@article{WangShpritsZhelayskayaetal.2019, author = {Wang, Dedong and Shprits, Yuri Y. and Zhelayskaya, Irina S. and Agapitov, Oleksiy and Drozdov, Alexander and Aseev, Nikita}, title = {Analytical chorus wave model derived from van Allen Probe Observations}, series = {Journal of geophysical research : Space physics}, volume = {124}, journal = {Journal of geophysical research : Space physics}, number = {2}, publisher = {American Geophysical Union}, address = {Washington}, issn = {2169-9380}, doi = {10.1029/2018JA026183}, pages = {1063 -- 1084}, year = {2019}, abstract = {Chorus waves play an important role in the dynamic evolution of energetic electrons in the Earth's radiation belts and ring current. Using more than 5 years of Van Allen Probe data, we developed a new analytical model for upper-band chorus (UBC; 0.5fce < f < fce) and lower-band chorus (LBC; 0.05fce < f < 0.5fce) waves, where fce is the equatorial electron gyrofrequency. By applying polynomial fits to chorus wave root mean square amplitudes, we developed regression models for LBC and UBC as a function of geomagnetic activity (Kp), L, magnetic latitude (λ), and magnetic local time (MLT). Dependence on Kp is separated from the dependence on λ, L, and MLT as Kp-scaling law to simplify the calculation of diffusion coefficients and inclusion into particle tracing codes. Frequency models for UBC and LBC are also developed, which depends on MLT and magnetic latitude. This empirical model is valid in all MLTs, magnetic latitude up to 20°, Kp ≤ 6, L-shell range from 3.5 to 6 for LBC and from 4 to 6 for UBC. The dependence of root mean square amplitudes on L are different for different bands, which implies different energy sources for different wave bands. This analytical chorus wave model is convenient for inclusion in quasi-linear diffusion calculations of electron scattering rates and particle simulations in the inner magnetosphere, especially for the newly developed four-dimensional codes, which require significantly improved wave parameterizations.}, language = {en} } @article{SmirnovKronbergLatallerieetal.2019, author = {Smirnov, Artem G. and Kronberg, Elena A. and Latallerie, F. and Daly, Patrick W. and Aseev, Nikita and Shprits, Yuri Y. and Kellerman, Adam C. and Kasahara, Satoshi and Turner, Drew L. and Taylor, M. G. G. T.}, title = {Electron Intensity Measurements by the Cluster/RAPID/IES Instrument in Earth's Radiation Belts and Ring Current}, series = {Space Weather: The International Journal of Research and Applications}, volume = {17}, journal = {Space Weather: The International Journal of Research and Applications}, number = {4}, publisher = {American Geophysical Union}, address = {Washington}, issn = {1542-7390}, doi = {10.1029/2018SW001989}, pages = {553 -- 566}, year = {2019}, abstract = {Plain Language Summary Radiation belts of the Earth, which are the zones of charged energetic particles trapped by the geomagnetic field, comprise enormous and dynamic systems. While the inner radiation belt, composed mainly of high-energy protons, is relatively stable, the outer belt, filled with energetic electrons, is highly variable and depends substantially on solar activity. Hence, extended reliable observations and the improved models of the electron intensities in the outer belt depending on solar wind parameters are necessary for prediction of their dynamics. The Cluster mission has been measuring electron flux intensities in the radiation belts since its launch in 2000, thus providing a huge dataset that can be used for radiation belts analysis. Using 16 years of electron measurements by the Cluster mission corrected for background contamination, we derived a uniform linear-logarithmic dependence of electron fluxes in the outer belt on the solar wind dynamic pressure.}, language = {en} } @article{CervantesShpritsAseevetal.2019, author = {Cervantes, Sebastian and Shprits, Yuri Y. and Aseev, Nikita and Drozdov, Alexander and Castillo Tibocha, Angelica Maria and Stolle, Claudia}, title = {Identifying radiation belt electron source and loss processes by assimilating spacecraft data in a three-dimensional diffusion model}, series = {Journal of geophysical research : Space physics}, volume = {125}, journal = {Journal of geophysical research : Space physics}, number = {1}, publisher = {American Geophysical Union}, address = {Washington}, issn = {2169-9380}, doi = {10.1029/2019JA027514}, pages = {16}, year = {2019}, abstract = {Data assimilation aims to blend incomplete and inaccurate data with physics-based dynamical models. In the Earth's radiation belts, it is used to reconstruct electron phase space density, and it has become an increasingly important tool in validating our current understanding of radiation belt dynamics, identifying new physical processes, and predicting the near-Earth hazardous radiation environment. In this study, we perform reanalysis of the sparse measurements from four spacecraft using the three-dimensional Versatile Electron Radiation Belt diffusion model and a split-operator Kalman filter over a 6-month period from 1 October 2012 to 1 April 2013. In comparison to previous works, our 3-D model accounts for more physical processes, namely, mixed pitch angle-energy diffusion, scattering by Electromagnetic Ion Cyclotron waves, and magnetopause shadowing. We describe how data assimilation, by means of the innovation vector, can be used to account for missing physics in the model. We use this method to identify the radial distances from the Earth and the geomagnetic conditions where our model is inconsistent with the measured phase space density for different values of the invariants mu and K. As a result, the Kalman filter adjusts the predictions in order to match the observations, and we interpret this as evidence of where and when additional source or loss processes are active. The current work demonstrates that 3-D data assimilation provides a comprehensive picture of the radiation belt electrons and is a crucial step toward performing reanalysis using measurements from ongoing and future missions.}, language = {en} } @article{QinHudsonLietal.2019, author = {Qin, Murong and Hudson, Mary and Li, Zhao and Millan, Robyn and Shen, Xiaochen and Shprits, Yuri Y. and Woodger, Leslie and Jaynes, Allison and Kletzing, Craig}, title = {Investigating loss of relativistic electrons associated with EMIC Waves at low L values on 22 June 2015}, series = {Journal of geophysical research : Space physics}, volume = {124}, journal = {Journal of geophysical research : Space physics}, number = {6}, publisher = {American Geophysical Union}, address = {Washington}, issn = {2169-9380}, doi = {10.1029/2018JA025726}, pages = {4022 -- 4036}, year = {2019}, abstract = {In this study, rapid loss of relativistic radiation belt electrons at low L* values (2.4-3.2) during a strong geomagnetic storm on 22 June 2015 is investigated along with five possible loss mechanisms. Both the particle and wave data are obtained from the Van Allen Probes. Duskside H+ band electromagnetic ion cyclotron (EMIC) waves were observed during a rapid decrease of relativistic electrons with energy above 5.2 MeV occurring outside the plasma sphere during extreme magnetopause compression. Lower He+ composition and enriched O+ composition are found compared to typical values assumed in other studies of cyclotron resonant scattering of relativistic electrons by EMIC waves. Quantitative analysis demonstrates that even with the existence of He+ band EMIC waves, it is the H+ band EMIC waves that are likely to cause the depletion at small pitch angles and strong gradients in pitch angle distributions of relativistic electrons with energy above 5.2 MeV at low L values for this event. Very low frequency wave activity at other magnetic local time can be favorable for the loss of relativistic electrons at higher pitch angles. An illustrative calculation that combines the nominal pitch angle scattering rate due to whistler mode chorus at high pitch angles with the H+ band EMIC wave loss rate at low pitch angles produces loss on time scale observed at L = 2.4-3.2. At high L values and lower energies, radial loss to the magnetopause is a viable explanation.}, language = {en} } @article{ZhuChenLiuetal.2019, author = {Zhu, Hui and Chen, Lunjin and Liu, Xu and Shprits, Yuri Y.}, title = {Modulation of locally generated equatorial noise by ULF wave}, series = {Journal of geophysical research : Space physics}, volume = {124}, journal = {Journal of geophysical research : Space physics}, number = {4}, publisher = {American Geophysical Union}, address = {Washington}, issn = {2169-9380}, doi = {10.1029/2018JA026199}, pages = {2779 -- 2787}, year = {2019}, abstract = {In this paper we report a rare and fortunate event of fast magnetosonic (MS, also called equatorial noise) waves modulated by compressional ultralow frequency (ULF) waves measured by Van Allen Probes. The characteristics of MS waves, ULF waves, proton distribution, and their potential correlations are analyzed. The results show that ULF waves can modulate the energetic ring proton distribution and in turn modulate the MS generation. Furthermore, the variation of MS intensities is attributed to not only ULF wave activities but also the variation of background parameters, for example, number density. The results confirm the opinion that MS waves are generated by proton ring distribution and propose a new modulation phenomenon.}, language = {en} } @article{ZhuShpritsSpasojevicetal.2019, author = {Zhu, Hui and Shprits, Yuri Y. and Spasojevic, M. and Drozdov, Alexander}, title = {New hiss and chorus waves diffusion coefficient parameterizations from the Van Allen Probes and their effect on long-term relativistic electron radiation-belt VERB simulations}, series = {Journal of Atmospheric and Solar-Terrestrial Physics}, volume = {193}, journal = {Journal of Atmospheric and Solar-Terrestrial Physics}, publisher = {Elsevier}, address = {Oxford}, issn = {1364-6826}, doi = {10.1016/j.jastp.2019.105090}, pages = {13}, year = {2019}, abstract = {New wave frequency and amplitude models for the nightside and dayside chorus waves are built based on measurements from the Electric and Magnetic Field Instrument Suite and Integrated Science (EMFISIS) instrument onboard the Van Allen Probes. The corresponding 3D diffusion coefficients are systematically obtained. Compared with previous commonly-used (typical) parameterizations, the new parameterizations result in differences in diffusion rates that depend on the energy and pitch angle. Furthermore, one-year 3D diffusive simulations are performed using the Versatile Electron Radiation Belt (VERB) code. Both typical and new wave parameterizations simulation results are in a good agreement with observations at 0.9 MeV. However, the new parameterizations for nightside chorus better reproduce the observed electron fluxes. These parameterizations will be incorporated into future modeling efforts.}, language = {en} } @article{ShpritsVasileZhelayskaya2019, author = {Shprits, Yuri Y. and Vasile, Ruggero and Zhelayskaya, Irina S.}, title = {Nowcasting and Predicting the Kp Index Using Historical Values and Real-Time Observations}, series = {Space Weather: The International Journal of Research and Applications}, volume = {17}, journal = {Space Weather: The International Journal of Research and Applications}, number = {8}, publisher = {American Geophysical Union}, address = {Washington}, issn = {1542-7390}, doi = {10.1029/2018SW002141}, pages = {1219 -- 1229}, year = {2019}, abstract = {Current algorithms for the real-time prediction of the Kp index use a combination of models empirically driven by solar wind measurements at the L1 Lagrange point and historical values of the index. In this study, we explore the limitations of this approach, examining the forecast for short and long lead times using measurements at L1 and Kp time series as input to artificial neural networks. We explore the relative efficiency of the solar wind-based predictions, predictions based on recurrence, and predictions based on persistence. Our modeling results show that for short-term forecasts of approximately half a day, the addition of the historical values of Kp to the measured solar wind values provides a barely noticeable improvement. For a longer-term forecast of more than 2 days, predictions can be made using recurrence only, while solar wind measurements provide very little improvement for a forecast with long horizon times. We also examine predictions for disturbed and quiet geomagnetic activity conditions. Our results show that the paucity of historical measurements of the solar wind for high Kp results in a lower accuracy of predictions during disturbed conditions. Rebalancing of input data can help tailor the predictions for more disturbed conditions.}, language = {en} } @article{RipollLoridanDentonetal.2019, author = {Ripoll, Jean-Francois and Loridan, Vivien and Denton, Michael H. and Cunningham, Gregory and Reeves, G. and Santolik, O. and Fennell, Joseph and Turner, Drew L. and Drozdov, Alexander and Villa, Juan Sebastian Cervantes and Shprits, Yuri Y. and Thaller, Scott A. and Kurth, William S. and Kletzing, Craig A. and Henderson, Michael G. and Ukhorskiy, Aleksandr Y.}, title = {Observations and Fokker-Planck Simulations of the L-Shell, Energy, and Times}, series = {Journal of geophysical research : Space physics}, volume = {124}, journal = {Journal of geophysical research : Space physics}, number = {2}, publisher = {American Geophysical Union}, address = {Washington}, issn = {2169-9380}, doi = {10.1029/2018JA026111}, pages = {1125 -- 1142}, year = {2019}, abstract = {The evolution of the radiation belts in L-shell (L), energy (E), and equatorial pitch angle (alpha(0)) is analyzed during the calm 11-day interval (4-15 March) following the 1 March 2013 storm. Magnetic Electron and Ion Spectrometer (MagEIS) observations from Van Allen Probes are interpreted alongside 1D and 3D Fokker-Planck simulations combined with consistent event-driven scattering modeling from whistler mode hiss waves. Three (L, E, alpha(0)) regions persist through 11 days of hiss wave scattering; the pitch angle-dependent inner belt core (L similar to <2.2 and E < 700 keV), pitch angle homogeneous outer belt low-energy core (L > similar to 5 and E similar to < 100 keV), and a distinct pocket of electrons (L similar to [4.5, 5.5] and E similar to [0.7, 2] MeV). The pitch angle homogeneous outer belt is explained by the diffusion coefficients that are roughly constant for alpha(0) similar to <60 degrees, E > 100 keV, 3.5 < L < L-pp similar to 6. Thus, observed unidirectional flux decays can be used to estimate local pitch angle diffusion rates in that region. Top-hat distributions are computed and observed at L similar to 3-3.5 and E = 100-300 keV.}, language = {en} } @article{WangShprits2019, author = {Wang, Dedong and Shprits, Yuri Y.}, title = {On How High-Latitude Chorus Waves Tip the Balance Between Acceleration and Loss of Relativistic Electrons}, series = {Geophysical research letters}, volume = {46}, journal = {Geophysical research letters}, number = {14}, publisher = {American Geophysical Union}, address = {Washington}, issn = {0094-8276}, doi = {10.1029/2019GL082681}, pages = {7945 -- 7954}, year = {2019}, abstract = {Modeling and observations have shown that energy diffusion by chorus waves is an important source of acceleration of electrons to relativistic energies. By performing long-term simulations using the three-dimensional Versatile Electron Radiation Belt code, in this study, we test how the latitudinal dependence of chorus waves can affect the dynamics of the radiation belt electrons. Results show that the variability of chorus waves at high latitudes is critical for modeling of megaelectron volt (MeV) electrons. We show that, depending on the latitudinal distribution of chorus waves under different geomagnetic conditions, they cannot only produce a net acceleration but also a net loss of MeV electrons. Decrease in high-latitude chorus waves can tip the balance between acceleration and loss toward acceleration, or alternatively, the increase in high-latitude waves can result in a net loss of MeV electrons. Variations in high-latitude chorus may account for some of the variability of MeV electrons.}, language = {en} } @article{DentonOfmanShpritsetal.2019, author = {Denton, Richard E. and Ofman, L. and Shprits, Yuri Y. and Bortnik, J. and Millan, R. M. and Rodger, C. J. and da Silva, C. L. and Rogers, B. N. and Hudson, M. K. and Liu, K. and Min, K. and Glocer, A. and Komar, C.}, title = {Pitch Angle Scattering of Sub-MeV Relativistic Electrons by Electromagnetic Ion Cyclotron Waves}, series = {Journal of geophysical research : Space physics}, volume = {124}, journal = {Journal of geophysical research : Space physics}, number = {7}, publisher = {American Geophysical Union}, address = {Washington}, issn = {2169-9402}, doi = {10.1029/2018JA026384}, pages = {5610 -- 5626}, year = {2019}, abstract = {Electromagnetic ion cyclotron (EMIC) waves have long been considered to be a significant loss mechanism for relativistic electrons. This has most often been attributed to resonant interactions with the highest amplitude waves. But recent observations have suggested that the dominant energy of electrons precipitated to the atmosphere may often be relatively low, less than 1 MeV, whereas the minimum resonant energy of the highest amplitude waves is often greater than 2 MeV. Here we use relativistic electron test particle simulations in the wavefields of a hybrid code simulation of EMIC waves in dipole geometry in order to show that significant pitch angle scattering can occur due to interaction with low-amplitude short-wavelength EMIC waves. In the case we examined, these waves are in the H band (at frequencies above the He+ gyrofrequency), even though the highest amplitude waves were in the He band frequency range (below the He+ gyrofrequency). We also present wave power distributions for 29 EMIC simulations in straight magnetic field line geometry that show that the high wave number portion of the spectrum is in every case mostly due to the H band waves. Though He band waves are often associated with relativistic electron precipitation, it is possible that the He band waves do not directly scatter the sub-megaelectron volts (sub-MeV) electrons, but that the presence of He band waves is associated with high plasma density which lowers the minimum resonant energy so that these electrons can more easily resonate with the H band waves.}, language = {en} } @article{WoodfieldGlauertMeniettietal.2019, author = {Woodfield, Emma E. and Glauert, Saraha A. and Menietti, J. Douglas and Averkamp, Terrance F. and Horne, Richard B. and Shprits, Yuri Y.}, title = {Rapid Electron Acceleration in Low-Density Regions of Saturn's Radiation Belt by Whistler Mode Chorus Waves}, series = {Geophysical research letters}, volume = {46}, journal = {Geophysical research letters}, number = {13}, publisher = {American Geophysical Union}, address = {Washington}, issn = {0094-8276}, doi = {10.1029/2019GL083071}, pages = {7191 -- 7198}, year = {2019}, abstract = {Electron acceleration at Saturn due to whistler mode chorus waves has previously been assumed to be ineffective; new data closer to the planet show it can be very rapid (factor of 104 flux increase at 1 MeV in 10 days compared to factor of 2). A full survey of chorus waves at Saturn is combined with an improved plasma density model to show that where the plasma frequency falls below the gyrofrequency additional strong resonances are observed favoring electron acceleration. This results in strong chorus acceleration between approximately 2.5 R-S and 5.5 R-S outside which adiabatic transport may dominate. Strong pitch angle dependence results in butterfly pitch angle distributions that flatten over a few days at 100s keV, tens of days at MeV energies which may explain observations of butterfly distributions of MeV electrons near L = 3. Including cross terms in the simulations increases the tendency toward butterfly distributions. Plain Language Summary Radiation belts are hazardous regions found around several of the planets in our Solar System. They consist of very hot, electrically charged particles trapped in the magnetic field of the planet. At Saturn the most important way to heat these particles has for many years been thought to involve the particles drifting closer toward the planet. This paper adds to the emerging idea at Saturn that a different way to heat the particles is also possible where the heating is done by waves, in a similar way to what we find at the Earth. We use recent information from the Cassini spacecraft on the number and location of particles and also of the waves strength and location combined with computer simulations to show that a particular wave called chorus is excellent at heating the particles where the surrounding number of cold particles is low.}, language = {en} } @article{DobyndeEffenbergerKartashovetal.2019, author = {Dobynde, M. I. and Effenberger, Frederic and Kartashov, D. A. and Shprits, Yuri Y. and Shurshakov, V. A.}, title = {Ray-tracing simulation of the radiation dose distribution on the surface of the spherical phantom of the MATROSHKA-R experiment onboard the ISS}, series = {Life sciences in space research}, volume = {21}, journal = {Life sciences in space research}, publisher = {Elsevier}, address = {Amsterdam}, issn = {2214-5524}, doi = {10.1016/j.lssr.2019.04.001}, pages = {65 -- 72}, year = {2019}, abstract = {Space radiation is one of the main concerns for human space flights. The prediction of the radiation dose for the actual spacecraft geometry is very important for the planning of long-duration missions. We present a numerical method for the fast calculation of the radiation dose rate during a space flight. We demonstrate its application for dose calculations during the first and the second sessions of the MATROSHKA-R space experiment with a spherical tissue-equivalent phantom. The main advantage of the method is the short simulation time, so it can be applied for urgent radiation dose calculations for low-Earth orbit space missions. The method uses depth-dose curve and shield-and-composition distribution functions to calculate a radiation dose at the point of interest. The spacecraft geometry is processed into a shield-and-composition distribution function using a ray-tracing method. Depth-dose curves are calculated using the GEANT4 Monte-Carlo code (version 10.00.P02) for a double-layer aluminum-water shielding. Aluminum-water shielding is a good approximation of the real geometry, as water is a good equivalent for biological tissues, and aluminum is the major material of spacecraft bodies.}, language = {en} } @article{AseevShprits2019, author = {Aseev, Nikita and Shprits, Yuri Y.}, title = {Reanalysis of ring current electron phase space densities using van allen probe observations, convection model, and log-normal kalman filter}, series = {Space weather : the international journal of research and applications}, volume = {17}, journal = {Space weather : the international journal of research and applications}, number = {4}, publisher = {American Geophysical Union}, address = {Washington}, issn = {1542-7390}, doi = {10.1029/2018SW002110}, pages = {619 -- 638}, year = {2019}, abstract = {Models of ring current electron dynamics unavoidably contain uncertainties in boundary conditions, electric and magnetic fields, electron scattering rates, and plasmapause location. Model errors can accumulate with time and result in significant deviations of model predictions from observations. Data assimilation offers useful tools which can combine physics-based models and measurements to improve model predictions. In this study, we systematically analyze performance of the Kalman filter applied to a log-transformed convection model of ring current electrons and Van Allen Probe data. We consider long-term dynamics of mu = 2.3 MeV/G and K = 0.3 G(1/2) R-E electrons from 1 February 2013 to 16 June 2013. By using synthetic data, we show that the Kalman filter is capable of correcting errors in model predictions associated with uncertainties in electron lifetimes, boundary conditions, and convection electric fields. We demonstrate that reanalysis retains features which cannot be fully reproduced by the convection model such as storm-time earthward propagation of the electrons down to 2.5 R-E. The Kalman filter can adjust model predictions to satellite measurements even in regions where data are not available. We show that the Kalman filter can adjust model predictions in accordance with observations for mu = 0.1, 2.3, and 9.9 MeV/G and constant K = 0.3 G(1/2) R-E electrons. The results of this study demonstrate that data assimilation can improve performance of ring current models, better quantify model uncertainties, and help deeper understand the physics of the ring current particles.}, language = {en} } @article{CaoNiSummersetal.2019, author = {Cao, Xing and Ni, Binbin and Summers, Danny and Shprits, Yuri Y. and Gu, Xudong and Fu, Song and Lou, Yuequn and Zhang, Yang and Ma, Xin and Zhang, Wenxun and Huang, He and Yi, Juan}, title = {Sensitivity of EMIC wave-driven scattering loss of ring current protons to wave normal angle distribution}, series = {Geophysical research letters}, volume = {46}, journal = {Geophysical research letters}, number = {2}, publisher = {American Geophysical Union}, address = {Washington}, issn = {0094-8276}, doi = {10.1029/2018GL081550}, pages = {590 -- 598}, year = {2019}, abstract = {Electromagnetic ion cyclotron waves have long been recognized to play a crucial role in the dynamic loss of ring current protons. While the field-aligned propagation approximation of electromagnetic ion cyclotron waves was widely used to quantify the scattering loss of ring current protons, in this study, we find that the wave normal distribution strongly affects the pitch angle scattering efficiency of protons. Increase of peak normal angle or angular width can considerably reduce the scattering rates of <= 10 keV protons. For >10 keV protons, the field-aligned propagation approximation results in a pronounced underestimate of the scattering of intermediate equatorial pitch angle protons and overestimates the scattering of high equatorial pitch angle protons by orders of magnitude. Our results suggest that the wave normal distribution of electromagnetic ion cyclotron waves plays an important role in the pitch angle evolution and scattering loss of ring current protons and should be incorporated in future global modeling of ring current dynamics.}, language = {en} } @article{CastilloShpritsGanushkinaetal.2019, author = {Castillo, Angelica M. and Shprits, Yuri Y. and Ganushkina, Natalia and Drozdov, Alexander and Aseev, Nikita and Wang, Dedong and Dubyagin, Stepan}, title = {Simulations of the inner magnetospheric energetic electrons using the IMPTAM-VERB coupled model}, series = {Journal of Atmospheric and Solar-Terrestrial Physics}, volume = {191}, journal = {Journal of Atmospheric and Solar-Terrestrial Physics}, publisher = {Elsevier}, address = {Oxford}, issn = {1364-6826}, doi = {10.1016/j.jastp.2019.05.014}, pages = {17}, year = {2019}, abstract = {In this study, we present initial results of the coupling between the Inner Magnetospheric Particle Transport and Acceleration Model (IMPTAM) and the Versatile Electron Radiation Belt (VERB-3D) code. IMPTAM traces electrons of 10-100 keV energies from the plasma sheet (L = 9 Re) to inner L-shell regions. The flux evolution modeled by IMPTAM is used at the low energy and outer L* computational boundaries of the VERB code (assuming a dipole approximation) to perform radiation belt simulations of energetic electrons. The model was tested on the March 17th, 2013 storm, for a six-day period. Four different simulations were performed and their results compared to satellites observations from Van Allen probes and GOES. The coupled IMPTAM-VERB model reproduces evolution and storm-time features of electron fluxes throughout the studied storm in agreement with the satellite data (within similar to 0.5 orders of magnitude). Including dynamics of the low energy population at L* = 6.6 increases fluxes closer to the heart of the belt and has a strong impact in the VERB simulations at all energies. However, inclusion of magnetopause losses leads to drastic flux decreases even below L* = 3. The dynamics of low energy electrons (max. 10s of keV) do not affect electron fluxes at energies >= 900 keV. Since the IMPTAM-VERB coupled model is only driven by solar wind parameters and the Dst and Kp indexes, it is suitable as a forecasting tool. In this study, we demonstrate that the estimation of electron dynamics with satellite-data-independent models is possible and very accurate.}, language = {en} } @article{KimShprits2019, author = {Kim, Kyung-Chan and Shprits, Yuri Y.}, title = {Statistical Analysis of Hiss Waves in Plasmaspheric Plumes Using Van Allen Probe Observations}, series = {Journal of geophysical research : Space physics}, volume = {124}, journal = {Journal of geophysical research : Space physics}, number = {3}, publisher = {American Geophysical Union}, address = {Washington}, issn = {2169-9380}, doi = {10.1029/2018JA026458}, pages = {1904 -- 1915}, year = {2019}, abstract = {Plasmaspheric hiss waves commonly observed in high-density regions in the Earth's magnetosphere are known to be one of the main contributors to the loss of radiation belt electrons. There has been a lot of effort to investigate the distributions of hiss waves in the plasmasphere, while relatively little attention has been given to those in the plasmaspheric plume. In this study, we present for the first time a statistical analysis of the occurrence and the spatial distribution of wave amplitudes and wave normal angles for hiss waves in plumes using Van Allen Probes observations during the period of October 2012 to December 2016. Statistical results show that a wide range of hiss wave amplitudes in plumes from a few picotesla to >100 pT is observed, but a modest (<20 pT) wave amplitude is more commonly observed regardless of geomagnetic activity in both the midnight-to-dawn and dusk sector. By contrast, stronger amplitude hiss occurs preferentially during geomagnetically active times in the dusk sector. The wave normal angles are distributed over a broad range from 0° to 90° with a bimodal distribution: a quasi-field-aligned population (<20°) with an occurrence rate of <60\% and an oblique one (>50°) with a relative low occurrence rate of ≲20\%. Therefore, from a statistical point of view, we confirm that the hiss intensity (a few tens of picotesla) and field-aligned hiss wave adopted in previous simulation studies are a reasonable assumption but stress that the activity dependence of the wave amplitude should be considered.}, language = {en} } @article{DrozdovAseevEffenbergeretal.2019, author = {Drozdov, Alexander and Aseev, Nikita and Effenberger, Frederic and Turner, Drew L. and Saikin, Anthony and Shprits, Yuri Y.}, title = {Storm Time Depletions of Multi-MeV Radiation Belt Electrons Observed at Different Pitch Angles}, series = {Journal of geophysical research : Space physics}, volume = {124}, journal = {Journal of geophysical research : Space physics}, number = {11}, publisher = {American Geophysical Union}, address = {Washington}, issn = {2169-9380}, doi = {10.1029/2019JA027332}, pages = {8943 -- 8953}, year = {2019}, abstract = {During geomagnetic storms, the rapid depletion of the high-energy (several MeV) outer radiation belt electrons is the result of loss to the interplanetary medium through the magnetopause, outward radial diffusion, and loss to the atmosphere due to wave-particle interactions. We have performed a statistical study of 110 storms using pitch angle resolved electron flux measurements from the Van Allen Probes mission and found that inside of the radiation belt (L* = 3 - 5) the number of storms that result in depletion of electrons with equatorial pitch angle alpha(eq) = 30 degrees is higher than number of storms that result in depletion of electrons with equatorial pitch angle alpha(eq) = 75 degrees. We conclude that this result is consistent with electron scattering by whistler and electromagnetic ion cyclotron waves. At the outer edge of the radiation belt (L* >= 5.2) the number of storms that result in depletion is also large (similar to 40-50\%), emphasizing the significance of the magnetopause shadowing effect and outward radial transport.}, language = {en} } @article{ZhelayskayaVasileShpritsetal.2019, author = {Zhelayskaya, Irina S. and Vasile, Ruggero and Shprits, Yuri Y. and Stolle, Claudia and Matzka, J{\"u}rgen}, title = {Systematic Analysis of Machine Learning and Feature Selection Techniques for Prediction of the Kp Index}, series = {Space Weather: The International Journal of Research and Applications}, volume = {17}, journal = {Space Weather: The International Journal of Research and Applications}, number = {10}, publisher = {American Geophysical Union}, address = {Washington}, issn = {1542-7390}, doi = {10.1029/2019SW002271}, pages = {1461 -- 1486}, year = {2019}, abstract = {The Kp index is a measure of the midlatitude global geomagnetic activity and represents short-term magnetic variations driven by solar wind plasma and interplanetary magnetic field. The Kp index is one of the most widely used indicators for space weather alerts and serves as input to various models, such as for the thermosphere and the radiation belts. It is therefore crucial to predict the Kp index accurately. Previous work in this area has mostly employed artificial neural networks to nowcast Kp, based their inferences on the recent history of Kp and on solar wind measurements at L1. In this study, we systematically test how different machine learning techniques perform on the task of nowcasting and forecasting Kp for prediction horizons of up to 12 hr. Additionally, we investigate different methods of machine learning and information theory for selecting the optimal inputs to a predictive model. We illustrate how these methods can be applied to select the most important inputs to a predictive model of Kp and to significantly reduce input dimensionality. We compare our best performing models based on a reduced set of optimal inputs with the existing models of Kp, using different test intervals, and show how this selection can affect model performance.}, language = {en} } @article{AseevShpritsWangetal.2019, author = {Aseev, Nikita and Shprits, Yuri Y. and Wang, Dedong and Wygant, John and Drozdov, Alexander and Kellerman, Adam C. and Reeves, Geoffrey D.}, title = {Transport and loss of ring current electrons inside geosynchronous orbit during the 17 March 2013 storm}, series = {Journal of geophysical research : Space physics}, volume = {124}, journal = {Journal of geophysical research : Space physics}, number = {2}, publisher = {American Geophysical Union}, address = {Washington}, issn = {2169-9380}, doi = {10.1029/2018JA026031}, pages = {915 -- 933}, year = {2019}, abstract = {Ring current electrons (1-100 keV) have received significant attention in recent decades, but many questions regarding their major transport and loss mechanisms remain open. In this study, we use the four-dimensional Versatile Electron Radiation Belt code to model the enhancement of phase space density that occurred during the 17 March 2013 storm. Our model includes global convection, radial diffusion, and scattering into the Earth's atmosphere driven by whistler-mode hiss and chorus waves. We study the sensitivity of the model to the boundary conditions, global electric field, the electric field associated with subauroral polarization streams, electron loss rates, and radial diffusion coefficients. The results of the code are almost insensitive to the model parameters above 4.5 RERE, which indicates that the general dynamics of the electrons between 4.5 RE and the geostationary orbit can be explained by global convection. We found that the major discrepancies between the model and data can stem from the inaccurate electric field model and uncertainties in lifetimes. We show that additional mechanisms that are responsible for radial transport are required to explain the dynamics of ≥40-keV electrons, and the inclusion of the radial diffusion rates that are typically assumed in radiation belt studies leads to a better agreement with the data. The overall effect of subauroral polarization streams on the electron phase space density profiles seems to be smaller than the uncertainties in other input parameters. This study is an initial step toward understanding the dynamics of these particles inside the geostationary orbit.}, language = {en} }