@article{TotzPetriLehmannetal.2018, author = {Totz, Sonja Juliana and Petri, Stefan and Lehmann, Jascha and Coumou, Dim}, title = {Regional Changes in the Mean Position and Variability of the Tropical Edge}, series = {Geophysical research letters}, volume = {45}, journal = {Geophysical research letters}, number = {21}, publisher = {American Geophysical Union}, address = {Washington}, issn = {0094-8276}, doi = {10.1029/2018GL079911}, pages = {12076 -- 12084}, year = {2018}, abstract = {Recent studies indicate that the tropical belt has been expanding during recent decades, which can significantly influence precipitation in subtropical climates. Often the location of the tropical border is identified using the Hadley cell edge (HCE) or the subtropical jet stream (STJ), but most studies concentrated on the zonal-mean state, thereby missing regional impacts. Here we detect longitudinal-resolved trends in STJ cores and HCEs over 1979-2016 in both hemispheres at a higher spatial and temporal resolution than previous studies. Besides pronounced regional trend differences in both sign and magnitude, we show that winter HCE and STJ variability increased in the Mediterranean region and decreased over the American and Asian continents. Rainfall variability in these regions changed likewise, and most of those changes can be explained by changes in HCE/STJ variability. This highlights the importance of understanding future tropical belt changes both regionally and in terms of variability. Plain Language Summary We applied a new network-based method to detect motion of the tropical climate border with longitudinal resolution. Depending on the longitudinal position, there are differences in both direction and magnitude of the border motion. In addition, we demonstrate that the rainfall variability is increasing in the Mediterranean region and decreasing over the American and Asian continents, which can be explained by the variability of the tropical belt location.}, language = {en} } @article{TotzPetriLehmannetal.2019, author = {Totz, Sonja Juliana and Petri, Stefan and Lehmann, Jascha and Peukert, Erik and Coumou, Dim}, title = {Exploring the sensitivity of Northern Hemisphere atmospheric circulation to different surface temperature forcing using a statistical-dynamical atmospheric model}, series = {Nonlinear processes in geophysics}, volume = {26}, journal = {Nonlinear processes in geophysics}, number = {1}, publisher = {Copernicus}, address = {G{\"o}ttingen}, issn = {1023-5809}, doi = {10.5194/npg-26-1-2019}, pages = {1 -- 12}, year = {2019}, abstract = {Climate and weather conditions in the mid-latitudes are strongly driven by the large-scale atmosphere circulation. Observational data indicate that important components of the large-scale circulation have changed in recent decades, including the strength and the width of the Hadley cell, jets, storm tracks and planetary waves. Here, we use a new statistical-dynamical atmosphere model (SDAM) to test the individual sensitivities of the large-scale atmospheric circulation to changes in the zonal temperature gradient, meridional temperature gradient and global-mean temperature. We analyze the Northern Hemisphere Hadley circulation, jet streams, storm tracks and planetary waves by systematically altering the zonal temperature asymmetry, the meridional temperature gradient and the global-mean temperature. Our results show that the strength of the Hadley cell, storm tracks and jet streams depend, in terms of relative changes, almost linearly on both the global-mean temperature and the meridional temperature gradient, whereas the zonal temperature asymmetry has little or no influence. The magnitude of planetary waves is affected by all three temperature components, as expected from theoretical dynamical considerations. The width of the Hadley cell behaves nonlinearly with respect to all three temperature components in the SDAM. Moreover, some of these observed large-scale atmospheric changes are expected from dynamical equations and are therefore an important part of model validation.}, language = {en} } @article{CoumouLehmannBeckmann2015, author = {Coumou, Dim and Lehmann, Jascha and Beckmann, Johanna}, title = {The weakening summer circulation in the Northern Hemisphere mid-latitudes}, series = {Science}, volume = {348}, journal = {Science}, number = {6232}, publisher = {American Assoc. for the Advancement of Science}, address = {Washington}, issn = {0036-8075}, doi = {10.1126/science.1261768}, pages = {324 -- 327}, year = {2015}, abstract = {Rapid warming in the Arctic could influence mid-latitude circulation by reducing the poleward temperature gradient. The largest changes are generally expected in autumn or winter, but whether significant changes have occurred is debated. Here we report significant weakening of summer circulation detected in three key dynamical quantities: (i) the zonal-mean zonal wind, (ii) the eddy kinetic energy (EKE), and (iii) the amplitude of fast-moving Rossby waves. Weakening of the zonal wind is explained by a reduction in the poleward temperature gradient. Changes in Rossby waves and EKE are consistent with regression analyses of climate model projections and changes over the seasonal cycle. Monthly heat extremes are associated with low EKE, and thus the observed weakening might have contributed to more persistent heat waves in recent summers.}, language = {en} } @misc{LehmannCoumouFrieler2015, author = {Lehmann, Jascha and Coumou, Dim and Frieler, Katja}, title = {Increased record-breaking precipitation events under global warming (vol 132, pg 501, 2015)}, series = {Climatic change : an interdisciplinary, intern. journal devoted to the description, causes and implications of climatic change}, volume = {132}, journal = {Climatic change : an interdisciplinary, intern. journal devoted to the description, causes and implications of climatic change}, number = {4}, publisher = {Springer}, address = {Dordrecht}, issn = {0165-0009}, doi = {10.1007/s10584-015-1466-3}, pages = {517 -- 518}, year = {2015}, language = {en} } @article{LehmannCoumouFrieler2015, author = {Lehmann, Jascha and Coumou, Dim and Frieler, Katja}, title = {Increased record-breaking precipitation events under global warming}, series = {Climatic change : an interdisciplinary, intern. journal devoted to the description, causes and implications of climatic change}, volume = {132}, journal = {Climatic change : an interdisciplinary, intern. journal devoted to the description, causes and implications of climatic change}, number = {4}, publisher = {Springer}, address = {Dordrecht}, issn = {0165-0009}, doi = {10.1007/s10584-015-1434-y}, pages = {501 -- 515}, year = {2015}, abstract = {In the last decade record-breaking rainfall events have occurred in many places around the world causing severe impacts to human society and the environment including agricultural losses and floodings. There is now medium confidence that human-induced greenhouse gases have contributed to changes in heavy precipitation events at the global scale. Here, we present the first analysis of record-breaking daily rainfall events using observational data. We show that over the last three decades the number of record-breaking events has significantly increased in the global mean. Globally, this increase has led to 12 \% more record-breaking rainfall events over 1981-2010 compared to those expected in stationary time series. The number of record-breaking rainfall events peaked in 2010 with an estimated 26 \% chance that a new rainfall record is due to long-term climate change. This increase in record-breaking rainfall is explained by a statistical model which accounts for the warming of air and associated increasing water holding capacity only. Our results suggest that whilst the number of rainfall record-breaking events can be related to natural multi-decadal variability over the period from 1901 to 1980, observed record-breaking rainfall events significantly increased afterwards consistent with rising temperatures.}, language = {en} } @article{LehmannCoumou2015, author = {Lehmann, Jascha and Coumou, Dim}, title = {The influence of mid-latitude storm tracks on hot, cold, dry and wet extremes}, series = {Scientific reports}, volume = {5}, journal = {Scientific reports}, publisher = {Nature Publ. Group}, address = {London}, issn = {2045-2322}, doi = {10.1038/srep17491}, pages = {9}, year = {2015}, abstract = {Changes in mid-latitude circulation can strongly affect the number and intensity of extreme weather events. In particular, high-amplitude quasi-stationary planetary waves have been linked to prolonged weather extremes at the surface. In contrast, analyses of fast-traveling synoptic-scale waves and their direct influence on heat and cold extremes are scarce though changes in such waves have been detected and are projected for the 21st century. Here we apply regression analyses of synoptic activity with surface temperature and precipitation in monthly gridded observational data. We show that over large parts of mid-latitude continental regions, summer heat extremes are associated with low storm track activity. In winter, the occurrence of cold spells is related to low storm track activity over parts of eastern North America, Europe, and central-to eastern Asia. Storm tracks thus have a moderating effect on continental temperatures. Pronounced storm track activity favors monthly rainfall extremes throughout the year, whereas dry spells are associated with a lack thereof. Trend analyses reveal significant regional changes in recent decades favoring the occurrence of cold spells in the eastern US, droughts in California and heat extremes over Eurasia.}, language = {en} } @article{LehmannCoumouFrieleretal.2014, author = {Lehmann, Jascha and Coumou, Dim and Frieler, Katja and Eliseev, Alexey V. and Levermann, Anders}, title = {Future changes in extratropical storm tracks and baroclinicity under climate change}, series = {Environmental research letters}, volume = {9}, journal = {Environmental research letters}, number = {8}, publisher = {IOP Publ. Ltd.}, address = {Bristol}, issn = {1748-9326}, doi = {10.1088/1748-9326/9/8/084002}, pages = {8}, year = {2014}, abstract = {The weather in Eurasia, Australia, and North and South America is largely controlled by the strength and position of extratropical storm tracks. Future climate change will likely affect these storm tracks and the associated transport of energy, momentum, and water vapour. Many recent studies have analyzed how storm tracks will change under climate change, and how these changes are related to atmospheric dynamics. However, there are still discrepancies between different studies on how storm tracks will change under future climate scenarios. Here, we show that under global warming the CMIP5 ensemble of coupled climate models projects only little relative changes in vertically averaged mid-latitude mean storm track activity during the northern winter, but agree in projecting a substantial decrease during summer. Seasonal changes in the Southern Hemisphere show the opposite behaviour, with an intensification in winter and no change during summer. These distinct seasonal changes in northern summer and southern winter storm tracks lead to an amplified seasonal cycle in a future climate. Similar changes are seen in the mid-latitude mean Eady growth rate maximum, a measure that combines changes in vertical shear and static stability based on baroclinic instability theory. Regression analysis between changes in the storm tracks and changes in the maximum Eady growth rate reveal that most models agree in a positive association between the two quantities over mid-latitude regions.}, language = {en} }