higher losses caused by the climate crisis. Indirect effects within the global economic network from weather extremes indicate further adaptation possibilities. For one, diversifying linkages reduce the hazard of sharp price increases. Next to this, close economic interconnections with regions that do not share the same extreme weather season can be economically beneficial in the medium run. Furthermore, economic ripple resonance effects should be considered while computing costs. Overall, an increase in local adaptation measures reduces economic ripples within the trade network and possible losses elsewhere. In conclusion, adaptation measures are necessary and potential present, but it seems rather not possible to avoid all direct or indirect losses. As I show in this thesis, dynamical modeling gives valuable insights into how direct and indirect economic impacts arise from different categories of weather extremes. Further, it highlights the importance of resolving individual extremes and reflecting amplifying effects caused by incomplete recovery or consecutive disasters.},
  language  = {en}
}
@phdthesis{Brugger2021,
  author    = {Brugger, Julia},
  title     = {Modeling changes in climate during past mass extinctions},
  doi       = {10.25932/publishup-53246},
  url       = {http://nbn-resolving.de/urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-532468},
  school      = {Universit{\"a}t Potsdam},
  pages     = {V, 217},
  year      = {2021},
  abstract  = {The evolution of life on Earth has been driven by disturbances of different types and magnitudes over the 4.6 million years of Earth's history (Raup, 1994, Alroy, 2008). One example for such disturbances are mass extinctions which are characterized by an exceptional increase in the extinction rate affecting a great number of taxa in a short interval of geologic time (Sepkoski, 1986). During the 541 million years of the Phanerozoic, life on Earth suffered five exceptionally severe mass extinctions named the "Big Five Extinctions". Many mass extinctions are linked to changes in climate (Feulner, 2009). Hence, the study of past mass extinctions is not only intriguing, but can also provide insights into the complex nature of the Earth system. This thesis aims at deepening our understanding of the triggers of mass extinctions and how they affected life. To accomplish this, I investigate changes in climate during two of the Big Five extinctions using a coupled climate model. During the Devonian (419.2-358.9 million years ago) the first vascular plants and vertebrates evolved on land while extinction events occurred in the ocean (Algeo et al., 1995). The causes of these formative changes, their interactions and their links to changes in climate are still poorly understood. Therefore, we explore the sensitivity of the Devonian climate to various boundary conditions using an intermediate-complexity climate model (Brugger et al., 2019). In contrast to Le Hir et al. (2011), we find only a minor biogeophysical effect of changes in vegetation cover due to unrealistically high soil albedo values used in the earlier study. In addition, our results cannot support the strong influence of orbital parameters on the Devonian climate, as simulated with a climate model with a strongly simplified ocean model (De Vleeschouwer et al., 2013, 2014, 2017). We can only reproduce the changes in Devonian climate suggested by proxy data by decreasing atmospheric CO2. Still, finding agreement between the evolution of sea surface temperatures reconstructed from proxy data (Joachimski et al., 2009) and our simulations remains challenging and suggests a lower δ18O ratio of Devonian seawater. Furthermore, our study of the sensitivity of the Devonian climate reveals a prevailing mode of climate variability on a timescale of decades to centuries. The quasi-periodic ocean temperature fluctuations are linked to a physical mechanism of changing sea-ice cover, ocean convection and overturning in high northern latitudes. In the second study of this thesis (Dahl et al., under review) a new reconstruction of atmospheric CO2 for the Devonian, which is based on CO2-sensitive carbon isotope fractionation in the earliest vascular plant fossils, suggests a much earlier drop of atmo- spheric CO2 concentration than previously reconstructed, followed by nearly constant CO2 concentrations during the Middle and Late Devonian. Our simulations for the Early Devonian with identical boundary conditions as in our Devonian sensitivity study (Brugger et al., 2019), but with a low atmospheric CO2 concentration of 500 ppm, show no direct conflict with available proxy and paleobotanical data and confirm that under the simulated climatic conditions carbon isotope fractionation represents a robust proxy for atmospheric CO2. To explain the earlier CO2 drop we suggest that early forms of vascular land plants have already strongly influenced weathering. This new perspective on the Devonian questions previous ideas about the climatic conditions and earlier explanations for the Devonian mass extinctions. The second mass extinction investigated in this thesis is the end-Cretaceous mass extinction (66 million years ago) which differs from the Devonian mass extinctions in terms of the processes involved and the timescale on which the extinctions occurred. In the two studies presented here (Brugger et al., 2017, 2021), we model the climatic effects of the Chicxulub impact, one of the proposed causes of the end-Cretaceous extinction, for the first millennium after the impact. The light-dimming effect of stratospheric sulfate aerosols causes severe cooling, with a decrease of global annual mean surface air temperature of at least 26◦C and a recovery to pre-impact temperatures after more than 30 years. The sudden surface cooling of the ocean induces deep convection which brings nutrients from the deep ocean via upwelling to the surface ocean. Using an ocean biogeochemistry model we explore the combined effect of ocean mixing and iron-rich dust originating from the impactor on the marine biosphere. As soon as light levels have recovered, we find a short, but prominent peak in marine net primary productivity. This newly discovered mechanism could result in toxic effects for marine near-surface ecosystems. Comparison of our model results to proxy data (Vellekoop et al., 2014, 2016, Hull et al., 2020) suggests that carbon release from the terrestrial biosphere is required in addition to the carbon dioxide which can be attributed to the target material. Surface ocean acidification caused by the addition of carbon dioxide and sulfur is only moderate. Taken together, the results indicate a significant contribution of the Chicxulub impact to the end-Cretaceous mass extinction by triggering multiple stressors for the Earth system. Although the sixth extinction we face today is characterized by human intervention in nature, this thesis shows that we can gain many insights into future extinctions from studying past mass extinctions, such as the importance of the rate of change (Rothman, 2017), the interplay of multiple stressors (Gunderson et al., 2016), and changes in the carbon cycle (Rothman, 2017, Tierney et al., 2020).},
  language  = {en}
}
@phdthesis{Wunderling2021,
  author    = {Wunderling, Nico},
  title     = {Nichtlineare Dynamiken und Interaktionen von Kippelementen im Erdsystem},
  doi       = {10.25932/publishup-52514},
  url       = {http://nbn-resolving.de/urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-525140},
  school      = {Universit{\"a}t Potsdam},
  pages     = {ix, 303},
  year      = {2021},
  abstract  = {With ongoing anthropogenic global warming, some of the most vulnerable components of the Earth system might become unstable and undergo a critical transition. These subsystems are the so-called tipping elements. They are believed to exhibit threshold behaviour and would, if triggered, result in severe consequences for the biosphere and human societies. Furthermore, it has been shown that climate tipping elements are not isolated entities, but interact across the entire Earth system. Therefore, this thesis aims at mapping out the potential for tipping events and feedbacks in the Earth system mainly by the use of complex dynamical systems and network science approaches, but partially also by more detailed process-based models of the Earth system. In the first part of this thesis, the theoretical foundations are laid by the investigation of networks of interacting tipping elements. For this purpose, the conditions for the emergence of global cascades are analysed against the structure of paradigmatic network types such as Erd{\"o}s-R{\´e}nyi, Barab{\´a}si-Albert, Watts-Strogatz and explicitly spatially embedded networks. Furthermore, micro-scale structures are detected that are decisive for the transition of local to global cascades. These so-called motifs link the micro- to the macro-scale in the network of tipping elements. Alongside a model description paper, all these results are entered into the Python software package PyCascades, which is publicly available on github. In the second part of this dissertation, the tipping element framework is first applied to components of the Earth system such as the cryosphere and to parts of the biosphere. Afterwards it is applied to a set of interacting climate tipping elements on a global scale. Using the Earth system Model of Intermediate Complexity (EMIC) CLIMBER-2, the temperature feedbacks are quantified, which would arise if some of the large cryosphere elements disintegrate over a long span of time. The cryosphere components that are investigated are the Arctic summer sea ice, the mountain glaciers, the Greenland and the West Antarctic Ice Sheets. The committed temperature increase, in case the ice masses disintegrate, is on the order of an additional half a degree on a global average (0.39-0.46 °C), while local to regional additional temperature increases can exceed 5 °C. This means that, once tipping has begun, additional reinforcing feedbacks are able to increase global warming and with that the risk of further tipping events. This is also the case in the Amazon rainforest, whose parts are dependent on each other via the so-called moisture-recycling feedback. In this thesis, the importance of drought-induced tipping events in the Amazon rainforest is investigated in detail. Despite the Amazon rainforest is assumed to be adapted to past environmental conditions, it is found that tipping events sharply increase if the drought conditions become too intense in a too short amount of time, outpacing the adaptive capacity of the Amazon rainforest. In these cases, the frequency of tipping cascades also increases to 50\% (or above) of all tipping events. In the model that was developed in this study, the southeastern region of the Amazon basin is hit hardest by the simulated drought patterns. This is also the region that already nowadays suffers a lot from extensive human-induced changes due to large-scale deforestation, cattle ranching or infrastructure projects. Moreover, on the larger Earth system wide scale, a network of conceptualised climate tipping elements is constructed in this dissertation making use of a large literature review, expert knowledge and topological properties of the tipping elements. In global warming scenarios, tipping cascades are detected even under modest scenarios of climate change, limiting global warming to 2 °C above pre-industrial levels. In addition, the structural roles of the climate tipping elements in the network are revealed. While the large ice sheets on Greenland and Antarctica are the initiators of tipping cascades, the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) acts as the transmitter of cascades. Furthermore, in our conceptual climate tipping element model, it is found that the ice sheets are of particular importance for the stability of the entire system of investigated climate tipping elements. In the last part of this thesis, the results from the temperature feedback study with the EMIC CLIMBER-2 are combined with the conceptual model of climate tipping elements. There, it is observed that the likelihood of further tipping events slightly increases due to the temperature feedbacks even if no further CO\$_2\$ would be added to the atmosphere. Although the developed network model is of conceptual nature, it is possible with this work for the first time to quantify the risk of tipping events between interacting components of the Earth system under global warming scenarios, by allowing for dynamic temperature feedbacks at the same time.},
  language  = {en}
}
@misc{Steiglechner2018,
  type      = {Master Thesis},
  author    = {Steiglechner, Peter},
  title     = {Estimating global warming from anthropogenic heat emissions},
  doi       = {10.25932/publishup-49886},
  url       = {http://nbn-resolving.de/urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-498866},
  school      = {Universit{\"a}t Potsdam},
  year      = {2018},
  abstract  = {The forcing from the anthropogenic heat flux (AHF), i.e. the dissipation of primary energy consumed by the human civilisation, produces a direct climate warming. Today, the globally averaged AHF is negligibly small compared to the indirect forcing from greenhouse gas emissions. Locally or regionally, though, it has a significant impact. Historical observations show a constant exponential growth of worldwide energy production. A continuation of this trend might be fueled or even amplified by the exploration of new carbon-free energy sources like fusion power. In such a scenario, the impacts of the AHF become a relevant factor for anthropogenic post-greenhouse gas climate change on the global scale, as well. This master thesis aims at estimating the climate impacts of such a growing AHF forcing. In the first part of this work, the AHF is built into simple and conceptual, zero- and one-dimensional Energy Balance Models (EBMs), providing quick order of magnitude estimations of the temperature impact. In the one-dimensional EBM, the ice-albedo feedback from enhanced ice melting due to the AHF increases the temperature impact significantly compared to the zero-dimensional EBM. Additionally, the forcing is built into a climate model of intermediate complexity, CLIMBER-3α. This allows for the investigation of the effect of localised AHF and gives further insights into the impact of the AHF on processes like the ocean heat uptake, sea ice and snow pattern changes and the ocean circulation. The global mean temperature response from the AHF today is of the order of 0.010 - 0.016 K in all reasonable model configurations tested. A transient tenfold increase of this forcing heats up the Earth System additionally by roughly 0.1 - 0.2 K in the presented models. Further growth can also affect the tipping probability of certain climate elements. Most renewable energy sources do not or only partially contribute to the AHF forcing as the energy from these sources dissipates anyway. Hence, the transition to a (carbon-free) renewable energy mix, which, in particular, does not rely on nuclear power, eliminates the local and global climate impacts from the increasing AHF forcing, independent of the growth of energy production.},
  language  = {en}
}
@phdthesis{Bittermann2015,
  author    = {Bittermann, Klaus},
  title     = {Semi-empirical sea-level modelling},
  url       = {http://nbn-resolving.de/urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-93881},
  school      = {Universit{\"a}t Potsdam},
  pages     = {v, 88},
  year      = {2015},
  abstract  = {Semi-empirical sea-level models (SEMs) exploit physically motivated empirical relationships between global sea level and certain drivers, in the following global mean temperature. This model class evolved as a supplement to process-based models (Rahmstorf (2007)) which were unable to fully represent all relevant processes. They thus failed to capture past sea-level change (Rahmstorf et al. (2012)) and were thought likely to underestimate future sea-level rise. Semi-empirical models were found to be a fast and useful tool for exploring the uncertainties in future sea-level rise, consistently giving significantly higher projections than process-based models. In the following different aspects of semi-empirical sea-level modelling have been studied. Models were first validated using various data sets of global sea level and temperature. SEMs were then used on the glacier contribution to sea level, and to infer past global temperature from sea-level data via inverse modelling. Periods studied encompass the instrumental period, covered by tide gauges (starting 1700 CE (Common Era) in Amsterdam) and satellites (first launched in 1992 CE), the era from 1000 BCE (before CE) to present, and the full length of the Holocene (using proxy data). Accordingly different data, model formulations and implementations have been used. It could be shown in Bittermann et al. (2013) that SEMs correctly predict 20th century sea-level when calibrated with data until 1900 CE. SEMs also turned out to give better predictions than the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) 4th assessment report (AR4, IPCC (2007)) models, for the period from 1961-2003 CE. With the first multi-proxy reconstruction of global sea-level as input, estimate of the human-induced component of modern sea-level change and projections of future sea-level rise were calculated (Kopp et al. (2016)). It turned out with 90\% confidence that more than 40 \% of the observed 20th century sea-level rise is indeed anthropogenic. With the new semi-empirical and IPCC (2013) 5th assessment report (AR5) projections the gap between SEM and process-based model projections closes, giving higher credibility to both. Combining all scenarios, from strong mitigation to business as usual, a global sea-level rise of 28-131 cm relative to 2000 CE, is projected with 90\% confidence. The decision for a low carbon pathway could halve the expected global sea-level rise by 2100 CE. Present day temperature and thus sea level are driven by the globally acting greenhouse-gas forcing. Unlike that, the Milankovich forcing, acting on Holocene timescales, results mainly in a northern-hemisphere temperature change. Therefore a semi-empirical model can be driven with northernhemisphere temperatures, which makes it possible to model the main subcomponent of sea-level change over this period. It showed that an additional positive constant rate of the order of the estimated Antarctic sea-level contribution is then required to explain the sea-level evolution over the Holocene. Thus the global sea level, following the climatic optimum, can be interpreted as the sum of a temperature induced sea-level drop and a positive long-term contribution, likely an ongoing response to deglaciation coming from Antarctica.},
  language  = {en}
}
@phdthesis{Robinson2011,
  author    = {Robinson, Alexander},
  title     = {Modeling the Greenland Ice Sheet response to climate change in the past and future},
  url       = {http://nbn-resolving.de/urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus-50430},
  school      = {Universit{\"a}t Potsdam},
  year      = {2011},
  abstract  = {The Greenland Ice Sheet (GIS) contains enough water volume to raise global sea level by over 7 meters. It is a relic of past glacial climates that could be strongly affected by a warming world. Several studies have been performed to investigate the sensitivity of the ice sheet to changes in climate, but large uncertainties in its long-term response still exist. In this thesis, a new approach has been developed and applied to modeling the GIS response to climate change. The advantages compared to previous approaches are (i) that it can be applied over a wide range of climatic scenarios (both in the deep past and the future), (ii) that it includes the relevant feedback processes between the climate and the ice sheet and (iii) that it is highly computationally efficient, allowing simulations over very long timescales. The new regional energy-moisture balance model (REMBO) has been developed to model the climate and surface mass balance over Greenland and it represents an improvement compared to conventional approaches in modeling present-day conditions. Furthermore, the evolution of the GIS has been simulated over the last glacial cycle using an ensemble of model versions. The model performance has been validated against field observations of the present-day climate and surface mass balance, as well as paleo information from ice cores. The GIS contribution to sea level rise during the last interglacial is estimated to be between 0.5-4.1 m, consistent with previous estimates. The ensemble of model versions has been constrained to those that are consistent with the data, and a range of valid parameter values has been defined, allowing quantification of the uncertainty and sensitivity of the modeling approach. Using the constrained model ensemble, the sensitivity of the GIS to long-term climate change was investigated. It was found that the GIS exhibits hysteresis behavior (i.e., it is multi-stable under certain conditions), and that a temperature threshold exists above which the ice sheet transitions to an essentially ice-free state. The threshold in the global temperature is estimated to be in the range of 1.3-2.3°C above preindustrial conditions, significantly lower than previously believed. The timescale of total melt scales non-linearly with the overshoot above the temperature threshold, such that a 2°C anomaly causes the ice sheet to melt in ca. 50,000 years, but an anomaly of 6°C will melt the ice sheet in less than 4,000 years. The meltback of the ice sheet was found to become irreversible after a fraction of the ice sheet is already lost - but this level of irreversibility also depends on the temperature anomaly.},
  language  = {en}
}