@article{EmbersonHoviusGalyetal.2016, author = {Emberson, Robert and Hovius, Niels and Galy, Albert and Marc, Odin}, title = {Chemical weathering in active mountain belts controlled by stochastic bedrock landsliding}, series = {Nature geoscience}, volume = {9}, journal = {Nature geoscience}, publisher = {Nature Publ. Group}, address = {New York}, issn = {1752-0894}, doi = {10.1038/NGEO2600}, pages = {42 -- +}, year = {2016}, abstract = {A link between chemical weathering and physical erosion exists at the catchment scale over a wide range of erosion rates(1,2). However, in mountain environments, where erosion rates are highest, weathering may be kinetically limited(3-5) and therefore decoupled from erosion. In active mountain belts, erosion is driven by bedrock landsliding(6) at rates that depend strongly on the occurrence of extreme rainfall or seismicity(7). Although landslides affect only a small proportion of the landscape, bedrock landsliding can promote the collection and slow percolation of surface runoff in highly fragmented rock debris and create favourable conditions for weathering. Here we show from analysis of surface water chemistry in the Southern Alps of New Zealand that weathering in bedrock landslides controls the variability in solute load of these mountain rivers. We find that systematic patterns in surface water chemistry are strongly associated with landslide occurrence at scales from a single hillslope to an entire mountain belt, and that landslides boost weathering rates and river solute loads over decades. We conclude that landslides couple erosion and weathering in fast-eroding uplands and, thus, mountain weathering is a stochastic process that is sensitive to climatic and tectonic controls on mass wasting processes.}, language = {en} } @article{deAraujoBronstert2016, author = {de Araujo, Jose Carlos and Bronstert, Axel}, title = {A method to assess hydrological drought in semi-arid environments and its application to the Jaguaribe River basin, Brazil}, series = {Water International}, volume = {41}, journal = {Water International}, publisher = {Wiley-Blackwell}, address = {Abingdon}, issn = {0250-8060}, doi = {10.1080/02508060.2015.1113077}, pages = {213 -- 230}, year = {2016}, abstract = {This manuscript proposes a method to assess hydrological drought in semi-arid environments under high impoundment rate and applies it to the semi-arid Jaguaribe River basin in Brazil. It analyzes droughts (1) in the largest reservoir systems; (2) in the Upper Basin, considering 4744 reservoirs, 800 wells and almost 18,000 cisterns; and (3) in reservoirs of different sizes during multiyear droughts. Results show that the water demand is constrained in the basin; hydrological and meteorological droughts are often out of phase; there is a negative correlation between storage level and drought severity; and the small systems cannot cope with long-term droughts.}, language = {en} } @article{KottmeierAgnonAlHalbounietal.2016, author = {Kottmeier, Christoph and Agnon, Amotz and Al-Halbouni, Djamil and Alpert, Pinhas and Corsmeier, Ulrich and Dahm, Torsten and Eshel, Adam and Geyer, Stefan and Haas, Michael and Holohan, Eoghan and Kalthoff, Norbert and Kishcha, Pavel and Krawczyk, Charlotte and Lati, Joseph and Laronne, Jonathan B. and Lott, Friederike and Mallast, Ulf and Merz, Ralf and Metzger, Jutta and Mohsen, Ayman and Morin, Efrat and Nied, Manuela and Roediger, Tino and Salameh, Elias and Sawarieh, Ali and Shannak, Benbella and Siebert, Christian and Weber, Michael}, title = {New perspectives on interdisciplinary earth science at the Dead Sea: The DESERVE project}, series = {The science of the total environment : an international journal for scientific research into the environment and its relationship with man}, volume = {544}, journal = {The science of the total environment : an international journal for scientific research into the environment and its relationship with man}, publisher = {Elsevier}, address = {Amsterdam}, issn = {0048-9697}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2015.12.003}, pages = {1045 -- 1058}, year = {2016}, abstract = {The Dead Sea region has faced substantial environmental challenges in recent decades, including water resource scarcity, similar to 1 m annual decreases in the water level, sinkhole development, ascending-brine freshwater pollution, and seismic disturbance risks. Natural processes are significantly affected by human interference as well as by climate change and tectonic developments over the long term. To get a deep understanding of processes and their interactions, innovative scientific approaches that integrate disciplinary research and education are required. The research project DESERVE (Helmholtz Virtual Institute Dead Sea Research Venue) addresses these challenges in an interdisciplinary approach that includes geophysics, hydrology, and meteorology. The project is implemented by a consortium of scientific institutions in neighboring countries of the Dead Sea (Israel, Jordan, Palestine Territories) and participating German Helmholtz Centres (KIT, GFZ, UFZ). A new monitoring network of meteorological, hydrological, and seismic/geodynamic stations has been established, and extensive field research and numerical simulations have been undertaken. For the first time, innovative measurement and modeling techniques have been applied to the extreme conditions of the Dead Sea and its surroundings. The preliminary results show the potential of these methods. First time ever performed eddy covariance measurements give insight into the governing factors of Dead Sea evaporation. High-resolution bathymetric investigations reveal a strong correlation between submarine springs and neo-tectonic patterns. Based on detailed studies of stratigraphy and borehole information, the extension of the subsurface drainage basin of the Dead Sea is now reliably estimated. Originality has been achieved in monitoring flash floods in an arid basin at its outlet and simultaneously in tributaries, supplemented by spatio-temporal rainfall data. Low-altitude, high resolution photogrammetry, allied to satellite image analysis and to geophysical surveys (e.g. shear-wave reflections) has enabled a more detailed characterization of sinkhole morphology and temporal development and the possible subsurface controls thereon. All the above listed efforts and scientific results take place with the interdisciplinary education of young scientists. They are invited to attend joint thematic workshops and winter schools as well as to participate in field experiments. (C) 2015 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V.}, language = {en} } @phdthesis{Hannemann2016, author = {Hannemann, Katrin}, title = {Seismological investigation of the oceanic crust und upper mantle using an ocean bottom station array in the vicinity of the Gloria fault (easter mid Atlantic)}, school = {Universit{\"a}t Potsdam}, pages = {199}, year = {2016}, language = {en} } @article{HannemannKruegerDahmetal.2016, author = {Hannemann, Katrin and Kr{\"u}ger, Frank and Dahm, Torsten and Lange, Dietrich}, title = {Oceanic lithospheric S-wave velocities from the analysis of P-wave polarization at the ocean floor}, series = {Geophysical journal international}, volume = {207}, journal = {Geophysical journal international}, publisher = {Oxford Univ. Press}, address = {Oxford}, issn = {0956-540X}, doi = {10.1093/gji/ggw342}, pages = {1796 -- 1817}, year = {2016}, abstract = {Our knowledge of the absolute S-wave velocities of the oceanic lithosphere is mainly based on global surface wave tomography, local active seismic or compliance measurements using oceanic infragravity waves. The results of tomography give a rather smooth picture of the actual S-wave velocity structure and local measurements have limitations regarding the range of elastic parameters or the geometry of the measurement. Here, we use the P-wave polarization (apparent P-wave incidence angle) of teleseismic events to investigate the S-wave velocity structure of the oceanic crust and the upper tens of kilometres of the mantle beneath single stations. In this study, we present an up to our knowledge new relation of the apparent P-wave incidence angle at the ocean bottom dependent on the half-space S-wave velocity. We analyse the angle in different period ranges at ocean bottom stations (OBSs) to derive apparent S-wave velocity profiles. These profiles are dependent on the S-wave velocity as well as on the thickness of the layers in the subsurface. Consequently, their interpretation results in a set of equally valid models. We analyse the apparent P-wave incidence angles of an OBS data set which was collected in the Eastern Mid Atlantic. We are able to determine reasonable S-wave-velocity-depth models by a three-step quantitative modelling after a manual data quality control, although layer resonance sometimes influences the estimated apparent S-wave velocities. The apparent S-wave velocity profiles are well explained by an oceanic PREM model in which the upper part is replaced by four layers consisting of a water column, a sediment, a crust and a layer representing the uppermost mantle. The obtained sediment has a thickness between 0.3 and 0.9 km with S-wave velocities between 0.7 and 1.4 km s(-1). The estimated total crustal thickness varies between 4 and 10 km with S-wave velocities between 3.5 and 4.3 km s(-1). We find a slight increase of the total crustal thickness from similar to 5 to similar to 8 km towards the South in the direction of a major plate boundary, the Gloria Fault. The observed crustal thickening can be related with the known dominant compression in the vicinity of the fault. Furthermore, the resulting mantle S-wave velocities decrease from values around 5.5 to 4.5 km s(-1) towards the fault. This decrease is probably caused by serpentinization and indicates that the oceanic transform fault affects a broad region in the uppermost mantle. Conclusively, the presented method is useful for the estimation of the local S-wave velocity structure beneath ocean bottom seismic stations. It is easy to implement and consists of two main steps: (1) measurement of apparent P-wave incidence angles in different period ranges for real and synthetic data, and (2) comparison of the determined apparent S-wave velocities for real and synthetic data to estimate S-wave velocity-depth models.}, language = {en} } @phdthesis{JaraMunoz2016, author = {Jara Mu{\~n}oz, Julius}, title = {Quantifying forearc deformation patterns using coastal geomorphic markers}, url = {http://nbn-resolving.de/urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-102652}, school = {Universit{\"a}t Potsdam}, pages = {XXV, 213}, year = {2016}, abstract = {Rapidly uplifting coastlines are frequently associated with convergent tectonic boundaries, like subduction zones, which are repeatedly breached by giant megathrust earthquakes. The coastal relief along tectonically active realms is shaped by the effect of sea-level variations and heterogeneous patterns of permanent tectonic deformation, which are accumulated through several cycles of megathrust earthquakes. However, the correlation between earthquake deformation patterns and the sustained long-term segmentation of forearcs, particularly in Chile, remains poorly understood. Furthermore, the methods used to estimate permanent deformation from geomorphic markers, like marine terraces, have remained qualitative and are based on unrepeatable methods. This contrasts with the increasing resolution of digital elevation models, such as Light Detection and Ranging (LiDAR) and high-resolution bathymetric surveys. Throughout this thesis I study permanent deformation in a holistic manner: from the methods to assess deformation rates, to the processes involved in its accumulation. My research focuses particularly on two aspects: Developing methodologies to assess permanent deformation using marine terraces, and comparing permanent deformation with seismic cycle deformation patterns under different spatial scales along the M8.8 Maule earthquake (2010) rupture zone. Two methods are developed to determine deformation rates from wave-built and wave-cut terraces respectively. I selected an archetypal example of a wave-built terrace at Santa Maria Island studying its stratigraphy and recognizing sequences of reoccupation events tied with eleven radiocarbon sample ages (14C ages). I developed a method to link patterns of reoccupation with sea-level proxies by iterating relative sea level curves for a range of uplift rates. I find the best fit between relative sea-level and the stratigraphic patterns for an uplift rate of 1.5 +- 0.3 m/ka. A Graphical User Interface named TerraceM® was developed in Matlab®. This novel software tool determines shoreline angles in wave-cut terraces under different geomorphic scenarios. To validate the methods, I select test sites in areas of available high-resolution LiDAR topography along the Maule earthquake rupture zone and in California, USA. The software allows determining the 3D location of the shoreline angle, which is a proxy for the estimation of permanent deformation rates. The method is based on linear interpolations to define the paleo platform and cliff on swath profiles. The shoreline angle is then located by intersecting these interpolations. The accuracy and precision of TerraceM® was tested by comparing its results with previous assessments, and through an experiment with students in a computer lab setting at the University of Potsdam. I combined the methods developed to analyze wave-built and wave-cut terraces to assess regional patterns of permanent deformation along the (2010) Maule earthquake rupture. Wave-built terraces are tied using 12 Infra Red Stimulated luminescence ages (IRSL ages) and shoreline angles in wave-cut terraces are estimated from 170 aligned swath profiles. The comparison of coseismic slip, interseismic coupling, and permanent deformation, leads to three areas of high permanent uplift, terrace warping, and sharp fault offsets. These three areas correlate with regions of high slip and low coupling, as well as with the spatial limit of at least eight historical megathrust ruptures (M8-9.5). I propose that the zones of upwarping at Arauco and Topocalma reflect changes in frictional properties of the megathrust, which result in discrete boundaries for the propagation of mega earthquakes. To explore the application of geomorphic markers and quantitative morphology in offshore areas I performed a local study of patterns of permanent deformation inferred from hitherto unrecognized drowned shorelines at the Arauco Bay, at the southern part of the (2010) Maule earthquake rupture zone. A multidisciplinary approach, including morphometry, sedimentology, paleontology, 3D morphoscopy, and a landscape Evolution Model is used to recognize, map, and assess local rates and patterns of permanent deformation in submarine environments. Permanent deformation patterns are then reproduced using elastic models to assess deformation rates of an active submarine splay fault defined as Santa Maria Fault System. The best fit suggests a reverse structure with a slip rate of 3.7 m/ka for the last 30 ka. The register of land level changes during the earthquake cycle at Santa Maria Island suggest that most of the deformation may be accrued through splay fault reactivation during mega earthquakes, like the (2010) Maule event. Considering a recurrence time of 150 to 200 years, as determined from historical and geological observations, slip between 0.3 and 0.7 m per event would be required to account for the 3.7 m/ka millennial slip rate. However, if the SMFS slips only every ~1000 years, representing a few megathrust earthquakes, then a slip of ~3.5 m per event would be required to account for the long- term rate. Such event would be equivalent to a magnitude ~6.7 earthquake capable to generate a local tsunami. The results of this thesis provide novel and fundamental information regarding the amount of permanent deformation accrued in the crust, and the mechanisms responsible for this accumulation at millennial time-scales along the M8.8 Maule earthquake (2010) rupture zone. Furthermore, the results of this thesis highlight the application of quantitative geomorphology and the use of repeatable methods to determine permanent deformation, improve the accuracy of marine terrace assessments, and estimates of vertical deformation rates in tectonically active coastal areas. This is vital information for adequate coastal-hazard assessments and to anticipate realistic earthquake and tsunami scenarios.}, language = {en} } @article{MerzVietDungNguyenVorogushyn2016, author = {Merz, Bruno and Viet Dung Nguyen, and Vorogushyn, Sergiy}, title = {Temporal clustering of floods in Germany: Do flood-rich and flood-poor periods exist?}, series = {Journal of hydrology}, volume = {541}, journal = {Journal of hydrology}, publisher = {Elsevier}, address = {Amsterdam}, issn = {0022-1694}, doi = {10.1016/j.jhydrol.2016.07.041}, pages = {824 -- 838}, year = {2016}, abstract = {The repeated occurrence of exceptional floods within a few years, such as the Rhine floods in 1993 and 1995 and the Elbe and Danube floods in 2002 and 2013, suggests that floods in Central Europe may be organized in flood-rich and flood-poor periods. This hypothesis is studied by testing the significance of temporal clustering in flood occurrence (peak-over-threshold) time series for 68 catchments across Germany for the period 1932-2005. To assess the robustness of the results, different methods are used: Firstly, the index of dispersion, which quantifies the departure from a homogeneous Poisson process, is investigated. Further, the time-variation of the flood occurrence rate is derived by non-parametric kernel implementation and the significance of clustering is evaluated via parametric and non-parametric tests. Although the methods give consistent overall results, the specific results differ considerably. Hence, we recommend applying different methods when investigating flood clustering. For flood estimation and risk management, it is of relevance to understand whether clustering changes with flood severity and time scale. To this end, clustering is assessed for different thresholds and time scales. It is found that the majority of catchments show temporal clustering at the 5\% significance level for low thresholds and time scales of one to a few years. However, clustering decreases substantially with increasing threshold and time scale. We hypothesize that flood clustering in Germany is mainly caused by catchment memory effects along with intra- to inter-annual climate variability, and that decadal climate variability plays a minor role. (C) 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.}, language = {en} } @article{MurawskiBuergerVorogushynetal.2016, author = {Murawski, Aline and B{\"u}rger, Gerd and Vorogushyn, Sergiy and Merz, Bruno}, title = {Can local climate variability be explained by weather patterns? A multi-station evaluation for the Rhine basin}, series = {Hydrology and earth system sciences : HESS}, volume = {20}, journal = {Hydrology and earth system sciences : HESS}, publisher = {Copernicus}, address = {G{\"o}ttingen}, issn = {1027-5606}, doi = {10.5194/hess-20-4283-2016}, pages = {4283 -- 4306}, year = {2016}, abstract = {To understand past flood changes in the Rhine catchment and in particular the role of anthropogenic climate change in extreme flows, an attribution study relying on a proper GCM (general circulation model) downscaling is needed. A downscaling based on conditioning a stochastic weather generator on weather patterns is a promising approach. This approach assumes a strong link between weather patterns and local climate, and sufficient GCM skill in reproducing weather pattern climatology. These presuppositions are unprecedentedly evaluated here using 111 years of daily climate data from 490 stations in the Rhine basin and comprehensively testing the number of classification parameters and GCM weather pattern characteristics. A classification based on a combination of mean sea level pressure, temperature, and humidity from the ERA20C reanalysis of atmospheric fields over central Europe with 40 weather types was found to be the most appropriate for stratifying six local climate variables. The corresponding skill is quite diverse though, ranging from good for radiation to poor for precipitation. Especially for the latter it was apparent that pressure fields alone cannot sufficiently stratify local variability. To test the skill of the latest generation of GCMs from the CMIP5 ensemble in reproducing the frequency, seasonality, and persistence of the derived weather patterns, output from 15 GCMs is evaluated. Most GCMs are able to capture these characteristics well, but some models showed consistent deviations in all three evaluation criteria and should be excluded from further attribution analysis.}, language = {en} } @article{WangBiskabornRamischetal.2016, author = {Wang, Rong and Biskaborn, Boris and Ramisch, Arne and Ren, Jian and Zhang, Yongzhan and Gersonde, Rainer and Diekmann, Bernhard}, title = {Modern modes of provenance and dispersal of terrigenous sediments in the North Pacific and Bering Sea: implications and perspectives for palaeoenvironmental reconstructions}, series = {Geo-marine letters : an international journal of marine geology}, volume = {36}, journal = {Geo-marine letters : an international journal of marine geology}, publisher = {Springer}, address = {New York}, issn = {0276-0460}, doi = {10.1007/s00367-016-0445-7}, pages = {259 -- 270}, year = {2016}, abstract = {During expedition 202 aboard the RV Sonne in 2009, 39 seafloor surface sediment sites were sampled over a wide sector of the North Pacific and adjoining Bering Sea. The data served to infer land-ocean linkages of terrigenous sediment supply in terms of major sources and modes of sediment transport within an over-regional context. This is based on an integrated approach dealing with grain-size analysis, bulk mineralogy and clay mineralogy in combination with statistical data evaluation (end-member modelling of grain-size data, fuzzy cluster analysis of mineralogical data). The findings on clay mineralogy served to update those of earlier work extracted from the literature. Today, two processes of terrigenous sediment supply prevail in the study area: far-distance aeolian sediment supply to the pelagic North Pacific, and hemipelagic sediment dispersal from nearby land sources via ocean currents along the continental margins and island arcs. Aeolian particles show the finest grain sizes (clay and fine silt), whereas hemipelagic sediments have high abundances of coarse silt. Exposed sites on seamounts and the continental slope are partly swept by strong currents, leading to residual enrichment of fine sand. Four sediment sources can be distinguished on the basis of distinct index minerals revealed by statistical data analysis: dust plumes from central Asia (quartz, illite), altered materials from the volcanic regions of Kamchatka and the Aleutian Arc (smectite), detritus from the Alaskan Cordillera (chlorite, hornblende), and fluvial detritus from far-eastern Siberia and the Alaska mainland (quartz, feldspar, illite). These findings confirm those of former studies but considerably expand the geographic range of this suite of proxies as far south as 39A degrees N in the open North Pacific. The present integrated methodological approach proved useful in identifying the major modern processes of terrigenous sediment supply to the study region. This aspect deserves attention in the selection of sediment core sites for future palaeoenvironmental reconstructions related to aeolian and glacial dynamics, as well as the recognition of palaeo-ocean circulation patterns in general.}, language = {en} } @phdthesis{Falter2016, author = {Falter, Daniela}, title = {A novel approach for large-scale flood risk assessments}, url = {http://nbn-resolving.de/urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-90239}, school = {Universit{\"a}t Potsdam}, pages = {95}, year = {2016}, abstract = {In the past, floods were basically managed by flood control mechanisms. The focus was set on the reduction of flood hazard. The potential consequences were of minor interest. Nowadays river flooding is increasingly seen from the risk perspective, including possible consequences. Moreover, the large-scale picture of flood risk became increasingly important for disaster management planning, national risk developments and the (re-) insurance industry. Therefore, it is widely accepted that risk-orientated flood management ap-proaches at the basin-scale are needed. However, large-scale flood risk assessment methods for areas of several 10,000 km² are still in early stages. Traditional flood risk assessments are performed reach wise, assuming constant probabilities for the entire reach or basin. This might be helpful on a local basis, but where large-scale patterns are important this approach is of limited use. Assuming a T-year flood (e.g. 100 years) for the entire river network is unrealistic and would lead to an overestimation of flood risk at the large scale. Due to the lack of damage data, additionally, the probability of peak discharge or rainfall is usually used as proxy for damage probability to derive flood risk. With a continuous and long term simulation of the entire flood risk chain, the spatial variability of probabilities could be consider and flood risk could be directly derived from damage data in a consistent way. The objective of this study is the development and application of a full flood risk chain, appropriate for the large scale and based on long term and continuous simulation. The novel approach of 'derived flood risk based on continuous simulations' is introduced, where the synthetic discharge time series is used as input into flood impact models and flood risk is directly derived from the resulting synthetic damage time series. The bottleneck at this scale is the hydrodynamic simu-lation. To find suitable hydrodynamic approaches for the large-scale a benchmark study with simplified 2D hydrodynamic models was performed. A raster-based approach with inertia formulation and a relatively high resolution of 100 m in combination with a fast 1D channel routing model was chosen. To investigate the suitability of the continuous simulation of a full flood risk chain for the large scale, all model parts were integrated into a new framework, the Regional Flood Model (RFM). RFM consists of the hydrological model SWIM, a 1D hydrodynamic river network model, a 2D raster based inundation model and the flood loss model FELMOps+r. Subsequently, the model chain was applied to the Elbe catchment, one of the largest catchments in Germany. For the proof-of-concept, a continuous simulation was per-formed for the period of 1990-2003. Results were evaluated / validated as far as possible with available observed data in this period. Although each model part introduced its own uncertainties, results and runtime were generally found to be adequate for the purpose of continuous simulation at the large catchment scale. Finally, RFM was applied to a meso-scale catchment in the east of Germany to firstly perform a flood risk assessment with the novel approach of 'derived flood risk assessment based on continuous simulations'. Therefore, RFM was driven by long term synthetic meteorological input data generated by a weather generator. Thereby, a virtual time series of climate data of 100 x 100 years was generated and served as input to RFM providing subsequent 100 x 100 years of spatially consistent river discharge series, inundation patterns and damage values. On this basis, flood risk curves and expected annual damage could be derived directly from damage data, providing a large-scale picture of flood risk. In contrast to traditional flood risk analysis, where homogenous return periods are assumed for the entire basin, the presented approach provides a coherent large-scale picture of flood risk. The spatial variability of occurrence probability is respected. Additionally, data and methods are consistent. Catchment and floodplain processes are repre-sented in a holistic way. Antecedent catchment conditions are implicitly taken into account, as well as physical processes like storage effects, flood attenuation or channel-floodplain interactions and related damage influencing effects. Finally, the simulation of a virtual period of 100 x 100 years and consequently large data set on flood loss events enabled the calculation of flood risk directly from damage distributions. Problems associated with the transfer of probabilities in rainfall or peak runoff to probabilities in damage, as often used in traditional approaches, are bypassed. RFM and the 'derived flood risk approach based on continuous simulations' has the potential to provide flood risk statements for national planning, re-insurance aspects or other questions where spatially consistent, large-scale assessments are required.}, language = {en} } @article{KreibichBottoMerzetal.2016, author = {Kreibich, Heidi and Botto, Anna and Merz, Bruno and Schr{\"o}ter, Kai}, title = {Probabilistic, Multivariable Flood Loss Modeling on the Mesoscale with BT-FLEMO}, series = {Risk analysis}, volume = {37}, journal = {Risk analysis}, number = {4}, publisher = {Wiley}, address = {Hoboken}, issn = {0272-4332}, doi = {10.1111/risa.12650}, pages = {774 -- 787}, year = {2016}, abstract = {Flood loss modeling is an important component for risk analyses and decision support in flood risk management. Commonly, flood loss models describe complex damaging processes by simple, deterministic approaches like depth-damage functions and are associated with large uncertainty. To improve flood loss estimation and to provide quantitative information about the uncertainty associated with loss modeling, a probabilistic, multivariable Bagging decision Tree Flood Loss Estimation MOdel (BT-FLEMO) for residential buildings was developed. The application of BT-FLEMO provides a probability distribution of estimated losses to residential buildings per municipality. BT-FLEMO was applied and validated at the mesoscale in 19 municipalities that were affected during the 2002 flood by the River Mulde in Saxony, Germany. Validation was undertaken on the one hand via a comparison with six deterministic loss models, including both depth-damage functions and multivariable models. On the other hand, the results were compared with official loss data. BT-FLEMO outperforms deterministic, univariable, and multivariable models with regard to model accuracy, although the prediction uncertainty remains high. An important advantage of BT-FLEMO is the quantification of prediction uncertainty. The probability distribution of loss estimates by BT-FLEMO well represents the variation range of loss estimates of the other models in the case study.}, language = {en} } @phdthesis{Nied2016, author = {Nied, Manuela}, title = {The role of soil moisture and weather patterns for flood occurrence and characteristics at the river basin scale}, url = {http://nbn-resolving.de/urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-94612}, school = {Universit{\"a}t Potsdam}, pages = {XVI, 86}, year = {2016}, abstract = {Flood generation at the scale of large river basins is triggered by the interaction of the hydrological pre-conditions and the meteorological event conditions at different spatial and temporal scales. This interaction controls diverse flood generating processes and results in floods varying in magnitude and extent, duration as well as socio-economic consequences. For a process-based understanding of the underlying cause-effect relationships, systematic approaches are required. These approaches have to cover the complete causal flood chain, including the flood triggering meteorological event in combination with the hydrological (pre-)conditions in the catchment, runoff generation, flood routing, possible floodplain inundation and finally flood losses. In this thesis, a comprehensive probabilistic process-based understanding of the causes and effects of floods is advanced. The spatial and temporal dynamics of flood events as well as the geophysical processes involved in the causal flood chain are revealed and the systematic interconnections within the flood chain are deciphered by means of the classification of their associated causes and effects. This is achieved by investigating the role of the hydrological pre-conditions and the meteorological event conditions with respect to flood occurrence, flood processes and flood characteristics as well as their interconnections at the river basin scale. Broadening the knowledge about flood triggers, which up to now has been limited to linking large-scale meteorological conditions to flood occurrence, the influence of large-scale pre-event hydrological conditions on flood initiation is investigated. Using the Elbe River basin as an example, a classification of soil moisture, a key variable of pre-event conditions, is developed and a probabilistic link between patterns of soil moisture and flood occurrence is established. The soil moisture classification is applied to continuously simulated soil moisture data which is generated using the semi-distributed conceptual rainfall-runoff model SWIM. Applying successively a principal component analysis and a cluster analysis, days of similar soil moisture patterns are identified in the period November 1951 to October 2003. The investigation of flood triggers is complemented by including meteorological conditions described by a common weather pattern classification that represents the main modes of atmospheric state variability. The newly developed soil moisture classification thereby provides the basis to study the combined impact of hydrological pre-conditions and large-scale meteorological event conditions on flood occurrence at the river basin scale. A process-based understanding of flood generation and its associated probabilities is attained by classifying observed flood events into process-based flood types such as snowmelt floods or long-rain floods. Subsequently, the flood types are linked to the soil moisture and weather patterns. Further understanding of the processes is gained by modeling of the complete causal flood chain, incorporating a rainfall-runoff model, a 1D/2D hydrodynamic model and a flood loss model. A reshuffling approach based on weather patterns and the month of their occurrence is developed to generate synthetic data fields of meteorological conditions, which drive the model chain, in order to increase the flood sample size. From the large number of simulated flood events, the impact of hydro-meteorological conditions on various flood characteristics is detected through the analysis of conditional cumulative distribution functions and regression trees. The results show the existence of catchment-scale soil moisture patterns, which comprise of large-scale seasonal wetting and drying components as well as of smaller-scale variations related to spatially heterogeneous catchment processes. Soil moisture patterns frequently occurring before the onset of floods are identified. In winter, floods are initiated by catchment-wide high soil moisture, whereas in summer the flood-initiating soil moisture patterns are diverse and the soil moisture conditions are less stable in time. The combined study of both soil moisture and weather patterns shows that the flood favoring hydro-meteorological patterns as well as their interactions vary seasonally. In the analysis period, 18 \% of the weather patterns only result in a flood in the case of preceding soil saturation. The classification of 82 past events into flood types reveals seasonally varying flood processes that can be linked to hydro-meteorological patterns. For instance, the highest flood potential for long-rain floods is associated with a weather pattern that is often detected in the presence of so-called 'Vb' cyclones. Rain-on-snow and snowmelt floods are associated with westerly and north-westerly wind directions. The flood characteristics vary among the flood types and can be reproduced by the applied model chain. In total, 5970 events are simulated. They reproduce the observed event characteristics between September 1957 and August 2002 and provide information on flood losses. A regression tree analysis relates the flood processes of the simulated events to the hydro-meteorological (pre-)event conditions and highlights the fact that flood magnitude is primarily controlled by the meteorological event, whereas flood extent is primarily controlled by the soil moisture conditions. Describing flood occurrence, processes and characteristics as a function of hydro-meteorological patterns, this thesis is part of a paradigm shift towards a process-based understanding of floods. The results highlight that soil moisture patterns as well as weather patterns are not only beneficial to a probabilistic conception of flood initiation but also provide information on the involved flood processes and the resulting flood characteristics.}, language = {en} } @article{GianniotisSchnoerrMolkenthinetal.2016, author = {Gianniotis, Nikolaos and Schnoerr, Christoph and Molkenthin, Christian and Bora, Sanjay Singh}, title = {Approximate variational inference based on a finite sample of Gaussian latent variables}, series = {Pattern Analysis \& Applications}, volume = {19}, journal = {Pattern Analysis \& Applications}, publisher = {Springer}, address = {New York}, issn = {1433-7541}, doi = {10.1007/s10044-015-0496-9}, pages = {475 -- 485}, year = {2016}, abstract = {Variational methods are employed in situations where exact Bayesian inference becomes intractable due to the difficulty in performing certain integrals. Typically, variational methods postulate a tractable posterior and formulate a lower bound on the desired integral to be approximated, e.g. marginal likelihood. The lower bound is then optimised with respect to its free parameters, the so-called variational parameters. However, this is not always possible as for certain integrals it is very challenging (or tedious) to come up with a suitable lower bound. Here, we propose a simple scheme that overcomes some of the awkward cases where the usual variational treatment becomes difficult. The scheme relies on a rewriting of the lower bound on the model log-likelihood. We demonstrate the proposed scheme on a number of synthetic and real examples, as well as on a real geophysical model for which the standard variational approaches are inapplicable.}, language = {en} } @phdthesis{Molkenthin2016, author = {Molkenthin, Christian}, title = {Sensitivity analysis in seismic Hazard assessment using algorithmic differentiation}, school = {Universit{\"a}t Potsdam}, pages = {114}, year = {2016}, language = {en} } @article{TianCaoDallmeyeretal.2016, author = {Tian, Fang and Cao, Xianyong and Dallmeyer, Anne and Ni, Jian and Zhao, Yan and Wang, Yongbo and Herzschuh, Ulrike}, title = {Quantitative woody cover reconstructions from eastern continental Asia of the last 22 kyr reveal strong regional peculiarities}, series = {Quaternary science reviews : the international multidisciplinary research and review journal}, volume = {137}, journal = {Quaternary science reviews : the international multidisciplinary research and review journal}, publisher = {Elsevier}, address = {Oxford}, issn = {0277-3791}, doi = {10.1016/j.quascirev.2016.02.001}, pages = {33 -- 44}, year = {2016}, abstract = {We present a calibration-set based on modern pollen and satellite-based Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR) observations of woody cover (including needleleaved, broadleaved and total tree cover) in eastern continental Asia, which shows good performance under cross-validation with the modern analogue technique (all the coefficients of determination between observed and predicted values are greater than 0.65). The calibration-set is used to reconstruct woody cover from a taxonomically harmonized and temporally standardized fossil pollen dataset (including 274 cores) with 500-year resolution over the last 22 kyr. The spatial range of forest has not noticeably changed in eastern continental Asia during the last 22 kyr, although woody cover has, especially at the margin of the eastern Tibetan Plateau and in the forest-steppe transition area of north-central China. Vegetation was sparse during the LGM in the present forested regions, but woody cover increased markedly at the beginning of the Bolling/Allerod period (B/A; ca. 14.5 ka BP) and again at the beginning of the Holocene (ca. 11.5 ka BP), and is related to the enhanced strength of the East Asian Summer Monsoon. Forest flourished in the mid Holocene (ca. 8 ka BP) possibly due to favourable climatic conditions. In contrast, cover was stable in southern China (high cover) and arid central Asia (very low cover) throughout the investigated period. Forest cover increased in the north-eastern part of China during the Holocene. Comparisons of these regional pollen-based results with simulated forest cover from runs of a global climate model (for 9, 6 and 0 ka BP (ECHAM5/JSBACH similar to 1.125 degrees spatial resolution)) reveal many similarities in temporal change. The Holocene woody cover history of eastern continental Asia is different from that of other regions, likely controlled by different climatic variables, i.e. moisture in eastern continental Asia; temperature in northern Eurasia and North America. (C) 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.}, language = {en} } @article{KruseWieczorekJeltschetal.2016, author = {Kruse, Stefan and Wieczorek, Mareike and Jeltsch, Florian and Herzschuh, Ulrike}, title = {Treeline dynamics in Siberia under changing climates as inferred from an individual-based model for Larix}, series = {Ecological modelling : international journal on ecological modelling and engineering and systems ecolog}, volume = {338}, journal = {Ecological modelling : international journal on ecological modelling and engineering and systems ecolog}, publisher = {Elsevier}, address = {Amsterdam}, issn = {0304-3800}, doi = {10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2016.08.003}, pages = {101 -- 121}, year = {2016}, language = {en} } @article{SchirrmeisterMeyerAndreevetal.2016, author = {Schirrmeister, Lutz and Meyer, Hanno and Andreev, Andrei and Wetterich, Sebastian and Kienast, Frank and Bobrov, Anatoly and Fuchs, Margret and Sierralta, Melanie and Herzschuh, Ulrike}, title = {Late Quaternary paleoenvironmental records from the Chatanika River valley near Fairbanks (Alaska)}, series = {Quaternary science reviews : the international multidisciplinary research and review journal}, volume = {147}, journal = {Quaternary science reviews : the international multidisciplinary research and review journal}, publisher = {Elsevier}, address = {Oxford}, issn = {0277-3791}, doi = {10.1016/j.quascirev.2016.02.009}, pages = {259 -- 278}, year = {2016}, abstract = {Perennially-frozen deposits are considered as excellent paleoenvironmental archives similar to lacustrine, deep marine, and glacier records because of the long-term and good preservation of fossil records under stable permafrost conditions. A permafrost tunnel in the Vault Creek Valley (Chatanika River Valley, near Fairbanks) exposes a sequence of frozen deposits and ground ice that provides a comprehensive set of proxies to reconstruct the late Quaternary environmental history of Interior Alaska. The multi-proxy approach includes different dating techniques (radiocarbon-accelerator mass spectrometry [AMS C-14], optically stimulated luminescence [OSL], thorium/uranium radioisotope disequilibria [Th-230/U]), as well as methods of sedimentology, paleoecology, hydrochemistry, and stable isotope geochemistry of ground ice. The studied sequence consists of 36-m-thick late Quaternary deposits above schistose bedrock. Main portions of the sequence accumulated during the early and middle Wisconsin periods. The lowermost unit A consists of about 9-m-thick ice-bonded fluvial gravels with sand and peat lenses. A late Sangamon (MIS 5a) age of unit A is assumed. Spruce forest with birch, larch, and some shrubby alder dominated the vegetation. High presence of Sphagnum spores and Cyperaceae pollen points to mires in the Vault Creek Valley. The overlying unit B consists of 10-m-thick alternating fluvial gravels, loess-like silt, and sand layers, penetrated by small ice wedges. OSL dates support a stadial early Wisconsin (MIS 4) age of unit B. Pollen and plant macrofossil data point to spruce forests with some birch interspersed with wetlands around the site. The following unit C is composed of 15-m-thick ice-rich loess-like and organic-rich silt with fossil bones and large ice wedges. Unit C formed during the interstadial mid-Wisconsin (MIS 3) and stadial late Wisconsin (MIS 2) as indicated by radiocarbon ages. Post-depositional slope processes significantly deformed both, ground ice and sediments of unit C. Pollen data show that spruce forests and wetlands dominated the area. The macrofossil remains of Picea, Larix, and Alnus incana ssp. tenuifolia also prove the existence of boreal coniferous forests during the mid-Wisconsin interstadial, which were replaced by treeless tundra-steppe vegetation during the late Wisconsin stadial. Unit C is discordantly overlain by the 2-m-thick late Holocene deposits of unit D. The pollen record of unit D indicates boreal forest vegetation similar to the modern one. The permafrost record from the Vault Creek tunnel reflects more than 90 ka of periglacial landscape dynamics triggered by fluvial and eolian accumulation, and formation of ice-wedge polygons and post depositional deformation by slope processes. The record represents a typical Wisconsin valley-bottom facies in Central Alaska. (C) 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.}, language = {en} } @article{LangerWestermannBoikeetal.2016, author = {Langer, M. and Westermann, S. and Boike, Julia and Kirillin, Georgiy and Grosse, Guido and Peng, S. and Krinner, G.}, title = {Rapid degradation of permafrost underneath waterbodies in tundra landscapes-Toward a representation of thermokarst in land surface models}, series = {Journal of geophysical research : Earth surface}, volume = {121}, journal = {Journal of geophysical research : Earth surface}, publisher = {American Geophysical Union}, address = {Washington}, issn = {2169-9003}, doi = {10.1002/2016JF003956}, pages = {2446 -- 2470}, year = {2016}, abstract = {Waterbodies such as lakes and ponds are abundant in vast Arctic landscapes and strongly affect the thermal state of the surrounding permafrost. In order to gain a better understanding of the impact of small-and medium-sized waterbodies on permafrost and the formation of thermokarst, a land surface model was developed that can represent the vertical and lateral thermal interactions between waterbodies and permafrost. The model was validated using temperature measurements from two typical waterbodies located within the Lena River delta in northern Siberia. Impact simulations were performed under current climate conditions as well as under a moderate and a strong climate-warming scenario. The performed simulations demonstrate that small waterbodies can rise the sediment surface temperature by more than 10 degrees C and accelerate permafrost thaw by a factor of between 4 and 5. Up to 70\% of this additional heat flux into the ground was found to be dissipated into the surrounding permafrost by lateral ground heat flux in the case of small, shallow, and isolated waterbodies. Under moderate climate warming, the lateral heat flux was found to reduce permafrost degradation underneath waterbodies by a factor of 2. Under stronger climatic warming, however, the lateral heat flux was too small to prevent rapid permafrost degradation. The lateral heat flux was also found to strongly impede the formation of thermokarst. Despite this stabilizing effect, our simulations have demonstrated that underneath shallow waterbodies (<1 m), thermokarst initiation happens 30 to 40 years earlier than in simulations without preexisting waterbody.}, language = {en} } @article{KlemmHerzschuhPestryakova2016, author = {Klemm, Juliane and Herzschuh, Ulrike and Pestryakova, Luidmila Agafyevna}, title = {Vegetation, climate and lake changes over the last 7000 years at the boreal treeline in north-central Siberia}, series = {Quaternary science reviews : the international multidisciplinary research and review journal}, volume = {147}, journal = {Quaternary science reviews : the international multidisciplinary research and review journal}, publisher = {Elsevier}, address = {Oxford}, issn = {0277-3791}, doi = {10.1016/j.quascirev.2015.08.015}, pages = {422 -- 434}, year = {2016}, language = {en} } @article{RudayaNazarovaNovenkoetal.2016, author = {Rudaya, Natalia and Nazarova, Larisa B. and Novenko, Elena and Andreev, Andrei and Kalugin, Ivan and Daryin, Andrei and Babich, Valery and Li, Hong-Chun and Shilov, Pavel}, title = {Quantitative reconstructions of mid- to late holocene climate and vegetation in the north-eastern altai mountains recorded in lake teletskoye}, series = {Global and planetary change}, volume = {141}, journal = {Global and planetary change}, publisher = {Elsevier}, address = {Amsterdam}, issn = {0921-8181}, doi = {10.1016/j.gloplacha.2016.04.002}, pages = {12 -- 24}, year = {2016}, abstract = {We report the first high-resolution (20-50 years) mid- to late Holocene pollen records from Lake Teletskoye, the largest lake in the Altai Mountains, in south-eastern West Siberia. Generally, the mid- to late Holocene (the last 4250 years) vegetation of the north-eastern Altai, as recorded in two studied sediment cores, is characterised by Siberian pine-spruce-fir forests that are similar to those of the present day. A relatively cool and dry interval with July temperatures lower than those of today occurred between 3.9 and 3.6 ka BP. The widespread distribution of open, steppe-like communities with Artemisia, Chenopodiaceae and Cyperaceae reflects maximum deforestation during this interval. After ca. 3.5 ka BP, the coniferous mountain taiga spread significantly, with maximum woody coverage and taiga biome scores between ca. 2.7 and 1.6 ka BP. This coincides well with the highest July temperature (approximately 1 degrees C higher than today) intervals. A short period of cooling about 13-1.4 ka BP could have been triggered by the increased volcanic activity recorded across the Northern Hemisphere. A new period of cooling started around 1100-1150 CE, with the minimum July temperatures occurring between 1450 and 1800 CE. (C) 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.}, language = {en} } @article{SchneiderWetterichSchirrmeisteretal.2016, author = {Schneider, Andrea and Wetterich, Sebastian and Schirrmeister, Lutz and Herzschuh, Ulrike and Meyer, Hanno and Pestryakova, Luidmila Agafyevna}, title = {Freshwater ostracods (Crustacea) and environmental variability of polygon ponds in the tundra of the Indigirka Lowland, north-east Siberia}, series = {Polar research : a Norwegian journal of Polar research}, volume = {35}, journal = {Polar research : a Norwegian journal of Polar research}, publisher = {Society of Exploration Geophysicists}, address = {Abingdon}, issn = {0800-0395}, doi = {10.3402/polar.v35.25225}, pages = {22}, year = {2016}, abstract = {Freshwater ostracods (Crustacea, Ostracoda) are valuable biological indicators. In Arctic environments, their habitat conditions are barely known and the abundance and diversity of ostracods is documented only in scattered records with incomplete ecological characterization. To determine the taxonomic range of ostracod assemblages and their habitat conditions in polygon ponds in the Indigirka Lowland, north-east Siberia, we collected more than 100 living ostracod individuals per site with a plankton net (mesh size 65 mm) and an exhaustor system from 27 water bodies and studied them in the context of substrate and hydrochemical data. During the summer of 2011, a single pond site and its ostracod population was selected for special study. This first record of the ostracod fauna in the Indigirka Lowland comprises eight species and three additional taxa. Fabaeformiscandona krochini and F. groenlandica were documented for the first time in continental Siberia. Repeated sampling of a low-centre polygon pond yielded insights into the population dynamics of F. pedata. We identified air temperature and precipitation as the main external drivers of water temperatures, water levels, ion concentrations and water stable isotope composition on diurnal and seasonal scales.}, language = {en} } @article{HerzschuhBirksLaeppleetal.2016, author = {Herzschuh, Ulrike and Birks, H. John B. and Laepple, Thomas and Andreev, Andrei and Melles, Martin and Brigham-Grette, Julie}, title = {Glacial legacies on interglacial vegetation at the Pliocene-Pleistocene transition in NE Asia}, series = {Nature Communications}, volume = {7}, journal = {Nature Communications}, publisher = {Nature Publ. Group}, address = {London}, issn = {2041-1723}, doi = {10.1038/ncomms11967}, pages = {11}, year = {2016}, abstract = {Broad-scale climate control of vegetation is widely assumed. Vegetation-climate lags are generally thought to have lasted no more than a few centuries. Here our palaeoecological study challenges this concept over glacial-interglacial timescales. Through multivariate analyses of pollen assemblages from Lake El'gygytgyn, Russian Far East and other data we show that interglacial vegetation during the Plio-Pleistocene transition mainly reflects conditions of the preceding glacial instead of contemporary interglacial climate. Vegetation-climate disequilibrium may persist for several millennia, related to the combined effects of permafrost persistence, distant glacial refugia and fire. In contrast, no effects from the preceding interglacial on glacial vegetation are detected. We propose that disequilibrium was stronger during the Plio-Pleistocene transition than during the Mid-Pliocene Warm Period when, in addition to climate, herbivory was important. By analogy to the past, we suggest today's widespread larch ecosystem on permafrost is not in climate equilibrium. Vegetation-based reconstructions of interglacial climates used to assess atmospheric CO2-temperature relationships may thus yield misleading simulations of past global climate sensitivity.}, language = {en} } @article{ZibulskiHerzschuhPestryakova2016, author = {Zibulski, Romy and Herzschuh, Ulrike and Pestryakova, Luidmila Agafyevna}, title = {Vegetation patterns along micro-relief and vegetation type transects in polygonal landscapes of the Siberian Arctic}, series = {Journal of vegetation science}, volume = {27}, journal = {Journal of vegetation science}, publisher = {Wiley-Blackwell}, address = {Hoboken}, issn = {1100-9233}, doi = {10.1111/jvs.12356}, pages = {377 -- 386}, year = {2016}, abstract = {QuestionHow important is the effect of micro-relief and vegetation type on the characteristics of vascular plants and bryophytes in low-centred polygons? LocationSiberian Arctic, Russia. MethodsEight low-centred polygons in northern Siberia were surveyed for vegetation along transects running from the rim to the pond via the rim-pond transition of each polygon and across a vegetation type gradient from open forest to tundra. ResultsThe cover of vascular plants and bryophytes displays no significant differences between the rim and rim-pond transition but is significantly lower in the pond section of the polygons. Alpha-diversity of vascular plants decreases strongly from rim to pond, whereas bryophyte diversity in pond plots is significantly distinct from the rim and the rim-pond transition. There is no clear trend in cover for either plant group along the vegetation type transect and only a weak trend in -diversity. However, both gradients are reflected in the compositional turnover. The applied indicator species analysis identified taxa characteristic of certain environmental conditions. Among others, we found vascular plants primarily characteristic of the rim and bryophyte taxa characteristic of each micro-relief level and vegetation type. ConclusionsThe observed gradual pattern in -diversity and composition of polygonal vegetation suggests that micro-relief is the main driver of changes in the vegetation composition, while vegetation type and the related forest cover change are of subordinate importance for polygonal vegetation patterns along the Siberian tree line.}, language = {en} } @article{LiLiuHerzschuhetal.2016, author = {Li, Kai and Liu, Xingqi and Herzschuh, Ulrike and Wang, Yongbo}, title = {Rapid climate fluctuations over the past millennium: evidence from a lacustrine record of Basomtso Lake, southeastern Tibetan Plateau}, series = {Scientific reports}, volume = {6}, journal = {Scientific reports}, publisher = {Nature Publ. Group}, address = {London}, issn = {2045-2322}, doi = {10.1038/srep24806}, pages = {9}, year = {2016}, abstract = {Abrupt climate changes and fluctuations over short time scales are superimposed on long-term climate changes. Understanding rapid climate fluctuations at the decadal time scale over the past millennium will enhance our understanding of patterns of climate variability and aid in forecasting climate changes in the future. In this study, climate changes on the southeastern Tibetan Plateau over the past millennium were determined from a 4.82-m-long sediment core from Basomtso Lake. At the centennial time scale, the Medieval Climate Anomaly (MCA), Little Ice Age (LIA) and Current Warm Period (CWP) are distinct in the Basomtso region. Rapid climate fluctuations inferred from five episodes with higher sediment input and likely warmer conditions, as well as seven episodes with lower sediment input and likely colder conditions, were well preserved in our record. These episodes with higher and lower sediment input are characterized by abrupt climate changes and short time durations. Spectral analysis indicates that the climate variations at the centennial scale on the southeastern Tibetan Plateau are influenced by solar activity during the past millennium.}, language = {en} } @phdthesis{Niemeyer2016, author = {Niemeyer, Bastian}, title = {Vegetation reconstruction and assessment of plant diversity at the treeline ecotone in northern Siberia}, school = {Universit{\"a}t Potsdam}, pages = {146}, year = {2016}, language = {en} } @article{DerrasBardCotton2016, author = {Derras, Boumediene and Bard, Pierre-Yves and Cotton, Fabrice}, title = {Site-Condition Proxies, Ground Motion Variability, and Data-Driven GMPEs: Insights from the NGA-West2 and RESORCE Data Sets}, series = {Earthquake spectra : the professional journal of the Earthquake Engineering Research Institute}, volume = {32}, journal = {Earthquake spectra : the professional journal of the Earthquake Engineering Research Institute}, publisher = {Earthquake Engineering Research Institute}, address = {Oakland}, issn = {8755-2930}, doi = {10.1193/060215EQS082M}, pages = {2027 -- 2056}, year = {2016}, abstract = {We compare the ability of various site-condition proxies (SCPs) to reduce the aleatory variability of ground motion prediction equations (GMPEs). Three SCPs (measured V-S30, inferred V-S30, local topographic slope) and two accelerometric databases (RESORCE and NGA-West2) are considered. An artificial neural network (ANN) approach including a random-effect procedure is used to derive GMPEs setting the relationship between peak ground acceleration (PGA), peak ground velocity (PGV), pseudo-spectral acceleration [PSA(T)], and explanatory variables (M-w, R-JB, and V-S30 or Slope). The analysis is performed using both discrete site classes and continuous proxy values. All "non-measured" SCPs exhibit a rather poor performance in reducing aleatory variability, compared to the better performance of measured V-S30. A new, fully data-driven GMPE based on the NGA-West2 is then derived, with an aleatory variability value depending on the quality of the SCP. It proves very consistent with previous GMPEs built on the same data set. Measuring V-S30 allows for benefit from an aleatory variability reduction up to 15\%.}, language = {en} } @article{YepesAudinAlvaradoetal.2016, author = {Yepes, Hugo and Audin, Laurence and Alvarado, Alexandra and Beauval, Celine and Aguilar, Jorge and Font, Yvonne and Cotton, Fabrice}, title = {A new view for the geodynamics of Ecuador: Implication in seismogenic source definition and seismic hazard assessment}, series = {Tectonics}, volume = {35}, journal = {Tectonics}, publisher = {American Geophysical Union}, address = {Washington}, issn = {0278-7407}, doi = {10.1002/2015TC003941}, pages = {1249 -- 1279}, year = {2016}, abstract = {A new view of Ecuador's complex geodynamics has been developed in the course of modeling seismic source zones for probabilistic seismic hazard analysis. This study focuses on two aspects of the plates' interaction at a continental scale: (a) age-related differences in rheology between Farallon and Nazca plates—marked by the Grijalva rifted margin and its inland projection—as they subduct underneath central Ecuador, and (b) the rapidly changing convergence obliquity resulting from the convex shape of the South American northwestern continental margin. Both conditions satisfactorily explain several characteristics of the observed seismicity and of the interseismic coupling. Intermediate-depth seismicity reveals a severe flexure in the Farallon slab as it dips and contorts at depth, originating the El Puyo seismic cluster. The two slabs position and geometry below continental Ecuador also correlate with surface expressions observable in the local and regional geology and tectonics. The interseismic coupling is weak and shallow south of the Grijalva rifted margin and increases northward, with a heterogeneous pattern locally associated to the Carnegie ridge subduction. High convergence obliquity is responsible for the North Andean Block northeastward movement along localized fault systems. The Cosanga and Pallatanga fault segments of the North Andean Block-South American boundary concentrate most of the seismic moment release in continental Ecuador. Other inner block faults located along the western border of the inter-Andean Depression also show a high rate of moderate-size earthquake production. Finally, a total of 19 seismic source zones were modeled in accordance with the proposed geodynamic and neotectonic scheme.}, language = {en} } @article{DongesSchleussnerSiegmundetal.2016, author = {Donges, Jonathan and Schleussner, C. -F. and Siegmund, Jonatan F. and Donner, Reik Volker}, title = {Event coincidence analysis for quantifying statistical interrelationships between event time series}, series = {European physical journal special topics}, volume = {225}, journal = {European physical journal special topics}, publisher = {Springer}, address = {Heidelberg}, issn = {1951-6355}, doi = {10.1140/epjst/e2015-50233-y}, pages = {471 -- 487}, year = {2016}, abstract = {Studying event time series is a powerful approach for analyzing the dynamics of complex dynamical systems in many fields of science. In this paper, we describe the method of event coincidence analysis to provide a framework for quantifying the strength, directionality and time lag of statistical interrelationships between event series. Event coincidence analysis allows to formulate and test null hypotheses on the origin of the observed interrelationships including tests based on Poisson processes or, more generally, stochastic point processes with a prescribed inter-event time distribution and other higher-order properties. Applying the framework to country-level observational data yields evidence that flood events have acted as triggers of epidemic outbreaks globally since the 1950s. Facing projected future changes in the statistics of climatic extreme events, statistical techniques such as event coincidence analysis will be relevant for investigating the impacts of anthropogenic climate change on human societies and ecosystems worldwide.}, language = {en} } @article{TilmannZhangMorenoetal.2016, author = {Tilmann, F. and Zhang, Y. and Moreno, M. and Saul, J. and Eckelmann, F. and Palo, M. and Deng, Z. and Babeyko, Andrey and Chen, K. and B{\´a}ez, Juan Carlos and Schurr, B. and Wang, R. and Dahm, Torsten}, title = {The 2015 Illapel earthquake, central Chile: A type case for a characteristic earthquake?}, series = {Geophysical research letters}, volume = {43}, journal = {Geophysical research letters}, publisher = {American Geophysical Union}, address = {Washington}, issn = {0094-8276}, doi = {10.1002/2015GL066963}, pages = {574 -- 583}, year = {2016}, abstract = {On 16 September 2015, the M-W = 8.2 Illapel megathrust earthquake ruptured the Central Chilean margin. Combining inversions of displacement measurements and seismic waveforms with high frequency (HF) teleseismic backprojection, we derive a comprehensive description of the rupture, which also predicts deep ocean tsunami wave heights. We further determine moment tensors and obtain accurate depth estimates for the aftershock sequence. The earthquake nucleated near the coast but then propagated to the north and updip, attaining a peak slip of 5-6 m. In contrast, HF seismic radiation is mostly emitted downdip of the region of intense slip and arrests earlier than the long period rupture, indicating smooth slip along the shallow plate interface in the final phase. A superficially similar earthquake in 1943 with a similar aftershock zone had a much shorter source time function, which matches the duration of HF seismic radiation in the recent event, indicating that the 1943 event lacked the shallow slip.}, language = {en} } @article{JaraMunozMelnickStrecker2016, author = {Jara Mu{\~n}oz, Julius and Melnick, Daniel and Strecker, Manfred}, title = {TerraceM: A MATLAB (R) tool to analyze marine and lacustrine terraces using high-resolution topography}, series = {Geosphere}, volume = {12}, journal = {Geosphere}, publisher = {American Institute of Physics}, address = {Boulder}, issn = {1553-040X}, doi = {10.1130/GES01208.1}, pages = {176 -- 195}, year = {2016}, abstract = {High-resolution topographic data greatly facilitate the remote identification of geomorphic features, furnishing valuable information concerning surface processes and characterization of reference markers for quantifying tectonic deformation. Marine terraces have been used as long baseline geodetic markers of relative past sea-level positions, reflecting the interplay between vertical crustal movements and sea-level oscillations. Uplift rates may be determined from the terrace age and the elevation of its shoreline angle, a geomorphic feature that can be correlated with past sea-levels positions. A precise definition of the shoreline angle in time and space is essential to obtain reliable uplift rates with coherent spatial correlation. To improve our ability to rapidly assess and map shoreline angles at regional and local scales, we have developed TerraceM, a MATLAB (R) graphical user interface that allows the shoreline angle and its associated error to be estimated using high-resolution topography. TerraceM uses topographic swath profiles oriented orthogonally to the terrace riser. Four functions are included to analyze the swath profiles and extract the shoreline angle, from both staircase sequences of multiple terraces and rough coasts characterized by eroded remnants of emerged terrace surfaces. The former are measured by outlining the paleocliffs and paieo-platforms and finding their intersection by extrapolating linear regressions, whereas the latter are assessed by automatically detecting peaks of sea-stack tops and back-projecting them to the modern sea cliff. In the absence of rigorous absolute age determinations of marine terraces, their geomorphic age may be estimated using previously published diffusion models. Postprocessing functions are included to obtain first-order statistics of shoreline-angle elevations and their spatial distribution. TerraceM has the ability to process series of profiles from several sites in an efficient and structured workflow. Results may be exported in Google Earth and ESRI shapefile formats. The precision and accuracy of the method have been estimated from a case study at Santa Cruz, California, by comparing TerraceM results with published field measurements. The repeatability was evaluated using multiple measurements made by inexperienced users. TerraceM will improve the efficiency and precision of estimating shoreline-angle elevations in wave-cut terraces in both marine and lacustrine environments.}, language = {en} } @article{BiskabornSubettoSavelievaetal.2016, author = {Biskaborn, Boris and Subetto, D. A. and Savelieva, L. A. and Vakhrameeva, P. S. and Hansche, A. and Herzschuh, Ulrike and Klemm, J. and Heinecke, L. and Pestryakova, Luidmila Agafyevna and Meyer, H. and Kuhn, G. and Diekmann, Bernhard}, title = {Late Quaternary vegetation and lake system dynamics in north-eastern Siberia: Implications for seasonal climate variability}, series = {Quaternary science reviews : the international multidisciplinary research and review journal}, volume = {147}, journal = {Quaternary science reviews : the international multidisciplinary research and review journal}, publisher = {Elsevier}, address = {Oxford}, issn = {0277-3791}, doi = {10.1016/j.quascirev.2015.08.014}, pages = {406 -- 421}, year = {2016}, abstract = {Although the climate development over the Holocene in the Northern Hemisphere is well known, palaeolimnological climate reconstructions reveal spatiotemporal variability in northern Eurasia. Here we present a multi-proxy study from north-eastern Siberia combining sediment geochemistry, and diatom and pollen data from lake-sediment cores covering the last 38,000 cal. years. Our results show major changes in pyrite content and fragilarioid diatom species distributions, indicating prolonged seasonal lake-ice cover between similar to 13,500 and similar to 8900 cal. years BP and possibly during the 8200 cal. years BP cold event. A pollen-based climate reconstruction generated a mean July temperature of 17.8 degrees C during the Holocene Thermal Maximum (HTM) between similar to 8900 and similar to 4500 cal. years BP. Naviculoid diatoms appear in the late Holocene indicating a shortening of the seasonal ice cover that continues today. Our results reveal a strong correlation between the applied terrestrial and aquatic indicators and natural seasonal climate dynamics in the Holocene. Planktonic diatoms show a strong response to changes in the lake ecosystem due to recent climate warming in the Anthropocene. We assess other palaeolimnological studies to infer the spatiotemporal pattern of the HTM and affirm that the timing of its onset, a difference of up to 3000 years from north to south, can be well explained by climatic teleconnections. The westerlies brought cold air to this part of Siberia until the Laurentide ice sheet vanished 7000 years ago. The apparent delayed ending of the HTM in the central Siberian record can be ascribed to the exceedance of ecological thresholds trailing behind increases in winter temperatures and decreases in contrast in insolation between seasons during the mid to late Holocene as well as lacking differentiation between summer and winter trends in paleolimnological reconstructions. (C) 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.}, language = {en} } @article{SchennenTronickeWetterichetal.2016, author = {Schennen, Stephan and Tronicke, Jens and Wetterich, Sebastian and Allroggen, Niklas and Schwamborn, Georg and Schirrmeister, Lutz}, title = {3D ground-penetrating radar imaging of ice complex deposits in northern East Siberia}, series = {Geophysics}, volume = {81}, journal = {Geophysics}, publisher = {Society of Exploration Geophysicists}, address = {Tulsa}, issn = {0016-8033}, doi = {10.1190/GEO2015-0129.1}, pages = {WA195 -- WA202}, year = {2016}, abstract = {Ice complex deposits are characteristic, ice-rich formations in northern East Siberia and represent an important part in the arctic carbon pool. Recently, these late Quaternary deposits are the objective of numerous investigations typically relying on outcrop and borehole data. Many of these studies can benefit from a 3D structural model of the subsurface for upscaling their observations or for constraining estimations of inventories, such as the local carbon stock. We have addressed this problem of structural imaging by 3D ground-penetrating radar (GPR), which, in permafrost studies, has been primarily used for 2D profiling. We have used a 3D kinematic GPR surveying strategy at a field site located in the New Siberian Archipelago on top of an ice complex. After applying a 3D GPR processing sequence, we were able to trace two horizons at depths below 20 m. Taking available borehole and outcrop data into account, we have interpreted these two features as interfaces of major lithologic units and derived a 3D cryostratigraphic model of the subsurface. Our data example demonstrated that a 3D surveying and processing strategy was crucial at our field site and showed the potential of 3D GPR to image geologic structures in complex ice-rich permafrost landscapes.}, language = {en} } @article{AllroggenTronicke2016, author = {Allroggen, Niklas and Tronicke, Jens}, title = {Attribute-based analysis of time-lapse ground-penetrating radar data}, series = {Geophysics}, volume = {81}, journal = {Geophysics}, publisher = {Society of Exploration Geophysicists}, address = {Tulsa}, issn = {0016-8033}, doi = {10.1190/GEO2015-0171.1}, pages = {H1 -- H8}, year = {2016}, abstract = {Analysis of time-lapse ground-penetrating radar (GPR) data can provide information regarding subsurface hydrological processes, such as preferential flow. However, the analysis of time-lapse data is often limited by data quality; for example, for noisy input data, the interpretation of difference images is often difficult. Motivated by modern image-processing tools, we have developed two robust GPR attributes, which allow us to distinguish amplitude (contrast similarity) and time-shift (structural similarity) variations related to differences between individual time-lapse GPR data sets. We tested and evaluated our attributes using synthetic data of different complexity. Afterward, we applied them to a field data example, in which subsurface flow was induced by an artificial rainfall event. For all examples, we identified our structural similarity attribute to be a robust measure for highlighting time-lapse changes also in data with low signal-to-noise ratios. We determined that our new attribute-based workflow is a promising tool to analyze time-lapse GPR data, especially for imaging subsurface hydrological processes.}, language = {en} } @article{GuillemoteauSimonLuecketal.2016, author = {Guillemoteau, Julien and Simon, Francois-Xavier and L{\"u}ck, Erika and Tronicke, Jens}, title = {1D sequential inversion of portable multi-configuration electromagnetic induction data}, series = {Near surface geophysics}, volume = {14}, journal = {Near surface geophysics}, publisher = {Wiley-VCH}, address = {Houten}, issn = {1569-4445}, doi = {10.3997/1873-0604.2016029}, pages = {423 -- 432}, year = {2016}, abstract = {We present an algorithm that performs sequentially one-dimensional inversion of subsurface magnetic permeability and electrical conductivity by using multi-configuration electromagnetic induction sensor data. The presented method is based on the conversion of the in-phase and out-of-phase data into effective magnetic permeability and electrical conductivity of the equivalent homogeneous half-space. In the case of small-offset systems, such as portable electromagnetic induction sensors, for which in-phase and out-of-phase data are moderately coupled, the effective half-space magnetic permeability and electrical conductivity can be inverted sequentially within an iterative scheme. We test and evaluate the proposed inversion strategy using synthetic and field examples. First, we apply it to synthetic data for some highly magnetic environments. Then, the method is tested on real field data acquired in a basaltic environment to image a formation of archaeological interest. These examples demonstrate that a joint interpretation of in-phase and out-of-phase data leads to a better characterisation of the subsurface in magnetic environments such as volcanic areas.}, language = {en} } @misc{RevereyGrossartPremkeetal.2016, author = {Reverey, Florian and Großart, Hans-Peter and Premke, Katrin and Lischeid, Gunnar}, title = {Carbon and nutrient cycling in kettle hole sediments depending on hydrological dynamics: a review}, series = {Hydrobiologia : acta hydrobiologica, hydrographica, limnologica et protistologica}, volume = {775}, journal = {Hydrobiologia : acta hydrobiologica, hydrographica, limnologica et protistologica}, publisher = {Springer}, address = {Dordrecht}, issn = {0018-8158}, doi = {10.1007/s10750-016-2715-9}, pages = {1 -- 20}, year = {2016}, abstract = {Kettle holes as a specific group of isolated, small lentic freshwater systems (LFS) often are (i) hot spots of biogeochemical cycling and (ii) exposed to frequent sediment desiccation and rewetting. Their ecological functioning is greatly determined by immanent carbon and nutrient transformations. The objective of this review is to elucidate effects of a changing hydrological regime (i.e., dry-wet cycles) on carbon and nutrient cycling in kettle hole sediments. Generally, dry-wet cycles have the potential to increase C and N losses as well as P availability. However, their duration and frequency are important controlling factors regarding direction and intensity of biogeochemical and microbiological responses. To evaluate drought impacts on sediment carbon and nutrient cycling in detail requires the context of the LFS hydrological history. For example, frequent drought events induce physiological adaptation of exposed microbial communities and thus flatten metabolic responses, whereas rare events provoke unbalanced, strong microbial responses. Different potential of microbial resilience to drought stress can irretrievably change microbial communities and functional guilds, gearing cascades of functional responses. Hence, dry-wet events can shift the biogeochemical cycling of organic matter and nutrients to a new equilibrium, thus affecting the dynamic balance between carbon burial and mineralization in kettle holes.}, language = {en} } @article{BougeoisdeRafelisReichartetal.2016, author = {Bougeois, Laurie and de Rafelis, Marc and Reichart, Gert-Jan and de Nooijer, Lennart J. and Dupont-Nivet, Guillaume}, title = {Mg/Ca in fossil oyster shells as palaeotemperature proxy, an example from the Palaeogene of Central Asia}, series = {Palaeogeography, palaeoclimatology, palaeoecology : an international journal for the geo-sciences}, volume = {441}, journal = {Palaeogeography, palaeoclimatology, palaeoecology : an international journal for the geo-sciences}, publisher = {Elsevier}, address = {Amsterdam}, issn = {0031-0182}, doi = {10.1016/j.palaeo.2015.09.052}, pages = {611 -- 626}, year = {2016}, abstract = {Fossil oyster shells are well-suited to provide palaeotemperature proxies from geologic to seasonal timescales due to their ubiquitous occurrence from Triassic to Quaternary sediments, the seasonal nature of their shell growth and their relative strong resistance to post-mortem alteration. However, the common use to translate calcitic oxygen isotopes into palaeotemperatures is challenged by uncertainties in accounting for past seawater delta O-18, especially in shallow coastal environment where oysters calcify. In principle, the Mg/Ca ratio in oyster shells can provide an alternative palaeothermometer. Several studies provided temperature calibrations for this potential proxy based on modem species, nevertheless their application to palaeo-studies remains hitherto unexplored. Here, we show that past temperature variability in seawater can be obtained from Mg/Ca analyses from selected fossil oyster species and specimens. High-resolution Mg/Ca profiles, combined with delta O-18, were obtained along 41 fossil oyster shells of seven different species from the Palaeogene Proto-Paratethys sea (Central Asia) found in similar as well as different depositional age and environments providing comparison. Suitable Mg/Ca profiles, defined by continuous cyclicity and reproducibility within one shell, are found to be consistent for specimens of the same species but differ systematically between species, implying a dominant species-specific effect on the Mg/Ca signal. Two species studied here (Ostrea (Turkostrea) strictiplicata and Sokolowia buhsii) provide an excellent proxy for palaeoclimate reconstruction from China to Europe in Palaeogene marine sediments. More generally, the protocol developed here can be applied to identify other fossil oyster species suitable for palaeoclimate reconstructions. (C) 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.}, language = {en} } @article{LichtPullenKappetal.2016, author = {Licht, Alexis and Pullen, A. and Kapp, P. and Abell, Jordan and Giesler, N.}, title = {Eolian cannibalism: Reworked loess and fluvial sediment as the main sources of the Chinese Loess Plateau}, series = {Geological Society of America bulletin}, volume = {128}, journal = {Geological Society of America bulletin}, publisher = {American Institute of Physics}, address = {Boulder}, issn = {0016-7606}, doi = {10.1130/B31375.1}, pages = {944 -- 956}, year = {2016}, abstract = {The loess and paleosol sequences of the Chinese Loess Plateau are composed of Quaternary dust, the origin of which has been the subject of considerable debate. Some recent U-Pb geochronological studies of eolian zircons have proposed the existence of two major wind pathways: from the north and northwest, through the Badan Jaran, Tengger, and Mu Us Deserts during interglacials, and from the west, through the Qaidam Basin during glacials. Others have emphasized the importance of Yellow River sediment supply in the Chinese Loess Plateau sediment budget. However, tracking dust source regions through U-Pb dating in a statistically robust manner is particularly complex given the similar age peaks in the age probability distributions of potential source regions in Central Asia. This paper presents 2410 new U-Pb ages of detrital zircons from wind-eroded strata, Quaternary eolian deposits, and modern river sands in central China in order to increase the robustness and the spatial resolution of zircon age distributions in dust source regions. We then propose a new mixture modeling technique to statistically address the contribution of these different sources to the Chinese Loess Plateau sedimentary budget. Our contribution estimates indicate that eolian supply to the Chinese Loess Plateau is dominated (60\%-70\%) by reworking of Yellow River sediment. Moreover, evidence of Qaidam Basin-sourced zircons (15\%-20\%) in both loess (glacial) and paleosol (interglacial) layers corroborates the existence of an erosive wind pathway through the Qaidam Basin during glacials and implies that a substantial portion of the interglacial dust is recycled from older glacial loess. We propose that sediment reworking of Yellow River sediment and older loess deposits by wind on the Chinese Loess Plateau homogenized the eolian zircon populations toward a glacial provenance due to higher (2-20 times) dust accumulation rates during glacials. These findings suggest that the Chinese Loess Plateau has evolved as a more dynamic landform than previous thought, where wind deflation, fluvial input, lateral transport, and accumulation of sediment are equally important. These internal reworking effects would then significantly bias the paleoclimatic interpretations based on eolian dust properties of the Chinese Loess Plateau.}, language = {en} } @article{BlayneyNajmanDupontNivetetal.2016, author = {Blayney, Tamsin and Najman, Yani and Dupont-Nivet, Guillaume and Carter, Andrew and Millar, Ian and Garzanti, Eduardo and Sobel, Edward and Rittner, Martin and Ando, Sergio and Guo, Zhaojie and Vezzoli, Giovanni}, title = {Indentation of the Pamirs with respect to the northern margin of Tibet: Constraints from the Tarim basin sedimentary record}, series = {Tectonics}, volume = {35}, journal = {Tectonics}, publisher = {American Geophysical Union}, address = {Washington}, issn = {0278-7407}, doi = {10.1002/2016TC004222}, pages = {2345 -- 2369}, year = {2016}, abstract = {The Pamirs represent the indented westward continuation of the northern margin of the Tibetan Plateau, dividing the Tarim and Tajik basins. Their evolution may be a key factor influencing aridification of the Asian interior, yet the tectonics of the Pamir Salient are poorly understood. We present a provenance study of the Aertashi section, a Paleogene to late Neogene clastic succession deposited in the Tarim basin to the north of the NW margin of Tibet (the West Kunlun) and to the east of the Pamirs. Our detrital zircon U-Pb ages coupled with zircon fission track, bulk rock Sm-Nd, and petrography data document changes in contributing source terranes during the Oligocene to Miocene, which can be correlated to regional tectonics. We propose a model for the evolution of the Pamir and West Kunlun (WKL), in which the WKL formed topography since at least similar to 200 Ma. By similar to 25 Ma, movement along the Pamir-bounding faults such as the Kashgar-Yecheng Transfer System had commenced, marking the onset of Pamir indentation into the Tarim-Tajik basin. This is coincident with basinward expansion of the northern WKL margin, which changed the palaeodrainage pattern within the Kunlun, progressively cutting off the more southerly WKL sources from the Tarim basin. An abrupt change in the provenance and facies of sediments at Aertashi has a maximum age of 14 Ma; this change records when the Pamir indenter had propagated sufficiently far north that the North Pamir was now located proximal to the Aertashi region.}, language = {en} } @article{HanRydinBolinderetal.2016, author = {Han, Fang and Rydin, Catarina and Bolinder, Kristina and Dupont-Nivet, Guillaume and Abels, Hemmo A. and Koutsodendris, Andreas and Zhang, Kexin and Hoorn, Carina}, title = {Steppe development on the Northern Tibetan Plateau inferred from Paleogene ephedroid pollen}, series = {Grana}, volume = {55}, journal = {Grana}, publisher = {Springer}, address = {Oslo}, issn = {0017-3134}, doi = {10.1080/00173134.2015.1120343}, pages = {71 -- 100}, year = {2016}, abstract = {Steppe vegetation represents a key marker of past Asian aridification and is associated with monsoonal intensification. Little is, however, known about the origin of this pre-Oligocene vegetation, its specific composition and how it changed over time and responded to climatic variations. Here, we describe the morphological characters of Ephedraceae pollen in Eocene strata of the Xining Basin and compare the pollen composition with the palynological composition of Late Cretaceous and Paleocene deposits of the Xining Basin and the Quaternary deposits of the Qaidam Basin. We find that the Late Cretaceous steppe was dominated by Gnetaceaepollenites; in the transition from the Cretaceous to the Paleocene, Gnetaceaepollenites became extinct and Ephedripites subgenus Ephedripites dominated the flora with rare occurrences of Ephedripites subgen. Distachyapites; the middle to late Eocene presents a strong increase of Ephedripites subgen. Distachyapites; and the Quaternary/Recent is marked by a significantly lower diversity of Ephedraceae (and Nitrariaceae) compared to the Eocene. In the modern landscape of China, only a fraction of the Paleogene species diversity of Ephedraceae remains and we propose that these alterations in Ephedreaceae composition occurred in response to the climatic changes at least since the Eocene. In particular, the strong Eocene monsoons that enhanced the continental aridification may have played an important role in the evolution of Ephedripites subgen. Distachyapites triggering an evolutionary shift to wind-pollination in this group. Conceivably, the Ephedraceae/Nitrariaceae dominated steppe ended during the Eocene/Oligocene climatic cooling and aridification, which favoured other plant taxa.}, language = {en} } @article{LichtDupontNivetPullenetal.2016, author = {Licht, Alexis and Dupont-Nivet, Guillaume and Pullen, A. and Kapp, P. and Abels, Hemmo A. and Lai, Z. and Guo, Z. and Abell, Jordan and Giesler, D.}, title = {Resilience of the Asian atmospheric circulation shown by Paleogene dust provenance}, series = {Nature Communications}, volume = {7}, journal = {Nature Communications}, publisher = {Nature Publ. Group}, address = {London}, issn = {2041-1723}, doi = {10.1038/ncomms12390}, pages = {885 -- 894}, year = {2016}, abstract = {The onset of modern central Asian atmospheric circulation is traditionally linked to the interplay of surface uplift of the Mongolian and Tibetan-Himalayan orogens, retreat of the Paratethys sea from central Asia and Cenozoic global cooling. Although the role of these players has not yet been unravelled, the vast dust deposits of central China support the presence of arid conditions and modern atmospheric pathways for the last 25 million years (Myr). Here, we present provenance data from older (42-33 Myr) dust deposits, at a time when the Tibetan Plateau was less developed, the Paratethys sea still present in central Asia and atmospheric pCO(2) much higher. Our results show that dust sources and near-surface atmospheric circulation have changed little since at least 42 Myr. Our findings indicate that the locus of central Asian high pressures and concurrent aridity is a resilient feature only modulated by mountain building, global cooling and sea retreat.}, language = {en} } @article{PremkeAttermeyerAugustinetal.2016, author = {Premke, Katrin and Attermeyer, Katrin and Augustin, J{\"u}rgen and Cabezas, Alvaro and Casper, Peter and Deumlich, Detlef and Gelbrecht, J{\"o}rg and Gerke, Horst H. and Gessler, Arthur and Großart, Hans-Peter and Hilt, Sabine and Hupfer, Michael and Kalettka, Thomas and Kayler, Zachary and Lischeid, Gunnar and Sommer, Michael and Zak, Dominik}, title = {The importance of landscape diversity for carbon fluxes at the landscape level: small-scale heterogeneity matters}, series = {Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews : Water}, volume = {3}, journal = {Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews : Water}, publisher = {Wiley}, address = {Hoboken}, issn = {2049-1948}, doi = {10.1002/wat2.1147}, pages = {601 -- 617}, year = {2016}, abstract = {Landscapes can be viewed as spatially heterogeneous areas encompassing terrestrial and aquatic domains. To date, most landscape carbon (C) fluxes have been estimated by accounting for terrestrial ecosystems, while aquatic ecosystems have been largely neglected. However, a robust assessment of C fluxes on the landscape scale requires the estimation of fluxes within and between both landscape components. Here, we compiled data from the literature on C fluxes across the air-water interface from various landscape components. We simulated C emissions and uptake for five different scenarios which represent a gradient of increasing spatial heterogeneity within a temperate young moraine landscape: (I) a homogeneous landscape with only cropland and large lakes; (II) separation of the terrestrial domain into cropland and forest; (III) further separation into cropland, forest, and grassland; (IV) additional division of the aquatic area into large lakes and peatlands; and (V) further separation of the aquatic area into large lakes, peatlands, running waters, and small water bodies These simulations suggest that C fluxes at the landscape scale might depend on spatial heterogeneity and landscape diversity, among other factors. When we consider spatial heterogeneity and diversity alone, small inland waters appear to play a pivotal and previously underestimated role in landscape greenhouse gas emissions that may be regarded as C hot spots. Approaches focusing on the landscape scale will also enable improved projections of ecosystems' responses to perturbations, e.g., due to global change and anthropogenic activities, and evaluations of the specific role individual landscape components play in regional C fluxes. WIREs Water 2016, 3:601-617. doi: 10.1002/wat2.1147}, language = {en} }