@misc{MetinDungSchroeteretal.2018, author = {Metin, Ayse Duha and Dung, Nguyen Viet and Schr{\"o}ter, Kai and Guse, Bj{\"o}rn and Apel, Heiko and Kreibich, Heidi and Vorogushyn, Sergiy and Merz, Bruno}, title = {How do changes along the risk chain affect flood risk?}, series = {Postprints der Universit{\"a}t Potsdam : Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe}, journal = {Postprints der Universit{\"a}t Potsdam : Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe}, number = {1067}, issn = {1866-8372}, doi = {10.25932/publishup-46879}, url = {http://nbn-resolving.de/urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-468790}, pages = {22}, year = {2018}, abstract = {Flood risk is impacted by a range of physical and socio-economic processes. Hence, the quantification of flood risk ideally considers the complete flood risk chain, from atmospheric processes through catchment and river system processes to damage mechanisms in the affected areas. Although it is generally accepted that a multitude of changes along the risk chain can occur and impact flood risk, there is a lack of knowledge of how and to what extent changes in influencing factors propagate through the chain and finally affect flood risk. To fill this gap, we present a comprehensive sensitivity analysis which considers changes in all risk components, i.e. changes in climate, catchment, river system, land use, assets, and vulnerability. The application of this framework to the mesoscale Mulde catchment in Germany shows that flood risk can vary dramatically as a consequence of plausible change scenarios. It further reveals that components that have not received much attention, such as changes in dike systems or in vulnerability, may outweigh changes in often investigated components, such as climate. Although the specific results are conditional on the case study area and the selected assumptions, they emphasize the need for a broader consideration of potential drivers of change in a comprehensive way. Hence, our approach contributes to a better understanding of how the different risk components influence the overall flood risk.}, language = {en} } @article{JapMartinezFerreiroBastiaanse2016, author = {Jap, Bernard A. and Martinez-Ferreiro, Silvia and Bastiaanse, Roelien}, title = {The effect of syntactic frequency on sentence comprehension in standard}, series = {Aphasiology : an international, interdisciplinary journal}, volume = {30}, journal = {Aphasiology : an international, interdisciplinary journal}, publisher = {Institute of Mathematical Statistics}, address = {Abingdon}, issn = {0268-7038}, doi = {10.1080/02687038.2016.1148902}, pages = {1325 -- 1340}, year = {2016}, abstract = {Background: Comprehension of reversible sentences that have derived word order has often been reported as impaired in agrammatic aphasia. Most accounts of this phenomenon refer to the syntactic differences between derived and base word order of the arguments. However, it has been demonstrated that in agrammatic spontaneous speech in standard Indonesian (SI) passives are produced at a rate that is proportional to that of healthy speakers. The main difference between passives in SI and in other languages is the frequency with which passives are used: passives in SI are highly frequent. The high frequency can be explained by the fact that passives are used for politeness reasons, saliency of the passive morphology, earlier acquisition, and formal simplicity of the passive structure. Aims: The purpose of the current study is to investigate comprehension of the passive as a derived structure in SI and the influence of frequency. Methods \& Procedures: A sentence-to-picture matching task was developed to test four reversible sentence types (active, passive, subject cleft and object cleft). There are three variables that are of interest, that is, word order, embedding and relative frequency of structures. Eleven agrammatic speakers classified as suffering from Broca's aphasia were tested. Outcomes \& Results: The passive sentences were comprehended equally well as the active sentences. Embedding had limited effects: subject clefts were understood as well as actives and passives. Object clefts, however, were understood poorly and significantly worse than the three other sentence types. Conclusions: The sentence comprehension deficit pattern shown in SI individuals with Broca's aphasia introduces frequency of a syntactic structure as an additional factor to consider. Whether frequency or pragmatic constraints protects against erosion of the passive in Broca's aphasia in SI remains an open question.}, language = {en} } @phdthesis{Veh2019, author = {Veh, Georg}, title = {Outburst floods from moraine-dammed lakes in the Himalayas}, doi = {10.25932/publishup-43607}, url = {http://nbn-resolving.de/urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-436071}, school = {Universit{\"a}t Potsdam}, pages = {124}, year = {2019}, abstract = {The Himalayas are a region that is most dependent, but also frequently prone to hazards from changing meltwater resources. This mountain belt hosts the highest mountain peaks on earth, has the largest reserve of ice outside the polar regions, and is home to a rapidly growing population in recent decades. One source of hazard has attracted scientific research in particular in the past two decades: glacial lake outburst floods (GLOFs) occurred rarely, but mostly with fatal and catastrophic consequences for downstream communities and infrastructure. Such GLOFs can suddenly release several million cubic meters of water from naturally impounded meltwater lakes. Glacial lakes have grown in number and size by ongoing glacial mass losses in the Himalayas. Theory holds that enhanced meltwater production may increase GLOF frequency, but has never been tested so far. The key challenge to test this notion are the high altitudes of >4000 m, at which lakes occur, making field work impractical. Moreover, flood waves can attenuate rapidly in mountain channels downstream, so that many GLOFs have likely gone unnoticed in past decades. Our knowledge on GLOFs is hence likely biased towards larger, destructive cases, which challenges a detailed quantification of their frequency and their response to atmospheric warming. Robustly quantifying the magnitude and frequency of GLOFs is essential for risk assessment and management along mountain rivers, not least to implement their return periods in building design codes. Motivated by this limited knowledge of GLOF frequency and hazard, I developed an algorithm that efficiently detects GLOFs from satellite images. In essence, this algorithm classifies land cover in 30 years (~1988-2017) of continuously recorded Landsat images over the Himalayas, and calculates likelihoods for rapidly shrinking water bodies in the stack of land cover images. I visually assessed such detected tell-tale sites for sediment fans in the river channel downstream, a second key diagnostic of GLOFs. Rigorous tests and validation with known cases from roughly 10\% of the Himalayas suggested that this algorithm is robust against frequent image noise, and hence capable to identify previously unknown GLOFs. Extending the search radius to the entire Himalayan mountain range revealed some 22 newly detected GLOFs. I thus more than doubled the existing GLOF count from 16 previously known cases since 1988, and found a dominant cluster of GLOFs in the Central and Eastern Himalayas (Bhutan and Eastern Nepal), compared to the rarer affected ranges in the North. Yet, the total of 38 GLOFs showed no change in the annual frequency, so that the activity of GLOFs per unit glacial lake area has decreased in the past 30 years. I discussed possible drivers for this finding, but left a further attribution to distinct GLOF-triggering mechanisms open to future research. This updated GLOF frequency was the key input for assessing GLOF hazard for the entire Himalayan mountain belt and several subregions. I used standard definitions in flood hydrology, describing hazard as the annual exceedance probability of a given flood peak discharge [m3 s-1] or larger at the breach location. I coupled the empirical frequency of GLOFs per region to simulations of physically plausible peak discharges from all existing ~5,000 lakes in the Himalayas. Using an extreme-value model, I could hence calculate flood return periods. I found that the contemporary 100-year GLOF discharge (the flood level that is reached or exceeded on average once in 100 years) is 20,600+2,200/-2,300 m3 s-1 for the entire Himalayas. Given the spatial and temporal distribution of historic GLOFs, contemporary GLOF hazard is highest in the Eastern Himalayas, and lower for regions with rarer GLOF abundance. I also calculated GLOF hazard for some 9,500 overdeepenings, which could expose and fill with water, if all Himalayan glaciers have melted eventually. Assuming that the current GLOF rate remains unchanged, the 100-year GLOF discharge could double (41,700+5,500/-4,700 m3 s-1), while the regional GLOF hazard may increase largest in the Karakoram. To conclude, these three stages-from GLOF detection, to analysing their frequency and estimating regional GLOF hazard-provide a framework for modern GLOF hazard assessment. Given the rapidly growing population, infrastructure, and hydropower projects in the Himalayas, this thesis assists in quantifying the purely climate-driven contribution to hazard and risk from GLOFs.}, language = {en} } @misc{JoussetReinschRybergetal.2018, author = {Jousset, Philippe and Reinsch, Thomas and Ryberg, Trond and Blanck, Hanna and Clarke, Andy and Aghayev, Rufat and Hersir, Gylfi P. and Henninges, Jan and Weber, Michael and Krawczyk, Charlotte M.}, title = {Dynamic strain determination using fibre-optic cables allows imaging of seismological and structural features}, series = {Postprints der Universit{\"a}t Potsdam Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe}, journal = {Postprints der Universit{\"a}t Potsdam Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe}, number = {691}, doi = {10.25932/publishup-42677}, url = {http://nbn-resolving.de/urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-426770}, pages = {11}, year = {2018}, abstract = {Natural hazard prediction and efficient crust exploration require dense seismic observations both in time and space. Seismological techniques provide ground-motion data, whose accuracy depends on sensor characteristics and spatial distribution. Here we demonstrate that dynamic strain determination is possible with conventional fibre-optic cables deployed for telecommunication. Extending recently distributed acoustic sensing (DAS) studies, we present high resolution spatially un-aliased broadband strain data. We recorded seismic signals from natural and man-made sources with 4-m spacing along a 15-km-long fibre-optic cable layout on Reykjanes Peninsula, SW-Iceland. We identify with unprecedented resolution structural features such as normal faults and volcanic dykes in the Reykjanes Oblique Rift, allowing us to infer new dynamic fault processes. Conventional seismometer recordings, acquired simultaneously, validate the spectral amplitude DAS response between 0.1 and 100 Hz bandwidth. We suggest that the networks of fibre-optic telecommunication lines worldwide could be used as seismometers opening a new window for Earth hazard assessment and exploration.}, language = {en} } @misc{BubeckAertsdeMoeletal.2016, author = {Bubeck, Philip and Aerts, Jeroen C. J. H. and de Moel, Hans and Kreibich, Heidi}, title = {Preface}, series = {Postprints der Universit{\"a}t Potsdam : Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe}, journal = {Postprints der Universit{\"a}t Potsdam : Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe}, number = {609}, issn = {1866-8372}, doi = {10.25932/publishup-41238}, url = {http://nbn-resolving.de/urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-412387}, pages = {6}, year = {2016}, abstract = {kein abstract}, language = {en} } @phdthesis{Ott2012, author = {Ott, Susan}, title = {Feld - f{\"a}llt - fehlt : Untersuchungen zur Phonologie-Morphosyntax-Schnittstelle bei Kindern und Erwachsenen}, publisher = {Universit{\"a}tsverlag Potsdam}, address = {Potsdam}, isbn = {978-3-86956-161-5}, url = {http://nbn-resolving.de/urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus-57798}, school = {Universit{\"a}t Potsdam}, pages = {379}, year = {2012}, abstract = {Neben der Frequenz eines cues ist es dessen Zuverl{\"a}ssigkeit, die Kindern hilft, die an sie gerichtete Sprache zu segmentieren, Worteinheiten zu erkennen sowie diese syntaktisch zu kategorisieren. Im Deutschen weist die Subsilbe „Langvokal+Konsonant+/t/" (z.B. in fehlt, wohnt) zuverl{\"a}ssig auf eine -t-flektierte Verbform hin. Die in kindgerichteter Sprache h{\"o}her frequente Subsilbe „Kurzvokal+Konsonant+/t/" (z.B. in Feld, Hemd, f{\"a}llt, rund) gibt hingegen keinen derartig eindeutigen Hinweis. Es wurde der Frage nachgegangen, inwiefern diese unterschiedlichen Zuverl{\"a}ssigkeiten und Frequenzen der Subsilben auf die Nomen-, Verb- und Verbflexionsverarbeitung einwirken. Drei Altersgruppen wurden untersucht: achtzehn Monate alte Kinder, drei- bis f{\"u}nfj{\"a}hrige sprachunauff{\"a}llige und -auff{\"a}llige Kinder sowie erwachsene Sprecher. Einfl{\"u}sse der unterschiedlichen Zuverl{\"a}ssigkeiten und Frequenzen der ausgew{\"a}hlten Subsilben konnten f{\"u}r alle Probandengruppen gefunden werden. Die Subsilbe stellt damit eine linguistische Gr{\"o}ße dar, die in der fr{\"u}hen Sprachwahrnehmung als cue dienen sowie die Sprachverarbeitung Erwachsener lenken kann und auch f{\"u}r die Sprachdiagnostik und -therapie sprachauff{\"a}lliger Kinder ber{\"u}cksichtigt werden sollte.}, language = {de} } @book{Dambacher2010, author = {Dambacher, Michael}, title = {Bottom-up and top-down processes in reading : influences of frequency and predictability on event-related potentials and eye movements}, publisher = {Universit{\"a}tsverlag Potsdam}, address = {Potsdam}, isbn = {978-3-86956-059-5}, url = {http://nbn-resolving.de/urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus-42024}, publisher = {Universit{\"a}t Potsdam}, pages = {239}, year = {2010}, abstract = {In reading, word frequency is commonly regarded as the major bottom-up determinant for the speed of lexical access. Moreover, language processing depends on top-down information, such as the predictability of a word from a previous context. Yet, however, the exact role of top-down predictions in visual word recognition is poorly understood: They may rapidly affect lexical processes, or alternatively, influence only late post-lexical stages. To add evidence about the nature of top-down processes and their relation to bottom-up information in the timeline of word recognition, we examined influences of frequency and predictability on event-related potentials (ERPs) in several sentence reading studies. The results were related to eye movements from natural reading as well as to models of word recognition. As a first and major finding, interactions of frequency and predictability on ERP amplitudes consistently revealed top-down influences on lexical levels of word processing (Chapters 2 and 4). Second, frequency and predictability mediated relations between N400 amplitudes and fixation durations, pointing to their sensitivity to a common stage of word recognition; further, larger N400 amplitudes entailed longer fixation durations on the next word, a result providing evidence for ongoing processing beyond a fixation (Chapter 3). Third, influences of presentation rate on ERP frequency and predictability effects demonstrated that the time available for word processing critically co-determines the course of bottom-up and top-down influences (Chapter 4). Fourth, at a near-normal reading speed, an early predictability effect suggested the rapid comparison of top-down hypotheses with the actual visual input (Chapter 5). The present results are compatible with interactive models of word recognition assuming that early lexical processes depend on the concerted impact of bottom-up and top-down information. We offered a framework that reconciles the findings on a timeline of word recognition taking into account influences of frequency, predictability, and presentation rate (Chapter 4).}, language = {en} } @misc{BaerHenney2009, type = {Master Thesis}, author = {Baer-Henney, Dinah}, title = {On natural and probabilisic effects during acquisition of morphophonemic alternations}, url = {http://nbn-resolving.de/urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus-36819}, school = {Universit{\"a}t Potsdam}, year = {2009}, abstract = {The acquisition of phonological alternations consists of many aspects as discussions in the relevant literature show. There are contrary findings about the role of naturalness. A natural process is grounded in phonetics; they are easy to learn, even in second language acquisition when adults have to learn certain processes that do not occur in their native language. There is also evidence that unnatural - arbitrary - rules can be learned. Current work on the acquisition of morphophonemic alternations suggests that their probability of occurrence is a crucial factor in acquisition. I have conducted an experiment to investigate the effects of naturalness as well as of probability of occurrence with 80 adult native speakers of German. It uses the Artificial Grammar paradigm: Two artificial languages were constructed, each with a particular alternation. In one language the alternation is natural (vowel harmony); in the other language the alternation is arbitrary (a vowel alternation depends on the sonorancy of the first consonant of the stem). The participants were divided in two groups, one group listened to the natural alternation and the other group listened to the unnatural alternation. Each group was divided into two subgroups. One subgroup then was presented with material in which the alternation occurred frequently and the other subgroup was presented with material in which the alternation occurred infrequently. After this exposure phase every participant was asked to produce new words during the test phase. Knowledge about the language-specific alternation pattern was needed to produce the forms correctly as the phonological contexts demanded certain alternants. The group performances have been compared with respect to the effects of naturalness and probability of occurrence. The natural rule was learned more easily than the unnatural one. Frequently presented rules were not learned more easily than the ones that were presented less frequently. Moreover, participants did not learn the unnatural rule at all, whether this rule was presented frequently or infrequently did not matter. There was a tendency that the natural rule was learned more easily if presented frequently than if presented infrequently, but it was not significant due to variability across participants.}, language = {en} }