@phdthesis{Shevtsova2022,
  author    = {Shevtsova, Iuliia},
  title     = {Recent and future vegetation change in the treeline region of Chukotka (NE Russia) inferred from field data, satellite data and modelling},
  doi       = {10.25932/publishup-54845},
  url       = {http://nbn-resolving.de/urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-548452},
  school      = {Universit{\"a}t Potsdam},
  pages     = {149},
  year      = {2022},
  abstract  = {Vegetation change at high latitudes is one of the central issues nowadays with respect to ongoing climate changes and triggered potential feedback. At high latitude ecosystems, the expected changes include boreal treeline advance, compositional, phenological, physiological (plants), biomass (phytomass) and productivity changes. However, the rate and the extent of the changes under climate change are yet poorly understood and projections are necessary for effective adaptive strategies and forehanded minimisation of the possible negative feedbacks. The vegetation itself and environmental conditions, which are playing a great role in its development and distribution are diverse throughout the Subarctic to the Arctic. Among the least investigated areas is central Chukotka in North-Eastern Siberia, Russia. Chukotka has mountainous terrain and a wide variety of vegetation types on the gradient from treeless tundra to northern taiga forests. The treeline there in contrast to subarctic North America and north-western and central Siberia is represented by a deciduous conifer, Larix cajanderi Mayr. The vegetation varies from prostrate lichen Dryas octopetala L. tundra to open graminoid (hummock and non-hummock) tundra to tall Pinus pumila (Pall.) Regel shrublands to sparse and dense larch forests. Hence, this thesis presents investigations on recent compositional and above-ground biomass (AGB) changes, as well as potential future changes in AGB in central Chukotka. The aim is to assess how tundra-taiga vegetation develops under changing climate conditions particularly in Fareast Russia, central Chukotka. Therefore, three main research questions were considered: 1) What changes in vegetation composition have recently occurred in central Chukotka? 2) How have the above-ground biomass AGB rates and distribution changed in central Chukotka? 3) What are the spatial dynamics and rates of tree AGB change in the upcoming millennia in the northern tundra-taiga of central Chukotka? Remote sensing provides information on the spatial and temporal variability of vegetation. I used Landsat satellite data together with field data (foliage projective cover and AGB) from two expeditions in 2016 and 2018 to Chukotka to upscale vegetation types and AGB for the study area. More specifically, I used Landsat spectral indices (Normalised Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI), Normalised Difference Water Index (NDWI) and Normalised Difference Snow Index (NDSI)) and constrained ordination (Redundancy analysis, RDA) for further k-means-based land-cover classification and general additive model (GAM)-based AGB maps for 2000/2001/2002 and 2016/2017. I also used Tandem-X DEM data for a topographical correction of the Landsat satellite data and to derive slope, aspect, and Topographical Wetness Index (TWI) data for forecasting AGB. Firstly, in 2016, taxa-specific projective cover data were collected during a Russian-German expedition. I processed the field data and coupled them with Landsat spectral Indices in the RDA model that was used for k-means classification. I could establish four meaningful land-cover classes: (1) larch closed-canopy forest, (2) forest tundra and shrub tundra, (3) graminoid tundra and (4) prostrate herb tundra and barren areas, and accordingly, I produced the land cover maps for 2000/2001/2002 and 2016/20017. Changes in land-cover classes between the beginning of the century (2000/2001/2002) and the present time (2016/2017) were estimated and interpreted as recent compositional changes in central Chukotka. The transition from graminoid tundra to forest tundra and shrub tundra was interpreted as shrubification and amounts to a 20\% area increase in the tundra-taiga zone and 40\% area increase in the northern taiga. Major contributors of shrubification are alder, dwarf birch and some species of the heather family. Land-cover change from the forest tundra and shrub tundra class to the larch closed-canopy forest class is interpreted as tree infilling and is notable in the northern taiga. We find almost no land-cover changes in the present treeless tundra. Secondly, total AGB state and change were investigated for the same areas. In addition to the total vegetation AGB, I provided estimations for the different taxa present at the field sites. As an outcome, AGB in the study region of central Chukotka ranged from 0 kg m-2 at barren areas to 16 kg m-2 in closed-canopy forests with the larch trees contributing the highest. A comparison of changes in AGB within the investigated period from 2000 to 2016 shows that the greatest changes (up to 1.25 kg m 2 yr 1) occurred in the northern taiga and in areas where land cover changed to larch closed-canopy forest. Our estimations indicate a general increase in total AGB throughout the investigated tundra-taiga and northern taiga, whereas the tundra showed no evidence of change in AGB within the 15 years from 2002 to 2017. In the third manuscript, potential future AGB changes were estimated based on the results of simulations of the individual-based spatially explicit vegetation model LAVESI using different climate scenarios, depending on Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) RCP 2.6, RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 with or without cooling after 2300 CE. LAVESI-based AGB was simulated for the current state until 3000 CE for the northern tundra-taiga study area for larch species because we expect the most notable changes to occur will be associated with forest expansion in the treeline ecotone. The spatial distribution and current state of tree AGB was validated against AGB field data, AGB extracted from Landsat satellite data and a high spatial resolution image with distinctive trees visible. The simulation results are indicating differences in tree AGB dynamics plot wise, depending on the distance to the current treeline. The simulated tree AGB dynamics are in concordance with fundamental ecological (emigrational and successional) processes: tree stand formation in simulated results starts with seed dispersion, tree stand establishment, tree stand densification and episodic thinning. Our results suggest mostly densification of existing tree stands in the study region within the current century in the study region and a lagged forest expansion (up to 39\% of total area in the RCP 8.5) under all considered climate scenarios without cooling in different local areas depending on the closeness to the current treeline. In scenarios with cooling air temperature after 2300 CE, forests stopped expanding at 2300 CE (up to 10\%, RCP 8.5) and then gradually retreated to their pre-21st century position. The average tree AGB rates of increase are the strongest in the first 300 years of the 21st century. The rates depend on the RCP scenario, where the highest are as expected under RCP 8.5. Overall, this interdisciplinary thesis shows a successful integration of field data, satellite data and modelling for tracking recent and predicting future vegetation changes in mountainous subarctic regions. The obtained results are unique for the focus area in central Chukotka and overall, for mountainous high latitude ecosystems.},
  language  = {en}
}
@article{GuentherSchmidtQuittetal.2021,
  author    = {G{\"u}nther, Kerstin and Schmidt, Marcus and Quitt, Heinz and Heinken, Thilo},
  title     = {Ver{\"a}nderungen der Waldvegetation im Elbe-Havelwinkel von 1960 bis 2015},
  series = {Tuexenia : Mitteilungen der Floristisch-Soziologischen Arbeitsgemeinschaft},
  journal   = {Tuexenia : Mitteilungen der Floristisch-Soziologischen Arbeitsgemeinschaft},
  number    = {41},
  publisher = {Floristisch-Soziologische Arbeitsgemeinschaft},
  address   = {G{\"o}ttingen},
  issn      = {0722-494X},
  doi       = {10.14471/2021.41.005},
  pages     = {53 -- 85},
  year      = {2021},
  abstract  = {Forest ecosystems are subject to a variety of influences such as forest management, nitrogen deposition, changes in the groundwater level or the immigration of invasive species. The repetition of historical releves is an important means of documenting the resulting changes in plant communities and determining their main drivers. In 2015, we examined the vegetation change in 140 semi-permanent plots in managed forests in the Elbe valley in the NE German lowlands (Saxony-Anhalt, Brandenburg). The first survey took place from 1956 to 1963. The releves cover an almost uniquely broad spectrum of different site conditions, ranging from wet forests (alluvial, swamp and bog forests of Alnion incanae, Alnion glutinosae and Betulion pubescentis) to acidic mixed oak forests (Quercion roboris) up to acidic, mostly dry pine forests with different nutrient status (Dicrano-Pinion). We analyzed the changes in the vegetation with the help of forest stand data, winner and loser species, alpha- and beta-diversity as well as the Ellenberg indicator values for nitrogen, reaction, moisture and light. In contrast to previous resurvey studies, areas were also taken into account on which a complete change of forest stand had taken place before the second survey. Particularly in the wet forests and acidic forests with a moderately good nutrient supply, changes in the main tree species have been recorded, and many pine stands have been newly established in the meantime. The species richness has decreased overall and in almost all forest types, but the beta-diversity has remained unchanged or has increased. The Ellenberg values indicate a decrease in soil moisture in the wet forests, while the acidic pine forests in particular have become darker, richer in nutrients and more humid. The number of loser species is more than twice as high as that of the winner species, but with different developments in the individual forest types. In particular, the wet forests, the acidic mixed oak forests and the lichen-pine forests have lost most of their characteristic species. The resurvey after more than 50 years shows a different development of the individual forest types. Vegetation changes in the wet forests are mainly due to local groundwater level drawdown and the resulting increased availability of nutrients. The alluvial forests were also strongly influenced by forest interventions. The reasons for the trend towards more humid and more nutrient-rich conditions in formerly dry acidic pine and oak forests are nitrogen depositions and a succession after the abandonment of historical forms of forest use (litter raking, forest pasture). Although the individual forest types have developed differently, eutrophication, falling groundwater levels and silviculture are the most important causes for the changes in vegetation. Silvicultural interventions such as clear cutting and stand conversion with a change of tree species are at the same time the main reason why the vegetation has not been homogenized despite the leveling of the site gradient as measured by the beta-diversity.},
  language  = {de}
}
@article{EngelsBrauerBuddelmeijeretal.2016,
  author    = {Engels, Stefan and Brauer, Achim and Buddelmeijer, Nico and Martin-Puertas, Celia and Rach, Oliver and Sachse, Dirk and Van Geel, Bas},
  title     = {Subdecadal-scale vegetation responses to a previously unknown late-Allerod climate fluctuation and Younger Dryas cooling at Lake Meerfelder Maar (Germany)},
  series = {Journal of quaternary science},
  volume    = {31},
  journal   = {Journal of quaternary science},
  publisher = {Wiley-Blackwell},
  address   = {Hoboken},
  issn      = {0267-8179},
  doi       = {10.1002/jqs.2900},
  pages     = {741 -- 752},
  year      = {2016},
  abstract  = {Lake Meerfelder Maar (MFM) is the northernmost Western European sediment record with annual laminations across the Younger Dryas (YD), and the onset of the YD in the record of MFM has previously been defined as an increase in non-arboreal pollen abundance at ca. 12 680 varve a BP. Here we present a palynological record at unprecedented subdecadal resolution for MFM, covering the Allerod-YD transition. Our results show a fluctuation in pollen accumulation rates (PARs) before the onset of the YD, with lower rates between ca. 12 725 and 12 685 varve a BP. The fluctuation in PARs occurs simultaneous with a previously undescribed short fluctuation in sediment composition and varve thickness, as well as with changes in biogeochemical proxies. The combined evidence indicates signs of climatic instability ca. 45 years before the onset of the YD. The PAR records of Betula and Pinus furthermore show earlier and more abrupt changes at the onset of the YD than the percentage-records do. Finally, heliophilous herbaceous taxa show a delayed increase following the onset of the YD of ca. 145 years. This paper illustrates the potential to identify previously unrecognized climate variability and vegetation change when using subdecadal-resolution analyses. Copyright (C) 2016 John Wiley \& Sons, Ltd.},
  language  = {en}
}
@article{DittmannHeinkenSchmidt2018,
  author    = {Dittmann, Thea and Heinken, Thilo and Schmidt, Marcus},
  title     = {Die W{\"a}lder von Magdeburgerforth (Fl{\"a}ming, Sachsen-Anhalt)},
  series = {Tuexenia : Mitteilungen der Floristisch-Soziologischen Arbeitsgemeinschaft},
  journal   = {Tuexenia : Mitteilungen der Floristisch-Soziologischen Arbeitsgemeinschaft},
  number    = {38},
  publisher = {Floristisch-Soziologische Arbeitsgemeinschaft},
  address   = {G{\"o}ttingen},
  issn      = {0722-494X},
  doi       = {10.14471/2018.38.009},
  pages     = {11 -- 42},
  year      = {2018},
  abstract  = {In einem rund 2.200 ha großen Waldgebiet bei Magdeburgerforth (Fl{\"a}ming, Sachsen-Anhalt) wurden 1948 bis 1950 von Harro Passarge 120 Vegetationsaufnahmen sowie eine Vegetationskartierung erstellt. Das Gebiet zeichnet sich durch eine große Vielfalt an Waldtypen aus den Verb{\"a}nden Agrostio-Quercion petraeae, Alnion glutinosae, Alnion incanae, Carpinion betuli, Dicrano-Pinion und Quercion roboris aus. Daher und weil viele der heute in W{\"a}ldern wirksamen Prozesse (z. B. Stickstoffeintrag, Klimawandel) vor 60 Jahren noch nicht sp{\"u}rbar waren, bietet sich das Gebiet f{\"u}r eine Wiederholungsuntersuchung besonders an. Da die Aufnahmefl{\"a}chen von Passarge nicht punktgenau verortet waren, wurden im Jahr 2014 in einem {\"u}ber die Forstabteilungen und die Vegetationskarte definierten Suchraum immer die der Erstaufnahme {\"a}hnlichsten Waldbest{\"a}nde erfasst. Insgesamt konnten 97 (81 \%) der Aufnahmen wiederholt werden. Vegetationsver{\"a}nderungen werden mithilfe einer NMDS-Ordination, der Gegen{\"u}berstellung von α -Diversit{\"a}t, Zeigerwerten und Waldbindungskategorien f{\"u}r die beiden Aufnahmezeitpunkte sowie {\"u}ber die Identifikation von Gewinner- und Verlierer-Arten analysiert. Auch wenn methodenbedingt bei der Wiederholungsuntersuchung nur die jeweils geringstm{\"o}gliche Vegetationsver{\"a}nderung abgebildet wird, konnten Ergebnisse erzielt werden, die mit denen quasi permanenter Plots {\"u}bereinstimmen. Die beobachteten allgemeinen Trends (Eutrophierung, Sukzession nach Nutzungswandel, Verlust lichtliebender und magerkeitszeigender Arten, Ausbreitung von stickstoffliebenden Arten und mesophilen Waldarten, Einwanderung von Neophyten, keine generelle Abnahme der Artenzahl) stimmen gut mit den in zahlreichen Studien aus mitteleurop{\"a}ischen W{\"a}ldern festgestellten {\"u}berein. Durch das von nassen bis trockenen sowie von bodensauer-n{\"a}hrstoffarmen bis zu relativ basenreichen B{\"o}den reichende Standortsspektrum innerhalb des Untersuchungsgebietes konnte aber - deutlicher als in den meisten bisherigen Fallstudien - gezeigt werden, dass sich die Resilienz der W{\"a}lder gegen{\"u}ber Vegetationsver{\"a}nderung je nach Ausgangsgesellschaft stark unterscheidet und jeweils unterschiedliche Treiber wirksam sind. Stellario-Carpinetum und Luzulo-Quercetum erwiesen sich als relativ stabil, und auch in den Feuchtw{\"a}ldern des Circaeo-Alnetum gab es trotz eines Artenwechsels wenig Hinweise auf Umweltver{\"a}nderungen. Dagegen wiesen die W{\"a}lder n{\"a}hrstoffarmer Standorte (Sphagno-Alnetum, Betulo-Quercetum, Dicrano-Pinion) viele Verliererarten und eine starke Eutrophierungstendenz auf. Die in besonderem Maße von historischen Waldnutzungsformen abh{\"a}ngigen thermophilen W{\"a}lder und die Flechten-Kiefernw{\"a}lder gingen weitgehend verloren.},
  language  = {de}
}
@misc{DittmannHeinkenSchmidt2018,
  author    = {Dittmann, Thea and Heinken, Thilo and Schmidt, Marcus},
  title     = {Die W{\"a}lder von Magdeburgerforth (Fl{\"a}ming, Sachsen-Anhalt)},
  series = {Postprints der Universit{\"a}t Potsdam : Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe},
  journal   = {Postprints der Universit{\"a}t Potsdam : Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe},
  number    = {1053},
  issn      = {1866-8372},
  doi       = {10.25932/publishup-46005},
  url       = {http://nbn-resolving.de/urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-460058},
  pages     = {11 -- 42},
  year      = {2018},
  abstract  = {In einem rund 2.200 ha großen Waldgebiet bei Magdeburgerforth (Fl{\"a}ming, Sachsen-Anhalt) wur-den 1948 bis 1950 von Harro Passarge 120 Vegetationsaufnahmen sowie eine Vegetationskartierung erstellt. Das Gebiet zeichnet sich durch eine große Vielfalt an Waldtypen aus den Verb{\"a}nden Agrostio-Quercion petraeae, Alnion glutinosae, Alnion incanae, Carpinion betuli, Dicrano-Pinion und Quercion roboris aus. Daher und weil viele der heute in W{\"a}ldern wirksamen Prozesse (z. B. Stickstoffeintrag, Klimawandel) vor 60 Jahren noch nicht sp{\"u}rbar waren, bietet sich das Gebiet f{\"u}r eine Wiederholungs-untersuchung besonders an. Da die Aufnahmefl{\"a}chen von Passarge nicht punktgenau verortet waren, wurden im Jahr 2014 in einem {\"u}ber die Forstabteilungen und die Vegetationskarte definierten Such-raum immer die der Erstaufnahme {\"a}hnlichsten Waldbest{\"a}nde erfasst. Insgesamt konnten 97 (81 \%) der Aufnahmen wiederholt werden. Vegetationsver{\"a}nderungen werden mithilfe einer NMDS-Ordination, der Gegen{\"u}berstellung von α-Diversit{\"a}t, Zeigerwerten und Waldbindungskategorien f{\"u}r die beiden Aufnahmezeitpunkte sowie {\"u}ber die Identifikation von Gewinner- und Verlierer-Arten analysiert.Auch wenn methodenbedingt bei der Wiederholungsuntersuchung nur die jeweils geringstm{\"o}gliche Vegetationsver{\"a}nderung abgebildet wird, konnten Ergebnisse erzielt werden, die mit denen quasi-permanenter Plots {\"u}bereinstimmen. Die beobachteten allgemeinen Trends (Eutrophierung, Sukzession nach Nutzungswandel, Verlust lichtliebender und magerkeitszeigender Arten, Ausbreitung von stick-stoffliebenden Arten und mesophilen Waldarten, Einwanderung von Neophyten, keine generelle Ab-nahme der Artenzahl) stimmen gut mit den in zahlreichen Studien aus mitteleurop{\"a}ischen W{\"a}ldern festgestellten {\"u}berein. Durch das von nassen bis trockenen sowie von bodensauer-n{\"a}hrstoffarmen bis zu relativ basenreichen B{\"o}den reichende Standortsspektrum innerhalb des Untersuchungsgebietes konnte aber - deutlicher als in den meisten bisherigen Fallstudien - gezeigt werden, dass sich die Resilienz der W{\"a}lder gegen{\"u}ber Vegetationsver{\"a}nderung je nach Ausgangsgesellschaft stark unterscheidet und jeweils unterschiedliche Treiber wirksam sind. Stellario-Carpinetum und Luzulo-Quercetum erwiesen sich als relativ stabil, und auch in den Feuchtw{\"a}ldern des Circaeo-Alnetum gab es trotz eines Arten-wechsels wenig Hinweise auf Umweltver{\"a}nderungen. Dagegen wiesen die W{\"a}lder n{\"a}hrstoffarmer Standorte (Sphagno-Alnetum, Betulo-Quercetum, Dicrano-Pinion) viele Verliererarten und eine starke Eutrophierungstendenz auf. Die in besonderem Maße von historischen Waldnutzungsformen abh{\"a}ngi-gen thermophilen W{\"a}lder und die Flechten-Kiefernw{\"a}lder gingen weitgehend verloren.},
  language  = {de}
}