@article{SalamatZareHolschneideretal.2016,
  author    = {Salamat, Mona and Zare, Mehdi and Holschneider, Matthias and Z{\"o}ller, Gert},
  title     = {Calculation of Confidence Intervals for the Maximum Magnitude of Earthquakes in Different Seismotectonic Zones of Iran},
  series = {Pure and applied geophysics},
  volume    = {174},
  journal   = {Pure and applied geophysics},
  publisher = {Springer},
  address   = {Basel},
  issn      = {0033-4553},
  doi       = {10.1007/s00024-016-1418-5},
  pages     = {763 -- 777},
  year      = {2016},
  abstract  = {The problem of estimating the maximum possible earthquake magnitude m(max) has attracted growing attention in recent years. Due to sparse data, the role of uncertainties becomes crucial. In this work, we determine the uncertainties related to the maximum magnitude in terms of confidence intervals. Using an earthquake catalog of Iran, m(max) is estimated for different predefined levels of confidence in six seismotectonic zones. Assuming the doubly truncated Gutenberg-Richter distribution as a statistical model for earthquake magnitudes, confidence intervals for the maximum possible magnitude of earthquakes are calculated in each zone. While the lower limit of the confidence interval is the magnitude of the maximum observed event, the upper limit is calculated from the catalog and the statistical model. For this aim, we use the original catalog which no declustering methods applied on as well as a declustered version of the catalog. Based on the study by Holschneider et al. (Bull Seismol Soc Am 101(4): 1649-1659, 2011), the confidence interval for m(max) is frequently unbounded, especially if high levels of confidence are required. In this case, no information is gained from the data. Therefore, we elaborate for which settings finite confidence levels are obtained. In this work, Iran is divided into six seismotectonic zones, namely Alborz, Azerbaijan, Zagros, Makran, Kopet Dagh, Central Iran. Although calculations of the confidence interval in Central Iran and Zagros seismotectonic zones are relatively acceptable for meaningful levels of confidence, results in Kopet Dagh, Alborz, Azerbaijan and Makran are not that much promising. The results indicate that estimating mmax from an earthquake catalog for reasonable levels of confidence alone is almost impossible.},
  language  = {en}
}
@article{ZoellerHolschneider2016,
  author    = {Z{\"o}ller, Gert and Holschneider, Matthias},
  title     = {The Maximum Possible and the Maximum Expected Earthquake Magnitude for Production-Induced Earthquakes at the Gas Field in Groningen, The Netherlands},
  series = {Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America},
  volume    = {106},
  journal   = {Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America},
  publisher = {Seismological Society of America},
  address   = {Albany},
  issn      = {0037-1106},
  doi       = {10.1785/0120160220},
  pages     = {2917 -- 2921},
  year      = {2016},
  abstract  = {The Groningen gas field serves as a natural laboratory for production-induced earthquakes, because no earthquakes were observed before the beginning of gas production. Increasing gas production rates resulted in growing earthquake activity and eventually in the occurrence of the 2012M(w) 3.6 Huizinge earthquake. At least since this event, a detailed seismic hazard and risk assessment including estimation of the maximum earthquake magnitude is considered to be necessary to decide on the future gas production. In this short note, we first apply state-of-the-art methods of mathematical statistics to derive confidence intervals for the maximum possible earthquake magnitude m(max). Second, we calculate the maximum expected magnitude M-T in the time between 2016 and 2024 for three assumed gas-production scenarios. Using broadly accepted physical assumptions and 90\% confidence level, we suggest a value of m(max) 4.4, whereas M-T varies between 3.9 and 4.3, depending on the production scenario.},
  language  = {en}
}
@article{ZoellerHolschneider2016,
  author    = {Z{\"o}ller, Gert and Holschneider, Matthias},
  title     = {The Earthquake History in a Fault Zone Tells Us Almost Nothing about m(max)},
  series = {Seismological research letters},
  volume    = {87},
  journal   = {Seismological research letters},
  publisher = {Seismological Society of America},
  address   = {Albany},
  issn      = {0895-0695},
  doi       = {10.1785/0220150176},
  pages     = {132 -- 137},
  year      = {2016},
  abstract  = {In the present study, we summarize and evaluate the endeavors from recent years to estimate the maximum possible earthquake magnitude m(max) from observed data. In particular, we use basic and physically motivated assumptions to identify best cases and worst cases in terms of lowest and highest degree of uncertainty of m(max). In a general framework, we demonstrate that earthquake data and earthquake proxy data recorded in a fault zone provide almost no information about m(max) unless reliable and homogeneous data of a long time interval, including several earthquakes with magnitude close to m(max), are available. Even if detailed earthquake information from some centuries including historic and paleoearthquakes are given, only very few, namely the largest events, will contribute at all to the estimation of m(max), and this results in unacceptably high uncertainties. As a consequence, estimators of m(max) in a fault zone, which are based solely on earthquake-related information from this region, have to be dismissed.},
  language  = {en}
}