@phdthesis{Braun2023,
  author    = {Braun, Tobias},
  title     = {Recurrences in past climates},
  doi       = {10.25932/publishup-58690},
  url       = {http://nbn-resolving.de/urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-586900},
  school      = {Universit{\"a}t Potsdam},
  pages     = {xxviii, 251},
  year      = {2023},
  abstract  = {Our ability to predict the state of a system relies on its tendency to recur to states it has visited before. Recurrence also pervades common intuitions about the systems we are most familiar with: daily routines, social rituals and the return of the seasons are just a few relatable examples. To this end, recurrence plots (RP) provide a systematic framework to quantify the recurrence of states. Despite their conceptual simplicity, they are a versatile tool in the study of observational data. The global climate is a complex system for which an understanding based on observational data is not only of academical relevance, but vital for the predurance of human societies within the planetary boundaries. Contextualizing current global climate change, however, requires observational data far beyond the instrumental period. The palaeoclimate record offers a valuable archive of proxy data but demands methodological approaches that adequately address its complexities. In this regard, the following dissertation aims at devising novel and further developing existing methods in the framework of recurrence analysis (RA). The proposed research questions focus on using RA to capture scale-dependent properties in nonlinear time series and tailoring recurrence quantification analysis (RQA) to characterize seasonal variability in palaeoclimate records ('Palaeoseasonality'). In the first part of this thesis, we focus on the methodological development of novel approaches in RA. The predictability of nonlinear (palaeo)climate time series is limited by abrupt transitions between regimes that exhibit entirely different dynamical complexity (e.g. crossing of 'tipping points'). These possibly depend on characteristic time scales. RPs are well-established for detecting transitions and capture scale-dependencies, yet few approaches have combined both aspects. We apply existing concepts from the study of self-similar textures to RPs to detect abrupt transitions, considering the most relevant time scales. This combination of methods further results in the definition of a novel recurrence based nonlinear dependence measure. Quantifying lagged interactions between multiple variables is a common problem, especially in the characterization of high-dimensional complex systems. The proposed 'recurrence flow' measure of nonlinear dependence offers an elegant way to characterize such couplings. For spatially extended complex systems, the coupled dynamics of local variables result in the emergence of spatial patterns. These patterns tend to recur in time. Based on this observation, we propose a novel method that entails dynamically distinct regimes of atmospheric circulation based on their recurrent spatial patterns. Bridging the two parts of this dissertation, we next turn to methodological advances of RA for the study of Palaeoseasonality. Observational series of palaeoclimate 'proxy' records involve inherent limitations, such as irregular temporal sampling. We reveal biases in the RQA of time series with a non-stationary sampling rate and propose a correction scheme. In the second part of this thesis, we proceed with applications in Palaeoseasonality. A review of common and promising time series analysis methods shows that numerous valuable tools exist, but their sound application requires adaptions to archive-specific limitations and consolidating transdisciplinary knowledge. Next, we study stalagmite proxy records from the Central Pacific as sensitive recorders of mid-Holocene El Ni{\~n}o-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) dynamics. The records' remarkably high temporal resolution allows to draw links between ENSO and seasonal dynamics, quantified by RA. The final study presented here examines how seasonal predictability could play a role for the stability of agricultural societies. The Classic Maya underwent a period of sociopolitical disintegration that has been linked to drought events. Based on seasonally resolved stable isotope records from Yok Balum cave in Belize, we propose a measure of seasonal predictability. It unveils the potential role declining seasonal predictability could have played in destabilizing agricultural and sociopolitical systems of Classic Maya populations. The methodological approaches and applications presented in this work reveal multiple exciting future research avenues, both for RA and the study of Palaeoseasonality.},
  language  = {en}
}
@phdthesis{Marwan2019,
  author    = {Marwan, Norbert},
  title     = {Recurrence plot techniques for the investigation of recurring phenomena in the system earth},
  isbn      = {978-3-00-064508-2},
  doi       = {10.25932/publishup-44197},
  url       = {http://nbn-resolving.de/urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-441973},
  school      = {Universit{\"a}t Potsdam},
  pages     = {ix, 254},
  year      = {2019},
  abstract  = {The habilitation deals with the numerical analysis of the recurrence properties of geological and climatic processes. The recurrence of states of dynamical processes can be analysed with recurrence plots and various recurrence quantification options. In the present work, the meaning of the structures and information contained in recurrence plots are examined and described. New developments have led to extensions that can be used to describe the recurring patterns in both space and time. Other important developments include recurrence plot-based approaches to identify abrupt changes in the system's dynamics, to detect and investigate external influences on the dynamics of a system, the couplings between different systems, as well as a combination of recurrence plots with the methodology of complex networks. Typical problems in geoscientific data analysis, such as irregular sampling and uncertainties, are tackled by specific modifications and additions. The development of a significance test allows the statistical evaluation of quantitative recurrence analysis, especially for the identification of dynamical transitions. Finally, an overview of typical pitfalls that can occur when applying recurrence-based methods is given and guidelines on how to avoid such pitfalls are discussed. In addition to the methodological aspects, the application potential especially for geoscientific research questions is discussed, such as the identification and analysis of transitions in past climates, the study of the influence of external factors to ecological or climatic systems, or the analysis of landuse dynamics based on remote sensing data.},
  language  = {en}
}
@phdthesis{Draeger2016,
  author    = {Dr{\"a}ger, Nadine},
  title     = {Holocene climate and environmental variability in NE Germany inferred from annually laminated lake sediments},
  url       = {http://nbn-resolving.de/urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-103037},
  school      = {Universit{\"a}t Potsdam},
  pages     = {xv, 144 Seiten},
  year      = {2016},
  abstract  = {Understanding the role of natural climate variability under the pressure of human induced changes of climate and landscapes, is crucial to improve future projections and adaption strategies. This doctoral thesis aims to reconstruct Holocene climate and environmental changes in NE Germany based on annually laminated lake sediments. The work contributes to the ICLEA project (Integrated CLimate and Landscape Evolution Analyses). ICLEA intends to compare multiple high-resolution proxy records with independent chronologies from the N central European lowlands, in order to disentangle the impact of climate change and human land use on landscape development during the Lateglacial and Holocene. In this respect, two study sites in NE Germany are investigated in this doctoral project, Lake Tiefer See and palaeolake Wukenfurche. While both sediment records are studied with a combination of high-resolution sediment microfacies and geochemical analyses (e.g. µ-XRF, carbon geochemistry and stable isotopes), detailed proxy understanding mainly focused on the continuous 7.7 m long sediment core from Lake Tiefer See covering the last ~6000 years. Three main objectives are pursued at Lake Tiefer See: (1) to perform a reliable and independent chronology, (2) to establish microfacies and geochemical proxies as indicators for climate and environmental changes, and (3) to trace the effects of climate variability and human activity on sediment deposition. Addressing the first aim, a reliable chronology of Lake Tiefer See is compiled by using a multiple-dating concept. Varve counting and tephra findings form the chronological framework for the last ~6000 years. The good agreement with independent radiocarbon dates of terrestrial plant remains verifies the robustness of the age model. The resulting reliable and independent chronology of Lake Tiefer See and, additionally, the identification of nine tephras provide a valuable base for detailed comparison and synchronization of the Lake Tiefer See data set with other climate records. The sediment profile of Lake Tiefer See exhibits striking alternations between well-varved and non-varved sediment intervals. The combination of microfacies, geochemical and microfossil (i.e. Cladocera and diatom) analyses indicates that these changes of varve preservation are caused by variations of lake circulation in Lake Tiefer See. An exception is the well-varved sediment deposited since AD 1924, which is mainly influenced by human-induced lake eutrophication. Well-varved intervals before the 20th century are considered to reflect phases of reduced lake circulation and, consequently, stronger anoxic conditions. Instead, non-varved intervals indicate increased lake circulation in Lake Tiefer See, leading to more oxygenated conditions at the lake ground. Furthermore, lake circulation is not only influencing sediment deposition, but also geochemical processes in the lake. As, for example, the proxy meaning of δ13COM varies in time in response to changes of the oxygen regime in the lake hypolinion. During reduced lake circulation and stronger anoxic conditions δ13COM is influenced by microbial carbon cycling. In contrast, organic matter degradation controls δ13COM during phases of intensified lake circulation and more oxygenated conditions. The varve preservation indicates an increasing trend of lake circulation at Lake Tiefer See after ~4000 cal a BP. This trend is superimposed by decadal to centennial scale variability of lake circulation intensity. Comparison to other records in Central Europe suggests that the long-term trend is probably related to gradual changes in Northern Hemisphere orbital forcing, which induced colder and windier conditions in Central Europe and, therefore, reinforced lake circulation. Decadal to centennial scale periods of increased lake circulation coincide with settlement phases at Lake Tiefer See, as inferred from pollen data of the same sediment record. Deforestation reduced the wind shelter of the lake, which probably increased the sensitivity of lake circulation to wind stress. However, results of this thesis also suggest that several of these phases of increased lake circulation are additionally reinforced by climate changes. A first indication is provided by the comparison to the Baltic Sea record, which shows striking correspondence between major non-varved intervals at Lake Tiefer See and bioturbated sediments in the Baltic Sea. Furthermore, a preliminary comparison to the ICLEA study site Lake Czechowskie (N central Poland) shows a coincidence of at least three phases of increased lake circulation in both lakes, which concur with periods of known climate changes (2.8 ka event, 'Migration Period' and 'Little Ice Age'). These results suggest an additional over-regional climate forcing also on short term increased of lake circulation in Lake Tiefer See. In summary, the results of this thesis suggest that lake circulation at Lake Tiefer See is driven by a combination of long-term and short-term climate changes as well as of anthropogenic deforestation phases. Furthermore, the lake circulation drives geochemical cycles in the lake affecting the meaning of proxy data. Therefore, the work presented here expands the knowledge of climate and environmental variability in NE Germany. Furthermore, the integration of the Lake Tiefer See multi-proxy record in a regional comparison with another ICLEA side, Lake Czechowskie, enabled to better decipher climate changes and human impact on the lake system. These first results suggest a huge potential for further detailed regional comparisons to better understand palaeoclimate dynamics in N central Europe.},
  language  = {en}
}
@phdthesis{Neugebauer2015,
  author    = {Neugebauer, Ina},
  title     = {Reconstructing climate from the Dead Sea sediment record using high-resolution micro-facies analyses},
  series = {Dissertation},
  journal   = {Dissertation},
  url       = {http://nbn-resolving.de/urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-85266},
  school      = {Universit{\"a}t Potsdam},
  pages     = {xiv, 97, XXIII},
  year      = {2015},
  abstract  = {The sedimentary record of the Dead Sea is a key archive for reconstructing climate in the eastern Mediterranean region, as it stores the environmental and tectonic history of the Levant for the entire Quaternary. Moreover, the lake is located at the boundary between Mediterranean sub-humid to semi-arid and Saharo-Arabian hyper-arid climates, so that even small shifts in atmospheric circulation are sensitively recorded in the sediments. This DFG-funded doctoral project was carried out within the ICDP Dead Sea Deep Drilling Project (DSDDP) that intended to gain the first long, continuous and high-resolution sediment core from the deep Dead Sea basin. The drilling campaign was performed in winter 2010-11 and more than 700 m of sediments were recovered. The main aim of this thesis was (1) to establish the lithostratigraphic framework for the ~455 m long sediment core from the deep Dead Sea basin and (2) to apply high-resolution micro-facies analyses for reconstructing and better understanding climate variability from the Dead Sea sediments. Addressing the first aim, the sedimentary facies of the ~455 m long deep-basin core 5017-1 were described in great detail and characterised through continuous overview-XRF element scanning and magnetic susceptibility measurements. Three facies groups were classified: (1) the marl facies group, (2) the halite facies group and (3) a group involving different expressions of massive, graded and slumped deposits including coarse clastic detritus. Core 5017-1 encompasses a succession of four main lithological units. Based on first radiocarbon and U-Th ages and correlation of these units to on-shore stratigraphic sections, the record comprises the last ca 220 ka, i.e. the upper part of the Amora Formation (parts of or entire penultimate interglacial and glacial), the last interglacial Samra Fm. (~135-75 ka), the last glacial Lisan Fm. (~75-14 ka) and the Holocene Ze'elim Formation. A major advancement of this record is that, for the first time, also transitional intervals were recovered that are missing in the exposed formations and that can now be studied in great detail. Micro-facies analyses involve a combination of high-resolution microscopic thin section analysis and µXRF element scanning supported by magnetic susceptibility measurements. This approach allows identifying and characterising micro-facies types, detecting event layers and reconstructing past climate variability with up to seasonal resolution, given that the analysed sediments are annually laminated. Within this thesis, micro-facies analyses, supported by further sedimentological and geochemical analyses (grain size, X-ray diffraction, total organic carbon and calcium carbonate contents) and palynology, were applied for two time intervals: (1) The early last glacial period ~117-75 ka was investigated focusing on millennial-scale hydroclimatic variations and lake level changes recorded in the sediments. Thereby, distinguishing six different micro-facies types with distinct geochemical and sedimentological characteristics allowed estimating relative lake level and water balance changes of the lake. Comparison of the results to other records in the Mediterranean region suggests a close link of the hydroclimate in the Levant to North Atlantic and Mediterranean climates during the time of the build-up of Northern hemisphere ice sheets during the early last glacial period. (2) A mostly annually laminated late Holocene section (~3700-1700 cal yr BP) was analysed in unprecedented detail through a multi-proxy, inter-site correlation approach of a shallow-water core (DSEn) and its deep-basin counterpart (5017-1). Within this study, a ca 1500 years comprising time series of erosion and dust deposition events was established and anchored to the absolute time-scale through 14C dating and age modelling. A particular focus of this study was the characterisation of two dry periods, from ~3500 to 3300 and from ~3000 to 2400 cal yr BP, respectively. Thereby, a major outcome was the coincidence of the latter dry period with a period of moist and cold climate in Europe related to a Grand Solar Minimum around 2800 cal yr BP and an increase in flood events despite overall dry conditions in the Dead Sea region during that time. These contrasting climate signatures in Europe and at the Dead Sea were likely linked through complex teleconnections of atmospheric circulation, causing a change in synoptic weather patterns in the eastern Mediterranean. In summary, within this doctorate the lithostratigraphic framework of a unique long sediment core from the deep Dead Sea basin is established, which serves as a base for any further high-resolution investigations on this core. It is demonstrated in two case studies that micro-facies analyses are an invaluable tool to understand the depositional processes in the Dead Sea and to decipher past climate variability in the Levant on millennial to seasonal time-scales. Hence, this work adds important knowledge helping to establish the deep Dead Sea record as a key climate archive of supra-regional significance.},
  language  = {en}
}
@phdthesis{Lauterbach2011,
  author    = {Lauterbach, Stefan},
  title     = {Lateglacial to Holocene climatic and environmental changes in Europe : multi-proxy studies on lake sediments along a transect from northern Italy to northeastern Poland},
  url       = {http://nbn-resolving.de/urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus-58157},
  school      = {Universit{\"a}t Potsdam},
  year      = {2011},
  abstract  = {Sediment records of three European lakes were investigated in order to reconstruct the regional climate development during the Lateglacial and Holocene, to investigate the response of local ecosystems to climatic fluctuations and human impact and to relate regional peculiarities of past climate development to climatic changes on a larger spatial scale. The Lake Hańcza (NE Poland) sediment record was studied with a focus on reconstructing the early Holocene climate development and identifying possible differences to Western Europe. Following the initial Holocene climatic improvement, a further climatic improvement occurred between 10 000 and 9000 cal. a BP. Apparently, relatively cold and dry climate conditions persisted in NE Poland during the first ca. 1500 years of the Holocene, most likely due to a specific regional atmospheric circulation pattern. Prevailing anticyclonic circulation linked to a high-pressure cell above the remaining Scandinavian Ice Sheet (SIS) might have blocked the eastward propagation of warm and moist Westerlies and thus attenuated the early Holocene climatic amelioration in this region until the final decay of the SIS, a pattern different from climate development in Western Europe. The Lateglacial sediment record of Lake Mondsee (Upper Austria) was investigated in order to study the regional climate development and the environmental response to rapid climatic fluctuations. While the temperature rise and environmental response at the onset of the Holocene took place quasi-synchronously, major leads and lags in proxy responses characterize the onset of the Lateglacial Interstadial. In particular, the spread of coniferous woodlands and the reduction of detrital flux lagged the initial Lateglacial warming by ca. 500-750 years. Major cooling at the onset of the Younger Dryas took place synchronously with a change in vegetation, while the increase of detrital matter flux was delayed by about 150-300 years. Complex proxy responses are also detected for short-term Lateglacial climatic fluctuations. In summary, periods of abrupt climatic changes are characterized by complex and temporally variable proxy responses, mainly controlled by ecosystem inertia and the environmental preconditions. A second study on the Lake Mondsee sediment record focused on two small-scale climate deteriorations around 8200 and 9100 cal. a BP, which have been triggered by freshwater discharges to the North Atlantic, causing a shutdown of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (MOC). Combining microscopic varve counting and AMS 14C dating yielded a precise duration estimate (ca. 150 years) and absolute dating of the 8.2 ka cold event, both being in good agreement with results from other palaeoclimate records. Moreover, a sudden temperature overshoot after the 8.2 ka cold event was identified, also seen in other proxy records around the North Atlantic. This was most likely caused by enhanced resumption of the MOC, which also initiated substantial shifts of oceanic and atmospheric front systems. Although there is also evidence from other proxy records for pronounced recovery of the MOC and atmospheric circulation changes after the 9.1 ka cold event, no temperature overshoot is seen in the Lake Mondsee record, indicating the complex behaviour of the global climate system. The Holocene sediment record of Lake Iseo (northern Italy) was studied to shed light on regional earthquake activity and the influence of climate variability and anthropogenic impact on catchment erosion and detrital flux into the lake. Frequent small-scale detrital layers within the sediments reflect allochthonous sediment supply by extreme surface runoff events. During the early to mid-Holocene, increased detrital flux coincides with periods of cold and wet climate conditions, thus apparently being mainly controlled by climate variability. In contrast, intervals of high detrital flux during the late Holocene partly also correlate with phases of increased human impact, reflecting the complex influences on catchment erosion processes. Five large-scale event layers within the sediments, which are composed of mass-wasting deposits and turbidites, are supposed to have been triggered by strong local earthquakes. While the uppermost of these event layers is assigned to a documented adjacent earthquake in AD 1222, the four other layers are supposed to be related to previously undocumented prehistorical earthquakes.},
  language  = {en}
}
@phdthesis{Kristen2009,
  author    = {Kristen, Iris},
  title     = {Investigations on rainfall variability during the late Quaternary based on geochemical analyses of lake sediments from tropical and subtropical southern Africa},
  url       = {http://nbn-resolving.de/urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus-32547},
  school      = {Universit{\"a}t Potsdam},
  year      = {2009},
  abstract  = {This thesis presents investigations on sediments from two African lakes which have been recording changes in their surrounding environmental and climate conditions since more than 200,000 years. Focus of this work is the time of the last Glacial and the Holocene (the last ~100,000 years before present [in the following 100 kyr BP]). One important precondition for this kind of research is a good understanding of the present ecosystems in and around the lakes and of the sediment formation under modern climate conditions. Both studies therefore include investigations on the modern environment (including organisms, soils, rocks, lake water and sediments). A 90 m long sediment sequence was investigated from Lake Tswaing (north-eastern South Africa) using geochemical analyses. These investigations document alternating periods of high detrital input and low (especially autochthonous) organic matter content and periods of low detrital input, carbonatic or evaporitic sedimentation and high autochthonous organic matter content. These alternations are interpreted as changes between relatively humid and arid conditions, respectively. Before c. 75 kyr BP, they seem to follow changes in local insolation whereas afterwards they appear to be acyclic and are probably caused by changes in ocean circulation and/or in the mean position of the Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ). Today, these factors have main influence on precipitation in this area where rainfall occurs almost exclusively during austral summer. All modern organisms were analysed for their biomarker and bulk organic and compound-specific stable carbon isotope composition. The same investigations on sediments from the modern lake floor document the mixed input of the investigated individual organisms and reveal additional influences by methanotrophic bacteria. A comparison of modern sediment characteristics with those of sediments covering the time 14 to 2 kyr BP shows changes in the productivity of the lake and the surrounding vegetation which are best explained by changes in hydrology. More humid conditions are indicated for times older than 10 kyr BP and younger than 7.5 kyr BP, whereas arid conditions prevailed in between. These observations agree with the results from sediment composition and indications from other climate archives nearby. The second lake study deals with Lake Challa, a small, deep crater lake on the foot of Mount Kilimanjaro. In this lake form mm-scale laminated sediments which were analyses with micro-XRF scanning for changes in the element composition. By comparing these results with investigations on thin sections, results from ongoing sediment trap studies, meteorological data, and investigations on the surrounding rocks and soils, I develop a model for seasonal variability in the limnology and sedimentation of Lake Challa. The lake appears to be stratified during the warm rain seasons (October - December and March - May) during which detrital material is delivered to the lake and carbonates precipitate. On the lake floor forms a dark lamina with high contents of Fe and Ti and high Ca/Al and low Mn/Fe ratios. Diatoms bloom during the cool and windy season (June - September) when mixing down to c. 60 m depth provides easily bio-available nutrients. Contemporaneously, Fe and Mn-oxides are precipitating which cause high Mn/Fe ratios in the light diatom-rich laminae of the sediments. Trends in the Mn/Fe ratio of the sediments are interpreted to reflect changes in the intensity or duration of seasonal mixing in Lake Challa. This interpretation is supported by parallel changes in the organic matter and biogenic silica content observed in the 22 m long profile recovered from Lake Challa. This covers the time of the last 25 kyr BP. It documents a transition around 16 kyr BP from relatively well-mixed conditions with high detrital input during glacial times to stronger stratified conditions which are probably related to increasing lake levels in Challa and generally more humid conditions in East Africa. Intensified mixing is recorded for the time of the Younger Dryas and the period between 11.4 and 10.7 kyr BP. For these periods, reduced intensity of the SW monsoon and intensified NE monsoon are reported from archives of the Indian-Asian Monsoon region, arguing for the latter as a probable source for wind mixing in Lake Challa. This connection is probably also responsible for contemporaneous events in the Mn/Fe ratios of the Lake Challa sediments and in other records of northern hemisphere monsoon intensity during the Holocene and underlines the close interaction of global low latitude atmospheric circulation.},
  language  = {en}
}