@article{WenzLevermannWillneretal.2020,
  author    = {Wenz, Leonie and Levermann, Anders and Willner, Sven N. and Otto, Christian and Kuhla, Kilian},
  title     = {Post-Brexit no-trade-deal scenario: short-term consumer benefit at the expense of long-term economic development},
  series = {PLoS ONE},
  volume    = {15},
  journal   = {PLoS ONE},
  number    = {9},
  publisher = {PLOS},
  address   = {San Francisco},
  pages     = {14},
  year      = {2020},
  abstract  = {After the United Kingdom has left the European Union it remains unclear whether the two parties can successfully negotiate and sign a trade agreement within the transition period. Ongoing negotiations, practical obstacles and resulting uncertainties make it highly unlikely that economic actors would be fully prepared to a "no-trade-deal" situation. Here we provide an economic shock simulation of the immediate aftermath of such a post-Brexit no-trade-deal scenario by computing the time evolution of more than 1.8 million interactions between more than 6,600 economic actors in the global trade network. We find an abrupt decline in the number of goods produced in the UK and the EU. This sudden output reduction is caused by drops in demand as customers on the respective other side of the Channel incorporate the new trade restriction into their decision-making. As a response, producers reduce prices in order to stimulate demand elsewhere. In the short term consumers benefit from lower prices but production value decreases with potentially severe socio-economic consequences in the longer term.},
  language  = {en}
}
@article{KuhlaWillnerOttoetal.2021,
  author    = {Kuhla, Kilian and Willner, Sven N. and Otto, Christian and Geiger, Tobias and Levermann, Anders},
  title     = {Ripple resonance amplifies economic welfare loss from weather extremes},
  series = {Environmental research letters : ERL / Institute of Physics},
  volume    = {16},
  journal   = {Environmental research letters : ERL / Institute of Physics},
  number    = {11},
  publisher = {IOP Publ. Ltd.},
  address   = {Bristol},
  issn      = {1748-9326},
  doi       = {10.1088/1748-9326/ac2932},
  pages     = {8},
  year      = {2021},
  abstract  = {The most complex but potentially most severe impacts of climate change are caused by extreme weather events. In a globally connected economy, damages can cause remote perturbations and cascading consequences-a ripple effect along supply chains. Here we show an economic ripple resonance that amplifies losses when consecutive or overlapping weather extremes and their repercussions interact. This amounts to an average amplification of 21\% for climate-induced heat stress, river floods, and tropical cyclones. Modeling the temporal evolution of 1.8 million trade relations between >7000 regional economic sectors, we find that the regional responses to future extremes are strongly heterogeneous also in their resonance behavior. The induced effect on welfare varies between gains due to increased demand in some regions and losses due to demand or supply shortages in others. Within the current global supply network, the ripple resonance effect of extreme weather is strongest in high-income economies-an important effect to consider when evaluating past and future economic climate impacts.},
  language  = {en}
}
@article{MiddelanisWillnerOttoetal.2021,
  author    = {Middelanis, Robin and Willner, Sven N. and Otto, Christian and Kuhla, Kilian and Quante, Lennart and Levermann, Anders},
  title     = {Wave-like global economic ripple response to Hurricane Sandy},
  series = {Environmental research letters : ERL / Institute of Physics},
  volume    = {16},
  journal   = {Environmental research letters : ERL / Institute of Physics},
  number    = {12},
  publisher = {IOP Publ. Ltd.},
  address   = {Bristol},
  issn      = {1748-9326},
  doi       = {10.1088/1748-9326/ac39c0},
  pages     = {11},
  year      = {2021},
  abstract  = {Tropical cyclones range among the costliest disasters on Earth. Their economic repercussions along the supply and trade network also affect remote economies that are not directly affected. We here simulate possible global repercussions on consumption for the example case of Hurricane Sandy in the US (2012) using the shock-propagation model Acclimate. The modeled shock yields a global three-phase ripple: an initial production demand reduction and associated consumption price decrease, followed by a supply shortage with increasing prices, and finally a recovery phase. Regions with strong trade relations to the US experience strong magnitudes of the ripple. A dominating demand reduction or supply shortage leads to overall consumption gains or losses of a region, respectively. While finding these repercussions in historic data is challenging due to strong volatility of economic interactions, numerical models like ours can help to identify them by approaching the problem from an exploratory angle, isolating the effect of interest. For this, our model simulates the economic interactions of over 7000 regional economic sectors, interlinked through about 1.8 million trade relations. Under global warming, the wave-like structures of the economic response to major hurricanes like the one simulated here are likely to intensify and potentially overlap with other weather extremes.},
  language  = {en}
}