@phdthesis{Crisologo2019, author = {Crisologo, Irene}, title = {Using spaceborne radar platforms to enhance the homogeneity of weather radar calibration}, doi = {10.25932/publishup-44570}, url = {http://nbn-resolving.de/urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-445704}, school = {Universit{\"a}t Potsdam}, pages = {xvii, 61}, year = {2019}, abstract = {Accurate weather observations are the keystone to many quantitative applications, such as precipitation monitoring and nowcasting, hydrological modelling and forecasting, climate studies, as well as understanding precipitation-driven natural hazards (i.e. floods, landslides, debris flow). Weather radars have been an increasingly popular tool since the 1940s to provide high spatial and temporal resolution precipitation data at the mesoscale, bridging the gap between synoptic and point scale observations. Yet, many institutions still struggle to tap the potential of the large archives of reflectivity, as there is still much to understand about factors that contribute to measurement errors, one of which is calibration. Calibration represents a substantial source of uncertainty in quantitative precipitation estimation (QPE). A miscalibration of a few dBZ can easily deteriorate the accuracy of precipitation estimates by an order of magnitude. Instances where rain cells carrying torrential rains are misidentified by the radar as moderate rain could mean the difference between a timely warning and a devastating flood. Since 2012, the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical, and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) has been expanding the country's ground radar network. We had a first look into the dataset from one of the longest running radars (the Subic radar) after devastating week-long torrential rains and thunderstorms in August 2012 caused by the annual southwestmonsoon and enhanced by the north-passing Typhoon Haikui. The analysis of the rainfall spatial distribution revealed the added value of radar-based QPE in comparison to interpolated rain gauge observations. However, when compared with local gauge measurements, severe miscalibration of the Subic radar was found. As a consequence, the radar-based QPE would have underestimated the rainfall amount by up to 60\% if they had not been adjusted by rain gauge observations—a technique that is not only affected by other uncertainties, but which is also not feasible in other regions of the country with very sparse rain gauge coverage. Relative calibration techniques, or the assessment of bias from the reflectivity of two radars, has been steadily gaining popularity. Previous studies have demonstrated that reflectivity observations from the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) and its successor, the Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM), are accurate enough to serve as a calibration reference for ground radars over low-to-mid-latitudes (± 35 deg for TRMM; ± 65 deg for GPM). Comparing spaceborne radars (SR) and ground radars (GR) requires cautious consideration of differences in measurement geometry and instrument specifications, as well as temporal coincidence. For this purpose, we implement a 3-D volume matching method developed by Schwaller and Morris (2011) and extended by Warren et al. (2018) to 5 years worth of observations from the Subic radar. In this method, only the volumetric intersections of the SR and GR beams are considered. Calibration bias affects reflectivity observations homogeneously across the entire radar domain. Yet, other sources of systematic measurement errors are highly heterogeneous in space, and can either enhance or balance the bias introduced by miscalibration. In order to account for such heterogeneous errors, and thus isolate the calibration bias, we assign a quality index to each matching SR-GR volume, and thus compute the GR calibration bias as a qualityweighted average of reflectivity differences in any sample of matching SR-GR volumes. We exemplify the idea of quality-weighted averaging by using beam blockage fraction (BBF) as a quality variable. Quality-weighted averaging is able to increase the consistency of SR and GR observations by decreasing the standard deviation of the SR-GR differences, and thus increasing the precision of the bias estimates. To extend this framework further, the SR-GR quality-weighted bias estimation is applied to the neighboring Tagaytay radar, but this time focusing on path-integrated attenuation (PIA) as the source of uncertainty. Tagaytay is a C-band radar operating at a lower wavelength and is therefore more affected by attenuation. Applying the same method used for the Subic radar, a time series of calibration bias is also established for the Tagaytay radar. Tagaytay radar sits at a higher altitude than the Subic radar and is surrounded by a gentler terrain, so beam blockage is negligible, especially in the overlapping region. Conversely, Subic radar is largely affected by beam blockage in the overlapping region, but being an SBand radar, attenuation is considered negligible. This coincidentally independent uncertainty contributions of each radar in the region of overlap provides an ideal environment to experiment with the different scenarios of quality filtering when comparing reflectivities from the two ground radars. The standard deviation of the GR-GR differences already decreases if we consider either BBF or PIA to compute the quality index and thus the weights. However, combining them multiplicatively resulted in the largest decrease in standard deviation, suggesting that taking both factors into account increases the consistency between the matched samples. The overlap between the two radars and the instances of the SR passing over the two radars at the same time allows for verification of the SR-GR quality-weighted bias estimation method. In this regard, the consistency between the two ground radars is analyzed before and after bias correction is applied. For cases when all three radars are coincident during a significant rainfall event, the correction of GR reflectivities with calibration bias estimates from SR overpasses dramatically improves the consistency between the two ground radars which have shown incoherent observations before correction. We also show that for cases where adequate SR coverage is unavailable, interpolating the calibration biases using a moving average can be used to correct the GR observations for any point in time to some extent. By using the interpolated biases to correct GR observations, we demonstrate that bias correction reduces the absolute value of the mean difference in most cases, and therefore improves the consistency between the two ground radars. This thesis demonstrates that in general, taking into account systematic sources of uncertainty that are heterogeneous in space (e.g. BBF) and time (e.g. PIA) allows for a more consistent estimation of calibration bias, a homogeneous quantity. The bias still exhibits an unexpected variability in time, which hints that there are still other sources of errors that remain unexplored. Nevertheless, the increase in consistency between SR and GR as well as between the two ground radars, suggests that considering BBF and PIA in a weighted-averaging approach is a step in the right direction. Despite the ample room for improvement, the approach that combines volume matching between radars (either SR-GR or GR-GR) and quality-weighted comparison is readily available for application or further scrutiny. As a step towards reproducibility and transparency in atmospheric science, the 3D matching procedure and the analysis workflows as well as sample data are made available in public repositories. Open-source software such as Python and wradlib are used for all radar data processing in this thesis. This approach towards open science provides both research institutions and weather services with a valuable tool that can be applied to radar calibration, from monitoring to a posteriori correction of archived data.}, language = {en} } @article{ErdalBaroniSanchezLeonetal.2019, author = {Erdal, Daniel and Baroni, Gabriele and S{\´a}nchez Le{\´o}n, Eduardo Emilio and Cirpka, Olaf A.}, title = {The value of simplified models for spin up of complex models with an application to subsurface hydrology}, series = {Computers \& geosciences : an international journal devoted to the publication of papers on all aspects of geocomputation and to the distribution of computer programs and test data sets ; an official journal of the International Association for Mathematical Geology}, volume = {126}, journal = {Computers \& geosciences : an international journal devoted to the publication of papers on all aspects of geocomputation and to the distribution of computer programs and test data sets ; an official journal of the International Association for Mathematical Geology}, publisher = {Elsevier}, address = {Oxford}, issn = {0098-3004}, doi = {10.1016/j.cageo.2019.01.014}, pages = {62 -- 72}, year = {2019}, abstract = {Spinning up large-scale coupled surface-subsurface numerical models can be a time and resource consuming task. If an uninformed initial condition is chosen, the spin-up can easily require 20 years of repeated simulations on high-performance computing machines. In this paper we compare the classical approach of starting from a fixed shallow depth to groundwater (here 3 m) with three more informed approaches for the definition of initial conditions in the spin up. In the first of these three approaches, we start from a known-steady state groundwater table, calculated with a 2-D groundwater model and the yearly net recharge, and combine it with an unsaturated zone that assumes hydrostatic conditions. In the second approach, we start from the same groundwater table combined with vertical profiles in the unsaturated zone with uniform vertical flow identical to the groundwater recharge. In the third approach we calculate a dynamic steady state from a simplified subsurface model combining a transient 2-D groundwater model with a limited number of 1-D transient unsaturated zone columns on top. Results for spinning-up a 3-D Parflow-CLM model using the different initial conditions show that large gains can be made by considering states in groundwater and the vadose zone that are consistent, i.e. where groundwater recharge and the vertical flux in the vadose zone agree. By this, the spin-up time was reduced from about 10 years to about 3 years of simulated time. In the light of seasonal fluctuations of net recharge, using the transient approach showed more stable results.}, language = {en} } @article{BarendrechtViglioneKreibichetal.2019, author = {Barendrecht, Marlies H. and Viglione, Alberto and Kreibich, Heidi and Merz, Bruno and Vorogushyn, Sergiy and Bl{\"o}schl, G.}, title = {The Value of Empirical Data for Estimating the Parameters of a Sociohydrological Flood Risk Model}, series = {Water resources research}, volume = {55}, journal = {Water resources research}, number = {2}, publisher = {American Geophysical Union}, address = {Washington}, issn = {0043-1397}, doi = {10.1029/2018WR024128}, pages = {1312 -- 1336}, year = {2019}, abstract = {In this paper, empirical data are used to estimate the parameters of a sociohydrological flood risk model. The proposed model, which describes the interactions between floods, settlement density, awareness, preparedness, and flood loss, is based on the literature. Data for the case study of Dresden, Germany, over a period of 200years, are used to estimate the model parameters through Bayesian inference. The credibility bounds of their estimates are small, even though the data are rather uncertain. A sensitivity analysis is performed to examine the value of the different data sources in estimating the model parameters. In general, the estimated parameters are less biased when using data at the end of the modeled period. Data about flood awareness are the most important to correctly estimate the parameters of this model and to correctly model the system dynamics. Using more data for other variables cannot compensate for the absence of awareness data. More generally, the absence of data mostly affects the estimation of the parameters that are directly related to the variable for which data are missing. This paper demonstrates that combining sociohydrological modeling and empirical data gives additional insights into the sociohydrological system, such as quantifying the forgetfulness of the society, which would otherwise not be easily achieved by sociohydrological models without data or by standard statistical analysis of empirical data.}, language = {en} } @article{FaireyTimmermanSudoetal.2019, author = {Fairey, Brenton J. and Timmerman, Martin Jan and Sudo, Masafumi and Tsikos, Harilaos}, title = {The role of hydrothermal activity in the formation of Karst-hosted manganese deposits of the Postmasburg Mn Field, Northern Cape Province, South Africa}, series = {Minerals}, volume = {9}, journal = {Minerals}, number = {7}, publisher = {MDPI}, address = {Basel}, issn = {2075-163X}, doi = {10.3390/min9070408}, pages = {28}, year = {2019}, abstract = {The Postmasburg Manganese Field (PMF), Northern Cape Province, South Africa, once represented one of the largest sources of manganese ore worldwide. Two belts of manganese ore deposits have been distinguished in the PMF, namely the Western Belt of ferruginous manganese ores and the Eastern Belt of siliceous manganese ores. Prevailing models of ore formation in these two belts invoke karstification of manganese-rich dolomites and residual accumulation of manganese wad which later underwent diagenetic and low-grade metamorphic processes. For the most part, the role of hydrothermal processes and metasomatic alteration towards ore formation has not been adequately discussed. Here we report an abundance of common and some rare Al-, Na-, K- and Ba-bearing minerals, particularly aegirine, albite, microcline, banalsite, serandite-pectolite, paragonite and natrolite in Mn ores of the PMF, indicative of hydrothermal influence. Enrichments in Na, K and/or Ba in the ores are generally on a percentage level for most samples analysed through bulk-rock techniques. The presence of As-rich tokyoite also suggests the presence of As and V in the hydrothermal fluid. The fluid was likely oxidized and alkaline in nature, akin to a mature basinal brine. Various replacement textures, particularly of Na- and K- rich minerals by Ba-bearing phases, suggest sequential deposition of gangue as well as ore-minerals from the hydrothermal fluid, with Ba phases being deposited at a later stage. The stratigraphic variability of the studied ores and their deviation from the strict classification of ferruginous and siliceous ores in the literature, suggests that a re-evaluation of genetic models is warranted. New Ar-Ar ages for K-feldspars suggest a late Neoproterozoic timing for hydrothermal activity. This corroborates previous geochronological evidence for regional hydrothermal activity that affected Mn ores at the PMF but also, possibly, the high-grade Mn ores of the Kalahari Manganese Field to the north. A revised, all-encompassing model for the development of the manganese deposits of the PMF is then proposed, whereby the source of metals is attributed to underlying carbonate rocks beyond the Reivilo Formation of the Campbellrand Subgroup. The main process by which metals are primarily accumulated is attributed to karstification of the dolomitic substrate. The overlying Asbestos Hills Subgroup banded iron formation (BIF) is suggested as a potential source of alkali metals, which also provides a mechanism for leaching of these BIFs to form high-grade residual iron ore deposits.}, language = {en} } @article{BielcikAguilarTriguerosLakovicetal.2019, author = {Bielcik, Milos and Aguilar-Trigueros, Carlos A. and Lakovic, Milica and Jeltsch, Florian and Rillig, Matthias C.}, title = {The role of active movement in fungal ecology and community assembly}, series = {Movement Ecology}, volume = {7}, journal = {Movement Ecology}, number = {1}, publisher = {BMC}, address = {London}, issn = {2051-3933}, doi = {10.1186/s40462-019-0180-6}, pages = {12}, year = {2019}, abstract = {Movement ecology aims to provide common terminology and an integrative framework of movement research across all groups of organisms. Yet such work has focused on unitary organisms so far, and thus the important group of filamentous fungi has not been considered in this context. With the exception of spore dispersal, movement in filamentous fungi has not been integrated into the movement ecology field. At the same time, the field of fungal ecology has been advancing research on topics like informed growth, mycelial translocations, or fungal highways using its own terminology and frameworks, overlooking the theoretical developments within movement ecology. We provide a conceptual and terminological framework for interdisciplinary collaboration between these two disciplines, and show how both can benefit from closer links: We show how placing the knowledge from fungal biology and ecology into the framework of movement ecology can inspire both theoretical and empirical developments, eventually leading towards a better understanding of fungal ecology and community assembly. Conversely, by a greater focus on movement specificities of filamentous fungi, movement ecology stands to benefit from the challenge to evolve its concepts and terminology towards even greater universality. We show how our concept can be applied for other modular organisms (such as clonal plants and slime molds), and how this can lead towards comparative studies with the relationship between organismal movement and ecosystems in the focus.}, language = {en} } @article{TanskiBergstedtBevingtonetal.2019, author = {Tanski, George and Bergstedt, Helena and Bevington, Alexandre and Bonnaventure, Philip and Bouchard, Frederic and Coch, Caroline and Dumais, Simon and Evgrafova, Alevtina and Frauenfeld, Oliver W. and Frederick, Jennifer and Fritz, Michael and Frolov, Denis and Harder, Silvie and Hartmeyer, Ingo and Heslop, Joanne and Hoegstroem, Elin and Johansson, Margareta and Kraev, Gleb and Kuznetsova, Elena and Lenz, Josefine and Lupachev, Alexey and Magnin, Florence and Martens, Jannik and Maslakov, Alexey and Morgenstern, Anne and Nieuwendam, Alexandre and Oliva, Marc and Radosavljevi, Boris and Ramage, Justine Lucille and Schneider, Andrea and Stanilovskaya, Julia and Strauss, Jens and Trochim, Erin and Vecellio, Daniel J. and Weber, Samuel and Lantuit, Hugues}, title = {The Permafrost Young Researchers Network (PYRN) is getting older}, series = {Polar record}, volume = {55}, journal = {Polar record}, number = {4}, publisher = {Cambridge Univ. Press}, address = {New York}, issn = {0032-2474}, doi = {10.1017/S0032247418000645}, pages = {216 -- 219}, year = {2019}, abstract = {A lasting legacy of the International Polar Year (IPY) 2007-2008 was the promotion of the Permafrost Young Researchers Network (PYRN), initially an IPY outreach and education activity by the International Permafrost Association (IPA). With the momentum of IPY, PYRN developed into a thriving network that still connects young permafrost scientists, engineers, and researchers from other disciplines. This research note summarises (1) PYRN's development since 2005 and the IPY's role, (2) the first 2015 PYRN census and survey results, and (3) PYRN's future plans to improve international and interdisciplinary exchange between young researchers. The review concludes that PYRN is an established network within the polar research community that has continually developed since 2005. PYRN's successful activities were largely fostered by IPY. With >200 of the 1200 registered members active and engaged, PYRN is capitalising on the availability of social media tools and rising to meet environmental challenges while maintaining its role as a successful network honouring the legacy of IPY.}, language = {en} } @phdthesis{Thonicke2019, author = {Thonicke, Kirsten}, title = {The influence of disturbance, climate extremes and land-use change on vegetation dynamics}, school = {Universit{\"a}t Potsdam}, year = {2019}, language = {en} } @misc{LopezTarazonBronstertThiekenetal.2019, author = {Lopez Tarazon, Jos{\´e} Andr{\´e}s and Bronstert, Axel and Thieken, Annegret and Petrow, Theresia}, title = {The effects of global change on floods, fluvial geomorphology and related hazards in mountainous rivers}, series = {The science of the total environment : an international journal for scientific research into the environment and its relationship with man}, volume = {669}, journal = {The science of the total environment : an international journal for scientific research into the environment and its relationship with man}, publisher = {Elsevier}, address = {Amsterdam}, issn = {0048-9697}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2019.03.026}, pages = {7 -- 10}, year = {2019}, language = {en} } @misc{OPUS4-48290, title = {Hydrology Day 2020: March 31 to April 1, 2020 in Potsdam : "Hydrology: Linking the Environmental Phases and -Disciplines"}, series = {Hydrologie und Wasserbewirtschaftung}, volume = {63}, journal = {Hydrologie und Wasserbewirtschaftung}, number = {6}, publisher = {Bundesanstalt f{\"u}r Gew{\"a}sserkunde}, address = {Koblenz}, issn = {1439-1783}, pages = {356 -- 356}, year = {2019}, language = {de} } @article{FosterHeindelRichozetal.2019, author = {Foster, William J. and Heindel, Katrin and Richoz, Sylvain and Gliwa, Jana and Lehrmann, Daniel J. and Baud, Aymon and Kolar-Jurkovsek, Tea and Aljinovic, Dunja and Jurkovsek, Bogdan and Korn, Dieter and Martindale, Rowan C. and Peckmann, J{\"o}rn}, title = {Suppressed competitive exclusion enabled the proliferation of Permian/Triassic boundary microbialites}, series = {The Depositional Record : the open access journal of the International Association of Sedimentologists}, volume = {6}, journal = {The Depositional Record : the open access journal of the International Association of Sedimentologists}, number = {1}, publisher = {Wiley}, address = {Hoboken}, issn = {2055-4877}, doi = {10.1002/dep2.97}, pages = {62 -- 74}, year = {2019}, abstract = {During the earliest Triassic microbial mats flourished in the photic zones of marginal seas, generating widespread microbialites. It has been suggested that anoxic conditions in shallow marine environments, linked to the end-Permian mass extinction, limited mat-inhibiting metazoans allowing for this microbialite expansion. The presence of a diverse suite of proxies indicating oxygenated shallow sea-water conditions (metazoan fossils, biomarkers and redox proxies) from microbialite successions have, however, challenged the inference of anoxic conditions. Here, the distribution and faunal composition of Griesbachian microbialites from China, Iran, Turkey, Armenia, Slovenia and Hungary are investigated to determine the factors that allowed microbialite-forming microbial mats to flourish following the end-Permian crisis. The results presented here show that Neotethyan microbial buildups record a unique faunal association due to the presence of keratose sponges, while the Palaeotethyan buildups have a higher proportion of molluscs and the foraminifera Earlandia. The distribution of the faunal components within the microbial fabrics suggests that, except for the keratose sponges and some microconchids, most of the metazoans were transported into the microbial framework via wave currents. The presence of both microbialites and metazoan associations were limited to oxygenated settings, suggesting that a factor other than anoxia resulted in a relaxation of ecological constraints following the mass extinction event. It is inferred that the end-Permian mass extinction event decreased the diversity and abundance of metazoans to the point of significantly reducing competition, allowing photosynthesis-based microbial mats to flourish in shallow water settings and resulting in the formation of widespread microbialites.}, language = {en} } @misc{KalkuhlSteckelMontroneetal.2019, author = {Kalkuhl, Matthias and Steckel, Jan Christoph and Montrone, Lorenzo and Jakob, Michael and Peters, J{\"o}rg and Edenhofer, Ottmar}, title = {Successful coal phase-out requires new models of development}, series = {Nature Energy}, volume = {4}, journal = {Nature Energy}, number = {11}, publisher = {Nature Publ. Group}, address = {London}, issn = {2058-7546}, doi = {10.1038/s41560-019-0500-5}, pages = {897 -- 900}, year = {2019}, abstract = {Different energy sources have different spillovers on economic development and industrialization. Pathways of economic development based on renewable energy sources might require additional policies to support industrial development.}, language = {en} } @article{FohlmeisterLechleitner2019, author = {Fohlmeister, Jens Bernd and Lechleitner, Franziska A.}, title = {STAlagmite dating by radiocarbon (star)}, series = {Quaternary geochronology : the international research and review journal on advances in quaternary dating techniques}, volume = {51}, journal = {Quaternary geochronology : the international research and review journal on advances in quaternary dating techniques}, publisher = {Elsevier}, address = {Oxford}, issn = {1871-1014}, doi = {10.1016/j.quageo.2019.02.008}, pages = {120 -- 129}, year = {2019}, abstract = {Speleothems, secondary cave carbonates, are important tools for climate reconstruction, especially as they often can be very precisely dated with the UTh method. If the U-Th method fails, dating becomes difficult, and often results in abandonment of samples and study sites. Radiocarbon dating is the only other radiometric dating technique applicable to the last similar to 50 ka, but presents complexities related to temporal variability of the reservoir effect in speleothems. Thus, radiocarbon dating of speleothems is not straightforward, and there are currently no publicly available tools to define proper age-depth relationships with this method. Here, we present an improved version of a previously published radiocarbon based age-depth modelling approach (star, Lechleitner et al., 2016b), which is now made freely available. The software is easy to use and provides the possibility to obtain reliable age-depth relationships, without prior knowledge of reservoir effects and their variability. In addition, star is able to detect and handle growth stops and phases with different growth rates. We test star on artificially constructed data sets and illustrate steps to improve the model performance. Furthermore, we apply the new approach to published radiocarbon data of U-Th dated stalagmites. This offers the possibility to investigate the strengths and weaknesses of the new approach with respect to potentially significant long term trends in the radiocarbon reservoir effect, which might otherwise remain undetected. In summary, we have produced a valuable software, which easily enables to construct age-depth relationships on the basis of reservoir effect disturbed radiocarbon measurements.}, language = {en} } @article{BarbosadeLiraRabeloCoelhoetal.2019, author = {Barbosa, Luis Romero and de Lira, Nicholas Borges and Rabelo Coelho, Victor Hugo and Bernard Passerat de Silans, Alain Marie and Gadelha, Andre Nobrega and Almeida, Cristiano das Neves}, title = {Stability of Soil Moisture Patterns Retrieved at Different Temporal Resolutions in a Tropical Watershed}, series = {Revista brasileira de ciencias do solo}, volume = {43}, journal = {Revista brasileira de ciencias do solo}, publisher = {Sociedade Brasileira de Ciencia do Solo}, address = {Vicosa}, issn = {0100-0683}, doi = {10.1590/18069657rbcs20180236}, pages = {21}, year = {2019}, abstract = {Above and underground hydrological processes depend on soil moisture (SM) variability, driven by different environmental factors that seldom are well-monitored, leading to a misunderstanding of soil water temporal patterns. This study investigated the stability of the SM temporal dynamics to different monitoring temporal resolutions around the border between two soil types in a tropical watershed. Four locations were instrumented in a small-scale watershed (5.84 km(2)) within the tropical coast of Northeast Brazil, encompassing different soil types (Espodossolo Humiluvico or Carbic Podzol, and Argissolo Vermelho-Amarelo or Haplic Acrisol), land covers (Atlantic Forest, bush vegetation, and grassland) and topographies (flat and moderate slope). The SM was monitored at a temporal resolution of one hour along the 2013-2014 hydrological year and then resampled a resolutions of 6 h, 12 h, 1 day, 2 days, 4 days, 7 days, and 15 days. Descriptive statistics, temporal variability, time-stability ranking, and hierarchical clustering revealed uneven associations among SM time components. The results show that the time-invariant component ruled SM temporal variability over the time-varying parcel, either at high or low temporal resolutions. Time-steps longer than 2 days affected the mean statistical metrics of the SM time-variant parcel. Additionally, SM at downstream and upstream sites behaved differently, suggesting that the temporal mean was regulated by steady soil properties (slope, restrictive layer, and soil texture), whereas their temporal anomalies were driven by climate (rainfall) and hydrogeological (groundwater level) factors. Therefore, it is concluded that around the border between tropical soil types, the distinct behaviour of time-variant and time-invariant components of SM time series reflects different combinations of their soil properties.}, language = {en} } @article{PenaAnguloNadalRomeroGonzalezHidalgoetal.2019, author = {Pena-Angulo, D. and Nadal-Romero, E. and Gonzalez-Hidalgo, J. C. and Albaladejo, J. and Andreu, V and Bagarello, V and Barhi, H. and Batalla, R. J. and Bernal, S. and Bienes, R. and Campo, J. and Campo-Bescos, M. A. and Canatario-Duarte, A. and Canton, Y. and Casali, J. and Castillo, V and Cerda, Artemi and Cheggour, A. and Cid, Patricio and Cortesi, N. and Desir, G. and Diaz-Pereira, E. and Espigares, T. and Estrany, Joan and Fernandez-Raga, M. and Ferreira, Carla S. S. and Ferro, Vito and Gallart, Francesc and Gimenez, R. and Gimeno, E. and Gomez, J. A. and Gomez-Gutierrez, A. and Gomez-Macpherson, H. and Gonzalez-Pelayo, O. and Hueso-Gonzalez, P. and Kairis, O. and Karatzas, G. P. and Klotz, S. and Kosmas, C. and Lana-Renault, Noemi and Lasanta, T. and Latron, J. and Lazaro, R. and Le Bissonnais, Y. and Le Bouteiller, C. and Licciardello, F. and Lopez-Tarazon, Jos{\´e} Andr{\´e}s and Lucia, A. and Marin, C. and Marques, M. J. and Martinez-Fernandez, J. and Martinez-Mena, M. and Martinez-Murillo, J. F. and Mateos, L. and Mathys, N. and Merino-Martin, L. and Moreno-de las Heras, M. and Moustakas, N. and Nicolau, J. M. and Novara, A. and Pampalone, V and Raclot, D. and Rodriguez-Blanco, M. L. and Rodrigo-Comino, Jes{\´u}s and Romero-Diaz, A. and Roose, E. and Rubio, J. L. and Ruiz-Sinoga, J. D. and Schnabel, S. and Senciales-Gonzalez, J. M. and Simonneaux, V and Sole-Benet, A. and Taguas, E. and Taboada-Castro, M. M. and Taboada-Castro, M. T. and Todisco, Francesca and Ubeda, X. and Varouchakis, E. A. and Vericat, Damia and Wittenberg, L. and Zabaleta, A. and Zorn, M.}, title = {Spatial variability of the relationships of runoff and sediment yield with weather types throughout the Mediterranean basin}, series = {Journal of hydrology}, volume = {571}, journal = {Journal of hydrology}, publisher = {Elsevier}, address = {Amsterdam}, issn = {0022-1694}, doi = {10.1016/j.jhydrol.2019.01.059}, pages = {390 -- 405}, year = {2019}, abstract = {Soil degradation by water is a serious environmental problem worldwide, with specific climatic factors being the major causes. We investigated the relationships between synoptic atmospheric patterns (i.e. weather types, WTs) and runoff, erosion and sediment yield throughout the Mediterranean basin by analyzing a large database of natural rainfall events at 68 research sites in 9 countries. Principal Component Analysis (PCA) was used to identify spatial relationships of the different WTs including three hydro-sedimentary variables: rainfall, runoff, and sediment yield (SY, used to refer to both soil erosion measured at plot scale and sediment yield registered at catchment scale). The results indicated 4 spatial classes of rainfall and runoff: (a) northern sites dependent on North (N) and North West (NW) flows; (b) eastern sites dependent on E and NE flows; (c) southern sites dependent on S and SE flows; and, finally, (d) western sites dependent on W and SW flows. Conversely, three spatial classes are identified for SY characterized by: (a) N and NE flows in northern sites (b) E flows in eastern sites, and (c) W and SW flows in western sites. Most of the rainfall, runoff and SY occurred during a small number of daily events, and just a few WTs accounted for large percentages of the total. Our results confirm that characterization by WT improves understanding of the general conditions under which runoff and SY occur, and provides useful information for understanding the spatial variability of runoff, and SY throughout the Mediterranean basin. The approach used here could be useful to aid of the design of regional water management and soil conservation measures.}, language = {en} } @article{MusterRileyRothetal.2019, author = {Muster, Sina and Riley, William J. and Roth, Kurt and Langer, Moritz and Aleina, Fabio Cresto and Koven, Charles D. and Lange, Stephan and Bartsch, Annett and Grosse, Guido and Wilson, Cathy J. and Jones, Benjamin M. and Boike, Julia}, title = {Size distributions of arctic waterbodies reveal consistent relations in their statistical moments in space and time}, series = {Frontiers in Earth Science}, volume = {7}, journal = {Frontiers in Earth Science}, publisher = {Frontiers Research Foundation}, address = {Lausanne}, issn = {2296-6463}, doi = {10.3389/feart.2019.00005}, pages = {15}, year = {2019}, abstract = {Arctic lowlands are characterized by large numbers of small waterbodies, which are known to affect surface energy budgets and the global carbon cycle. Statistical analysis of their size distributions has been hindered by the shortage of observations at sufficiently high spatial resolutions. This situation has now changed with the high-resolution (<5 m) circum-Arctic Permafrost Region Pond and Lake (PeRL) database recently becoming available. We have used this database to make the first consistent, high-resolution estimation of Arctic waterbody size distributions, with surface areas ranging from 0.0001 km(2) (100 m(2)) to 1 km(2). We found that the size distributions varied greatly across the thirty study regions investigated and that there was no single universal size distribution function (including power-law distribution functions) appropriate across all of the study regions. We did, however, find close relationships between the statistical moments (mean, variance, and skewness) of the waterbody size distributions from different study regions. Specifically, we found that the spatial variance increased linearly with mean waterbody size (R-2 = 0.97, p < 2.2e-16) and that the skewness decreased approximately hyperbolically. We have demonstrated that these relationships (1) hold across the 30 Arctic study regions covering a variety of (bio)climatic and permafrost zones, (2) hold over time in two of these study regions for which multi-decadal satellite imagery is available, and (3) can be reproduced by simulating rising water levels in a high-resolution digital elevation model. The consistent spatial and temporal relationships between the statistical moments of the waterbody size distributions underscore the dominance of topographic controls in lowland permafrost areas. These results provide motivation for further analyses of the factors involved in waterbody development and spatial distribution and for investigations into the possibility of using statistical moments to predict future hydrologic dynamics in the Arctic.}, language = {en} } @article{ReinhardGeisslerBlaum2019, author = {Reinhard, Johanna E. and Geissler, Katja and Blaum, Niels}, title = {Short-term responses of darkling beetles (Coleoptera:Tenebrionidae) to the effects of fire and grazing in savannah rangeland}, series = {Insect Conservation and Diversity}, volume = {12}, journal = {Insect Conservation and Diversity}, number = {1}, publisher = {Wiley}, address = {Hoboken}, issn = {1752-458X}, doi = {10.1111/icad.12324}, pages = {39 -- 48}, year = {2019}, abstract = {Fire and grazing shape biodiversity in savannah landscapes. In land use management, knowing the effects of fire and grazing on biodiversity are important in order to ensure environmental sustainability. Beetles specifically are indicators of the biodiversity response to fire and grazing. A grazing exclusion and burning experiment in a split-plot design was used in order to investigate the interacting effects of fire and wildlife grazing on biomass, diversity, and species composition of darkling beetles (Coleoptera, Tenebrionidae) over time after fire. Darkling beetle species richness and diversity were responding in a three-way-interaction to fire, grazing, and time after fire, whereby biomass of darkling beetles remained unaffected and species compositional changes were attributed to seasonal changes of time only. Fire on ungrazed plots had a negative effect on species diversity and richness 2 weeks and 6 months post fire, whereas fire on grazed plots had no impact on species diversity and richness. Grazing only lowered species diversity and richness 6 months after fire treatments. Results suggest that grazing overrides the effects of fire and that the similar effects caused by fire and grazing are due to niche and assemblage simplification of the habitat.}, language = {en} } @phdthesis{LeBot2019, author = {Le Bot, Nils}, title = {Quel avenir pour les gares m{\´e}tropolitaines fran{\c{c}}aises et allemandes ?}, doi = {10.25932/publishup-44220}, url = {http://nbn-resolving.de/urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-442201}, school = {Universit{\"a}t Potsdam}, pages = {589}, year = {2019}, abstract = {Cette th{\`e}se d'urbanisme s'est donn{\´e}e pour objectif de r{\´e}fl{\´e}chir {\`a} l'avenir des gares m{\´e}tropolitaines fran{\c{c}}aises et allemandes {\`a} horizon 2050. Elle porte une interrogation sur les fondements de la gare comme objet urbain conceptuel (abord{\´e} comme un syst{\`e}me) et pose comme hypoth{\`e}se qu'il serait en quelque sorte dot{\´e} de propri{\´e}t{\´e}s autonomes. Parmi ces propri{\´e}t{\´e}s, c'est le processus d'expansion et de dialogue sans cesse renouvel{\´e} et conflictuel, entre la gare et son tissu urbain environnant, qui guide cette recherche ; notamment dans le rapport qu'il entretient avec l'hypermobilit{\´e} des m{\´e}tropoles. Pour ce faire, cette th{\`e}se convoque quatre terrains d'{\´e}tudes : les gares principales de Cologne et de Stuttgart en Allemagne et les gares de Paris-Montparnasse et Lyon-Part-Dieu en France ; et commence par un historique d{\´e}taill{\´e} de leurs {\´e}volutions morphologiques, pour d{\´e}gager une s{\´e}rie de variables architectoniques et urbaines. Il proc{\`e}de dans un deuxi{\`e}me temps {\`a} une s{\´e}rie d'analyse prospective, permettant de juger de l'influence possible des politiques publiques en mati{\`e}re transports et de mobilit{\´e}, sur l'avenir conceptuel des gares. Cette th{\`e}se propose alors le concept de syst{\`e}me-gare, pour d{\´e}crire l'expansion et l'int{\´e}gration des gares m{\´e}tropolitaines avec leur environnement urbain ; un processus de n{\´e}gociation dialectique qui ne trouve pas sa r{\´e}solution dans le concept de gare comme lieu de vie/ville. Elle invite alors {\`a} penser la gare comme une h{\´e}t{\´e}rotopie, et propose une lecture d{\´e}polaris{\´e}e et d{\´e}hi{\´e}rarchis{\´e}e de ces espaces, en introduisant les concepts d'orchestre de gares et de m{\´e}tagare. Cette recherche propose enfin une lecture critique de la « ville num{\´e}rique » et du concept de « mobilit{\´e} comme service. » Pour {\´e}viter une mise en flux tendus potentiellement dommageables, l'application de ces concepts en gare ne pourra se soustraire {\`a} une augmentation simultan{\´e}e des espaces physiques.}, language = {fr} } @article{SairamSchroeterLuedtkeetal.2019, author = {Sairam, Nivedita and Schr{\"o}ter, Kai and L{\"u}dtke, Stefan and Merz, Bruno and Kreibich, Heidi}, title = {Quantifying Flood Vulnerability Reduction via Private Precaution}, series = {Earth future}, volume = {7}, journal = {Earth future}, number = {3}, publisher = {American Geophysical Union}, address = {Washington}, issn = {2328-4277}, doi = {10.1029/2018EF000994}, pages = {235 -- 249}, year = {2019}, abstract = {Private precaution is an important component in contemporary flood risk management and climate adaptation. However, quantitative knowledge about vulnerability reduction via private precautionary measures is scarce and their effects are hardly considered in loss modeling and risk assessments. However, this is a prerequisite to enable temporally dynamic flood damage and risk modeling, and thus the evaluation of risk management and adaptation strategies. To quantify the average reduction in vulnerability of residential buildings via private precaution empirical vulnerability data (n = 948) is used. Households with and without precautionary measures undertaken before the flood event are classified into treatment and nontreatment groups and matched. Postmatching regression is used to quantify the treatment effect. Additionally, we test state-of-the-art flood loss models regarding their capability to capture this difference in vulnerability. The estimated average treatment effect of implementing private precaution is between 11 and 15 thousand EUR per household, confirming the significant effectiveness of private precautionary measures in reducing flood vulnerability. From all tested flood loss models, the expert Bayesian network-based model BN-FLEMOps and the rule-based loss model FLEMOps perform best in capturing the difference in vulnerability due to private precaution. Thus, the use of such loss models is suggested for flood risk assessments to effectively support evaluations and decision making for adaptable flood risk management.}, language = {en} } @article{LawrenceSchaefer2019, author = {Lawrence, Mark and Sch{\"a}fer, Stefan}, title = {Promises and perils of the Paris Agreement}, series = {Science}, volume = {364}, journal = {Science}, number = {6443}, publisher = {American Association for the Advancement of Science}, address = {Washington}, issn = {0036-8075}, doi = {10.1126/science.aaw4602}, pages = {829 -- 830}, year = {2019}, language = {en} } @article{RoezerKreibichSchroeteretal.2019, author = {R{\"o}zer, Viktor and Kreibich, Heidi and Schr{\"o}ter, Kai and M{\"u}ller, Meike and Sairam, Nivedita and Doss-Gollin, James and Lall, Upmanu and Merz, Bruno}, title = {Probabilistic Models Significantly Reduce Uncertainty in Hurricane Harvey Pluvial Flood Loss Estimates}, series = {Earths future}, volume = {7}, journal = {Earths future}, number = {4}, publisher = {American Geophysical Union}, address = {Washington}, issn = {2328-4277}, doi = {10.1029/2018EF001074}, pages = {384 -- 394}, year = {2019}, abstract = {Pluvial flood risk is mostly excluded in urban flood risk assessment. However, the risk of pluvial flooding is a growing challenge with a projected increase of extreme rainstorms compounding with an ongoing global urbanization. Considered as a flood type with minimal impacts when rainfall rates exceed the capacity of urban drainage systems, the aftermath of rainfall-triggered flooding during Hurricane Harvey and other events show the urgent need to assess the risk of pluvial flooding. Due to the local extent and small-scale variations, the quantification of pluvial flood risk requires risk assessments on high spatial resolutions. While flood hazard and exposure information is becoming increasingly accurate, the estimation of losses is still a poorly understood component of pluvial flood risk quantification. We use a new probabilistic multivariable modeling approach to estimate pluvial flood losses of individual buildings, explicitly accounting for the associated uncertainties. Except for the water depth as the common most important predictor, we identified the drivers for having loss or not and for the degree of loss to be different. Applying this approach to estimate and validate building structure losses during Hurricane Harvey using a property level data set, we find that the reliability and dispersion of predictive loss distributions vary widely depending on the model and aggregation level of property level loss estimates. Our results show that the use of multivariable zero-inflated beta models reduce the 90\% prediction intervalsfor Hurricane Harvey building structure loss estimates on average by 78\% (totalling U.S.\$3.8 billion) compared to commonly used models.}, language = {en} } @article{HerzschuhCaoLaeppleetal.2019, author = {Herzschuh, Ulrike and Cao, Xianyong and Laepple, Thomas and Dallmeyer, Anne and Telford, Richard J. and Ni, Jian and Chen, Fahu and Kong, Zhaochen and Liu, Guangxiu and Liu, Kam-Biu and Liu, Xingqi and Stebich, Martina and Tang, Lingyu and Tian, Fang and Wang, Yongbo and Wischnewski, Juliane and Xu, Qinghai and Yan, Shun and Yang, Zhenjing and Yu, Ge and Zhang, Yun and Zhao, Yan and Zheng, Zhuo}, title = {Position and orientation of the westerly jet determined Holocene rainfall patterns in China}, series = {Nature Communications}, volume = {10}, journal = {Nature Communications}, publisher = {Nature Publ. Group}, address = {London}, issn = {2041-1723}, doi = {10.1038/s41467-019-09866-8}, pages = {8}, year = {2019}, abstract = {Proxy-based reconstructions and modeling of Holocene spatiotemporal precipitation patterns for China and Mongolia have hitherto yielded contradictory results indicating that the basic mechanisms behind the East Asian Summer Monsoon and its interaction with the westerly jet stream remain poorly understood. We present quantitative reconstructions of Holocene precipitation derived from 101 fossil pollen records and analyse them with the help of a minimal empirical model. We show that the westerly jet-stream axis shifted gradually southward and became less tilted since the middle Holocene. This was tracked by the summer monsoon rain band resulting in an early-Holocene precipitation maximum over most of western China, a mid-Holocene maximum in north-central and northeastern China, and a late-Holocene maximum in southeastern China. Our results suggest that a correct simulation of the orientation and position of the westerly jet stream is crucial to the reliable prediction of precipitation patterns in China and Mongolia.}, language = {en} } @phdthesis{Veh2019, author = {Veh, Georg}, title = {Outburst floods from moraine-dammed lakes in the Himalayas}, doi = {10.25932/publishup-43607}, url = {http://nbn-resolving.de/urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-436071}, school = {Universit{\"a}t Potsdam}, pages = {124}, year = {2019}, abstract = {The Himalayas are a region that is most dependent, but also frequently prone to hazards from changing meltwater resources. This mountain belt hosts the highest mountain peaks on earth, has the largest reserve of ice outside the polar regions, and is home to a rapidly growing population in recent decades. One source of hazard has attracted scientific research in particular in the past two decades: glacial lake outburst floods (GLOFs) occurred rarely, but mostly with fatal and catastrophic consequences for downstream communities and infrastructure. Such GLOFs can suddenly release several million cubic meters of water from naturally impounded meltwater lakes. Glacial lakes have grown in number and size by ongoing glacial mass losses in the Himalayas. Theory holds that enhanced meltwater production may increase GLOF frequency, but has never been tested so far. The key challenge to test this notion are the high altitudes of >4000 m, at which lakes occur, making field work impractical. Moreover, flood waves can attenuate rapidly in mountain channels downstream, so that many GLOFs have likely gone unnoticed in past decades. Our knowledge on GLOFs is hence likely biased towards larger, destructive cases, which challenges a detailed quantification of their frequency and their response to atmospheric warming. Robustly quantifying the magnitude and frequency of GLOFs is essential for risk assessment and management along mountain rivers, not least to implement their return periods in building design codes. Motivated by this limited knowledge of GLOF frequency and hazard, I developed an algorithm that efficiently detects GLOFs from satellite images. In essence, this algorithm classifies land cover in 30 years (~1988-2017) of continuously recorded Landsat images over the Himalayas, and calculates likelihoods for rapidly shrinking water bodies in the stack of land cover images. I visually assessed such detected tell-tale sites for sediment fans in the river channel downstream, a second key diagnostic of GLOFs. Rigorous tests and validation with known cases from roughly 10\% of the Himalayas suggested that this algorithm is robust against frequent image noise, and hence capable to identify previously unknown GLOFs. Extending the search radius to the entire Himalayan mountain range revealed some 22 newly detected GLOFs. I thus more than doubled the existing GLOF count from 16 previously known cases since 1988, and found a dominant cluster of GLOFs in the Central and Eastern Himalayas (Bhutan and Eastern Nepal), compared to the rarer affected ranges in the North. Yet, the total of 38 GLOFs showed no change in the annual frequency, so that the activity of GLOFs per unit glacial lake area has decreased in the past 30 years. I discussed possible drivers for this finding, but left a further attribution to distinct GLOF-triggering mechanisms open to future research. This updated GLOF frequency was the key input for assessing GLOF hazard for the entire Himalayan mountain belt and several subregions. I used standard definitions in flood hydrology, describing hazard as the annual exceedance probability of a given flood peak discharge [m3 s-1] or larger at the breach location. I coupled the empirical frequency of GLOFs per region to simulations of physically plausible peak discharges from all existing ~5,000 lakes in the Himalayas. Using an extreme-value model, I could hence calculate flood return periods. I found that the contemporary 100-year GLOF discharge (the flood level that is reached or exceeded on average once in 100 years) is 20,600+2,200/-2,300 m3 s-1 for the entire Himalayas. Given the spatial and temporal distribution of historic GLOFs, contemporary GLOF hazard is highest in the Eastern Himalayas, and lower for regions with rarer GLOF abundance. I also calculated GLOF hazard for some 9,500 overdeepenings, which could expose and fill with water, if all Himalayan glaciers have melted eventually. Assuming that the current GLOF rate remains unchanged, the 100-year GLOF discharge could double (41,700+5,500/-4,700 m3 s-1), while the regional GLOF hazard may increase largest in the Karakoram. To conclude, these three stages-from GLOF detection, to analysing their frequency and estimating regional GLOF hazard-provide a framework for modern GLOF hazard assessment. Given the rapidly growing population, infrastructure, and hydropower projects in the Himalayas, this thesis assists in quantifying the purely climate-driven contribution to hazard and risk from GLOFs.}, language = {en} } @article{AyzelHeistermannWinterrath2019, author = {Ayzel, Georgy and Heistermann, Maik and Winterrath, Tanja}, title = {Optical flow models as an open benchmark for radar-based precipitation nowcasting (rainymotion v0.1)}, series = {Geoscientific model development}, journal = {Geoscientific model development}, number = {12}, publisher = {Copernicus Publications}, address = {G{\"o}ttingen}, issn = {1991-9603}, doi = {10.5194/gmd-12-1387-2019}, pages = {1387 -- 1402}, year = {2019}, abstract = {Quantitative precipitation nowcasting (QPN) has become an essential technique in various application contexts, such as early warning or urban sewage control. A common heuristic prediction approach is to track the motion of precipitation features from a sequence of weather radar images and then to displace the precipitation field to the imminent future (minutes to hours) based on that motion, assuming that the intensity of the features remains constant ("Lagrangian persistence"). In that context, "optical flow" has become one of the most popular tracking techniques. Yet the present landscape of computational QPN models still struggles with producing open software implementations. Focusing on this gap, we have developed and extensively benchmarked a stack of models based on different optical flow algorithms for the tracking step and a set of parsimonious extrapolation procedures based on image warping and advection. We demonstrate that these models provide skillful predictions comparable with or even superior to state-of-the-art operational software. Our software library ("rainymotion") for precipitation nowcasting is written in the Python programming language and openly available at GitHub (https://github.com/hydrogo/rainymotion, Ayzel et al., 2019). That way, the library may serve as a tool for providing fast, free, and transparent solutions that could serve as a benchmark for further model development and hypothesis testing - a benchmark that is far more advanced than the conventional benchmark of Eulerian persistence commonly used in QPN verification experiments.}, language = {en} } @misc{AyzelHeistermannWinterrath2019, author = {Ayzel, Georgy and Heistermann, Maik and Winterrath, Tanja}, title = {Optical flow models as an open benchmark for radar-based precipitation nowcasting (rainymotion v0.1)}, series = {Postprints der Universit{\"a}t Potsdam : Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe}, journal = {Postprints der Universit{\"a}t Potsdam : Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe}, number = {709}, issn = {1866-8372}, doi = {10.25932/publishup-42933}, url = {http://nbn-resolving.de/urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-429333}, pages = {16}, year = {2019}, abstract = {Quantitative precipitation nowcasting (QPN) has become an essential technique in various application contexts, such as early warning or urban sewage control. A common heuristic prediction approach is to track the motion of precipitation features from a sequence of weather radar images and then to displace the precipitation field to the imminent future (minutes to hours) based on that motion, assuming that the intensity of the features remains constant ("Lagrangian persistence"). In that context, "optical flow" has become one of the most popular tracking techniques. Yet the present landscape of computational QPN models still struggles with producing open software implementations. Focusing on this gap, we have developed and extensively benchmarked a stack of models based on different optical flow algorithms for the tracking step and a set of parsimonious extrapolation procedures based on image warping and advection. We demonstrate that these models provide skillful predictions comparable with or even superior to state-of-the-art operational software. Our software library ("rainymotion") for precipitation nowcasting is written in the Python programming language and openly available at GitHub (https://github.com/hydrogo/rainymotion, Ayzel et al., 2019). That way, the library may serve as a tool for providing fast, free, and transparent solutions that could serve as a benchmark for further model development and hypothesis testing - a benchmark that is far more advanced than the conventional benchmark of Eulerian persistence commonly used in QPN verification experiments.}, language = {en} } @article{MartinLopezLeisterCruzetal.2019, author = {Martin-Lopez, Berta and Leister, Ines and Cruz, Pedro Lorenzo and Palomo, Ignacio and Gret-Regamey, Adrienne and Harrison, Paula A. and Lavorel, Sandra and Locatelli, Bruno and Luque, Sandra and Walz, Ariane}, title = {Nature's contributions to people in mountains}, series = {PLoS one}, volume = {14}, journal = {PLoS one}, number = {6}, publisher = {PLoS}, address = {San Fransisco}, issn = {1932-6203}, doi = {10.1371/journal.pone.0217847}, pages = {24}, year = {2019}, abstract = {Mountains play a key role in the provision of nature's contributions to people (NCP) worldwide that support societies' quality of life. Simultaneously, mountains are threatened by multiple drivers of change. Due to the complex interlinkages between biodiversity, quality of life and drivers of change, research on NCP in mountains requires interdisciplinary approaches. In this study, we used the conceptual framework of the Intergovernmental Science-Policy Platform on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services (IPBES) and the notion of NCP to determine to what extent previous research on ecosystem services in mountains has explored the different components of the IPBES conceptual framework. We conducted a systematic review of articles on ecosystem services in mountains published up to 2016 using the Web of Science and Scopus databases. Descriptive statistical and network analyses were conducted to explore the level of research on the components of the IPBES framework and their interactions. Our results show that research has gradually become more interdisciplinary by studying higher number of NCP, dimensions of quality of life, and indirect drivers of change. Yet, research focusing on biodiversity, regulating NCP and direct drivers has decreased over time. Furthermore, despite the fact that research on NCP in mountains becoming more policy-oriented over time, mainly in relation to payments for ecosystem services, institutional responses remained underexplored in the reviewed studies. Finally, we discuss the relevant knowledge gaps that should be addressed in future research in order to contribute to IPBES.}, language = {en} } @phdthesis{Michalczyk2019, author = {Michalczyk, Anna}, title = {Modelling of nitrogen cycles in intensive winter wheat-summer maize double cropping systems in the North China Plain}, doi = {10.25932/publishup-44421}, url = {http://nbn-resolving.de/urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-444213}, school = {Universit{\"a}t Potsdam}, pages = {X, 154}, year = {2019}, abstract = {The North China Plain (NCP) is one of the most productive and intensive agricultural regions in China. High doses of mineral nitrogen (N) fertiliser, often combined with flood irrigation, are applied, resulting in N surplus, groundwater depletion and environmental pollution. The objectives of this thesis were to use the HERMES model to simulate the N cycle in winter wheat (Triticum aestivum L.)-summer maize (Zea mays L.) double crop rotations and show the performance of the HERMES model, of the new ammonia volatilisation sub-module and of the new nitrification inhibition tool in the NCP. Further objectives were to assess the models potential to save N and water on plot and county scale, as well as on short and long-term. Additionally, improved management strategies with the help of a model-based nitrogen fertiliser recommendation (NFR) and adapted irrigation, should be found. Results showed that the HERMES model performed well under growing conditions of the NCP and was able to describe the relevant processes related to soil-plant interactions concerning N and water during a 2.5 year field experiment. No differences in grain yield between the real-time model-based NFR and the other treatments of the experiments on plot scale in Quzhou County could be found. Simulations with increasing amounts of irrigation resulted in significantly higher N leaching, higher N requirements of the NFR and reduced yields. Thus, conventional flood irrigation as currently practised by the farmers bears great uncertainties and exact irrigation amounts should be known for future simulation studies. In the best-practice scenario simulation on plot-scale, N input and N leaching, but also irrigation water could be reduced strongly within 2 years. Thus, the model-based NFR in combination with adapted irrigation had the highest potential to reduce nitrate leaching, compared to farmers practice and mineral N (Nmin)-reduced treatments. Also the calibrated and validated ammonia volatilisation sub-module of the HERMES model worked well under the climatic and soil conditions of northern China. Simple ammonia volatilisation approaches gave also satisfying results compared to process-oriented approaches. During the simulation with Ammonium sulphate Nitrate with nitrification inhibitor (ASNDMPP) ammonia volatilisation was higher than in the simulation without nitrification inhibitor, while the result for nitrate leaching was the opposite. Although nitrification worked well in the model, nitrification-born nitrous oxide emissions should be considered in future. Results of the simulated annual long-term (31 years) N losses in whole Quzhou County in Hebei Province were 296.8 kg N ha-1 under common farmers practice treatment and 101.7 kg N ha-1 under optimised treatment including NFR and automated irrigation (OPTai). Spatial differences in simulated N losses throughout Quzhou County, could only be found due to different N inputs. Simulations of an optimised treatment, could save on average more than 260 kg N ha-1a-1 from fertiliser input and 190 kg N ha-1a-1 from N losses and around 115.7 mm a-1 of water, compared to farmers practice. These long-term simulation results showed lower N and water saving potential, compared to short-term simulations and underline the necessity of long-term simulations to overcome the effect of high initial N stocks in soil. Additionally, the OPTai worked best on clay loam soil except for a high simulated denitrification loss, while the simulations using farmers practice irrigation could not match the actual water needs resulting in yield decline, especially for winter wheat. Thus, a precise adaption of management to actual weather conditions and plant growth needs is necessary for future simulations. However, the optimised treatments did not seem to be able to maintain the soil organic matter pools, even with full crop residue input. Extra organic inputs seem to be required to maintain soil quality in the optimised treatments. HERMES is a relatively simple model, with regard to data input requirements, to simulate the N cycle. It can offer interpretation of management options on plot, on county and regional scale for extension and research staff. Also in combination with other N and water saving methods the model promises to be a useful tool.}, language = {en} } @article{SchmidtNendelFunketal.2019, author = {Schmidt, Martin and Nendel, Claas and Funk, Roger and Mitchell, Matthew G. E. and Lischeid, Gunnar}, title = {Modeling Yields Response to Shading in the Field-to-Forest Transition Zones in Heterogeneous Landscapes}, series = {Agriculture}, volume = {9}, journal = {Agriculture}, number = {1}, publisher = {MDPI}, address = {Basel}, issn = {2077-0472}, doi = {10.3390/agriculture9010006}, pages = {15}, year = {2019}, abstract = {In crop modeling and yield predictions, the heterogeneity of agricultural landscapes is usually not accounted for. This heterogeneity often arises from landscape elements like forests, hedges, or single trees and shrubs that cast shadows. Shading from forested areas or shrubs has effects on transpiration, temperature, and soil moisture, all of which affect the crop yield in the adjacent arable land. Transitional gradients of solar irradiance can be described as a function of the distance to the zero line (edge), the cardinal direction, and the height of trees. The magnitude of yield reduction in transition zones is highly influenced by solar irradiance-a factor that is not yet implemented in crop growth models on a landscape level. We present a spatially explicit model for shading caused by forested areas, in agricultural landscapes. With increasing distance to forest, solar irradiance and yield increase. Our model predicts that the shading effect from the forested areas occurs up to 15 m from the forest edge, for the simulated wheat yields, and up to 30 m, for simulated maize. Moreover, we estimated the spatial extent of transition zones, to calculate the regional yield reduction caused by shading of the forest edges, which amounted to 5\% to 8\% in an exemplary region.}, language = {en} } @misc{HellwigTattiSartorietal.2019, author = {Hellwig, Niels and Tatti, Dylan and Sartori, Giacomo and Anschlag, Kerstin and Graefe, Ulfert and Egli, Markus and Gobat, Jean-Michel and Broll, Gabriele}, title = {Modeling spatial patterns of humus forms in montane and subalpine forests}, series = {Postprints der Universit{\"a}t Potsdam : Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe}, journal = {Postprints der Universit{\"a}t Potsdam : Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe}, number = {1128}, issn = {1866-8372}, doi = {10.25932/publishup-47226}, url = {http://nbn-resolving.de/urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-472265}, pages = {17}, year = {2019}, abstract = {Humus forms are a distinctive morphological indicator of soil organic matter decomposition. The spatial distribution of humus forms depends on environmental factors such as topography, climate and vegetation. In montane and subalpine forests, environmental influences show a high spatial heterogeneity, which is reflected by a high spatial variability of humus forms. This study aims at examining spatial patterns of humus forms and their dependence on the spatial scale in a high mountain forest environment (Val di Sole/Val di Rabbi, Trentino, Italian Alps). On the basis of the distributions of environmental covariates across the study area, we described humus forms at the local scale (six sampling sites), slope scale (60 sampling sites) and landscape scale (30 additional sampling sites). The local variability of humus forms was analyzed with regard to the ground cover type. At the slope and landscape scale, spatial patterns of humus forms were modeled applying random forests and ordinary kriging of the model residuals. The results indicate that the occurrence of the humus form classes Mull, Mullmoder, Moder, Amphi and Eroded Moder generally depends on the topographical position. Local-scale patterns are mostly related to micro-topography (local accumulation and erosion sites) and ground cover, whereas slope-scale patterns are mainly connected with slope exposure and elevation. Patterns at the landscape scale show a rather irregular distribution, as spatial models at this scale do not account for local to slope-scale variations of humus forms. Moreover, models at the slope scale perform distinctly better than at the landscape scale. In conclusion, the results of this study highlight that landscape-scale predictions of humus forms should be accompanied by local- and slope-scale studies in order to enhance the general understanding of humus form patterns.}, language = {en} } @article{SelleKnorrLischeid2019, author = {Selle, Benny and Knorr, Klaus-Holger and Lischeid, Gunnar}, title = {Mobilisation and transport of dissolved organic carbon and iron in peat catchments-Insights from the Lehstenbach stream in Germany using generalised additive models}, series = {Hydrological processes}, volume = {33}, journal = {Hydrological processes}, number = {25}, publisher = {Wiley}, address = {Hoboken}, issn = {0885-6087}, doi = {10.1002/hyp.13552}, pages = {3213 -- 3225}, year = {2019}, abstract = {During the last decades, increasing exports of both dissolved organic carbon (DOC) and iron were observed from peat catchments in North America and Europe with potential consequences for water quality of streamwater and carbon storages of soils. As mobilisation and transport processes of DOC and iron in peat catchments are only partly understood, the purpose of this study was to elucidate these processes in an intensively monitored and studied system. Specifically, it was hypothesised that dissimilatory iron reduction in riparian peatland soils mobilises DOC initially adsorbed to iron minerals. During stormflow conditions, both DOC and iron will be transported into the stream network. Ferrous iron may be reoxidised at redox interfaces on its way to the stream, and subsequently, ferric iron could be transported together with DOC as complexes. To test these hypotheses, generalised additive models (GAMs) were applied to 14 years of weekly time series of discharge and concentrations of selected solutes measured in a German headwater stream called Lehstenbach. This stream drains a 4.19-km(2) forested mountain catchment; one third of which is covered by riparian peatland soils. We interpreted results of different types of GAM in the way that (a) iron reduction drove the mobilisation of DOC from peatland soils and that (b) both iron and DOC were transported as complexes after their joint mobilisation to and within the steam. It was speculated that low nitrate availability in the uppermost wetland soil layer, particularly during the growing season, promoted iron reduction and thus the mobilisation of DOC. However, the influence of nitrate on the DOC mobilisation remains relatively uncertain. This influence could be further investigated using methods similar to the GAM analysis conducted here for other catchments with long-term data as well as detailed measurements of the relevant species in riparian wetland soils and the adjacent stream network.}, language = {en} } @article{SchmidtLischeidNendel2019, author = {Schmidt, Martin and Lischeid, Gunnar and Nendel, Claas}, title = {Microclimate and matter dynamics in transition zones of forest to arable land}, series = {Agricultural and forest meteorology}, volume = {268}, journal = {Agricultural and forest meteorology}, publisher = {Elsevier}, address = {Amsterdam}, issn = {0168-1923}, doi = {10.1016/j.agrformet.2019.01.001}, pages = {1 -- 10}, year = {2019}, abstract = {Human-driven fragmentation of landscapes leads to the formation of transition zones between ecosystems that are characterised by fluxes of matter, energy and information. These transition zones may offer rather inhospitable habitats that could jeopardise biodiversity. On the other hand, transition zones are also reported to be hotspots for biodiversity and even evolutionary processes. The general mechanisms and influence of processes in transition zones are poorly understood. Although heterogeneity and diversity of land use of fragments and the transition zones between them play an important role, most studies only refer to forested transition zones. Often, only an extrapolation of measurements in the different fragments themselves is reported to determine gradients in transition zones. This paper contributes to a quantitative understanding of agricultural landscapes beyond individual ecotopes, and towards connected ecosystem mosaics that may be beneficial for the provision of ecosystem services.}, language = {en} } @phdthesis{Gonschorek2019, author = {Gonschorek, Julia}, title = {Konzeption und prototypische Umsetzung eines regelbasierten Prozesses zur geovisuellen Auswertung massiver raumzeitlicher Datenbest{\"a}nde von Feuerwehreins{\"a}tzen}, school = {Universit{\"a}t Potsdam}, pages = {80}, year = {2019}, language = {de} } @article{ZollDiehlSiebert2019, author = {Zoll, Felix and Diehl, Katharina and Siebert, Rosemarie}, title = {Integrating sustainability goals in innovation processes}, series = {Sustainability}, volume = {11}, journal = {Sustainability}, number = {14}, publisher = {MDPI}, address = {Basel}, issn = {2071-1050}, doi = {10.3390/su11143761}, pages = {15}, year = {2019}, abstract = {The innovative dual-purpose chicken approach aims at contributing to the transition towards sustainable poultry production by avoiding the culling of male chickens. To successfully integrate sustainability aspects into innovation, goal congruency among actors and clearly communicating the added value within the actor network and to consumers is needed. The challenge of identifying common sustainability goals calls for decision support tools. The objectives of our research were to investigate whether the tool could assist in improving communication and marketing with respect to sustainability and optimizing the value chain organization. Three actor groups participated in the tool application, in which quantitative and qualitative data were collected. The results showed that there were manifold sustainability goals within the innovation network, but only some goals overlapped, and the perception of their implementation also diverged. While easily marketable goals such as 'animal welfare' were perceived as being largely implemented, economic goals were prioritized less often, and the implementation was perceived as being rather low. By visualizing congruencies and differences in the goals, the tool helped identify fields of action, such as improved information flows and prompted thinking processes. We conclude that the tool is useful for managing complex decision processes with several actors involved.}, language = {en} } @misc{ZollDiehlSiebert2019, author = {Zoll, Felix and Diehl, Katharina and Siebert, Rosemarie}, title = {Integrating sustainability goals in innovation processes}, series = {Postprints der Universit{\"a}t Potsdam : Mathematisch Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe}, journal = {Postprints der Universit{\"a}t Potsdam : Mathematisch Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe}, number = {1036}, issn = {1866-8372}, doi = {10.25932/publishup-47342}, url = {http://nbn-resolving.de/urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-473420}, pages = {17}, year = {2019}, abstract = {The innovative dual-purpose chicken approach aims at contributing to the transition towards sustainable poultry production by avoiding the culling of male chickens. To successfully integrate sustainability aspects into innovation, goal congruency among actors and clearly communicating the added value within the actor network and to consumers is needed. The challenge of identifying common sustainability goals calls for decision support tools. The objectives of our research were to investigate whether the tool could assist in improving communication and marketing with respect to sustainability and optimizing the value chain organization. Three actor groups participated in the tool application, in which quantitative and qualitative data were collected. The results showed that there were manifold sustainability goals within the innovation network, but only some goals overlapped, and the perception of their implementation also diverged. While easily marketable goals such as 'animal welfare' were perceived as being largely implemented, economic goals were prioritized less often, and the implementation was perceived as being rather low. By visualizing congruencies and differences in the goals, the tool helped identify fields of action, such as improved information flows and prompted thinking processes. We conclude that the tool is useful for managing complex decision processes with several actors involved.}, language = {en} } @article{ParkBatallaBirgandetal.2019, author = {Park, Jungsu and Batalla, Ramon J. and Birgand, Francois and Esteves, Michel and Gentile, Francesco and Harrington, Joseph R. and Navratil, Oldrich and Lopez-Tarazon, Jos{\´e} Andr{\´e}s and Vericat, Damia}, title = {Influences of Catchment and River Channel Characteristics on the Magnitude and Dynamics of Storage and Re-Suspension of Fine Sediments in River Beds}, series = {Water}, volume = {11}, journal = {Water}, number = {5}, publisher = {MDPI}, address = {Basel}, issn = {2073-4441}, doi = {10.3390/w11050878}, pages = {23}, year = {2019}, abstract = {Fine particles or sediments are one of the important variables that should be considered for the proper management of water quality and aquatic ecosystems. In the present study, the effect of catchment characteristics on the performance of an already developed model for the estimation of fine sediments dynamics between the water column and sediment bed was tested, using 13 catchments distributed worldwide. The model was calibrated to determine two optimal model parameters. The first is the filtration parameter, which represents the filtration of fine sediments through pores of the stream bed during the recession period of a flood event. The second parameter is the bed erosion parameter that represents the active layer, directly related to the re-suspension of fine sediments during a flood event. A dependency of the filtration parameter with the catchment area was observed in catchments smaller than 100 km(2), whereas no particular relationship was observed for larger catchments (>100 km(2)). In contrast, the bed erosion parameter does not show a noticeable dependency with the area or other environmental characteristics. The model estimated the mass of fine sediments released from the sediment bed to the water column during flood events in the 13 catchments within 23\% bias.}, language = {en} } @article{FreymarkBottCacaceetal.2019, author = {Freymark, Jessica and Bott, Judith and Cacace, Mauro and Ziegler, Moritz 0. and Scheck-Wenderoth, Magdalena}, title = {Influence of the Main Border Faults on the 3D Hydraulic Field of the Central Upper Rhine Graben}, series = {Geofluids}, journal = {Geofluids}, publisher = {Wiley-Hindawi}, address = {London}, issn = {1468-8115}, doi = {10.1155/2019/7520714}, pages = {21}, year = {2019}, abstract = {The Upper Rhine Graben (URG) is an active rift with a high geothermal potential. Despite being a well-studied area, the three-dimensional interaction of the main controlling factors of the thermal and hydraulic regime is still not fully understood. Therefore, we have used a data-based 3D structural model of the lithological configuration of the central URG for some conceptual numerical experiments of 3D coupled simulations of fluid and heat transport. To assess the influence of the main faults bordering the graben on the hydraulic and the deep thermal field, we carried out a sensitivity analysis on fault width and permeability. Depending on the assigned width and permeability of the main border faults, fluid velocity and temperatures are affected only in the direct proximity of the respective border faults. Hence, the hydraulic characteristics of these major faults do not significantly influence the graben-wide groundwater flow patterns. Instead, the different scenarios tested provide a consistent image of the main characteristics of fluid and heat transport as they have in common: (1) a topography-driven basin-wide fluid flow perpendicular to the rift axis from the graben shoulders to the rift center, (2) a N/NE-directed flow parallel to the rift axis in the center of the rift and, (3) a pronounced upflow of hot fluids along the rift central axis, where the streams from both sides of the rift merge. This upflow axis is predicted to occur predominantly in the center of the URG (northern and southern model area) and shifted towards the eastern boundary fault (central model area).}, language = {en} } @article{JingHesseKumaretal.2019, author = {Jing, Miao and Hesse, Falk and Kumar, Rohini and Kolditz, Olaf and Kalbacher, Thomas and Attinger, Sabine}, title = {Influence of input and parameter uncertainty on the prediction of catchment-scale groundwater travel time distributions}, series = {Hydrology and earth system sciences : HESS}, volume = {23}, journal = {Hydrology and earth system sciences : HESS}, number = {1}, publisher = {Copernicus}, address = {G{\"o}ttingen}, issn = {1027-5606}, doi = {10.5194/hess-23-171-2019}, pages = {171 -- 190}, year = {2019}, abstract = {Groundwater travel time distributions (TTDs) provide a robust description of the subsurface mixing behavior and hydrological response of a subsurface system. Lagrangian particle tracking is often used to derive the groundwater TTDs. The reliability of this approach is subjected to the uncertainty of external forcings, internal hydraulic properties, and the interplay between them. Here, we evaluate the uncertainty of catchment groundwater TTDs in an agricultural catchment using a 3-D groundwater model with an overall focus on revealing the relationship between external forcing, internal hydraulic properties, and TTD predictions. Eight recharge realizations are sampled from a high-resolution dataset of land surface fluxes and states. Calibration-constrained hydraulic conductivity fields (Ks fields) are stochastically generated using the null-space Monte Carlo (NSMC) method for each recharge realization. The random walk particle tracking (RWPT) method is used to track the pathways of particles and compute travel times. Moreover, an analytical model under the random sampling (RS) assumption is fit against the numerical solutions, serving as a reference for the mixing behavior of the model domain. The StorAge Selection (SAS) function is used to interpret the results in terms of quantifying the systematic preference for discharging young/old water. The simulation results reveal the primary effect of recharge on the predicted mean travel time (MTT). The different realizations of calibration-constrained Ks fields moderately magnify or attenuate the predicted MTTs. The analytical model does not properly replicate the numerical solution, and it underestimates the mean travel time. Simulated SAS functions indicate an overall preference for young water for all realizations. The spatial pattern of recharge controls the shape and breadth of simulated TTDs and SAS functions by changing the spatial distribution of particles' pathways. In conclusion, overlooking the spatial nonuniformity and uncertainty of input (forcing) will result in biased travel time predictions. We also highlight the worth of reliable observations in reducing predictive uncertainty and the good interpretability of SAS functions in terms of understanding catchment transport processes.}, language = {en} } @article{LeueHoffmannHieroldetal.2019, author = {Leue, Martin and Hoffmann, Carsten and Hierold, Wilfried and Sommer, Michael}, title = {In-situ multi-sensor characterization of soil cores along an erosion deposition gradient}, series = {Catena : an interdisciplinary journal of soil science, hydrology, geomorphology focusing on geoecology and landscape evolution}, volume = {182}, journal = {Catena : an interdisciplinary journal of soil science, hydrology, geomorphology focusing on geoecology and landscape evolution}, publisher = {Elsevier}, address = {Amsterdam}, issn = {0341-8162}, doi = {10.1016/j.catena.2019.104140}, pages = {11}, year = {2019}, abstract = {Soil landscape research is faced with wide-ranging questions of soil erosion, precision farming, and agricultural risk management. Digital Soil Morphometrics is a powerful tool to provide respective answers or recommendations but requires soil data from the pedon-to-field scale with high horizontal and vertical resolutions, including the subsoil. We present an efficient sampling and measurement method for easily obtainable soil driving cores with low-destructive preparation. Elemental contents and soil organic and mineral matter composition were measured rapidly and in large numbers using a multi-sensor approach, i.e., visible and near infrared (Vis-NIR), diffuse reflectance infrared Fourier transform (DRIFT), and X-ray fluorescence (XRF) spectroscopy. The suitability of the approach with respect to three-dimensional soil landscape models was tested using soils along a slope representing different stages of erosion and deposition in a hummocky landscape under arable land use (Calcaric Regosols, Calcic Luvisols, Luvic Stagnosols, Gleyic-Colluvic Regosols). The combination of soil core sampling, pedological description, and three spectroscopic techniques enabled rapid determination and interpretation of horizontal and vertical spatial distributions of soil organic carbon (SOC), soil organic and mineral matter composition, as well as CaCO3, Fe, and Mn contents. Depth profiles for SOC, CaCO3, and Fe contents were suitable indicators for site-specific degrees of erosion and matter transport processes at the pedon-to-field scale. Fe and Mn profiles helped identifying zones of reductive and oxic domains in subsoils (gleyzation). Further methodical developments should implement plant-availability of nutrients, characterization of Fe oxides, and calibration of the spectroscopic techniques to field-moist samples.}, language = {en} } @article{IrrgangLantuitGordonetal.2019, author = {Irrgang, Anna Maria and Lantuit, Hugues and Gordon, Richard R. and Piskor, Ashley and Manson, Gavin K.}, title = {Impacts of past and future coastal changes on the Yukon coast - threats for cultural sites, infrastructure, and travel routes}, series = {Arctic Science}, volume = {5}, journal = {Arctic Science}, number = {2}, publisher = {Canadian Science Publishing}, address = {Ottawa}, issn = {2368-7460}, doi = {10.1139/as-2017-0041}, pages = {107 -- 126}, year = {2019}, abstract = {Yukon's Beaufort coast, Canada, is a highly dynamic landscape. Cultural sites, infrastructure, and travel routes used by the local population are particularly vulnerable to coastal erosion. To assess threats to these phenomena, rates of shoreline change for a 210 km length of the coast were analyzed and combined with socioeconomic and cultural information. Rates of shoreline change were derived from aerial and satellite imagery from the 1950s, 1970s, 1990s, and 2011. Using these data, conservative (S1) and dynamic (S2) shoreline projections were constructed to predict shoreline positions for the year 2100. The locations of cultural features in the archives of a Parks Canada database, the Yukon Archaeological Program, and as reported in other literature were combined with projected shoreline position changes. Between 2011 and 2100, approximately 850 ha (S1) and 2660 ha (S2) may erode, resulting in a loss of 45\% (S1) to 61\% (S2) of all cultural features by 2100. The last large, actively used camp area and two nearshore landing strips will likely be threatened by future coastal processes. Future coastal erosion and sedimentation processes are expected to increasingly threaten cultural sites and influence travelling and living along the Yukon coast.}, language = {en} } @article{WangOswaldGraeffetal.2019, author = {Wang, Wei-shi and Oswald, Sascha and Gr{\"a}ff, Thomas and Lensing, Hermann Josef and Liu, Tie and Strasser, Daniel and Munz, Matthias}, title = {Impact of river reconstruction on groundwater flow during bank filtration assessed by transient three-dimensional modelling of flow and heat transport}, series = {Hydrogeology journal : official journal of the International Association of Hydrogeologists}, volume = {28}, journal = {Hydrogeology journal : official journal of the International Association of Hydrogeologists}, number = {2}, publisher = {Springer}, address = {Berlin ; Heidelberg [u.a.]}, issn = {1431-2174}, doi = {10.1007/s10040-019-02063-3}, pages = {723 -- 743}, year = {2019}, abstract = {Bank filtration (BF) is an established indirect water-treatment technology. The quality of water gained via BF depends on the subsurface capture zone, the mixing ratio (river water versus ambient groundwater), spatial and temporal distribution of subsurface travel times, and subsurface temperature patterns. Surface-water infiltration into the adjacent aquifer is determined by the local hydraulic gradient and riverbed permeability, which could be altered by natural clogging, scouring and artificial decolmation processes. The seasonal behaviour of a BF system in Germany, and its development during and about 6 months after decolmation (canal reconstruction), was observed with a long-term monitoring programme. To quantify the spatial and temporal variation in the BF system, a transient flow and heat transport model was implemented and two model scenarios, 'with' and 'without' canal reconstruction, were generated. Overall, the simulated water heads and temperatures matched those observed. Increased hydraulic connection between the canal and aquifer caused by the canal reconstruction led to an increase of similar to 23\% in the already high share of BF water abstracted by the nearby waterworks. Subsurface travel-time distribution substantially shifted towards shorter travel times. Flow paths with travel times <200 days increased by similar to 10\% and those with <300 days by 15\%. Generally, the periodic temperature signal, and the summer and winter temperature extrema, increased and penetrated deeper into the aquifer. The joint hydrological and thermal effects caused by the canal reconstruction might increase the potential of biodegradable compounds to further penetrate into the aquifer, also by potentially affecting the redox zonation in the aquifer.}, language = {en} } @article{VehKorupWalz2019, author = {Veh, Georg and Korup, Oliver and Walz, Ariane}, title = {Hazard from Himalayan glacier lake outburst floods}, series = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America : PNAS}, volume = {117}, journal = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America : PNAS}, number = {2}, publisher = {National Academy of Sciences}, address = {Washington}, issn = {0027-8424}, doi = {10.1073/pnas.1914898117}, pages = {907 -- 912}, year = {2019}, abstract = {Sustained glacier melt in the Himalayas has gradually spawned more than 5,000 glacier lakes that are dammed by potentially unstable moraines. When such dams break, glacier lake outburst floods (GLOFs) can cause catastrophic societal and geomorphic impacts. We present a robust probabilistic estimate of average GLOFs return periods in the Himalayan region, drawing on 5.4 billion simulations. We find that the 100-y outburst flood has an average volume of 33.5(+3.7)/(-3.7) x 10(6) m(3) (posterior mean and 95\% highest density interval [HDI]) with a peak discharge of 15,600(+2.000)/(-1,800) m(3).S-1. Our estimated GLOF hazard is tied to the rate of historic lake outbursts and the number of present lakes, which both are highest in the Eastern Himalayas. There, the estimated 100-y GLOF discharge (similar to 14,500 m(3).s(-1)) is more than 3 times that of the adjacent Nyainqentanglha Mountains, and at least an order of magnitude higher than in the Hindu Kush, Karakoram, and Western Himalayas. The GLOF hazard may increase in these regions that currently have large glaciers, but few lakes, if future projected ice loss generates more unstable moraine-dammed lakes than we recognize today. Flood peaks from GLOFs mostly attenuate within Himalayan headwaters, but can rival monsoon-fed discharges in major rivers hundreds to thousands of kilometers downstream. Projections of future hazard from meteorological floods need to account for the extreme runoffs during lake outbursts, given the increasing trends in population, infrastructure, and hydropower projects in Himalayan headwaters.}, language = {en} } @article{BubeckDillenardtAlfierietal.2019, author = {Bubeck, Philip and Dillenardt, Lisa and Alfieri, Lorenzo and Feyen, Luc and Thieken, Annegret and Kellermann, Patric}, title = {Global warming to increase flood risk on European railways}, series = {Climatic change : an interdisciplinary, intern. journal devoted to the description, causes and implications of climatic change}, volume = {155}, journal = {Climatic change : an interdisciplinary, intern. journal devoted to the description, causes and implications of climatic change}, number = {1}, publisher = {Springer}, address = {Dordrecht}, issn = {0165-0009}, doi = {10.1007/s10584-019-02434-5}, pages = {19 -- 36}, year = {2019}, abstract = {For effective disaster risk management and adaptation planning, a good understanding of current and projected flood risk is required. Recent advances in quantifying flood risk at the regional and global scale have largely neglected critical infrastructure, or addressed this important sector with insufficient detail. Here, we present the first European-wide assessment of current and future flood risk to railway tracks for different global warming scenarios using an infrastructure-specific damage model. We find that the present risk, measured as expected annual damage, to railway networks in Europe is approx. (sic)581 million per year, with the highest risk relative to the length of the network in North Macedonia, Croatia, Norway, Portugal, and Germany. Based on an ensemble of climate projections for RCP8.5, we show that current risk to railway networks is projected to increase by 255\% under a 1.5 degrees C, by 281\% under a 2 degrees C, and by 310\% under a 3 degrees C warming scenario. The largest increases in risk under a 3 degrees C scenario are projected for Slovakia, Austria, Slovenia, and Belgium. Our advances in the projection of flood risk to railway infrastructure are important given their criticality, and because losses to public infrastructure are usually not insured or even uninsurable in the private market. To cover the risk increase due to climate change, European member states would need to increase expenditure in transport by (sic)1.22 billion annually under a 3 degrees C warming scenario without further adaptation. Limiting global warming to the 1.5 degrees C goal of the Paris Agreement would result in avoided losses of (sic)317 million annually.}, language = {en} } @article{BragaAnchietadeCarvalhoBrosinskyetal.2019, author = {Braga, Brennda and Anchieta de Carvalho, Thayslan Renato and Brosinsky, Arlena and F{\"o}rster, Saskia and Medeiros, Pedro Henrique Augusto}, title = {From waste to resource}, series = {The science of the total environment : an international journal for scientific research into the environment and its relationship with man}, volume = {670}, journal = {The science of the total environment : an international journal for scientific research into the environment and its relationship with man}, publisher = {Elsevier}, address = {Amsterdam}, issn = {0048-9697}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2019.03.083}, pages = {158 -- 169}, year = {2019}, abstract = {Reservoir networks have been established worldwide to ensure water supply, but water availability is endangered quantitatively and qualitatively by sedimentation. Reuse of sediment silted in reservoirs as fertilizer has been proposed, thus transforming nutrient-enriched sediments from waste into resource. The aim of this study is to assess the potential of reusing sediment as a nutrient source for agriculture a semiarid basin in Brazil. where 1029 reservoirs were identified. Sedimentation was modelled for the entire reservoir network, accounting for 7 x 10(5) tons of y(-1)sediment deposition. Nutrients contents in reservoir sediments was analysed and com- pared to nutrients contents of agricultural soils in the catchment. The potential of reusing sediment as fertilizer was assessed for maize crops (Zea mays L) and the sediment mass required to fertilize the soil was computed considering that the crop nitrogen requirement would be fully provided by the sediment. Economic feasibility was analysed by comparing the costs of the proposed practice to those obtained if the area was fertilized by traditional means. Results showed that, where reservoirs fall dry frequently and sediments can be removed by excavation, soil fertilization with sediment presents lower costs than those observed for application of commercial chemical fertilizers. Compared to conventional fertilization, when using sediments with high nutrient content, 25\% of costs could be saved, while when using sediments with low nutrient content costs are 9\% higher. According to the local conditions, sediments with nitrogen content above 1.5 g kg(-1) are cost efficient as nitrogen source. However, physical and chemical analyses are recommended to define the sediment mass to be used and to identify any constraint to the application of the practice, like the high sodium adsorption ratio observed in one of the studied reservoirs, which can contribute to soil salinization. (C) 2019 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.}, language = {en} } @phdthesis{Schmidt2019, author = {Schmidt, Martin}, title = {Fragmentation of landscapes: modelling ecosystem services of transition zones}, doi = {10.25932/publishup-44294}, url = {http://nbn-resolving.de/urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-442942}, school = {Universit{\"a}t Potsdam}, pages = {XV, 103}, year = {2019}, abstract = {For millennia, humans have affected landscapes all over the world. Due to horizontal expansion, agriculture plays a major role in the process of fragmentation. This process is caused by a substitution of natural habitats by agricultural land leading to agricultural landscapes. These landscapes are characterized by an alternation of agriculture and other land use like forests. In addition, there are landscape elements of natural origin like small water bodies. Areas of different land use are beside each other like patches, or fragments. They are physically distinguishable which makes them look like a patchwork from an aerial perspective. These fragments are each an own ecosystem with conditions and properties that differ from their adjacent fragments. As open systems, they are in exchange of information, matter and energy across their boundaries. These boundary areas are called transition zones. Here, the habitat properties and environmental conditions are altered compared to the interior of the fragments. This changes the abundance and the composition of species in the transition zones, which in turn has a feedback effect on the environmental conditions. The literature mainly offers information and insights on species abundance and composition in forested transition zones. Abiotic effects, the gradual changes in energy and matter, received less attention. In addition, little is known about non-forested transition zones. For example, the effects on agricultural yield in transition zones of an altered microclimate, matter dynamics or different light regimes are hardly researched or understood. The processes in transition zones are closely connected with altered provisioning and regulating ecosystem services. To disentangle the mechanisms and to upscale the effects, models can be used. My thesis provides insights into these topics: literature was reviewed and a conceptual framework for the quantitative description of gradients of matter and energy in transition zones was introduced. The results of measurements of environmental gradients like microclimate, aboveground biomass and soil carbon and nitrogen content are presented that span from within the forest into arable land. Both the measurements and the literature review could not validate a transition zone of 100 m for abiotic effects. Although this value is often reported and used in the literature, it is likely to be smaller. Further, the measurements suggest that on the one hand trees in transition zones are smaller compared to those in the interior of the fragments, while on the other hand less biomass was measured in the arable lands' transition zone. These results support the hypothesis that less carbon is stored in the aboveground biomass in transition zones. The soil at the edge (zero line) between adjacent forest and arable land contains more nitrogen and carbon content compared to the interior of the fragments. One-year measurements in the transition zone also provided evidence that microclimate is different compared to the fragments' interior. To predict the possible yield decreases that transition zones might cause, a modelling approach was developed. Using a small virtual landscape, I modelled the effect of a forest fragment shading the adjacent arable land and the effects of this on yield using the MONICA crop growth model. In the transition zone yield was less compared to the interior due to shading. The results of the simulations were upscaled to the landscape level and exemplarily calculated for the arable land of a whole region in Brandenburg, Germany. The major findings of my thesis are: (1) Transition zones are likely to be much smaller than assumed in the scientific literature; (2) transition zones aren't solely a phenomenon of forested ecosystems, but significantly extend into arable land as well; (3) empirical and modelling results show that transition zones encompass biotic and abiotic changes that are likely to be important to a variety of agricultural landscape ecosystem services.}, language = {en} } @misc{ThiekenBubeckRieseetal.2019, author = {Thieken, Annegret and Bubeck, Philip and Riese, Miriam and Ulbrich, Uwe and Kind, Christian and Kaiser, Theresa}, title = {Foreword Heavy Rain Risk Management in Germany}, series = {Hydrologie und Wasserbewirtschaftung}, volume = {63}, journal = {Hydrologie und Wasserbewirtschaftung}, number = {4}, publisher = {Bundesanstalt f{\"u}r Gew{\"a}sserkunde}, address = {Koblenz}, issn = {1439-1783}, pages = {192 -- 192}, year = {2019}, language = {de} } @article{HerppichMartinToetzkeetal.2019, author = {Herppich, Werner B. and Martin, Craig E. and T{\"o}tzke, Christian and Manke, Ingo and Kardjilov, Nikolay}, title = {External water transport is more important than vascular transport in the extreme atmospheric epiphyte Tillandsia usneoides (Spanish moss)}, series = {Plant, cell \& environment : cell physiology, whole-plant physiology, community physiology}, volume = {42}, journal = {Plant, cell \& environment : cell physiology, whole-plant physiology, community physiology}, number = {5}, publisher = {Wiley}, address = {Hoboken}, issn = {0140-7791}, doi = {10.1111/pce.13496}, pages = {1645 -- 1656}, year = {2019}, abstract = {Most epiphytic bromeliads, especially those in the genus Tillandsia, lack functional roots and rely on the absorption of water and nutrients by large, multicellular trichomes on the epidermal surfaces of leaves and stems. Another important function of these structures is the spread of water over the epidermal surface by capillary action between trichome "wings" and epidermal surface. Although critical for the ultimate absorption by these plants, understanding of this function of trichomes is primarily based on light microscope observations. To better understand this phenomenon, the distribution of water was followed by its attenuation of cold neutrons following application of H2O to the cut end of Tillandsia usneoides shoots. Experiments confirmed the spread of added water on the external surfaces of this "atmospheric" epiphyte. In a morphologically and physiologically similar plant lacking epidermal trichomes, water added to the cut end of a shoot clearly moved via its internal xylem and not on its epidermis. Thus, in T. usneoides, water moves primarily by capillarity among the overlapping trichomes forming a dense indumentum on shoot surfaces, while internal vascular water movement is less likely. T. usneoides, occupying xeric microhabitats, benefits from reduction of water losses by low-shoot xylem hydraulic conductivities.}, language = {en} } @article{WeldeabRuehlemannBookhagenetal.2019, author = {Weldeab, Syee and R{\"u}hlemann, Carsten and Bookhagen, Bodo and Pausata, Francesco S. R. and Perez-Lua, Fabiola M.}, title = {Enhanced Himalayan glacial melting during YD and H1 recorded in the Northern Bay of Bengal}, series = {Geochemistry, geophysics, geosystems}, volume = {20}, journal = {Geochemistry, geophysics, geosystems}, number = {5}, publisher = {American Geophysical Union}, address = {Washington}, issn = {1525-2027}, doi = {10.1029/2018GC008065}, pages = {2449 -- 2461}, year = {2019}, abstract = {Ocean-land thermal feedback mechanisms in the Indian Summer Monsoon (ISM) domain are an important but not well understood component of regional climate dynamics. Here we present a O-18 record analyzed in the mixed-layer dwelling planktonic foraminifer Globigerinoides ruber (sensu stricto) from the northernmost Bay of Bengal (BoB). The O-18 time series provides a spatially integrated measure of monsoonal precipitation and Himalayan meltwater runoff into the northern BoB and reveals two brief episodes of anomalously low O-18 values between 16.30.4 and 160.5 and 12.60.4 and 12.30.4 thousand years before present. The timing of these events is centered at Heinrich event 1 and the Younger Dryas, well-known phases of weak northern hemisphere monsoon systems. Numerical climate model experiments, simulating Heinrich event-like conditions, suggest a surface warming over the monsoon-dominated Himalaya and foreland in response to ISM weakening. Corroborating the simulation results, our analysis of published moraine exposure ages in the monsoon-dominated Himalaya indicates enhanced glacier retreats that, considering age model uncertainties, coincide and overlap with the episodes of anomalously low O-18 values in the northernmost BoB. Our climate proxy and simulation results provide insights into past regional climate dynamics, suggesting reduced cloud cover, increased solar radiation, and air warming of the Himalaya and foreland areas and, as a result, glacier mass losses in response to weakened ISM. Plain Language Summary Indian Summer Monsoon rainfall and Himalayan glacier/snow melts constitute the main water source for the densely populated Indian subcontinent. Better understanding of how future climate changes will affect the monsoon rainfall and Himalayan glaciers requires a long climate record. In this study, we create a 13,000-year-long climate record that allows us to better understand the response of Indian Summer Monsoon rainfall and Himalayan glaciers to past climate changes. The focus of our study is the time window between 9,000 and 22,000 years ago, an episode where the global climate experienced large and rapid changes. Our sediment record from the northern Bay of Bengal and climate change simulation indicate that during episodes of weak monsoon, the melting of the Himalayan glaciers increases substantially significantly. This is because the weakening of the monsoon results in less cloud cover and, as a result, the surface receives more sunlight and causes glacier melting.}, language = {en} } @article{GeorgievaGallagherSobczyketal.2019, author = {Georgieva, Viktoria and Gallagher, Kerry and Sobczyk, Artur and Sobel, Edward and Schildgen, Taylor F. and Ehlers, Todd and Strecker, Manfred}, title = {Effects of slab-window, alkaline volcanism, and glaciation on thermochronometer cooling histories, Patagonian Andes}, series = {Earth \& planetary science letters}, volume = {511}, journal = {Earth \& planetary science letters}, publisher = {Elsevier}, address = {Amsterdam}, issn = {0012-821X}, doi = {10.1016/j.epsl.2019.01.030}, pages = {164 -- 176}, year = {2019}, abstract = {Southern Patagonia is a prime example of ongoing oceanic ridge collision and slab-window formation sustained over several million years. The impact of these phenomena on the thermal structure and exhumation of the crust have been mainly assessed with low-temperature thermochronology of bedrock samples. Here, we infer thermal histories from new and existing thermochronological data from the region of most recent ridge collision. In particular, we evaluate the potential far-reaching thermal effects of the evolving slab window, which have previously been considered responsible for patterns of late Miocene reheating associated with back-arc alkaline volcanism. Our model results define protracted cooling since similar to 15 Ma and stepwise exhumation since the late Miocene. The pattern of stepwise exhumation closely matches the onset of Patagonian glaciation at 7 Ma and the successive pulse of glacial incision coeval with neotectonic activity since 3-4 Ma that are also documented by independent geological and geomorphological evidence in the region. Importantly, our findings challenge the recently suggested lack of glacial erosion and incision since 5 Ma in this region. Furthermore, in contrast to previous modelling studies, we find that the available data do not evidence a previously proposed northward-propagating heating event associated with alkaline volcanism. We hypothesize that the anomalous alkaline volcanism in the Patagonian back-arc might be related to trench-orthogonal tears aligned with transform faults in the subducting plate. The substantial differences from the previous modelling procedure on some of the same samples is demonstrated to result from an important lack of convergence in model runs. (C) 2019 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.}, language = {en} } @article{vonSpechtOeztuerkVehetal.2019, author = {von Specht, Sebastian and {\"O}zt{\"u}rk, Ugur and Veh, Georg and Cotton, Fabrice Pierre and Korup, Oliver}, title = {Effects of finite source rupture on landslide triggering}, series = {Solid earth}, volume = {10}, journal = {Solid earth}, number = {2}, publisher = {Copernicus}, address = {G{\"o}ttingen}, issn = {1869-9510}, doi = {10.5194/se-10-463-2019}, pages = {463 -- 486}, year = {2019}, abstract = {The propagation of a seismic rupture on a fault introduces spatial variations in the seismic wave field surrounding the fault. This directivity effect results in larger shaking amplitudes in the rupture propagation direction. Its seismic radiation pattern also causes amplitude variations between the strike-normal and strike-parallel components of horizontal ground motion. We investigated the landslide response to these effects during the 2016 Kumamoto earthquake (M-w 7.1) in central Kyushu (Japan). Although the distribution of some 1500 earthquake-triggered landslides as a function of rupture distance is consistent with the observed Arias intensity, the landslides were more concentrated to the northeast of the southwest-northeast striking rupture. We examined several landslide susceptibility factors: hillslope inclination, the median amplification factor (MAF) of ground shaking, lithology, land cover, and topographic wetness. None of these factors sufficiently explains the landslide distribution or orientation (aspect), although the landslide head scarps have an elevated hillslope inclination and MAF. We propose a new physics-based ground-motion model (GMM) that accounts for the seismic rupture effects, and we demonstrate that the low-frequency seismic radiation pattern is consistent with the overall landslide distribution. Its spatial pattern is influenced by the rupture directivity effect, whereas landslide aspect is influenced by amplitude variations between the fault-normal and fault-parallel motion at frequencies < 2 Hz. This azimuth dependence implies that comparable landslide concentrations can occur at different distances from the rupture. This quantitative link between the prevalent landslide aspect and the low-frequency seismic radiation pattern can improve coseismic landslide hazard assessment.}, language = {en} } @misc{FanScaringiKorupetal.2019, author = {Fan, Xuanmei and Scaringi, Gianvito and Korup, Oliver and West, A. Joshua and van Westen, Cees J. and Tanyas, Hakan and Hovius, Niels and Hales, Tristram C. and Jibson, Randall W. and Allstadt, Kate E. and Zhang, Limin and Evans, Stephen G. and Xu, Chong and Li, Gen and Pei, Xiangjun and Xu, Qiang and Huang, Runqiu}, title = {Earthquake-Induced Chains of Geologic Hazards}, series = {Reviews of geophysics}, volume = {57}, journal = {Reviews of geophysics}, number = {2}, publisher = {American Geophysical Union}, address = {Washington}, issn = {8755-1209}, doi = {10.1029/2018RG000626}, pages = {421 -- 503}, year = {2019}, abstract = {Large earthquakes initiate chains of surface processes that last much longer than the brief moments of strong shaking. Most moderate- and large-magnitude earthquakes trigger landslides, ranging from small failures in the soil cover to massive, devastating rock avalanches. Some landslides dam rivers and impound lakes, which can collapse days to centuries later, and flood mountain valleys for hundreds of kilometers downstream. Landslide deposits on slopes can remobilize during heavy rainfall and evolve into debris flows. Cracks and fractures can form and widen on mountain crests and flanks, promoting increased frequency of landslides that lasts for decades. More gradual impacts involve the flushing of excess debris downstream by rivers, which can generate bank erosion and floodplain accretion as well as channel avulsions that affect flooding frequency, settlements, ecosystems, and infrastructure. Ultimately, earthquake sequences and their geomorphic consequences alter mountain landscapes over both human and geologic time scales. Two recent events have attracted intense research into earthquake-induced landslides and their consequences: the magnitude M 7.6 Chi-Chi, Taiwan earthquake of 1999, and the M 7.9 Wenchuan, China earthquake of 2008. Using data and insights from these and several other earthquakes, we analyze how such events initiate processes that change mountain landscapes, highlight research gaps, and suggest pathways toward a more complete understanding of the seismic effects on the Earth's surface.}, language = {en} } @article{LandholmPradhanKropp2019, author = {Landholm, David M. and Pradhan, Prajal and Kropp, J{\"u}rgen}, title = {Diverging forest land use dynamics induced by armed conflict across the tropics}, series = {Global environmental change : human and policy dimensions}, volume = {56}, journal = {Global environmental change : human and policy dimensions}, publisher = {Elsevier}, address = {Oxford}, issn = {0959-3780}, doi = {10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2019.03.006}, pages = {86 -- 94}, year = {2019}, abstract = {Armed conflicts trigger region-specific mechanisms that affect land use change. Deforestation is presented as one of the most common negative environmental impacts resulting from armed conflicts, with relevant consequences in terms of greenhouse gas emissions and loss of ecosystem services. However, the impact of armed conflict on forests is complex and may simultaneously lead to positive and negative environmental outcomes, i.e. forest regrowth and deforestation, in different regions even within a country. We investigate the impact that armed conflict exerted over forest dynamics at different spatial scales in Colombia and for the global tropics during the period 1992-2015. Through the analysis of its internally displaced population (departures) our results suggest that, albeit finding forest regrowth in some municipalities, the Colombian conflict predominantly exerted a negative impact on its forests. A further examination of georeferenced fighting locations in Colombia and across the globe shows that conflict areas were 8 and 4 times more likely to undergo deforestation, respectively, in the following years in relation to average deforestation rates. This study represents a municipality level, long-term spatial analysis of the diverging effects the Colombian conflict exerted over its forest dynamics over two distinct periods of increasing and decreasing conflict intensity. Moreover, it presents the first quantified estimate of conflict's negative impact on forest ecosystems across the globe. The relationship between armed conflict and land use change is of global relevance given the recent increase of armed conflicts across the world and the importance of a possible exacerbation of armed conflicts and migration as climate change impacts increase.}, language = {en} }