@misc{GoswamiBoersRheinwaltetal.2018,
  author    = {Goswami, Bedartha and Boers, Niklas and Rheinwalt, Aljoscha and Marwan, Norbert and Heitzig, Jobst and Breitenbach, Sebastian Franz Martin and Kurths, J{\"u}rgen},
  title     = {Abrupt transitions in time series with uncertainties},
  series = {Postprints der Universit{\"a}t Potsdam Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe},
  journal   = {Postprints der Universit{\"a}t Potsdam Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe},
  number    = {576},
  issn      = {1866-8372},
  doi       = {10.25932/publishup-42311},
  url       = {http://nbn-resolving.de/urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-423111},
  pages     = {10},
  year      = {2018},
  abstract  = {Identifying abrupt transitions is a key question in various disciplines. Existing transition detection methods, however, do not rigorously account for time series uncertainties, often neglecting them altogether or assuming them to be independent and qualitatively similar. Here, we introduce a novel approach suited to handle uncertainties by representing the time series as a time-ordered sequence of probability density functions. We show how to detect abrupt transitions in such a sequence using the community structure of networks representing probabilities of recurrence. Using our approach, we detect transitions in global stock indices related to well-known periods of politico-economic volatility. We further uncover transitions in the El Nino-Southern Oscillation which coincide with periods of phase locking with the Pacific Decadal Oscillation. Finally, we provide for the first time an 'uncertainty-aware' framework which validates the hypothesis that ice-rafting events in the North Atlantic during the Holocene were synchronous with a weakened Asian summer monsoon.},
  language  = {en}
}
@article{MenzelGayeMishraetal.2014,
  author    = {Menzel, Philip and Gaye, Birgit and Mishra, Praveen Kumar and Anoop, Ambili and Basavaiah, Nathani and Marwan, Norbert and Plessen, Birgit and Prasad, Sushma and Riedel, Nils and Stebich, Martina and Wiesner, Martin G.},
  title     = {Linking Holocene drying trends from Lonar Lake in monsoonal central India to North Atlantic cooling events},
  series = {Palaeogeography, palaeoclimatology, palaeoecology : an international journal for the geo-sciences},
  volume    = {410},
  journal   = {Palaeogeography, palaeoclimatology, palaeoecology : an international journal for the geo-sciences},
  publisher = {Elsevier},
  address   = {Amsterdam},
  issn      = {0031-0182},
  doi       = {10.1016/j.palaeo.2014.05.044},
  pages     = {164 -- 178},
  year      = {2014},
  abstract  = {We present the results of biogeochemical and mineralogical analyses on a sediment core that covers the Holocene sedimentation history of the climatically sensitive, closed, saline, and alkaline Lonar Lake in the core monsoon zone in central India. We compare our results of C/N ratios, stable carbon and nitrogen isotopes, grain-size, as well as amino acid derived degradation proxies with climatically sensitive proxies of other records from South Asia and the North Atlantic region. The comparison reveals some more or less contemporaneous climate shifts. At Lonar Lake, a general long term climate transition from wet conditions during the early Holocene to drier conditions during the late Holocene, delineating the insolation curve, can be reconstructed. In addition to the previously identified periods of prolonged drought during 4.6-3.9 and 2.0-0.6 cal ka that have been attributed to temperature changes in the Indo Pacific Warm Pool, several additional phases of shorter term climate alteration superimposed upon the general climate trend can be identified. These correlate with cold phases in the North Atlantic region. The most pronounced climate deteriorations indicated by our data occurred during 62-5.2,4.6-3.9, and 2.0-0.6 cal ka BP. The strong dry phase between 4.6 and 3.9 cal ka BP at Lonar Lake corroborates the hypothesis that severe climate deterioration contributed to the decline of the Indus Civilisation about 3.9 ka BP. (C) 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.},
  language  = {en}
}