@misc{WenzLevermannWillneretal.2020, author = {Wenz, Leonie and Levermann, Anders and Willner, Sven N. and Otto, Christian and Kuhla, Kilian}, title = {Post-Brexit no-trade-deal scenario: short-term consumer benefit at the expense of long-term economic development}, series = {Postprints der Universit{\"a}t Potsdam : Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe}, journal = {Postprints der Universit{\"a}t Potsdam : Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe}, number = {9}, issn = {1866-8372}, doi = {10.25932/publishup-52581}, url = {http://nbn-resolving.de/urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-525819}, pages = {16}, year = {2020}, abstract = {After the United Kingdom has left the European Union it remains unclear whether the two parties can successfully negotiate and sign a trade agreement within the transition period. Ongoing negotiations, practical obstacles and resulting uncertainties make it highly unlikely that economic actors would be fully prepared to a "no-trade-deal" situation. Here we provide an economic shock simulation of the immediate aftermath of such a post-Brexit no-trade-deal scenario by computing the time evolution of more than 1.8 million interactions between more than 6,600 economic actors in the global trade network. We find an abrupt decline in the number of goods produced in the UK and the EU. This sudden output reduction is caused by drops in demand as customers on the respective other side of the Channel incorporate the new trade restriction into their decision-making. As a response, producers reduce prices in order to stimulate demand elsewhere. In the short term consumers benefit from lower prices but production value decreases with potentially severe socio-economic consequences in the longer term.}, language = {en} } @misc{BreedveldFolkertsmaEccard2019, author = {Breedveld, Merel Cathelijne and Folkertsma, Remco and Eccard, Jana}, title = {Rodent mothers increase vigilance behaviour when facing infanticide risk}, series = {Postprints der Universit{\"a}t Potsdam Mathematisch- Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe}, journal = {Postprints der Universit{\"a}t Potsdam Mathematisch- Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe}, number = {766}, issn = {1866-8372}, doi = {10.25932/publishup-43807}, url = {http://nbn-resolving.de/urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-438074}, pages = {12}, year = {2019}, abstract = {Infanticide, the killing of unrelated young, is widespread and frequently driven by sexual conflict. especially in mammals with exclusive maternal care, infanticide by males is common and females suffer fitness costs. Recognizing infanticide risk and adjusting offspring protection accordingly should therefore be adaptive in female mammals. Using a small mammal (Myodes glareolus) in outdoor enclosures, we investigated whether lactating mothers adjust offspring protection, and potential mate search behaviour, in response to different infanticide risk levels. We presented the scent of the litter's sire or of a stranger male near the female's nest, and observed female nest presence and movement by radiotracking. While both scents simulated a mating opportunity, they represented lower (sire) and higher (stranger) infanticide risk. compared to the sire treatment, females in the stranger treatment left their nest more often, showed increased activity and stayed closer to the nest, suggesting offspring protection from outside the nest through elevated alertness and vigilance. females with larger litters spent more time investigating scents and used more space in the sire but not in the stranger treatment. Thus, current investment size affected odour inspection and resource acquisition under higher risk. Adjusting nest protection and resource acquisition to infanticide risk could allow mothers to elicit appropriate (fitness-saving) counterstrategies, and thus, may be widespread.}, language = {en} } @misc{BoettleRybskiKropp2016, author = {Boettle, Markus and Rybski, Diego and Kropp, J{\"u}rgen}, title = {Quantifying the effect of sea level rise and flood defence}, series = {Postprints der Universit{\"a}t Potsdam : Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe}, journal = {Postprints der Universit{\"a}t Potsdam : Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe}, number = {559}, issn = {1866-8372}, doi = {10.25932/publishup-41240}, url = {http://nbn-resolving.de/urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-412405}, pages = {18}, year = {2016}, abstract = {In contrast to recent advances in projecting sea levels, estimations about the economic impact of sea level rise are vague. Nonetheless, they are of great importance for policy making with regard to adaptation and greenhouse-gas mitigation. Since the damage is mainly caused by extreme events, we propose a stochastic framework to estimate the monetary losses from coastal floods in a confined region. For this purpose, we follow a Peak-over-Threshold approach employing a Poisson point process and the Generalised Pareto Distribution. By considering the effect of sea level rise as well as potential adaptation scenarios on the involved parameters, we are able to study the development of the annual damage. An application to the city of Copenhagen shows that a doubling of losses can be expected from a mean sea level increase of only 11 cm. In general, we find that for varying parameters the expected losses can be well approximated by one of three analytical expressions depending on the extreme value parameters. These findings reveal the complex interplay of the involved parameters and allow conclusions of fundamental relevance. For instance, we show that the damage typically increases faster than the sea level rise itself. This in turn can be of great importance for the assessment of sea level rise impacts on the global scale. Our results are accompanied by an assessment of uncertainty, which reflects the stochastic nature of extreme events. While the absolute value of uncertainty about the flood damage increases with rising mean sea levels, we find that it decreases in relation to the expected damage.}, language = {en} }