@article{RybskiReusserWinzetal.2016,
  author    = {Rybski, Diego and Reusser, Dominik Edwin and Winz, Anna-Lena and Fichtner, Christina and Sterzel, Till and Kropp, J{\"u}rgen},
  title     = {Cities as nuclei of sustainability?},
  series = {Environment and Planning B: Urban Analytics and City Science},
  volume    = {44},
  journal   = {Environment and Planning B: Urban Analytics and City Science},
  number    = {3},
  publisher = {Sage Publ.},
  address   = {London},
  issn      = {2399-8083},
  doi       = {10.1177/0265813516638340},
  pages     = {425 -- 440},
  year      = {2016},
  abstract  = {We have assembled CO2 emission figures from collections of urban GHG emission estimates published in peer-reviewed journals or reports from research institutes and non-governmental organizations. Analyzing the scaling with population size, we find that the exponent is development dependent with a transition from super- to sub-linear scaling. From the climate change mitigation point of view, the results suggest that urbanization is desirable in developed countries. Further, we compare this analysis with a second scaling relation, namely the fundamental allometry between city population and area, and propose that density might be a decisive quantity too. Last, we derive the theoretical country-wide urban emissions by integration and obtain a dependence on the size of the largest city.},
  language  = {en}
}
@article{WenzKalkuhlSteckeletal.2016,
  author    = {Wenz, Leonie and Kalkuhl, Matthias and Steckel, Jan Christoph and Creutzig, Felix},
  title     = {Teleconnected food supply shocks},
  series = {Environmental research letters},
  volume    = {11},
  journal   = {Environmental research letters},
  publisher = {IOP Publ. Ltd.},
  address   = {Bristol},
  issn      = {1748-9326},
  doi       = {10.1088/1748-9326/11/3/035007},
  pages     = {10},
  year      = {2016},
  abstract  = {The 2008-2010 food crisis might have been a harbinger of fundamental climate-induced food crises with geopolitical implications. Heat-wave-induced yield losses in Russia and resulting export restrictions led to increases in market prices for wheat across the Middle East, likely contributing to the Arab Spring. With ongoing climate change, temperatures and temperature variability will rise, leading to higher uncertainty in yields for major nutritional crops. Here we investigate which countries are most vulnerable to teleconnected supply-shocks, i.e. where diets strongly rely on the import of wheat, maize, or rice, and where a large share of the population is living in poverty. We find that the Middle East is most sensitive to teleconnected supply shocks in wheat, Central America to supply shocks in maize, and Western Africa to supply shocks in rice. Weighing with poverty levels, Sub-Saharan Africa is most affected. Altogether, a simultaneous 10\% reduction in exports of wheat, rice, and maize would reduce caloric intake of 55 million people living in poverty by about 5\%. Export bans in major producing regions would put up to 200 million people below the poverty line at risk, 90\% of which live in Sub-Saharan Africa. Our results suggest that a region-specific combination of national increases in agricultural productivity and diversification of trade partners and diets can effectively decrease future food security risks.},
  language  = {en}
}
@article{KellermannBubeckKundelaetal.2016,
  author    = {Kellermann, Patric and Bubeck, Philip and Kundela, Guenther and Dosio, Alessandro and Thieken, Annegret},
  title     = {Frequency Analysis of Critical Meteorological Conditions in a Changing ClimateAssessing Future Implications for Railway Transportation in Austria},
  series = {Climate : open access journal},
  volume    = {4},
  journal   = {Climate : open access journal},
  publisher = {MDPI},
  address   = {Basel},
  issn      = {2225-1154},
  doi       = {10.3390/cli4020025},
  pages     = {914 -- 931},
  year      = {2016},
  abstract  = {Meteorological extreme events have great potential for damaging railway infrastructure and posing risks to the safety of train passengers. In the future, climate change will presumably have serious implications on meteorological hazards in the Alpine region. Hence, attaining insights on future frequencies of meteorological extremes with relevance for the railway operation in Austria is required in the context of a comprehensive and sustainable natural hazard management plan of the railway operator. In this study, possible impacts of climate change on the frequencies of so-called critical meteorological conditions (CMCs) between the periods 1961-1990 and 2011-2040 are analyzed. Thresholds for such CMCs have been defined by the railway operator and used in its weather monitoring and early warning system. First, the seasonal climate change signals for air temperature and precipitation in Austria are described on the basis of an ensemble of high-resolution Regional Climate Model (RCM) simulations for Europe. Subsequently, the RCM-ensemble was used to investigate changes in the frequency of CMCs. Finally, the sensitivity of results is analyzed with varying threshold values for the CMCs. Results give robust indications for an all-season air temperature rise, but show no clear tendency in average precipitation. The frequency analyses reveal an increase in intense rainfall events and heat waves, whereas heavy snowfall and cold days are likely to decrease. Furthermore, results indicate that frequencies of CMCs are rather sensitive to changes of thresholds. It thus emphasizes the importance to carefully define, validate, andif neededto adapt the thresholds that are used in the weather monitoring and warning system of the railway operator. For this, continuous and standardized documentation of damaging events and near-misses is a pre-requisite.},
  language  = {en}
}
@article{Schneider2016,
  author    = {Schneider, Birgit},
  title     = {Burning worlds of cartography: a critical approach to climate cosmograms of the Anthropocene},
  series = {Geo : geography and environment},
  volume    = {3},
  journal   = {Geo : geography and environment},
  publisher = {Wiley},
  address   = {Hoboken},
  issn      = {2054-4049},
  doi       = {10.1002/geo2.27},
  pages     = {15},
  year      = {2016},
  abstract  = {Climate science today makes use of a variety of red globes to explore and communicate findings. These transform the iconography which informs this image: the idealised, even mythical vision of the blue, vulnerable and perfect marble is impaired by the application of the colours yellow and red. Since only predictions that employ a lot of red seem to exist, spectators are confronted with the message that the future Earth that might turn out as envisaged here is undesirable. Here intuitively powerful narrations of the end of the world may connect. By employing methods of art history and visual analysis, and building on examples from current Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change reports and future scenario maps, this article explores how burning world images bear - intentionally or not - elements of horror and shock. My question explored here is as follows: should 'burning world' images be understood as a new and powerful cosmology?},
  language  = {en}
}
@article{GeigerFrielerLevermann2016,
  author    = {Geiger, Tobias and Frieler, Katja and Levermann, Anders},
  title     = {High-income does not protect against hurricane losses},
  series = {Environmental research letters},
  volume    = {11},
  journal   = {Environmental research letters},
  publisher = {IOP Publ. Ltd.},
  address   = {Bristol},
  issn      = {1748-9326},
  doi       = {10.1088/1748-9326/11/8/084012},
  pages     = {10},
  year      = {2016},
  abstract  = {Damage due to tropical cyclones accounts for more than 50\% of all meteorologically-induced economic losses worldwide. Their nominal impact is projected to increase substantially as the exposed population grows, per capita income increases, and anthropogenic climate change manifests. So far, historical losses due to tropical cyclones have been found to increase less than linearly with a nation's affected gross domestic product (GDP). Here we show that for the United States this scaling is caused by a sub-linear increase with affected population while relative losses scale super-linearly with per capita income. The finding is robust across a multitude of empirically derived damage models that link the storm's wind speed, exposed population, and per capita GDP to reported losses. The separation of both socio-economic predictors strongly affects the projection of potential future hurricane losses. Separating the effects of growth in population and per-capita income, per hurricane losses with respect to national GDP are projected to triple by the end of the century under unmitigated climate change, while they are estimated to decrease slightly without the separation.},
  language  = {en}
}
@article{DiCapuaCoumou2016,
  author    = {Di Capua, Giorgia and Coumou, Dim},
  title     = {Changes in meandering of the Northern Hemisphere circulation},
  series = {Environmental research letters},
  volume    = {11},
  journal   = {Environmental research letters},
  publisher = {IOP Publ. Ltd.},
  address   = {Bristol},
  issn      = {1748-9326},
  doi       = {10.1088/1748-9326/11/9/094028},
  pages     = {9},
  year      = {2016},
  abstract  = {Strong waves in the mid-latitude circulation have been linked to extreme surface weather and thus changes in waviness could have serious consequences for society. Several theories have been proposed which could alter waviness, including tropical sea surface temperature anomalies or rapid climate change in the Arctic. However, so far it remains unclear whether any changes in waviness have actually occurred. Here we propose a novel meandering index which captures the maximum waviness in geopotential height contours at any given day, using all information of the full spatial position of each contour. Data are analysed on different time scale (from daily to 11 day running means) and both on hemispheric and regional scales. Using quantile regressions, we analyse how seasonal distributions of this index have changed over 1979-2015. The most robust changes are detected for autumn which has seen a pronounced increase in strongly meandering patterns at the hemispheric level as well as over the Eurasian sector. In summer for both the hemisphere and the Eurasian sector, significant downward trends in meandering are detected on daily timescales which is consistent with the recently reported decrease in summer storm track activity. The American sector shows the strongest increase in meandering in the warm season: in particular for 11 day running mean data, indicating enhanced amplitudes of quasi-stationary waves. Our findings have implications for both the occurrence of recent cold spells and persistent heat waves in the mid-latitudes.},
  language  = {en}
}
@phdthesis{Heybl2016,
  author    = {Heybl, Christine},
  title     = {Der Klimawandel},
  url       = {http://nbn-resolving.de/urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-102442},
  school      = {Universit{\"a}t Potsdam},
  pages     = {293},
  year      = {2016},
  abstract  = {Was ist Gerechtigkeit? Wie k{\"o}nnten gerechte Regelungen aussehen f{\"u}r die Katastrophen und Leiden, die der Klimawandel ausl{\"o}st bzw. ausl{\"o}sen wird? Diese sind h{\"a}ufig ungerecht, weil sie oft deutlich st{\"a}rker diejenigen treffen, die am wenigsten zur Klimaver{\"a}nderung beigetragen haben. Doch was genau verstehen wir unter dem Schlagwort: ‚Klimawandel'? Und kann dieser wirklich den Menschen direkt treffen? Ein kurzer naturwissenschaftlicher Abriss kl{\"a}rt hier die wichtigsten Fragen. Da es sich hierbei um eine philosophische Arbeit handelt, muss zun{\"a}chst gekl{\"a}rt werden, ob der Mensch {\"u}berhaupt die Ursache von so etwas sein kann wie z.B. der Klimaerw{\"a}rmung. Robert Spaemanns These dazu ist, dass der Mensch durch seinen freien Willen mit seinen Einzelhandlungen das Weltgeschehen ver{\"a}ndern kann. Hans Jonas f{\"u}gt dem hinzu, dass wir durch diese F{\"a}higkeit, verantwortlich sind f{\"u}r die gewollten und ungewollten Folgen unserer Handlungen. Damit w{\"a}re aus naturwissenschaftlicher Sicht (1. Teil der Arbeit) und aus philosophischer Sicht (Anfang 2. Teil) gekl{\"a}rt, dass der Mensch mit gr{\"o}ßter Wahrscheinlichkeit die Ursache des Klimawandels ist und diese Verursachung moralische Konsequenzen f{\"u}r ihn hat. Ein philosophischer Gerechtigkeitsbegriff wird aus der Kantischen Rechts- und Moralphilosophie entwickelt, weil diese die einzige ist, die dem Menschen {\"u}berhaupt ein Recht auf Rechte zusprechen kann. Diese entspringt der transzendentalen Freiheitsf{\"a}higkeit des Menschen, weshalb jedem das Recht auf Rechte absolut und immer zukommt. Gleichzeitig m{\"u}ndet Kants Philosophie wiederum in dem Freiheitsgedanken, indem Gerechtigkeit nur existiert, wenn alle Menschen gleichermaßen frei sein k{\"o}nnen. Was heißt das konkret? Wie k{\"o}nnte Gerechtigkeit in der Realit{\"a}t wirklich umgesetzt werden? Die Realisierung schl{\"a}gt zwei Grundrichtungen ein. John Rawls und Stefan Gosepath besch{\"a}ftigen sich u.a. eingehend mit der prozeduralen Gerechtigkeit, was bedeutet, dass gerechte Verfahren gefunden werden, die das gesellschaftliche Zusammenleben regeln. Das leitende Prinzip hierf{\"u}r ist vor allem: ein Mitbestimmungsrecht aller, so dass sich im Prinzip alle B{\"u}rger ihre Gesetze selbst geben und damit frei handeln. In Bezug auf den Klimawandel steht die zweite Ausrichtung im Vordergrund - die distributive oder auch Verteilungs-Gerechtigkeit. Materielle G{\"u}ter m{\"u}ssen so aufgeteilt werden, dass auch trotz empirischer Unterschiede alle Menschen als moralische Subjekte anerkannt werden und frei sein k{\"o}nnen. Doch sind diese philosophischen Schlussfolgerungen nicht viel zu abstrakt, um auf ein ebenso schwer fassbares und globales Problem wie den Klimawandel angewendet zu werden? Was k{\"o}nnte daher eine Klimagerechtigkeit sein? Es gibt viele Gerechtigkeitsprinzipien, die vorgeben, eine gerechte Grundlage f{\"u}r die Klimaprobleme zu bieten wie z.B. das Verursacherprinzip, das F{\"a}higkeitsprinzip oder das Grandfathering-Prinzip, bei dem die Hauptverursacher nach wie vor am meisten emittieren d{\"u}rfen (dieses Prinzip leitete die bisherigen internationalen Verhandlungen). Das Ziel dieser Arbeit ist, herauszufinden, wie die Klimaprobleme gel{\"o}st werden k{\"o}nnen, so dass f{\"u}r alle Menschen unter allen Umst{\"a}nden die universellen Menschenrechte her- und sichergestellt werden und diese frei und moralisch handeln k{\"o}nnen. Die Schlussfolgerung dieser Arbeit ist, dass Kants Gerechtigkeitsbegriff durch eine Kombination des Subsistenzemissions-Rechts, des Greenhouse-Development-Rights-Principles (GDR-Prinzip) und einer internationalen Staatlichkeit durchgesetzt werden k{\"o}nnte. Durch das Subsistenzemissions-Recht hat jeder Mensch das Recht, so viel Energie zu verbrauchen und damit zusammenh{\"a}ngende Emissionen zu produzieren, dass er ein menschenw{\"u}rdiges Leben f{\"u}hren kann. Das GDR-Prinzip errechnet den Anteil an der weltweiten Gesamtverantwortung zum Klimaschutz eines jeden Landes oder sogar eines jeden Weltb{\"u}rgers, indem es die historischen Emissionen (Klimaschuld) zu der jetzigen finanziellen Kapazit{\"a}t des Landes/ des Individuums (Verantwortungsf{\"a}higkeit) hinzuaddiert. Die Implementierung von internationalen Gremien wird verteidigt, weil es ein globales, grenz{\"u}berschreitendes Problem ist, dessen Effekte und dessen Verantwortung globale Ausmaße haben. Ein schlagendes Argument f{\"u}r fast alle Klimaschutzmaßnahmen ist, dass sie Synergien aufweisen zu anderen gesellschaftlichen Bereichen aufweisen wie z.B. Gesundheit und Armutsbek{\"a}mpfung, in denen auch noch um die Durchsetzung unserer Menschenrechte gerungen wird. Ist dieser L{\"o}sungsansatz nicht v{\"o}llig utopisch? Dieser Vorschlag stellt f{\"u}r die internationale Gemeinschaft eine große Herausforderung dar, w{\"a}re jedoch die einzig gerechte L{\"o}sung unserer Klimaprobleme. Des Weiteren wird an dem Kantischen Handlungsgrundsatz festgehalten, dass das ewige Streben auf ideale Ziele hin, die beste Verwirklichung dieser durch menschliche, fehlbare Wesen ist.},
  language  = {de}
}
@phdthesis{Roers2016,
  author    = {Roers, Michael},
  title     = {Methoden zur Dynamisierung von Klimafolgenanalysen im Elbegebiet},
  url       = {http://nbn-resolving.de/urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-98844},
  school      = {Universit{\"a}t Potsdam},
  pages     = {xiii, 141},
  year      = {2016},
  abstract  = {Die Elbe und ihr Einzugsgebiet sind vom Klimawandel betroffen. Um die Wirkkette von projizierten Klimaver{\"a}nderungen auf den Wasserhaushalt und die daraus resultierenden N{\"a}hrstoffeintr{\"a}ge und -frachten f{\"u}r große Einzugsgebiete wie das der Elbe zu analysieren, k{\"o}nnen integrierte Umweltmodellsysteme eingesetzt werden. Fallstudien, die mit diesen Modellsystemen ad hoc durchgef{\"u}hrt werden, repr{\"a}sentieren den Istzustand von Modellentwicklungen und -unsicherheiten und sind damit statisch. Diese Arbeit beschreibt den Einstieg in die Dynamisierung von Klimafolgenanalysen im Elbegebiet. Dies umfasst zum einen eine Plausibilit{\"a}tspr{\"u}fung von Auswirkungsrechnungen, die mit Szenarien des statistischen Szenariengenerators STARS durchgef{\"u}hrt wurden, durch den Vergleich mit den Auswirkungen neuerer Klimaszenarien aus dem ISI-MIP Projekt, die dem letzten Stand der Klimamodellierung entsprechen. Hierf{\"u}r wird ein integriertes Modellsystem mit "eingefrorenem Entwicklungsstand" verwendet. Die Klimawirkungsmodelle bleiben dabei unver{\"a}ndert. Zum anderen wird ein Bestandteil des integrierten Modellsystems - das {\"o}kohydrologische Modell SWIM - zu einer "live"-Version weiterentwickelt. Diese wird durch punktuelle Testung an langj{\"a}hrigen Versuchsreihen eines Lysimeterstandorts sowie an aktuellen Abflussreihen validiert und verbessert. Folgende Forschungsfragen werden bearbeitet: (i) Welche Effekte haben unterschiedliche Klimaszenarien auf den Wasserhaushalt im Elbegebiet und ist eine Neubewertung der Auswirkung des Klimawandels auf den Wasserhaushalt notwendig?, (ii) Was sind die Auswirkungen des Klimawandels auf die N{\"a}hrstoffeintr{\"a}ge und -frachten im Elbegebiet sowie die Wirksamkeit von Maßnahmen zur Reduktion der N{\"a}hrstoffeintr{\"a}ge?, (iii) Ist unter der Nutzung (selbst einer sehr geringen Anzahl) verf{\"u}gbarer tagesaktueller Witterungsdaten in einem stark heterogenen Einzugsgebiet eine valide Ansprache der aktuellen {\"o}kohydrologischen Situation des Elbeeinzugsgebiets m{\"o}glich? Die aktuellen Szenarien best{\"a}tigen die Richtung, jedoch nicht das Ausmaß der Klimafolgen: Die R{\"u}ckg{\"a}nge des mittleren j{\"a}hrlichen Gesamtabflusses und der monatlichen Abfl{\"u}sse an den Pegeln bis Mitte des Jahrhunderts betragen f{\"u}r das STARS-Szenario ca. 30 \%. Die R{\"u}ckg{\"a}nge bei den auf dem ISI-MIP-Szenario basierenden Modellstudien liegen hingegen nur bei ca. 10 \%. Hauptursachen f{\"u}r diese Divergenz sind die Unterschiede in den Niederschlagsprojektionen sowie die Unterschiede in der jahreszeitlichen Verteilung der Erw{\"a}rmung. Im STARS-Szenario gehen methodisch bedingt die Niederschl{\"a}ge zur{\"u}ck und der Winter erw{\"a}rmt sich st{\"a}rker als der Sommer. In dem ISI-MIP-Szenario bleiben die Niederschl{\"a}ge nahezu stabil und die Erw{\"a}rmung im Sommer und Winter unterscheidet sich nur geringf{\"u}gig. Generell nehmen die N{\"a}hrstoffeintr{\"a}ge und -frachten mit den Abfl{\"u}ssen in beiden Szenarien unterproportional ab, wobei die Frachten jeweils st{\"a}rker als die Eintr{\"a}ge zur{\"u}ckgehen. Die konkreten Effekte der Abfluss{\"a}nderungen sind gering und liegen im einstelligen Prozentbereich. Gleiches gilt f{\"u}r die Unterschiede zwischen den Szenarien. Der Effekt von zwei ausgew{\"a}hlten Maßnahmen zur Reduktion der N{\"a}hrstoffeintr{\"a}ge und -frachten unterscheidet sich bei verschiedenen Abflussverh{\"a}ltnissen, repr{\"a}sentiert durch unterschiedliche Klimaszenarien in unterschiedlich feuchter Auspr{\"a}gung, ebenfalls nur geringf{\"u}gig. Die Beantwortung der ersten beiden Forschungsfragen zeigt, dass die Aktualisierung von Klimaszenarien in einem ansonsten "eingefrorenen" Verbund von {\"o}kohydrologischen Daten und Modellen eine wichtige Pr{\"u}foption f{\"u}r die Plausibilisierung von Klimafolgenanalysen darstellt. Sie bildet die methodische Grundlage f{\"u}r die Schlussfolgerung, dass bei der Wassermenge eine Neubewertung der Klimafolgen notwendig ist, w{\"a}hrend dies bei den N{\"a}hrstoffeintr{\"a}gen und -frachten nicht der Fall ist. Die zur Beantwortung der dritten Forschungsfrage mit SWIM-live durchgef{\"u}hrten Validierungsstudien ergeben Diskrepanzen am Lysimeterstandort und bei den Abfl{\"u}ssen aus den Teilgebieten Saale und Spree. Sie lassen sich zum Teil mit der notwendigen Interpolationsweite der Witterungsdaten und dem Einfluss von Wasserbewirtschaftungsmaßnahmen erkl{\"a}ren. Insgesamt zeigen die Validierungsergebnisse, dass schon die Pilotversion von SWIM-live f{\"u}r eine {\"o}kohydrologische Ansprache des Gebietswasserhaushaltes im Elbeeinzugsgebiet genutzt werden kann. SWIM-live erm{\"o}glicht eine unmittelbare Betrachtung und Beurteilung simulierter Daten. Dadurch werden Unsicherheiten bei der Modellierung direkt offengelegt und k{\"o}nnen infolge dessen reduziert werden. Zum einen f{\"u}hrte die Verdichtung der meteorologischen Eingangsdaten durch die Verwendung von nun ca. 700 anstatt 19 Klima- bzw. Niederschlagstationen zu einer Verbesserung der Ergebnisse. Zum anderen wurde SWIM-live beispielhaft f{\"u}r einen Zyklus aus punktueller Modellverbesserung und fl{\"a}chiger {\"U}berpr{\"u}fung der Simulationsergebnisse genutzt. Die einzelnen Teilarbeiten tragen jeweils zur Dynamisierung von Klimafolgenanalysen im Elbegebiet bei. Der Anlass hierf{\"u}r war durch die fehlerhaften methodischen Grundlagen von STARS gegeben. Die Sinnf{\"a}lligkeit der Dynamisierung ist jedoch nicht an diesen konkreten Anlass gebunden, sondern beruht auf der grundlegenden Einsicht, dass Ad-hoc-Szenarienanalysen immer auch pragmatische Vereinfachungen zugrunde liegen, die fortlaufend {\"u}berpr{\"u}ft werden m{\"u}ssen.},
  language  = {de}
}
@phdthesis{Olonscheck2016,
  author    = {Olonscheck, Mady},
  title     = {Climate change impacts on electricity and residential energy demand},
  url       = {http://nbn-resolving.de/urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-98378},
  school      = {Universit{\"a}t Potsdam},
  pages     = {XXIV, 127},
  year      = {2016},
  abstract  = {The energy sector is both affected by climate change and a key sector for climate protection measures. Energy security is the backbone of our modern society and guarantees the functioning of most critical infrastructure. Thus, decision makers and energy suppliers of different countries should be familiar with the factors that increase or decrease the susceptibility of their electricity sector to climate change. Susceptibility means socioeconomic and structural characteristics of the electricity sector that affect the demand for and supply of electricity under climate change. Moreover, the relevant stakeholders are supposed to know whether the given national energy and climate targets are feasible and what needs to be done in order to meet these targets. In this regard, a focus should be on the residential building sector as it is one of the largest energy consumers and therefore emitters of anthropogenic CO 2 worldwide. This dissertation addresses the first aspect, namely the susceptibility of the electricity sector, by developing a ranked index which allows for quantitative comparison of the electricity sector susceptibility of 21 European countries based on 14 influencing factors. Such a ranking has not been completed to date. We applied a sensitivity analysis to test the relative effect of each influencing factor on the susceptibility index ranking. We also discuss reasons for the ranking position and thus the susceptibility of selected countries. The second objective, namely the impact of climate change on the energy demand of buildings, is tackled by means of a new model with which the heating and cooling energy demand of residential buildings can be estimated. We exemplarily applied the model to Germany and the Netherlands. It considers projections of future changes in population, climate and the insulation standards of buildings, whereas most of the existing studies only take into account fewer than three different factors that influence the future energy demand of buildings. Furthermore, we developed a comprehensive retrofitting algorithm with which the total residential building stock can be modeled for the first time for each year in the past and future. The study confirms that there is no correlation between the geographical location of a country and its position in the electricity sector susceptibility ranking. Moreover, we found no pronounced pattern of susceptibility influencing factors between countries that ranked higher or lower in the index. We illustrate that Luxembourg, Greece, Slovakia and Italy are the countries with the highest electricity sector susceptibility. The electricity sectors of Norway, the Czech Republic, Portugal and Denmark were found to be least susceptible to climate change. Knowledge about the most important factors for the poor and good ranking positions of these countries is crucial for finding adequate adaptation measures to reduce the susceptibility of the electricity sector. Therefore, these factors are described within this study. We show that the heating energy demand of residential buildings will strongly decrease in both Germany and the Netherlands in the future. The analysis for the Netherlands focused on the regional level and a finer temporal resolution which revealed strong variations in the future heating energy demand changes by province and by month. In the German study, we additionally investigated the future cooling energy demand and could demonstrate that it will only slightly increase up to the middle of this century. Thus, increases in the cooling energy demand are not expected to offset reductions in heating energy demand. The main factor for substantial heating energy demand reductions is the retrofitting of buildings. We are the first to show that the given German and Dutch energy and climate targets in the building sector can only be met if the annual retrofitting rates are substantially increased. The current rate of only about 1 \% of the total building stock per year is insufficient for reaching a nearly zero-energy demand of all residential buildings by the middle of this century. To reach this target, it would need to be at least tripled. To sum up, this thesis emphasizes that country-specific characteristics are decisive for the electricity sector susceptibility of European countries. It also shows for different scenarios how much energy is needed in the future to heat and cool residential buildings. With this information, existing climate mitigation and adaptation measures can be justified or new actions encouraged.},
  language  = {en}
}
@phdthesis{Gutsch2016,
  author    = {Gutsch, Martin},
  title     = {Model-based analysis of climate change impacts on the productivity of oak-pine forests in Brandenburg},
  url       = {http://nbn-resolving.de/urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-97241},
  school      = {Universit{\"a}t Potsdam},
  pages     = {vii, 148},
  year      = {2016},
  abstract  = {The relationship between climate and forest productivity is an intensively studied subject in forest science. This Thesis is embedded within the general framework of future forest growth under climate change and its implications for the ongoing forest conversion. My objective is to investigate the future forest productivity at different spatial scales (from a single specific forest stand to aggregated information across Germany) with focus on oak-pine forests in the federal state of Brandenburg. The overarching question is: how are the oak-pine forests affected by climate change described by a variety of climate scenarios. I answer this question by using a model based analysis of tree growth processes and responses to different climate scenarios with emphasis on drought events. In addition, a method is developed which considers climate change uncertainty of forest management planning. As a first 'screening' of climate change impacts on forest productivity, I calculated the change in net primary production on the base of a large set of climate scenarios for different tree species and the total area of Germany. Temperature increases up to 3 K lead to positive effects on the net primary production of all selected tree species. But, in water-limited regions this positive net primary production trend is dependent on the length of drought periods which results in a larger uncertainty regarding future forest productivity. One of the regions with the highest uncertainty of net primary production development is the federal state of Brandenburg. To enhance the understanding and ability of model based analysis of tree growth sensitivity to drought stress two water uptake approaches in pure pine and mixed oak-pine stands are contrasted. The first water uptake approach consists of an empirical function for root water uptake. The second approach is more mechanistic and calculates the differences of soil water potential along a soil-plant-atmosphere continuum. I assumed the total root resistance to vary at low, medium and high total root resistance levels. For validation purposes three data sets on different tree growth relevant time scales are used. Results show that, except the mechanistic water uptake approach with high total root resistance, all transpiration outputs exceeded observed values. On the other hand high transpiration led to a better match of observed soil water content. The strongest correlation between simulated and observed annual tree ring width occurred with the mechanistic water uptake approach and high total root resistance. The findings highlight the importance of severe drought as a main reason for small diameter increment, best supported by the mechanistic water uptake approach with high root resistance. However, if all aspects of the data sets are considered no approach can be judged superior to the other. I conclude that the uncertainty of future productivity of water-limited forest ecosystems under changing environmental conditions is linked to simulated root water uptake. Finally my study aimed at the impacts of climate change combined with management scenarios on an oak-pine forest to evaluate growth, biomass and the amount of harvested timber. The pine and the oak trees are 104 and 9 years old respectively. Three different management scenarios with different thinning intensities and different climate scenarios are used to simulate the performance of management strategies which explicitly account for the risks associated with achieving three predefined objectives (maximum carbon storage, maximum harvested timber, intermediate). I found out that in most cases there is no general management strategy which fits best to different objectives. The analysis of variance in the growth related model outputs showed an increase of climate uncertainty with increasing climate warming. Interestingly, the increase of climate-induced uncertainty is much higher from 2 to 3 K than from 0 to 2 K.},
  language  = {en}
}