@misc{OzturkPittoreBehlingetal.2020, author = {Ozturk, Ugur and Pittore, Massimiliano and Behling, Robert and R{\"o}ßner, Sigrid and Andreani, Louis and Korup, Oliver}, title = {How robust are landslide susceptibility estimates?}, series = {Zweitver{\"o}ffentlichungen der Universit{\"a}t Potsdam : Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe}, journal = {Zweitver{\"o}ffentlichungen der Universit{\"a}t Potsdam : Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe}, number = {2}, issn = {1866-8372}, doi = {10.25932/publishup-54198}, url = {http://nbn-resolving.de/urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-541980}, pages = {17}, year = {2020}, abstract = {Much of contemporary landslide research is concerned with predicting and mapping susceptibility to slope failure. Many studies rely on generalised linear models with environmental predictors that are trained with data collected from within and outside of the margins of mapped landslides. Whether and how the performance of these models depends on sample size, location, or time remains largely untested. We address this question by exploring the sensitivity of a multivariate logistic regression-one of the most widely used susceptibility models-to data sampled from different portions of landslides in two independent inventories (i.e. a historic and a multi-temporal) covering parts of the eastern rim of the Fergana Basin, Kyrgyzstan. We find that considering only areas on lower parts of landslides, and hence most likely their deposits, can improve the model performance by >10\% over the reference case that uses the entire landslide areas, especially for landslides of intermediate size. Hence, using landslide toe areas may suffice for this particular model and come in useful where landslide scars are vague or hidden in this part of Central Asia. The model performance marginally varied after progressively updating and adding more landslides data through time. We conclude that landslide susceptibility estimates for the study area remain largely insensitive to changes in data over about a decade. Spatial or temporal stratified sampling contributes only minor variations to model performance. Our findings call for more extensive testing of the concept of dynamic susceptibility and its interpretation in data-driven models, especially within the broader framework of landslide risk assessment under environmental and land-use change.}, language = {en} } @article{OzturkPittoreBehlingetal.2021, author = {Ozturk, Ugur and Pittore, Massimiliano and Behling, Robert and R{\"o}ßner, Sigrid and Andreani, Louis and Korup, Oliver}, title = {How robust are landslide susceptibility estimates?}, series = {Landslides}, volume = {18}, journal = {Landslides}, number = {2}, publisher = {Springer}, address = {Heidelberg}, issn = {1612-510X}, doi = {10.1007/s10346-020-01485-5}, pages = {681 -- 695}, year = {2021}, abstract = {Much of contemporary landslide research is concerned with predicting and mapping susceptibility to slope failure. Many studies rely on generalised linear models with environmental predictors that are trained with data collected from within and outside of the margins of mapped landslides. Whether and how the performance of these models depends on sample size, location, or time remains largely untested. We address this question by exploring the sensitivity of a multivariate logistic regression-one of the most widely used susceptibility models-to data sampled from different portions of landslides in two independent inventories (i.e. a historic and a multi-temporal) covering parts of the eastern rim of the Fergana Basin, Kyrgyzstan. We find that considering only areas on lower parts of landslides, and hence most likely their deposits, can improve the model performance by >10\% over the reference case that uses the entire landslide areas, especially for landslides of intermediate size. Hence, using landslide toe areas may suffice for this particular model and come in useful where landslide scars are vague or hidden in this part of Central Asia. The model performance marginally varied after progressively updating and adding more landslides data through time. We conclude that landslide susceptibility estimates for the study area remain largely insensitive to changes in data over about a decade. Spatial or temporal stratified sampling contributes only minor variations to model performance. Our findings call for more extensive testing of the concept of dynamic susceptibility and its interpretation in data-driven models, especially within the broader framework of landslide risk assessment under environmental and land-use change.}, language = {en} } @article{SchoenfeldtPanekWinocuretal.2020, author = {Sch{\"o}nfeldt, Elisabeth and P{\´a}nek, Tom{\´a}š and Winocur, Diego and Silhan, Karel and Korup, Oliver}, title = {Postglacial Patagonian mass movement}, series = {Geomorphology : an international journal on pure and applied geomorphology}, volume = {367}, journal = {Geomorphology : an international journal on pure and applied geomorphology}, publisher = {Elsevier}, address = {Amsterdam}, issn = {0169-555X}, doi = {10.1016/j.geomorph.2020.107316}, pages = {16}, year = {2020}, abstract = {Many of the volcanic plateau margins of the eastern, formerly glaciated, foreland of the Patagonian Andes are undermined by giant landslides (>= 10(8) m(3)). One cluster of such landslides extends along the margin of the Meseta del Lago Buenos Aires (MLBA) plateau that is formed mainly by Neogene-Quaternary basalts. The dry climate is at odds with numerous >2-km long earthflows nested within older and larger compound landslides. We present a hydrological analysis, a detailed geomorphic map, interpretations of exposed landslide interiors, and radiocarbon dating of the El Mirador landslide, which is one of the largest and morphologically most representative landslide. We find that the presence of lakes on top of the plateau, causing low infiltration rates, correlates negatively with the abundance of earthflows on compound landslides along the plateau margins. Field outcrops show that the pattern of compound landslides and earthflows is likely controlled by groundwater seepage at the contact between the basalts and underlying soft Miocene molasse. Numerous peat bogs store water and sediment and are more abundant in earthflow-affected areas than in their contributing catchment areas.
Radiocarbon dates indicate that these earthflows displaced metre-thick layers of peat in the late Holocene (<2.5 ka). We conclude that earthflows of the MLBA plateau might be promising proxies of past hydroclimatic conditions in the Patagonian foreland, if strong earthquakes or gradual crustal stress changes due to glacioisostatic rebound can be ruled out.}, language = {en} } @article{MohrMangaWangetal.2017, author = {Mohr, Christian Heinrich and Manga, Michael and Wang, Chi-Yuen and Korup, Oliver}, title = {Regional changes in streamflow after a megathrust earthquake}, series = {Earth \& planetary science letters}, volume = {458}, journal = {Earth \& planetary science letters}, publisher = {Elsevier}, address = {Amsterdam}, issn = {0012-821X}, doi = {10.1016/j.epsl.2016.11.013}, pages = {418 -- 428}, year = {2017}, abstract = {Moderate to large earthquakes can increase the amount of water feeding stream flows, mobilizing excess water from deep groundwater, shallow groundwater, or the vadose zone. Here we examine the regional pattern of streamflow response to the Maule M8.8 earthquake across Chile's diverse topographic and hydro-climatic gradients. We combine streamflow analyses with groundwater flow modeling and a random forest classifier, and find that, after the earthquake, at least 85 streams had a change in flow. Discharge mostly increased () shortly after the earthquake, liberating an excess water volume of >1.1 km3, which is the largest ever reported following an earthquake. Several catchments had increased discharge of >50 mm, locally exceeding seasonal streamflow discharge under undisturbed conditions. Our modeling results favor enhanced vertical permeability induced by dynamic strain as the most probable process explaining the observed changes at the regional scale. Supporting this interpretation, our random forest classification identifies peak ground velocity and elevation extremes as most important for predicting streamflow response. Given the mean recurrence interval of ∼25 yr for >M8.0 earthquakes along the Peru-Chile Trench, our observations highlight the role of earthquakes in the regional water cycle, especially in arid environments.}, language = {en} } @misc{WangHerzschuhLiuetal.2017, author = {Wang, Yongbo and Herzschuh, Ulrike and Liu, Xingqi and Korup, Oliver and Diekmann, Bernhard}, title = {Reply to Chong Xu's comment on: Wang, Yongbo; Herzschuh, Ulrike; Liu, Xingqi; Korup, Oliver; Diekmann, Bernhard: A high-resolution sedimentary archive from landslide-dammed Lake Mengda, north-eastern Tibetan Plateau. - Journal of Paleolimnology. - 51 (2014), S. 303 - 312}, series = {Journal of paleolimnolog}, volume = {57}, journal = {Journal of paleolimnolog}, publisher = {Springer}, address = {Dordrecht}, issn = {0921-2728}, doi = {10.1007/s10933-016-9937-8}, pages = {163 -- 164}, year = {2017}, language = {en} } @article{VogelOzturkRiemeretal.2017, author = {Vogel, Kristin and Ozturk, Ugur and Riemer, Adrian and Laudan, Jonas and Sieg, Tobias and Wendi, Dadiyorto and Agarwal, Ankit and Roezer, Viktor and Korup, Oliver and Thieken, Annegret}, title = {Die Sturzflut von Braunsbach am 29. Mai 2016 - Entstehung, Ablauf und Sch{\"a}den eines „Jahrhundertereignisses"}, series = {Hydrologie und Wasserbewirtschaftung}, volume = {61}, journal = {Hydrologie und Wasserbewirtschaftung}, number = {3}, publisher = {Bundesanst. f{\"u}r Gew{\"a}sserkunde}, address = {Koblenz}, issn = {1439-1783}, doi = {10.5675/HyWa_2017,3_2}, pages = {163 -- 175}, year = {2017}, abstract = {Am Abend des 29. Mai 2016 wurde der Ort Braunsbach im Landkreis Schw{\"a}bisch-Hall (Baden-W{\"u}rttemberg) von einer Sturzflut getroffen, bei der mehrere H{\"a}user stark besch{\"a}digt oder zerst{\"o}rt wurden. Die Sturzflut war eine der Unwetterfolgen, die im Fr{\"u}hsommer 2016 vom Tiefdruckgebiet Elvira ausgel{\"o}st wurden. Der vorliegende Bericht ist der zweite Teil einer Doppelver{\"o}ffentlichung, welche die Ergebnisse zur Untersuchung des Sturzflutereignisses im Rahmen des DFG-Graduiertenkollegs "Naturgefahren und Risiken in einer sich ver{\"a}ndernden Welt" (NatRiskChange, GRK 2043/1) der Universit{\"a}t Potsdam pr{\"a}sentiert. W{\"a}hrend Teil 1 die meteorologischen und hydrologischen Ereignisse analysiert, fokussiert Teil 2 auf die geomorphologischen Prozesse und die verursachten Geb{\"a}udesch{\"a}den. Dazu wurden Ursprung und Ausmaß des w{\"a}hrend des Sturzflutereignisses mobilisierten und in den Ort getragenen Materials untersucht. Des Weiteren wurden zu 96 betroffenen Geb{\"a}uden Daten zum Schadensgrad sowie Prozess- und Geb{\"a}udecharakteristika aufgenommen und ausgewertet. Die Untersuchungen zeigen, dass bei der Betrachtung von Hochwassergef{\"a}hrdung die Ber{\"u}cksichtigung von Sturzfluten und ihrer speziellen Charakteristika, wie hoher Feststofftransport und sprunghaftes Verhalten insbesondere in bebautem Gel{\"a}nde, wesentlich ist, um effektive Schutzmaßnahmen ergreifen zu k{\"o}nnen.}, language = {de} } @article{VehKorupRoessneretal.2018, author = {Veh, Georg and Korup, Oliver and Roessner, Sigrid and Walz, Ariane}, title = {Detecting Himalayan glacial lake outburst floods from Landsat time series}, series = {Remote sensing of environment : an interdisciplinary journal}, volume = {207}, journal = {Remote sensing of environment : an interdisciplinary journal}, publisher = {Elsevier}, address = {New York}, issn = {0034-4257}, doi = {10.1016/j.rse.2017.12.025}, pages = {84 -- 97}, year = {2018}, abstract = {Several thousands of moraine-dammed and supraglacial lakes spread over the Hindu Kush Himalayan (HKH) region, and some have grown rapidly in past decades due to glacier retreat. The sudden emptying of these lakes releases large volumes of water and sediment in destructive glacial lake outburst floods (GLOFs), one of the most publicised natural hazards to the rapidly growing Himalayan population. Despite the growing number and size of glacial lakes, the frequency of documented GLOFs is remarkably constant. We explore this possible reporting bias and offer a new processing chain for establishing a more complete Himalayan GLOF inventory. We make use of the full seasonal archive of Landsat images between 1988 and 2016, and track automatically where GLOFs left shrinking water bodies, and tails of sediment at high elevations. We trained a Random Forest classifier to generate fuzzy land cover maps for 2491 images, achieving overall accuracies of 91\%. We developed a likelihood-based change point technique to estimate the timing of GLOFs at the pixel scale. Our method objectively detected ten out of eleven documented GLOFs, and another ten lakes that gave rise to previously unreported GLOFs. We thus nearly doubled the existing GLOF record for a study area covering similar to 10\% of the HKH region. Remaining challenges for automatically detecting GLOFs include image insufficiently accurate co-registration, misclassifications in the land cover maps and image noise from clouds, shadows or ice. Yet our processing chain is robust and has the potential for being applied on the greater HKH and mountain ranges elsewhere, opening the door for objectively expanding the knowledge base on GLOF activity over the past three decades.}, language = {en} } @book{DaviesKorupClague2021, author = {Davies, Tim R. and Korup, Oliver and Clague, John J.}, title = {Geomorphology and natural hazards}, series = {Advanced textbook series}, journal = {Advanced textbook series}, publisher = {Wiley}, address = {Hoboken, NJ}, isbn = {978-1-119-99031-4}, pages = {xv, 554}, year = {2021}, abstract = {"In spite of ever-increasing research into natural hazards, the reported damage from natural disasters continues to rise, increasingly disrupting human activities. We, as scientists who study the way in which the part of Earth most relevant to society- the surface-behaves, are disturbed and frustrated by this trend. It appears that the large amounts of funding devoted each year to research into reducing the impacts of natural disasters could be much more effective in producing useful results. At the same time we are aware that society, as represented by its decision makers, while increasingly concerned at the impacts of natural disasters on lives and economies, is reluctant to acknowledge the intrinsic activity of Earth's surface and to take steps to adapt societal behaviour to minimise the impacts of natural disasters. Understanding and managing natural hazards and disasters are beyond matters of applied earth science, and also involve considering human societal, economic and political decisions"}, language = {en} } @article{OzturkWendiCrisologoetal.2018, author = {Ozturk, Ugur and Wendi, Dadiyorto and Crisologo, Irene and Riemer, Adrian and Agarwal, Ankit and Vogel, Kristin and Andres Lopez-Tarazon, Jose and Korup, Oliver}, title = {Rare flash floods and debris flows in southern Germany}, series = {The science of the total environment : an international journal for scientific research into the environment and its relationship with man}, volume = {626}, journal = {The science of the total environment : an international journal for scientific research into the environment and its relationship with man}, publisher = {Elsevier}, address = {Amsterdam}, issn = {0048-9697}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2018.01.172}, pages = {941 -- 952}, year = {2018}, abstract = {Flash floods and debris flows are iconic hazards inmountainous regions with steep relief, high rainfall intensities, rapid snowmelt events, and abundant sediments. The cuesta landscapes of southern Germany hardly come to mind when dealing with such hazards. A series of heavy rainstorms dumping up to 140mm in 2 h caused destructive flash floods and debris flows in May 2016. The most severe damage occurred in the Braunsbach municipality, which was partly buried by 42,000 m(3) of boulders, gravel, mud, and anthropogenic debris from the small catchment of Orlacher Bach (similar to 6 km(2)). We analysed this event by combining rainfall patterns, geological conditions, and geomorphic impacts to estimate an average sediment yield of 14,000 t/km(2) that mostly (similar to 95\%) came from some 50 riparian landslides and channel-bed incision of similar to 2 m. This specific sediment yield ranks among the top 20\% globally, while the intensity-duration curve of the rainstormis similarly in the upper percentile range of storms that had triggered landslides. Compared to similar-sized catchments in the greater region hit by the rainstorms, we find that the Orlacher Bach is above the 95th percentile in terms of steepness, storm-rainfall intensity, and topographic curvatures. The flash flood transported a sediment volume equal to as much as 20-40\% of the Pleistocene sediment volume stored in the Orlacher Bach fan, andmay have had several predecessors in the Holocene. River control structures from 1903 and records of a debris flow in the 1920s in a nearby catchment indicate that the local inhabitants may have been aware of the debris-flow hazards earlier. Such recurring and destructive events elude flood-hazard appraisals in humid landscapes of gentle relief, and broaden mechanistic views of how landslides and debris flows contribute to shaping small and deeply cut tributaries in the southern Germany cuesta landscape.}, language = {en} } @article{OeztuerkMarwanvonSpechtetal.2018, author = {{\"O}zt{\"u}rk, Ugur and Marwan, Norbert and von Specht, Sebastian and Korup, Oliver and Jensen, J.}, title = {A new centennial sea-level record for Antalya, Eastern Mediterranean}, series = {Journal of geophysical research-oceans}, volume = {123}, journal = {Journal of geophysical research-oceans}, number = {7}, publisher = {American Geophysical Union}, address = {Washington}, issn = {2169-9275}, doi = {10.1029/2018JC013906}, pages = {4503 -- 4517}, year = {2018}, abstract = {Quantitative estimates of sea-level rise in the Mediterranean Basin become increasingly accurate thanks to detailed satellite monitoring. However, such measuring campaigns cover several years to decades, while longer-term sea-level records are rare for the Mediterranean. We used a data archeological approach to reanalyze monthly mean sea-level data of the Antalya-I (1935-1977) tide gauge to fill this gap. We checked the accuracy and reliability of these data before merging them with the more recent records of the Antalya-II (1985-2009) tide gauge, accounting for an eight-year hiatus. We obtain a composite time series of monthly and annual mean sea levels spanning some 75 years, providing the longest record for the eastern Mediterranean Basin, and thus an essential tool for studying the region's recent sea-level trends. We estimate a relative mean sea-level rise of 2.2 ± 0.5 mm/year between 1935 and 2008, with an annual variability (expressed here as the standard deviation of the residuals, σresiduals = 41.4 mm) above that at the closest tide gauges (e.g., Thessaloniki, Greece, σresiduals = 29.0 mm). Relative sea-level rise accelerated to 6.0 ± 1.5 mm/year at Antalya-II; we attribute roughly half of this rate (~3.6 mm/year) to tectonic crustal motion and anthropogenic land subsidence. Our study highlights the value of data archeology for recovering and integrating historic tide gauge data for long-term sea-level and climate studies.}, language = {en} } @misc{FischerKorupVehetal.2021, author = {Fischer, Melanie and Korup, Oliver and Veh, Georg and Walz, Ariane}, title = {Controls of outbursts of moraine-dammed lakes in the greater Himalayan region}, series = {Postprints der Universit{\"a}t Potsdam : Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe}, journal = {Postprints der Universit{\"a}t Potsdam : Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe}, issn = {1866-8372}, doi = {10.25932/publishup-52205}, url = {http://nbn-resolving.de/urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-522050}, pages = {21}, year = {2021}, abstract = {Glacial lakes in the Hindu Kush-Karakoram-Himalayas-Nyainqentanglha (HKKHN) region have grown rapidly in number and area in past decades, and some dozens have drained in catastrophic glacial lake outburst floods (GLOFs). Estimating regional susceptibility of glacial lakes has largely relied on qualitative assessments by experts, thus motivating a more systematic and quantitative appraisal. Before the backdrop of current climate-change projections and the potential of elevation-dependent warming, an objective and regionally consistent assessment is urgently needed. We use an inventory of 3390 moraine-dammed lakes and their documented outburst history in the past four decades to test whether elevation, lake area and its rate of change, glacier-mass balance, and monsoonality are useful inputs to a probabilistic classification model. We implement these candidate predictors in four Bayesian multi-level logistic regression models to estimate the posterior susceptibility to GLOFs. We find that mostly larger lakes have been more prone to GLOFs in the past four decades regardless of the elevation band in which they occurred. We also find that including the regional average glacier-mass balance improves the model classification. In contrast, changes in lake area and monsoonality play ambiguous roles. Our study provides first quantitative evidence that GLOF susceptibility in the HKKHN scales with lake area, though less so with its dynamics. Our probabilistic prognoses offer improvement compared to a random classification based on average GLOF frequency. Yet they also reveal some major uncertainties that have remained largely unquantified previously and that challenge the applicability of single models. Ensembles of multiple models could be a viable alternative for more accurately classifying the susceptibility of moraine-dammed lakes to GLOFs.}, language = {en} } @article{PanekKorupLenartetal.2018, author = {Panek, Tomas and Korup, Oliver and Lenart, Jan and Hradecky, Jan and Brezny, Michal}, title = {Giant landslides in the foreland of the Patagonian Ice Sheet}, series = {Quaternary science reviews : the international multidisciplinary research and review journal}, volume = {194}, journal = {Quaternary science reviews : the international multidisciplinary research and review journal}, publisher = {Elsevier}, address = {Oxford}, issn = {0277-3791}, doi = {10.1016/j.quascirev.2018.06.028}, pages = {39 -- 54}, year = {2018}, abstract = {Quaternary glaciations have repeatedly shaped large tracts of the Andean foreland. Its spectacular large glacial lakes, staircases of moraine ridges, and extensive outwash plains have inspired generations of scientists to reconstruct the processes, magnitude, and timing of ice build-up and decay at the mountain front. Surprisingly few of these studies noticed many dozens of giant (≥108 m3) mass-wasting deposits in the foreland. We report some of the world's largest terrestrial landslides in the eastern piedmont of the Patagonian Ice Sheet (PIS) along the traces of the former Lago Buenos Aires and Lago Puyerred{\´o}n glacier lobes and lakes. More than 283 large rotational slides and lateral spreads followed by debris slides, earthflows, rotational and translational rockslides, complex slides and few large rock avalanches detached some 164 ± 56 km3 of material from the slopes of volcanic mesetas, lake-bounding moraines, and river-gorge walls. Many of these landslide deposits intersect with well-dated moraine ridges or former glacial-lake shorelines, and offer opportunities for relative dating of slope failure. We estimate that >60\% of the landslide volume (∼96 km3) detached after the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM). Giant slope failures cross-cutting shorelines of a large Late Glacial to Early Holocene lake ("glacial lake PIS") likely occurred during successive lake-level drop between ∼11.5 and 8 ka, and some of them are the largest hitherto documented landslides in moraines. We conclude that 1) large portions of terminal moraines can fail catastrophically several thousand years after emplacement; 2) slopes formed by weak bedrock or unconsolidated glacial deposits bordering glacial lakes can release extremely large landslides; and 3) landslides still occur in the piedmont, particularly along postglacial gorges cut in response to falling lake levels.}, language = {en} } @article{SchwanghartRyanKorup2018, author = {Schwanghart, Wolfgang and Ryan, Marie and Korup, Oliver}, title = {Topographic and seismic constraints on the vulnerability of himalayan hydropower}, series = {Geophysical research letters}, volume = {45}, journal = {Geophysical research letters}, number = {17}, publisher = {American Geophysical Union}, address = {Washington}, issn = {0094-8276}, doi = {10.1029/2018GL079173}, pages = {8985 -- 8992}, year = {2018}, abstract = {Plain Language Summary The 2015 Gorkha earthquake in Nepal caused severe losses in the hydropower sector. The country temporarily lost similar to 20\% of its hydropower capacity, and >30 hydropower projects were damaged. The projects hit hardest were those that were affected by earthquake-triggered landslides. We show that these projects are located along very steep rivers with towering sidewalls that are prone to become unstable during strong seismic ground shaking. A statistical classification based on a topographic metric that expresses river steepness and earthquake ground acceleration is able to approximately predict hydropower damage during future earthquakes, based on successful testing of past cases. Thus, our model enables us to estimate earthquake damages to hydropower projects in other parts of the Himalayas. We find that >10\% of the Himalayan drainage network may be unsuitable for hydropower infrastructure given high probabilities of high earthquake damages.}, language = {en} } @article{DossetoMayChoietal.2018, author = {Dosseto, Anthony and May, Jan-Hendrik and Choi, Jeong-Heon and Swander, Zachary J. and Fink, David and Korup, Oliver and Hesse, Paul and Singh, Tejpal and Mifsud, Charles and Srivastava, Pradeep}, title = {Late quaternary fluvial incision and aggradation in the Lesser Himalaya, India}, series = {Quaternary science reviews : the international multidisciplinary research and review journal}, volume = {197}, journal = {Quaternary science reviews : the international multidisciplinary research and review journal}, publisher = {Elsevier}, address = {Oxford}, issn = {0277-3791}, doi = {10.1016/j.quascirev.2018.07.035}, pages = {112 -- 128}, year = {2018}, abstract = {Reconstructing how rivers respond to changes in runoff or sediment supply by incising or aggrading has been pivotal in gauging the role of the Indian Summer Monsoon (ISM) as a geomorphic driver in the Himalayas. Here we present new chronological data for fluvial aggradation and incision from the Donga alluvial fan and the upper Alaknanda River, as well as a compilation of previous work. In addition to conventional OSL-SAR (Single-Aliquot Regenerative-Dose) dating method, we have tested and applied pulsed OSL (POSL) dating for quartz samples that include K-rich feldspar inclusions, which is expected to improve the applicability and validity of OSL ages in the Lesser Himalaya. For previously dated deposits, our OSL ages are shown to be systematically older than previously reported ages. These results suggest periods of aggradation in the Alaknanda and Dehradun Valleys mainly between similar to 25 and 35 ka. This most likely reflects decreased stream power during periods of weakened monsoon. In addition, in-situ cosmogenic beryllium-10 was used to infer bedrock surface exposure ages, which are interpreted as episodes of active fluvial erosion. Resulting exposure ages span from 3 to 6 ka, suggesting that strath terraces were exposed relatively recently, and incision was dominant through most of the Holocene. In combination, our results support precipitation-driven fluvial dynamics, which regulates the balance between stream power and sediment supply. On a larger spatial scale, however, fluvial dynamics are probably not spatially homogeneous as aggradation could have been taking place in adjacent catchments while incision dominated in the study area. (C) 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.}, language = {en} } @misc{SamprognaMohorThiekenKorup2021, author = {Samprogna Mohor, Guilherme and Thieken, Annegret and Korup, Oliver}, title = {Residential flood loss estimated from Bayesian multilevel models}, series = {Postprints der Universit{\"a}t Potsdam : Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe}, journal = {Postprints der Universit{\"a}t Potsdam : Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe}, issn = {1866-8372}, doi = {10.25932/publishup-51774}, url = {http://nbn-resolving.de/urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-517743}, pages = {1599 -- 1614}, year = {2021}, abstract = {Models for the predictions of monetary losses from floods mainly blend data deemed to represent a single flood type and region. Moreover, these approaches largely ignore indicators of preparedness and how predictors may vary between regions and events, challenging the transferability of flood loss models. We use a flood loss database of 1812 German flood-affected households to explore how Bayesian multilevel models can estimate normalised flood damage stratified by event, region, or flood process type. Multilevel models acknowledge natural groups in the data and allow each group to learn from others. We obtain posterior estimates that differ between flood types, with credibly varying influences of water depth, contamination, duration, implementation of property-level precautionary measures, insurance, and previous flood experience; these influences overlap across most events or regions, however. We infer that the underlying damaging processes of distinct flood types deserve further attention. Each reported flood loss and affected region involved mixed flood types, likely explaining the uncertainty in the coefficients. Our results emphasise the need to consider flood types as an important step towards applying flood loss models elsewhere. We argue that failing to do so may unduly generalise the model and systematically bias loss estimations from empirical data.}, language = {en} } @article{SamprognaMohorThiekenKorup2021, author = {Samprogna Mohor, Guilherme and Thieken, Annegret and Korup, Oliver}, title = {Residential flood loss estimated from Bayesian multilevel models}, series = {Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences}, volume = {21}, journal = {Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences}, publisher = {European Geophysical Society}, address = {Katlenburg-Lindau}, issn = {2195-9269}, doi = {10.5194/nhess-21-1599-2021}, pages = {1599 -- 1614}, year = {2021}, abstract = {Models for the predictions of monetary losses from floods mainly blend data deemed to represent a single flood type and region. Moreover, these approaches largely ignore indicators of preparedness and how predictors may vary between regions and events, challenging the transferability of flood loss models. We use a flood loss database of 1812 German flood-affected households to explore how Bayesian multilevel models can estimate normalised flood damage stratified by event, region, or flood process type. Multilevel models acknowledge natural groups in the data and allow each group to learn from others. We obtain posterior estimates that differ between flood types, with credibly varying influences of water depth, contamination, duration, implementation of property-level precautionary measures, insurance, and previous flood experience; these influences overlap across most events or regions, however. We infer that the underlying damaging processes of distinct flood types deserve further attention. Each reported flood loss and affected region involved mixed flood types, likely explaining the uncertainty in the coefficients. Our results emphasise the need to consider flood types as an important step towards applying flood loss models elsewhere. We argue that failing to do so may unduly generalise the model and systematically bias loss estimations from empirical data.}, language = {en} } @article{StolleSchwanghartAndermannetal.2018, author = {Stolle, Amelie and Schwanghart, Wolfgang and Andermann, Christoff and Bernhardt, Anne and Fort, Monique and Jansen, John D. and Wittmann, Hella and Merchel, Silke and Rugel, Georg and Adhikari, Basanta Raj and Korup, Oliver}, title = {Protracted river response to medieval earthquakes}, series = {Earth surface processes and landforms : the journal of the British Geomorphological Research Group}, volume = {44}, journal = {Earth surface processes and landforms : the journal of the British Geomorphological Research Group}, number = {1}, publisher = {Wiley}, address = {Hoboken}, issn = {0197-9337}, doi = {10.1002/esp.4517}, pages = {331 -- 341}, year = {2018}, abstract = {Mountain rivers respond to strong earthquakes by rapidly aggrading to accommodate excess sediment delivered by co-seismic landslides. Detailed sediment budgets indicate that rivers need several years to decades to recover from seismic disturbances, depending on how recovery is defined. We examine three principal proxies of river recovery after earthquake-induced sediment pulses around Pokhara, Nepal's second largest city. Freshly exhumed cohorts of floodplain trees in growth position indicate rapid and pulsed sedimentation that formed a fan covering 150 km2 in a Lesser Himalayan basin with tens of metres of debris between the 11th and 15th centuries AD. Radiocarbon dates of buried trees are consistent with those of nearby valley deposits linked to major medieval earthquakes, such that we can estimate average rates of re-incision since. We combine high-resolution digital elevation data, geodetic field surveys, aerial photos, and dated tree trunks to reconstruct geomorphic marker surfaces. The volumes of sediment relative to these surfaces require average net sediment yields of up to 4200 t km-2 yr-1 for the 650 years since the last inferred earthquake-triggered sediment pulse. The lithological composition of channel bedload differs from that of local bedrock, confirming that rivers are still mostly evacuating medieval valley fills, locally incising at rates of up to 0.2 m yr-1. Pronounced knickpoints and epigenetic gorges at tributary junctions further illustrate the protracted fluvial response; only the distal portions of the earthquake-derived sediment wedges have been cut to near their base. Our results challenge the notion that mountain rivers recover speedily from earthquakes within years to decades. The valley fills around Pokhara show that even highly erosive Himalayan rivers may need more than several centuries to adjust to catastrophic perturbations. Our results motivate some rethinking of post-seismic hazard appraisals and infrastructural planning in active mountain regions.}, language = {en} } @article{BloetheRosenwinkelHoeseretal.2018, author = {Bl{\"o}the, Jan H. and Rosenwinkel, Swenja and Hoeser, Thorsten and Korup, Oliver}, title = {Rock-glacier dams in High Asia}, series = {Earth surface processes and landforms : the journal of the British Geomorphological Research Group}, volume = {44}, journal = {Earth surface processes and landforms : the journal of the British Geomorphological Research Group}, number = {3}, publisher = {Wiley}, address = {Hoboken}, issn = {0197-9337}, doi = {10.1002/esp.4532}, pages = {808 -- 824}, year = {2018}, abstract = {Rock glaciers in semiarid mountains contain large amounts of ice and might be important water stores aside from glaciers, lakes, and rivers. Yet whether and how rock glaciers interact with river channels in mountain valleys remains largely unresolved. We examine the potential for rock glaciers to block or disrupt river channels, using a new inventory of more than 2000 intact rock glaciers that we mapped from remotely sensed imagery in the Karakoram (KR), Tien Shan (TS), and Altai (ALT) mountains. We find that between 5\% and 14\% of the rock glaciers partly buried, blocked, diverted or constricted at least 95 km of mountain rivers in the entire study area. We use a Bayesian robust logistic regression with multiple topographic and climatic inputs to discern those rock glaciers disrupting mountain rivers from those with no obvious impacts. We identify elevation and potential incoming solar radiation (PISR), together with the size of feeder basins, as dominant predictors, so that lower-lying and larger rock glaciers from larger basins are more likely to disrupt river channels. Given that elevation and PISR are key inputs for modelling the regional distribution of mountain permafrost from the positions of rock-glacier toes, we infer that river-blocking rock glaciers may be diagnostic of non-equilibrated permafrost. Principal component analysis adds temperature evenness and wet-season precipitation to the controls that characterise rock glaciers impacting on rivers. Depending on the choice of predictors, the accuracy of our classification is moderate to good with median posterior area-under-the-curve values of 0.71-0.89. Clarifying whether rapidly advancing rock glaciers can physically impound rivers, or fortify existing dams instead, deserves future field investigation. We suspect that rock-glacier dams are conspicuous features that have a polygenetic history and encourage more research on the geomorphic coupling between permafrost lobes, river channels, and the sediment cascades of semiarid mountain belts. (c) 2018 John Wiley \& Sons, Ltd.}, language = {en} } @article{KorupSeidemannMohr2019, author = {Korup, Oliver and Seidemann, Jan and Mohr, Christian Heinrich}, title = {Increased landslide activity on forested hillslopes following two recent volcanic eruptions in Chile}, series = {Nature geoscience}, volume = {12}, journal = {Nature geoscience}, number = {4}, publisher = {Nature Publ. Group}, address = {New York}, issn = {1752-0894}, doi = {10.1038/s41561-019-0315-9}, pages = {284 -- 289}, year = {2019}, abstract = {Large explosive eruptions can bury landscapes beneath thick layers of tephra. Rivers subsequently overloaded with excess pyroclastic sediments have some of the highest reported specific sediment yields. Much less is known about how hillslopes respond to tephra loads. Here, we report a pulsed and distinctly delayed increase in landslide activity following the eruptions of the Chaiten (2008) and Puyehue-Cordon Caulle (2011) volcanoes in southern Chile. Remote-sensing data reveal that land-slides clustered in densely forested hillslopes mostly two to six years after being covered by tephra. This lagged instability is consistent with a gradual loss of shear strength of decaying tree roots in areas of high tephra loads. Surrounding areas with comparable topography, forest cover, rainfall and lithology maintained landslide rates roughly ten times lower. The landslides eroded the landscape by up to 4.8 mm on average within 30 km of both volcanoes, mobilizing up to 1.6 MtC at rates of about 265 tC km(-2) yr(-1). We suggest that these yields may reinforce the elevated river loads of sediment and organic carbon in the decade after the eruptions. We recommend that studies of post-eruptive mass fluxes and hazards include lagged landslide responses of tephra-covered forested hillslopes, to avoid substantial underestimates.}, language = {en} } @article{vonSpechtOeztuerkVehetal.2019, author = {von Specht, Sebastian and {\"O}zt{\"u}rk, Ugur and Veh, Georg and Cotton, Fabrice Pierre and Korup, Oliver}, title = {Effects of finite source rupture on landslide triggering}, series = {Solid earth}, volume = {10}, journal = {Solid earth}, number = {2}, publisher = {Copernicus}, address = {G{\"o}ttingen}, issn = {1869-9510}, doi = {10.5194/se-10-463-2019}, pages = {463 -- 486}, year = {2019}, abstract = {The propagation of a seismic rupture on a fault introduces spatial variations in the seismic wave field surrounding the fault. This directivity effect results in larger shaking amplitudes in the rupture propagation direction. Its seismic radiation pattern also causes amplitude variations between the strike-normal and strike-parallel components of horizontal ground motion. We investigated the landslide response to these effects during the 2016 Kumamoto earthquake (M-w 7.1) in central Kyushu (Japan). Although the distribution of some 1500 earthquake-triggered landslides as a function of rupture distance is consistent with the observed Arias intensity, the landslides were more concentrated to the northeast of the southwest-northeast striking rupture. We examined several landslide susceptibility factors: hillslope inclination, the median amplification factor (MAF) of ground shaking, lithology, land cover, and topographic wetness. None of these factors sufficiently explains the landslide distribution or orientation (aspect), although the landslide head scarps have an elevated hillslope inclination and MAF. We propose a new physics-based ground-motion model (GMM) that accounts for the seismic rupture effects, and we demonstrate that the low-frequency seismic radiation pattern is consistent with the overall landslide distribution. Its spatial pattern is influenced by the rupture directivity effect, whereas landslide aspect is influenced by amplitude variations between the fault-normal and fault-parallel motion at frequencies < 2 Hz. This azimuth dependence implies that comparable landslide concentrations can occur at different distances from the rupture. This quantitative link between the prevalent landslide aspect and the low-frequency seismic radiation pattern can improve coseismic landslide hazard assessment.}, language = {en} } @article{VehKorupvonSpechtetal.2019, author = {Veh, Georg and Korup, Oliver and von Specht, Sebastian and R{\"o}ßner, Sigrid and Walz, Ariane}, title = {Unchanged frequency of moraine-dammed glacial lake outburst floods in the Himalaya}, series = {Nature climate change}, volume = {9}, journal = {Nature climate change}, number = {5}, publisher = {Nature Publ. Group}, address = {London}, issn = {1758-678X}, doi = {10.1038/s41558-019-0437-5}, pages = {379 -- 383}, year = {2019}, abstract = {Shrinking glaciers in the Hindu Kush-Karakoram-Himalaya-Nyainqentanglha (HKKHN) region have formed several thousand moraine-dammed glacial lakes(1-3), some of these having grown rapidly in past decades(3,4). This growth may promote more frequent and potentially destructive glacial lake outburst floods (GLOFs)(5-7). Testing this hypothesis, however, is confounded by incomplete databases of the few reliable, though selective, case studies. Here we present a consistent Himalayan GLOF inventory derived automatically from all available Landsat imagery since the late 1980s. We more than double the known GLOF count and identify the southern Himalayas as a hotspot region, compared to the more rarely affected Hindu Kush-Karakoram ranges. Nevertheless, the average annual frequency of 1.3 GLOFs has no credible posterior trend despite reported increases in glacial lake areas in most of the HKKHN3,8, so that GLOF activity per unit lake area has decreased since the late 1980s. We conclude that learning more about the frequency and magnitude of outburst triggers, rather than focusing solely on rapidly growing glacial lakes, might improve the appraisal of GLOF hazards.}, language = {en} } @article{KorzeniowskaKorup2017, author = {Korzeniowska, Karolina and Korup, Oliver}, title = {Object-Based Detection of Lakes Prone to Seasonal Ice Cover on the Tibetan Plateau}, series = {Remote sensing}, volume = {9}, journal = {Remote sensing}, publisher = {MDPI}, address = {Basel}, issn = {2072-4292}, doi = {10.3390/rs9040339}, pages = {23}, year = {2017}, language = {en} } @article{RosenwinkelLandgrafSchwanghartetal.2017, author = {Rosenwinkel, Swenja and Landgraf, Angela and Schwanghart, Wolfgang and Volkmer, Friedrich and Dzhumabaeva, Atyrgul and Merchel, Silke and Rugel, Georg and Preusser, Frank and Korup, Oliver}, title = {Late Pleistocene outburst floods from Issyk Kul, Kyrgyzstan?}, series = {Earth surface processes and landforms : the journal of the British Geomorphological Research Group}, volume = {42}, journal = {Earth surface processes and landforms : the journal of the British Geomorphological Research Group}, publisher = {Wiley}, address = {Hoboken}, issn = {0197-9337}, doi = {10.1002/esp.4109}, pages = {1535 -- 1548}, year = {2017}, language = {en} } @article{KorzeniowskaBuehlerMartyetal.2017, author = {Korzeniowska, Karolina and Buehler, Yves and Marty, Mauro and Korup, Oliver}, title = {Regional snow-avalanche detection using object-based image analysis of near-infrared aerial imagery}, series = {Natural hazards and earth system sciences}, volume = {17}, journal = {Natural hazards and earth system sciences}, publisher = {Copernicus}, address = {G{\"o}ttingen}, issn = {1561-8633}, doi = {10.5194/nhess-17-1823-2017}, pages = {1823 -- 1836}, year = {2017}, abstract = {Snow avalanches are destructive mass movements in mountain regions that continue to claim lives and cause infrastructural damage and traffic detours. Given that avalanches often occur in remote and poorly accessible steep terrain, their detection and mapping is extensive and time consuming. Nonetheless, systematic avalanche detection over large areas could help to generate more complete and up-to-date inventories (cadastres) necessary for validating avalanche forecasting and hazard mapping. In this study, we focused on automatically detecting avalanches and classifying them into release zones, tracks, and run-out zones based on 0.25m near-infrared (NIR) ADS80-SH92 aerial imagery using an object-based image analysis (OBIA) approach. Our algorithm takes into account the brightness, the normalised difference vegetation index (NDVI), the normalised difference water index (NDWI), and its standard deviation (SDNDWI) to distinguish avalanches from other land-surface elements. Using normalised parameters allows applying this method across large areas. We trained the method by analysing the properties of snow avalanches at three 4km\&\#8722;2 areas near Davos, Switzerland. We compared the results with manually mapped avalanche polygons and obtained a user's accuracy of >0.9 and a Cohen's kappa of 0.79-0.85. Testing the method for a larger area of 226.3km\&\#8722;2, we estimated producer's and user's accuracies of 0.61 and 0.78, respectively, with a Cohen's kappa of 0.67. Detected avalanches that overlapped with reference data by >80\% occurred randomly throughout the testing area, showing that our method avoids overfitting. Our method has potential for large-scale avalanche mapping, although further investigations into other regions are desirable to verify the robustness of our selected thresholds and the transferability of the method.}, language = {en} } @article{MohrKorupUlloaetal.2017, author = {Mohr, Christian Heinrich and Korup, Oliver and Ulloa, Hector and Iroume, Andres}, title = {Pyroclastic Eruption Boosts Organic Carbon Fluxes Into Patagonian Fjords}, series = {Global biogeochemical cycles}, volume = {31}, journal = {Global biogeochemical cycles}, publisher = {American Geophysical Union}, address = {Washington}, issn = {0886-6236}, doi = {10.1002/2017GB005647}, pages = {1626 -- 1638}, year = {2017}, abstract = {Fjords and old-growth forests store large amounts of organic carbon. Yet the role of episodic disturbances, particularly volcanic eruptions, in mobilizing organic carbon in fjord landscapes covered by temperate rainforests remains poorly quantified. To this end, we estimated how much wood and soils were flushed to nearby fjords following the 2008 eruption of Chaiten volcano in south-central Chile, where pyroclastic sediments covered >12km(2) of pristine temperate rainforest. Field-based surveys of forest biomass, soil organic content, and dead wood transport reveal that the reworking of pyroclastic sediments delivered similar to 66,500+14,600/-14,500tC of large wood to two rivers entering the nearby Patagonian fjords in less than a decade. A similar volume of wood remains in dead tree stands and buried beneath pyroclastic deposits (similar to 79,900+21,100/-16,900tC) or stored in active river channels (5,900-10,600tC). We estimate that bank erosion mobilized similar to 132,300(+21,700)/(-30,600)tC of floodplain forest soil. Eroded and reworked forest soils have been accreting on coastal river deltas at >5mmyr(-1) since the eruption. While much of the large wood is transported out of the fjord by long-shore drift, the finer fraction from eroded forest soils is likely to be buried in the fjords. We conclude that the organic carbon fluxes boosted by rivers adjusting to high pyroclastic sediment loads may remain elevated for up to a decade and that Patagonian temperate rainforests disturbed by excessive loads of pyroclastic debris can be episodic short-lived carbon sources. Plain Language Summary Fjords and old-growth forests are important sinks of organic carbon. However, the role of volcanic eruptions in flushing organic carbon in fjord landscapes remains unexplored. Here we estimated how much forest vegetation and soils were lost to fjords following the 2008 eruption ofunknownChaiten volcano in south-central Chile. Pyroclastic sediments obliterated near-pristine temperateunknownrainforest, and the subsequent reworking of these sediments delivered in less than a decade similar to 66,000 tC of large wood to the mountain rivers, draining into the nearby Patagonian fjords. A similar volume of wood remains in dead tree stands and buried beneath pyroclastic deposits or stored in active riverunknownchannels. We estimate that similar to 130,000 tC of organic carbon-rich soil was lost to erosion, thus adding to the carbon loads. While much of the wood enters the long-shore drift in the fjord heads, the finerunknownfraction from eroded forest soils is likely to be buried in the fjords at rates that exceed regional estimates by an order of magnitude. We anticipate that these eruption-driven fluxes will remain elevated forunknownthe coming years and that Patagonian temperate rainforests episodically switch from carbon sinks to hitherto undocumented carbon sources if disturbed by explosive volcanic eruptions.}, language = {en} } @article{PatyniakLandgrafDzhumabaevaetal.2017, author = {Patyniak, Magda and Landgraf, Angela and Dzhumabaeva, Atyrgul and Abdrakhmatov, Kanatbek E. and Rosenwinkel, Swenja and Korup, Oliver and Preusser, Frank and Fohlmeister, Jens Bernd and Arrowsmith, J. Ramon and Strecker, Manfred}, title = {Paleoseismic Record of Three Holocene Earthquakes Rupturing the Issyk-Ata Fault near Bishkek, North Kyrgyzstan}, series = {Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America}, volume = {107}, journal = {Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America}, publisher = {Seismological Society of America}, address = {Albany}, issn = {0037-1106}, doi = {10.1785/0120170083}, pages = {2721 -- 2737}, year = {2017}, abstract = {The northern edge of the western central Tien Shan range is bounded by the Issyk-Ata fault situated south of Bishkek, the capital of Kyrgyzstan. Contraction in this thick-skinned orogen occurs with low-strain accumulation and long earthquake recurrence intervals. In the nineteenth to twentieth centuries, a sequence of large earthquakes with magnitudes between 6.9 and 8 affected the northern Tien Shan but left nearly the entire extent of the Issyk-Ata fault unruptured. Here, the only known historic earthquake ruptured in A.D. 1885 (M6.9) along the western end of the Issyk-Ata fault. Because earthquakes in low-strain regions often tend to cluster in time and may promote failure along nearby structures, the earthquake history of the northern Tien Shan represents an exceptional structural setting for studying fault behavior affected by an intraplate earthquake sequence. We present a paleoseismological study from one site (Belek) along the Issyk-Ata fault located east of the A.D. 1885 epicentral area. Our analysis combines a range of tools, including photogrammetry, differential Global Positioning System, 3D visualization, and age modeling with different dating methods (infrared stimulated luminescence, radiocarbon, U-series) to improve the reliability of an event chronology for the trench stratigraphy and fault geometry. We were able to distinguish three different surfacerupturing paleoearthquakes; these affected the area before 10.5 +/- 1.1 cal ka B.P., at similar to 5.6 +/- 1.0 cal ka B.P., and at similar to 630 +/- 100 cal B.P., respectively. Associated paleomagnitudes for the last two earthquakes range between M6.7 and 7.4, with a cumulative slip rate of 0.7 +/- 0.32 mm/yr. We did not find evidence for the A.D. 1885 event at Belek. Our study yielded two main overall results: first, it extends the regional historic and paleoseismic record; second, the documented rupture events along the Issyk-Ata fault suggest that this fault was not affected in its entirety; instead, these events indicate segmented rupture behavior.}, language = {en} } @article{StolleBernhardtSchwanghartetal.2017, author = {Stolle, Amelie and Bernhardt, Anne and Schwanghart, Wolfgang and Hoelzmann, Philipp and Adhikari, Basanta R. and Fort, Monique and Korup, Oliver}, title = {Catastrophic valley fills record large Himalayan earthquakes, Pokhara, Nepal}, series = {Quaternary science reviews : the international multidisciplinary research and review journal}, volume = {177}, journal = {Quaternary science reviews : the international multidisciplinary research and review journal}, publisher = {Elsevier}, address = {Oxford}, issn = {0277-3791}, doi = {10.1016/j.quascirev.2017.10.015}, pages = {88 -- 103}, year = {2017}, language = {en} } @article{SchwanghartBernhardtStolleetal.2016, author = {Schwanghart, Wolfgang and Bernhardt, Anne and Stolle, Amelie and Hoelzmann, Philipp and Adhikari, Basanta R. and Andermann, Christoff and Tofelde, Stefanie and Merchel, Silke and Rugel, Georg and Fort, Monique and Korup, Oliver}, title = {Repeated catastrophic valley infill following medieval earthquakes in the Nepal Himalaya}, series = {Science}, volume = {351}, journal = {Science}, publisher = {American Assoc. for the Advancement of Science}, address = {Washington}, issn = {0036-8075}, doi = {10.1126/science.aac9865}, pages = {147 -- 150}, year = {2016}, abstract = {Geomorphic footprints of past large Himalayan earthquakes are elusive, although they are urgently needed for gauging and predicting recovery times of seismically perturbed mountain landscapes. We present evidence of catastrophic valley infill following at least three medieval earthquakes in the Nepal Himalaya. Radiocarbon dates from peat beds, plant macrofossils, and humic silts in fine-grained tributary sediments near Pokhara, Nepal's second-largest city, match the timing of nearby M > 8 earthquakes in ~1100, 1255, and 1344 C.E. The upstream dip of tributary valley fills and x-ray fluorescence spectrometry of their provenance rule out local sources. Instead, geomorphic and sedimentary evidence is consistent with catastrophic fluvial aggradation and debris flows that had plugged several tributaries with tens of meters of calcareous sediment from a Higher Himalayan source >60 kilometers away.}, language = {en} } @article{SchwanghartWorniHuggeletal.2016, author = {Schwanghart, Wolfgang and Worni, Raphael and Huggel, Christian and Stoffel, Markus and Korup, Oliver}, title = {Uncertainty in the Himalayan energy-water nexus: estimating regional exposure to glacial lake outburst floods}, series = {Environmental research letters}, volume = {11}, journal = {Environmental research letters}, publisher = {IOP Publ. Ltd.}, address = {Bristol}, issn = {1748-9326}, doi = {10.1088/1748-9326/11/7/074005}, pages = {9}, year = {2016}, abstract = {Himalayan water resources attract a rapidly growing number of hydroelectric power projects (HPP) to satisfy Asia's soaring energy demands. Yet HPP operating or planned in steep, glacier-fed mountain rivers face hazards of glacial lake outburst floods (GLOFs) that can damage hydropower infrastructure, alter water and sediment yields, and compromise livelihoods downstream. Detailed appraisals of such GLOF hazards are limited to case studies, however, and a more comprehensive, systematic analysis remains elusive. To this end we estimate the regional exposure of 257 Himalayan HPP to GLOFs, using a flood-wave propagation model fed by Monte Carlo-derived outburst volumes of >2300 glacial lakes. We interpret the spread of thus modeled peak discharges as a predictive uncertainty that arises mainly from outburst volumes and dam-breach rates that are difficult to assess before dams fail. With 66\% of sampled HPP are on potential GLOF tracks, up to one third of these HPP could experience GLOF discharges well above local design floods, as hydropower development continues to seek higher sites closer to glacial lakes. We compute that this systematic push of HPP into headwaters effectively doubles the uncertainty about GLOF peak discharge in these locations. Peak discharges farther downstream, in contrast, are easier to predict because GLOF waves attenuate rapidly. Considering this systematic pattern of regional GLOF exposure might aid the site selection of future Himalayan HPP. Our method can augment, and help to regularly update, current hazard assessments, given that global warming is likely changing the number and size of Himalayan meltwater lakes.}, language = {en} } @article{MunackBloetheFueloepetal.2016, author = {Munack, Henry and Bl{\"o}the, Jan Henrik and F{\"u}l{\"o}p, R. H. and Codilean, Alexandru T. and Fink, D. and Korup, Oliver}, title = {Recycling of Pleistocene valley fills dominates 135 ka of sediment flux, upper Indus River}, series = {Quaternary science reviews : the international multidisciplinary research and review journal}, volume = {149}, journal = {Quaternary science reviews : the international multidisciplinary research and review journal}, publisher = {Elsevier}, address = {Oxford}, issn = {0277-3791}, doi = {10.1016/j.quascirev.2016.07.030}, pages = {122 -- 134}, year = {2016}, language = {en} } @article{PanekKorupMinaretal.2016, author = {Panek, Tomas and Korup, Oliver and Minar, Jozef and Hradecky, Jan}, title = {Giant landslides and highstands of the Caspian Sea}, series = {Geology}, volume = {44}, journal = {Geology}, publisher = {American Institute of Physics}, address = {Boulder}, issn = {0091-7613}, doi = {10.1130/G38259.1}, pages = {939 -- 942}, year = {2016}, language = {en} } @misc{KorzeniowskaBuehlerMauroetal.2017, author = {Korzeniowska, Karolina and B{\"u}hler, Yves and Mauro, Marty and Korup, Oliver}, title = {Regional snow-avalanche detection using object-based image analysis of near-infrared aerial imagery}, url = {http://nbn-resolving.de/urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-403942}, pages = {14}, year = {2017}, abstract = {Snow avalanches are destructive mass movements in mountain regions that continue to claim lives and cause infrastructural damage and traffic detours. Given that avalanches often occur in remote and poorly accessible steep terrain, their detection and mapping is extensive and time consuming. Nonetheless, systematic avalanche detection over large areas could help to generate more complete and up-to-date inventories (cadastres) necessary for validating avalanche forecasting and hazard mapping. In this study, we focused on automatically detecting avalanches and classifying them into release zones, tracks, and run-out zones based on 0.25 m near-infrared (NIR) ADS80-SH92 aerial imagery using an object-based image analysis (OBIA) approach. Our algorithm takes into account the brightness, the normalised difference vegetation index (NDVI), the normalised difference water index (NDWI), and its standard deviation (SDNDWI) to distinguish avalanches from other land-surface elements. Using normalised parameters allows applying this method across large areas. We trained the method by analysing the properties of snow avalanches at three 4 km-2 areas near Davos, Switzerland. We compared the results with manually mapped avalanche polygons and obtained a user's accuracy of > 0.9 and a Cohen's kappa of 0.79-0.85. Testing the method for a larger area of 226.3 km-2, we estimated producer's and user's accuracies of 0.61 and 0.78, respectively, with a Cohen's kappa of 0.67. Detected avalanches that overlapped with reference data by > 80 \% occurred randomly throughout the testing area, showing that our method avoids overfitting. Our method has potential for large-scale avalanche mapping, although further investigations into other regions are desirable to verify the robustness of our selected thresholds and the transferability of the method.}, language = {en} } @article{KorzeniowskaBuehlerMartyetal.2017, author = {Korzeniowska, Karolina and B{\"u}hler, Yves and Marty, Mauro and Korup, Oliver}, title = {Regional snow-avalanche detection using object-based image analysis of near-infrared aerial imagery}, series = {Natural hazards and earth system sciences : NHESS}, volume = {17}, journal = {Natural hazards and earth system sciences : NHESS}, publisher = {Copernicus}, address = {G{\"o}ttingen}, issn = {1561-8633}, doi = {10.5194/nhess-17-1823-2017}, pages = {1823 -- 1836}, year = {2017}, abstract = {Snow avalanches are destructive mass movements in mountain regions that continue to claim lives and cause infrastructural damage and traffic detours. Given that avalanches often occur in remote and poorly accessible steep terrain, their detection and mapping is extensive and time consuming. Nonetheless, systematic avalanche detection over large areas could help to generate more complete and up-to-date inventories (cadastres) necessary for validating avalanche forecasting and hazard mapping. In this study, we focused on automatically detecting avalanches and classifying them into release zones, tracks, and run-out zones based on 0.25 m near-infrared (NIR) ADS80-SH92 aerial imagery using an object-based image analysis (OBIA) approach. Our algorithm takes into account the brightness, the normalised difference vegetation index (NDVI), the normalised difference water index (NDWI), and its standard deviation (SDNDWI) to distinguish avalanches from other land-surface elements. Using normalised parameters allows applying this method across large areas. We trained the method by analysing the properties of snow avalanches at three 4 km-2 areas near Davos, Switzerland. We compared the results with manually mapped avalanche polygons and obtained a user's accuracy of > 0.9 and a Cohen's kappa of 0.79-0.85. Testing the method for a larger area of 226.3 km-2, we estimated producer's and user's accuracies of 0.61 and 0.78, respectively, with a Cohen's kappa of 0.67. Detected avalanches that overlapped with reference data by > 80 \% occurred randomly throughout the testing area, showing that our method avoids overfitting. Our method has potential for large-scale avalanche mapping, although further investigations into other regions are desirable to verify the robustness of our selected thresholds and the transferability of the method.}, language = {en} } @article{MeyerSchwanghartKorupetal.2015, author = {Meyer, Nele Kristin and Schwanghart, Wolfgang and Korup, Oliver and Nadim, F.}, title = {Roads at risk}, series = {Natural hazards and earth system sciences}, volume = {15}, journal = {Natural hazards and earth system sciences}, number = {5}, publisher = {Copernicus}, address = {G{\"o}ttingen}, issn = {1561-8633}, doi = {10.5194/nhess-15-985-2015}, pages = {985 -- 995}, year = {2015}, abstract = {Globalisation and interregional exchange of people, goods, and services has boosted the importance of and reliance on all kinds of transport networks. The linear structure of road networks is especially sensitive to natural hazards. In southern Norway, steep topography and extreme weather events promote frequent traffic disruption caused by debris flows. Topographic susceptibility and trigger frequency maps serve as input into a hazard appraisal at the scale of first-order catchments to quantify the impact of debris flows on the road network in terms of a failure likelihood of each link connecting two network vertices, e.g. road junctions. We compute total additional traffic loads as a function of traffic volume and excess distance, i.e. the extra length of an alternative path connecting two previously disrupted network vertices using a shortest-path algorithm. Our risk metric of link failure is the total additional annual traffic load, expressed as vehicle kilometres, because of debris-flow-related road closures. We present two scenarios demonstrating the impact of debris flows on the road network and quantify the associated path-failure likelihood between major cities in southern Norway. The scenarios indicate that major routes crossing the central and north-western part of the study area are associated with high link-failure risk. Yet options for detours on major routes are manifold and incur only little additional costs provided that drivers are sufficiently well informed about road closures. Our risk estimates may be of importance to road network managers and transport companies relying on speedy delivery of services and goods.}, language = {en} } @article{StolleLangerBloetheetal.2015, author = {Stolle, Amelie and Langer, Maria and Bl{\"o}the, Jan Henrik and Korup, Oliver}, title = {On predicting debris flows in arid mountain belts}, series = {Global and planetary change}, volume = {126}, journal = {Global and planetary change}, publisher = {Elsevier}, address = {Amsterdam}, issn = {0921-8181}, doi = {10.1016/j.gloplacha.2014.12.005}, pages = {1 -- 13}, year = {2015}, abstract = {The use of topographic metrics for estimating the susceptibility to, and reconstructing the characteristics of, debris flows has a long research tradition, although largely devoted to humid mountainous terrain. The exceptional 2010 monsoonal rainstorms in the high-altitude mountain desert of Ladakh and Zanskar, NW India, were a painful reminder of how susceptible arid regions are to rainfall-triggered flash floods, landslides, and debris flows. The rainstorms of August 4-6 triggered numerous debris flows, killing 182 people, devastating 607 houses, and more than 10 bridges around Ladakh's capital of Leh. The lessons from this disaster motivated us to revisit methods of predicting (a) flow parameters such as peak discharge and maximum velocity from field and remote sensing data, and (b) the susceptibility to debris flows from catchment morphometry. We focus on quantifying uncertainties tied to these approaches. Comparison of high-resolution satellite images pre- and post-dating the 2010 rainstorm reveals the extent of damage and catastrophic channel widening. Computations based on these geomorphic markers indicate maximum flow velocities of 1.6-6.7 m s(-1) with runout of up to similar to 10 km on several alluvial fans that sustain most of the region's settlements. We estimate median peak discharges of 310-610 m(3) s(-1), which are largely consistent with previous estimates. Monte Carlo-based error propagation for a single given flow-reconstruction method returns a variance in discharge similar to one derived from juxtaposing several different flow reconstruction methods. We further compare discriminant analysis, classification tree modelling, and Bayesian logistic regression to predict debris-flow susceptibility from morphometric variables of 171 catchments in the Ladakh Range. These methods distinguish between fluvial and debris flow-prone catchments at similar success rates, but Bayesian logistic regression allows quantifying uncertainties and relationships between potential predictors. We conclude that, in order to be robust and reliable, morphometric reconstruction of debris-flow properties and susceptibility requires careful assessment and reporting of errors and uncertainties. (C) 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.}, language = {en} } @article{StruckAndermannHoviusetal.2015, author = {Struck, Martin and Andermann, Christoff and Hovius, Niels and Korup, Oliver and Turowski, Jens M. and Bista, Raj and Pandit, Hari P. and Dahal, Ranjan K.}, title = {Monsoonal hillslope processes determine grain size-specific suspended sediment fluxes in a trans-Himalayan river}, series = {Geophysical research letters}, volume = {42}, journal = {Geophysical research letters}, number = {7}, publisher = {American Geophysical Union}, address = {Washington}, issn = {0094-8276}, doi = {10.1002/2015GL063360}, pages = {2302 -- 2308}, year = {2015}, abstract = {Sediments in rivers record the dynamics of erosion processes. While bulk sediment fluxes are easily and routinely obtained, sediment caliber remains underexplored when inferring erosion mechanisms. Yet sediment grain size distributions may be the key to discriminating their origin. We have studied grain size-specific suspended sediment fluxes in the Kali Gandaki, a major trans-Himalayan river. Two strategically located gauging stations enable tracing of sediment caliber on either side of the Himalayan orographic barrier. The data show that fine sediment input into the northern headwaters is persistent, while coarse sediment comes from the High Himalayas during the summer monsoon. A temporally matching landslide inventory similarly indicates the prominence of monsoon-driven hillslope mass wasting. Thus, mechanisms of sediment supply can leave strong traces in the fluvial caliber, which could project well beyond the mountain front and add to the variability of the sedimentary record of orogen erosion.}, language = {en} } @article{BloetheKorupSchwanghart2015, author = {Bl{\"o}the, Jan Henrik and Korup, Oliver and Schwanghart, Wolfgang}, title = {Large landslides lie low: Excess topography in the Himalaya-Karakoram ranges}, series = {Geology}, volume = {43}, journal = {Geology}, number = {6}, publisher = {American Institute of Physics}, address = {Boulder}, issn = {0091-7613}, doi = {10.1130/G36527.1}, pages = {523 -- 526}, year = {2015}, abstract = {Mass wasting is an important process for denuding hillslopes and lowering ridge crests in active mountain belts such as the Himalaya-Karakoram ranges (HKR). Such a high-relief landscape is likely to be at its mechanical threshold, maintained by competing rapid rock uplift, river incision, and pervasive slope failure. We introduce excess topography, Z(E), for quantifying potentially unstable rock-mass volumes inclined at angles greater than a specified threshold angle. We find that Z(E) peaks along major fluvial and glacial inner gorges, which is also where the majority of 492 large (>0.1 km(2)) rock-slope failures occur in the Himalaya's largest cluster of documented Pleistocene to Holocene bedrock landslides. Our data reveal that bedrock landslides in the HKR chiefly detached from near or below the median elevation, whereas glaciers and rock glaciers occupy higher-elevation bands almost exclusively. Less than 10\% of the area of the HKR is upslope of glaciers, such that possible censoring of evidence of large bedrock landslides above the permanent snow line barely affects this finding. Bedrock landslides appear to preferentially undermine topographic relief in response to fluvial and glacial incision along inner gorges, unless more frequent and smaller undetected failures, or rigorous (peri-)glacial erosion, compensate for this role at higher elevation. Either way, the distinct patterns of excess topography and large bedrock landsliding in the HKR juxtapose two stacked domains of landslide and (peri-)glacial erosion that may respond to different time scales of perturbation. Our findings call for more detailed analysis of vertical erosional domains and their geomorphic coupling in active mountain belts.}, language = {en} } @article{PhilipsWalzBergneretal.2015, author = {Philips, Andrea and Walz, Ariane and Bergner, Andreas G. N. and Gr{\"a}ff, Thomas and Heistermann, Maik and Kienzler, Sarah and Korup, Oliver and Lipp, Torsten and Schwanghart, Wolfgang and Zeilinger, Gerold}, title = {Immersive 3D geovisualization in higher education}, series = {Journal of geography in higher education}, volume = {39}, journal = {Journal of geography in higher education}, number = {3}, publisher = {Routledge, Taylor \& Francis Group}, address = {Abingdon}, issn = {0309-8265}, doi = {10.1080/03098265.2015.1066314}, pages = {437 -- 449}, year = {2015}, abstract = {In this study, we investigate how immersive 3D geovisualization can be used in higher education. Based on MacEachren and Kraak's geovisualization cube, we examine the usage of immersive 3D geovisualization and its usefulness in a research-based learning module on flood risk, called GEOSimulator. Results of a survey among participating students reveal benefits, such as better orientation in the study area, higher interactivity with the data, improved discourse among students and enhanced motivation through immersive 3D geovisualization. This suggests that immersive 3D visualization can effectively be used in higher education and that 3D CAVE settings enhance interactive learning between students.}, language = {en} } @article{UlloaIrournePiccoetal.2015, author = {Ulloa, Hector and Irourne, Andres and Picco, Lorenzo and Korup, Oliver and Lenzi, Mario Aristide and Mao, Luca and Ravazzolo, Diego}, title = {Massive biomass flushing despite modest channel response in the Rayas River following the 2008 eruption of Chaiten volcano, Chile}, series = {Geomorphology : an international journal on pure and applied geomorphology}, volume = {250}, journal = {Geomorphology : an international journal on pure and applied geomorphology}, publisher = {Elsevier}, address = {Amsterdam}, issn = {0169-555X}, doi = {10.1016/j.geomorph.2015.09.019}, pages = {397 -- 406}, year = {2015}, abstract = {The 2008 eruption of Chaiten volcano in southern Chile severely impacted several densely forested river catchments by supplying excess pyroclastic sediment to the channel networks. Our aim is to substantiate whether and how channel geometry and forest stands changed in the Rayas River following the sudden input of pyroclastic sediment. We measured the resulting changes to channel geometry and riparian forest stands along 17.6 km of the impacted gravel-bed Rayas River (294 km(2)) from multiple high-resolution satellite images, aerial photographs, and fieldwork to quantify yield volume characteristics of the forest stands. Limited channel changes during the last 60 years before the eruption reflect a dynamic equilibrium condition of the river corridor, despite the high annual precipitation and the sediment supply from Chaiten and Michinmahuida volcanoes in the headwaters. Images taken in 1945, 2004, and 2005 show that total size of the vegetated channel islands nearly doubled between 1945 and 2004 and remained unchanged between 2004 and 2005. Pyroclastic sediment entering the Rayas River after the 2008 eruption caused only minor average channel widening (7\%), but killed all island vegetation in the study reach. Substantial shifts in the size distribution of in-channel vegetation patches reflect losses in total island area of 46\% from 2005 to 2009 and an additional 34\% from 2009 to 2012. The estimated pulsed release of organic carbon into the channel, mainly in the form of large wood from obliterated island and floodplain forests, was 78-400 tC/km/y and surpasses most documented yields from small mountainous catchments with similar rainfall, forest cover, and disturbance history, while making up between 20\% and 60\% of the annual carbon burial rate of fluvial sediments in the northern Patagonian fjords. We conclude that the carbon footprint of the 2008 Chaiten eruption on the Rayas River was more significant than the measured geomorphic impacts on channel geometry for the first five years following disturbance. The modest post-eruptive geomorphic response in this river is a poor indicator of its biogeochemical response. (C) 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.}, language = {en} } @article{RosenwinkelKorupLandgrafetal.2015, author = {Rosenwinkel, Swenja and Korup, Oliver and Landgraf, Angela and Dzhumabaeva, Atyrgul}, title = {Limits to lichenometry}, series = {Quaternary science reviews : the international multidisciplinary research and review journal}, volume = {129}, journal = {Quaternary science reviews : the international multidisciplinary research and review journal}, publisher = {Elsevier}, address = {Oxford}, issn = {0277-3791}, doi = {10.1016/j.quascirev.2015.10.031}, pages = {229 -- 238}, year = {2015}, abstract = {Lichenometry is a straightforward and inexpensive method for dating Holocene rock surfaces. The rationale is that the diameter of the largest lichen scales with the age of the originally fresh rock surface that it colonised. The success of the method depends on finding the largest lichen diameters, a suitable lichen-growth model, and a robust calibration curve. Recent critique of the method motivates us to revisit the accuracy and uncertainties of lichenometry. Specifically, we test how well lichenometry is capable of resolving the ages of different lobes of large active rock glaciers in the Kyrgyz Tien Shan. We use a bootstrapped quantile regression to calibrate local growth curves of Xanthoria elegans, Aspicilia tianshanica, and Rhizocarpon geographicum, and report a nonlinear decrease in dating accuracy with increasing lichen diameter. A Bayesian type of an analysis of variance demonstrates that our calibration allows discriminating credibly between rock-glacier lobes of different ages despite the uncertainties tied to sample size and correctly identifying the largest lichen thalli. Our results also show that calibration error grows with lichen size, so that the separability of rock-glacier lobes of different ages decreases, while the tendency to assign coeval ages increases. The abundant young (<200 yr) specimen of fast-growing X elegans are in contrast with the fewer, slow-growing, but older (200-1500 yr) R. geographicum and A. tianshanica, and record either a regional reactivation of lobes in the past 200 years, or simply a censoring effect of lichen mortality during early phases of colonisation. The high variance of lichen sizes captures the activity of rock-glacier lobes, which is difficult to explain by regional climatic cooling or earthquake triggers alone. Therefore, we caution against inferring palaeoclimatic conditions from the topographic position of rock-glacier lobes. We conclude that lichenometry works better as a tool for establishing a relative, rather than an absolute, chronology of rock-glacier lobes in the northern Tien Shan. (C) 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.}, language = {en} } @article{KorupRixen2014, author = {Korup, Oliver and Rixen, C.}, title = {Soil erosion and organic carbon export by wet snow avalanches}, series = {The Cryosphere : TC ; an interactive open access journal of the European Geosciences Union}, volume = {8}, journal = {The Cryosphere : TC ; an interactive open access journal of the European Geosciences Union}, number = {2}, publisher = {Copernicus}, address = {G{\"o}ttingen}, issn = {1994-0416}, doi = {10.5194/tc-8-651-2014}, pages = {651 -- 658}, year = {2014}, abstract = {Many mountain belts sustain prolonged snow cover for parts of the year, although enquiries into rates of erosion in these landscapes have focused almost exclusively on the snow-free periods. This raises the question of whether annual snow cover contributes significantly to modulating rates of erosion in high-relief terrain. In this context, the sudden release of snow avalanches is a frequent and potentially relevant process, judging from the physical damage to subalpine forest ecosystems, and the amount of debris contained in avalanche deposits. To quantitatively constrain this visual impression and to expand the sparse literature, we sampled sediment concentrations of n = 28 river-spanning snow-avalanche deposits (snow bridges) in the area around Davos, eastern Swiss Alps, and inferred an orders-of-magnitude variability in specific fine sediment and organic carbon yields (1.8 to 830 t km(-2) yr(-1), and 0.04 to 131 tC km(-2) yr(-1), respectively). A Monte Carlo simulation demonstrates that, with a minimum of free parameters, such variability is inherent to the geometric scaling used for computing specific yields. Moreover, the widely applied method of linearly extrapolating plot scale sample data may be prone to substantial under- or overestimates. A comparison of our inferred yields with previously published work demonstrates the relevance of wet snow avalanches as prominent agents of soil erosion and transporters of biogeochemical constituents to mountain rivers. Given that a number of snow bridges persisted below the insulating debris cover well into the summer months, snow-avalanche deposits also contribute to regulating in-channel sediment and organic debris storage on seasonal timescales. Finally, our results underline the potential shortcomings of neglecting erosional processes in the winter and spring months in mountainous terrain subjected to prominent snow cover.}, language = {en} } @article{VogelRiggelsenKorupetal.2014, author = {Vogel, Kristin and Riggelsen, Carsten and Korup, Oliver and Scherbaum, Frank}, title = {Bayesian network learning for natural hazard analyses}, series = {Natural hazards and earth system sciences}, volume = {14}, journal = {Natural hazards and earth system sciences}, number = {9}, publisher = {Copernicus}, address = {G{\"o}ttingen}, issn = {1561-8633}, doi = {10.5194/nhess-14-2605-2014}, pages = {2605 -- 2626}, year = {2014}, abstract = {Modern natural hazards research requires dealing with several uncertainties that arise from limited process knowledge, measurement errors, censored and incomplete observations, and the intrinsic randomness of the governing processes. Nevertheless, deterministic analyses are still widely used in quantitative hazard assessments despite the pitfall of misestimating the hazard and any ensuing risks. In this paper we show that Bayesian networks offer a flexible framework for capturing and expressing a broad range of uncertainties encountered in natural hazard assessments. Although Bayesian networks are well studied in theory, their application to real-world data is far from straightforward, and requires specific tailoring and adaptation of existing algorithms. We offer suggestions as how to tackle frequently arising problems in this context and mainly concentrate on the handling of continuous variables, incomplete data sets, and the interaction of both. By way of three case studies from earthquake, flood, and landslide research, we demonstrate the method of data-driven Bayesian network learning, and showcase the flexibility, applicability, and benefits of this approach. Our results offer fresh and partly counterintuitive insights into well-studied multivariate problems of earthquake-induced ground motion prediction, accurate flood damage quantification, and spatially explicit landslide prediction at the regional scale. In particular, we highlight how Bayesian networks help to express information flow and independence assumptions between candidate predictors. Such knowledge is pivotal in providing scientists and decision makers with well-informed strategies for selecting adequate predictor variables for quantitative natural hazard assessments.}, language = {en} } @article{MohrZimmermannKorupetal.2014, author = {Mohr, Christian Heinrich and Zimmermann, Andreas and Korup, Oliver and Iroume, A. and Francke, Till and Bronstert, Axel}, title = {Seasonal logging, process response, and geomorphic work}, series = {Earth surface dynamics}, volume = {2}, journal = {Earth surface dynamics}, number = {1}, publisher = {Copernicus}, address = {G{\"o}ttingen}, issn = {2196-6311}, doi = {10.5194/esurf-2-117-2014}, pages = {117 -- 125}, year = {2014}, abstract = {Deforestation is a prominent anthropogenic cause of erosive overland flow and slope instability, boosting rates of soil erosion and concomitant sediment flux. Conventional methods of gauging or estimating post-logging sediment flux often focus on annual timescales but overlook potentially important process response on shorter intervals immediately following timber harvest. We resolve such dynamics with non-parametric quantile regression forests (QRF) based on high-frequency (3 min) discharge measurements and sediment concentration data sampled every 30-60 min in similar-sized (similar to 0.1 km(2)) forested Chilean catchments that were logged during either the rainy or the dry season. The method of QRF builds on the random forest algorithm, and combines quantile regression with repeated random sub-sampling of both cases and predictors. The algorithm belongs to the family of decision-tree classifiers, which allow quantifying relevant predictors in high-dimensional parameter space. We find that, where no logging occurred, similar to 80\% of the total sediment load was transported during extremely variable runoff events during only 5\% of the monitoring period. In particular, dry-season logging dampened the relative role of these rare, extreme sediment-transport events by increasing load efficiency during more efficient moderate events. We show that QRFs outperform traditional sediment rating curves (SRCs) in terms of accurately simulating short-term dynamics of sediment flux, and conclude that QRF may reliably support forest management recommendations by providing robust simulations of post-logging response of water and sediment fluxes at high temporal resolution.}, language = {en} } @article{WangHerzschuhLiuetal.2014, author = {Wang, Yongbo and Herzschuh, Ulrike and Liu, Xingqi and Korup, Oliver and Diekmann, Bernhard}, title = {A high-resolution sedimentary archive from landslide-dammed Lake Mengda, north-eastern Tibetan Plateau}, series = {Journal of paleolimnolog}, volume = {51}, journal = {Journal of paleolimnolog}, number = {2}, publisher = {Springer}, address = {Dordrecht}, issn = {0921-2728}, doi = {10.1007/s10933-012-9666-6}, pages = {303 -- 312}, year = {2014}, abstract = {Lacustrine sediments have been widely used to investigate past climatic and environmental changes on millennial to seasonal time scales. Sedimentary archives of lakes in mountainous regions may also record non-climatic events such as earthquakes. We argue herein that a set of 64 annual laminae couplets reconciles a stratigraphically inconsistent accelerator mass spectrometry (AMS) C-14 chronology in a similar to 4-m-long sediment core from Lake Mengda, in the north-eastern Tibetan Plateau. The laminations suggest the lake was formed by a large landslide, triggered by the 1927 Gulang earthquake (M = 8.0). The lake sediment sequence can be separated into three units based on lithologic, sedimentary, and isotopic characteristics. Starting from the bottom of the sequence, these are: (1) unweathered, coarse, sandy valley-floor deposits or landslide debris that pre-date the lake, (2) landslide-induced, fine-grained soil or reworked landslide debris with a high organic content, and (3) lacustrine sediments with low organic content and laminations. These annual laminations provide a high-resolution record of anthropogenic and environmental changes during the twentieth century, recording enhanced sediment input associated with two phases of construction activities. The high mean sedimentation rates of up to 4.8 mm year(-1) underscore the potential for reconstructing such distinct sediment pulses in remote, forested, and seemingly undisturbed mountain catchments.}, language = {en} } @article{MeyerSchwanghartKorupetal.2014, author = {Meyer, Nele Kristin and Schwanghart, Wolfgang and Korup, Oliver and Romstad, Bard and Etzelmuller, Bernd}, title = {Estimating the topographic predictability of debris flows}, series = {Geomorphology : an international journal on pure and applied geomorphology}, volume = {207}, journal = {Geomorphology : an international journal on pure and applied geomorphology}, publisher = {Elsevier}, address = {Amsterdam}, issn = {0169-555X}, doi = {10.1016/j.geomorph.2013.10.030}, pages = {114 -- 125}, year = {2014}, abstract = {The Norwegian traffic network is impacted by about 2000 landslides, avalanches, and debris flows each year that incur high economic losses. Despite the urgent need to mitigate future losses, efforts to locate potential debris flow source areas have been rare at the regional scale. We tackle this research gap by exploring a minimal set of possible topographic predictors of debris flow initiation that we input to a Weights-of-Evidence (WofE) model for mapping the regional susceptibility to debris flows in western Norway. We use an inventory of 429 debris flows that were recorded between 1979 and 2008, and use the terrain variables of slope, total curvature, and contributing area (flow accumulation) to compute the posterior probabilities of local debris flow occurrence. The novelty of our approach is that we quantify the uncertainties in the WofE approach arising from different predictor classification schemes and data input, while estimating model accuracy and predictive performance from independent test data. Our results show that a percentile-based classification scheme excels over a manual classification of the predictor variables because differing abundances in manually defined bins reduce the reliability of the conditional independence tests, a key, and often neglected, prerequisite for the WofE method. The conditional dependence between total curvature and flow accumulation precludes their joint use in the model. Slope gradient has the highest true positive rate (88\%), although the fraction of area classified as susceptible is very large (37\%). The predictive performance, i.e. the reduction of false positives, is improved when combined with either total curvature or flow accumulation. Bootstrapping shows that the combination of slope and flow accumulation provides more reliable predictions than the combination of slope and total curvature, and helps refining the use of slope-area plots for identifying morphometric fingerprints of debris flow source areas, an approach used outside the field of landslide susceptibility assessments.}, language = {en} } @article{WeidingerKorupMunacketal.2014, author = {Weidinger, Johannes T. and Korup, Oliver and Munack, Henry and Altenberger, Uwe and Dunning, Stuart A. and Tippelt, Gerold and Lottermoser, Werner}, title = {Giant rockslides from the inside}, series = {Earth \& planetary science letters}, volume = {389}, journal = {Earth \& planetary science letters}, publisher = {Elsevier}, address = {Amsterdam}, issn = {0012-821X}, doi = {10.1016/j.epsl.2013.12.017}, pages = {62 -- 73}, year = {2014}, abstract = {The growing body of research on large-scale mass wasting events so far has only scarcely investigated the sedimentology of chaotic deposits from non-volcanic terrestrial landslides such that any overarching and systematic terminological framework remains elusive. Yet recent work has emphasized the need for better understanding the internal structure and composition of rockslide deposits as a means to characterise the mechanics during the final stages of runout and emplacement. We offer a comprehensive overview on the occurrence of rock fragmentation and frictional melt both at different geographic locations, and different sections within large (>10(6) m(3)) rockslide masses. We argue that exposures of pervasively fragmented and interlocked jigsaw-cracked rock masses; basal melange containing rip-up clasts and phantom blocks; micro-breccia; and thin bands of basal frictionite are indispensable clues for identifying deposits from giant rockslides that may remain morphologically inconspicuous otherwise. These sedimentary assemblages are diagnostic tools for distinguishing large rockslide debris from macro and microscopically similar glacial deposits, tectonic fault-zone breccias, and impact breccias, and thus help avoid palaeoclimatic and tectonic misinterpretations, let alone misestimates of the hazard from giant rockslides. Moreover, experimental results from Mossbauer spectroscopy of frictionite samples support visual interpretations of thin sections, and demonstrate that short-lived (<10 s) friction-induced partial melting at temperatures >1500 degrees C in the absence of water occurred at the base of several giant moving rockslides. This finding supports previous theories of dry excess runout accompanied by comminution of rock masses down to gm-scale, and indicates that catastrophic motion of large fragmenting rock masses does not require water as a potential lubricant.}, language = {en} } @article{BloetheMunackKorupetal.2014, author = {Bloethe, Jan H. and Munack, Henry and Korup, Oliver and Fuelling, Alexander and Garzanti, Eduardo and Resentini, Alberto and Kubik, Peter W.}, title = {Late Quaternary valley infill and dissection in the Indus River, western Tibetan Plateau margin}, series = {Quaternary science reviews : the international multidisciplinary research and review journal}, volume = {94}, journal = {Quaternary science reviews : the international multidisciplinary research and review journal}, publisher = {Elsevier}, address = {Oxford}, issn = {0277-3791}, doi = {10.1016/j.quascirev.2014.04.011}, pages = {102 -- 119}, year = {2014}, abstract = {The Indus, one of Earth's major rivers, drains large parts of the NW Himalaya and the Transhimalayan ranges that form part of the western Tibetan Plateau margin. In the western Himalayan syntaxis, where local topographic relief exceeds 7 km, the Indus has incised a steep bedrock gorge at rates of several mm yr(-1). Upstream, however, the upper Indus and its tributaries alternate between bedrock gorges and broad alluvial flats flanked by the Ladakh and Zanskar ranges. We review the late Quaternary valley history in this region with a focus on the confluence of the Indus and Zanskar Rivers, where vast alluvial terrace staircases and lake sediments record major episodes of aggradation and incision. New absolute dating of high-level fluvial terrace remnants using cosmogenic Be-10, optically and infrared stimulated luminescence (OSL, IRSL) indicates at least two phases of late Quaternary valley infilling. These phases commenced before similar to 200 ka and similar to 50-20 ka, judging from terrace treads stranded >150 m and similar to 30-40 m above modern river levels, respectively. Numerous stacks of lacustrine sediments that straddle the Indus River >200 km between the city of Leh and the confluence with the Shyok River share a distinct horizontal alignment. Constraints from IRSL samples of lacustrine sequences from the Leh-Spituk area reveal a protracted lake phase from >177 ka to 72 ka, locally accumulating >50-m thick deposits. In the absence of tectonic faulting, major lithological differences, and stream capture, we attribute the formation of this and other large lakes in the region to natural damming by large landslides, glaciers, and alluvial fans. The overall patchy landform age constraints from earlier studies can be reconciled by postulating a major deglacial control on sediment flux, valley infilling, and subsequent incision that has been modulated locally by backwater effects of natural damming. While comparison with Pleistocene monsoon proxies reveals no obvious correlation, a lateor post-glacial sediment pulse seems a more likely source of this widespread sedimentation that has partly buried the dissected bedrock topography. Overall, the long residence times of fluvial, alluvial and lacustrine deposits in the region (>500 ka) support previous studies, but remain striking given the dominantly steep slopes and deeply carved valleys that characterise this high-altitude mountain desert. Recalculated late Quaternary rates of fluvial bedrock incision in the Indus and Zanskar of 1.5 +/- 0.2 mm yr(-1) are at odds with the longevity of juxtaposed valley-fill deposits, unless a lack of decisive lateral fluvial erosion helps to preserve these late Pleistocene sedimentary archives. We conclude that alternating, similar to 10(4)-yr long, phases of massive infilling and incision have dominated the late Quaternary history of the Indus valley below the western Tibetan Plateau margin. (C) 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.}, language = {en} } @article{GorumKorupvanWestenetal.2014, author = {Gorum, Tolga and Korup, Oliver and van Westen, Cees J. and van der Meijde, Mark and Xu, Chong and van der Meer, Freek D.}, title = {Why so few? Landslides triggered by the 2002 Denali earthquake, Alaska}, series = {Quaternary science reviews : the international multidisciplinary research and review journal}, volume = {95}, journal = {Quaternary science reviews : the international multidisciplinary research and review journal}, publisher = {Elsevier}, address = {Oxford}, issn = {0277-3791}, doi = {10.1016/j.quascirev.2014.04.032}, pages = {80 -- 94}, year = {2014}, abstract = {The 2002 M-w 7.9 Denali Fault earthquake, Alaska, provides an unparalleled opportunity to investigate in quantitative detail the regional hillslope mass-wasting response to strong seismic shaking in glacierized terrain. We present the first detailed inventory of similar to 1580 coseismic slope failures, out of which some 20\% occurred above large valley glaciers, based on mapping from multi-temporal remote sensing data. We find that the Denali earthquake produced at least one order of magnitude fewer landslides in a much narrower corridor along the fault ruptures than empirical predictions for an M 8 earthquake would suggest, despite the availability of sufficiently steep and dissected mountainous topography prone to frequent slope failure. In order to explore potential controls on the reduced extent of regional coseismic landsliding we compare our data with inventories that we compiled for two recent earthquakes in periglacial and formerly glaciated terrain, i.e. at Yushu, Tibet (M-w 6.9, 2010), and Aysen Fjord, Chile (2007 M-w 6.2). Fault movement during these events was, similarly to that of the Denali earthquake, dominated by strike-slip offsets along near-vertical faults. Our comparison returns very similar coseismic landslide patterns that are consistent with the idea that fault type, geometry, and dynamic rupture process rather than widespread glacier cover were among the first-order controls on regional hillslope erosional response in these earthquakes. We conclude that estimating the amount of coseismic hillslope sediment input to the sediment cascade from earthquake magnitude alone remains highly problematic, particularly if glacierized terrain is involved. (C) 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.}, language = {en} } @article{KorupHayakawaCodileanetal.2014, author = {Korup, Oliver and Hayakawa, Yuichi and Codilean, Alexandru T. and Matsushi, Yuki and Saito, Hitoshi and Oguchi, Takashi and Matsuzaki, Hiroyuki}, title = {Japan's sediment flux to the Pacific Ocean revisited}, series = {Earth science reviews : the international geological journal bridging the gap between research articles and textbooks}, volume = {135}, journal = {Earth science reviews : the international geological journal bridging the gap between research articles and textbooks}, publisher = {Elsevier}, address = {Amsterdam}, issn = {0012-8252}, doi = {10.1016/j.earscirev.2014.03.004}, pages = {1 -- 16}, year = {2014}, abstract = {Quantifying volumes and rates of delivery of terrestrial sediment from island arcs to subduction zones is indispensable for refining estimates of the thickness of trench fills that may eventually control the location and timing of submarine landslides and tsunami-generating mega-earthquakes. Despite these motivating insights, knowledge about the rates of erosion and sediment export from the Japanese islands to their Pacific subduction zones remains patchy regardless of the increasing availability of highly resolved data on surface deformation, climate, geology, and topography. Traditionally, natural erosion rates across the island arc have been estimated from regression of topographic catchment metrics and reservoir sedimentation rates that were recorded over several years to decades. We review current research in this context, correct for a systematic bias in one of the most widely used predictions, and present new estimates of decadal to millennial-scale erosion rates of Japan's terrestrial inner forearc. We draw on several independent and unprecedented inventories of mass wasting, reservoir sedimentation, and concentrations of cosmogenic Be-10 in river sands. We find that natural Be-10-derived denudation rates of several mm yr(-1) in the Japanese Alps have been sustained over several centuries to millennia, and are, within error, roughly consistent with sediment yields inferred from artificial reservoir sedimentation. Local exceptions may likely result from release of sediment storage or regional landsliding episodes that trigger transient sediment pulses. Our synopsis further reveals that catchments draining Japan's eastern seaboard differ distinctly in their tectonic, lithological, topographic, and climatic characteristics between the Tohoku, Japanese Alps, and Nankai inner forearc segments, which is underscored by a marked asymmetric pattern of erosion rates along the island arc. Erosion rates are highest (up to at least 3 mm yr(-1)) in the Japanese Alps that mark the collision of two subduction zones, where high topographic relief, hillslope and bedrock-channel steepness foster rapid denudation by mass wasting. Comparable, if slightly lower, erosion rates characterise the Nankai inner forearc in southwest Japan, most likely due to higher typhoon-driven rainfall totals and variability rather than its high topographic relief. In contrast, our estimated erosion and flux rates are lowest in the Tohoku inner forearc catchments that feed sediment into the Japan Trench. We conclude that collisional mountain building of the Japanese Alps drives some of the highest erosion rates in the island arc despite similar uplift and precipitation controls in southwest Japan. We infer that, prior to extensive river damming, reservoir construction, and coastal works, the gross of Japan's total sediment export to the Pacific Ocean entered the accretionary margin of the Nankai Trough as opposed to the comparatively sediment-starved Japan Trench. Compared to documented contemporary rates of sediment flux from mountainous catchments elsewhere in the Pacific, the rivers draining Japan's inner forearc take an intermediate position despite high relief, steep slopes, very high seismicity, and frequent rainstorms. However, the average rates of millennial-scale denudation in the Japanese Alps particularly are amongst the highest reported worldwide. Local mismatches between these late Holocene and modern rates emphasise the anthropogenic fingerprint on sediment retention that may have significantly reduced the island arc's mass flux to its subduction zones, as is the case elsewhere in east and southeast Asia. (C) 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.}, language = {en} } @article{MunackKorupResentinietal.2014, author = {Munack, Henry and Korup, Oliver and Resentini, Alberto and Limonta, Mara and Garzanti, Eduardo and Bloethe, Jan H. and Scherler, Dirk and Wittmann, Hella and Kubik, Peter W.}, title = {Postglacial denudation of western Tibetan Plateau margin outpaced by long-term exhumation}, series = {Geological Society of America bulletin}, volume = {126}, journal = {Geological Society of America bulletin}, number = {11-12}, publisher = {American Institute of Physics}, address = {Boulder}, issn = {0016-7606}, doi = {10.1130/B30979.1}, pages = {1580 -- 1594}, year = {2014}, abstract = {The Indus River, one of Asia's premier rivers, drains the western Tibetan Plateau and the Nanga Parbat syntaxis. These two areas juxtapose some of the lowest and highest topographic relief and commensurate denudation rates in the Himalaya-Tibet orogen, respectively, yet the spatial pattern of denudation rates upstream of the syntaxis remains largely unclear, as does the way in which major rivers drive headward incision into the Tibetan Plateau. We report a new inventory of Be-10-based basinwide denudation rates from 33 tributaries flanking the Indus River along a 320 km reach across the western Tibetan Plateau margin. We find that denudation rates of up to 110 mm k.y.(-1) in the Ladakh and Zanskar Ranges systematically decrease eastward to 10 mm k.y.(-1) toward the Tibetan Plateau. Independent results from bulk petrographic and heavy mineral analyses support this denudation gradient. Assuming that incision along the Indus exerts the base-level control on tributary denudation rates, our data show a systematic eastward decrease of landscape downwearing, reaching its minimum on the Tibetan Plateau. In contrast, denudation rates increase rapidly 150-200 km downstream of a distinct knick-point that marks the Tibetan Plateau margin in the Indus River longitudinal profile. We infer that any vigorous headward incision and any accompanying erosional waves into the interior of the plateau mostly concerned reaches well below this plateau margin. Moreover, reported long-term (>10(6) yr) exhumation rates from low-temperature chronometry of 0.1-0.75 mm yr(-1) consistently exceed our Be-10-derived denudation rates. With averaging time scales of 10(3)-10(4) yr for our denudation data, we report postglacial rates of downwearing in a tectonically idle landscape. To counterbalance this apparent mismatch, denudation rates must have been higher in the Quaternary during glacial-interglacial intervals.}, language = {en} }