@article{MiddelanisWillnerOttoetal.2021, author = {Middelanis, Robin and Willner, Sven N. and Otto, Christian and Kuhla, Kilian and Quante, Lennart and Levermann, Anders}, title = {Wave-like global economic ripple response to Hurricane Sandy}, series = {Environmental research letters : ERL / Institute of Physics}, volume = {16}, journal = {Environmental research letters : ERL / Institute of Physics}, number = {12}, publisher = {IOP Publ. Ltd.}, address = {Bristol}, issn = {1748-9326}, doi = {10.1088/1748-9326/ac39c0}, pages = {11}, year = {2021}, abstract = {Tropical cyclones range among the costliest disasters on Earth. Their economic repercussions along the supply and trade network also affect remote economies that are not directly affected. We here simulate possible global repercussions on consumption for the example case of Hurricane Sandy in the US (2012) using the shock-propagation model Acclimate. The modeled shock yields a global three-phase ripple: an initial production demand reduction and associated consumption price decrease, followed by a supply shortage with increasing prices, and finally a recovery phase. Regions with strong trade relations to the US experience strong magnitudes of the ripple. A dominating demand reduction or supply shortage leads to overall consumption gains or losses of a region, respectively. While finding these repercussions in historic data is challenging due to strong volatility of economic interactions, numerical models like ours can help to identify them by approaching the problem from an exploratory angle, isolating the effect of interest. For this, our model simulates the economic interactions of over 7000 regional economic sectors, interlinked through about 1.8 million trade relations. Under global warming, the wave-like structures of the economic response to major hurricanes like the one simulated here are likely to intensify and potentially overlap with other weather extremes.}, language = {en} } @article{FrielerSchaubergerArnethetal.2017, author = {Frieler, Katja and Schauberger, Bernhard and Arneth, Almut and Balkovic, Juraj and Chryssanthacopoulos, James and Deryng, Delphine and Elliott, Joshua and Folberth, Christian and Khabarov, Nikolay and M{\"u}ller, Christoph and Olin, Stefan and Pugh, Thomas A. M. and Schaphoff, Sibyll and Schewe, Jacob and Schmid, Erwin and Warszawski, Lila and Levermann, Anders}, title = {Understanding the weather signal in national crop-yield variability}, series = {Earths future}, volume = {5}, journal = {Earths future}, publisher = {Wiley}, address = {Hoboken}, issn = {2328-4277}, doi = {10.1002/2016EF000525}, pages = {605 -- 616}, year = {2017}, abstract = {Year-to-year variations in crop yields can have major impacts on the livelihoods of subsistence farmers and may trigger significant global price fluctuations, with severe consequences for people in developing countries. Fluctuations can be induced by weather conditions, management decisions, weeds, diseases, and pests. Although an explicit quantification and deeper understanding of weather-induced crop-yield variability is essential for adaptation strategies, so far it has only been addressed by empirical models. Here, we provide conservative estimates of the fraction of reported national yield variabilities that can be attributed to weather by state-of-the-art, process-based crop model simulations. We find that observed weather variations can explain more than 50\% of the variability in wheat yields in Australia, Canada, Spain, Hungary, and Romania. For maize, weather sensitivities exceed 50\% in seven countries, including the United States. The explained variance exceeds 50\% for rice in Japan and South Korea and for soy in Argentina. Avoiding water stress by simulating yields assuming full irrigation shows that water limitation is a major driver of the observed variations in most of these countries. Identifying the mechanisms leading to crop-yield fluctuations is not only fundamental for dampening fluctuations, but is also important in the context of the debate on the attribution of loss and damage to climate change. Since process-based crop models not only account for weather influences on crop yields, but also provide options to represent human-management measures, they could become essential tools for differentiating these drivers, and for exploring options to reduce future yield fluctuations.}, language = {en} } @article{GoelzerLevermannRahmstorf2009, author = {Goelzer, Heiko and Levermann, Anders and Rahmstorf, Stefan}, title = {Two-way coupling of an ENSO model to the global climate model CLIMBER-3 alpha}, issn = {1463-5003}, doi = {10.1016/j.ocemod.2009.03.004}, year = {2009}, abstract = {We present a model study that investigates to what extent it is possible to introduce ENSO variability to an Earth system Model of Intermediate Complexity (EMIC). The Zebiak-Cane ENSO model is dynamically coupled to the EMIC CLIMBER-3 alpha, which by itself exhibits no interannual or multidecadal variability. ENSO variability is introduced to CLIMBER-3 alpha by adding ENSO-related sea surface temperature anomalies to the upper layers of the model ocean. For the other coupling direction, changes in the mean CLIMBER-3 alpha climate on decadal time scales are used to change the background state of the ENSO model, achieving a two-way coupling. We compare typical ENSO-related patterns of a fully coupled pre-industrial model run to reanalysis data and point out the possibilities and limitations of this model configuration. Although introduced ENSO-related SST anomalies and other related variables like the Southern Oscillation Index are well reproduced by the EMIC in the forcing domain, teleconnections to other regions are damped, especially in meridional direction. The reason for this limitation is the atmospheric model, which does not sufficiently resolve the necessary transport mechanisms. Despite this limitation the presented coupling method may still be a useful tool in combination with higher resolution atmospheric models as being in development for the successor model CLIMBER-3 and possibly other EMICs.}, language = {en} } @article{SchleussnerRungeLehmannetal.2014, author = {Schleussner, Carl-Friedrich and Runge, Jakob and Lehmann, Jasvcha and Levermann, Anders}, title = {The role of the North Atlantic overturning and deep ocean for multi-decadal global-mean-temperature variability}, series = {Earth system dynamics}, volume = {5}, journal = {Earth system dynamics}, number = {1}, publisher = {Copernicus}, address = {G{\"o}ttingen}, issn = {2190-4979}, doi = {10.5194/esd-5-103-2014}, pages = {103 -- 115}, year = {2014}, language = {en} } @article{ReeseLevermannAlbrechtetal.2020, author = {Reese, Ronja and Levermann, Anders and Albrecht, Torsten and Seroussi, Helene and Winkelmann, Ricarda}, title = {The role of history and strength of the oceanic forcing in sea level projections from Antarctica with the Parallel Ice Sheet Model}, series = {The Cryosphere : TC ; an interactive open access journal of the European Geosciences Union}, volume = {14}, journal = {The Cryosphere : TC ; an interactive open access journal of the European Geosciences Union}, number = {9}, publisher = {Copernicus}, address = {G{\"o}ttingen}, issn = {1994-0416}, doi = {10.5194/tc-14-3097-2020}, pages = {3097 -- 3110}, year = {2020}, abstract = {Mass loss from the Antarctic Ice Sheet constitutes the largest uncertainty in projections of future sea level rise. Ocean-driven melting underneath the floating ice shelves and subsequent acceleration of the inland ice streams are the major reasons for currently observed mass loss from Antarctica and are expected to become more important in the future. Here we show that for projections of future mass loss from the Antarctic Ice Sheet, it is essential (1) to better constrain the sensitivity of sub-shelf melt rates to ocean warming and (2) to include the historic trajectory of the ice sheet. In particular, we find that while the ice sheet response in simulations using the Parallel Ice Sheet Model is comparable to the median response of models in three Antarctic Ice Sheet Intercomparison projects - initMIP, LARMIP-2 and ISMIP6 - conducted with a range of ice sheet models, the projected 21st century sea level contribution differs significantly depending on these two factors. For the highest emission scenario RCP8.5, this leads to projected ice loss ranging from 1:4 to 4:0 cm of sea level equivalent in simulations in which ISMIP6 ocean forcing drives the PICO ocean box model where parameter tuning leads to a comparably low sub-shelf melt sensitivity and in which no surface forcing is applied. This is opposed to a likely range of 9:1 to 35:8 cm using the exact same initial setup, but emulated from the LARMIP-2 experiments with a higher melt sensitivity, even though both projects use forcing from climate models and melt rates are calibrated with previous oceanographic studies. Furthermore, using two initial states, one with a previous historic simulation from 1850 to 2014 and one starting from a steady state, we show that while differences between the ice sheet configurations in 2015 seem marginal at first sight, the historic simulation increases the susceptibility of the ice sheet to ocean warming, thereby increasing mass loss from 2015 to 2100 by 5\% to 50 \%. Hindcasting past ice sheet changes with numerical models would thus provide valuable tools to better constrain projections. Our results emphasize that the uncertainty that arises from the forcing is of the same order of magnitude as the ice dynamic response for future sea level projections.}, language = {en} } @article{MartinWinkelmannHaseloffetal.2011, author = {Martin, Maria A. and Winkelmann, Ricarda and Haseloff, M. and Albrecht, Tanja and Bueler, Ed and Khroulev, C. and Levermann, Anders}, title = {The Potsdam parallel ice sheet model (PISM-PIK) - Part 2: Dynamic equilibrium simulation of the Antarctic ice sheet}, series = {The Cryosphere : TC ; an interactive open access journal of the European Geosciences Union}, volume = {5}, journal = {The Cryosphere : TC ; an interactive open access journal of the European Geosciences Union}, number = {3}, publisher = {Copernicus}, address = {G{\"o}ttingen}, issn = {1994-0416}, doi = {10.5194/tc-5-727-2011}, pages = {727 -- 740}, year = {2011}, abstract = {We present a dynamic equilibrium simulation of the ice sheet-shelf system on Antarctica with the Potsdam Parallel Ice Sheet Model (PISM-PIK). The simulation is initialized with present-day conditions for bed topography and ice thickness and then run to steady state with constant present-day surface mass balance. Surface temperature and sub-shelf basal melt distribution are parameterized. Grounding lines and calving fronts are free to evolve, and their modeled equilibrium state is compared to observational data. A physically-motivated calving law based on horizontal spreading rates allows for realistic calving fronts for various types of shelves. Steady-state dynamics including surface velocity and ice flux are analyzed for whole Antarctica and the Ronne-Filchner and Ross ice shelf areas in particular. The results show that the different flow regimes in sheet and shelves, and the transition zone between them, are captured reasonably well, supporting the approach of superposition of SIA and SSA for the representation of fast motion of grounded ice. This approach also leads to a natural emergence of sliding-dominated flow in stream-like features in this new 3-D marine ice sheet model.}, language = {en} } @article{WinkelmannMartinHaseloffetal.2011, author = {Winkelmann, Ricarda and Martin, Maria A. and Haseloff, Monika and Albrecht, Torsten and Bueler, Ed and Khroulev, C. and Levermann, Anders}, title = {The Potsdam parallel ice sheet model (PISM-PIK) - Part 1: Model description}, series = {The Cryosphere : TC ; an interactive open access journal of the European Geosciences Union}, volume = {5}, journal = {The Cryosphere : TC ; an interactive open access journal of the European Geosciences Union}, number = {3}, publisher = {Copernicus}, address = {G{\"o}ttingen}, issn = {1994-0416}, doi = {10.5194/tc-5-715-2011}, pages = {715 -- 726}, year = {2011}, abstract = {We present the Potsdam Parallel Ice Sheet Model (PISM-PIK), developed at the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research to be used for simulations of large-scale ice sheet-shelf systems. It is derived from the Parallel Ice Sheet Model (Bueler and Brown, 2009). Velocities are calculated by superposition of two shallow stress balance approximations within the entire ice covered region: the shallow ice approximation (SIA) is dominant in grounded regions and accounts for shear deformation parallel to the geoid. The plug-flow type shallow shelf approximation (SSA) dominates the velocity field in ice shelf regions and serves as a basal sliding velocity in grounded regions. Ice streams can be identified diagnostically as regions with a significant contribution of membrane stresses to the local momentum balance. All lateral boundaries in PISM-PIK are free to evolve, including the grounding line and ice fronts. Ice shelf margins in particular are modeled using Neumann boundary conditions for the SSA equations, reflecting a hydrostatic stress imbalance along the vertical calving face. The ice front position is modeled using a subgrid-scale representation of calving front motion (Albrecht et al., 2011) and a physically-motivated calving law based on horizontal spreading rates. The model is tested in experiments from the Marine Ice Sheet Model Intercomparison Project (MISMIP). A dynamic equilibrium simulation of Antarctica under present-day conditions is presented in Martin et al. (2011).}, language = {en} } @article{LevermannClarkMarzeionetal.2013, author = {Levermann, Anders and Clark, Peter U. and Marzeion, Ben and Milne, Glenn A. and Pollard, David and Radic, Valentina and Robinson, Alexander}, title = {The multimillennial sea-level commitment of global warming}, series = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America}, volume = {110}, journal = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America}, number = {34}, publisher = {National Acad. of Sciences}, address = {Washington}, issn = {0027-8424}, doi = {10.1073/pnas.1219414110}, pages = {13745 -- 13750}, year = {2013}, abstract = {Global mean sea level has been steadily rising over the last century, is projected to increase by the end of this century, and will continue to rise beyond the year 2100 unless the current global mean temperature trend is reversed. Inertia in the climate and global carbon system, however, causes the global mean temperature to decline slowly even after greenhouse gas emissions have ceased, raising the question of how much sea-level commitment is expected for different levels of global mean temperature increase above preindustrial levels. Although sea-level rise over the last century has been dominated by ocean warming and loss of glaciers, the sensitivity suggested from records of past sea levels indicates important contributions should also be expected from the Greenland and Antarctic Ice Sheets. Uncertainties in the paleo-reconstructions, however, necessitate additional strategies to better constrain the sea-level commitment. Here we combine paleo-evidence with simulations from physical models to estimate the future sea-level commitment on a multimillennial time scale and compute associated regional sea-level patterns. Oceanic thermal expansion and the Antarctic Ice Sheet contribute quasi-linearly, with 0.4 m degrees C-1 and 1.2 m degrees C-1 of warming, respectively. The saturation of the contribution from glaciers is overcompensated by the nonlinear response of the Greenland Ice Sheet. As a consequence we are committed to a sea-level rise of approximately 2.3 m degrees C-1 within the next 2,000 y. Considering the lifetime of anthropogenic greenhouse gases, this imposes the need for fundamental adaptation strategies on multicentennial time scales.}, language = {en} } @article{GarbeAlbrechtLevermannetal.2020, author = {Garbe, Julius and Albrecht, Torsten and Levermann, Anders and Donges, Jonathan and Winkelmann, Ricarda}, title = {The hysteresis of the Antarctic Ice Sheet}, series = {Nature : the international weekly journal of science}, volume = {585}, journal = {Nature : the international weekly journal of science}, number = {7826}, publisher = {Macmillan Publishers Limited}, address = {Berlin}, issn = {0028-0836}, doi = {10.1038/s41586-020-2727-5}, pages = {538 -- 544}, year = {2020}, abstract = {More than half of Earth's freshwater resources are held by the Antarctic Ice Sheet, which thus represents by far the largest potential source for global sea-level rise under future warming conditions(1). Its long-term stability determines the fate of our coastal cities and cultural heritage. Feedbacks between ice, atmosphere, ocean, and the solid Earth give rise to potential nonlinearities in its response to temperature changes. So far, we are lacking a comprehensive stability analysis of the Antarctic Ice Sheet for different amounts of global warming. Here we show that the Antarctic Ice Sheet exhibits a multitude of temperature thresholds beyond which ice loss is irreversible. Consistent with palaeodata(2)we find, using the Parallel Ice Sheet Model(3-5), that at global warming levels around 2 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels, West Antarctica is committed to long-term partial collapse owing to the marine ice-sheet instability. Between 6 and 9 degrees of warming above pre-industrial levels, the loss of more than 70 per cent of the present-day ice volume is triggered, mainly caused by the surface elevation feedback. At more than 10 degrees of warming above pre-industrial levels, Antarctica is committed to become virtually ice-free. The ice sheet's temperature sensitivity is 1.3 metres of sea-level equivalent per degree of warming up to 2 degrees above pre-industrial levels, almost doubling to 2.4 metres per degree of warming between 2 and 6 degrees and increasing to about 10 metres per degree of warming between 6 and 9 degrees. Each of these thresholds gives rise to hysteresis behaviour: that is, the currently observed ice-sheet configuration is not regained even if temperatures are reversed to present-day levels. In particular, the West Antarctic Ice Sheet does not regrow to its modern extent until temperatures are at least one degree Celsius lower than pre-industrial levels. Our results show that if the Paris Agreement is not met, Antarctica's long-term sea-level contribution will dramatically increase and exceed that of all other sources.
Modelling shows that the Antarctic Ice Sheet exhibits multiple temperature thresholds beyond which ice loss would become irreversible, and once melted, the ice sheet can regain its previous mass only if the climate cools well below pre-industrial temperatures.}, language = {en} } @article{ReeseGudmundssonLevermannetal.2017, author = {Reese, Ronja and Gudmundsson, Gudmundur Hilmar and Levermann, Anders and Winkelmann, Ricarda}, title = {The far reach of ice-shelf thinning in Antarctica}, series = {Nature climate change}, volume = {8}, journal = {Nature climate change}, number = {1}, publisher = {Nature Publ. Group}, address = {London}, issn = {1758-678X}, doi = {10.1038/s41558-017-0020-x}, pages = {53 -- 57}, year = {2017}, abstract = {Floating ice shelves, which fringe most of Antarctica's coastline, regulate ice flow into the Southern Ocean1,2,3. Their thinning4,5,6,7 or disintegration8,9 can cause upstream acceleration of grounded ice and raise global sea levels. So far the effect has not been quantified in a comprehensive and spatially explicit manner. Here, using a finite-element model, we diagnose the immediate, continent-wide flux response to different spatial patterns of ice-shelf mass loss. We show that highly localized ice-shelf thinning can reach across the entire shelf and accelerate ice flow in regions far from the initial perturbation. As an example, this 'tele-buttressing' enhances outflow from Bindschadler Ice Stream in response to thinning near Ross Island more than 900 km away. We further find that the integrated flux response across all grounding lines is highly dependent on the location of imposed changes: the strongest response is caused not only near ice streams and ice rises, but also by thinning, for instance, well-within the Filchner-Ronne and Ross Ice Shelves. The most critical regions in all major ice shelves are often located in regions easily accessible to the intrusion of warm ocean waters10,11,12, stressing Antarctica's vulnerability to changes in its surrounding ocean.}, language = {en} }