@misc{BubeckAertsdeMoeletal.2016, author = {Bubeck, Philip and Aerts, Jeroen C. J. H. and de Moel, Hans and Kreibich, Heidi}, title = {Preface: Flood-risk analysis and integrated management}, series = {Natural hazards and earth system sciences}, volume = {16}, journal = {Natural hazards and earth system sciences}, publisher = {Copernicus}, address = {G{\"o}ttingen}, issn = {1561-8633}, doi = {10.5194/nhess-16-1005-2016}, pages = {1005 -- 1010}, year = {2016}, language = {en} } @article{BubeckBotzenLaudanetal.2018, author = {Bubeck, Philip and Botzen, W. J. Wouter and Laudan, Jonas and Aerts, Jeroen C. J. H. and Thieken, Annegret}, title = {Insights into flood-coping appraisals of protection motivation theory}, series = {Risk analysis}, volume = {38}, journal = {Risk analysis}, number = {6}, publisher = {Wiley}, address = {Hoboken}, issn = {0272-4332}, doi = {10.1111/risa.12938}, pages = {1239 -- 1257}, year = {2018}, abstract = {Protection motivation theory (PMT) has become a popular theory to explain the risk-reducing behavior of residents against natural hazards. PMT captures the two main cognitive processes that individuals undergo when faced with a threat, namely, threat appraisal and coping appraisal. The latter describes the evaluation of possible response measures that may reduce or avert the perceived threat. Although the coping appraisal component of PMT was found to be a better predictor of protective intentions and behavior, little is known about the factors that influence individuals' coping appraisals of natural hazards. More insight into flood-coping appraisals of PMT, therefore, are needed to better understand the decision-making process of individuals and to develop effective risk communication strategies. This study presents the results of two surveys among more than 1,600 flood-prone households in Germany and France. Five hypotheses were tested using multivariate statistics regarding factors related to flood-coping appraisals, which were derived from the PMT framework, related literature, and the literature on social vulnerability. We found that socioeconomic characteristics alone are not sufficient to explain flood-coping appraisals. Particularly, observational learning from the social environment, such as friends and neighbors, is positively related to flood-coping appraisals. This suggests that social norms and networks play an important role in flood-preparedness decisions. Providing risk and coping information can also have a positive effect. Given the strong positive influence of the social environment on flood-coping appraisals, future research should investigate how risk communication can be enhanced by making use of the observed social norms and network effects.}, language = {en} } @article{HudsonBotzenAerts2019, author = {Hudson, Paul and Botzen, W. J. Wouter and Aerts, Jeroen C. J. H.}, title = {Flood insurance arrangements in the European Union for future flood risk under climate and socioeconomic change}, series = {Global environmental change : human and policy dimensions}, volume = {58}, journal = {Global environmental change : human and policy dimensions}, publisher = {Elsevier}, address = {Oxford}, issn = {0959-3780}, doi = {10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2019.101966}, pages = {13}, year = {2019}, abstract = {Flood risk will increase in many areas around the world due to climate change and increase in economic exposure. This implies that adequate flood insurance schemes are needed to adapt to increasing flood risk and to minimise welfare losses for households in flood-prone areas. Flood insurance markets may need reform to offer sufficient and affordable financial protection and incentives for risk reduction. Here, we present the results of a study that aims to evaluate the ability of flood insurance arrangements in Europe to cope with trends in flood risk, using criteria that encompass common elements of the policy debate on flood insurance reform. We show that the average risk-based flood insurance premium could double between 2015 and 2055 in the absence of more risk reduction by households exposed to flooding. We show that part of the expected future increase in flood risk could be limited by flood insurance mechanisms that better incentivise risk reduction by policyholders, which lowers vulnerability. The affordability of flood insurance can be improved by introducing the key features of public-private partnerships (PPPs), which include public reinsurance, limited premium cross-subsidisation between low- and high-risk households, and incentives for policyholder-level risk reduction. These findings were evaluated in a comprehensive sensitivity analysis and support ongoing reforms in Europe and abroad that move towards risk-based premiums and link insurance with risk reduction, strengthen purchase requirements, and engage in multi-stakeholder partnerships.}, language = {en} } @misc{HudsonBotzenPoussinetal.2019, author = {Hudson, Paul and Botzen, W. J. Wouter and Poussin, Jennifer and Aerts, Jeroen C. J. H.}, title = {Impacts of flooding and flood preparedness on subjective well-being}, series = {Journal of Happiness Studies}, volume = {20}, journal = {Journal of Happiness Studies}, number = {2}, publisher = {Springer Science}, address = {Dordrecht}, issn = {1389-4978}, doi = {10.1007/s10902-017-9916-4}, pages = {665 -- 682}, year = {2019}, abstract = {Flood disasters severely impact human subjective well-being (SWB). Nevertheless, few studies have examined the influence of flood events on individual well-being and how such impacts may be limited by flood protection measures. This study estimates the long term impacts on individual subjective well-being of flood experiences, individual subjective flood risk perceptions, and household flood preparedness decisions. These effects are monetised and placed in context through a comparison with impacts of other adverse events on well-being. We collected data from households in flood-prone areas in France. The results indicate that experiencing a flood has a large negative impact on subjective well-being that is incompletely attenuated over time. Moreover, individuals do not need to be directly affected by floods to suffer SWB losses since subjective well-being is lower for those who expect their flood risk to increase or who have seen a neighbour being flooded. Floodplain inhabitants who prepared for flooding by elevating their home have a higher subjective well-being. A monetisation of the aforementioned well-being impacts shows that a flood requires Euro150,000 in immediate compensation to attenuate SWB losses. The decomposition of the monetised impacts of flood experience into tangible losses and intangible effects on SWB shows that intangible effects are about twice as large as the tangible direct monetary flood losses. Investments in flood protection infrastructure may be under funded if the intangible SWB benefits of flood protection are not taken into account.}, language = {en} } @article{KreibichDiBaldassarreVorogushynetal.2017, author = {Kreibich, Heidi and Di Baldassarre, Giuliano and Vorogushyn, Sergiy and Aerts, Jeroen C. J. H. and Apel, Heiko and Aronica, Giuseppe T. and Arnbjerg-Nielsen, Karsten and Bouwer, Laurens M. and Bubeck, Philip and Caloiero, Tommaso and Chinh, Do T. and Cortes, Maria and Gain, Animesh K. and Giampa, Vincenzo and Kuhlicke, Christian and Kundzewicz, Zbigniew W. and Llasat, Maria Carmen and Mard, Johanna and Matczak, Piotr and Mazzoleni, Maurizio and Molinari, Daniela and Dung, Nguyen V. and Petrucci, Olga and Schr{\"o}ter, Kai and Slager, Kymo and Thieken, Annegret and Ward, Philip J. and Merz, Bruno}, title = {Adaptation to flood risk}, series = {Earth's Future}, volume = {5}, journal = {Earth's Future}, publisher = {Wiley}, address = {Hoboken}, issn = {2328-4277}, doi = {10.1002/2017EF000606}, pages = {953 -- 965}, year = {2017}, abstract = {As flood impacts are increasing in large parts of the world, understanding the primary drivers of changes in risk is essential for effective adaptation. To gain more knowledge on the basis of empirical case studies, we analyze eight paired floods, that is, consecutive flood events that occurred in the same region, with the second flood causing significantly lower damage. These success stories of risk reduction were selected across different socioeconomic and hydro-climatic contexts. The potential of societies to adapt is uncovered by describing triggered societal changes, as well as formal measures and spontaneous processes that reduced flood risk. This novel approach has the potential to build the basis for an international data collection and analysis effort to better understand and attribute changes in risk due to hydrological extremes in the framework of the IAHSs Panta Rhei initiative. Across all case studies, we find that lower damage caused by the second event was mainly due to significant reductions in vulnerability, for example, via raised risk awareness, preparedness, and improvements of organizational emergency management. Thus, vulnerability reduction plays an essential role for successful adaptation. Our work shows that there is a high potential to adapt, but there remains the challenge to stimulate measures that reduce vulnerability and risk in periods in which extreme events do not occur.}, language = {en} } @article{MerzAertsArnbjergNielsenetal.2014, author = {Merz, Bruno and Aerts, Jeroen C. J. H. and Arnbjerg-Nielsen, Karsten and Baldi, M. and Becker, Andrew C. and Bichet, A. and Bloeschl, G. and Bouwer, Laurens M. and Brauer, Achim and Cioffi, F. and Delgado, Jose Miguel Martins and Gocht, M. and Guzzetti, F. and Harrigan, S. and Hirschboeck, K. and Kilsby, C. and Kron, W. and Kwon, H. -H. and Lall, U. and Merz, R. and Nissen, K. and Salvatti, P. and Swierczynski, Tina and Ulbrich, U. and Viglione, A. and Ward, P. J. and Weiler, M. and Wilhelm, B. and Nied, Manuela}, title = {Floods and climate: emerging perspectives for flood risk assessment and management}, series = {Natural hazards and earth system sciences}, volume = {14}, journal = {Natural hazards and earth system sciences}, number = {7}, publisher = {Copernicus}, address = {G{\"o}ttingen}, issn = {1561-8633}, doi = {10.5194/nhess-14-1921-2014}, pages = {1921 -- 1942}, year = {2014}, abstract = {Flood estimation and flood management have traditionally been the domain of hydrologists, water resources engineers and statisticians, and disciplinary approaches abound. Dominant views have been shaped; one example is the catchment perspective: floods are formed and influenced by the interaction of local, catchment-specific characteristics, such as meteorology, topography and geology. These traditional views have been beneficial, but they have a narrow framing. In this paper we contrast traditional views with broader perspectives that are emerging from an improved understanding of the climatic context of floods. We come to the following conclusions: (1) extending the traditional system boundaries (local catchment, recent decades, hydrological/hydraulic processes) opens up exciting possibilities for better understanding and improved tools for flood risk assessment and management. (2) Statistical approaches in flood estimation need to be complemented by the search for the causal mechanisms and dominant processes in the atmosphere, catchment and river system that leave their fingerprints on flood characteristics. (3) Natural climate variability leads to time-varying flood characteristics, and this variation may be partially quantifiable and predictable, with the perspective of dynamic, climate-informed flood risk management. (4) Efforts are needed to fully account for factors that contribute to changes in all three risk components (hazard, exposure, vulnerability) and to better understand the interactions between society and floods. (5) Given the global scale and societal importance, we call for the organization of an international multidisciplinary collaboration and data-sharing initiative to further understand the links between climate and flooding and to advance flood research.}, language = {en} } @article{MysiakSurminskiThiekenetal.2016, author = {Mysiak, Jaroslav and Surminski, Swenja and Thieken, Annegret and Mechler, Reinhard and Aerts, Jeroen C. J. H.}, title = {Brief communication: Sendai framework for disaster risk reduction - success or warning sign for Paris?}, series = {Natural hazards and earth system sciences}, volume = {16}, journal = {Natural hazards and earth system sciences}, publisher = {Copernicus}, address = {G{\"o}ttingen}, issn = {1561-8633}, doi = {10.5194/nhess-16-2189-2016}, pages = {2189 -- 2193}, year = {2016}, abstract = {In March 2015, a new international blueprint for disaster risk reduction (DRR) was adopted in Sendai, Japan, at the end of the Third UN World Conference on Disaster Risk Reduction (WCDRR, 14-18 March 2015). We review and discuss the agreed commitments and targets, as well as the negotiation leading the Sendai Framework for DRR (SF-DRR) and discuss briefly its implication for the later UN-led negotiations on sustainable development goals and climate change.}, language = {en} }